Small Aircraft Requirements & Potential Demand. Document Number: EPATS T5.3-SAReq&PotDem-V0

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2 Table of contents: 1. INTRODUCTION Small Aircraft Requirements in the context of CESAR Small Aircraft Requirements in the context of EPATS EPATS PRESENTATION Project summary EPATS concept EPATS objectives and rationale EPATS key goals that need to be achieved EPATS system components EPATS SATS differences List of participants Work Breakdown structure EPATS AIRCRAFT MISSIONS REQUIREMENTS AND POTENTIAL DEMAND, METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS Main parameters of mission requirements Main assumptions taken during demand forecasting and mission requirements setting for EPATS aircraft CRITICAL EXAMINATION AND EPATS CONSORTIUM STANDPOINT SYNERGY PROPOSALS CONCLUSIONS Page 2 of 20

3 1. INTRODUCTION Small Aircraft Requirements & Potential Demand 1.1 Small Aircraft Requirements in the context of CESAR The objective of CESAR Project is to create designing tools including aerodynamics, structural, propulsion and systems (WP1,2,3,4) design and integrating them in a one, complex system of small aircraft design (5 to 15 seats) including also optimization functions. This system will enable a higher level of automation of the design process followed by research costs decrease and improvements in small aircraft commercial transport development. The evaluation of these new technologies will be done by their practical applications during a aircraft sizing phase (Studies and Analyzes) and also by comparing the outcome with conventional design method. There were two of the group of small commercial aircraft selected: - non-pressurized twin-engine piston aircraft, - pressurized twin-engine turboprop aircraft (A turboprop engine was considered in the work package concerning propulsion unit WP3.) Aircraft sized by a conventional method, called reference aircraft were marked with the following symbols: AC1ref for piston aircraft and AC2ref for jet aircraft, and AC1 and AC2 in case of a new CESAR technology. The evaluation of the proposed technology will mainly base on the project outcome comparison including CAD model (aircraft 3-view), technical description and especially: empty weight of aircraft, drag and manufacturing and operating costs. The focus will be aimed at costs of reaching benefits estimation. Input data for aircraft sizing are the Top Level Design Requirements for Small Aircraft TLAR, piston as well as turboprop. The requirements should reflect the area of interest of small aircraft manufacturers. Remembering that the Requirements are only a base for comparison and evaluation process of the designing methods, the associated aspect of real market demand and manufacturers area of interest correspondence is, at this stage, a secondary issue. 1.2 Small Aircraft Requirements in the context of EPATS It is different if we consider the Requirements of small commercial aircraft that are one of the main topics and objectives studies of EPATS. In this case, the Requirements are analyzed in the context of the whole Small Aircraft Transportation System and they are the outcome of the analysis of potential market demand for new transport modes, as well as environmental protection limits and rational resources management. It concerns in general: energy, material, land use, harmful gases emission and noise. In this light, the Requirements correspond to the whole group of small aircraft optimal in terms of diversified demand and potential of the European market. The Requirements constitute a different types of aircraft characteristics description enabling the satisfaction of a wide range of utility missions: from few persons short or longer distance transport in specified conditions, in a given time and at specified costs (air-taxi, on-demand aircraft: piston, turboprop and jet) through regular service at the remote interregional connections (commuter) at appropriate fares. The key parameters of the Mission Requirements are the following: number of passenger s seats, comfort, speed, range, take-off and landing distance, flight conditions and associated constraints: fuel consumption, aircraft price, operating costs, regulations. Page 3 of 20

4 Large range of population income (few - few hundred Euro/h) and aircraft operating costs form 0,1 Euro/pas.km for piston aircraft through more than 1 Euro/pas.km for very light jets inclines that there is a need for matching the aircraft fleet structure up with population income distribution (and a resulting small aircraft transport demand). The objective requirements for EPATS aircraft are guiding small aircraft transport development and creating fundamentals to formulate a research theme for this development support and proposing it in the VII-th European Framework Programme. The requirements will be a base for the European Commission to announce an open competition for the best project(s) design(s) that fulfill(s) the requirements. The goals of EPATS programs are not only the development of affordable advanced technologies, but also the development of a whole new generation of small aircraft that are less expensive to manufacture, maintain, and fly than small aircraft today are. 2. EPATS PRESENTATION The explanation of the meaning of personal in the name of the project. The adjective personal means that some area of the European Air Transportation System is tailored to the personal needs, preference and resources of the population and is adapted to serve European & National Intercity low-density passenger flow, which cannot be profitably served by current Regional Airline neither by High Speed Train. Do not confuse with personal aircraft 2.1 Project summary The EPATS (European Personal Air Transportation System) focuses on the future Highly Customer Oriented and Time, and Cost Efficient Air Transport System. It fills niche between Surface and Scheduled Air Transport. Future mobility cannot be satisfied only through investments in hub and spoke, or rail - and highway systems. This future EPATS system will provide a wide choice of transportation mode - and the wider use of small aircraft, served by small airports, to create access to more communities in less time. The goal of the EPATS proposal is to demonstrate the needs and potential of small aircraft business development and to propose recommendations for the introduction of this new European Air Transportation System in the context of the European Research Areas. The EPATS study will address the following issues: The potential new market for personal aviation up to The potential impact of this new way of transport on the European ATM, and airport infrastructures, as well as the environmental, safety and security issues involved. The EPATS general specification and R&D Roadmap The studies will be carried out by a Consortium supported by representative experts of the EPATS stakeholder community. The deliverables of these studies will be rapports containing a joint vision of the personal air transportation system in Europe to 2020 and proposals for developing this new small aircraft business at a European level. The EPATS SSA proposal fits in the framework of FP Aero-2 Thematic call in the area of Aeronautics Specific Support Actions, especially: Developing an EU research strategy in the sector and Promoting SME participation. Page 4 of 20

5 2.2 EPATS concept Small Aircraft Requirements & Potential Demand The concept of the European Personal Air Transportation System (EPATS) is mainly based on: Using the already existing local and regional airports network (more than 2000), especially located on the periphery of European main transportation infrastructure, in the areas with low level of accessibility indicator (see Fig. 1 and Fig. 2) Using a potential enabled by the opening of Single European Sky and conducted research in the area of management and air traffic control by e.g. SESAR Using new technologies concerning aerodynamics, materials, propulsion, communication, navigation and control based on satellite systems Adjusting aircraft fleet and operational structures to interregional passengers flow, local demand and society needs Increasing economic efficiency of interregional air transport by creating small carriers and private aircraft owners friendly legal and economic conditions, promoting unification, standardization and integration of maintenance networks Including remote interregional communication networks areas (with low accessibility) into public transport financing Fig. 1: All airports and landing field in Europe Page 5 of 20

6 Fig. 2: Distances to Airports in Europe 2.3 EPATS objectives and rationale The objectives of the EPATS system is to fill the communication gap, which exists on interregional national and European destinations with underdeveloped transport network, located in a distance longer than 300 km, and where implementation of others modes of fast transport (high-speed rail, traditional airlines) is irrational due to too low flow density travel and where road transport is too disadvantageous in individual, social as well as ecological dimension. Another important objective of the EPATS is extending daily range (daily accessibility indicator) for intensive activity jobs, where people go to another place, do their business for a few hours and return home 2.4 EPATS key goals that need to be achieved To increase accessibility of remote regions by using all airports and decreasing generalized costs of travel. (see the current accessibility on Fig. 3 and compare with the possibility showed by Fig.1 and Fig. 2.) Door to door costs and times per trip that are competitive with those of cars and airlines for mid-range travel, - Safety rates comparable with those of commercial airlines and better than those of cars, - Environmental factors and global energy efficiency comparable with airlines and better than that of car, - Availability in low-visibility conditions through the GA infrastructure - Operational reliability higher than that of cars, - Complexity of operations and time and cost to achieve operator proficiency - Comfort of travel to a level comparable with travel by automobile and airline. Page 6 of 20

7 A i = f1 ( Opportunities)* f2( c ijm ) j m c ijm - generalized cost of travel from origin i to destination j by mode m Regions with poor accessibility Fig. 3: Potential accessibility of Regions in Europe Source: ESPON 2.5 EPATS system components The European Personal Air Transportation System is a complex collection of systems, procedures, facilities, aircraft and people. They work together as one system to ensure safe and efficient operation. The system includes: Network of all existing and future airports and airfields in Europe (satisfying the EPATS requirements an EPATS-compliant airport meets a set of desired characteristics appropriate for the community s transportation demand and requirements). Page 7 of 20

8 Pistons, turboprop and jet aircraft, having a capacity from 4 to 19-seats, fulfilling the requirements of FAR-23 or CS-23 and FAR 135 operating regulations, and performing EPATS missions specifications including economic, ecological and security efficiency. Air traffic management and control systems adapted to intensified air traffic generated by the EPATS. They include: radio, TMU and TFM, weather, radar, navigation and en route sites. Flight Service Station. Air carriers organizations including small regional airlines operating commuters, offering periodical transport, charter flights, as well as air-taxi companies doing ondemand service (Commercial operation, Corporate and Owner operated aircraft). Aircraft maintenance & management companies. Aircraft owners and users associations. Moreover, the system surroundings include: public transport powers (adequate local government units), aviation authorities, air traffic managers, aviation schools, aviation industry with its research and development centers. System aims to operate in the public transport infrastructure framework. 2.6 EPATS SATS differences The US SATS is mainly directed at the door-to-door travel time reduction and daily range of activity of businessmen increase. It is designed for the benefit of people, who had traveled by airlines until the moment and predominantly live in big agglomerations. SATS fleet structure includes 4-7-seat, both type, piston and jet aircraft, operating at small, as well as at large airports. The SATS aircraft are mainly owned privately and above all serve as private or corporate mode of transport. EPATS is, above all, focused at increasing access to high-speed modes of transport of remote European regions by adapting air transport means to the existing airport infrastructure and to the level of interregional passenger flow. It is generally targeted at people doing their long distance travels, so far, by car. The EPATS aircraft structure includes 4-7-seat piston and turbo aircraft, offering mainly airtaxi and on-demand service, as well as 9-19-seat turbo commuter with a low flow interregional scheduled transport, operating at small regional and local airports. The EPATS system is designed as public and corporate transport system, mainly. Page 8 of 20

9 2.7 List of participants Small Aircraft Requirements & Potential Demand Partic. Role. Partic. No. Participant name Partic. short name Country CO 1 Institute of Aviation IoA Poland CR 2 Eurocontrol Experimental Center EEC Europe CR 3 M3systems M3S France CR 4 National Aerospace Laboratory NLR Netherlands CR 5 Polskie Zakłady Lotnicze sp. z o.o. w Mielcu PZL M Poland CR 6 Rzeszow University of Technology RzUoT Poland CR 7 WSK PZL Rzeszów S.A. PZL Rz Poland CR 8 Budapest University of Technology & Economics BUTE Hungary CR 9 Windrose Air Jet Charter GmbH Windrose Germany CR 10 AD Cuenta AD Cuenta Netherlands Page 9 of 20

10 2.8 Work Breakdown structure EPATS European Personal Air Transportation System STUDY (SSA) WP1 WP2 WP3 WP4 WP5 WP6 European Business & Personal Aviation Data Base Market Potential of Personal Aviation Impact on European ATM, Airport Infrastructure, and General Requirements Mission s Specifications for EPATS Aircrafts EPATS Recommendations for Framework Program and Roadmap Project Management Aircraft Data Base Problem formulations & Efficiency Definition & Methodology Integration in ATM systems Mission requirements Proposals for Framework Program R&D topics Airports and facilities Data base Passengers mobility Future European airports parameters Operating costs analysis EPATS Roadmap Potential transfer of passenger demand to personal aviation Environmental and safety aspects Fuel consumption and transportation energy effectiveness analysis Workshops & Dissemination Identification of needs of further works and research Aircraft cockpit systems, (including cockpit HMI) Page 10 of 20

11 3. EPATS AIRCRAFT MISSIONS REQUIREMENTS AND POTENTIAL DEMAND, METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS It is assumed that EPATS family airplanes include pistons, turboprops and jets and they will meet CS-23 (FAR-23) requirements for normal category (up to 9 passenger seats and maximum takeoff weight up to 5670 kg ( lbs) and commuter category (up to 19 passengers seat and maximum takeoff weight up to 8550 kg (19000 lbs). Mission requirements for commercial personal aircraft are derived from the potential demand for high-speed transport and possibilities for satisfying it. Demand for transport modes is generated by population mobility. The choice of mode depends on its accessibility and individual preferences of traveler, which, apart from out-of-pocket costs, are the outcome of multiple determinants. The most important of the determinants are the following: time of travel, comfort, safety, preferences. All of the determinants have some monetary value, which may be expressed by financial costs or benefits. Passenger is likely to pay more if his travel time is shorter (value of time) or his travel comfort is higher (comfort value) or pay less at the expense of preferences or safety. The sum of all of these determinants is called a generalized cost of travel and it varies for different group of travelers. The best choice of transport mode consist in generalized costs minimization. To choose the best mode of transport is to aggregate the determinants values and using their intervals (distribution), because generalized costs are different for every traveler. Estimation of all determinants values that influence choices is a task that requires complex and expensive statistical research of population transport preferences; together with a feedback from characteristics generated by new modes of transport. Currently, direct costs and value of time in travel assumed as a derivative of population income were included to generalized costs only. The distribution of population income of every NUTS-2 region of the EU will be taken from the statistics. A relation of time value to income is clear for business purpose travel. In case of private travels it is more complex and controversial, therefore for EPATS aircraft demand analysis, a value of time in business was taken into account only. Business purpose travels constitute a crucial share of domestic and intra EU travels. Such a limitation justifies even stronger omitting the determinants such as comfort, preferences and safety. Subjective judgment does not play significant role in business purpose travels. This approach enables decision making between two modes of travel by calculating sustainable generalized costs curve, i.e. calculating such a theoretical value of time for which choice between two of the modes will be indifferent (Fig.4). By comparing real and theoretical value of time, it is possible to choose the best mode of travel in terms of generalized costs. For the analyzed range of distances, the curve enables break-even points estimation, below which, the analyzed mode will be better for traveler at a given value of time (level of income) at a given speed, in comparison to the reference mode. It obvious, that this break-even point can be unreal from the technical and operational point of view, however it should be known. A car was taken under consideration as a reference mode for cost limits of EPATS aircraft analysis. In the area, where high-speed train and airlines operate, small aircraft cannot be competitive because of natural reasons. Data concerning number of travels done and forecasted in respective EU countries, including business trips, along with modal split (personal car, coach, train, airline) will be taken from European projects, mainly from the ESPON program. Page 11 of 20

12 Indifference curves car/aircraft (example) Indifference curves car/aircraft Value of time [Euro/h] Effect of accommodation costs ctvalue 2, j ctvalue 3, j ctvalue 4, j ctvalue 5, j Citation jet Eclipse King Air Cirrus Lod j Distances [km] MathCAD equation Cpoop m, j Cpoop 1, j ctvalue m, j := ttr 1, j ttr m, j Fig. 4: Indifference generalized costs curves car/aircraft Finding the right mission for a transport mode is done by the determination of serviced routes (ranges), time (speed), capacity (passenger seats), level of comfort (cabin size, toilet, pressurization, vibrations, noise, flight quality), frequency of service, operational conditions, estimation of limits of travel: costs, energy consumption, construction, operation and environmental regulations. These tasks are an outcome of the forecasted passenger flow, that is estimated between locations (regions, cities) in the environment of existing transport infrastructure (roads, train, airports) and for passengers with the respective income distribution (value of time). There are the following relations: - ranges are determined by the distribution of length of connections between serviced airports, - speed and level of comfort are determined by the length of connections and travelers income distribution, - number of seats and frequency of service are determined by the passenger flow intensity, - operational conditions are determined by the current and forecasted airport infrastructure and air traffic control and management state. Page 12 of 20

13 The Operational Requirements of EPATS aircraft will be elaborated in two phases: At the first phase of EPATS development (2015) the ATM-ATC and Operational Capabilities of the aircraft will be similar to that of current new advanced small aircraft. At the second phase the proposed ATM-ATC and Operational Capabilities Envisioned for 2025 are conformable to those of US SATS and they are: Aircraft will be capable of operating in low visibility conditions airports without radar cover or assistance from air traffic control towers. Aircraft will require neither ground-based navigation aids nor approach lighting. Aircraft operations will be contained within existing airport terminal areas and protection and noise exposure zones. Operations will be environmentally compatible with communities near airports. Operators will vary widely in training, experience, and capability, having skills ranging from those required to pilot an airline to those required to drive an automobile. Automation and new flight control concept will replace human manipulation and decision making as primary control inputs. Onboard computers will provide realistic, real time tutorials and training, even during flight. Digital data link capabilities will provide the operator and aircraft with real-time and integrated weather, traffic, and airport information for dynamic modifications to flight plans. Interactions with air traffic management and control will be largely automated and will not require positive control. Aircraft will operate autonomously, providing guidance for self-separation from other aircraft and obstacles. EPATS users will interface with air traffic services only to the extent that they operate in controlled airspace and airports. A fully digital communication system will be in place, alleviating frequency congestion difficulties. Aircraft separation and sequencing will be accomplished by interaction of aircraft systems using the Global Positioning System (GPS) and automatic dependent surveillance and broadcast messages (ADS-B). Primary navigation service will be provided by GPS at all altitudes. Terrain and obstacle databases with data up-link capabilities, automation, and intuitive displays of the information in the cockpit will aid operators in avoiding collisions. Dynamic approach procedures will be calculated by onboard computers in real time to any runway end or touchdown point. New materials and engine and airframe designs, as well as mass production of aircraft, will allow for greatly reduced aircraft acquisition, maintenance, and operating costs. Ride smoothing and envelope-limiting protections will ensure ride comfort and safety. Page 13 of 20

14 Cost limitation is derived from population income distribution (which percentile of population benefits form the proposed mode of travel). Energy consumption limitation is a consequence of sustainable transport policy. It is assumed that the energy consumption of EPATS aircraft needed for one passenger-kilometer per time unit will not be significantly different from personal car. Interregional connection distribution, population income, passenger flow intensity, diversification of airport infrastructure and air traffic management and control systems determine one optimal choice for mission requirements and limitations for every interval. The more diversified aircraft types, the better fit for demand. However, in practice, the higher diversity generates higher manufacture and operation costs; these are the reasons for aircraft type limitation, together with their elasticity for specialized versions adjustments. A possibility to provide an easy function adjustment (number of seats, level of comfort, range) to the labile transport demand constitutes one of the main instruments of carrier operation cost decrease. Key information for the requirements and potential demand for EPATS aircraft estimation are present and forecasted volumes of interregional (NUTS-2 and NUTS-3) passenger flows and their structure (destination, time of travel, mode, travelers income distribution). All of the above is fulfilled by complete information on transport infrastructure, including airports and ATM-ATC systems. Considering lack of data, passenger flow volumes will be calculated using gravity method. The method will assume the level of Gross Domestic Product as an attraction force, generating the volume of transport and the exponential function of interregional distance, time and costs as an impedance. We think it is crucial to initiate or support currently done research on traffic flows even stronger, not only from EPATS point of view, but also due to rational planning of the EU transport development reasons. The continuous research should include all EU regions and subregions. Lack of this perspective is a significant flaw in strategic spatial planning and an obstacle for transport initiatives, including air-taxi and commuter. Page 14 of 20

15 EPATS aircraft missions requirements and potential demand scheme NUTS Socio-economic data * - inhabitants - GNP - Income distribution - Time value distribution NUTS Geographic & transport infrastucture data * - Surface - Capital coordinates - Roads - Airports data & coordinates - Distances between airports - ATM-ATC - Accessibility to airports Inter-NUTS (Interregional) Trips data * - Nuts generated trips by: reasons modes time value - Inter-NUTS trips distribution by: distances reasons modes time value 1 Specific transportation costs (price) and main characteristics of current mode of EPATS Aircraft Missions Requirements, Operational Capabilities and forecasted fleet Feasibility study & Research Programme EPATS Aircraft Specifications and specific transportation costs Current mode of transport / EPATS aircraft indifference cost curves calculation (Trip value of time via distance) Travel time Travel costs C TimeValue ( Cost = ( Time EpatsAircraft Current mod e Cost Time Current mod e EpatsAircraft ) ) 3 From trips distributions and indifference curves evaluate the preferred mode of transport Calculate the number of EPATS aircraft and operations needed to substitude current mode of transport If the results is not satisfied change EPATS Aircraft Requirements * For current year and 2020 forecast. Data sources: ESPON, EUNET, DATELINE, SCENES, EUROSTAT and others 1. Calculated using Gravity Model 2. From statistical data and calculation 3. Travel costs includes transportation cost and accomodation costs Time travel includes all elements of time from origin to destination 4. Taking the replacement need of existing old business and personal aircraft (above 20 years) into account. Page 15 of 20

16 3.1 Main parameters of mission requirements Main parameters of mission requirements are: - number of passenger seats of a given type of aircraft developed from the number of trips done between respective regions by passengers having income correlated to the cost of travel by a given type of aircraft, - aircraft speed as a function of travelers time value, distances, airport accessibility, time of waiting (passenger is interested in door-to-door time of travel, it is rational, therefore, to increase average speed, simultaneously limiting block speed that generates costs mainly), - typical mission profile, - aircraft range, which comes from the distribution of serviced routes (interregional connections), - start and landing characteristics adjusted to the existing regional and local airport network covering possible modernization plans, - comfort level (cabin space, toilet, pressurization, noise level, vibrations, ride quality, ), estimated at a number of levels depending on the average time of flight, target passenger income interval and generally accepted standards, - flight conditions depend on the existing and forecasted state of airport infrastructure, airspace structure and air traffic control and management systems. For second stage of EPATS development (2025), the conditions will be determined during SESAR project realization and EPATS airports requirements estimation. During the first stage of EPATS (2015) flight conditions will not be significantly different from the present practice. The mission requirements constraints are: - specific energy (fuel) consumption (as a measure of sustainable transport development condition), - aircraft price (limited by market demand), - operation costs (limited by users economic efficiency), - maintenance (labor hours per flight hours), - life cycle, - regulation requirements concerning aircraft construction (FAR-23, CS-23), operation (FAR-135). Technical Specification for aircraft are derived from mission requirements and their technical feasibility. They describe characteristics of an aircraft, that are necessary to achieve mission requirements and concern design tasks: crew, configuration, weight, size, propulsion system, performance, control, equipment, avionics, modular construction that allows to fit different configuration, etc. TS is a result of project studies and mission feasibility analysis as well as assumptions concerning possibilities of planned research-development programs realization. Technical specification for EPATS aircraft family will be prepared in the context and with the feedback from: - airport infrastructure requirements, - future ATM-ATC requirements. The following aircraft Technical Requirements will be highlighted: - propulsion (systems) requirements, for implementation after 2020, - two versions of cabin equipment requirements: Page 16 of 20

17 1) basing on the existing and certified systems and avionics, 2) basing on planned development and certification of systems and avionics initiatives, for implementation after Main assumptions taken during demand forecasting and mission requirements setting for EPATS aircraft 1. The key assumption is that transport users has knowledge about available transportation alternatives and will select their preferred mode of transport based on the generalized cost for each mode, where: Generalized cost = producer price + tax or subsidy + value of time + accommodation cost. 2. The main mode of transport, that EPATS is to compete in the interregional travel is a personal car. Regional airlines or express trains share smaller part in the volume of global passenger transport and for the routes directly serviced, experiencing enough frequency of flow are not endangered by small aircraft competition, except for a service provided to a small group of travelers that enjoy very high level of time value. This is the reason behind analyzing car travel, at this primary stage, only. The cases where EPATS competes with hi-speed train and regional airlines will be exemplified on several particular connections. 3. Interregional passenger flow will be calculated using a gravity method and data will come from the statistics and earlier projects (EPSON, EUNET, DATELINE, SCENES, EUROSTAT and others). 4. The costs of existing mode of transport will be estimated using: - for car travel: by using corporate car costs data, - for airlines travel: by using data of respective air carriers, assuming passengerkilometer cost as a division of global costs by volume of transport, - for train travel: using the existing transport fares. 5. EPATS costs of transport will be calculated according to the rules assumed in civil aviation with the levels of particular costs for respective countries present specifics or using the averaged EU values. The outcome of projects aiming at small aircraft costs reduction, as e.g. CESAR will be taken into account in costs calculations. Cost calculation method will be in accord with expert opinions from different countries. 6. Aircraft Technical Requirements will be determined in two versions: - using the existing technologies, - assuming positive effects of the planned research works. 4. CRITICAL EXAMINATION AND EPATS CONSORTIUM STANDPOINT The critics on Small Aircraft Transportation System known form the literature may be briefly presented as the following 1 : 1. The transportation costs of small Jets are high. There is no evidence to suggest that Very Light Jet aircraft could be made affordable for use by large numbers of people and businesses. It may be affordable for a handful of people only. 1 Future Flight: A Review of the Small Aircraft Transportation System Concept Transportation Research Board National Research Council. Special Report 263 Page 17 of 20

18 2. The least expensive small aircraft and those best suited for use in most small airports are piston-engine propeller airplanes. These aircraft do not appeal to most travelers because of their interior noise and vibrations, poor ride properties, and poorer safety record than jets. 3. Any changes in aviation, from new methods of air traffic control and pilot training and certification procedures to new aircraft materials and manufacturing processes, are subject to intense and thorough safety evaluations and validations that can take much time. Assessing and ensuring the safety of any one of the new capabilities and advanced technologies envisioned for EPATS would likely present many technical and practical challenges. The magnitude of the safety assurance challenge alone, is sufficient to call into question the plausibility of Small Aircraft Transportation System. 4. If EPATS does access major airports, the mixing of EPATS with non-epats aircraft in heavily used, controlled airspace and airports could create significant traffic management challenges. EPATS could have negative net effects on aviation s environmental compatibility by shifting travelers from larger aircraft, each carrying dozens of travelers, to smaller aircraft, each carrying a handful of travelers. Such a shift, resulting in a net increase in aircraft operations to carry the same number of travelers, would almost certainly increase aggregate energy use as well as emissions of various pollutants and would have other environmental impacts, even if EPATS vehicles offered considerable gains in fuel efficiency. 5. Infrastructure limitations and environmental concerns at small airports are likely to present obstacles to SATS deployment. Significant changes may require infrastructure modifications as well as investments concerning noise and other environmental concerns that have proved to be major impediments to the expansion of airports of all sizes and types. The EPATS Consortium position on the abovementioned opinions: Ad 1/ Relatively high cost of small jets transport about 1 Euro/passenger-km is the outcome of high speed (energy use, that generates the highest costs, grows proportionally to the third power of speed), relatively small jet engines efficiency, but also not optimally configured fleet of aircraft. Bearing these costs in mind, we gain a reward of time saving, operational elasticity and comfort. The economic efficiency of this mode of transport in Europe is in the groups of people earning more than 50 Euro/h. The EU population income distribution suggests 0.1% of inhabitants, i.e. around people can afford small jet travel. Assuming, that everyone of them makes 3 travels per year at a distance of 1000 km and 500 hours in the air yearly gives 3000 small 5-seat jet aircraft. If we consider a further growth of population and possibility of significant operation costs of Very Light Jets reduction, then it is possible, that the fleet of these aircraft may be few times larger in the next 15 years. Ad 2/ Transport costs of small piston aircraft at a speed of 300 km/h is comparable to the cost of personal car transport. But when traveling more than 300 km the evident benefits of air transport arise because of savings on accommodation costs. The expressed opinion on these aircraft corresponds to the whole fleet of general aviation including 60-year-in-service aircraft and the average life is 25 years. The modern piston aircraft do not differ from turboprops in terms of inner noise nor vibrations. GA accidents level indicators are prone to different factors coming from the method of data gathering or analyzing. There is no homogenous nor systematic research on the accidents of the General Aviation. The lists do not show aircraft Page 18 of 20

19 according to types, age, operation, service and accident causes. It is an obstacle which makes the authoritative comparison not possible. Large share of piston aircraft in all aircraft accidents is an outcome of aircraft age, poorer pilot qualifications and lower level of ground service quality. There is no rational reason that supports distinguishing accident indicator level of piston and jet aircraft, when both aircraft are of the same age, used in the same conditions and piloting skills. Comparatively lower piston infallibility than turboprop is compensated by lower speed, which is also a factor in accidents. In the travelers perspective, the fundamental disadvantage of small piston aircraft in comparison to jet is its ride quality. Piston aircraft flies in lower altitude, where turbulence or bad weather occurs. This problem has been known since the dawn of aviation, but not much was done to overcome the effects of turbulence. Flights were only moved to the higher levels. After implementation of turbocharger and 3-axis autopilot in small piston aircraft, the ride quality improved, still, however it was far from satisfactory. Complete suppression of vibrations caused by air turbulence requires more complex approach to damping system, which includes control and aircraft aerodynamic characteristics apart from automatics. From the technical side, the problem of ride quality is solvable. It requires, however, an approach ranging from in-lab research through in-flight tests. Such research are planned in the EPATS program. Ad 3/ We agree to the opinion, that EPATS realization bears multiple challenges. It is difficult, however, to accept the opinion, which denies Small Aircraft Transportation System due to costly insurance issue. It would incline, that the forecasted accident rate caused by the system will be greater, than the present, which means to question the assumed Requirements and putting the outcomes of research and development in doubt a priori. Ad 4/ The problem applies to the heavily crowded airspace around main airports and negative impacts borne by the transfer of passengers from larger to smaller aircraft, effecting in an increase of global energy demand in air transport and harmful gases emission increase. EPATS impact on EU airspace will be analyzed in a separate part of the studies and included in European Research Program SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research Programme). One of the main conditions of EPATS system implementation is limiting the global energy demand and harmful gases emission in interregional transport in comparison to the existing modes of transport and particularly road transport. System is mainly dedicated for servicing regions without direct access to airlines and hi-speed train. It is, therefore, no competition for them. A small group of high value of time travelers, choosing a small jet instead of existing airline or hi-speed train, will not form a significant share of total transport volume. This is why it does not exert any significant influence on global energy use and harmful gases emission. EPATS is a competition for personal cars. A car, as a transport mode, has the largest share of modal split. This is the rationale behind using a car as a reference mode to EPATS. Ad5/ It is obvious that most of small airports will require adaptation or improvements. It is assumed, that there will be prepared EU Requirements and Small Airports Modernization Plan, financed from the EU and Member States funds. It is estimated, that the average cost of small airport modernization should not exceed the equivalent of construction of one kilometer of highway. Page 19 of 20

20 5. SYNERGY PROPOSALS The EPATS Consortium supports an Integration Platform initiative for discussion, agreements and reference point for the issues concerning requirements and research programs in the area of small aircraft transport. The Consortium proposes to organize a small aircraft transport expert meeting during January The meeting purpose will be a discussion concerning initial proposals for small commercial and business aircraft requirements and research projects, analyzed in the framework of EPATS. The final objective of the meeting will be a common roadmap for Platform establishment and including this topic in Aviation Development Plans and European Programs. The platform should gather institutions and organizations interested in small aircraft development, analyzing interregional passenger transport and spatial organization and management, including organizations researching on socioeconomic and mobility of people, e.g. realizing ESPON, DATELINE or other programs. 6. CONCLUSIONS The EPATS requirements derives from utility and expense of air service, and these ultimately must be judged on the basis of its cost, safety, and convenience relative to other forms of travel, factoring in the potential savings in time, lodging, and ground transportation and the additional business opportunities that such direct service can provide. The potential demand derives from travel needs, service costs and per capita income distribution. The development of EPATS and revitalization of European General Aviation is not possible without EC cooperation and support, and a series of public and private partnerships. Page 20 of 20