Inland waterways and extreme weather EWENT and ECCONET projects results

Transcription

1 Aus Datenschutzgründen wurde das automatische Herunterladen dieses Bilds von PowerPoint gesperrt. Inland waterways and extreme weather EWENT and ECCONET projects results Juha Schweighofer, D.Sc. PIANC PTGCC Meeting, Koblenz, October 4 th, 2012 Source: Aker Arctic

2 Content via donau EWENT - ECCONET Extreme weather effects on inland waterway transport Climate change projections Adaptation measures via donau I 2

3 The Rhine/Meuse-Main-Danube waterway as TEN-T axis Priority Project 18: "Rhine/Meuse-Main-Danube" North Sea Rhine Main Main-Danube Canal Danube Black Sea via donau I 3

4 via donau sites & course of Austrian Danube Founded in 2005 on the legal basis of the Austrian Waterway Act 100% ownership by the Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology Passau Wachau 78% impounded sections 2 free-flowing sections Lock Head office Site Office Bratislava 350 km Danube 9 Danube locks 9 Company locations 270 Employees east of Vienna via donau I 4

5 EWENT Example Danube via donau I 5

6 ECCONET Effects of climate change on the inland waterway networks Funded within FP7 by the European Commission Duration: Website: via donau I 6

7 ECCONET - Consortium via donau I 7

8 Water regime Source: via donau Based on Moser, presentation given at Kongress der Zentralkommission für die Rheinschifffahrt, 2009, Bonn. via donau I 8

9 Drought capacity utilisation Reduced cargo capacity utilisation Duration long (2003, 2011) D eadw eight [t] Draught [m] Source: DST via donau I 9

10 Drought sailing times Increase Increased fuel conumption Delivered power P D [kw] Low water Sufficient water 800 KW Ship speed [km/h] Source: Modified after DST via donau I 10

11 Drought specific costs Large vessel Small vessel Increase Small vessels less sensitive Year Water depth GMS specific costs Gustav Königs specific costs Development of the specific transport costs of a large motor cargo vessel (GMS) and a small motor cargo vessel (Gustav Königs) as a function of the water depth. Transport of bulk cargo from Rotterdam to Basel. Source: DST. via donau I 11

12 Drought accidents Grounding Development of grounding events on the Upper and Middle Rhine within 2002 and Based on WSD Südwest. via donau I 12

13 High water suspension of navigation When HNWL reached Depending on area Often short lasting phenomenon Austrian stretch via donau I 13

14 High water river morphology Sedimentation Aschach on the Danube: : m 3 Total in 2002: m 3 Aggradation Damage of towpaths Damage of banks and flood protection installations Recent example: August 2002 Costs e.g.: Austrian Danube: 3 Mill EUR (2002) and 2 Mill EUR (2003) Total transport infrastructure: 110 Mill EUR Changes in the river cross-section geometry of the Danube at river kilometre in 2002, being partly caused by the flood in August. via donau I 14

15 Ice (1) Prevented operation of locks Damage of navigation signs and installations on banks Suspension of navigation Impact locally different Ice occurrence in locks on the Danube preventing their operation. Source: via donau. via donau I 15

16 Ice (2) 0 0 D D A A Y Y S S Rhine: no suspension due to ice since 1970! via donau I 16

17 Ice (3) Main-Danube Canal Austrian stretch via donau I 17

18 Other weather phenomena Wind, storms: Increased requirements on maneuverability and course stability Main cause for accidents due to environmental reasons Reduced visibility Reduced speed or interruption of navigation via donau I 18

19 Climate change in Europe hydrology (1) Floods (end 21st century) Finland, Russia, South Spain: 100-year return levels of river discharge (floods): decrease Rest of Europe: almost no changes or increase of floods Consideration of floods will gain importance Source: Peseta via donau I 19

20 Climate change in Europe hydrology (2) Rhine Low water NM7Q Summer: almost no change till 2050 for all relevant gauges (KLIWAS, ECCONET) Significant decrease by 42% by KNMI06 W+ at Lobith Winter: moderate increase in discharge Mean discharges: no clear tendency 100-year return levels of discharge: No changes till 2100 by Peseta Source: ECCONET Del. 1.3, 2012 No suspension of navigation due to ice on the Upper and Central Rhine since 1970! via donau I 20

21 Climate change in Europe hydrology (3) Upper Danube (till 2050) Annual discharge: slightly decreasing Maximum discharge: slightly decreasing Minimum discharge: almost no change Danube at Vienna Till 2100 changes become significant 100-year return levels (floods, Peseta): Upper and Central Danube: No change (A2) or moderate increase (B2) Lower Danube: No change (A2) or significant increase (B2) Source: ECCONET Deliverable 1.3 via donau I 21

22 Climate change in Europe - glaciers Glaciers influence of melting ice on discharge: Currently most significant in August 10 % (Achleiten, Glowa Danube) Vienna most significant in August 2% (Pöyry Energy GmbH) Vanishing glaciers only little or negligible influence on discharge of Danube Ice occurrence decreasing Temperature [ C] Air and water temperature of the Danube in Austria increasing via donau I 22

23 Climate change in Europe visibility and wind Reduced visibility clearly decreasing for most airports in Europe Indication for better visibility conditions in IWT Wind gusts till 2050: almost no change in the Rhine-Main- Danube corridor Source: ESSL- European Severe Storms Laboratory (Pieter Groenemeijer), EWENT Deliverable 2.1 via donau I 23

24 Effects of climate change on navigation (qualitative) Source: ECCONET, Deliverable 1.4, 2012 via donau I 24

25 Waterway adaptation - strategic issues (1) Measures with significant effect on nature problematic Integrative approach recommended (e.g. Joint Statement) First measures to be taken now (improved maintenance) High potential for improvement related to waterway management and usage of ICT On medium and long term: RLWL+0,5 infrastructure measures (e.g. groynes) local framework conditions via donau I 25

26 Waterway adaptation - strategic issues (2) Commitment by the EC related to promotion of IWT /TEN-T projects) Internationally agreed standards are to be fulfilled => Inland waterway transport will benefit from infrastructure measures Fairway conditions expected to be better than today Provision of determined fairway conditions allows the economical usage of the current fleet as well as the proper design of the future fleet as framework conditions are known RLWL+0,5 High water occurrence and floods need to be considered more in detail via donau I 26

27 Summary Extreme weather events problem today Uncertainties are still high Floods are not projected to decrease for European waterways (except Finnland, Russia and South Spain) Low water: No convincing evidence for increase in severity till 2050 Ice occurrence is decreasing Visibilty is impoving Wind activity in the Rhine-Main Danube corridor: almost no change Rhine-Main-Danube corridor: No decrease in the performance of inland waterway transport due to climate change till 2050 Research need: Central and Lower Danube RLWL+0,5 First adaptation measures: infrastructure via donau I 27

28 Is there something positive about climate change? via donau I 28

29 Juha Schweighofer, D. Sc., MRINA via donau Österreichische Wasserstraßen-Gesellschaft mbh A-1220 Wien, Donau-City-Straße 1 Tel , Fax juha.schweighofer@via-donau.org, via donau I 29