GLACIERS BEHAVIOR UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE IN PAKISTAN

Transcription

1 GLACIERS BEHAVIOR UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE IN PAKISTAN Seminar proceedings held on June 4, 2008 Auditorium, P Block, Planning Commission FOOD AND AGRICULTURE SECTION PLANNING COMMISSION ISLAMABAD i

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3 Message from Deputy Chairman Pakistan has been facing food shortages in the recent years, for which water scarcity is one of the core reasons. The projected rising temperature and changing patterns of rainfall by the Climate Change experts may lead to further reduction in fresh water supply from the glaciers. This alarming situation demands immediate actions from all the concerned organizations in an integrated fashion. At this moment, the step taken by the Planning Commission to bring together all the major stakeholders on the subject of glaciers behavior under climate change and its impacts on agriculture is timely. It is expected that the stakeholders will strengthen their mutual coordination to devise a joint strategy in order to estimate the impacts of climate change on glaciers, fresh water supply and agriculture, and plan research-based adaptive and mitigation actions. The Planning Commission will extend all possible support and facilitation in policy formulation and investment interventions in this regard. M. Salman Faruqui Deputy Chairman Planning Commission of Pakistan/Federal Minister iii

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5 Foreword The issue of glaciers melting under climate change is emerging as one of the biggest challenge for planners and managers of water resources and agriculture around the world. Pakistan, being highly dependant for its irrigated agriculture on melt water originating from large scale blue gold glaciers reserves, may be one of most climate change-affected countries. Therefore, any changes in glaciers behavior will have direct impacts on agriculture and food security in Pakistan. In the face of food crises, water scarcity and environmental concerns, the subject of glaciers response to changing climate necessitates immediate attention from all the concerned organizations. This background prompted the need for bringing all major stakeholders together so that the knowledge and experiences may be shared and coordinated for an integrated effort in future. For this purpose, a seminar on glaciers behavior under climate change and its impacts on agriculture in Pakistan was organized by the planning Commission Islamabad, which provided an excellent opportunity to key stakeholders to present their on-going activities and offer suggestions for future coarse of actions. Surprisingly, large scale activities were found to be underway by different organizations but without any formal coordination. Similarly, the data is not shared properly which may lead to duplication, contradiction and waste of time on one hand and failure to formulate unified strategy on the other. That is why the glaciers water budget (the difference between snow/ice accumulation and melting) could not be determined so far. This seminar is expected to provide a solid base for an integrated approach for the policy makers, planners, managers, researchers and students. Although, the surface of glaciers myth has been scratched by the Planning Commission by coordinating the major stakeholders, more concerted efforts will be needed to understand, estimate, plan and utilize glaciers water for irrigated agriculture to ensure sustainable food security in Pakistan. Dr. Kauser A. Malik Member (F&A Section), Planning Commission Islamabad v

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7 Editor s note Climate change is the most debated global issue, both politically and scientifically. The Nobel peace prize 2007 award to International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Al Gore (former US vice president) highlighted the importance and urgency of climate change. In fact if every thing around us is changing so shall the climate. However, there is a limit to climate change, beyond which the world may not be able to sustain further economic growth. Before the closed end is reached, there is a need on all levels of society to understand climate, the scale of change, the factors behind change and the impacts on our environment and water resources. Pakistan s dependence on glaciers to feed the Indus river system, the lifeline of irrigated agriculture, demands immediate attention on climate change and its possible impacts from all concerned quarters. Nothing could be more appropriate than the right issue picked up at the right time by the right person. Dr. Kauser A. Malik, Member (F&A) Planning Commission Islamabad, discussed glaciers behavior under climate change with his friend Dr. Pervaiz Amir, senior Economist Asianics Agro. Dev-Pakistan. Realizing the importance and urgency of the subject, he decided to organize a one day seminar and bring together all the stakeholders working on climate change, glaciers and agriculture. The Planning Commission team under the leadership of Dr. Kauser A. Malik made this seminar a successful event to coordinate the major stakeholders involved in large scale activities on glaciers, climate change and irrigated agriculture. However, the contribution from Mr. Mohammad Nawaz Khan, Senior Research Associate, needs special acknowledgment for organizing the whole event and writing the draft report. Similarly Mr. M. Bashir Khetran, Mr. Faisal Jameel, Mr. Faisal Anwar, Mr. Shafique-ur-Rehman and officers from Food & Agriculture and Water Resources Section also shared their valuable time to support this initiative. This report is likely to provide a foundation for an integrated effort on glaciers study under climate change. Naseer A. Gillani Chief (Water Resource Section) vii

8 Acronyms APN CUSEC DCP F & A GCISC GCM GLOF HKH IAEA IPCC IRS IRSA MAF m.a.s.l NARC NIO PMD S & T Sq.km SRA SUPARCO TP UIB WAPDA WMO Asia Pacific Network Cubic Feet per Second Data Collection Platform Food and Agriculture Global Change Impact Study Center Global Circulation Model Glacial Lake Out-burst Flood Hindukush Karakuram Himalaya International Atomic Energy Agency International Panel on Climate Change Indus River System Indus River System Authority Million Acre Foot Meter Above Sea Level National Agriculture Research Institute National Institute of Oceanography Pakistan Meteorological Department Science and Technology Square Kilometer Senior Research Associate Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission Tibetan Plateau Upper Indus Basin Water and Power Development Authority World Meteorological Organization viii

9 Table of contents Message from Deputy Chairman...iii Foreword... v Editor s note... vii Acronyms...viii Table of contents... ix 1 INTRODUCTION Background Aim Objectives Report outline GLIMPSES OF PRESENTATIONS Presentation by the Planning Commission Main points Conclusion Presentation by Pakistan Meteorological Department Main points Conclusion Presentation by SUPARCO Main points Conclusion Presentation by Asianics Agro Dev- Pakistan Main points Conclusion Presentation by GCISC (1) Main points Conclusion Presentation by GCISC (2) Main points Conclusion Presentation by WAPDA Main Points Conclusion Presentation by PAEC Main Points Conclusion Presentation by NARC Main Points Conclusion Presentation by NIO Main Points Conclusion DISCUSSION Synopsis The way forward ix

10 4 CONCLUSIONS Annexure 1: List of presentations Annexure 2: List of participants Annexure 3: Map of the Indus Basin Irrigation System Annexure 4: Compact Disc of all presentations x

11 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background Pakistan has one of the world s largest glaciers reserves in the Karakuram-Hidukush- Himalaya ranges. More than 65 % of the fresh water resources originate in these ranges during summer and supply water to the Indus River System, the world s largest irrigation system. The irrigated land accounts for 84 % of the total Million Hectares (Mha) of cropped area ( ). Currently, the available water fell short of the existing irrigation, leaving no scope for bringing further 3.8 Mha rain-fed and 8.33 Mha waste lands under irrigation. This water scarce situation can turn into catastrophe if the melting of glaciers reserves exceeds snowfall accumulation due to climate change. Thus any change, either positive or negative, on glaciers water budget under climate change needs careful estimation and future projection so that adaptation and mitigation strategies could be formulated for sustainable use of water resources. At the moment large scale efforts are underway on glaciers, climate change and its impacts on agriculture and environment by different organizations. However, these efforts have not been properly linked together so far, due to which an integrated framework for glaciers study and mitigation strategy could not be established. For this purpose, the Planning Commission organized a seminar on June 4, 2008 on Glaciers Behavior under Climate Change and its Impacts on Agriculture in Pakistan. Overall 64 participants from 13 national and 9 international organizations participated in the seminar. Ten presentations were made by key stakeholders on climate change, glaciers melting, water resources, agriculture, sea level rise and impacts on coastal areas, application of isotope hydrology, and other related aspects. The presentations were followed by lengthy discussion. All the participants agreed that lack of data sharing, lack of coordination among the stakeholders and the absence of a unified structure on glaciers have been the major reasons for slow pace of work and contradictory statements on glaciers water budget. The Planning Commission decided to compile all the presentations in the form of a report so that to provide an integrated bench mark for further research 1

12 and action plan on glaciers response under climate change and its impacts on agriculture in Pakistan 1.2 Aim The aim of this report is to compile the proceedings of the seminar and present an integrated picture of the knowledge and experience related to climate change, glaciers behavior and its impacts on agriculture in order to provide a bench mark for relevant researchers, planners, managers and decision makers in Pakistan. 1.3 Objectives The stated aim will be achieved through the following objectives: Highlighting the main points of each presentation Identifying the central theme of each presentation Highlighting the main points of discussion held during the seminar Presenting the way forward 1.4 Report outline Section 2 highlights glimpses, main points and conclusion of all the presentations delivered during the seminar. The major points of discussion and way forward are given in Section 3. The conclusions are presented in Section 4. The original presentations are compiled in the CD which is attached at the inner side of the last cover page. 2

13 2 GLIMPSES OF PRESENTATIONS Overall ten presentations were made by the key stakeholders/organizations on various aspects of glaciers, climate change, water resources and agriculture in Pakistan. The main points, conclusion and key slides of each presentation are given in sections below. 2.1 Presentation by the Planning Commission The presentation by the Planning Commission was delivered by Mr. Naseer Ahmad Gillani (Chief Water Section) on Glaciers behavior under climate change and its impacts on agriculture in Pakistan. The main points and conclusion are given in the sections below Main points Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation: The Planning Commission has already included the assessment, monitoring, modeling and devising an action plan on climate change impacts on glaciers in its Medium Term Development Framework (MTDF) There is a need for identifying the cycle of climate change, variations in glaciers water budget, variations in water supply and demand and impacts on agriculture and livestock The Planning Commission is interested to know; the total number of glaciers, volume, boundaries, snow accumulation and melting and overall growth trend, both temporally and spatially and the influence of all variables under different scenarios; the relationship of monsoon rainfall in glaciated area, snow fall, glaciers melt and river flow at selected gauge stations; the number of organizations involved, experts, equipments, funds, objectives and achievements made so far; and model based scenarios, analysis and action plan to utilize the glaciers-melt water on sustainable basis for crop and livestock production and other uses 3

14 2.1.2 Conclusion The Planning Commission looks forward to know the on-going efforts in quantifiable terms and facilitate research-based glacier water budgeting mechanism and integrated action plans to sustain and improve water resources and food security in Pakistan. Planning Commission (MTDF) Assessment & monitoring of climate change impacts on water resources Development of Mathematical modeling Action plan for glaciers monitoring Action plan to evaluate economic impacts of climate change 3 4

15 Climate Change, Glaciers & Agriculture Possible scenarios for change in climate Variations in Water Bank Budget (The balance between snow income & melting expenditure) Corresponding variations in water supply and net irrigation water demand Impact on Agricultural & Livestock production 4 Research Agenda Snow & ice cover on sq. km between 3000 & 6000 m elevation The boundaries and altitudes of internal glaciers Total number, area and volume of glaciers Climate & snowfall data in glaciated area Glaciers trend (increasing or receding) Relationship of rainfall, snow/glaciers & altitude Monitoring stations, equipments, experts 5 5

16 Research Agenda (cont..) Melting rate of glaciers (spatially and temporally) Annual snow/glaciers contribution to streams/rivers Annual rainfall in the Upper Indus glaciers Timing and quantity of Runoff in streams, rivers, lakes, aquifers at various stations Overall impacts on Indus rivers system Possible scenarios for climate change 6 Research Agenda Water availability scenarios (time & space) Changes in temp and Precipitation patterns Net Irrigation water requirements in Agroclimatic zones Impacts on crop growing period Impacts on Evapotranspiration The yield response scenarios of crops Impacts on wet and arid areas 7 6

17 2.2 Presentation by Pakistan Meteorological Department This section outlines the presentation on Melting Glaciers in Changing Climate by Dr. Qamar-uz-Zaman (Director General PMD), delivered by Dr. Ghulam Rasul (Chief Meteorologist PMD). The main points and conclusion are given below Main points Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation: 14 Met. stations in Northern Pakistan Kabul river melt flow (during 15th to 30th June) has been increased from 30,000 cusecs in 2001 to 160,000 cusecs in 2005 Indus river melt flow (during 15th to 30th June) has been increased from 150,000 cusecs in 2001 to 375,000 cusecs in 2005 Total Himalaya glaciers are 5024 in 10 river basins of Pakistan There are 2419 glacial lakes, with 25 potentially dangerous for GLOF Gangotri glacier is retreating 3 times more at the end 20th century than the previous average Liligo glacier is surged 2114 meters in last 24 years Sichen glacier retreated about 1.8 km in last 17 years The snow cover in Pakistan increases from Jan to March, decrease from March to September and again increase from September to March ( ) Average snow cover in 2007 is 60,000 sq. km Conclusion Most of the glaciers in Northern Pakistan are retreating which has been causing increased flood in Indus and Kabul during the month of June ( ). 7

18 WATER DISCHARGE (in (in Cusecs) SNOW MELT FLOOD IN KABUL RIVER DURING 15 TH TH 30 TH TH JUNE FlOOD IN IN KABUL RIVER DURING 15TH JUNE TO 30TH JUNE DATES Kabul-2001 Kabul-2002 Kabul-2003 Kabul-2004 Kabul-2005 SNOW MELT FLOOD IN INDUS RIVER (AT TARBELA) DURING 15 TH TH 30 TH TH JUNE 2005 WATER DISCHARGE (in (in Cusecs) FlOOD IN IN INDUS RIVER (AT TARBELA) DURING 15TH JUNE TO TO 30TH JUNE DATES Indus-2001 Indus-2002 Indus-2003 Indus-2004 Indus

19 Pakistan Snow cover in Area x000 Km JAN-07 Snow Cover of Norther Areas of Pakistan FEB-07 MAR-07 APR-07 Area x000 Km2 MAY-07 JUN-07 JUL-07 AUG-07 Months SEP-07 OCT-07 NOV-07 DEC-07 JAN-08 FEB-08 MAR-08 9

20 2.3 Presentation by SUPARCO Mr. Imran Iqbal (Director SPARCENT) from Pakistan Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) delivered presentation on Glaciers Depletion in Tibetan Plateau: Climate Change Perspective. The main points of the presentation and conclusion are given in the sections below Main points Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation: Tibetan Plateau (TP) is comprised of Himalaya, Karakuram, Mount Everest and K2 Tibetan Plateau has glacier area of 104, 850 sq.km Pakistan s share in TP glaciers area is sq.km TP glaciers contribute million cubic feet (0.007 MAF) 1 of annual water to Yangtze, Yellow, Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra and Irrawaddy rivers in Asia Glaciers in our region are retreating faster than any other in the world and may disappear during the next century SUPARCO studied Batura, Biofo, Yazghil and Jutmau glaciers Batura glacier is 7500 m.a.s.l, feeding Hunza River, which flows from west to East and fall into Indus. Snow / ice and ice free areas were observed as 98 and 25 sq.km in 1992 while in 2000 it accounted for 81 and 42 sq.km respectively Biofo glacier lies in Karakuram range in Baltistan. It feeds Barldu river which falls in to Shigar River and ultimately in to the Indus river. Snow/ ice and ice free areas were observed as and sq.km in 1992 while in 2000 it accounted for and sq.km respectively. Yazghil glacier lies in Hipar Muztagh Karakuram range at 7324 m.a.s.l. Temporal analysis indicate 1.18 sq.km decrease in area during 1992 and 2007 Jutmau glacier lies in north of Hispar glacier in Karakuram range. It lost 6 sq.km area during the period Snow covered area in Northern Pakistan on 10th May 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 was observed as 57066, 68420, and sq.km respectively. 1 The figure seems to be too small. It may be MAF rather than MCF (comments by SRA) 10

21 2.3.2 Conclusion The study conduced by SUPARCO on four glaciers (mentioned above) indicates a 9-17 % reduction in snow/ice area during the period Also the snow cover in the Northern areas decreased 49 % during the period (May). Global Temperature Rise 9 11

22 Aerial View of Part of Glacier Region of Pakistan on 15 May Image of 20 November 2001 Shows Bhutan Glaciers turned into Glacial Lakes Courtesy: American Geophysical Union

23 Snow cover Com parison For 10th May 2004, 2005, 2006 & Square Km Years Recommendations Tracking and comparing recent and historical changes in the glaciers should be carried out for: Assessment of short / long-term trends in glacier activity to assess water supplies or causes of glacial hazards Taking appropriate measures to control the emissions of GHG gasses to minimize the effect of global warming Prevention of deforestation and increase plantations for CO2 sink Taking measures to recycle domestic and industrial waste water Enforcement of water conservation plan

24 2.4 Presentation by Asianics Agro Dev- Pakistan Dr. Pervaiz Amir (Economist Asianics) delivered his presentation on Glaciers Melt and Agriculture: Are We Running against Time? Need for a Science-based Response. The sections below highlight main points of the presentation and conclusion Main points Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation: Rise in mean temperature of C O in arid coastal, arid mountains and hyper arid plains. 30 to 40 % decline is projected in precipitation with rising intensity in monsoon % increase in solar radiation over southern half of the country 5 % increase in Net Irrigation Water Requirements The time frame for glaciers melt is 45 years 40 to 50 % less water was available this year 62 % (74) districts are food deficit in terms of net availability The fate of glaciers can not be altered too much instead develop rain harvesting, sea water utilization, ground water management, water conservation. Israel, Egypt and Australia do not have glaciers but trendsetter in water management Invest in glacier monitoring in collaboration with international research agencies Science based response be given top priority, establish institution at Federal and provincial levels. Strengthen capacity in water resource modeling Establishment of National Agriculture Commission Conclusion The projected decline of 40 % in precipitation and 5 % increase in net irrigation water requirements will make Pakistan extremely food insecure, especially if glaciers reserves diminish in next 45 years. To offset future existing and future shortages, water resources shall be managed properly through modern irrigation techniques based on scientific research and institutional collaboration at federal, provincial and international levels. 14

25 Distribution of W ater in Main Rivers of Pakistan % Seasonal % of of IRS Distribution Dominant Source in in Inflows Summer Winter Summer (Apr- Sep)(Oct- Mar) Indus Snow/Glacial melt Chenab Snow/Glacial melt + Monsoon Jhelum Mainly Snow melt + Monsoon Kabul Snow/Glacial melt Others 5 Dominant Source in in Winter Winter Rainfall + Baseflow Winter Rainfall + Baseflow Winter Rainfall + Baseflow Winter Rainfall + Baseflow 3 Source: internet C 15

26 Feeding under c lim a te change and high fue l and input costs Agriculture at C ross roa ds P olic y O ptions Inves t in glacier monitoring and allocate funds and seek inte rna tiona l l collaboration such res ea rch is is costly th in k out sourcing as a ta c tic with P akistani collaboration Plan adaptation measures for overall climate change at grass root le ve l l in key hotspots with science based response disaster planning be given to p priority, es ta blis h a ins titution at F ederal and provincial le ve ls ls. Strengthen capacity in water res ourc e modeling at several ins titutions and also develop capacity for inte rpre ta tion and understanding at policy making le ve ll Re Frame agriculture th ro u g h an E mergency National Agriculture Commission Many climate change im pa c ts will have reg ional im plic a tions strengthen th e res ea rc h, policy and disaster res pons e link a g e s Without creating C haos! C reate mass awareness in a planned and effective manner 16

27 2.5 Presentation by GCISC (1) Dr. Arshad Mohammad Khan, Executive Director of Global Changes Impact Study Center (GCISC), delivered presentation on Global Climate Change and its Implications for Pakistan. This section highlights the main points and conclusion of the presentation Main points Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation: 0.6 C O increase in average global temperature during the last century; (2005 warmest year followed by 2007, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006 etc.). Increase by C O projected for the 21st Century Pakistan will face increased variability of Monsoon, more rapid recession of HKH Glaciers threatening IRS Flows, reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to frequent floods as a result of fast snow melting followed by increased risks of droughts Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions Food insecurity due to reduced agriculture productivity Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta; and risk to mangroves, coral reefs and breeding grounds of fish Temperature increases in both summer and winter are higher in Northern Pakistan than in Southern Pakistan Temperature increases in Northern and Southern Pakistan are higher in winter than in summer Conclusion The models, both global and regional, used for simulating future scenarios indicate various degrees of rise in temperature and percentage change in precipitation at the end of this century. Such projections will cause increase glaciers melting, floods during monsoon followed by drought conditions in arid and semi-arid parts of the country. 17

28 Warmest years: 2005, 2007, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2004, 2001, 1997, 1995, 2000, 1999 Rate of of Change (( o o C per decade) Average Global Temperature O C GCISC Activities at a Glance Capacity Building/ Research Analysis of Enhancement and Dissemination Historical Data Regional Climate Climate Change Climate Data Scenario Models Development Water Simulation Models Assessment of of Climate Change Impact on on Water Resources Water Resources Data Crop Simulation Models Assessment of of Climate Change Impact on on Agriculture Agricultural Data Identification of of adaptation measures in in agriculture sector Identification of of adaptation measures in in water sector Dissemination of of Project Outcomes 12 18

29 Projected Changes in Average Temperature of Northern and Southern Pakistan For A2 A2 Scenario, based on on Ensemble of of GCMs (Global?T?T = 4.0 C C in in 2100) For A1B Scenario, based on on Ensemble of of GCMs (Global?T?T = 2.8 C C in in 2100) 21 Projected Changes in Average Precipitation of Northern and Southern Pakistan Series1 Northern Pakistan Series1 Northern Pakistan Series2 Southern Pakistan Series2 Southern Pakistan Precipitation Precipitation chnage chnage (% ( % (Corresponding to to IPCC A2 A2 Scenario) Based on on Ensemble of of GCMs s 2020s 2050s 2080s 1990s 2020s 2050s 2080s Periods Periods (Corresponding to to IPCC A1B Scenario) Based on on Ensemble of of GCMs 23 19

30 2.6 Presentation by GCISC (2) Mr. Ghazanfer Ali, Head Water Resource Section GCISC, delivered presentation on Glaciers Response to Climate Change and its Implications on Indus River Flows. The main points and conclusion are given below Main points Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation: 82 % flow in the Indus River occurs during Kharif season (April-September) Snow & glacier melt contributes more than 80% to IRS Flows Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede (IPCC AR4 2007) Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of Indus River lows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in reduction in river flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years (World Bank 2006) Widespread evidence of glacier expansion in the late 1990s in the Central Karakuram in contrast to a worldwide decline of mountain glaciers (Hewitt 2005) Annual Discharge of Indus River at Tarbela ( ) decreased about 2.2 MAF Two projects, i.e., Pak-US S&T Cooperative Project and APN Project are in progress under GCISC Conclusion Although, the projections indicate glaciers retreat in next 5 years, the Indus River flow trend ( ) indicates reduction in flow. However, the Indus River dependence on glaciers melt necessitates scientific estimation of climate change impacts on seasonal and annual flows. 20

31 Ongoing Research in GCISC Water Section Implementation & Testing of Different Watershed Models for Application to IRS Use of Selected Watershed Models for Assessment of Climate Change (CC) Impacts on IRS and its Components Monitoring of Temporal Changes in Dimension of Karakoram Glaciers Using GIS & Remote Sensing for Assessing Impacts of CC on Water Resources of Pakistan 7 On going Research Projects on Glacier Monitoring Pak-US S&T Cooperative Project: Capacity Building and Collaborative Research for Assessing Impact of Climate Change on Glaciers of the Karakoram Himalaya (Karakoram-Ice Project): Collaborating Institutions: GCISC (Pakistan) GLIMS (Global Land and Ice Measurement from Space) Project, Nebraska University & NASA (USA) APN Project: Impacts of Global Change on the Dynamics of Snow, Glaciers and Runoff over the Himalayan Mountains and their Consequences for Highland and Downstream Regions: Principal Investigator: Dr. Kedar Lal Shrestha (Nepal) Collaborating Countries: China, India, Nepal, Pakistan (GCISC) 21 21

32 Trend in Annual inflows of Indus at Kalabagh 140 Indus at Kalabagh Annual Inflows ( ) y = x t : (0.677) (32.5) 120 Annual Inflows (MAF) Years Data Source: Indus River System Authority (IRSA) Change in Flows per decade : (0.44 ± 0.65)% (0.395 ± 0.584) MAF Trend in Annual inflows of Kabul at Nowshera Kabul at Nowshera Annual Inflows ( ) y = x t : (-1.96) (15.5) 40 Annual Inflows (MA Years C h an g e in F lo w s p e r d e cad e : (-5.50 ± 2.8 0)% ( ± 0.6 0) M AF Data Source: Indus River System Authority (IRSA)

33 2.7 Presentation by WAPDA Mr. Danyal Hashmi (Senior Engineer WAPDA) delivered presentation on Glaciers and Water Resources. Main points and conclusion are given below Main Points Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation: Total 5000 glaciers in Indus River catchment Total ice reserve volume is 850 km 3 (688 MAF) Active melting zone is between 3500 and 4800 m.a.s.l Snow and Glacier melt provides 70% water from UIB Eleven Important glaciers in the UIB Pakistan Snow & Ice Hydrology Project Phase-I ( ) mainly focused on Glaciers Accumulation, Movement, Ablation, Mass Balance and Snow-melt Runoff Pakistan Snow & Ice Hydrology Project Phase-II ( ) focused on collection of hydro-meteorological data within an elevation range of m.a.s.l in the mountain ranges of the HKH through 20 Automated Data Collection Platforms (DCPs), installed in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) The Meteor Burst Communication System (MBCS) was acquired and being used for transmission of near real-time data from UIB DCPs to Forecasting Centre Lahore. A Seasonal and 10-Daily flow forecasting system for River Indus at Tarbela, River Jhelum at Mangla and River Kabul at Nowshera was developed and forecasts are being issued regularly since 2004 The main forecast recipients of this data include IRSA, PMD, Tarbela, Mangla and Chasma Barrage Projects and WAPDA water wing Another study on Climate Change (1991), financed by US Environment Protection Agency, carried out to assess social and environmental impacts of CO 2 -induced climate change in the Indus River basin of Pakistan The Climate Change cannot be estimated in UIB region as the meteorological stations network measuring these parameters is sparse and located in valley bottom, and therefore influenced by local thermal effects. 23

34 Rising trend in summer flows of Indus (main) at Kachura in the Eastern Karakoram Rising trend in River Chitral at Chitral in the Hindukush Region Falling Trend in the summer flows of River Hunza at Dainyour and River Gilgit at Alam Bridge in the Western Karakoram Conclusion The summer flows in Indus and Chitral rivers presents a rising trend which indicate rising glacier melting rate in the Eastern Karakuram and Hindukush regions, while the Hunza and Gilgit rivers originating from Western Karakoram show a decline trend in summer flows. Facts about UIB Glaciers There are more than 5000 glaciers in River Indus catchment Total Ice Reserve Estimate 850 Km 3 (Qin,, 2000) Karakoram Glaciers within Pakistan covers an area about Km 2 (Mercer, 1975) The largest 23 glaciers account for about 60% of the glacier area. (Hewitt, 1985) The glaciers are born within an elevation zone of meters above sea level. 24

35 IMPORTANT GLACIERS OF UIB Name Surface Area (Km 2 ) Length (Km) Siachen Baltoro Biafo Batura Hispar Chogo Lungama Rimo Panmah Khurdopin Barpu Rakhiot

36 SWE confirmation at SHOGRAN Recommendations There is a need for establishing an institution where a research can be carried out in a scientific manner to investigate in to the water resources of the country especially lying in the cold regions of Pakistan Work of WAPDA in Snow and Ice Hydrology should be expanded Centre of Excellence for Cold Regions can be established within WAPDA. 26

37 2.8 Presentation by PAEC Dr. Manzoor Ahmad Choudhry (Head Isotope Application Division PINSTECH) delivered his presentation on Application of Isotope Techniques in Hydrology and Environmental Change Studies. The main points and conclusion are given in sections below Main Points Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation: Isotope are atoms of same atomic number but different atomic mass Isotopes can be used as tracer of finger prints of source, movement, recharge & discharge rates, age, quality and transmissivity of aquifers and surface water Direct use of water isotopes to infer recent global change and groundwater dating Historical sea temperatures can be determined to an accuracy of about 0.4 C Measures of Paleo-climate Oxygen Isotopes and Ice Cores This technique facilitate quick monitoring of water bodies IAEA/WMO survey of hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in precipitation since 1961 with 508 stations, over 250,000 meteorological and isotope data sets Conclusion Isotopes hydrology techniques can be very helpful to investigate effect of climate change on glacier melt by using ice fingerprints. The technique can also be used to determine source, age, movements, quality and dating of water resources by using water fingerprints. 27

38 APPLICATIONS OF ISOTOPE TECHNIQUES Recharge mechanism of groundwater (sources, area, recharge rate, altitude etc.) Groundwater Dating Groundwater pollution and salinization Surface water/groundwater relationship and interconnection between aquifers: Investigation of geothermal resources Aquifer Parameters (velocity, hydraulic cond., transmissivity,, porosity etc.) Estimation of seepage losses from irrigation channels Agriculture Climate change studies 28

39 Stable Isotope Techniques for Determining Past Climates to help determine ancient temperatures and volumes of the icecaps ancient sea temperatures can be determined to an accuracy of about 0.4 C ( 18 O of Seashells) as shells are precipitated, the 18O will be enriched in CaCO3 relative to water the higher the temperature, the less the enrichment Conclusions Isotopes can help investigate effect of climate change (glacier melt) on water resources and agriculture Better results can be obtained integrating with conventional techniques 29

40 2.9 Presentation by NARC Dr. Rakhshan Roohi (Principal Research Officer NARC) made a presentation on Glaciers Behavior under Climate Change. The main points and conclusion are given in sections below Main Points Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation: Inventory for glaciers river basins, glacial lakes has been designed The ice reserves for ten river basins is estimated as 2738 km 3 (2218 MAF) tapped in 5218 number of glaciers spread over glaciated area of sq.km There are 52 (out of 2420) potentially dangerous glacial lakes in Pakistan An average of 60 % reduction in the glaciated area of five selected glaciers is estimated during the period at the rate of 5.2 hectare per year However, the glacial lake area increased 64 % on an average during for the same five selected glaciers Himalaya glaciated area is receding Karakuram glaciers are increasing Institutional collaboration and centralized data ware house is needed Conclusion The NARC has also developed glaciers inventory which will be the most valuable asset for researchers and planners to understand, estimate and manage glaciers resources of Pakistan. The main finding of the presentation was the overall retreating of glaciers in Pakistan, except an increase in Karakuram glaciated area. 30

41 Basins Basin Area (Km 2 ) Glaciated area (Km 2 ) No. of Glaciers Total Length (Km) Ice Reserves (Km 3 ) Swat Chitral Gilgit Hunza Shigar Shyok Indus Shingo Astor Jhelum Total June 4th, 2008 Roohi % Summary of glacier inventory 83.35% 1.69% 2.04% Location of Selected Glaciers and Lakes Astor River basin Lake_5 Gr_5 Lake_4 Lake_3 Gr_4 Lake_2 Lake_1 Gr_3 Jhelum River basin (Kunhar) Gr_2 Gr_1 Folvi glacier June 4th, 2008 Roohi SPOT XS image (1 st st Sep. 2005) 31

42 Trend Analysis of Glacier Ice Reserves Reserves (cub. km) Ice Ice reserves Year Trend line June 4th, 2008 Roohi Way Forward Institutional Collaborations Data availability and accessibility Centralized data where house Data Standards High resolution SRS and DEM data Availability of updated high resolution digital topo sheets International Collaborations. Long Term Commitment June 4th, 2008 Roohi

43 2.10 Presentation by NIO Dr. M. M. Rabbani, Director General National Institute of Oceanography (NIO) made his on Sea Level Rise and its Impacts on Coastal Area. The main points and conclusion are given in sections below Main Points Following are the main points highlighted in the presentation: The creation of Himalayas about 45 to 50 million years ago provided the foundation for the Indus River System and Monsoon rains the life giving source of water for sub-continent The natural Hazards in the Indian ocean rim countries, including floods, cyclones, storm surges, sea level rise, earthquakes, windstorms, and Tsunamis are mainly caused by climatic and seismic factors Over the past 1,000 years and prior to the 20th century, the average global sea level rise was of the order of 0.2 mm/yr. The rate of sea level rise climbed to about 1-2 mm/yr during the 20th century This significant rate of rise in sea level is attributed to global warming IPCC predicted sea level rise (with current emission rate of greenhouse gases) 8-20 cm by 2030, cm by 2070 and cm by The major impacts of sea level rise include inundation of wetlands and lowlands, sea water intrusion and flooding of coastal population centers Conclusion Sea level rose faster in the last decade than the 20th century average. The rate and extent of current sea level rise can only be resolved with research-based studies and longer satellite time series techniques. 33

44 mm/year mm/year ΔMSL (mm) mm/year Average Rate ~ 1.8 mm/year Year [Church [Church and and White, White, 2006] 2006] 34

45 Marine Drive, Clifton Karachi Observations of sea level change are consistent with how we expect sea level to respond in a warming climate. Sea level rose faster in the last decade than the 20th century average. Whether the current rate of rise is accelerating can only be resolved with longer satellite time series. Presently, ocean warming, melting of mountain glaciers, and melting of the polar ice caps are contributing in roughly equal amounts to the observed rise. The largest uncertainty in future sea level rise projections is the contribution of Greenland and Antarctica. Many of the remaining questions about sea level rise can only be answered with continued satellite measurements, which are in serious jeopardy. 35

46 3 DISCUSSION The synopsis of discussion and the way forward decided during the seminar is given in sections to follow. 3.1 Synopsis The major aspects highlighted during the discussion included climate change patterns as a result of modeling different combinations of variables, boundaries, dimensions & water budget of glaciers, Indus river flow trends, impacts on agriculture, water laws, need for increasing storage reservoirs, capacity building of research institutions, the use of isotope hydrology, mass awareness campaign, demand management, hydro-terrorism and climate change impacts on microbiology, sea level, environment and economy The scale of glacier volume, melting and growth could not be ascertained due to lack of reasonable assessment and conflicting claims by different studies on Karakuram and Himalaya. However, the climate change impacts appearing in the form of change in temperature, glacial lakes formation, flooding and droughts have been recognized. Almost all the participants unanimously agreed that lack of data accessibility, networking and coordination among the relevant organizations are the major constraints to have an integrated approach on the subject. Although 13 national and 9 international organizations are currently involved in research and related activities on the subject, there exists no significant linkage among them to accomplish this common mission. The participants were informed that the initiative has already been taken by the Planning Commission on assessment of data and networking system among water related institutions which could be further strengthened by active contribution from the stakeholders. The participants were informed that there are international organizations including universities working on glaciers in Nepal, China and elsewhere, which can be taken on board to start a comprehensive study of glaciers in Pakistan. WAPDA may act as a focal organization in this regard. 36

47 Water laws need to be reviewed in order to bring them in conformity with the current water scarcity and quality issues and enlarge their capacity to accommodate future scenarios under climate change. The participants suggested that the Planning Commission may act as a focal organization to facilitate structural arrangements for a unified strategy on climate change impacts on glaciers, water resources and agriculture. The need for a common data bank was highlighted by the participants. 3.2 The way forward The following decisions were made at the end of the seminar: I. The Planning Commission will convene a meeting of key stakeholders to devise mechanism for a nationally integrated structure on the subject. II. The establishment of a common data bank will be entrusted to a single key organization, which will take input from all the stakeholders and will be accessible to all of them including civil society III. SUPARCO, WAPDA, Pakistan Meteorological Department, IUCN, ICIMOD and FAO have voluntarily offered their services for providing researchers and other facilities to strengthen institutional collaboration IV. A small committee of legal experts and water professionals will be formed to review the existing water laws in the context of current water related issues V. WAPDA was requested to strengthen its activities on ice hydrology and coordinate with Application of Isotope Hydrology wing of Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission for using ice finger prints in the assessment of glaciers age, movement and volume VI. The Planning Commission will publish a report on the proceedings of the seminar which would be the first integrated approach towards the subject of climate change implications for glaciers in Pakistan 37

48 4 CONCLUSIONS Although, the exact volume of ice/snow and budget (the difference between ice accumulation and melting) of glaciers could not be ascertained due to contradictory results presented during the seminar, the melting of glaciers in the Eastern Karakuram and Hindukush regions have been indicating a rising trend. Similarly the Indus River flow trend in summer shows a rising trend as well. Such results indicate clearly the impact of rising temperature in the glaciated area of Pakistan. However, the sparse network of data collection, lack of coordination and data sharing among the associated organizations were found to be the major constraints in the reasonable assessment of glaciers behavior and subsequent impacts on river flows and agriculture. The seminar seems to be the beginning of a large scale coordinated efforts to understand, estimate, plan and manage glaciers water budget, climate change variable, river flows and impacts on agriculture. The long process may include proper estimation of ice/snow/glaciers, rainfall in the lower parts of glaciated area, monsoon rainfall in the Upper Indus Basin, the trend of climate variables like radiations, temperature, precipitation and wind in the glaciated area and finally measurement of stream and river flows at the end of glaciated area. After accurate field data is made available, the in-depth analysis of whole cycle of climate variables, glaciers budget and river flows will result in the identification of the existing trend of the whole cycle. Future projections with most probable combinations of the variables (scenarios) will be simulated. Such projections will be analyzed in the context of the net irrigation water demand for agriculture and other uses of glacier melt water. This kind of comparisons will provide solid base for policy formulation and strategic action plans to devise annual water budget for agriculture and other uses to ensure effective and efficient use of the available fresh water. Similarly mitigation and adaptation (management) strategies could also be formulated for sustainable irrigated agriculture. Management of water resources will be strengthened from supply as well as demand sides. The ultimate aim of glaciers water assessment and management will be food security in Pakistan by ensuring optimum quantity of water availability for agriculture. 38

49 Annexure 1: List of presentations S.No Name of Presenter Organization Name of presentation 1 Mr. Naseer A. Gillani Planning Commission Glaciers Behavior under Climate Change and its Impacts on Agriculture in Pakistan 2 Mr. Ghulam Rasul PMD Melting Glaciers in Changing Climate 3 Mr. Imran Iqbal SUPARCO Glaciers Depletion in Tibetan Plateau Climate Change Perspective 4 Mr. Pervaiz Amir Asianics, Agro. Dev-Pakistan Glaciers Melt and Agriculture: Are We Running Against Time? Need for a Science-based Response 5 Dr. Arshad Mohammad Khan GCISC Global Climate Change and its Implications for Pakistan 6 Mr. Ghazanfar Ali GCISC Glaciers Response to Climate Change and its Implications on Indus River Flows 7 Mr. Danyal Hashmi WAPDA Glaciers and Water Resources 8 Dr. Manzoor Ahmad PAEC Application of Isotope Techniques in Hydrology and Environmental Change Studies 9 Dr. Rakhshan Rohi NARC Glaciers Behavior under Climate Change 10 Dr. M. M. Rabbani NIO, Karachi Sea Level Rise and its impacts on coastal area 39

50 Planning Commission Annexure 2: List of participants 1. Dr. Kauser A. Malik Member (Food & Agriculture Section) 2. Dr. Shaukat Hameed Khan Member (Science & Technology Section) 3. Dr. Muhammad Jameel Khan Advisor (Agriculture Planning) 4. Mr. Naseer A. Gillani Chief (water Resources Section) 5. Dr. Yahya Ashraf Chief (F&A Section) 6. Dr. Aurangzeb Khan Chief (Environment Section) 7. Mr. Hamid Marwat Chief (Forestry & Wildlife Section) 8. Dr. Aamir Irshad Deputy Chief (F&A) 9. Mr. Saleem Iqbal Assistant Chief (F&A) 10. Mr. Asif Khan Assistant Chief (F&A) 11. Ms. Zaigham Habib IWRM Specialist 12. Mr. Mohammad Hasim Leghari Horticulture Specialist 13. Mr. Bashir Khethran Senior Research Associate (NRM) 14. Mr. Mohammad Nawaz Khan Senior Research Associate (WM/I) 40

51 15. Dr. Sajjad Rabbani Livestock Specialist 16. Mr. Faisal Saeed Bio Technology Specialist 17. Mr. Faisal Jamil Research Associate 18. Mr. Faisal Anwar Malik Research Associate 19. Ms. Ambreen Sultan Research Associate 20. Mr. Shafiq-Ur-Rehman Research Associate 21. Mr. Ali Amir Raza Bukhari Research Associate Min. of Water & Power 22. Mr. Zahir Shah Mohmand, Joint Secretary (water), Ministry of Water & Power, Islamabad 23. Dr. M. Saddique, General Manager, Planning & Development, WAPDA House Lahore 24. Mr. Danish Hashmi Senior Engineer WAPDA Lahore Min. of Food, Agriculture & livestock 25. Mr. Abdul Karim Chaudry, Director General, FWMC, MinFAL, Islamabad 26. Mr. Abdul Rauf Chaudhry Chief Agri. Policy MinFAL, Islamabad 41

52 27. Dr. M. Aslam CMC, MinFAL, Islamabad 28. Dr. Rakhshan Rohi Principal Scientific Officer, NARC, Islamabad 29. Dr. M. Salim Chief Scientist, PARC Islamabad Min. of Environment 30. Mr. Sadullah Ayaz Head, CDM, Min. of Environment Islamabad 31. Ms. Helga Ahmad Environmentalist Islamabad Min. of Defence 32. Dr. Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry, Director General, Pak. Met Department, Islamabad 33. Dr. Ghulam Rasul Chief Meteorologist, PMD Islamabad 34. Mr. Syed Zuhair Bukhari GM, SUPARCO Islamabad 35. Mr. Rahmatullah Jilani General Manager SUPARCO Karachi 36. Mr. Imran Iqbal, Director SPARCENT, SUPARCO Islamabad 37. Mr. Ijaz Ahmad SUPARCO, Islamabad 42

53 Min. of Science & Technology 38. Dr. M. M. Rabbani Director General, NIO Karachi 39. Dr. M. Ashraf Chief Research (WM), PCRWR Islamabad Autonomous/Semi autonomous Organizations 40. Dr. Arshad Mohammad Khan Executive Director, GCISC, Islamabad 41. Mr. Ghazanfar Ali Head Water Resources Section, GCISC, Islamabad 42. Ms. Humera Sultan Senior Scientific Officer GCISC, Islamabad 43. Dr. Itrat Zehra Director, Center of Excellence in Marine Biology, University of Karachi, Karachi 44. Dr. Manzoor Ahmad Dy. Chief Engineer PAEC, Islamabad 45. Dr. Niaz Ahmad Principal Scientist, PAEC (PINSTECH) Islamabad Private Sector 46. Dr. Pervaiz Amir, Senior Economist, Asianics Agro. Dev-Pak Islamabad 47. Dr. Syed Mansoor Ali Shah Advocate Supreme Court, Lahore 43

54 International Organizations 48. Mr. Mahmood Akhtar Cheema Head IUCN/AJK Islamabad 49. Mr. Shehzad Ahmad Program Officer, IUCN Islamabad 50. Ms. Ambar Masud Project Support Officer, UNDP Islamabad 51. Dr. Ijaz Ahamad Dy. Director General, WWF Islamabad 52. Mr. Mahmood Ahmad Senior UN Advisor FAO, Islamabad 53. Mr. Abdul Hakim Khan Director IWMI Pakistan Lahore 54. Mr. Ali Tauqir Shaikh Chief Executive, LEAD, Islamabad 55. Ms. Hina Latia General Manager LEAD, Islamabad 56. Ms. Ayesha Shaukat Coordinator Program Development LEAD, Islamabad 57. Syed Arslan Coordinator Special Project LEAD, Islamabad 58. Ms. Dina Khan Assistant Coordinator LEAD, Islamabad 44

55 59. Ms. Sabeen Mahmood Assistant Coordinator LEAD, Islamabad 60. Dr. Chaudry Inayatullah Regional coordinator ICIMOD, Islamabad 61. Mr. Takao Kaibara Representative, JICA Islamabad 62. Mr. Sardar Muhammad Tariq Chairman Pakistan Water Partnership Islamabad 63. Mr. Karamat Ali Program Coordinator, Pakistan Water Partnership Islamabad 64. Sarfaraz M. Research Officer, CGIAR Lahore 45

56 Annexure 3: Map of the Indus Basin Irrigation System 46

57 Annexure 4: Compact Disc of all presentations 47

58 48