Climate change impacts on stand production and survival, and adaptation strategies to build resilience

Transcription

1 Climate change impacts on stand production and survival, and adaptation strategies to build resilience Jody Bruce, Michael Battaglia and Libby Pinkard July 14 CSIRO LAND AND WATER

2 Potential impact Exposure climate models downscaled to 1km EXPOSURE The degree to which a system is exposed to climatic variation SENSITIVITY The degree to which a system is affected by climate-related stimuli CHANGE OF STATE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Capacity of a system to adjust to climate change, moderate potential damage or cope with the consequences RESILIENCE The susceptibility of a system to adverse effects of climate change including variability and extremes 2

3 Potential impact Exposure climate models downscaled to 1km EXPOSURE The degree to which a system is exposed to climatic variation SENSITIVITY The degree to which a system is affected by climate-related stimuli Sensitivity locally conditioned: species, soil depth, nutrients, age... Management history CHANGE OF STATE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Capacity of a system to adjust to climate change, moderate potential damage or cope with the consequences RESILIENCE The susceptibility of a system to adverse effects of climate change including variability and extremes 3

4 Potential impact Exposure climate models downscaled to 1km EXPOSURE The degree to which a system is exposed to climatic variation SENSITIVITY The degree to which a system is affected by climate-related stimuli Sensitivity locally conditioned: species, soil depth, nutrients, age... Management history Changed state this is in the future and we don t know it modelling with assigned probability of outcome CHANGE OF STATE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Capacity of a system to adjust to climate change, moderate potential damage or cope with the consequences RESILIENCE The susceptibility of a system to adverse effects of climate change including variability and extremes 4

5 Potential impact Exposure climate models downscaled to 1km EXPOSURE The degree to which a system is exposed to climatic variation SENSITIVITY The degree to which a system is affected by climate-related stimuli Sensitivity locally conditioned: species, soil depth, nutrients, age... Management history Changed state this is in the future and we don t know it modelling with assigned probability of outcome CHANGE OF STATE ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Capacity of a system to adjust to climate change, moderate potential damage or cope with the consequences RESILIENCE The susceptibility of a system to adverse effects of climate change including variability and extremes Adaptation: the things we can do

6 What is a process-based model? Input level Soil Photosynthesis Leaves Roots Weather etc Output level Forest products CAI hectares days-years One or more levels up

7 Under what situations is CABALA designed to work? Single species stands and belts Simple soils, only N limitation Coppice stands Silvicultural interventions, weed understory and pests Happy to deal with average trees Available soil water (mm) Years Multiple rotations but generally only -1 years per rotation Can generate tree size class distributions, and link to wood quality models Stand volume (m 3 ha -1 )

8 CABALA validation Eucalyptus globulus Pinus radiata Evapotranspiration =Tree transpiration + soil evaporation + canopy interception

9 Stand volume, m3/ha Response to eco 2 A B C Atmospheric CO2 partial pressure, ppm Some examples of the predicted volume response of E. globulus to increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations: (A) cold wet site with either shallow nutrient poor soil or deep nutrient rich soil; (B) cold wet or hot wet site with deep nutrient rich soils; (C) hot wet site with deep nutrient rich soil or hot dry site with shallow nutrient rich soil. Atmospheric CO2 partial pressure, ppm Av max Temperature ( o C) Av min Temperature ( o C) Av annual Sites Rainfall (mm) Cold dry Cold wet Hot dry Hot wet

10 Sensitivity analysis Soils Management The silvicultural regime used for E. globulus was a 1 year rotation planted at 1 stems per hectare For P. radiata, planting was at 1333 sph, with a rotation length of 3 years, and three commercial thinning events. The first thinning was at age 11 with the reduction to 7 sph, the second at age 19 years to 4 sph and the final thinning at age 26 years to sph. Climate With and without eco 2 1 Climate change impacts on stand production and survival, and adaptation strategies to build resilience: Jody Bruce

11 Change in production from current production 3 CSIROMK3. for Pinus radiata Percentage change in total volume of P. radiata in 3 and compared with 199 total volumes under assumption of eco 2 and no eco 2 response. The climate model is the CSIRO MK3. GCM and the soils are medium fertility, deep soils. 11

12 Number of surviving rotations out for Pinus radiata The survival of Pinus radiata plantations under 199 and 3 climate change conditions with and without eco 2. Survival refers to the number of rotations that survived out of. The climate model is the CSIRO MK3. GCM and the soils are medium fertility, deep soils. 12

13 Change in production from current production 3 CSIROMK3. for Eucalyptus globulus Percent change from current production of E. globulus under a range of modelling assumptions The climate model is the CSIRO MK3. GCM and the soils are medium fertility, deep soils. 13

14 Predicted mortality within stands for Eucalyptus globulus End of rotation survival of E. globulus as stems per hectare after initial planting density of 1 sph in 3 under ambient and eco 2 The climate model is the CSIRO MK3. GCM and the soils are medium fertility, deep soils 14 Presentation title Presenter name

15 Interaction of fertility and warming temperatures Impact of fertility on responses of E. globulus productivity to changing climates, percentage change is shown for 3. The climate model is the CSIRO MK3. GCM, no eco 2 response and the soils are medium fertility soils and low fertility soils. The depth of the soil remains the same. Presentation title Presenter name

16 Adaptation 3 1 Site B Site A Site G Site C a. E. globulus reference sites a. b. 1 Site C a. b SPH1 (Original) SPH8 (Option 1) SPH8 fertiliser (Option 2) Site H Site F Volume 14m 3 ha Site F Volume 14m 3 ha Stems per ha remaining (%) Volume m 3 hab. -1 P. radiata reference sites Stems per ha remaining (%) b SPH1 (Original) SPH8 (Option 1) SPH8 fertiliser (Option 2) a. b. 1 Site B Site E Site E Site I SPH1 (Original) SPH8 (Option 1) SPH8 fertiliser (Option 2) Stems per ha remaining (%) a b a. a. Site C SPH1 (Original) SPH8 (Option 1) SPH8 fertiliser (Option 2) SPH1 (Original) Stems per SPH8 ha (Option remaining 1) (% b Eucalyptus globulus SPH1 (Original) SPH8 (Option 1) SPH8 fertiliser (Option 2) SPH8 fertiliser (Option 2) Stems per ha 6remaining 7(%) 8 9 Stems per ha remaining 16 Presentation title Presenter name

17 Adaptation Site F Site E a. b SPH 1 (Original) SPH 1 fertiliser (Option 1) SPH 8 (Option 2) SPH 8 fertiliser (Option3) SPH 1 (Original) SPH 1 fertiliser (Option 1) SPH 8 (Option 2) SPH 8 fertiliser (Option3) Stems per ha remaining (%) 4 3 a. b. Site F 1 8 SPH 1 (Original) SPH 1 fertiliser (Option 1) SPH 8 (Option 2) SPH 8 fertiliser (Option3) SPH 1 (Original) SPH 1 fertiliser (Option 1) SPH 8 (Option 2) SPH 8 fertiliser (Option3) Site F a. b. Site E 1 Site E Site H 8 Site I 6 4 SPH 1 (Original) SPH 1 fertiliser (Option 1) SPH 8 (Option 2) SPH 8 fertiliser (Option3) SPH 1 (Original) SPH 1 fertiliser (Option 1) SPH 8 (Option 2) SPH 8 fertiliser (Option3) Eucalyptus globulus Stems per ha remaining (%) Stems per ha remaining (%) 17 Presentation title Presenter name

18 Adaptation a. E. globulus reference sites SPH13 (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) 22 Site C SPH13 (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) 18 SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) 3 Site G 16 SPH13 (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) 14 SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) 12 1 Site E Site C 8 6 Site H b. P. radiata reference sites SPH13 (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH13 Volume (Original) m 3 ha SPH (Option ) e m 3 ha -1 SPH13 (Original) Site E SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) 3 SPH13 (Original) SPH13 (Original) 1) SPH13 (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH16 (Option 1) 18 Site G 2 Thin 2) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) e me m 3 mha 3 ha -1-1 Volume SPH13 (Original) m Volume m 3 3 ha ha -1-1 Site H SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH13 (Original) 3 SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 (Original) 18 SPH13 (Original) Site H Site G SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH16 (Option 1) Site I SPH16 SPH13 (Option 21) Thin (Option 2) ion 2) 16 SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) Presentation title Presenter 12 name 1 1 uency quency Site F SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) 3 22 SPH13 (Original) Site Site D SPH16 SPH13 (Option 1) (Original) C SPH13 2 SPH16 Thin (Option (Option 2) 1) 18 SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) Site 11 I Site E SPH13 (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) Volume Volume m 3 ha m 3-1 ha Pinus radiata Volume Volume m 3 ha m 3-1 ha SPH13 (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH13 (Original) SPH13 (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) Site G SPH13 (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) Site Site I H SPH13 SPH16 SPH Volume m SPH13 (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) Volume m SPH13 (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2)

19 22 SPH13 (Original) Site C 22 3 SPH13 (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 SPH13 (Original) SPH13 (Original) 2 Thin (Option 2) 18 Site C SPH13 (Original) 11 Site 1D 14 SPH16 (Option ) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) Volume SPH13 m2 3 Thin ha -1 (Option 2) SPH13 (Original) SPH13 (Original) Site E SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 (Original) 12 SPH13 (Original) 18 Site G SPH16 SPH13 (Option 21) Thin (Option 2) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH16 (Option 1) 1 SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH13 (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) Volume m 3 13 ha Volume m 3 1 ha SPH13 (Original) 2 Site Volume F m 3 ha -1 Site C 2 SPH13 (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 (Original) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) Site E SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 (Original) E SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) Site G SPH13 (Original) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH16 (Option 1) 11 1 Site E SPH16 (Option 1) SPH Thin (Option 1 2) SPH13 (Original) Site 1 G SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH16 (Option 1) Site H 14 3 ha SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH13 (Original) 1 Site E 1 12 SPH13 (Original) SPH13 (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 (Original) 188 Site Site HG Site I SPH16 (Option 1) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) 166 SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) Site I SPH13 11 (Original) Volume m 3 ha SPH13 4 Volume m 3 16 (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) ha SPH13 (Original) SPH16 (Option 2 Site E 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH13 2 Thin SPH16 (Option (Option 2) 1) SPH13 (Original) Site G 3 SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) 3 SPH13 (Original) SPH13 SPH13 (Original) Site (Original) H 3 Site I 16 Site 22 3 SPH16 D (Option 1) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 (Original) SPH13 (Original) 9 SPH13 Site 9 2 Thin C(Option 12) Site 1 H SPH Thin (Option 1 2) Site I SPH16 (Option 1) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin SPH13 (Option 2) (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option Volume m 3 2) ha -1 SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 3 2) Volume m 3 ha ha -1-1 SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) 18 SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH13 (Original) 8 SPH13 (Original) Site H 12 Site I SPH16 (Option 1) SPH16 (Option 1) 1 1 SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) 6 Pinus radiata SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) Volume 1 1 m 3 ha m 3 1 ha Volume m 3 ha Volume m 3 mha 3 ha -1-1 SPH13 (Original) Volume m 3 mha 3 ha -1 SPH13 (Original) Site -1 H Site I SPH16 (Option 1) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH13 (Original) 18 Site SPH13 G (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) 11 Site 1E SPH16 (Option 141) SPH13 (Original) Site 13 G SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) 16 SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) SPH16 (Option 1) 14 SPH13 2 Thin (Option Volume m 3 2) 16 ha Presentation title Presenter name ginal) tion 1) in (Option 2) Adaptation 1 Site C (Original) (Option 1) 2 Thin (Option 2) uency ency requency ency requency

20 Adaptation Site F Site E Site H Site I Site F SPH13 (Original) SPH16 (Option 1) SPH13 2 Thin (Option 2) a. b Two 3 Year Rotations (Original) Two 3 Year Three Rotations 23 Year Rotations (Original) (Option 1) Three 23 Year Rotations (Option 1) Site F Pinus radiata Presentation title Presenter name

21 Conclusions - impacts Some regions of the Radiata pine and blue gum estates may show decreased productivity in 3 compared to now. Other regions may show increased productivity however the response will be strongly determined by local conditions of soil depth and fertility. Model predictions are highly sensitive to the responsiveness of plantation species to eco 2. If forests are not responsive to eco 2 and sustained photosynthetic rate increases are not observed, -% or higher decreases in productivity may be seen in the Green Triangle, Gippsland and south-west Western Australia may be seen for both bluegum and radiata pine. These are currently some of the most productive plantation areas. If plantations respond favourably to eco 2, then productivity is predicted to increase in most regions except at the drier margins of the plantation estate where increased mortality will reduce expected production. Cold wet sites (for example plantations in the highlands of Victoria) where nutrients are limited may see an additional growth response due to increased nitrogen mineralisation under warmer temperatures. This benefit is not predicted for drier environments where water is the main resource limiting to growth. We predict a general decrease in survival in warm dry regions if the response to eco 2 is limited. In cold environments, survival generally improves in response to warmer temperatures. Those sites currently in the well performing core of the plantation estate may be slightly affected in production (up or down) by climate change, but our modelling shows little change by 3 or even. However, areas at the dry margins of the estate are vulnerable and in the worst instances look highly likely to fail. 21 Presentation title Presenter name

22 Conclusions - adaptation For 3, for many parts of the plantation estate good silvicultural management has the potential to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. For E. globulus, modelling suggests reducing the initial stocking to 8 sph in water limited environments can substantially reduce the risk of mortality in most instances without impacting on productivity. Fertiliser application can increase productivity to current levels but in some cases this will be at increased risk of mortality. For P. radiata, modelling suggests that in most cases, increasing the initial stocking to 16 sph or reducing the number of thinning s to two and delaying the first thinning will increase productivity, though it is uncertain how the risk of mortality will change under this management. For P. radiata in very marginal sites, where extreme droughts are possible, shortening the rotation may improve overall productivity by reducing the exposure to extreme events. In locations where no adaptation options could be identified for E. globulus, P. radiata may be a suitable alternative species to plant. 22 Presentation title Presenter name

23 3 South-west WA 3 Volume change with no elevated CO 2 (Medium fertility, deep soils) Least favourable Most likely Most favourable Percentage change in production from current % > Median Mortality (remaining SPH from 1) Number of rotations where there plantation failure(out of1) 23

24 Eucalyptus globulus in 3 South-west WA 3 Volume change with no elevated CO 2 (Medium fertility, deep soils) Least favourable Most likely Most favourable Risk Percentage change in production from current % SPH < 7 catastrophic mortality /1 decrease in volume of - to -% > Median Mortality (remaining SPH from 1) Number of rotations where mortality was catastrophic (out of1) 24

25 Thank you CLW Jody Bruce t e jody.bruce@csiro.au w CSIRO LAND AND WATER FLAGSHIP

26 Risk Adaptation to changes in production mortality SPH < 7 catastrophic mortality /1 decrease in volume of - to - % Volume m 2 ha -1 Stems per ha remaining (%) Effects of changes in stocking and fertiliser application on production and mortality Volume m 2 ha Stems per ha remaining (%) Effects of changes in stocking and fertiliser application on production and mortality Volume m 2 ha Stems per ha remaining (%) 26 Effects of changes in stocking and fertiliser application on production and mortality