MET matters in SESAR. Dennis HART

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1 MET matters in SESAR Dennis HART

2 Implementing the Single European Sky Performance Safety Technology Airports Human factor -Performance scheme -Performance Review Body -EASA -Crisis coord. cell European ATM Master Plan SESAR Joint Undertaking Common projects Airport observatory -Specific sectoral dialogue Committee -Functional Airspace Blocks -Network Manager -National Supervisory Authorities -Consultative expert group on social dimension of the SES

3 The SESAR Phases Definition phase Create European ATM Master Plan Development Phase Develop new standards, operational procedures and technologies Deployment Phase Implement results of development to meet performance targets 06/2009 Launch 07/ contributors 20 projects 09/2009 Airlines on board 03/2010 1,300 contributors 150 projects Today 3,000 contributors 300 projects 29 validation exercises

4 SESAR involves All Actors EUROPEAN COMMISSION EUROCONTROL Founding Members Founding members Airports Ground Industry Airborne Industry Air Navigation Service Providers Staff associations Airspace users National Authorities/ Military R&D community

5 MET partner in SESAR EUMETNET Consortium contracted by EUROCONTROL on behalf of SESAR Joint Undertaking

6 SESAR Concept of Operations is a Paradigm Shift for ATC Past Today Future Procedural Control the current and planned a/c positions Radar Control Know the current and estimate planned a/c positions Trajectory Management Know & share the current & planned a/c positions 6

7 SESAR Priority Strategic Business Needs MOVING FROM AIRSPACE TO 4D TRAJECTORY MANAGEMENT TRAFFIC SYNCHRONISATION NETWORK COLLABORATIVE MANAGEMENT AND DCB AIRPORT INTEGRATION AND THROUGHPUT CONFLICT MANAGEMENT AND AUTOMATION Integrating airspace Integrating users airports - flight time systems synchronised to build operations predictable of surface time trajectories synchronised and flight flight turn-around precision Improving Integrated with Integrating arrival/departure Integrating airspace airport users operations The Intranet airports - time management flight systems and to build planning and for Air Traffic synchronised sequence predictable building time airspace user Management operations of to allow synchronised flying flight flight planning surface closer to the precision trajectories and flight turn-around optimum trajectories Human operators concentrate on high value-added tasks SYSTEM WIDE INFORMATION MANAGEMENT The Intranet for Air Traffic Management

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10 Source NASA-Lewis Research Centre Ross Paulson photography 10

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13 More than 20% of the airport delays in Europe WX related 15% of the en-route ATFM delays in Europe WX related Boeing survey the highest training concern US NTSB: over 20% of the aviation accidents WX related

14 The questions on the table Does MET understands today's ATM System requirements Do ATM understands today's MET capabilities Do MET understand the future ATM System requirements Do ATM understand the future MET capabilities

15 We need better forecasts

16 Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position. But certainty is an absurd one - Voltaire 16

17 The Challenge Precautionary principle Managing Uncertainty with Confidence 17

18 Continue to work on. That bad forecasts should not preclude using MET information in ATM That the concept of doubt works in ATM

19 Impact Assessment / Risk Management MET Information Provider Capability ATM Actor Capability MET INFORMATION TRANSLATION of information into aviation constraints IMPACT ASSESSMENT Conversion of translated information in to operational impact on ATM Actor processes DECISION Impact mitigation 19

20 Levels of Integration Level 0: No integration I need to do it all in my head.. Level 1: Weather on the glass It is easier to figure out the impact.. MET Information Provider Capability ATM Actor Capability Level 2: Constraint Translation to ATM Constraint MET INFORMATION TRANSLATION of information into aviation constraints IMPACT ASSESSMENT Conversion of translated information in to operational impact on ATM Actor processes DECISION Impact mitigation Level 3: Impact Conversion to ATM Impact MET ATM Level 4: Decision Support Generation of Hierarchical Solutions Sources: Mitre, FAA, Eurocontrol, ICAO

21 Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction WP11.1 / WP-E

22 Probabilistic Trajectory Prediction WP11.1 / WP-E Enables improved knowledge based decision making, e.g.: Trajectory uncertainty (thus cost) is visible Cost index could use these (flight time) uncertainties Balancing flight time adherence vs total cost Sources: SESAR WP E Draft D2.2

23 Indicative Mapping MET to ATM & ATM to MET Domain Resolution Validity Range Refresh Rate GLOBAL 15 km [0-20 min] 20 min REGIONAL 1.5 km [0-20 min] 20 min LOCAL 0.3 km [0-3 min] Min-sec OBSERVATION Domain Resolution Validity Range Refresh Rate GLOBAL 3 km [0 2 h] 20 min REGIONAL 2.5 km [0 2 h] min LOCAL 1.5 km [0 2 h] 2-20 min NOWCASTING Domain Resolution Validity Range Refresh Rate GLOBAL 15 km [6-240 h] 6 h REGIONAL 2.5 km [2 24 h] min LOCAL 0.5 km [1-3 h] 20 min FORECAST YEARS 6 MONTHS DAYS HOURS MINUTES Long Term Mid/Short Term Execution TO

24 Identified key MET capabilities required for SESAR 1. Radar composite for 3D convection 2. Nowcasting of convection 3. Super-ensemble forecast of convection 4. Diagnostic for forecasting of icing 5. Diagnostic for clear air turbulence (CAT) 6. Forecast of impact of winter conditions at airport 7. MET parameters for Network management 8. MET parameters for 4D trajectory calculation

25 Aviation specific Distributed Core MET information from multiple providers High level technical architecture Indicative General MET Infrastructure & capabilities ATM-dedicated Aerodrome MET Infrastructure & capabilities Filtered and Tailored MET Information for ATM Consolidated Aviation MET Information Tailored MET-ATM Information European Consistent MET information MET-ATM Information Services Specific MET Information Services for ATM SWIM <Domain System> (ATM System ) MET observation servers <Domain System> (Network ATM System...) <Domain System> (Sub-regional ATM System ) <Domain System> (Local ATM System )

26 Thank you! Dennis (L.M.) HART Senior Aviation Meteorology Expert & SESAR MET Contract Manager