Year 2003: Priorities, Results and Outlook
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- Mervyn Ford
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1 DISCLAIMER The information contained in this document has been provided by Iberia. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made by Iberia as to the accuracy or completeness of any such information, and nothing contained in this document is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise or representation by Iberia. In particular, this analysts' presentation contains statements that constitute forward-looking statements and information relating to the activities of Iberia that are based on the beliefs of Iberia's management as well as assumptions based on information available to Iberia. Such statements reflect the current view of Iberia or its management with respect to future events. They are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Many factors could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Iberia to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements of Iberia that may be expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Analysts are cautioned not to place undue reliance on those forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. Iberia does not intend, and does not assume any obligation, to update forward-looking statements set out in this document. -1-
2 Year 2003: Priorities, Results and Outlook
3 Priorities
4 2003 A very Difficult Year for the Airline Business Causes Impact in the sector Impact in Iberia Economic crisis Fall in traffic Weakness on European yields War in Iraq SARS High fuel prices Fall in traffic Limited effect due to hedging policy No impact Depreciation of the dollar Exchange effect Net positive impact on cost and interest rates -4-
5 Iberia s Reaction Strategic First year of execution of the Director Plan Tactical Capacity adjustment Cost control Implementation of new revenue management model -5-
6 1st Year of Execution of the Director Plan Reduction of travel Started in 2002 agencies commissions 2nd step agreement valid 2004/06 Productivity improvements Ground (without handling) +2.7% Flight attendants +3.9% Pilots +1.4% New on board service model First phase July 2003 Second phase 2004 Intensification of co-operation with BA. Anti Trust Immunity implementation process: Foreseen approval in
7 January-September 2003
8 Capacity Adjustment January-September ASK RPK L.F. Domestic 0.4% 3.0% 1.8 p.p. Europe 0.6% -1.2% -1.2 p.p. Long Haul -1.9% 2.4% 3.4 p.p. Total -0.7% 1.6% 1.7 p.p. Implementing additional operational flexibility in the long range fleet Delaying deliveries of new planes Linking lease rents to utilisation -8-
9 Operating Revenues January-September 2003/2002 Total Operating Revenues -3.2% Passenger revenues -6.2% Cargo revenues -4.5% Handling +16.6% Maintenance +22.0% Commercial +14.3% Others +11.7% Revenue / ASK -2.5% -9-
10 Operating Costs January-September 2003/2002 Total Operating Costs -0.5% Personnel Costs +3.0% Commercial Costs -12.6% Fuel Costs +4.0% Aircraft Rentals + Amortisations -3.9% On-board Service -22.3% Insurance -40.5% Navigation Aids + Traffic Charges +4.0% Cost / ASK 0.2% -10-
11 Unit Cost Evolution 03/02 Cost / ASK Q1 +4.4% Q2-0.4% Q3-3.7% -11-
12 Positive Results January-September 2003 Revenues 3,443 Ebitdar Ebitdar Margin 15.5% EBIT Ordinary Results Net Income Data in million -12-
13 Outlook 2003
14 Outlook! We expect a slight improvement in the revenue trend in the last quarter! The actions already implemented will produce a cost reduction in the last quarter of the year that will allow unit costs to be lower with respect to last year! Our Cash Flow and Balance Sheet position will remain strong for the rest of the year EBITDAR Margin will be above 14% Results from Ordinary Activities will be around 150 MM/Euro -14-
15 Competitive Environment: Markets
16 Good Load Factor and Traffic Performance in 2003
17 Capacity Adjustment has produced High LF Best performance among European peers Variation 2003/2003 ASK s (%) LF (p.p.) LF in 2003 Jul-Sep Jul-Sep Jul-Sep Air France British Airways Iberia KLM Lufthansa SAS Source: Official press releases -17-
18 Iberia is meeting the Challenge of Lower Unit Revenues Evolution of Unit Revenues First Half ,0-2,0 (%) Change vs ,0-6,0-8,0-10,0-12,0-14,0-16,0-18,0-20,0 Air France British Airways Iberia KLM Lufthansa SAS Ryanair Yields Passenger Revenues/ASK Source: Interim reprots, own calculation Ryanair yield refers to rev. per PAX and Rev/ASK to rev. per seat -18-
19 Steady Improvement during 2003 Iberia Operating Data Q 2Q 3Q Domestic LF LF variation (p.p.) Growth ASK, % Europe LF LF variation (p.p.) Growth ASK, % Latin America LF LF variation (p.p.) Growth ASK, % Iberia already started to restore capacity during the third quarter -19-
20 Market Trends already show Improvement Evolution of Key Markets (Nov-02 to Sep-03) 20 Passenger growth (%) nov dic ene feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep Domestic Spain-Europe Europe-Latin America Source: AENA (Domestic and Spain-Europe) Adjusted MIDT s (Europe-Latin America) -20-
21 Capacity Management is responding to Market Trends 14 Iberia Capacity Evolution (ASKs) 12 % change vs prior year H03 3Q03 4Q Domestic Europe Latin America Total -21-
22 Domestic Market: Focus on Profits
23 Sustainable Profitability in the Domestic Market Change p.p. Jan-Sep Jan-Sep Iberia domestic marketshare 58.5% 56.9% -1.6 Mainland-Islands 43.9% 39.8% -4.1 Rest 66.3% 66.5% +0.2 Increase in revenue per ASK : 9.3% Domestic premium marketshare 2002: 84.3% Source: AENA Network rationalization of late 2001 has led to stable profit improvement Preventive introduction of the new domestic fare structure in April
24 Latin America: Leadership and Profitability
25 Market Leader between Europe and Latin America Marketshare Iberia (%) change 01/03 Jan-Sep (p.p.) Total traffic Business Capacity and LF ASK growth (%) na LF (%) Source: MIDT s Sustaining improvement in the business segment to boost profitability -25-
26 The Southern Tip of South America is booming % change vs prior year Iberia traffic performance in selected South American markets Jul - Oct jul aug sep 1-20 oct(*) jul aug sep 1-20 oct(*) jul Argentina Brazil ask % rpk % aug Chile sep 1-20 oct(*) -26-
27 Europe: Reversing the LCC Threat
28 The LCC s are already here Spain has high exposure to LCC s: third market in Europe after the UK and Italy (First if charter activity is included) LCC penetration (*) as of October 2003 UK 33.5 Italy 22.5 Spain 21.5 France 13.0 Germany 9.9 (*) Percentage of seats offered by LCC in international links with the rest of Europe Source: OAG MAX Oct
29 LCC s are capturing Traffic mostly from Former Charter Activity From 2001 to 2003 Iberia has gained 0.2 percentage points of market share in the total traffic between Spain and Europe In the same period Low Cost Carriers have increased their market share by 6 percentage points Charter carriers have reduced market share by 5.1 percentage points -29-
30 Network Carrier Advantages! Hub-and-spoke economies of scale! Established customer base! Product differentiation Nº Pax Jan-Jul 03 Iberia: Connectivity by sector % % 52.6% 0 Long Haul Europe Domestic Local European connections Domestic connections Long Haul connections -30-
31 Outlook for 2004
32 Better Economic Environment in Iberia Key Markets Higher GDP forecasts in Spain and Latin America: 2002 Real 2003 Estimated 2004 Forecast Spain European Union Latin America USA
33 Iberia is ready to grow again in 2004! Stability at the domestic market! Recover growth path in Europe! Improve market share in Latin America Capacity growth 2004/2003 Domestic Europe Long haul Percent increase in ASK s Total Iberia 8.0 Estimated passenger growth in October 03 --European sector-- is 9% -33-
34 Risk Management, Flexibility and Value Creation
35 Management of Non Operating Risks
36 Volatility in Airlines Industry! Airlines Stock Volatility: 30%! Utilities Stock Volatility: 13.5% 17,00% 7,00% -3,00% Monthly yield -13,00% -23,00% -33,00% MSCI Airlines MSCI Utilities -36- ago-98 nov-98 feb-99 may-99 ago-99 nov-99 feb-00 may-00 ago-00 nov-00 feb-01 may-01 ago-01 nov-01 feb-02 may-02 ago-02 nov-02 feb-03 may-03 Stock prices index by Morgan Stanley
37 Hedging Program ( ) Currency risk: structural short position of USD 500 million approx! Strategic: up to 50% of net position, swap lease rentals from USD to EUR/CHF/GBP! Tactical: flexible insurance collar, seagull and forward agreements Interest rate risk! Increase fixed/protective debt portion to a maximum of 70%/80% of the total debt, taking advantage of the historic low interest rate levels Jet fuel! Strategic: hedging 50% of the consumption at Director Plan reference! Tactical: hedging up to an additional 30% -37-
38 Frequency Iberia Distribution of Net Earnings after Hedging Program Likelihood of getting a reduction in Net Earnings higher than 42 M Eur has now been reduced to 15% 12% Average Risk: EUR 66 Million % 10% 8% 6% 4% 15% 2% 0% NET EARNINGS (Million of EUR) -38-
39 Flexibility and Capacity Management
40 Flexibility and Ownership Cost Optimization Options to Return (number of aircraft) % Operating Leases Period Period Long Range Fleet A % 4 8 A % 0 0 B /300 35% 3 3 Total Long Range Fleet 95% 7 11 Short/Medium Range Fleet A319/320/321 80% 7 23 B757 95% 16 0 MD 87/88 15% 6 0 Total Short/Medium Range Fleet 65% Grand Total 70% Opportunities to benefit from price reductions in brand new and second hand market Flexibility to move towards more efficient fleet mix -40-
41 Ownership Cost and Value Creation
42 Cost of Debt in Iberia June 2001 June 2002 June 2003 On balance sheet debt 5.56% 3.72% 3.02% Off balance sheet debt 5.01% 3.33% 2.58% Total debt 5.28% 3.42% 2.67% Short term investments ( 4.57% ) ( 3.52% ) ( 2.43% ) Total net debt 5.46% 3.31% 2.70% IBERIA has substantially decreased its cost of financing, which reflects in the lowest ownership cost of the sector -42-
43 Comparative Analysis Financial Strength Source: Companies annual reports, analysts estimations Adjusted Net Gearing x Adjusted Net debt/ebitdar IBERIA: One of the stronger financial positions 8, , KLM 02/03 BA 02/03 with pension funds deficit BA 02/03 ADJUSTED NET DEBT / EBITDAR Adjusted Net debt/ebitdar 6, , , , , IB 2003E IB 2005E AF 02/03 IB 2002 AZ , LH 2002 with pension funds deficit 0, LH , , , , , , , , , , , Adjusted Net Gearing ADJUSTED NET GEARING -43-
44 Comparative Analysis IBERIA: EBITDAR/RPK One ofx the OWNERSHIP/ASK lower ownership cost Source: Companies annual reports, analysts estimations LF=73% 0,015 WORST PRACTICES LF (Average break-even load factor for the sample) LH 2002 A F 02/03 OWNERSHIP OWNERSHIP/ASK COST / ASK 0,013 0,011 0,009 B A 02/03 IB 2002 BEST PRACTICES EasyJet 2002 (*) IB 2002 :ownership costs : -20% R yanair 02/ 03 0,007 0,005 0,01 0,02 0,02 0,03 0,03 EBITDAR/RPK -44-
45 Comparative Analysis IBERIA: EBITDAR/RPK One ofx the OWNERSHIP/ASK lower ownership cost Source: Companies annual reports, analysts estimations LF=73% 0,015 WORST PRACTICES A F 03/04E LF (Average break-even load factor for the sample) LH 2003E OWNERSHIP OWNERSHIP/ASK COST / ASK 0,013 0,011 0,009 B A 03/04E IB 2003E BEST PRACTICES 0,007 EasyJet 2003E IB 2003E ownership co sts : -20% R yanair 03/04E 0,005 0,01 0,02 0,02 0,03 0,03 EBITDAR/RPK -45-
46 Comparative Analysis EBITDAR/RPK x OWNERSHIP/ASK IBERIA: One of the lower ownership cost Source: Companies annual reports, analysts estimations LF=73% 0,015 WORST PRACTICES A F 03/04E LF (Average break-even load factor for the sample) LH 2002 LH 2003E AF 02/03 OWNERSHIP OWNERSHIP/ASK COST / ASK 0,013 0,011 0,009 B A 03/04E IB 2003E IB 2003E B A 02/03 IB 2002 BEST PRACTICES EasyJet ,007 EasyJet 2003E IB 2003E ownership co sts : -20% (*) IB 2002 :ownership co sts : -20% R yanair 02/03 R yanair 03/04E 0,005 0,01 0,02 0,02 0,03 0,03 (*) Densification equivalent to the one applied by low cost carriers EBITDAR/RPK -46-
47 Value Creation IBERIA: Adjusted Creating EBIT margin valuex for Asset shareholders Turn = Adjusted in ROCE 2002 and 2003 Source: Companies annual reports, analysts estimations 13 1,9 % 12 1,9 % IB 2002 LH ,0 % POSITIVE Value VALUE Creation CREATION R yanair 02/03 111,9 % ASSET Asset TURN Turn 10 1,9 % A F 02/03 2,3% VALUE Value DESTRUCTION Destruction 91,9% B A 02/03 81,9% IB WACC = 6,5% EasyJet ,9 % -3,7% 1,3% 6,3% 11,3% 16,3% 21,3% 26,3% 31,3% ADJUSTED Adjusted EBIT EBIT margin MARGIN -47-
48 Director Plan Director Plan
49 Director Plan Director Plan December 02/January 03 Review of Director Plan May/June
50 Challenges and Opportunities for Iberia in Madrid and Barcelona Airport expansion ( ) Good positioning in costs compared to other network carriers and potential to improve them Competitive environment for Iberia Latin America: Take advantage of leadership position to benefit from growth potential of this region Madrid-Barcelona high speed train (AVE) to enter operation in
51 Acceleration of Changes in the Sector Weakness of European economies Socio-political factors: war in Iraq Lower traffic and higher fuel prices (Temporary) Growing competition of the Low Cost Carriers in Europe and new fare structure in the domestic market Delay of the high speed train Anticipation of new revenue model (Structural) Delay of the impact until 2005/
52 Strategic Objectives The Director Plan continues and strengthens the track record established by previous Director Plans TO GROW WITH FLEXIBILITY AND SERVICE QUALITY 1. Increase capacity to strengthen leadership positions at MAD/BCN 2. Maintain strategic operating and financial flexibility, to match growth rate to evolution of markets operated 3. Improve competitive positions via benefits of alliances 4. Redefine service model 5. Better service quality and closer relationship with high-value customers -52-
53 Strategic Objectives The Director Plan continues and strengthens the track record established by previous Director Plans TO FURTHER IMPROVE COMPETITIVENESS BY STRONG FOCUS ON UNIT COST REDUCTION 1. Implementation of new distribution strategy 2. Increase productivity of human resources 3. Pro-active risk and financial management 4. Efficient management of the portfolio of airline-related businesses -53-
54 Our New Air Transport Business Model Needs to Be Built on Three Main Lines Domestic/Europe/Long Haul Retain business traveller revenues Improve service and maintain price differential Domestic/Europe Defend point-to-point traffic Be competitive in costs Wide range of destinations and frequencies Europe/Long Haul Continue to efficiently provide connecting traffic to long haul routes Ensure connectivity of Madrid and Barcelona -54-
55 The Expansion in Madrid and Barcelona Will Allow Iberia s Growth Madrid and Barcelona are among the fastest growing airports in Europe Madrid expansion to 2007 Barcelona expansion to 2007 Mov./hour % Mov./hour % Capacity 2003 Planned Capacity growth (*) Capacity new runways 1 new terminal 0 Capacity 2003 Planned Capacity growth (*) new runway 1 new terminal Capacity 2007 (*) IB forecast -55-
56 Iberia Will Grow Taking Advantage of the Expansion Capacity of Madrid Hub 15 Domestic +1.3% +3.4% +4.6% Capacity 10 5 MM ASK s % +3,8% +11.7% +8.0% +1.5% Europe +1.5% +10.1% +17.3% P 2003E 2004E 2005E Long Haul +9.0% +1.6% +9.2%
57 Flexibility - Remains a Key Tool 170 Total Flexibility -18% Short/Medium haul Long Haul Flexibility -16% Flexibility -18% / /2005 Base case 12/2005 Oct-03 Flexibility case 12/2005 Jun-04 Flexibility case Non renewal of Operating Leases or non exercise of options Cancel new hiring of Wet Leases (starting in 2004) -57-
58 Adapting the Business Model of Iberia. New Products The short / medium haul economy product will be transformed: Unbundling the product The proposal offered to business traveller will continue to be enhanced Modifications to Service Model Short + Medium Haul Long Haul Migration to a pay as you go model Simplification in 2003 (1st phase) Introduction of pay-as-you-go in 2004 No change Redeployment of resources Improvement of passenger services Fast track services High quality meals Personalised passenger treatment (CRM) Introduction of Business First Entertainment on board Communications Flat Seats Economy Business -58-
59 Cost Differential Iberia-Low Cost Carriers Areas Identified Action plan under way Gap narrowing 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 32% 27% Productivity (Plane & Crew) Commercial & Distribution 24% In flight service 9% Maintenance 4% Overheads 4% Others 100% DIFFERENTIAL The Director Plan will narrow this differencial by 60% in 3 years -59-
60 Asset Utilisation MM/! Improvement of 0.8 Block Hours/ Day in medium haul aircraft through optimisation of slots and night aircraft utilisation! Optimisation of short/medium haul fleet : Increase number of seats per aircraft by 5% Additional measures! Accelerate the phase out of B ! Utilise financial tools will add flexibility in fleet incorporation! Optimisation of A Change of crew rest zone -60-
61 Personnel Productivity MM/ Productivity improvement and reduction of unit costs Director Plan targets:! Ground Staff Cost/ASK: 10-13%! Pilots Cost/Block Hour: 4-8%! Flight attendants Cost/Block Hour : 10-15% Some measures:! Reduction of flight attendants for short and medium flights! Reorganisation of regional offices! Crew Multilicences -61-
62 Commercial and Distribution Costs MM/ Reduction in distribution costs! New role of Travel Agencies! New role of direct channels! Increase corporate agreements under management fee! Implement program for small companies -62-
63 Reduction of Basic Travel Agencies Commissions in Spain 7,0% 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% 6,5% 3% 2% 1,5% 1% 2003 H H H H
64 New Customer Service MM/! CRM implementation! Improved on-board service in business class! Pay for meal service in medium/short haul tourist class -64-
65 New on Board Service in Medium Haul Tourist Class % 39% 14 % 47% 150 Mill E LONG HAUL SHORT AND MEDIUM HAUL BUSINESS SHORT AND MEDIUM HAUL TOURIST % TOURIST 2003 E REDUCTION TOURIST -65-
66 Other Costs MM/ Improvement in maintenance! Improve productivity! New Fleet! Purchasing policy! Increase third party revenues Reduction in other costs! Reduction in global purchasing costs! Overhead reduction -66-
67 Reducing Costs Asset utilisation Impact in 2005 MM/ Euro Director Plan Personnel costs Commercial costs Service on board Other costs Note: Targets of cost reductions over base case
68 Updating Our Plan - Accelerating Projects New implementation date Reduction of travel agencies commissions January 2004 Revision of the new Maintenance program impact 2003 New on board service model July 2003 Restructuring of foreign offices Improvement of ground and flight staff productivity
69 Summary
70 Iberia Net Results (Million ) ,2 89,6 318,7 153,1 201,2 50,2 159, ,
71 Profitability Evolution EBITDAR (million ) % EBITDAR Margin EBITDAR GENERATED % EBITDAR Margin -71-
72 Strong Balance Sheet 340 Net Financial Debt (Euro Mill.) Strong Cash Position September ,170 MM/ Euro
73 Vision of the Director Plan! Maintain our leadership position in the domestic and Europe-Latin America market Enhancing business class and maintaining connecting traffic Maintain the leadership in profitability among the European airlines! Develop competitive service and prices in Domestic and European point-to-point routes Redefining the service model in tourist class! Maintain a competitive cost base even with Low Cost Carriers Shareholder Value Creation! Maximise the value of the different airline related businesses -73-
74 Iberia, a Consistent Project! Seven consecutive years of of profits! Third Director Plan in in place! An experienced Management Team leading the company since
75 Our Objectives Remain Unchanged Unit Cost Director Plan 2005/ % Review 2005/ % EBITDAR margin ~ 19% ROE ~ 15% -75-
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