Airline Passenger Transportation System: Structure and Dynamics. Lance Sherry 04/2101

Transcription

1 Airline Passenger Transportation System: Structure and Dynamics Lance Sherry 0/0

2 PreTest A flight from DFW to ABQ has an ontime performance of 70%. For delayed flights the average delay is 0 minutes. The flight is cancelled % of the time. For passengers on cancelled flights the average delay is 0 hours. The typical flight has 00 passengers. The Total Passenger Trip Delay expected is: a) (0.7 * 00 * 0) = 00 mins b) (0. * 00 * 0) = 900 mins c) (0. * 00 * 0) + (0. * 00 * 0) = 000 mins d) (0. * 00 * 0) + (0. * 00 * 600) = 6900 mins

3 Organization. Passenger Transportation System. Itinerary Performance. Network System Performance

4 Passenger Trip Direct Itinerary: Origin Destination Scheduled Departure Time Origin (as ticketed) Scheduled Arrival Time Destination (as ticketed) Flight Number Flight Seat Capacity Type: Direct D H Direct Connectiing Time Connecting Itinerary Origin Hub Destination OriginHub Scheduled Departure Time origin (as ticketed) Scheduled Arrival Time Hub (as ticketed) Flight Number Flight Seat Capacity HubDestination Scheduled Departure Time origin (as ticketed) Scheduled Arrival Time Hub (as ticketed) Flight Number Flight Seat Capacity Type: Direct O

5 Itinerary Performance 5

6 Itinerary Performance Passenger Trip Delay = Actual Passenger Arrival Time Scheduled (i.e. Ticketed) Arrival Time Disruptions resulting in Passenger Trip Delays. Delayed flights. Cancelled flights. Diverted flights. Denied Boarding 5. Missed Connections 6

7 Passenger Trip Delays Direct Itin Delayed Flight Pax Trip Delay Ticketed Arrival Time Actual Arrival Time 5 min D DelayedFlight Probability of Pax Trip Delay Probability Flight Delay > 5 minutes P DelayedFlight () D O Probability Pax Trip Delay 5 min Pax Delay Average Delay > 5 mins 7

8 Passenger Trip Delays Direct Itin Cancelled Flight Pax Trip Delay Ticketed Arrival Time Actual Arrival Time D CancelledFlight = f (Frequency of Service OD) Probability of Pax Trip Delay Probability Flight Cancelled P CancelledFlight () D O X 5 min Pax Delay 8

9 Passenger Trip Delays Connected Itin Probability Pax Trip Delay Delayed Flight Pax Trip Delay Ticketed Arrival Time Actual Arrival Time 5 min D DelayedFlight HD = f (Frequency of Service OD) Probability of Pax Trip Delay Probability HD Flight Delay > 5 minutes P DelayedFlight HD D H O 5 min Pax Delay Min Connecting Window Average Delay > 5 mins 9

10 Passenger Trip Delays Connected Itin Cancelled Flight (OH) Pax Trip Delay Ticketed Arrival Time Actual Arrival Time 5 min D CancelledFlight withconnection = f (Frequency of Service OH, HD) Probability of Pax Trip Delay Probability OH Cancelled P CancelledFlightOH () D H O X Pax Delay Min Connecting Window 0

11 Passenger Trip Delays Connected Itin Cancelled Flight (HD) Pax Trip Delay Ticketed Arrival Time Actual Arrival Time 5 min D CancelledFlight = f (Frequency of Service HD) Probability of Pax Trip Delay Probability HD Cancelled P cancelledflightoh () D H O X Pax Delay Min Connecting Window

12 Passenger Trip Delays Connected Itin Missed Connection Flight Pax Trip Delay Ticketed Arrival Time Actual Arrival Time 5 min D MissedConnectionFlight = f (Frequency of Service OD) Probability of Pax Trip Delay Probability OH Flight Delay > 5 minutes AND Probability Pax Misses Connection P DelayedFlightOH * P MissedConnection () D H O Pax Delay Min Connecting Window Probability Missed Connection = Probability OH is Delayed beyond Min Connecting Window to HD

13 Passengers on Cancelled Flights (.8%, Avg hours) Passengers on Diverted Flights (0.%, Avg.5 hours) Passengers Denied Boarding on Oversold Flights (<0.00%) Passengers on Delayed Flights (.9%, Avg 57 minutes) Passengers OnTime < 5 Minutes Delay (7%) The Passenger Trip Game Wheel Not drawn to scale

14 Passenger Itin Load Factor Flight Performance For Each Passenger Itinerary O to H Cancelled Connecting Itin H to D Cancelled Compute Flight Delay for Diverted Flight Missed Connectio n O to H Diverted Direct or Connecting H to D Diverted Direct Itin O to D Cancelled Compute Flight Delay for Diverted Flight Compute Pax Delay for Diverted Pax Denied Boarding Not Shown, same as cancelled O to D Diverted Compute Pax Delay For Delayed Flight H to D Delayed Compute Pax Delay for Diverted Pax Missed Connection O to H Delayed Rebook Pax O to D and Compute Pax Delays Rebook Pax H to D and Compute Pax Delay Compute Pax Delay For Delayed Flight H to D Delayed

15 Calculating Passenger Trip Delay Scheduled Departure Time Schduled Arrival Time Seats # Pax Flight Status Delay Pax Trip Delay OD 06:00 08: Delayed 0 mins 00* 0 OD 06:0 08: Cancelled (0 * 0) +(50 * (0 +0)+ +(0 * 60) OHD 06:0 0: OnTime 0 OD 09:0 : Delayed 0 mins 00*0 OHD :00 5: OnTime 0 5

16 Passenger Trip Delays Passengers on Direct Itinerary: Expected Pax Trip Delay = ( P DelayedFlight () * D DelayedFlight ) + (P CancelledFlight () * D CancelledFlight * f (Frequency of Service OD) Probability of Disrupted Trip = ( P DelayedFlight () + (P CancelledFlight () ) 6

17 Passenger Trip Delay Passenger on Connecting Itinerary: Expected Pax Trip Delay = ( P DelayedFlight () HD * D DelayedFlight ) + ( P DelayedFlight () OH * P MissedConnection () * D DelayedFlight ) + (P CancelledFlight () OH * D CancelledFlight * f (Frequency of Service OD) ) + (P CancelledFlight () HD * D CancelledFlight * f (Frequency of Service OD) ) Probability of Disrupted Trip = ( P DelayedFlight () HD ) + ( P DelayedFlight () OH * P MissedConnection () ) + (P CancelledFlight () OH ) + (P CancelledFlight () HD ) 7

18 Itinerary Performance Expected Pax Trip Delay ( P DelayedFlight () HD * D DelayedFlight ) + ( P DelayedFlight () OH * P MissedConnection () * D DelayedFlight ) + (P CancelledFlight () OH * D CancelledFlight = f (Frequency of Service OD) ) + (P CancelledFlight () HD * D CancelledFlight = f (Frequency of Service OD) ) ( P DelayedFlight () * D DelayedFlight ) + (P CancelledFlight () * D CancelledFlight = f (Frequency of Service OD) Direct Itin 0% Connecting Itin/ 70% Direct Connecting Itin 8

19 Network Performance 9

20 Passenger Trip Delays in a Transportation System Markets Five Located in same Time Zone Equal distance apart Transportation Service at each Market Each market has own airport Travel time = Unit Time between airports (e.g. Travel Time to = ) 5 0

21 Transportation Demand Transportation demand 00 trips to each Destination Market 00 trips from each Origin Market trips from each Origin market to each Destination Market 500 trips total Passengers are required to be at Destination for start of day Demand for travel at each Origin to arrive at Destination at start of day (shown on right) 00 pax leave each market 00 pax arrive at each market 5 Demand to each Market Start of Day at Destination Time of Day

22 Direct Flight Network Total Passengers = 500 Total Itineraries = 0 # Flights = * 5 = 0 Aircraft Size seats Distance Traveled = = 0 Total Trip Time = 0 Total Arrival Displacement Time = 0 (all pax arrive at required time) Average Trip Time = 0/ + 0/ + 7/ + 7/ + 6/ Max Simultaneous Arrivals at each airport = (at each airport) Max Simultaneous use of airspace = 5 (at each TRACON) 5 Desired Arrival Time

23 Direct Flight Network Origin Originating Pax Destination Itinerary = Flights 5 5 Pax per Itineray = Flight Trip Time Arrival Displacement TOTAL

24 HubnSpoke Network Total Passengers = 500 Total Itineraries = 0 # Flights = + = 8 Aircraft Size = 00 seats Distance Traveled = Total Trip Time = (+++5) + (+++)+ (+++)+ (+++)+ (5+++)=60 Total Arrival Displacement Time = (some pax arrive earlier than needed) Average Trip Time = 60/6 Max Simultaneous Arrivals at each airport = (at hub only) Max Simultaneous use of airspace = (at hub TRACON only) 5 Start of Day

25 HubnSpoke: Itinerary Table Origin Originating Pax Destinatio n Itinerary Pax per Itinerary Total Trip Time 5 5 Arrival Displacement (Early) TOTAL

26 HubnSpoke: Flight Table Origin Destination Pax per Flight Total Trip Time

27 Passenger Transportation System: Network Performance Airport & Airspace Capacity Flight Schedules = Frequency of Service, Turnaround Times Flight Performance P(D), P(C), P(MC) Ddelay, Dcancelled, DMissedConn Itinerary (Direct., Connecting) Load Factor Seat Capacity Pax Transportation Performance Total Pax Trip Delay % Disrupted Pax, Disrupted Pax Delay Performance Characteristics Performance Metrics 7

28 Network Performance Characteristics Transportation System has: 6 itineraries 500 trips Transportation Service is provided by: Network Structure Direct Flights vs. HubnSpoke Each Flight has: Seat Capacity = SC Seat Utilization = Load Factor = LF Likelihood of experiencing delay = P(D) Likelihood of cancellation = P(C) Each Trip has Average Trip Delay Trip Delay due to Delayed Flight = DDelayedFlight Trip Delay due to Cancelled Flight = DCancelledFlight Trip Delay due to Missed Connection = DMissedConnection 8

29 Network Performance Total Passenger Trip Delays = Total Passenger Trip Delay from Delayed Flights + Total Passenger Trip Delay from Cancelled Flights Total Passenger Trip Delay from Delayed Flights = i=,n, j=,n LF OiDj *SC OiDj * P(D) OiDj * D DelayedFlight OiDj Total Passenger Trip Delay from Cancelled Flights = i=,n, j=,n LF OiDj *SC OiDj * P(C) OiDj * D CancelledFlight OiDj 9

30 Network Performance Under assumption of homogeneous fleet, flight leg performance. LF OD = LF OD =LF OD = = LF SC OD = SC OD = SC OD = = SC P(D) OD = P(D) OD= P(D) OD = = P(D) D DelayedFlight OD = D DelayedFlight OD =. = D DelayedFlight Total Passenger Trip Delay from Delayed Flights = i=,n, j=,n LF OiDj *SC OiDj * P(D) OiDj * D DelayedFlight OiDj = #Flights * LF * SC * P(D) * D DelayedFlight 0

31 Performance Metrics. % Disrupted Passengers Total Disrupted Passengers Passengers on Delayed Flights Passengers on Cancelled Flights. Total Passenger Trip Delay. Average Passenger Trip Delay. Average Disrupted Passenger Trip Delays Average Passenger Trip Delays due to Delayed Flights Average Passenger Trip Delays due to Cancelled Flights Average Passenger Trip Delays due to Missed Connections

32 Performance: Direct Network Total Disrupted Passengers = [P(D) + P(C)] *(#Flights*LF*SC) % Passengers Disrupted = P(D)+P(C) Total Passenger Trip Delay = #Flights*LF*SC [(P(D)* D DelayedFlight )+ (P(C)* D CancelledFlight )] Average Trip Delay = Total Passenger Trip Delay/#Pax Average Disrupted Passenger Trip Delays = Total Passenger Trip Delay/Total Disrupted Passengers

33 Performance: HubnSpoke Network Total Disrupted Passengers = ( P(D) HD * #Flights HD * LF*SC) + (P(D) OH * P(MC) * #Flights HD * LF*SC) + (P(C) OH *#Flights OH *LF*SC) + (P(C) HD *#Flights HD *LF*SC) % Passengers Disrupted = P(D) + [P(D)*P(MC)] + P(C) Total Passenger Trip Delay = ( P(D) HD * #Flights HD * LF * SC *D DelayedFlight ) + (P(D) OH * P(MC) * #Flights HD * LF*SC *D MissedConnection ) + (P(C) OH * #Flights OH * LF* SC * D CancelledFlight ) + (P(C) HD * #Flights HD * LF * SC * D CancelledFlight ) Average Trip Delay = Total Passenger Trip Delay/#Pax

34 Network Performance Total Pax Trip Delay ( P(D) HD * #Flights HD * LF*SC *D DelayedFlight ) + (P(D) OH * P(MC) * #Flights HD * LF*SC *D MissedConnection ) + (P(C) OH *#Flights OH *LF*SC*D CancelledFlight ) + (P(C) HD *#Flights HD *LF*SC*D CancelledFlight ) #Flights*LF*SC [(P(D)* D DelayedFlight )+ (P(C)* D CancelledFlight )] Direct Itin 0% Connecting Itin/ 70% Direct Connecting Itin

35 PASSENGER Change Change TRIP DEMAND to to 09 AND CAPACITY Passenger Itineraries (M) % 9% Direct (M) % 0% Connecting(M) 7 96 % 6% % Connect 0 +% +% Flights (millions) % 8% Frequency of Service (average flights per day) % 8% DISRUPTED Change Change PASSENGERS 07 to to 09 % Passengers % 0% 7% 0% 6% Total Passengers Disrupted % % (millions) Average Disrupted Passenger Trip Delay (minutes) % % OF PASENGERS ON Delayed Flights Cancelled Flights Diverted Flights Missed Connections % 6.5 % Change 07 to 08 Change 08 to 09 %.5% 9.8%.7%.6%.% 9% % 0.% 0.% 0.% +7.8% 5.8%.7%.5%.% % % AVERAGE TRIP DELAY Passengers on Delayed Flights (mins) Passengers on Cancelled Flights (mins) Passengers on Diverted Flights (mins) Passengers with Missed Connections (mins) TOTAL DISRUPTED PASSENGERS Change 07 to 08 TOTAL PASSENGER TRIP DELAYS Total Passenger Trip Delays (million hours) Average Passenger Trip Delay (minutes) Change 08 to % 0% % 8.6% %.% 9 0.8% 7.% % OF TOTAL PASSENGER TRIP DELAY Passengers on Delayed Flights (mins) Passengers on Cancelled Flights (mins) Passengers on Diverted Flights (mins) Passengers with Missed Connections (mins) Change 07 to 08 Change 08 to % 6% 6 6% % Change 07 to 08 Change 08 to 09 % % % % 5% 5% 5% 9% 0% % 0% 0% % % 69% % % 6% 7% % % OF TOTAL PASSENGER TRIP DELAY Passengers required to stay overnight % of Total Itineraries 0.% 0.% 0.% % of Cancelled Itineraries.6%.8% 9.9% 5