Mark Elliott, Chairman CITAC Africa Ltd. Geneva, May 2012

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1 AFRICA 60 years of petroleum supply Mark Elliott, Chairman CITAC Africa Ltd Geneva, May 2012

2 Contents: s: WARP and the majors s: NOC s refineries for all s Phibro makes inroads, Stinnes in Nigeria s: SIR exporter, ME refineries and new players s: PH ref & Nigerian JV s -Traders get stronger s: Withdrawal of majors Traders take over

3 s: WARP and the MAJORS

4 1950 s WARP and the majors WARP = West African Replenishment Programme run by Mobil and Shell Monthly requirements submitted to WARP by African marketers Alternate months- 30kt mixed cargo vessels Shell out of Curacao refinery, Mobil from UK First refineries built Durban 1954, Luanda 1958 South Africa (Durban) fed parts of South East Africa deficit fed from BP Aden refinery

5 Map of 1950 s African supply Show arrows from Curacao and UK Thames Arrows from Durban to Zim/Zam Arrows from Yemen to East Africa 1950s Supply routes

6 s: NOC s refineries i for all

7 1960 s NOC s and refineries for all Independence (Ghana 1958 ) led to demands for National Airlines, National Oil Companies and the like Refineries built in Kenya, Senegal, Cote d Ivoire, Gabon, Tunisia. Morocco, Sudan, Eritrea etc 4 identical 20mb/d refineries built by ENI in Ghana, Zaire, Tanzania and Zambia Port Harcourt refinery built in Nigeria in 1962 by Shell/BP Imports stated being taken over by tenders issued by newly created NOC s Zimbabwe refinery closed by sanctions

8 Map of Refinery construction in Africa Map showing the 54 refineries take data from page 7 of the Refining report (James)

9 s:phibro makes inroads, Stinnes in Nigeria

10 1970 s 1970 s:phibro makes inroads, Stinnes in Nigeria i NOC tenders for crude and products often won by Phibro Patrick de Barros led the Phibro team - Many well known traders came from this team Marc Rich broke from Phibro and began to compete especially on Tunisian and Nigerian crudes (later Angolan) Petrobras then Stinnes hold Nigerian crude for product swap contract More refineries built (Algeria, Libya, Congo) - demand for small crude cargoes grows South Africa takes over supply of the South Algeria, Libya becomes a major exporters

11 Port limits increasingly constrain supply for Standard Africa port map from AR p34 traders Porto Nouadhibou Grande Nouakchott Dakar Banjul Bissau Conakry Freetown Monrovia Malabo Cap Lopez Pointe Noire Banana Limbe Douala Bata Luanda Ango Ango Port Sudan Massawa Assab Djibouti Berbera Mogadishu Mombasa Dar es Salaam Victoria 30, MT cargoes 25,000 MT max cargoes 10,000 MT max cargoes Beira Nacala Toamasina Walvis Bay Port Louis Saldanha Bay Cape Town Mossel Bay Port Elizabeth Maputo Richards Bay Durban East London

12 Port limits increasingly constrain supply for Standard Africa port map from AR p34 traders Malabo

13 s: SIR exports, Mid East refineries and new players

14 1980 s SIR exports, Mid East refineries and new players 1982 SIR expansion and hydrocracker surplus products Gulf (Chevron) sign processing deal small cargo supply to WAF customers Refineries built in Kuwait, Jubail etc. New supply sources to East Africa, Somalia, Ethiopia etc Refineries begin to close Lome, Monrovia, Asab Chevron dominates WAF clean/fuel, processes in SIR, SOGARA, SOZIR, Elf follows then Total Sonara, Kaduna and PH refineries built Marc Rich/Sonangol JV

15 3 small Maps 1)Clean Supply to WAF (especially showing SIR and Sonara exports) 2) Clean EAF supply ( from our old AR s) 3) Fuel imports/exports (see p 31 of AR) WCA Clean Product Supply Routes Atlantic Basin GASOIL NWE GASOLINE NWE/Med 0.5mn MT 1.5mn MT Gabon GASOLINE (13.8mn MT) GASOIL (9.1mn MT) GASOLINE India GASOIL India, Middle East

16 Routes for supply into Africa become established

17 s: Pt Harcourt refinery & Nigerian JV s Traders get stronger

18 1990 s Port Harcourt, Nigerian JV s traders get stronger In 1988 PH refinery y( (180mb/d) had been built to meet growing domestic demand Demand collapses and NNPC convert PH to export ( Bonny Export terminal). Calson/Hyson created. Duke, Nigermed etc Refineries have problems -Nigerian imports rise Traders compete for Nigerian imports and other major import markets (find homes for Euro mogas) Vitol -Ghana, Total - East Africa, Addax - Senegal

19 s: Withdrawal of majors Traders take over

20 Refining departure of the majors 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Gouv ernement Majors Non-majors

21 Marketing Total, the only remaining major

22 Vivo Energy (Vitol/Helios/Shell) Vivo Energy launched in 7 countries Dec 2011; On completion in all 14 countries (exp. End-2012), Vivo Energy will operate more than 1,300 retail stations and around 1.2mn m³ of storage Shell and Vivo Lubricants: Shell and Vivo Lubricants: blending capacity of around 120,000mt (in 7 countries)

23 Puma Energy (Trafigura) In 2011 Puma Energy: - acquired Chevron s Namibia marketing business (Sep); - completed acquisition of BP Botswana, BP Namibia, 75% stake in BP Zambia, 50% stake in BP Tanzania, and 50% stake in BP Malawi. - Sold 20% stake to Sonangol in Sep 11

24 Puma Energy Presence in Africa After KenolKobil buyout Marketing operations Non-marketing operations

25 AOG>>Emerging Capital Partners

26 Kenol- Kobil/ OiLibya future?

27 Import restrictions vary widely

28 7. What next?

29 CITAC Africa Ltd Belgrave House 76 Buckingham Palace Road London, SW1W 9TQ UK Tel: +44 (0) Web: CITAC is a registered trademark. Any reproduction of information contained within this presentation requires CITAC s permission.

Africa. Display Transparency 6 on the overhead. Explain to students that Africa is the

Africa. Display Transparency 6 on the overhead. Explain to students that Africa is the 3S 4S 1S 2S 3N 4N Banjul Bissau SIERRA LEONE 5N MADEIRA IS. CANARY IS. (SPAIN) (disputed) Dakar Freetown (PORTUGAL) GAMBIA Bamako Conakry Monrovia Rabat BURKINA FASO 1W Accra Lomé ~ Niamey BENIN Algiers