Safety 2010: A marginal average year in global Aviation Safety

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1 Safety 2: A marginal average year in global Aviation Safety The year 2 was one of the best in aviation in terms of safety; however, as shown by the Safety Survey 2 data, runway safety remains a top priority. Runway excursion was the most common type of accident last year and the cause of the worst accident in terms of fatalities. ICAO has teamed up with key players to tackle runway safety issues and further improve the industry's already impressive safety record. Overview Nancy J. Graham, Director, Air Navigation Bureau, ICAO The following report presents a global Aviation Safety Analysis for calendar year 2 1. In absolute IATA numbers more than 2.4 billion people flew safely on 36.8 million flights 2. However, according to Flight Safety Foundation (FSF), during 2 a total of 134 hull loss multi-engine civil airlines accidents/occurrences (fatal and non fatal) were recorded. In particular, 29 fatal accidents were confirmed accompanied by 831 fatalities plus 6 casualties on ground. The following Table 1 presents the 29 fatal accident s breakdown with some additional general remarks: TABLE 1 Year 2 3 : A fatal hull loss multi engine civil airlines accident s breakdown and additional remarks Fatal accidents according to flight phase Fatal accidents according to flight nature Additional General Remarks 4 Take off 15 Scheduled passenger 5 fatal corporate jet accidents/18 fatalities 5 Initial Climb 2 Non scheduled passenger 85 Rwy excursions / 3 fatal Enroute 8 Cargo 1 attempted hijacking 9 Approach 1 Ferry/Positioning criminal occurrences 5 Landing Training About 2. bird strikes 3 Other Lowest ever accident rate for Western-built jet a/c 5 Worst fatal hull loss accident for 2 The worst accident for 2 occurred on 22 May 2 when a B737-8 of Air India Express overran the runway at Mangalore Bajpe Airport (IXE), India. In total 158 people were killed. This accident was rated as the worst ever accident involving a B737-8 and the 4th in severity global accident in the landing phase. 6 Compared to the ten year worldwide average 9 (i.e. 31 fatal accidents / 8 fatalities), in the year 2 there has been a marginal - close to average - stability for aviation safety (i.e. 29 fatal accidents / 831 fatalities). The following chapters I, II and III present a more detailed FSF s statistical analysis of the year 2 mirrored with last decade s fatal accidents/occurrences while chapter IV adds an IATA s fruitful perspective. I. Statistical Information regarding the global aviation safety data 1 Military accidents, corporate jets, hijackings (and/or other criminal occurrences) are not included in the retrieved data. 2 IATA, News press release No, 23 February 21, available at 3 Data s Source: Aviation Safety Network, an exclusive service of Flight Safety Foundation, available at accessed at 4- March, 2. 4 Data based on NLR- Air Transport Safety Institute s database and includes military accidents, corporate jets, hijackings (and/or other criminal occurrences). 5 IATA, ibid. 6 Including criminal occurrences and excluding ground fatalities/collision fatalities.

2 Moving Average Moving Average loss Fatalities 2 has been another short of average safety year. This is not bad but it s a bit of a concern. We started a trend of improvement and we need to pay attention and see why we get better and how we need to continue to get better, at the same time. a. Overall Data for years -2 William R. Voss, President and CEO, Flight Safety Foundation The following table and charts present useful statistical information regarding the global aviation safety. The overall data of worldwide fatal airliner hull-loss accidents and fatalities per year (-2) are presented in Table 2. The data do not include corporate jet and military transport accidents. TABLE 2 Fatal Airliner Hull loss accidents and fatalities per year (-2) Fatalities b. Run Charts for years -2 The run charts in the following figures 1 and 2 respectively illustrate the airliner fatal hull loss accidents and fatalities for the years -2. Run Chart of airliner fatal hull loss accidents per year Run Chart of airlines fatalities per year Observation Years Observation Years -2 Figure 1: Airliner Hull Accidents Figure 2: Airliner Fatalities c. Moving Average Charts for years -2 The next moving average charts illustrate that the worldwide airliner fatal hull loss accidents and fatalities for year 2 are very close to the moving average of 3.55 accidents and 812 fatalities for the years -2, as shown in figures 3 and 4 respectively. Moving Average Chart of airlines fatal hull loss accidents per year 5 4 UCL=38, Moving Average Chart of Airliner fatalities per year UCL= _ X=3,55 LCL=22, 8 6 _ X= Sample Years Sample Years -2 LCL=97

3 Fatal hull loss Fatalities Figure 3: Airliner Hull Accidents Average Figure 4: Airliner Fatalities Average d. Trend Analysis Plots for years -2 The following trend analysis plots in figures 5 and 6 illustrate respectively a continuing declined slope for worldwide airliner fatal hull loss accidents and fatalities for the years - 2. Trend Analysis Plot for airlines fatal hull loss accidents per year Trend Analysis Plot for airlines fatalities per year 37,5 35, ,5 8 3, ,5 5 25, Index Years Index Years -2 Figure 5: Trend Analysis - Hull Accidents Figure 6: Trend Analysis - Fatalities II. Statistical Information on global aviation safety according to flight phase In terms of accidents rates, 2 was one of the best years for Europe and Airlines. But this is not enough. We have seen a significant improvement in the relationship between airlines and EASA. And that is extremely important as well. a. Statistical Information regarding the Take Off flight phase Ulrich Schulte-Strathaus, Secretary General of AEA i. Overall Data / Take Off The following table and plots present useful statistical information regarding the Take Off flight phase. The overall data of worldwide fatal airliner hull-loss accidents and fatalities at Take Off flight phase per year (-2) are presented in Table 3. The data do not include corporate jet and military transport accidents. TABLE 3 Fatal Airliner Hull loss accidents and fatalities per year (-2), regarding the Take Off flight phase Fatalities ii. Trend Analysis Plots / Take Off Besides, the next figures 7 and 8 illustrate respectively the trend analysis plots of worldwide airliner fatal hull loss accidents and fatalities regarding the Take Off flight phase, for years -2.

4 loss - Initial Climb phase Fatalities - Initial Climb phase loss - Take off Fatalities during Take off Trend Analysis Plot for airlines fatal hull loss - Take off phase Trend Analysis Plot for airlines fatalities during Take off phase Index Years Index Years -2 Figure 7: Accidents Take Off Figure 8: Fatalities Take Off b. Statistical Information regarding the Initial Climb flight phase i. Overall Data / Initial Climb The following table and plots present useful statistical information regarding the Initial Climb flight phase. The overall data of worldwide fatal airliner hull-loss accidents and fatalities at Initial Climb flight phase per year (-2) are presented in Table 4. The data do not include corporate jet and military transport accidents. TABLE 4 Fatal Airliner Hull loss accidents and fatalities per year (-2), regarding the Initial Climb flight phase Fatalities ii. Trend Analysis Plots Initial Climb The following figures 9 and illustrate respectively the trend analysis plots of worldwide airliner fatal hull loss accidents and fatalities regarding the Initial Climb flight phase, for years -2. Trend Analysis Plot for airlines fatal hull loss - Initial Climb phase Trend Analysis Plot for airlines fatalities during Initial Climb phase Index Years Index Years -2 Figure 9: Accidents Initial Climb Figure : Fatalities Initial Climb c. Statistical Information regarding the Enroute flight phase i. Overall Data / Enroute The following table and plots present useful statistical information regarding the Enroute flight phase. The overall data of worldwide fatal airliner hull-loss accidents and fatalities at Initial

5 loss - Enroute phase Fatalities - Enroute phase Climb flight phase per year (-2) are presented in Table 5. The data do not include corporate jet and military transport accidents. TABLE 5 Fatal Airliner Hull loss accidents and fatalities per year (-2), regarding the Enroute flight phase Fatalities ii. Trend Analysis / Enroute The following figures 11 and 12 illustrate respectively the trend analysis plots of worldwide airliner fatal hull loss accidents and fatalities regarding the Enroute flight phase, for years -2. Trend Analysis Plot for airlines fatal hull loss - Enroute phase Trend Analysis Plot for airlines fatalities - Enroute phase Index Years Index Years -2 Figure 11: Accidents Enroute Figure 12: Fatalities Enroute d. Statistical Information regarding the Approach flight phase i. Overall Data / Approach The following table and plots presents useful statistical information regarding the Approach flight phase. The overall data of worldwide fatal airliner hull-loss accidents and fatalities at Approach flight phase per year (-2) are presented in Table 6. The data does not include corporate jet and military transport accidents. TABLE 6 Fatal Airliner Hull loss accidents and fatalities per year (-2), regarding the Approach flight phase Fatalities ii. Trend Analysis Plots / Approach Besides, the next figures 13 and 14 illustrate respectively the trend analysis plots of worldwide airliner fatal hull loss accidents and fatalities regarding the Approach flight phase, for years -2.

6 loss - Landing phase Fatalities - Landing phase loss - Approach phase Fatalities - Approach phase Trend Analysis Plot for airlines fatal hull loss - Approach phase Trend Analysis Plot for airlines fatalities - Approach phase Index Years Index Years -2 Figure 13: Accidents Approach Figure 14: Fatalities Approach e. Statistical Information regarding the Landing flight phase i. Overall Data / Landing The following table and plots presents useful statistical information regarding the Landing flight phase. The overall data of worldwide fatal airliner hull-loss accidents and fatalities at Landing flight phase per year (-2) are presented in Table 7. The data does not include corporate jet and military transport accidents. TABLE 7 Fatal Airliner Hull loss accidents and fatalities per year (-2), regarding the Landing flight phase Fatalities ii. Trend Analysis Plots / Landing Besides, the next figures 15 and 16 illustrate respectively the trend analysis plots of worldwide airliner fatal hull loss accidents and fatalities regarding the Landing flight phase, for years -2. Trend Analysis Plot for airlines fatal hull loss - Landing phase Trend Analysis Plot for airlines fatalities - Landing phase Index Years Index Years -2 Figure 15: Accidents Landing Figure 16: Fatalities Landing III. Statistical Information on global aviation safety according to flight nature 7 2 was a very important year for aviation safety and marked a corner in safety approaches. We tried to leave behind the reactive way of doing things and by a continuous monitoring we managed to approach another more proactive way to do things. At the European level, we will 7 Due to small data numbers Ferry/Positioning and Training flight nature accidents are not statistically examined.

7 Fatal hull loss - Scheduled flight Fatalities - Scheduled Flight continue to work closely with the authorities in order to integrate all safety aspects in all 44 ECAC members Catalin Radu, Pesident of ECAC a. Statistical Information regarding the Domestic & International Scheduled Passenger flight accidents. i. Overall Data / Domestic and International Scheduled Passenger The following table and plots present useful statistical information regarding the Domestic & International Scheduled Passenger flight accidents. The overall data of worldwide fatal airliner hull-loss accidents and fatalities of this nature per year (-2) are presented in Table 8. The data do not include corporate jet and military transport accidents. TABLE 8 Fatal Airliner Hull loss accidents and fatalities per year (-2), regarding the Domestic & International Scheduled Passenger flight accidents Fatalities ii. Trend Analysis Plots / Domestic and International Scheduled Passenger Besides, the next figures 17 and 18 illustrate respectively the trend analysis plots of worldwide airliner fatal hull loss accidents and fatalities regarding the Domestic & International Scheduled Passenger flight accidents, for years -2. Trend Analysis Plot for airlines fatal hull loss - Scheduled passenger flight Trend Analysis Plot for airlines fatalities - Scheduled passenger flight Index Years Index Years -2 Figure 17: Accidents Scheduled Figure 18: Fatalities Scheduled b. Statistical Information regarding the Domestic & International Non Scheduled Passenger flight accidents. i. Overall Data / Domestic and International Non Scheduled Passenger The following table and plots present useful statistical information regarding the Domestic & International Non Scheduled Passenger flight accidents. The overall data of worldwide fatal airliner hull-loss accidents and fatalities of this nature per year (-2) are presented in Table 9. The data do not include corporate jet and military transport accidents.

8 Fatal hull loss - Non Scheduled Flight Fatalities - Non Scheduled Flight TABLE 9 Fatal Airliner Hull loss accidents and fatalities per year (-2), regarding the Domestic & International Non Scheduled Passenger flight accidents Fatalities ii. Trend Analysis Plots / Domestic and International Non Scheduled Passenger The next figures 19 and 2 illustrate respectively the trend analysis plots of worldwide airliner fatal hull loss accidents and fatalities regarding the Domestic & International Non Scheduled Passenger flight accidents, for years -2. Trend Analysis Plot for airlines fatal hull loss - Non Scheduled Flight Trend Analysis Plot for airlines fatalities - Non Scheduled Flight Index Years Index Years -2 Figure 19: Accidents Non Scheduled Figure 2: Fatalities Non Scheduled c. Statistical Information regarding Cargo flight accidents. i. Overall Data / Cargo The following table and plots present useful statistical information regarding the Cargo flight accidents. The overall data of worldwide fatal airliner hull-loss accidents and fatalities of this nature per year (-2) are presented in Table. The data not include corporate jet and military transport accidents. TABLE Fatal Airliner Hull loss accidents and fatalities per year (-2), regarding the Cargo flight accidents Fatalities ii. Trend Analysis Plots / Cargo The next figures 21 and 22 illustrate respectively the trend analysis plots of worldwide airliner fatal hull loss accidents and fatalities regarding the Cargo flight accidents, for years - 2.

9 Fatal hull loss - Cargo Flight Fatalities - Cargo Flight Trend Analysis Plot for airlines fatal hull loss - Cargo Flight Trend Analysis Plot for airlines fatalities - Cargo Flight Index Years Index Years -2 Figure 21: Accidents Cargo Figure 22: Fatalities Cargo IV. An IATA s fruitful perspective for Western-built jet aircraft 8 Aviation continues to be a very safe mode of transportation. However, we have to keep the highest level of safety possible. We have to continue to work for making a safe mode of transportation, even safer. a. Overview analysis Andre Auer, Aviation Consultant The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced on 23 Feb 21 the aviation safety performance for 2 showing that the year s accident rate has been the lowest in aviation history. With a total of 94 accidents/occurrences, the following Table 11 presents the final IATA s aviation safety perspectives of year 2 along with a short comparison with the previous year, 9. TABLE 11 IATA s absolute numbers Accident s breakdown Hull loss accidents for Western built jet aircraft Total Accidents (Eastern and Western built) Fatal accidents (all aircraft types) Year 2 Year Fatalities IATA members accidents IATA members hull loss rate Runway excursions (of all accidents) % 26% 8 IATA Global Safety International Center (GSIC), available at accessed March 11,21.

10 In addition, the 2 global accident rate 9 (measured in hull losses per million flights) was.61. That is equal to one accident for every 1.6 million flights. This is a significant improvement from the.71 rate recorded in 9 (one accident for 1.4 million flights). The 2 rate was the lowest in aviation history, just below the 6 rate of.65. Compared to that of years ago, the accident rate has been cut by 42% from the rate recorded in 1. A hull loss is an accident in which the aircraft is destroyed or substantially damaged and is not subsequently repaired. Last, but not least, runway excursions were once again the most common cause of accidents, accounting for 21% of all accidents in 2 (vs. 26% in 9). b. Regional perspective The following figure 23 presents the regional differences in the Western built jet hull loss accident rates. Figure 23: Regional differences in the Western built jet hull loss accident rate While showing improvement, Africa once again has the worst rate in the world. There were four Western-built jet hull losses with African carriers in 2. African carriers are 2% of global traffic, but 23% of global western-built jet hull losses. On the other hand, operators based in North America and Europe recorded no IATA member fatalities in 2 during passenger operations. Conclusions 2 was the safest year ever in Europe. No commercial accident happened in Europe for first time in forty years Patrick Goudou, Executive Director of EASA Although the tables, charts and plots speak quite clearly a couple of comments are worth point out for the year 2 (by number of fatal accidents): Overall, airliner aviation safety has achieved a marginal, close to average, stability regarding -9 accident averages. According to Flight Safety Foundation the year 2 was the 6th safest year since 1945, by number of fatal accidents. According to IATA the year 2 was the safest year ever by total accident s rate. The estimated -2 average is 3.55 fatal multi-engine civil airliner accidents, resulting in an average of 812 fatalities. There is a marginal fatal accident rate improvement (worldwide). 9 The intention of the flight is limited to normal commercial aviation activities, specifically scheduled/charter passenger or cargo service. Executive jet operations, positioning or maintenance/test flights are all excluded. multi-engine, turbine powered, and has a certificated Maximum Take-Off Weight (MTOW) of at least 5,7KG (12,54 lbs) for Turboprops and 15,KG (33, lbs) for Jets. IATA s GSIC, ibid.

11 Fatal accidents are slightly down but unfortunately fatalities are up. However, the overall safety trend is improving. About 1 airliner fatal accident happened for every 1.3 million flights worldwide 11. A significant (34%) percentage of accidents occurred on the landing flight phase. Therefore, the overall -2 trend is continuing to go up. Although the approach s flight phase trend is still going downwards, both fatal accidents and fatalities numbers are going up. Although cargo fatal accidents and fatalities are down the trend is still remaining upwards. More than 5% of fatal accidents occurred with scheduled passenger flights. Initial climb accidents/fatalities trend continue to keep a steady uphill slope. In only one country (i.e. Pakistan) 3 out of the 29 fatal hull loss accidents occurred with 181 fatalities plus 4 ground casualties in total. Only one airliner fatal accident occurred in Europe. Europe still remains the safest civil airliner continent while Africa once again has the worst rate record in the world. Runway excursions were once again the most common cause of accidents (fatal, non fatal and by number of casualties, all included) 18% of the total number of accidents involved Western-built Jet Hull es. 22% of the total numbers of accidents/occurrences (out of 134 worldwide hull loss multi-engine civil airlines) were fatal. The IATA-member rate for all accidents is 1.5 compared to the rate for non-iata members of 3.51 (executive jet operations, positioning or maintenance/test flights are all excluded) and 4.5 (executive jet operations, positioning or maintenance/test flights are all included). APPENDIX: Year 2: fatal airliner accidents by chronological order According to Ascend s annual airline safety report, Database retrieved from accessed March 12, 21.

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