MOZAMBIQUE mvam Bulletin #8: March 2017

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Maize grain prices have fallen throughout the country Key points: In March, maize grain prices fell almost everywhere in anticipation of the green harvest Maize meal prices in most districts are

Kors Methodology Food security outlook The March survey was conducted using live calls for a sample of 98 traders across 23 districts in the provinces of Gaza, Tete, Manica, Maputo, Sofala and

The questions focused on the prices of basic foods such as maize grain, maize meal, imported rice, cowpeas and cooking oil, with an open-ended question to gauge traders perception of the food

1 Maize grain prices have fallen throughout the country Key points: In March, maize grain prices fell almost everywhere in anticipation of the green harvest Maize meal prices in most districts are below the year-on-year national average Rice prices fell from February except in Chigubo, Mabalane, Doa, Marara and Magude Maize grain and cowpeas are still not available in most markets WFP/Michael Kors Methodology Food security outlook The March survey was conducted using live calls for a sample of 98 traders across 23 districts in the provinces of Gaza, Tete, Manica, Maputo, Sofala and Inhambane. The questions focused on the prices of basic foods such as maize grain, maize meal, imported rice, cowpeas and cooking oil, with an open-ended question to gauge traders perception of the food security situation in their areas. However, some of the traders who generally sell these items had no stocks at the time of the calls. Consequently, many of the reported averages are based on fewer than three observations per district (Table 1). Phone surveys contain inherent response biases; therefore, the bulletin reports patterns and trends rather than precise estimates. The green harvest has meant falling prices for maize grain across the country. Prices continue to fluctuate as the harvest season progresses. Staple prices are expected to ease gradually, as most households will be accessing their own production (source: FEWS NET). However, the early harvest was affected by localised flooding in January and February. 1

2 Source: mvam, March 2017 Source: mvam, March 2017 Table 1: Districts with three or more observations Maize grain Maize meal Rice Cowpeas Cooking oil Chibuto Bilene Macia Bilene Macia Bilene Macia Chibuto Chibuto Chibuto Chicualacuala Chicualacuala Chicualacuala Gaza Chigubo Chigubo Chigubo Chokwe Chokwe Chokwe Guija Guija Massangena Massangena Massangena Xai-Xai Xai-Xai Tete Doa Doa Maravia Maravia Maravia Inhambane Funhalouro Funhalouro Funhalouro Govuro Govuro Govuro Maputo Magude Magude Magude Table 2: Number of traders selling food commodities Total calls Maize grain Maize meal Rice Cowpeas Cooking oil Gaza Tete Sofala Inhambane Manica Maputo

Source: mvam, March 2017 and CIMA Maize meal continues to be most expensive in Tete Maize meal was most expensive in Mabalane in Gaza (MZN65.00/kg), Maravia in Tete (MZN63.

However, prices fell in Chokwe, Massingir, Bilene-Macia, Doa, Tete Cidade and Govuro compared to February thanks to the harvest, the increased availability of food on the market and food assistance

3 Source: mvam, March 2017 and CIMA Maize meal continues to be most expensive in Tete Maize meal was most expensive in Mabalane in Gaza (MZN65.00/kg), Maravia in Tete (MZN63.00/kg) and Macossa in Manica (MZN61.00/kg) (Figure 1). However, prices fell in Chokwe, Massingir, Bilene-Macia, Doa, Tete Cidade and Govuro compared to February thanks to the harvest, the increased availability of food on the market and food assistance in these districts. The cheapest maize meal was in Govuro (MZN32.00/kg), Chokwe (MZN34.00/kg) and Massingir (MZN35.00/kg). Prices in all surveyed districts are below the March 2016 average except those in the provinces of Tete and Manica. Map 1: Retail price for maize meal (MZN/kg) by district Figure 1: Retail price for maize meal (MZN/kg) by district Source: mvam, March

Source: mvam, March 2017 and CIMA Maize meal continues to be most expensive in Tete Maize grain prices in all assessed districts have fallen since February 2017 except in Doa in Tete province (Figure

Thus, there is still limited availability of main grain in the markets. Across the surveyed districts in March, the highest maize grain prices were reported in Chibuto (Gaza) at MZN28.25/kg.

4 Source: mvam, March 2017 and CIMA Maize meal continues to be most expensive in Tete Maize grain prices in all assessed districts have fallen since February 2017 except in Doa in Tete province (Figure 2). Doa has experienced irregular rainfall and farms have also been invaded by elephants in some parts. While the green harvest has started in other districts, the main harvest is yet to begin. Thus, there is still limited availability of main grain in the markets. Across the surveyed districts in March, the highest maize grain prices were reported in Chibuto (Gaza) at MZN28.25/kg. Prices were second highest in Macossa (Manica) at MZN27.08/kg. The cheapest maize grain was in Maravia (Tete) at MZN16.66/kg. Map 2: Retail maize grain prices (MZN/kg) by district Figure 2: Retail price for maize grain (MZN/kg) by district Source: mvam, March

Source: mvam, March 2017 and CIMA Source: mvam, March 2017 and CIMA Source: mvam, March 2017 and CIMA High rice prices in Marara In Mozambique, rice is a maize substitute and most of it is imported.

allowed more traders to stock it. Nevertheless, rice prices remain way above the national five-year average and the March 2016 national average.

5 Source: mvam, March 2017 and CIMA Source: mvam, March 2017 and CIMA Source: mvam, March 2017 and CIMA High rice prices in Marara In Mozambique, rice is a maize substitute and most of it is imported. In most assessed districts, it became cheaper in March compared to February 2017, perhaps a result of the local currency gaining value against the US dollar and the South African rand, which has allowed more traders to stock it. Nevertheless, rice prices remain way above the national five-year average and the March 2016 national average. The highest rice price at province level was reported in Gaza, followed by Tete. Within the provinces, retail prices were highest in the districts of Marara (MZN70.00/kg), Mabalane (MZN65.00/kg) and Chigubo (MZN61.67/kg). The high prices in Mabalane and Chigubo could be attributed to their distance from Xai Xai district, where most of the rice is imported into the province, and inaccessibility of the roads caused by the rains, which has made it difficult for traders to transport their goods. At the province level, cooking oil was most expensive in Gaza followed by Inhambane. It was cheapest in Tete. Among the districts, the cheapest cooking oil was in Magoe (Tete) and Mossurize (Manica), possibly because of their proximity to Zimbabwe, a source of imported cooking oil. By contrast, Chigubo and Chibuto (Gaza) had the highest cooking oil prices, perhaps because Chigubo is remote and relies heavily on supplies from other districts (Figure 4). Figure 3: Retail price for rice (MZN/kg) by district Figure 4: Retail price for cooking oil (MZN/litre) by district Scarcity of cowpeas The price of cowpeas in assessed areas has remained high compared to the five-year and March averages (Figure 5). The highest province averages w ere recorded in Gaza (MZN120.00/kg). Prices in all surveyed districts were above the March 2016 national average, except in Marara and Xai-Xai which had the cheapest cowpeas at MZN45.00/kg. Figure 5: Retail price for cowpeas (MZN/kg) by district 5

Source: mvam, March 2017 Food stocks have improved Food scarcity has been reported by some traders, especially for maize grain

Around 50 percent of traders indicated that the food security situation in their respective areas has improved compared to

The availability of these foods has also reduced the prices of other foods.

In addition, only 20 percent of the traders reported having maize grain stocks.

A few traders in Tete, Gaza and Sofala indicated that food assistance from WFP has helped to reduce their hunger gap.

corn, peanuts, potatoes, butter beans, cucumbers, cassava and pumpkins Male trader from Moatize, Tete There is little

because we only have vegetables in our fields Female trader from Guija, Gaza The situation is becoming normal and products are

6 Source: mvam, March 2017 Food stocks have improved Food scarcity has been reported by some traders, especially for maize grain and cowpea stocks. However, the situation is improving as the harvest has started in some districts. Around 50 percent of traders indicated that the food security situation in their respective areas has improved compared to February because of the green harvest of maize, pumpkins, vegetables, etc. The availability of these foods has also reduced the prices of other foods. Following the trend of the last few months, cowpeas were not available in most markets, except in Gaza and Tete. In addition, only 20 percent of the traders reported having maize grain stocks. Around 75 percent of the traders reported the availability of maize meal, rice and cooking oil stocks. A few traders in Tete, Gaza and Sofala indicated that food assistance from WFP has helped to reduce their hunger gap. In the words of the traders Figure 6: Word cloud The situation is improving because some families have already begun harvesting corn, peanuts, potatoes, butter beans, cucumbers, cassava and pumpkins Male trader from Moatize, Tete There is little availability of food in the market due to road impassibility, hence we continue to depend on WFP s humanitarian assistance because we only have vegetables in our fields Female trader from Guija, Gaza The situation is becoming normal and products are now available on the market with stable prices Male trader from Chibabava, Sofala WFP/David Orr For further information Ute Meir Lara Carrilho Andrew Odero Arif Husain ute.meir@wfp.org lara.carrilho@wfp.org andrew.odero@wfp.org arif.husain@wfp.org mvam Resources: Website: / vam.w fp.org/ sites/ mvam_monitoring/ Blog: mvam.org Toolkit: / resources.vam.w fp.org/ mvam

MOZAMBIQUE mvam Bulletin #6: January 2017

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