Mozambique Food Security Outlook April to September 2009

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Mozambique Food Security Outlook April to September 2009 InMarch,moderatefoodinsecuritywasfoundin most of southern Tete and parts of Manica, Zambézia,andcoastalNampulaprovinces(Figure 1).

distributionofrainsandlocalizedpestoutbreaks.

weathershocks,highfoodprices,andconstraints onaccesstofood,water,andinputs.

insecure due to the effectsofweathershocksandhighfoodprices.

1 Mozambique Food Security Outlook April to September 2009 InMarch,moderatefoodinsecuritywasfoundin most of southern Tete and parts of Manica, Zambézia,andcoastalNampulaprovinces(Figure 1). Aside from these areas, the majority of householdsinthecountryhavenormalaccessto food for this time of year, despite a moderate decline in overall production due to poor distributionofrainsandlocalizedpestoutbreaks. Most households throughout the country are likelytobegenerallyfoodsecureinthenextthree tosixmonths,althoughpocketsofmoderatefood insecurity are expected due to factors including weathershocks,highfoodprices,andconstraints onaccesstofood,water,andinputs. FromApriltoJune,despitethemainharvest,poor and very poor households in northern Maputo, northern and southern Sofala, and southern Inhambane and Tete provinces are expected to remain moderately food insecure due to the effectsofweathershocksandhighfoodprices. FromJulytoSeptember,moderatefoodinsecurity willlikelyextendtopoorandverypoorhouseholds in other districts in southern and parts of central Mozambique.Interventions addressing access to food,water,inputs,andhealthservicesmaybeneededtowardstheendofthisperiodanduntilthenextmajorharvest inmarch/april2010. Seasonalcalendarandcriticalevents Figure 1. Estimated food security conditions, March 2009 For more information on FEWS NET s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: Source: FEWS NET Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET MOZAMBIQUE Av. FPLM, 2698, Maputo Tel/fax: mind@fews.net FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC info@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

2 MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook April to September 2009 Currentfoodsecurityconditions Generally,climateconditionshavebeenfavorableinmostofthecountryand,asseasonalcropsarebeingharvested,food security conditions are improving significantly, especially for those households dependent on crop production for the majorityoftheirfoodneeds.withtheexceptionoflocalizedareasincentralandsouthernmozambique,whereweather shocksaffectedproduction,householdsaregenerallyfoodsecurethroughoutthecountry.evenwiththemoderatedecline inoverallproductionduetotheseweathershocks,foodisavailableinmostmarkets.however,foodaccessissomewhat impeded by maize prices that are currently above both the fiveyear average and last year s prices, likely due to a combinationoffactorsincluding:poormaizeproductionduringthe2007/08productionseason,localpurchasesoflarge quantitiesofmaizebyinternationalinstitutions,andincreaseddemandformaizefromemergentlocalindustries.middle incomeandbetteroffhouseholdsaregenerallyabletoaccessmaizedespitethesehigherprices,butaccessisdifficultfor thosepoorandverypoorhouseholdsthatrelyonthemarket.whilehouseholdstendtoconsumetheirownproduceat thistimeofyear,turningtothemarkettopurchaseothergoods,poorandverypoorhouseholdswhoseproductionwas insufficientwillhavedifficultyaccessingthisstaple. ProductionprospectsarelessfavorableinnorthernMaputoProvince;southernGazaProvince;southernSofalaProvince; andsouthernteteprovince,resultingfromacombinationofpoorlydistributedrainfallandpestinfestations.becauseof lastyear sdroughtconditions,wildfoodswere,untilrecently,servingasthebasicstapleforpoorhouseholds,whohave beenspendingmuchoftheirtimecollectingandpreparingtheseleaves,seeds,andfruits.currently,theconsumptionof wild foods is being gradually replaced by consumption of this season s production.in a normal year, even during the hungerperiod,wildfoodsareonlyconsumedasacomplementaryfood. Field information suggests that in the northern districts of Maputo Province and southern districts of Gaza and Tete provinces,thereliefprovidedfromthisseason sharvestswillbeshortlived.intheseareas,seasonalrainfallbeganwellbut endedabruptly,andthiswilllikelyperpetuatetheeffectsoflastyear sdrought.mosthouseholdproductionwilllastonly throughjuly,afterwhichmanyhouseholdswilldependonmarketpurchases.afterseptember,itisanticipatedthatpoor andverypoorhouseholdsintheseareaswillbegintoemploynegativecopingstrategiessuchasreducingthenumberof dailymealsandrefrainingfromsendingchildrentoschool,giventheirlimitedcapacitytoexpandtheircoping. Inmostofthecountry,foodpricesareexpectedtodeclineinApril,followingnormalseasonaltrends.However,actual prices are unlikely to fall to levels normally seen at this time of year (Figure 2).For example, in Gorongosa, in central Mozambique s Sofala Province, maize prices, which are more than three times their average, have begun declining, followingnormalseasonaltrends.however,evenwiththisdecreases,retailmaizepricesremainatlevelshigherthanlast yearandthefiveyearaverage. Figure 2. Nominal retail prices for maize through March 2009 in Gorongosa and Maputo Source: SIMA Astherainsease,roadconditionswillimproveandlocalmarketswillbecomemoreaccessible.Recentlyharvestedcrops arenowreportedlyavailableinvariousmarkets,especiallyinthesouthernandcentralzones,andtheagriculturalmarket 2

3 MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook April to September 2009 Systemnotesthatnewlyharvestedmaizeisbeginningto enternorthernmarketswhereearlyharvestshavebegun, though the main cereal harvests have yet to start.in addition, in some of the northern markets, last year s produceisstillavailable.pulsessuchascommonbeans and groundnut are also becoming widely available at markets. Whilefoodsecuritymonitoringisnecessaryforthewhole country,southerntete,southandnorthernsofala,south Inhambane, and northern Maputo require close monitoring of key food security factors, including: the duration of household availability of their own food production;pricesandmarketaccess;accesstoincome earningopportunities;andtheavailabilityofandreliance oncopingstrategies.themayvulnerabilityassessments will provide more detailed information on the likely assistanceneedsintheseareas. Mostlikely food security scenario April September2009 The majority of households throughout the country will begenerallyfoodsecureinthenextthreetosixmonths. Foodavailabilityandaccessisnotexpectedtobeamajor problemformosthouseholdsduringthistime.according totheministryofagriculture searlywarningandcrops Department in the Directorate of Agrarian Services, national cereal production is expected to grow by 17 percentfromlastyear.theproductionofpulses(beans and groundnuts) is expected to increase by seven percent,asiscassavaproduction. However, from April to June, in northern Maputo (Magude), South Inhambane (Panda) and southern Tete (Magoe, Changara, and Cabora Bassa), and Sofala (ChembaandMachanga),poorandverypoorhouseholds are expected to remain moderately food insecure following a belowaverage main harvest that resulted frompoorrainfallthisseason,perpetuatingtheeffectsof the 2007/08 drought. Although projected cereal availability will likely be below average given the poor distribution of rainfall in these areas, household food stocks are expected to be somewhat replenished by newly harvested crops, especially maize and cowpeas. Foodstocksformosthouseholdsintheseareaswilllast fortwotothreemonths,andthereafterhouseholdswill rely mostly on the market to meet there food needs. Althoughaseasonaldeclineoffoodpricesisexpectedto occur, prices will remain above fiveyear average levels, limitingfoodaccessforpoorhouseholdswithfoodstocks Figure 3. Most-likely food security scenario, April- June 2009 Source: FEWS NET Figure 3. Most-likely food security scenario, July- September 2009 Source: FEWS NET lastinglessthanthreemonths.theimpactwillbemostsevereamonglaborandpurchasedependentverypoorandpoor households.interventionstoincreaseaccesstofoodamongthesehouseholdsarerecommended. 3

4 MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook April to September 2009 FromJulytoSeptember,moderatefoodinsecuritywilllikelyextendtoverypoorandpoorhouseholdsinadditionaldistricts intheinteriorofgazaprovince(chigubo,chicualacualaandmabalane)andtete(mutara).theearlyendofrainsinthese areascouldlimittheproductivepotentialofthesecondseason,whichnormallystartssoonafterthemainharvestinapril, withharvestsbeginninginaugustinsouthernandcentralregions.theearlyendofrainswillreducethepotentialforthe secondseasontomitigatethenegativeimpactsoflowmainseasonproductionandotheradverseconditions,suchashigh foodprices,amongthesepopulations.additionalrainsduringthisperiodandlowtemperatureswouldimprovesecond seasonprospects.thesadcdroughtmonitoringcentre sforecastthroughaprilindicatesagreaterlikelihoodofnormalto abovenormalrainsfromapriltojune. Householdsintheaboveareaswilllikelymakeupforsometheirdeficitsbyemployingcopingstrategiesincluding:skipping meals and reducing diet qualitywhich are viewed locally as signs of stress but not necessarily as extreme coping mechanism,sellingnaturalproductssuchasgrass,buildingpoles,sellingfirewood,producingandsellingcharcoal,selling domestic animals, informal labor, andhunting.thesehouseholds will sell labor towealthier households, particularly in preparationforthenextmainagriculturalseason.additionalfoodassistancebeyondnormalsafetynetprogrammingwill likelyberequiredafterseptemberifthesecondseasonharvest(augustandseptember)doesnotperformwell,andiffood pricesremainunaffordableintheseareas. Octobervulnerabilityassessmentwillindicatetheevolutionoffoodsecurityintheseareasandwillrecommendappropriate mitigationinterventions.interventionsaddressingaccesstofood,water,inputsandhealthservicescouldbeneededuntil thenextmajorharvestinmarch/april2010. Table 1. Events which could affect the food security outlook Possibleeventsinthe next6monthsthat GeographicFocus wouldchangethemost Impactsonfoodsecurityconditions Area likelyscenariointhis area SouthernTete Province Northernand southernsofala NorthernMaputo Province InteriorofGaza Province,and southinhambane Wettersecond season Staplefoodprices fallsignificantly Animalpricesfall Driersecondseason Staplefoodpricesfall significantly Staplefoodpricesfall significantly Staplefoodprices remainhigh Waterforhumanand animalconsumption scarce Satisfactorysecondseasonproduction willincreasefoodavailabilityandincome fromvegetablesales Reducedfoodpricesbenefitconsumer households,particularlythosethatare marketdependentandverypoororpoor Deterioratingtermsoftrade(cereal animal)reducesfoodaccessfor householdswithanimals Agroclimaticconditionsduringthesecond seasonarenotfavorableandproduction fails.foodavailabilityandlabor opportunitiesdeclinesignificantly Reducedfoodpricesbenefitconsumer households,particularlythosethatare marketdependentandverypoororpoor Reducedfoodpricesbenefitconsumer households,particularlythosethatare marketdependentandverypoororpoor Otherwise,highfoodpriceswilllimitfood access Highfoodpricesaggravatefoodinsecurity, particularlyduringjulyseptember Foodinsecuritywillbeexacerbatedbya lackofwaterforconsumptionasearlyas August.Pooranimalandpastureconditions affectlivestockbodyconditionsandvalue. Likelihoodof occurrence* Unlikely Unlikely Likely Likely Unlikely Keyvariablesto monitor Quantityand distributionof secondseason rainfall;staplefood andanimalprices Quantityand distributionof rainfall;staplefood prices Unlikely Staplefoodprices Likely Likely Quantityand distributionof secondseasonrains; wateravailability; staplefoodand animalprices 4

5 MOZAMBIQUE Food Security Outlook April to September 2009 *Probabilitylevels Likely Unlikely Veryunlikely Description Likelytooccurinthetimeperiodundercurrentconditions Couldoccurinthetimeperiodifconditionschangedmoderately Couldoccurinthetimeperiodifconditionschangedsignificantly 5

ANNEX: Mozambique Monthly Price Bulletin April 2009 Maize, rice, and beans are the most important food commodities.maizeisthestaplefoodforthepoor,withrice mostoftenusedasasubstitute.

6 ANNEX: Mozambique Monthly Price Bulletin April 2009 Maize, rice, and beans are the most important food commodities.maizeisthestaplefoodforthepoor,withrice mostoftenusedasasubstitute.beansareimportanttoall wealthgroups.eachofthemarketsrepresentedhereactas indicatorsforthebroaderregion.teteisrepresentativefor the province by the same name, Nampula is the main marketinthenorthandisrepresentativefortheregion,and has linkages with the interior of Zambezia and Nampula provinces and coastal Nampula. Beira, Gorongosa, and Manicaareindicatorsforthecenter.Beiramarkethaslinks withthegorongosamarket,whichhaslinks withsouthern markets.thechokweandmaputomarketsinthesouthare linked to the Chimoio, Manica, and Gorongosa markets in thecentralregion.chókweisthereferencemarketforthe southernregion,exceptmaputo,thecapital. Monthlypricesaresuppliedbythemarketinformationsystemin Mozambique. i

7 ANNEX: Mozambique Monthly Price Bulletin April 2009 ii

8 ANNEX: Mozambique Monthly Price Bulletin April 2009 iii

MOZAMBIQUE mvam Bulletin #5: December 2016

MOZAMBIQUE mvam Bulletin #5: December 2016 Maize meal prices fall in Gaza Key points: Maize grain in Xai-Xai and maize meal in Marara remained expensive in December Prices dropped for rice, maize meal and cooking oil in Xai-Xai, and for maize meal