in Southern Africa Figure 1: Recorded Informal Cross Border Maize Trade in DRC, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa Tanzania, Zambia & Zimbabwe

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1 Monthly Highlights: Over 17, MT of informal cross border trade in maize, rice and beans captured in Southern Africa since the beginning of the current marketing season in April. Mozambique is the largest source of informal trade in maize, rice and beans this marketing season. Retail maize prices continue to decline, as food supply situation remains satisfactory in Malawi, Zambia and parts of Mozambique. Inside this issue: Informal Cross Border Food Trade in Southern Africa Issue 8 Overall summary of trade flows uary 7 By the end of uary, close to 17, MT of trade in maize (9, MT), rice (5,8 MT) and beans (9, MT) had been captured by the Southern Africa informal cross border food trade monitoring Figure 1: Recorded Informal Cross Border Maize Trade in DRC, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa Tanzania, Zambia & Zimbabwe / M arketing / M arketing /7 M arketing Apr May Jul Feb system since the start of the marketing season in April. The combined volume of trade in all the three commodities is 37% down on the amount captured during a similar period in the last season. On commodity by commodity basis, the volume of maize traded is down by 3%; rice trade is down 63% and bean trade is down 3 per cent. About 8% of the maize captured (7, MT) was exported to Malawi by Mozambique. The DRC was the second largest importer (from Zambia) accounting for 6% of the trade followed by Zambia (importing from Tanzania) at 5%. Trade in rice was led by exports from Mozambique to Malawi (1,7 MT), followed closely by exports from Zambia (1,5 MT) to the DRC. Meanwhile Malawi imported 63% of total beans traded, comprising,8 MT of the imports from Mozambique and 3, MT from Tanzania. The DRC was the second largest importer of beans (from Zambia) accounting for % of the trade. Figure : Recorded Informal Cross Border Food Trade in Rice & Beans DRC, Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa Tanzania, Zambia & Zimbabwe Summary of maize trade flows Maize price trends Formal exports from South Africa Summary of trade in rice and beans / / /7 Ap M Jn Jl A S O N D J F Mr Ap M Jn Jl A S O N D J F Mr Rice Beans Summary tables 5 Summary tables and Map 6 A Technical Steering Committee (TSC) of the Cross Border Food Trade Monitoring Initiative, with funding from USAID and WFP, has prepared this report based o data collected by a network of border monitors based at selected border points. Borders throughout the region have been surveyed and the most active and important borders have been selected for monitoring. The border monitors record data on a daily basis, and transmit it to a central location every week for collation and analysis. Currently, the informal cross border trade monitoring system includes 9 borders, with new borders being added as necessary. Data from borders surrounding Malawi are collected and managed by FEWS NET an WFP Malawi, while the rest of the borders are managed by the TSC. Address comments/suggestions to the following addresses: pmdladla@fews.net, simon.dradri@wfp.org; eric.kenefick@wfp.org;

2 Page Informal Cross Border Food Trade in Southern Africa Summary of maize trade flows The volume of maize traded was 8, MT in uary 7 compared with, MT in the same month last year, representing a reduction of about 6%. Unlike last season, when Tanzania emerged as the largest exporter, this season the trade dynamics have changed and the trade is driven by exports from Mozambique to Malawi (8% of the trade) and by exports by Zambia to DRC (6%). As reported in previous reports, trade between northern Mozambique and southern Malawi is normally spurred by lack of internal markets in the former (and favourable price differentials) and high population and marginal maize production in the latter. With harvest prospects looking positive in Malawi (the largest importer) and Zambia, it is likely that informal maize trade volumes may decline further in the next marketing season. Meanwhile, there was a large and unusual export of maize (, MT) from Mozambique to Zimbabwe during the month through the Cuchamano border (Mozambique). This export will be investigated further in our next report. Table 1 Informal cross-border trade in maize / / 7 (Apr- ) (Apr- 7) Tanzania Zambia 3,699 13, ,9 13,17,995 Zambia Zimbabwe 13, Zambia Malawi, Zambia Tanzania Malawi Zambia Zambia DRC 8,318, ,656 5,71 Mozambique Malawi 71,9 71, ,15 73,665 Malawi Tanzania ,99 Tanzania Malawi,656 8,86 18, , Mozambique Zimbabwe 5,7 5,8 Mozambique Zambia Malawi Mozambique Zambia Mozambique - 55 Zimbabwe Mozambique South Africa Zimbabwe - 1, ,655 3 Total Traded (MT) 11,99 177,959 19,99 8, 139,89 91,936 Maize Price Trends at Selected Border Points Retail maize prices remain generally stable this uary (see Figures 3, & 5) contrary to the expectation that prices levels would be high (and rising) during what is normally the peak of the hunger season in the monitored countries. This can be explained by the good harvests in Malawi, Zambia and Tanzania in the last growing season. In uary, retail prices declined across the board, with the sharpest decline registered at Nakonde border (Zambia/DRC), where prices dipped by 8% from US$.18 per kilogram in ember to US$.13 per kilogram in uary. This is followed by the 19% price decline at Muloza border between Malawi and Mozambique (US$.11 to US$.9 per kilogram). Price differentials between Kasumuru (Tanzania) and Songwe (Malawi) have caused changes in the direction of flow of trade (See figure 3): Between April and ober, retail prices on the Tanzanian side were higher than those on the Malawian side causing a net flow of maize into Tanzania. But since ember, prices in Tanzania declined (due to increased maize supply on the Tanzanian side) and remained generally lower than on the Malawi side, resulting in change of the direction of flow of trade from Tanzania into Malawi. Inter-seasonal prices also show significant declines across the borders. Generally, the Malawi and Zambia borders have registered the biggest declines, reflecting satisfactory internal maize supplies. At Muloza (Malawi), retail prices have dropped from US$.36 per kilogram in uary last year to US$.9 per kilogram this uary, representing a difference of 75%. The second largest inter-season decrease in prices is the Nakonde (Zambia) border where prices dropped by 63% from US$.35 per kilogram to US$.13 per kilogram during the same periods. It is expected that prices will remain depressed over the next two months, i.e., to the end of the marketing season. With even better harvest prospects forecasted for Malawi for example, producers are likely to start dumping last year s produce in preparation for the new produce.

3 Issue 8 Page 3 Figures 3, & 5: Retail maize prices in selected border points (US$ cents per kg) Malawi - Muloza (9) Mozambique - Muloza (9) M ozambique - M achipanda () Jul Feb Apr May Jul 7 Malawi - Songwe () Zambia - Nakonde (3) Tanzania - Kasumuru () Jul Feb Apr May Jul 7 Zambia - Kasumbalesa () DRC - Kasumbalesa () Jul Feb Apr May Jul 7 Formal exports from South Africa According to the South Africa Grain Information Service as at the end of uary, Zimbabwe had officially imported 13, MT of maize from South Africa. However, as Zimbabwe s maize shortfall is estimated at around 85, MT, current imports will still leave a substantial import gap to be filled. Zimbabwe s official import programme remains unclear; the country, through the Grain keting Board, signed a supply contract of 1, MT with the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) of Zambia, but only, MT had been uplifted by Zimbabwe by the end of uary. In a separate arrangement, through a private trader, Zimbabwe has bought 1,7 MT from Zambia. This maize has already been delivered. In the / marketing year, Zimbabwe imported Fig 6. Formal Exports by South Africa Malawi million MT of maize from South Africa, which represented more 3 Mozambique than 85 percent of planned cereal imports of 1. million MT while 5 the projected food deficit was close to 1. million MT. Zambia Meanwhile, Mozambique imported almost to 9 MT of white maize from South Africa in uary, bringing this season s total to just over 7, MT. With the floods that has hit parts of central and southern Mozambique, and the resulting damages to crops, it is likely that formal imports from South Africa may be scaled up to meet the Zimbabwe increased demand. Apr May Jul

4 Page Informal Cross Border Food Trade in Southern Africa Table. Informal cross border trade in rice (MT) / / 7 Apr- Apr-7 Tanzania Zambia Malawi Tanzania Tanzania Malawi Zambia DRC 1,6 1, ,561 1,53 Zambia Malawi Malawi Zambia Zambia Zimbabwe Mozambique Malawi,53 1, ,68 1,686 Malawi Mozambique Mozambique Zimbabwe South Africa Zimbabwe Total Traded (MT) 16,355 16, ,595 5,8 there has been a resurgence of bean trade since ober, driven by exports by Tanzania and Mozambique to Malawi. Summary of trade in rice and beans The trade in rice and beans is summarized in Tables and 3. As noted earlier, both commodities are trading at much lower volumes than last year at the same time. However, there has been a resurgence of bean trade since ober, driven by exports from Tanzania and Mozambique to Malawi. Malawi has this season surpassed DRC as the largest importer of beans and its imports account for 63% of the trade. In the last marketing season, DRC bean imports from Zambia accounted for 57% of the trade. Rice trade has been low this marketing season. With only two months to the end of the marketing season, nearly 6, MT of rice has been traded, representing a decline in trade of 6 per cent compared to the amount traded over a similar period last year. Rice is normally a substitute to maize in many of the monitored countries; some of the decline could therefore be due to the improved availability of maize. Table 3. Informal cross border trade in beans (MT) / / 7 Apr- Apr-7 Tanzania Zambia Zambia Tanzania Zambia DRC 1,19 8,31 3 8,,33 Malawi Mozambique Zambia Zimbabwe Mozambique Malawi,997,71,718,775 Malawi Tanzania Mozambique Zimbabwe 67 7 Malawi Zambia Tanzania Malawi 3, ,793 3,19 South Africa Zimbabwe Total Traded (MT) 16,816 1, ,36 13,58 9,1

5 Issue 8 Page 5 Annex 1: Trade Tables Table : Informal Cross Border trade in Maize (MT) Jul / Apr- Tanzania Zambia 796 1, , ,685,1 1,73 13, Jul- - - / Apr- Jul- - Zambia Zimbabwe,66 5,68,816 13, Zambia Malawi , Zambia Tanzania Malawi Zambia Zambia DRC 56 3, 5,8 8,318,77 1, , Mozambique Malawi 33,358,33 17,38 71,9 9, 6,866 8,981 6,37 71,18 7,79 7, Malawi Tanzania , Tanzania Malawi 39,395, ,11 33,61 9,579 8, Mozambique Zimbabwe Mozambique Zambia Malawi Mozambique Zambia Mozambique Zimbabwe Mozambique South Africa Zimbabwe , Total Traded (MT) 37,965 3,5 31,51 11,99 33,133 38,579 8,168 58,79 177,959 31,315 9,73 85 Table 5: Informal Cross Border trade in Rice (MT) Jul / Apr- Jul- - - / Apr- Jul- - Tanzania Zambia Malawi Tanzania Tanzania Malawi Zambia DRC ,6 6,16 5, , Zambia Malawi Malawi Zambia Zambia Zimbabwe Mozambique Malawi ,53 1, ,691 1, Malawi Mozambique Mozambique Zimbabwe South Africa Zimbabwe Total Traded (MT) ,355 8, 6,5 1,1 1,33 16,6 588,6 79

6 Page 6 Informal Cross Border Food Trade in Southern Africa Annex I (continued) Table 6: Informal cross border trade in beans (MT) Jul / Apr- Jul- - - / Apr- Jul- - Tanzania Zambia Zambia Tanzania Zambia DRC 3,15 3,775 5,9 1,19 3,593 3, , ,558 Mozambique Malawi Zambia Zimbabwe Mozambique Malawi 1, , , , , Malawi Tanzania Mozambique Zimbabwe Malawi Zambia Tanzania Malawi ,13 1,39,59-5,7 South Africa Zimbabwe Total Traded (MT) 5,79 5,158 5,866 16,816,577 5,756,57 1,63 1,33 1,39,31 3,36 UN World Food Programme Regional Bureau for Southern Africa, Johannesburg RSA and FEWSNET Regional Office, Pretoria RSA For more information see: