What is the safest means of transportation? An overview of online resources and what to make of them

Transcription

1 What is the safest means of transportation? An overview of online resources and what to make of them Rudy Pont 3-December-203

2 Table of contents About me... 2 What is the safest means of transportation?... 2 Aviation Safety - Worldwide... 3 ICAO... 3 Accident definition... 3 Actual figures... 3 IATA... 5 Accident definition... 5 Hull loss definition... 5 Actual figures... 5 GSIE Harmonized Accident Rate... 6 Boeing statistical sumary... 7 Scope... 7 Accident definition... 7 Actual figures... 8 Aviation Safety Network... 0 Accident definition... 0 Actual figures... 0 Ascend - FlightGlobal... EASA... 2 Aviation Safety Europe... 3 Conclusion on Aviation Safety... 4 Road safety... 5 United States/Global... 5 Europe... 5 Pedestrians, cyclists and users of motorized two-wheelers... 6 Railroad safety... 6 Maritime safety... 6 Conclusion... 7 Appendix: Infographics on global road safety 203 (WHO)... 8 References... 9 List of figures... 2 Chapter: About me

3 About me Acting as a Flight Safety Officer for Thomas Cook Airlines (Belgium), I have been involved in aviation safety since Combining my duties as an A320 First Officer with safety management gives me a unique insight in everyday safety issues. In order to keep up-to-date with the latest industry trends, I try to participate as much as possible in conferences, seminars, and other safety relevant meetings. Because EASA has set the deadline for Safety Management Systems (SMS) implementation to end of October 204, we are currently writing a Safety Management Manual (SMM), training people and putting everything in place to achieve an effective SMS. Every now and then, some interesting questions pop up during these training sessions. This paper is part of a collection which intends to provide more elaborate answers and additional references to these questions. What is the safest means of transportation? If you google this question, you probably end up with something like this: Flying is considered as the safest form of transport due to the fact that airplane accidents are less frequent. Statistics show that it is about twice as safe as train and six times safer than car transportation. However, when airplane accidents occur there is usually high fatalities. (Ask.com, 203) Unfortunately only a few of the article I found made actual references to factual data or relevant publications. So let s try to find them ourselves. Chapter: About me 2

4 Aviation Safety - Worldwide ICAO The first slide of our SMS training course is all about image and perception. Despite the extensive coverage of aircraft accidents, most people are still convinced that aviation remains the safest way to travel. But do the facts support this dogma? First of all let us take a look at the global level. Each year the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) publishes an annual Safety Report. This report takes into account all accidents as defined by ICAO Annex 3. Accident definition An occurrence associated with the operation of an aircraft which takes place between the time any person boards the aircraft with the intention of flight until such time as all such persons have disembarked, in which: a. a person is fatally or seriously injured as a result of: - being in the aircraft, or - direct contact with any part of the aircraft, including parts which have become detached from the aircraft, or - direct exposure to jet blast, except when the injuries are from natural causes, selfinflicted or inflicted by other persons, or when the injuries are to stowaways hiding outside the areas normally available to the passengers and crew; or b. the aircraft sustains damage or structural failure which: adversely affects the structural strength, performance or flight characteristics of the aircraft, and would normally require major repair or replacement of the affected component, except for engine failure or damage, when the damage is limited to the engine, its cowlings or accessories; or for damage limited to propellers, wing tips, antennas, tires, brakes, fairings, small dents or puncture holes in the aircraft skin; or c. the aircraft is missing or is completely inaccessible. Note. For statistical uniformity only, an injury resulting in death within thirty days of the date of the accident is classified as a fatal injury by ICAO. Note 2. An aircraft is considered to be missing when the official search has been terminated and the wreckage has not been located. (ICAO, 200) Actual figures The air transport system carried approximately 2.9 billion passengers in 202, up 5 per cent since 20. ( ) The number of accidents (as defined in ICAO Annex 3) decreased by 2 per cent and the global accident rate involving scheduled commercial operations for 202 has decreased significantly to 3.2 accidents per million departures. Compared to 20, the number of fatalities decreased by 0 per cent making 202 the safest year with regard to fatalities since (ICAO, 203) Chapter: Aviation Safety - Worldwide 3

5 Figure : ICAO Accident Records You don t need to have an IQ exceeding 30 to realize that flying isn t equally safe throughout the world. There are large variations between regions. While Africa accounted for only 5 per cent of total accidents, 45 per cent of all fatalities occurred in that region. Keep in mind though that with a such a good safety record in 202 only 9 fatal accidents worldwide! statistics are easily distorted. Figure 2: ICAO Accident statistics and rates 202 Chapter: Aviation Safety - Worldwide 4

6 IATA The International Air Transport Association (IATA) uses a different definition of what they consider to be an accident. Excluding business aviation, training and test flights they focus on the actual (non-)scheduled civil air transport, the calculated accident rate is only a fraction of ICAO s number. Accident definition IATA defines an accident as an event where ALL of the following criteria are satisfied: - Person(s) have boarded the aircraft with the intention of flight (either flight crew or passengers). - The intention of the flight is limited to normal commercial aviation activities, specifically scheduled/charter passenger or cargo service. Executive jet operations, training, maintenance/test flights are all excluded. - The aircraft is multi-engine, turbine powered, and has a certificated Maximum Take-Off Weight (MTOW) of at least 5,700KG (2,540 lbs) for Turboprops and 5,000KG (33,000 lbs) for Jets. - The aircraft has sustained major structural damage exceeding $ million or 0% of the aircraft's hull reserve value, whichever is lower, or has been declared a hull loss. (IATA, 203) Hull loss definition - A hull loss is an accident in which the aircraft is destroyed or substantially damaged and is not subsequently repaired for whatever reason including a financial decision of the owner. (IATA, 203) Figure 3: Western-built jet hull-loss rate per million sectors ( ) Actual figures As of 3 December 202, the industry rate is lower compared to 20 (0.20 vs. 0.37) - Western-built jet hull loss accident per 5 million flights (202) vs. per 2.7 million flights (20) - According to the 202 industry rate, if you were to take a flight every day, odds are you could go more 3,500 years without an accident (IATA, 203) Table : IATA fatal acident rate ( ) Chapter: Aviation Safety - Worldwide 5

7 GSIE Harmonized Accident Rate So what is it now? 3,2 (ICAO) or 0,2 (IATA) per million departures? Well apparently the people at ICAO and IATA agreed that it would be nice to have a single number for the worldwide aviation accident rate per year. In the spirit of promoting aviation safety, the Department of Transportation (DOT) of the United States, the Commission of the European Union, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and ICAO signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on a Global Safety Information Exchange (GSIE) on 28 September 200 during the 37th Session of the ICAO Assembly. ( )The GSIE developed a harmonized accident rate beginning in 20. This was accomplished through close cooperation between ICAO and IATA to align accident definitions, criteria and analysis methods used to calculate the harmonized rate, which is considered a key safety indicator for commercial aviation operations worldwide. (ICAO, 203) Note: Unfortunately I didn t find what actual definitions are used. Figure 4: GSIE Harmonized accident rate 202 Conclusion: as expected the GSIE working group ended up somewhere in the middle at 2,4 accidents per million departures. Chapter: Aviation Safety - Worldwide 6

8 Boeing statistical sumary As if having 3 numbers isn t enough, the Boeing company also publishes a renowned report. They tried to have their definition in line with ICAO and the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). Boeing only takes into-account Western built jet aircraft (see list below) and focusses on a 0 year period ( ) i.s.o. a yearly rate and distinguishes US and Canadian operators from the rest of the world. Scope The accident statistics presented in this summary are confined to worldwide commercial jet airplanes that are heavier than 60,000 pounds maximum gross weight. Within that set of airplanes, there are two groups excluded: ) Airplanes manufactured in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) or the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) are excluded because of the lack of operational data; and 2) Commercial airplanes operated in military service. (However, if a military-owned commercial jet transport is used for civilian commercial service, those data will be included in this summary.) The following airplanes are included in the statistics: 707/ A300 BAe 46 F-28 Concorde Comet DC-8 A Avro RJ-70/-85/-00 F-70 L-0 Trident 737 DC-9 A30 CRJ-700/-900/-000 F-00 BAC - Caravelle 747 DC-0/MD-0 A320/32/39/38 EMB-70/-75 Mercure 757 MD- A330 EMB-90/-95 CV-880/ MD-80/-90 A340 VC A Accident definition An occurrence associated with the operation of an airplane that takes place between the time any person boards the airplane with the intention of flight and such time as all such persons have disembarked, in which: a. The airplane sustains substantial damage, or b. The airplane is missing or is completely inaccessible, or c. Death or serious injury results from: Being in the airplane, or Direct contact with the airplane or anything attached thereto, or Direct exposure to jet blast. Excluding: - Fatal and nonfatal injuries from natural causes, and - Fatal and nonfatal self-infl icted injuries or injuries infl icted by other persons, and Chapter: Aviation Safety - Worldwide 7

9 - Fatal and nonfatal injuries of stowaways hiding outside the areas normally available to the passengers and crew, and - Nonfatal injuries resulting from atmospheric turbulence, normal maneuvering, loose objects, boarding, disembarking, evacuation, and maintenance and servicing, and - Nonfatal injuries to persons not aboard the airplane. The following occurrences are not considered airplane accidents those that are the result of experimental test flights or the result of a hostile action, including sabotage, hijacking, terrorism, and military action. Note: ( ) This publication excludes events that result in nonfatal injuries from atmospheric turbulence, normal maneuvering, etc.; nonfatal injuries to persons not aboard the airplane; and any events that result from an experimental test flight or from hostile action, such as sabotage, hijacking, terrorism, and military action. Actual figures Compared to the all-time low of 202 found by IATA (combined fatal and hull loss accidents) of 0,2 accidents per million flights. According to Boeing, the global 0 year average ( ) appears to be 0,35 (fatal) and 0,82 (hull loss) per million flights. Figure 5: 0-Year Accident Rates by Type of Operation (Boeing) Chapter: Aviation Safety - Worldwide 8

10 Figure 6: Accident Rates and Onboard fatalities by Year (Boeing) Boeing also presents figures by flight phase. With the rise in runway excursions and loss of control In Flight (LOC-I) over the last years it comes as no surprise that the majority of the accidents (4% of fatal accidents and 33% of on-board fatalities) happens during final approach and landing. Figure 7: Fatal Accidents and Onboard Fatalities by Phase of Flight (Boeing) Chapter: Aviation Safety - Worldwide 9

11 Aviation Safety Network The last resource I want to mention is the Aviation Safety Network (ASN). Although not an official authority, this database is considered a trustworthy source of information. Most of the information contained on the ASN is based on information from official sources (authorities, safety boards). Sources used as a basis for the accident database are aircraft production lists, ICAO Aircraft Accident Digests since 952, and NTSB, TSB etc. For a specific list of publications used, check out the references list. (Aviation Safety Network, 203) Accident definition ASN uses the ICAO Annex 3 definition (see page 3), but excludes corporate jets and takes into account only 4+ seat aircraft. Actual figures Most of the time we are speaking in terms of rates i.e. number of accidents divided by number of flights. This is logical, because absolute figures don t mean a lot. However it is interesting to see that there is a distinct downward trend during the last 20 years. Figure 8: Fatal airliner (4+ passengers) hull-loss accidents (ASN) Chapter: Aviation Safety - Worldwide 0

12 Ascend - FlightGlobal Another popular resource is Flight International Magazine. In their January 5th edition of 203 they quote: Flight International figures show there were 2 fatal airline accidents in 202, resulting in 425 fatalities. ( ) Flight International s comprehensive statistical methodology produces figures that vary slightly from other stories even if they tell the same story. They take into account all fatal airline accidents that involve Wester or Eastern-built aircraft, and also include aircraft of all weights, sizes and engine types, in both passenger and non-passenger airline operations. (Learmount, 203) Figure 9: Flights per fatal accident (FlightGlobal - Ascend) 202 was another good year for safety, with the fatal accident rate dropping from one to,4 million flights overall in 20 to one per 2,3 million flights in 202. [=0,43 per 0 6 ] (Learmount, 203) Figure 0: World airline fatala accidents and fatalities (FlightGlobal Ascend) Chapter: Aviation Safety - Worldwide

13 EASA Although EASA focusses on European matters, Chapter 2 of their EASA Annual Safety Review provides information on the worldwide fatal accident rate for aeroplanes with a maximum take-off mass above 2,250 kg, engaged in scheduled passenger or cargo operations. Acts of unlawful interference are not included in these figures. (EASA, 203) Figure : Nr/Rate per 0 million flights of sched. pax and cargo fatal accidents worldwide per year (EASA) Figure 2: Global distribution of fatal accidents worldwide (EASA) Chapter: Aviation Safety - Worldwide 2

14 Aviation Safety Europe Now that we have taken a look at the global picture, let s have a closer look at Europe. EASA s annual Safety Review 202 mentions: For Commercial Air Transport Aeroplanes between 200 and 200 there was an average of 25 accidents per year, including 3 fatal accidents per year. In 202 there were 34 accidents, of which was fatal. The fatality occurred when a ground operator was killed during aircraft loading. The most common type of accident is an abnormal runway contact while the most common type of fatal accident is a loss of control in flight. The report also states that 90 million passengers were carried in Europe. (EASA, 203) Figure 3: Total # Accidents, Fatal accidents & Fatalities for EASA MS Operated Aeroplanes MTOM>2250kg (EASA) Figure 4: Rate of Fatal accidents in EASA MS and 3rd country sched. passenger ops MTOM>2250kg (EASA) Chapter: Aviation Safety Europe 3

15 Conclusion on Aviation Safety The table below lists all data covered in this paper. If you want to know what the exact global accident rate is, take your pick. Nearly every source uses its own definition, causing the accident rates to vary with a factor 0! If you are looking for a truly global overview: take ICAO or GSIE. If you are interested only in Western-built aircraft, consider using the Boeing statistical summary. The IATA definition doesn t mention what aircraft types are included, however the report text states: Western-built jet hull loss accident per 5 million flights (202) (IATA, 203) which could explain the low figure. ICAO IATA GSIE Scheduled commercial flights Annex 3: a) fatality or serious injury (incl. jet blast) b) damage requiring major repair (no engine failure) c) a/c missing or completely inaccessible IATA definition (Western built jets only?) - Scheduled/charter passenger or cargo service - Multi-engine, turbine powered - MTOM>5700kg (turbo-prop) & >5000kg (jet) - Major damage (> million or 0% hull value) or hull loss Harmonized accident rate # Accidents (202) # Fatalities (202) Accident Rate per million flights Accident Rate accident per # flights , , , Boeing Annex 3, but only Western-built a/c (see list) 0, ASN Annex 3, fatal airliners (4+ passengers) hull loss accidents Ascend EASA? Fatal accidents - Western/Eastern-built a/c, all weights, sizes and engine types (4+ seats) - both passenger and non-passenger airline operations Table 2: Summary of Accident & Fatality Rate , , Chapter: Conclusion on Aviation Safety 4

16 Road safety United States/Global Figure 5: Fatalities and Rate per 00 Million Vehicle Miles Traveled by Year 20 (US DOT) ( ), the NSC reported that the odds of dying in a car accident in the US over a lifetime was about one in 83. While the number of global vehicle passengers and drivers may not be known, the World Health Organization estimates that.2 million people die each year in road traffic accidents (roughly half of which are pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists). So even though we drive more than we fly, it seems that there is basis for the claim that on the road is more dangerous than up in the air. (Sood, 202) Europe I have created the table below, based on the data found in the EU Transport Commission statistical pocketbook ed Based solely on fatalities and population, living in Europe it appears as if flying is 6000 times safer than getting on the road and 8 times safer than taking a train. On the other hand the average European spends a lot more time in his car, than on an airplane. (Levitt & Dubner, 203) Accident statistics (20) EU-27 (Europe) Rate per million nationals Belgium Rate per million nationals Road Fatalities Road accidents (personal injury) Railway Fatalities 38 0, Air Fatalities (EU-27 Operators, MTOW>5700kg) 6 0,0 Table 3: Accident statistics 20 (EU Transport Commission) Mode of transportation (EU-27) billion pkm (EU-27) # Fatalities Fatlity Rate per 00 billion pkm Passenger cars ,5 Powered two-wheelers ,9 Buses & coaches ,0 Railways ,3 Tram & metro 93 Intra-EU Air Transport ,0 Table 4: Fatality Rate per 00 billion pkm (EU Transport Commission) Chapter: Road safety 5

17 Since there were apparently no (reported) fatalities on buses and coaches in 20, choosing a bus or airplane would have been the best option. On the other hand, I would consider selling that motor bike. Figure 6: Top 0 causes of death (source: WHO) Pedestrians, cyclists and users of motorized two-wheelers Compared to plane and train disasters, street vehicle accidents more often involve bystanders. WHO reports that nearly half of the fatalities in road accidents are "pedestrians, cyclists and users of motorized two-wheelers." (World Health Organization, 203) Railroad safety The statistics on worldwide rail travel aren t consistent, and the majority of the available data covers Europe. The Economist reported that, in 20,,239 people were killed in over 2,300 railway accidents in the European Union. ( ) Based on data from the National Safety Council, the New York Times calculated that the lifetime risk of an American dying in a train crash was one in 56,69. (CBC News, 203) Maritime safety While cruises are more optional than planes and vehicle when travelling, the odds of dying are nearly as slim as flying. As for cruise ships, the Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA), an association of cruise lines, said that from 2005 to 20 only 6 people died in cruise accidents, out of 00 million passengers, putting the odds of death over that period at one in 6.25 million. But the Costa Concordia disaster doubled that fatality number in the early days of 202. Chapter: Pedestrians, cyclists and users of motorized two-wheelers 6

18 However, a new report by Reuters questions the validity of any cruise safety statistics because there is no public database on cruise line accidents. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO), which provides regulations for cruise ships, does not keep complete records of marine casualties but recorded fewer than 300 incidents since 2000, while the independent website CruiseJunkie, run by sociology professor Ross Klein of Memorial University Newfoundland, has published reports of 644 incidents in the same period. (Sood, 202) I apologize for not digging deeper into the topic of maritime safety, but I consider maritime transport less important in the scope of this question. Apart from ferry shuttle services, I consider cruise ships a non-essential mode of transport. Conclusion It seems to be quite difficult to find accurate comparisons between the different means of transportation. Some guidelines: - The scope of the data should be restricted to a specific region (e.g. USA, Europe, ) - Make sure your data cover the same period, since there can be large differences in rate (especially with the historically low rates in aviation nowadays) - Specify what you are looking for: # fatalities per passenger per km, # fatal accidents per capita per year, # fatalities per hour of travel, - Consider the base data: only Western-built jets, MTOM>5700kg, include/exclude truck drivers, - Check you references: use data from official organizations (NSC, EASA, ICAO, ) Instead of trying to setup my own definitions - for which I would almost certainly lack data I will list some verified facts which can hopefully answer the question on the safest means of transportation: According to the NSC, in 200 there were 0.50 deaths per 00 million passenger miles (cars). The death rate for buses was 0.05 and passenger trains 0.02, while no one died in scheduled airline travel during that period. (MSN News, 203) Figure 7: US Fatalities per 00 million passenger miles On a per passenger mile basis, you're over seventy times likelier to die driving a car. (Yglesias, 203) In the last five years, the death risk for passengers in the United States has been one in 45 million flights, according to Arnold Barnett, a professor of statistics at M.I.T. In other words, flying has become so reliable that a traveler could fly every day for an average of 23,000 years before being in a fatal crash, he said. (Mouawad & Drew, 203) Chapter: Conclusion 7

19 Appendix: Infographics on global road safety 203 (WHO) Chapter: Appendix: Infographics on global road safety 203 (WHO) 8

20 References Ask.com. (203, December 3). What Is the Safest Form of Transport? Retrieved from Ask.com: Aviation Safety Network. (203, December 3). Aviation-safety.net - References. Retrieved from ASN: Boeing. (203). Statistical summary of commercial jet airplane accidents Seattle: Boeing. CBC News. (203, August ). Is it safer to fly, drive or take the train? Retrieved from CBC news: EASA. (203). Annual Safety Review 202. Cologne: EASA. EU. (203). EU Transport in Figures, statistical pocketbook 203. Brussels: European Union. Highland, J. (20, Aug 03). What's the Safest Mode of Transportation? Retrieved Dec 3, 203, from Yahoo.com: IATA. (203). 202 Aviation Safety Performance. Geneva: IATA. IATA. (203). Annual Review 203. Geneva: IATA. ICAO. (200). Annex 3: Aircraft Accident and Incident Investigation, 9th ed. Montreal: ICAO. ICAO. (203). 203 Safety Report. Montreal, Canada: ICAO. Learmount, D. (203). A very good year for safety. Flight International Magazine ed. 5-Jan-203. Levitt & Dubner. (203, December 4). Freakonomics : A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything. Retrieved from About.com - Contemporary literature: Mouawad, J., & Drew, C. (203, February ). Airline Industry at Its Safest Since the Dawn of the Jet Age. Retrieved from New York Times: was-the-safest-year-for-airlines-globally-since-945.html MSN News. (203, July 26). Despite recent accidents, airplane travel still safest. Retrieved from MSN News: Sood, S. (202, January 27). What is the safest mode of travel? Retrieved December 203, 3, from BBC.com Travel Wise: US DOT - National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). (203). Traffic Safety Facts 202 (DOT HS 8 856). Washington DC: US DOT. Wikipedia. (203, December 4). Aviation Safety. Retrieved from Wikipedia: World Health Organization. (203). Who.int - Infographics on global road safety 203. Retrieved December 3, 203, from World Health Organization: Chapter: References 9

21 ml Yglesias, M. (203, July 6). Passenger Airplanes Are Amazingly Safe. Retrieved from Slate.com: afe.html Chapter: References 2 0

22 List of figures Figure : ICAO Accident Records Figure 2: ICAO Accident statistics and rates Figure 3: Western-built jet hull-loss rate per million sectors ( )... 5 Figure 4: GSIE Harmonized accident rate Figure 5: 0-Year Accident Rates by Type of Operation (Boeing)... 8 Figure 6: Accident Rates and Onboard fatalities by Year (Boeing)... 9 Figure 7: Fatal Accidents and Onboard Fatalities by Phase of Flight (Boeing)... 9 Figure 8: Fatal airliner (4+ passengers) hull-loss accidents (ASN)... 0 Figure 9: Flights per fatal accident (FlightGlobal - Ascend)... Figure 0: World airline fatala accidents and fatalities (FlightGlobal Ascend)... Figure : Nr/Rate per 0 million flights of sched. pax and cargo fatal accidents worldwide per year (EASA)... 2 Figure 2: Global distribution of fatal accidents worldwide (EASA)... 2 Figure 3: Total # Accidents, Fatal accidents & Fatalities for EASA MS Operated Aeroplanes MTOM>2250kg (EASA)... 3 Figure 4: Rate of Fatal accidents in EASA MS and 3rd country sched. passenger ops MTOM>2250kg (EASA)... 3 Figure 5: Fatalities and Rate per 00 Million Vehicle Miles Traveled by Year 20 (US DOT)... 5 Figure 6: Top 0 causes of death (source: WHO)... 6 Figure 7: US Fatalities per 00 million passenger miles... 7 Index ICAO Annex International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)... 3 Safety Management Manual (SMM)... 2 Safety Management Systems... 2 Chapter: List of figures 2