Data, Baseline and Predictability supporting the Runway Safety Team
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1 Data, Baseline and Predictability supporting the Runway Safety Team ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar - Dubai Bob Graham EUROCONTROL Head of Airport Research 3rd June 2014
2 Scary! ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 2
3 ATC is an unpredictable yet safe aircraft separation system ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 3
4 Thinking about Runway Safety Teams I will talk to European strategic approach: top down meets bottom up! Data Driven finding and mitigating issues, setting targets. Baseline the Concept of Operation do what you said you would do! ATC Safety Nets - a bottom up example of human system integration Summary ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 4
5 European strategic approach top down meets bottom up! 1460 Runway Safety Incidents in Europe 80 considered serious! ICAO Global Runway Safety Symposium 2011 rate of runway incursions has not decreased in more than 20 years! Two runway incursions every day in the European Region! ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 5
6 European strategic approach top down meets bottom up! EUROCONTROL Strategic Approach High Level Dash Board: 5 Safety Issues Occupied Runway Landing without a clearance Safety issues lead to focused Action Plans and Local Mitigation We model safety with IRIS Incident, Risk Assessment Model Supports safety design Helps develop Target Levels of Safety Valid for Current Operations, and Deploying change FAA Integrated Safety Assessment Model (ISAM) ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 6
7 anisational_defences_against_runway_incursion Resource EUROCONTROL Runway Safety Team: EUROCONTROL runway safety site EUROCONTROL Plan for the prevention of runway incursions EUROCONTROL Plan for the prevention of runway excursions IANS: Aerodrome Resource Management - Runway Safety [APT-ARM] ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 7
8 European strategic approach top down meets bottom up! Resource Future Integrated Capability Integrated Risk Model - IRIS Integrated Safety Assessment Model (ISAM) Eric Perrin eric.perrin@eurocontrol.int Sherry Borener Sherry.borener@faa.gov ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 8
9 Data Driven finding and mitigating issues Do you know your runway (s)? Data mining and big data techniques Key attributes, event paths and trend prediction Prepare a baseline for: Safety issue detection Monitoring Change safety case and benefit assessment Set and monitor safety targets ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 9
10 Baseline the Concept of Operation do what you said you would do! Controller Hand Book or Local Manual of ATS Is it up to date? Do you do what you say you do? Baseline against the data! Basis for safety assessment and deploying change Opportunity to develop further to support safety arguments and change Use cases, Scenarios Models Don t deploy change without validating what is happening today. RST responsibility: safety continuity and early detection of deviation ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 10
11 ATC Safety Nets - building in Predictability Why do we need safety nets..? ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 11
12 ATC Safety Nets - building in Predictability Top down meets bottom up Our Runway Safety Issues: - Landing without a Clearance - Detection of Occupied Runway Closer analysis of the safety data shows different aspects to runway safety ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 12
13 ATC Safety Nets - building in Predictability Landing without a Clearance and Detection of Occupied Runway Traditional mitigation Training Education Procedures System support mitigation: Safety Nets Dependent on A-SMGCS Surveillance Routing and Planning Electronic strip systems Conformance Monitoring for Controllers - Alerts and Alarms ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 13
14 ATC Safety Nets - building in Predictability SESAR ATC Safety Nets - targeting 24 Airports Conformance Monitoring for Controllers - Alerts and Alarms Compares planned/cleared to actual Identifies unauthorised movement or errors Brings predictability to operations Is validated through human in the loop real time simulation Is safety assessed by IRIS Will go to live trials in 2015 Deployment through to 2023 ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 14
15 ATC Safety Nets - building in Predictability A-SMGCS RIMS CONFLICT CMAC: Alerts A-SMGCS RIMS CONFLICT CMAC: Alarms CATC Alerts TOF/LUP CROSS/TOF ROUTE DEV RWY INCURSION ENTER/TOF RWY/TWY TYPE ROUTE DEV CROSS/LND STATIONARY NO TOF CLR ENTER/LND RWY CLOSED NO LND CLR TOF/LND TXY CLOSED STATIONARY IN RPA LUP/LND NO PUSH/TAXI CLR RED STOP CROSSED TOF/TOF NO CONTACT/TNR HIGH SPEED Different Safety Nets Available LUP/LUP LND/LND ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 15
16 ATC Safety Nets - building in Predictability No Landing Clearance (Alarm) GOBOB GOBOB GOBOB GOBOB ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 16
17 ATC Safety Nets - building in Predictability Runway Incursion (Alarm) GOBOB ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 17
18 ATC Safety Nets - building in Predictability RED Stop Bar Crossed (Alarm) GOBOB GOBOB ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar GOBOB Dubai - EUROCONTROL 18
19 ATC Safety Nets - building in Predictability An integrated approach to safety: Top down strategic goals (our issue) and State Targets Integrates system capability and the controller An airport by airport basis tuning, reflects local concept Requires a change to traditional operations concept & culture change Validated through scenarios, update of concept of operation Can be measured so is subject to Target Levels of Safety TLS feed back to the airport and the strategic goals Runway Change should be owned by the Runway Safety Team ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 19
20 ATC Safety Nets - building in Predictability Resource ATC Safety Nets Roger Lane Roger.lane@eurocontrol.int SESAR Joint Undertaking Olivier Mongenie Olivier.mongenie@sesarju.eu Anna Wenneberger ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 20
21 Summary My Aim was to provide a European view of an integrated top down, bottom up approach to runway safety, owned by the Runway Safety Team. ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 21
22 Summary EUROCONTROL strategic approach monitoring and capturing top safety issues; development of action plans and local mitigation, resources available on the web to the RST; do you know your runway need for data assessment and introduced IRIS, a resource also available to the RST pleaded that you ensure you have an up to date concept and that you do what you said you would do; suggested that you baseline your concept and data to support safety targets and operational change; provided an example of an integrated system controller change ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 22
23 Summary observed that safety is part of our business, it has a value and investment in safety will bring a return on investment. consider that. for an individual airline: average cost of a go-around is between 1000 and 1500 Euros 1 minute of delay costs in the region of 90 to 113 Euros Having a motivated multi-disciplined Runway Safety Team pays!! ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 23
24 Thank you. ICAO Middle East Regional Runway Safety Seminar Dubai - EUROCONTROL 24
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