Community Risk in Emerging Aviation Markets. Christian M Salmon & Alfredo Lagos Aviation Institute The George Washington University

Transcription

1 Community Risk in Emerging Aviation Markets Christian M Salmon & Alfredo Lagos Aviation Institute The George Washington University

2 IRCDM & Aviation Institute Christian Salmon & Alfredo Lagos Institute for Risk Crisis and Disaster Management (ICDRM) Aviation Institute International Summit on Aviation Safety and Security 3 year cooperative agreement between the FAA and the GW Consortium. focused on ICAO Standards and the need for regional cooperation among all Signatory States national carriers April , Vancouver Canada. 2-2

3 Aviation Institute International Summit on Aviation Safety and Security Raise the level of aviation safety and security globally through commitment at the policymaking level Strengthen advocacy by Ministers and Directors General for aviation safety and security Identify the human and financial resources needed to meet ICAO obligations for aviation safety and security oversight Exchange views on development of regional cooperation plans, and maintaining conformance with ICAO obligations April , Vancouver Canada. 2-3

4 Aviation Institute During research for Summit Program : notable difference between international and domestic operations International: large-jet commercial operations Domestic: significant non-large-jet operations aviation safety priorities seemed biased towards international large-jet commercial operations Are causal factors and accident characteristics transferable between segments of aviations? April , Vancouver Canada. 2-4

5 Aviation Safety 60 Flight International 50 number fatal accidents Boeing Netherlands ICAO UK CAA 10 NTSB April , Vancouver Canada. 2-5

6 Aviation Safety 2000 Flight International Netherlands CAA UK CAA number fatalities ICAO Boeing NTSB April , Vancouver Canada. 2-6

7 Delineation of Incorporated Data aircraft & operations characteristics ICAO Boeing UK CAA Neth CAA Flight Int NTSB aircraft mass (K kg) X X X X >27 X Accidents, Fatalities, Hull losses region of manufacture eastern X X western X X X X x schedule classification scheduled X X x X X X unscheduled X x engine type piston turbo prop X X X X x jet X X X passenger X Fatalities X X X X x crew April , Vancouver Canada. X 2 - x7 military - terrorism - sabotage

8 Identification of Differentials aircraft mass (kg) UK CAA Boeing Differentials UK CAA ICAO Differentials 2.2K - 5.7K UK CAA: ICAO: 5.7K - 27K X X > 5.7k,< 27K X Less than 2.7K >27K X eastern region of manufacture none none western X X X X scheduled X X UK CAA: schedule classification X none X unscheduled X unscheduled engine type piston UK CAA: ICAO: turbo prop X X X Turbo Prop Piston jet X X X passenger X UK CAA: fatal accidents X X none X crew only April , Vancouver crew Canada. 2-8

9 Emerging Aviation Markets Academic & industry literature: Predictions of significant increases in utility of community airports by regional, commuter, air taxi, corporate and private aviation operators. Enabling technologies micro-jets Low cost (relatively) Anywhere, anytime mobility April , Vancouver Canada. 2-9

10 Emerging Aviation Markets Independent of allure; future of the private commuter aircraft likely extremely limited April , Vancouver Canada. 2-10

11 Emerging Aviation Markets Aircraft with reduced price structure: micro-jet 1/4 to 1/3 cost of contemporary 4-6 passenger jet aircraft Eclipse 500 (and others) affords opportunity for Increasing business & corporate utilization Unscheduled air taxi operations Private operations April , Vancouver Canada. 2-11

12 Risk Exposure More people flying to more places on smaller and more frequent flights into community airports with no tradition of high volume commercial operations Risk of being involved in aviation accident based on exposure: One component being number of operations Passenger Resident of community surrounding airport April , Vancouver Canada. 2-12

13 Individual vs community risk exposure 8 7 Community: 100,000 operatio likely number of accidents specific aircraft ~ 100 operations Community: ~ 50,000 operations exposure April , Vancouver Canada. 2-13

14 Estimating Community Risk Sometimes aircraft miss the tarmac (and the whole airport), inducing risk on surrounding community Boeing summary as an estimator: Approximately 50% accidents during non-landing phase of flight Validate with Virginia Part 91 accident locations based on phase of flight April , Vancouver Canada. 2-14

15 Community Risk State of Virginia Part 91 aviation accident location by "phase of flight": % all accident occur: non-landing phases of flight 34% all accidents: non-landing & non-takeoff 23% of all accident are fatal 11% are serious 69% fatal accidents occur during non-landing 51% fatal accidents: non-landing & non-takeoff 47% of fatal and serious accidents: non-landing & non-takeoff source: NASDAC database April , Vancouver Canada. 2-15

16 Community Risk ~ 50% aviation accidents occur off airport property Back of the envelope calculation: Estimate community risk based on current accident rates and forecast data Problem: other components of exposure: Accident rates function of: type of aircraft type of operation April , Vancouver Canada. 2-16

17 Community Risk 10 Fatal Accidnet rate per 100,000 departures General Aviation Air Taxi Business Commuter Corporate/executive Figure 2: Fatal Accident Rate - "General Aviation" Source: NBAA - Business Aviation's Excellent Safety Record Detailed April , Vancouver Canada. 2-17

18 Community Risk Forecasts transcend these boundaries NTSB accident data CFR Title 14 Part 135 Commuter: < 10-seats Air taxi: unscheduled commuter operation FAA Aerospace Forecasts Incorporates air taxi operations in GA (Part 91) No aircraft specificity No aerodrome specificity April , Vancouver Canada. 2-18

19 Community Risk Assessment Developing community risk assessment based on national data base that can be applied to individual airports: Data fields: Type of operations Number of operations Topography Prevailing atmospheric conditions April , Vancouver Canada. 2-19

20 Quantitative Risk Assessment Model type of operations atmospheric conditions Operation density IFR - VRF Topography Operations oversight infrastructures length of flight f(# engines) Location of Accident relative to airport Population density Community Specific Objective Probability Density Functions April , Vancouver Canada. 2-20

21 Quantitative Risk Analysis Utility of model outcome: Specific & Relative Specific Objective accident record adds insight to risk of accident in specific location relative to airport Cluster of accident Cluster of housing Public area School Heavily traveled highway April , Vancouver Canada. 2-21

22 0 Degrees & R=5 m Accident Clusters: 135 degrees & R=.5 m April , Vancouver Canada. 2-22

23 0 Degrees & R=5 m Housing Sub-Division 135 degrees & R=.5 m April , Vancouver Canada. 2-23

24 Quantitative Risk Analysis Utility of model outcome: relative Risk metric specific to airport and community Extremely expensive to train and equip for Low probability events Low priority event in era of heightened concern of terrorism Tailor emergency responses capabilities to risk rather than one size fits all April , Vancouver Canada. 2-24

25 ARFF Index: Length (ft) A B C D < Minimum Rescue and Fire Fighting Capabilities number of vehicles * contents of vehicles Single Vehicle: (a) 500lbs Sodium Agent * either (a) or (b) (b) 450 lbs Potassium Agent gal water** either (1) or (2) (1):Single Vehicle with:(a) gal water** (2): Two Vehicles with: total capacity of single vehicle (3): (4): either (3) or (4) One vehicle Two vehicles One vehicle One vehicle one vehicle two vehicles equal capacity to max of Index B 3000 combined gal water (a) 3000 water (a) 4000 combined gal water one vehicle (a) E >200 Two Vehicles with 6000 combined gal water April , Vancouver Canada. 2-25

26 Emergency Response Capabilities ~ 50% of all aviation accidents occur outside boundaries of airports Capabilities of on-airport ARFF to respond to aviation accidents off airport property Capabilities of community emergency response infrastructure to respond Interface between airport and community emergency response capabilities April , Vancouver Canada. 2-26

27 Emergency Response Capabilities Develop a more sophisticated response system? Primary characteristics: effective economically sustainable manner First step: Assess existing infrastructure capabilities April , Vancouver Canada. 2-27

28 Emergency Response Capabilities Two Surveys Community airport managers identified (by previous authors) as having attributes of emerging aviation market Compliance with requirements Attitudes towards requirements under consideration of increasing utility Existing mutual-aid agreements Annul training Etc.. April , Vancouver Canada. 2-28

29 Emergency Response Capabilities Two Surveys Surrounding community emergency response (fire service) Existing capability of responding to aviation accident Attitudes towards aviation as a risk Annual training Etc Note: survey specific to aviation April , Vancouver Canada. 2-29

30 Emergency Response Capabilities Survey April , Vancouver Canada. 2-30

31 Findings: April , Vancouver Canada. 2-31

32 Questions and Comments Christian M Salmon Salmon@gwu.edu Alfredo Lagos Alagos@gwu.edu Aviation Institute Institute for Risk Crisis and Disaster Management April , Vancouver Canada. 2-32