Economic Outlook U.S., Southeast Florida. ULI Southeast Florida/Caribbean January 25, 2007

Transcription

1 Economic Outlook U.S., Southeast Florida ULI Southeast Florida/Caribbean January 25, 2007 Stan Geberer, Associate Fishkind & Associates, Inc Corporate Boulevard Orlando, Florida 32817

2 U.S. Forecast Summary nd Half of 2006 low point of cycle Employment growth driving consumption higher, but it s slowing Housing slowdown and high energy prices sap consumer spending in 2 nd half 2007 Soft Landing/below trend growth Housing bubble deflates Lower interest rates and weak dollar prop up the economy 2008 recovery and strong growth 2009 Lower interest rates stimulate growth Main forecast risk energy price spike 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 2

3 Florida s s Residential Housing Markets Reaching the bottom of the cycle Shape of recovery varies significantly by market and by product Orlando strongest and Ft. Myers and Miami are the weakest Single-family market stabilizing, but condo market is in serious trouble in many areas Land market particularly risky Property taxes obstacles no consensus this session Insurance Reform 5%-25% overall rate reduction Doubles reinsurance to $32b, improves availability Expand Citizens policy offerings Allows direct competition with other companies 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 3

4 Economic Impact of Disasters in $2005 Billions Disaster Area Loss Aid Aid/Loss Ivan Gulf $13.8 $ % 9/11 NY/DC $86.0 $ % LA Quake LA $33.0 $ % Midwest Floods MN-MO $15.0 $8.0 53% Andrew Miami $48.0 $ % Hugo Charleston $19.0 $ % Katrina Gulf $120.0 $ % 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 4

5 RECENT TRENDS IN GDP AND INFLATION Q1 02Q3 03Q1 03Q3 04Q1 04Q3 05Q1 05Q3 06Q1 06Q3 GDP INFLATION 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 5

6 GROWTH IN REAL GDP IN BILLIONS OF 2000$ q205 q305 q405 q106 q206 q306 Cons Inv Ch Inv. Net Ex Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 6

7 GROWTH IN PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT May-03 Aug-03 Nov-03 Feb-04 May-04 Aug-04 Nov-04 Feb-05 May-05 Aug-05 Nov-05 Feb-06 May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 7

8 Consumer Confidence Index University of Michigan 1966= Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 8

9 Value of the Dollar Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 9

10 U.S. HOUSING STARTS Annual Rate in Millions Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 10

11 Oil Prices Acquisition Cost for U.S. Refiners /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 11

12 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 12

13 Different Areas Affected Very Differently States in Black and Red will have Recessions 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 13

14 Consumer Price Index % Change Month-to to-month Fed Target Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Sep CPI Core 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 14

15 INTEREST RATES M1 2000M8 2001M3 2001M M5 2002M M7 2004M2 2004M9 2005M4 2005M M6 FYFF FYGT10 Mortgage 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 15

16 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 16

17 Dramatic Shift in Fiscal Policy Return of Structural Deficits Complete shift in fiscal policy From surplus of $250 B FY To deficit of $380 B FY Stimulus is $630B Deficits OK when economy weak but not OK when economy strengthens Deficits have become structural It s not just the tax cuts either 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 17

18 Annual Growth in Real Federal Spending By Administration 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% Carter Reagan Bush I Clinton Bush II 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 18

19 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 19

20 Structural Deficit Outlays and Revenue as a % GDP Outlays Revenues /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 20

21 Federal Budget Deficit CBO On Budget Deficit 1/ OMB Baseline OMB Most Likely 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 21

22 INTEREST RATES Q1 2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 FYFFQ FYGT10Q Mortgage 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 22

23 GDP AND INFLATION (Percent growth SAAR) q1 2002q3 2003q1 2003q3 2004q1 2004q3 2005q1 2005q3 2006q1 2006q3 2007q1 2007q3 2008q1 2008q3 GDP INFLATION 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 23

24 Projection for Materials Prices Building Material Fishkind Projected Increase through December Simonson Projected Increase through December Iron and Steel 4% to 5% Flat Lumber 3% to 4% Lower over sam Drywall 7% to 10% < 5% Concrete Products 7% to 10% 10% to 15% Roofing Materials 6% to 9% 0% over same m Unskilled Labor 3% to 4% 4% Skilled Labor 4% to 6% 4% 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 24

25 Lumber Prices Before and After Hurricane Charley Charley 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 25

26 Property Market Trends Residential properties Historically high sales of owner occupied housing of all types esp. single-family Strong demand for development land Rapid increases in prices Non residential properties suffered from substantial deterioration in NOI Rising vacancy rates Pressure on lease rates Cap rates fell faster than NOI Property valuations increased THIS PHASE IS OVER! 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 26

27 Property Market Trends Lower interest rates Escalating property insurance rates Higher property taxes Rising cap rates Improving NOI mitigated by taxes & insurance Little appreciation in non residential property values Residential values stabilize and stop appreciating but no bubble burst Overbuilding in condominiums Land loans greatest risk 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 27

28 Apartment Cap Rates FYGT10A Apartment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 28

29 Office Cap Rates Office FYGT10A 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 29

30 Industrial Cap Rate Industrial FYGT10A 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 30

31 Retail Cap Rate FYGT10A Retail /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 31

32 U.S. Markets with Highest Completions 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 32

33 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 33

34 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 34

35 Is There a Housing Bubble in Florida? (in 000s) YES! Permits Households Starts /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 35

36 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 36

37 Recent Study Claims Florida Housing Prices are Overvalued 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 37

38 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 38

39 New Single-Family Home Closings 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Volume Value $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 39

40 Existing Single-Family Homes 400,000 $115, ,000 $95, ,000 $75, ,000 $55, , , Volume Value $35,000 $15,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 40

41 New Condominiums (New/New and Conversions) 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Volume Value ,000 16,000 11,000 6,000 1,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 41

42 Existing Condominiums 110,000 $30,000 90,000 70,000 50,000 30, Volume Value $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 42

43 Number of Respondents By Gender Market Respondents %Male %Female Tampa % 65% Orlando % 44% West Palm Beach % 41% Fort Myers-Naples % 54% Broward % 48% Miami-Dade County % 46% Sarasota County % 59% Rest of Florida % 45% All of Florida % 50% 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 43

44 Good Time to Buy a Home? Do You Think That Now Is A Good Time Or A Bad Time To Buy A House? 60% Good Time Bad Time Not Sure 50% 40% 30% % 20% 10% Tampa Tampa Orlando Orlando West West Palm Palm Beach Beach Fort Fort Myers-Naples Myers-Naples Broward Broward Miami-Dade Miami-Dade County County Sarasota Sarasota County County Rest Rest of of Florida Florida All All of of Florida Florida 0% 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 44

45 Forecast for Home Values Over The Next 12 Months What Do You Expect The Value Of Homes In Your Community To Do? 80% Increase Remain the same Decrease 70% 60% 50% 40% % 30% 20% 10% Tampa Tampa Orlando Orlando West West Palm Palm Beach Beach 0% Fort Fort Myers-Naples Myers-Naples Broward Broward Miami-Dade Miami-Dade County County Sarasota Sarasota County County Rest Rest of of Florida Florida All All of of Florida Florida 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 45

46 Details on Price Projections Market Significantly Increase (5%+) Increase a little (1-4 %) Remain the same Decrease a little (1-4%) Significantly decrease (5%+) Tampa 24% 37% 19% 16% 4% Orlando 20% 36% 18% 20% 6% West Palm Beach 20% 38% 20% 19% 3% Fort Myers-Naples 15% 37% 21% 22% 5% Broward 12% 36% 21% 25% 6% Miami-Dade County 30% 34% 13% 16% 7% Sarasota County 10% 28% 23% 24% 15% Rest of Florida 33% 35% 18% 11% 3% All of Florida 22% 36% 19% 18% 5% 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 46

47 Obstacles to Home Ownership How Big Of An Obstacle Would You Say Each Of The Following Is When Purchasing A Hom e? % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Affordability Tampa Tampa Orlando Orlando West West Palm Palm Beach Beach Fort Fort Myers-Naples Myers-Naples Broward Broward Miami-Dade Miami-Dade County County Sarasota Sarasota County County Rest Rest of of Florida Florida All All of of Florida Florida Complexity of the real estate process (closing paperwork, etc.) The loan process Assembling a qualified real estate team (realtor, real estate attorney, appraiser, etc.) 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 47

48 Home Owners Biggest Concerns 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 48

49 IMPACT OF THE HURRICANES ON FLORIDA Areas not Directly Hit by Eye of Storm Positive economic impact from Insurance proceeds Reconstruction of infrastructure Short term effects for the most part Areas directly hit by Eye Major devastation and destruction Local economy disrupted Some out-migration to other areas Longer Term Impacts on Florida and Coastal Area Real Estate Major insurance cost increases impacting values! Local governments will have to budget for more cleanup Some marginal impact on demand 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 49

50 Georgia Growth Population and Employment Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 50

51 Alabama Growth Population and Employment Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 51

52 South Carolina Growth Population and Employment Employment Population 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 52

53 Tennessee Growth Population and Employment Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 53

54 Florida Growth Population and Employment Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 54

55 Employment Growth By MSA 000s of Jobs last 12 months Jax, 21,200 Orlando, 47,800 W.Palm, 21,100 Ft. Lauderdale, 34,200 Miami, 21,700 Tampa, 40,500 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 55

56 FLORIDA POPULATION GROWTH (000s) /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 56

57 FLORIDA HOUSING STARTS Single-Family 2000 Multifamily /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 57

58 Non Residential Construction Put in Place Millions of Square Feet Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 58

59 Growth in Air Passengers 0.00% -5.00% % Year-over over-year % July/August % % % Orlando Ft. Lauderdal Miami Las Vegas Seattle Dulles Dallas SF LAX 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 59 Chi

60 Forecast for Visitors to Florida Year Volume Change % Change % % % % (1.30) -1.3% (0.60) -0.6% % % 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 60

61 TOURIST ARRIVALS (in Millions) /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 61

62 Growth in Visitors (In Millions) (1.00) (2.00) /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 62

63 STRUCTURAL CHANGE & NEAR TERM PROSPECTS Orlando MSA Spectacular job creation power area Rebound in tourism/conventions Major capital programs continue Convention Center expansion Airport expansion Western beltway Wekiva link Defense spending stimulates area Rebound in non residential construction 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 63

64 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Sources of Orlando s Employment Growth 0 January March May Con Man Trade Fin Prof Ed/Hth Hos p Gov 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 64

65 Growth in Deplaning Airline Passengers Orlando 70.00% 50.00% 30.00% 10.00% % % % Jan-01 Mar-01 May-01 Jul-01 Sep-01 Nov-01 Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 65

66 OVERNIGHT VISITORS TO ORLANDO MSA /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 66

67 ORLANDO MSA GROWTH 76,000 66,000 56,000 46,000 36,000 26,000 16,000 6,000-4, Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 67

68 Orlando New Single-Family 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 1,400 1,200 Volume Value $300,000 $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 68

69 Orlando Existing Single-Family 5,700 5,200 4,700 4,200 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 3,700 3,200 Volume Value $300,000 $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 69

70 New Condominiums 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 0 Volume Value $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 70

71 Existing Condominiums 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 0 Volume Value $225,000 $175,000 $125,000 $75,000 $25,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 71

72 ORLANDO MSA HOUSING STARTS 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Single Family Multifamily 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 72

73 Commercial Construction Put In Place in Square Feet 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000, Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial W arehouse Inst Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 73

74 Major Driver s s of Orange County s Economy and Prospects Rebound in tourism/conventions Renaissance of downtown core Major capital programs Airport, Beltway are Orlando/Orange County projects Defense spending stimulates Rebound in non residential construction 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 74

75 Orange County Growth Population & Employment 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10, Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 75

76 Orange County Growth Households v. Starts 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Single Multi Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 76

77 Orange County New Homes $360,000 $310,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $260,000 $210,000 Value Sales 1,100 1, /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 77

78 Orange County Existing Homes $310,000 $290,000 $270,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $190,000 Value Sales 2,900 2,700 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 78

79 Orange County New Condo Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $245,000 $235,000 $225,000 $215,000 $205,000 $195,000 $185,000 $175,000 $165,000 $155,000 Value Sales 1, /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 79 0

80 Orange County Existing Condo Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 $100,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 80

81 Orange County Housing Starts 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 81

82 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 82

83 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 83

84 Orange County Non Residential Construction In Square Feet 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000, Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 84

85 QUESTIONS?

86 Major Drivers for Seminole County s s Economy Major suburban office nodes on I-4 Corridor Altamonte, Lake Mary, Heathrow High tech consulting and business services High end residential Strong regional shopping nodes Dwindling land area for development 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 86

87 Seminole County Growth Population & Employment 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 87

88 Seminole County Seminole County New Homes New Home Closings $360,000 $310,000 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 $260,000 $210,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 88

89 $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 Seminole County Seminole County Existing Homes Existing Home Closings Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Value Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Sales Feb-06 1,100 1, /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 89

90 Seminole County Housing Starts 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Single Family Multifamily 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 90

91 Seminole County Non Residential Construction 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 in Square Feet Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Inst Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 91

92 Osceola County Major Drivers Bedroom community for tourism/convention center node in Orange County Center of hispanic migration to area Heavy Puerto Rican inflows have changed demography and cyclical performance Hispanic retirement area booming Relatively lower price points for MSA Relatively under developed commercial support systems 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 92

93 Osceola County Growth Population & Employment 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 93

94 Osceola County Household Growth v. Starts 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Single-family Multifamily Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 94

95 Osceola County New Homes $330,000 $280,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 $230,000 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $180,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 95

96 Osceola County Existing Homes $320,000 $300,000 $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 Value Sales 1,200 1,100 1, /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 96

97 Osceola County New Condo $235,000 $185,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $135,000 $85,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 97

98 Osceola County Existing Condo $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 $160,000 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 Value Sales 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc

99 Osceola County Housing Starts 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 99

100 Osceola County Non Residential Construction 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 in Square Feet Re tail Local Re tail Re gional Hote l Office Ins t Govt Indus trial Warehouse 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 100

101 Lake County Growth Population & Employment 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, , Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 101

102 Lake County Lake County New Homes New Home Closings $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 $200,000 $150,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 102

103 $470,000 $420,000 $370,000 $320,000 $270,000 $220,000 $170,000 $120,000 Lake County Lake County Existing Homes Existing Home Closings Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Value Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Sales Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 103

104 Lake County Housing Starts 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Single Fam ily M ultifam ily 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 104

105 Orlando MSA Apartment Market Overview

106 Apartment Market High Occupancy and Limited Supply Mean Opportunity Exists Occupancy rates at all time high of 96.1% Strong job creation and household formations Conversion have reduced supply Rental rates rising Available units declined in face of strong demand units available dropped 3,000 over last 12-months Metrowest area benefits from location in tourism area where strongest job growth is occurring and were conversions are removing units Job quality improving with rise of business services jobs Construction volume is very low 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 106

107 Occupancy and Units Available for Rent Orlando MSA 155, , , , , ,000 95,000 85,000 75,000 Sep-90 Sep-91 Sep-92 Sep-93 Sep-94 Sep-95 Sep-96 Sep-97 Units Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Occupancy Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep % 95.00% 93.00% 91.00% 89.00% 87.00% 85.00% 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 107

108 Low Volume of Apartment Construction Volume of units under construction very low Unusual for a period of strong employment growth Low interest rates and large supplies of single-family homes are part of the reason But rising interest rates and slowing construction are bringing this to an end 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 108

109 QUESTIONS?

110 DADE COUNTY Economies of major Latin American trading partners good Tourism and convention business recovered strongly Business & Internet hub for Latin America Strongest areas airport, beaches, north and towards Homestead Redevelopment activity strong Severe overbuilding of condominiums 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 110

111 DADE COUNTY GROWTH IN EMPLOYMENT & POPULATION 34,000 24,000 14,000 4,000-6,000-16, Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 111

112 Dade County Sources of Employment Growth (YOY 12/06) 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000 Bus/Prof Ed/Health Trade Leisure Hosp Const Manf 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 112

113 Miami-Dade County New Homes Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $590,000 $540,000 $490,000 $440,000 $390,000 $340,000 $290,000 $240,000 $190,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 113

114 Miami-Dade County Existing Homes $450,000 $430,000 $410,000 $390,000 $370,000 $350,000 $330,000 $310,000 $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Value Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Sales Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 114

115 Miami-Dade County New Condo $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 $350,000 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Value Sales 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 115

116 Miami-D ade C ounty Existing C ondo $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Value Sales 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1,100 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 116

117 Dade County s s Housing Market Oversupplied Based on Housing Starts v. Households 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Single Multi Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 117

118 DADE COUNTY HOUSING STARTS 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 118

119 DADE COUNTY NON RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION Square Feet 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000, Local Retail Regional Retail Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 119

120 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 120

121 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 121

122 Ft. Lauderdale MSA Structural Change and Near Term Prospects Approaching build out Western Broward booms along I-75 Infrastructure investment challenges roads and schools Airport expansion big plus Renaissance of downtown Ft. Lauderdale Hollywood Beach rebuilds Slot machine gambling 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 122

123 BROWARD COUNTY POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 123

124 Broward County Employment Growth (YOY 12/06) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000 Bus/Prof Ed/Health Trade Leisure Hosp Const Manf 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 124

125 Broward County New Homes $820,000 $720,000 $620,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 $520,000 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $420,000 $320,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 125

126 Broward County Existing Homes Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $395,000 $385,000 $375,000 $365,000 $355,000 $345,000 $335,000 $325,000 $315,000 Value Sales 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 126

127 Broward County New Condo $345,000 $325,000 $305,000 $285,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 $265,000 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $245,000 $225,000 Value Sales 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1, /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 127

128 Broward County Existing Condo Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $250,000 $240,000 $230,000 $220,000 $210,000 $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 Value Sales 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 128

129 Broward s s Housing Market Balanced Based on Housing Starts v. Household Growth 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Singles Multis Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 129

130 15,000 10,000 5,000 BROWARD COUNTY HOUSING STARTS Single Family Multifamily 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 130

131 BROWARD COUNTY NON RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION 15,000,000 SQUARE FEET 10,000,000 5,000, Local Retail Regional Retail Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 131

132 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 132

133 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 133

134 QUESTIONS?

135 Broward County Permitted square feet of Retail Space v. Population Growth 3, , , , , ,000 42,000 37,000 32,000 27,000 22,000 Stores Population 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 135

136 Broward County -- Ratio Store area / Population growth /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 136

137 PALM BEACH COUNTY STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND NEAR TERM TRENDS Broward approaching buildout Condominium overbuilding Affordable housing and competitive position Scripps.. The muted impact Retirement and tourism remain key drivers Growth management challenges, land availability, and land costs Redevelopment opportunities Growth shifts north but not to Jupiter or Stuart PGA Corridor focus of growth 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 137

138 PALM BEACH GROWTH IN POPULATION & EMPLOYMENT 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 138

139 Palm Beach County Employment Growth (YOY 12/06) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000 Bus/Prof Ed/Health Trade Leisure Hosp Const Manf 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 139

140 Palm Beach County New Homes $815,000 $715,000 $615,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 $515,000 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $415,000 $315,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 140

141 Palm Beach County Existing Homes $1,500,000 $1,300,000 3,000 $1,100,000 $900,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 $700,000 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $500,000 $300,000 Value Sales 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 141

142 Palm Beach County New Condo Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $650,000 $600,000 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 142

143 Palm Beach County Existing Condo $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $250,000 $200,000 Value Sales 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 143

144 Palm Beach s s Housing Market Starts v. Household Growth 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Single-family Multifamily Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 144

145 PALM BEACH COUNTY 15,000 HOUSING STARTS 10,000 5, Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 145

146 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 146

147 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 147

148 PALM BEACH COUNTY NON RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION (SQUARE FEET) 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 148

149 QUESTIONS? Slides available at Fishkind.Com

150 QUESTIONS?

151 Tampa Bay STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND PROSPECTS New roadway corridors stimulate growth Veterans Freeway Suncoast Parkway Return of job creation Pinellas County Approaching buildout Employment center Pasco County flourishes Housing bubble unwinds 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 151

152 Tampa Bay Growth in Population and Employment 49,990 39,990 29,990 19,990 9,990 (10) Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 152

153 Tampa Bay Housing Starts 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Single Family Multifamily 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 153

154 Tampa Bay Non Residential Construction in Square Feet 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000, Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 154

155 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 155

156 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 156

157 PINELLAS COUNTY GROWTH IN POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, , Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 157

158 Pinellas County New Homes $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 158

159 Pinellas County Existing Homes $370,000 $320,000 $270,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $220,000 $170,000 Value Sales 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 159

160 Pinellas County New Condo $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 $300,000 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $250,000 $200,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 160

161 Pinellas County Existing Condo Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $310,000 $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 Value Sales 1, /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 161

162 PINELLAS COUNTY HOUSING STARTS 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 162

163 Pinellas County Non Residential Construction Square Feet Put in Place 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 163

164 HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY GROWTH IN POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000-10, Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 164

165 Is there a Housing Bubble in Hillsborough County? 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Singles Multis Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 165

166 Hillsborough County New Homes $670, $570, $470, Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 $370,000 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $270,000 $170,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 166

167 Hillsborough County Existing Homes Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $310,000 $290,000 $270,000 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 Value Sales 2,700 2,200 1,700 1,200 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 167

168 Hillsborough County New Condo $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 $180,000 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $160,000 $140,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc

169 Hillsborough County Existing Condo $340,000 $290,000 $240, Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 $190,000 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $140,000 $90,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 169

170 HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY HOUSING STARTS 15,000 10,000 5, Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 170

171 Hillsborough County Non Residential Construction Square Feet 10,000,000 5,000, Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 171

172 Pasco County Growth Population and Employment 19,500 14,500 9,500 4, Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 172

173 Pasco County Growth of Households v. Starts 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Singles Mulits Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 173

174 Pasco County New Homes $950,000 $750,000 $550,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $350,000 $150,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 174

175 Pasco County Existing Homes $515,000 1,700 1,500 $415,000 1,300 $315,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $215,000 $115,000 Value Sales 1, /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 175

176 Pasco County New Condo $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $150,000 $100,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc

177 Pasco County Existing Condo Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 $110,000 $100,000 Value Sales 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc

178 Pasco County Housing Starts 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 178

179 Pasco County Non Residential Construction in Square Feet 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 179

180 Hernando County Growth Population and Employment 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 180

181 Hernando County Residential Market Balance 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Singles Multis Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 181

182 Hernando County New Homes Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $250,000 $230,000 $210,000 $190,000 $170,000 $150,000 $130,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc

183 Hernando County Existing Homes Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 $140,000 $130,000 $120,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 183

184 Hernando County Housing Starts 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 184

185 Hernando County Non Residential SqFt Installed 1,000, , , , , Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 185

186 QUESTIONS?

187 Citrus County Growth Population and Employment 3,500 2,500 1, (500) Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 187

188 Citrus County Housing Starts 2,000 1, Singles Multis 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 188

189 JACKSONVILLE MSA - STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND NEAR TERM TRENDS Competitive strengths continue in Finance, insurance, back office functions BRAC a plus and future potential with Cecil Field Increasingly attractive to retirees Major development activity Southern Duval County Northern St. Johns County Clay County near the River 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 189

190 Jacksonville MSA Growth Population & Employment 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Population Em ploym ent 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 190

191 Jacksonville MSA Housing Starts 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Single Family M ultifamily 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 191

192 Jacksonville MSA Commercial Construction (square feet) 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 192

193 Overnight Visitors 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000, /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 193

194 Deplaning Passengers Growth Year-Over Over-Year 15.00% 5.00% -5.00% % % % % May-01 Jul-01 Sep-01 Nov-01 Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 194

195 Jacksonville MSA -- Permitted square feet of Retail Space v. Population Growth 2, , , , ,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Stores Population 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 195

196 Duval County Growth Population & Employment 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 196

197 Duval County Starts v. Household Growth 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Single-family Multifamily Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 197

198 Duval County Housing Starts 10,000 5, Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 198

199 Duval County Commercial Construction (square feet) 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, Local Retail Regional Retail Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 199

200 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 200

201 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 201

202 St. Johns County Growth Population & Employment 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 202

203 St. Johns County Households v. Housing Starts 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Single-family Multifamily Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 203

204 St. Johns County Housing Starts 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 204

205 St. Johns County Commercial Construction (square feet) 1,000, , , , , Local Retail Regional Retail Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 205

206 Clay County Growth Population & Employment 9,500 7,500 5,500 3,500 1, Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 206

207 Clay County Households v. Housing Starts 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Single Family Multifamily Households /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 207

208 Clay County Growth Housing Starts 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Single Family Multifamily 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 208

209 Clay County Commercial Construction (square feet) 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Inst Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 209

210 NASSAU COUNTY GROWTH IN POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, , Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 210

211 Nassau County Households v. Housing Starts 1,400 1,200 1, Single Family Multifamily Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 211

212 Nassau County Housing Starts 1,400 1,200 1, Single Family Multifamily 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 212

213 Nassau County Commercial Construction (square feet) 600, , , , , , Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 213

214 Flagler County Growth Population & Employment 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 214

215 Flagler County New Homes $455,000 $405,000 $355,000 $305,000 $255,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $205,000 $155,000 $105,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc

216 Flagler County Existing Homes $338, $288,000 $238,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $188,000 $138,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 216

217 Flagler County New Condo $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 $400,000 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $300,000 $200,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc

218 Flagler County Existing Condo $860,000 $760,000 $660,000 $560,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $460,000 $360,000 $260,000 Value Sales 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc

219 Flagler County Housing Starts 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 219

220 QUESTIONS?

221 MANATEE COUNTY STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND NEAR TERM PROSPECTS Development boom along I-75 corridor and in North County Mix of retirees and primary households Retirement growth remains strong Pricing makes Manatee attractive Politics becoming more difficult Infrastructure challenges 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 221

222 Manatee County Population and Employment Growth 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 222

223 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Is There A Housing Bubble in Manatee County? Single Multi Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 223

224 Manatee County New Homes $475,000 $425,000 $375,000 $325,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $275,000 $225,000 $175,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 224

225 Manatee County Existing Homes $495,000 $445,000 $395,000 $345,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $295,000 $245,000 $195,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 225

226 Manatee County New Condo Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $3,160,000 $2,660,000 $2,160,000 $1,660,000 $1,160,000 $660,000 $160,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 226

227 Manatee County Existing Condo $430,000 $380,000 $330,000 $280,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 $230,000 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $180,000 $130,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc

228 Manatee County Housing Starts 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 228

229 Non Residential Construction 4,000,000 Square Feet Put in Place 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 229

230 STRUCTURAL CHANGE Sarasota 2050? SARASOTA Lack of land in Lee and Collier Counties High quality/resort oriented areas within 1-hour of airports favored Naples comes to Sarasota Growth focused in South County 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 230

231 SARASOTA COUNTY GROWTH POPULATION & EMPLOYMENT 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 231

232 Sarasota County Household Growth v Starts 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Single Multi Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 232

233 Sarasota County New Homes $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $250,000 $200,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 233

234 Sarasota County Existing Homes Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Value Sales 1,400 1,200 1, /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 234

235 Sarasota County New Condo Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $630,000 $580,000 $530,000 $480,000 $430,000 $380,000 $330,000 $280,000 $230,000 $180,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc

236 Sarasota County Existing Condo $450,000 $420,000 $390,000 $360,000 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 $330,000 $300,000 $270,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc

237 SARASOTA COUNTY HOUSING STARTS 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 237

238 SARASOTA NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION (Square feet) 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Hospital Inst./Government 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 238

239 QUESTIONS?

240 LEE COUNTY - STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND NEAR TERM TRENDS Tourism prospects strong Expansion of Airport Booming population in Lee County Insurance costs Property taxes Build out of coastal areas Scarcity of large undeveloped tracts of land will cause growth to peak and to move north New Interchange Del Prado Extension 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 240

241 Overnight Visitors 4,400,000 4,200,000 4,000,000 3,800,000 3,600,000 3,400,000 3,200,000 3,000, /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 241

242 LEE COUNTY GROWTH IN POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 242

243 Is There a Housing Bubble in Lee County? 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Single Multi Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 243

244 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 244

245 Lee County New Homes $440,000 $390,000 $340,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $290,000 $240,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 245

246 Lee County Existing Homes $438,000 $388,000 $338,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $288,000 $238,000 $188,000 Value Sales 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 246

247 Lee County New Condo Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 247

248 Lee County Existing Condo Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $840,000 $740,000 $640,000 $540,000 $440,000 $340,000 $240,000 $140,000 Value Sales 1, /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 248

249 LEE COUNTY HOUSING STARTS 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Single-Family Multi-Family 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 249

250 Lee County Non Residential Construction Put In Place (sqft( sqft) 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, Retail Local Retail Regional Hote l Office Industrial Warehouse Inst Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 250

251 Collier County Structural Changes and Prospects New roadways in North County stimulating commercial development Rural Land Stewardship Program East County successful so far Ave Maria Big Cypress Coastal areas built out High land prices obstacle to economic development and affordable housing 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 251

252 COLLIER COUNTY GROWTH IN POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 252

253 Collier County Household Growth v. Starts 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Single-family Multifamily Households 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 253

254 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 254

255 Collier County New Homes $645, $545, $445,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $345,000 $245,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc

256 Collier County Existing Homes $870,000 $770,000 $670,000 $570,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $470,000 $370,000 Value Sales 1, /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 256

257 Collier County New Condo $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 $600,000 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 $400,000 $200,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 257

258 C ollier C ounty Existing C ondo $480,000 $430,000 $380,000 Dec-04 Jan-0 5 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-0 6 Jul-06 Aug-06 $330,000 $280,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 258

259 COLLIER COUNTY HOUSING STARTS 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Single Family Multifamily 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 259

260 COLLIER COUNTY NON RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION (square feet) 1,500,000 1,000, , Retail Local Retail Regional Hotel Office Industrial Warehouse Inst Govt 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 260

261 Charlotte County Structural Changes and Prospects Babcock Ranch Murdock Village Lingering impact of hurricane New interchange Del Prado Difficult permitting environment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 261

262 Charlotte County Growth Population and Employment 4,500 2, , Population Employment 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 262

263 Charlotte County New Homes Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 Value Sales 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc

264 Charlotte County Existing Homes Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 $240,000 $230,000 $220,000 $210,000 $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150,000 Value Sales 1,400 1,200 1, /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 264

265 Charlotte County New Condo $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 $200,000 $150,000 Value Sales 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc

266 Charlotte County Existing Condo $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 $150,000 $100,000 Value Sales /29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc

267 1/29/2007 Fishkind & Associates, Inc. 267