Spaceflight Requirements & Safety Considerations when Operating from UK Spaceport(s)

Transcription

1 Spaceflight Requirements & Safety Considerations when Operating from UK Spaceport(s) Dr Andy Quinn Saturn SMS Ltd, UK A New Frontier for Growth & Enterprise

2 Greetings Live long & prosper 2

3 Topics Introduction to risks Spaceport & Spaceflight Requirements Safety Considerations Acceptable Levels of Safety 3

4 Spaceports Discounted by MoD CAA Report to Industry (6 th Nov 2015) by Jeremy Stubbs page 14: In order to protect the uninvolved general public (and to meet casualty expectation targets) a spaceport should be located in an area of low population density: The UK has no desert locations! Therefore a coastal site was seen as most appropriate. Easy access to segregated airspace away from normal air traffic routes lications/spaceport-briefing-onemerging-requirements CAP1189; p191 4

5 Rockets/Propellants Handling LOX & Asphalt = explosion Explosive Siting LOX venting Engine Test Site Noise UK Weather Cloudbase/Wind Airspace Shipping Transport links Tracking Emergency plans Abort procedures Environmental Assessment Spaceports Casualty Expectation (Ec) analysis per FAA-AST CFR 417: Ec Target for the Public = 1x10-4 per mission collective (individual risk is lower at 1x10-6 per mission) 5

6 Spaceports Location, Location, Location Casualty Expectation (Ec) analysis per FAA-AST CFR 417 Busy Shipping/Maritime (tankers, fishing, ferries, etc.) Busy Airspace (oceanic, regional, Military, GA, etc.) Ec Target for Shipping = 1x10-5 per mission Ec Target for Aircraft = 1x10-6 per mission 6

7 Spaceport Explosive Siting Requirements FAA-AST CFR 420 Note: UK HSE apply factors with rationale for person/vehicle movements (PTRD) 7

8 Spaceport Expected Casualty Analysis Source: SHOAL (formerly Aerospace Concepts, Australia) RSTT (Range Safety Toolkit Template) 8

9 UK Satellite Launcher Requirements CAA Report to Industry (6 th Nov 2015) by Jeremy Stubbs page 13 A vertical launch site for polar orbital satellite launch would most likely be at a green field location in the north of Scotland A UK Spaceport for Vertical Launch vehicles has vastly different requirements than a spaceplane Requires a Range to operate per US Range criteria (to cope with expendable stages and failure cases) Hazard containment area generally larger Ground explosive siting safety distances generally larger Spaceplanes can fly on different tracks/headings based on Ec etc. 9

10 UK Satellite Launcher Requirements CAP1189; courtesy of SSTL 10

11 Risky Business A new product, a new market Product Present New Present Market New Increasing Risk 11

12 How Safe is Safe Enough? Final Picture Credit: Elon Musk/Twitter 12

13 Safety Approvals So what approval does VG & XCOR bring with them and how could the UK integrate them as well as thinking about UKdesigned vehicles? FAA-AST Licensing (with informed consent) VG (WK2 + SS2) XCOR (Lynx) UK Delta analysis PLUS UK CAA Requirements (Ops, Population, Airspace, Shipping, HSE) FAA-AST Licensing VG (WK2 + SS2) XCOR (Lynx) UK Space Agency/CAA? UK Range Safety FAA-AST Licensing VG (Launcher One) XCOR (Lynx III) UK-design Launcher Certified/ Approval? CAP1189; p119: the UK should not apply the FAA AST system as a whole for regulation CAP1189; p9; UK and EU legal opinion has determined that horizontally-launched spaceplanes are aircraft 13

14 Safety Case Approach A safety case is a documented body of evidence that provides a demonstrable and valid argument that a system is adequately safe for a given application and environment over its lifetime (CAA, CAP 760) Safety Case Required for: Spaceport Suborbital vehicle operator (spaceplane) Satellite Launcher operators; Spaceport sc for vertical launch systems (and spaceplanes if applicable) Range Safety analysis Launch system safety case 14

15 Safety Case Approach FAA-AST does not mandate safety case but has good guidelines for safety analysis (that should be followed) i.e. this would form one part of the safety argument.. FAA-AST Licensing Expected Casualty (Ec) Analysis System Safety Process Operational Safety Risk Management AND Ensures Safety of: Public AND Flight Crew & Space Flight Participants 15

16 UK HSE ALARP Principles As part of safety case, demonstrating risks are managed: Intolerable Tolerable Broadly Acceptable ALARP means that residual risk levels have been reduced to a level that is As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) This means that operators (both spaceplane and spaceport) should demonstrate that further risk reduction measures (in time, cost and effort) would be grossly disproportionate to benefit gained

17 Acceptable Levels of Safety (public perception & acceptability of risk) Aircraft: Hull Loss Rate 1 in 10 million per flight (equivalent of 0.01 accidents per 100,000 flights) North Sea Helicopter Ops (transportation of workers) 1.35 accidents per 100,000 flights Military Fast Jet Target 2 per 100,000 flights; (was much higher until 2010 and reliability and less low level ops and combat missions) UAVs (Reaper/Predator) 3 to 5 accidents per 100,000 flights (was 30 per 100,000 initially and reliability now better) 10 to 100 accidents per 100,000????? Space Shuttle 1 in 90 per mission (circa 1000 accidents per 100,000) 17

18 Summary Spaceflight is risky, but with properly derived safety requirements and analysis the risks could be managed to a Tolerable level The UK has different operating requirements, including; populated areas, busy airspace, busy shipping, weather, HSE considerations etc. Satellite Launchers require isolated spaceport with specific safety range for expended stages Effective Safety Management Systems implemented by Suitably Qualified & Experienced Personnel (SQEP) is key 18

19 Thank you for your attention happy to answer any questions Dr Andy Quinn, MSc PhD CEng MRAeS 19