REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE EXPOSURE PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT. 10 January 2014

Transcription

1 128 PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE EXPOSURE 10 January 2014

2 1 CONTENTS 129 Introduction 2 Aircraft Noise Modelling in New Zealand 3 Palmerston North City District Plan 4 Implications of Performance Based Navigation 5 Traffic Forecasts 6 Future Fleet Mix 26 Noise Modelling 30 - Modelling assumptions 31 - Runway usage based on wind 32 - Representative Day 33 - Flight tracks 34 - Noise contours (2047) Existing Runway 39 - Noise Contours (2047) 2500m Runway 43 - Noise Contours (2047) Composite Contours 47 Conclusions 48

3 2 INTRODUCTION 130 Palmerston North Airport Ltd (PNAL) has commissioned Airbiz to undertake an assessment of what aircraft noise exposure might be in the future, to monitor current noise exposure and to ensure that operations at the airport continue to comply with the noise exposure limits associated with land use control and noise exposure boundary contours in the Palmerston North City District Plan. It is standard practice at commercial airports around the world for airports or agencies to make regular assessments of what future noise levels might be as a result of air traffic evolution in terms of the number and type of aircraft. The review required an updating of aircraft traffic forecasts for the airport and modelling of existing and projected noise contours at the Palmerston North Airport (PMR). The updated passenger traffic forecasts have been primarily based on historical growth and the airport s business objectives and aspirations. The review has also taken into account the expected future levels of aircraft operations and aircraft types, as best we can predict at this time. It has also been based on the aircraft flight tracks in the vicinity of the airport as we know them to be operated today. However, it is possible that flight tracks may change in the near to medium term future as an outcome of a nationwide rollout (by 2015) of Performance Based Navigation (PBN) procedures by Airways Corporation 1 and airlines. The implications of PBN on future noise exposure is discussed shortly. The tasks undertaken in the preparation of the updated traffic forecasts and noise exposure forecasts were: 1. Review of recent airport traffic (passengers, aircraft) prepared by PNAL, considering any market or industry supply factors that might affect long term growth prospects and which might provide cause to review/adjust the forecasts. 2. Review of the airport business aspirations to define a clear narrative and associated contribution to the growth in passenger and aircraft movements. 3. Updating forecasts (passengers, aircraft movements, load factors, average aircraft sizes, GA, helicopters). 4. Disaggregating the aircraft movement forecasts into a noise mix compatible for input into the noise modelling, by: Aircraft types relevant for noise modelling Day/night split Runway direction split Flight path 5. Confirming the critical aircraft for single event purpose at night. 6. Modelling the potential noise exposure contours associated with the traffic forecasts. 1 Airways is the Air Navigation Service Provider in New Zealand

4 3 AIRCRAFT NOISE MODELLING IN NEW ZEALAND 131 Aircraft noise modelling is carried out in most countries, including New Zealand, using the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) computer modelling tool known as the Integrated Noise Model (INM). This model generates forecast noise exposure contours at varying cumulative decibel levels from inputs of aircraft movement numbers, direction of travel and aircraft types. In New Zealand modelling is conducted in accordance with the New Zealand Standard NZS6805:1992 which establishes maximum levels of aircraft noise exposure around airports for the protection of community health and amenity values whilst recognising the need to operate an airport efficiently. The Standard also provides guidance to territorial authorities on the inclusion of appropriate land use controls near airports within district plans. It is also established practice in New Zealand that territorial authorities publish in their district plans rules covering land use controls in the vicinity of airports. Typically there are two control lines published in district plans, being the Air Noise Boundary (ANB) and the Outer Control Boundary (OCB), although for some airports there are other more specific land use control boundaries identified. The OCB is usually set to in correspondence to a long term future view of noise exposure at a level of 55 Ldn 1 while the ANB is set at a higher noise exposure level of 65 Ldn. NZS6805 recommends that the following land use controls occur inside the ANB: New residential, schools, hospitals or other noise sensitive uses are prohibited; Steps shall be taken to provide existing residential properties with appropriate acoustic insulation to ensure a satisfactory internal noise environment; Alterations or additions to existing residencies or other noise sensitive uses shall be permitted only if fitted with appropriate acoustic insulation. NZS6805 recommends that the following land use controls occur inside the OCB: New residential, schools, hospitals or other noise sensitive uses should be prohibited unless a district plan permits such uses, subject to a requirement to incorporate appropriate acoustic insulation to ensure a satisfactory internal noise environment; Alterations or additions to existing residencies or other noise sensitive uses should be fitted with appropriate acoustic insulation and encouragement should be given to ensure a satisfactory internal environment throughout the rest of the building. 1 The term Ldn refers to Day/Night Level, and is the time-average sound level in decibels over a three month period, with a penalty weighting for noise at night time.

5 4 PALMERSTON NORTH CITY DISTRICT PLAN 132 The Palmerston North City District Plan 2 publishes objectives and land use control limits following established New Zealand practice and generally in accordance with NZS6805:1992. These are contained in Section 20 of the operative District Plan. Objective 6 of Section 20 of the District Plan is To avoid, remedy or mitigate the adverse effects of aircraft noise on noise sensitive activities in the vicinity of the Palmerston North Airport. Objective 7 of Section 20 is To avoid, remedy or mitigate the potential adverse effects of noise sensitive activities in the vicinity of Palmerston North Airport on efficient airport operations. This refers to the avoidance of reverse sensitivity effects. Map of the District Plan shows an Outer Control Zone (which at 55 Ldn corresponds to the OCB; an Inner Control Zone (60 Ldn); and an Air Noise Zone (at 65 Ldn corresponding to the ANB). Various Rules of the District Plan define what are Permitted Complying, Discretionary, Non-Complying or Prohibited Activities within the Outer, Inner and Air Noise Zones. Periodically, Palmerston North Airport reassesses what noise exposure might be in the future, to monitor current noise exposure and to ensure that operations at the airport continue to comply with the noise exposure limits of the ANB and OCB. 2 Operative December 2000

6 IMPLICATIONS OF PERFORMANCE BASED NAVIGATION (PBN) PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE Performance Based Navigation (PBN) is a term used to describe the broad range of technologies and procedures that involves a major shift from conventional ground-based navigation aids and procedures to satellite-based navigation aids and area navigation procedures. These are more accurate and allow for shorter, more direct flight routes between given points as well as more efficient take-offs and landings. This reduces aircraft fuel burn, airport and airspace congestion, and aircraft emissions. Under PBN, aircraft can be expected to fly more closely and predictably along pre-determined flight paths, both laterally and in altitude. In 2007 the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) passed a resolution for States to develop implementation plans for PBN. PBN is being introduced within New Zealand in accordance with ICAO Global, CAA National, and Airways Regional PBN Implementation plans. Procedures are already in place at Auckland, Christchurch, Wellington, and Queenstown airports and have delivered significant operating benefits, specifically to airlines through shortened tracks between departure point and destination. Airways aims to achieve a nationwide rollout of PBN procedures by Planning for PBN procedures at Palmerston North has commenced and is also expected to be implemented by the end of The work is in its early stages of identifying issues and opportunities. Considerations include possible increased capacity, efficiency, reduced noise/and emissions, as well as reduced complexity in the airspace and improved safety. It is premature to point to possible outcomes but it could be anticipated that there may be changes to flight tracks in the Palmerston North airspace to save airborne time and fuel. There is a general scenario by which future changes to flight tracks under PBN should be made in ways that achieve desired outcomes for airlines and Airways while continuing to comply with existing District Plan noise exposure controls the Airnoise and Outer Control Boundaries. An alternative scenario could be that the flight track changes should, in part, seek to improve the current noise situation, to reduce noise exposure in more sensitive areas, principally over urbanised residential areas. Whichever way the planning proceeds, there remains a period of uncertainty for the next two years or so until the PBN planning is resolved. However, during that planning period, PNAL will need to work closely with the PBN working groups to review the noise exposure implications of various flight track options as they emerge, providing feedback to Airways, airlines and the Council. In the meantime, the current District plan noise contours should be maintained. They have provided consistent guidelines for land use planning controls for a long period since instituted. The noise exposure forecasts for 2045 presented in this study report show that: The District Plan contours are in close alignment with forecasts laterally to the runway (i.e. north and south of the Airport); and Provide moderate extents of margin over the current forecasts longitudinally at each end of the runway. The District Plan contours and their associated controls are serving their intended purpose in an optimal manner as intended, allowing airport operations the flexibility to grow over time and to adapt as required (e.g. PBN flight track changes) while controlling and avoiding reverse sensitivity effects from encroachment of new noise sensitive activities. It is premature to consider any changes to the District Plan contours.

7 TRAFFIC FORECASTS 6 134

8 REVIEW OF HISTORICAL DATA.. ~ Palmerston NO"r1h Airport \:;;J lteejqmmj 8<>;Jr1s This section presents historical data for passenger and aircraft movements. Indicative freight payload is also estimated based on the aircraft used for freighter operations with a load factor applied to determine the indicative cargo payload. PASSENGER MOVEMENTS Domestic The historical record of total annual domestic passenger movements since 1966 is shown below. SOO,(J()() Domestic Passenger Volumes - Palmerston North Airport At the time of the introduction of the Air New Zealand Domestic Express product in 2002/2003 the travel demand in the entire domestic network increased significantly, a trend also witnessed in the Palmerston North traffic volumes. International The historical record of total annual international passenger movements since the inauguration of International services at Palmerston North Airport til services stopped in FY2008 is shown below , , ,000,OO,~ 90,000 J International Passenger Volumes - Palmerston North Airport 3OO,(J()() "',~ 70, ,000.,,~ 200,000 50, ,000 <0, ,000 "'.~ SO,(J()() 1O.~ ;~;;~r::~~~~:e~~~;iii~i;i;;;ii$~s:818i~; ~s8 ~_~~~~~~~~~ ~~_~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ NNNNNNNNNNNNN 10,000 Domestic passenger numbers have grown steadily over time, with the exception of several periodic short-term traffic declines that can be attributed to adverse external economic events, as indicated above. FY98 "99 "00 "0' "02 FY03 "o. ryos "06 FY07 ry08 }III~IJII 71 PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE 7

9 REVIEW OF HISTORICAL DATA - PASSENGER MOVEMENTS PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE 8 500, ,000 Domestic International 400, Annual Passenger Movements 350, , , , , ,000 50, Year

10 9 REVIEW OF HISTORICAL DATA AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS Aircraft movements data is collected by Airways NZ and Palmerston North Airport. While Airways data account for all movements, the data collected by the Palmerston North Airport is for billing purposes hence leading to an underestimation of total movements because flights such as multiple circuit training are only billed once. The following table highlights the total number of aircraft movements as recorded by Air Traffic Service provider Airways NZ. General Aviation General Aviation movements vary significantly year on year, primarily based on operations by some of the key tenants such as flight schools. A sizeable component of that traffic involves circuit training where an aircraft successively lands and takes-off without coming to a full stop Movements 29,543 33,868 39,866 64,865 41,478 56, Domestic With the introduction of larger aircraft on the domestic market Palmerston North has seen a decrease in the volume of domestic commercial aircraft movements. International Movements 16,418 12,783 14,804 14,947 14,093 11,529 11,398 As mentioned previously, international services, and subsequently traffic volumes, to Palmerston North have not been continuous for a longer period of time Movements Freight As mentioned on the previous page freight movements at Palmerston North Airport have varied over the past 10 years. After good growth in 2004 the volume of movement remained fairly stable to 2008 after which it declined significantly. Diversions Movements 3,033 3,450 3,325 3,575 3,298 2,346 Palmerston North Airport functions as a natural recipient of aircraft diverted from Wellington Airport. Information received from the airport indicates that the volume of diverted aircraft has been around 130 per annum in the past. The graph on the following page illustrates the historical volume of aircraft movements by category from 2003 to 2012.

11 REVIEW OF HISTORICAL DATA - AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE ,000 90,000 80,000 Diversions Freight - Domestic General Aviation Commercial - International Commercial - Domestic 70,000 60, Annual Aircraft Movements 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Year

12 11 FORECASTS - APPROACH AND DRIVERS 139 This section describes the approach followed for updating the forecasts for Palmerston North Airport. Annual Domestic Passenger Forecasts Approach The annual domestic passenger forecasts have been generated from forecast growth rates assessed by consideration of short and long term historical trends, GDP and population growth forecasts. Validation of the reasonableness of the passenger forecasts has been made by undertaking regression analysis on historical passenger traffic for the key market modes (international and domestic). The principal indicators that have been considered in preparing the forecasts include: Historical growth rate trends for domestic passenger movements at Palmerston North Airport (examined as year-on year growth rates as well as rolling 5-year and 10-year average growth rates). Comparisons of these various historical and future growth indicators for domestic passenger segments are shown in subsequent slides. Various growth rate indicators derived from the historical records as well as other industry indicators are shown in the following chart. It is considered that there are several key factors which influence the demand for domestic travel in New Zealand and more importantly the actual outcome of traffic levels, noting that there may be periods where the supply of capacity is less than the latent demand. These factors include: 1. Income 2. Population 3. Air fares 4. International visitor demand (travelling on domestic services) 5. Airline fleet (capacity) decisions 6. Airline competition or the lack thereof

13 12 FORECASTS HISTORICAL GROWTH RATES 18% 13% 8% 140 3% -2% FY66 FY68 FY70 FY72 FY74 FY76 FY78 FY80 FY82 FY84 FY86 FY88 FY90 FY92 FY94 FY96 FY98 FY0 FY2 FY4 FY6 FY8 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24 FY26 FY28 FY30 FY32 FY34 FY36 FY38 FY40 FY42 FY44 FY46-7% Rolling 5 Year CAGR Rolling 10 year CAGR 20 Year Rolling CAGR NZ GDP (real) Growth Rate GDP Forecast Population Growth Manawatu Region (Stats NZ Forecast)

14 13 FORECASTS - PROJECTED GROWTH RATES 18% 13% 8% 141 3% -2% FY66 FY68 FY70 FY72 FY74 FY76 FY78 FY80 FY82 FY84 FY86 FY88 FY90 FY92 FY94 FY96 FY98 FY0 FY2 FY4 FY6 FY8 FY10 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 FY22 FY24 FY26 FY28 FY30 FY32 FY34 FY36 FY38 FY40 FY42 FY44 FY46-7% GDP Forecast Population Growth Manawatu Region (Stats NZ Forecast) High Forecast Growth Medium Forecast Growth Low Forecast Growth

15 14 FORECASTS DOMESTIC PASSENGERS 142 Domestic Passenger Forecasts In order to estimate reasonable growth rates, we examined the historical trends of several factors known to impact domestic air travel demand. A High, Medium and Low forecast scenario has been created applying the growth rates reflected in the below table: CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR High 3.0% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2% 1.8% 1.5% 2.3% Medium 2.5% 2.3% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.3% 1.0% 1.8% Low 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 1.3% The resulting passenger movements (in 5 year intervals) for each forecast are as follows: To validate domestic passenger forecasts, a series of regression analyses were performed on the historical traffic records. These correlations between passenger traffic and time have then been projected to 2047 and compared with the passenger forecasts tabulated. The figure on the following slide indicates that the domestic passenger high, medium and low growth forecast at FY2047 are within range of the historical regression undertaken. New Zealand domestic travel has grown significantly over the last 20 years in particular, since the advent of two airline competition in the trunk market and more recently in 2003 with the introduction of the Air New Zealand Domestic Express simpler product and fare structures. This validation suggests that the domestic forecasts are reasonable and flexible enough to allow the airport to adapt to systemic changes in the aviation market that could lead to an increase or reduction of traffic levels in comparison to historical growth levels High 521, , , , , , ,000 Medium 509, , , , , , ,000 Low 497, , , , , , ,000

16 Regression Range 815, , FORECASTS DOMESTIC PASSENGERS 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , Annual Passenger Movements Year 30 Year 20 Year High Medium Low

17 16 FORECASTS - DOMESTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS While passenger movements growth is the main driver of changes to aircraft movements growth, another key consideration is the evolving fleet mix and associated seats per aircraft. SABRE data (historic) related to domestic movements at Palmerston North Airport reflecting the actual aircraft mix is shown on the following slide. It shows that aircraft deployment to the airport has favored increasingly larger aircraft types over the past years. 144

18 FORECASTS DOMESTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS A320 Dash8-300 B1900 Saab 340 ATR72 Jetstream Others Weekly Aircraft Movements Year PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE 17

19 18 FORECASTS - DOMESTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS 146 The growth of the average aircraft size over the 11 years has been about 4%. This was significantly impacted by the purchase of, and subsequent deployment of DH8-300 aircraft by Air New Zealand. As such, a 1% CAGR in the average aircraft size has been applied over the horizon of these forecasts, reaching an average of 72 seats per domestic aircraft movement by This will be achieved through the increased deployment of the ATR72 (68 seats) recently purchased by Air New Zealand, the progressive withdrawal of the B1900 (19 seats) and the reintroduction of jet service at Palmerston North Airport (171/177 seats). By 2047 our adopted domestic fleet mix forecast assumes: ATR72 (or similar): 10% DH8 (or similar): 48% A320: (or similar) 42% The resulting aircraft movements (in 5 year intervals) for each forecast is as follows: High 12,200 13,400 14,400 15,300 16,100 16,800 17,200 Medium 12,000 12,700 13,400 13,900 14,300 14,500 14,500 Low 11,700 12,100 12,400 12,600 12,700 12,500 12,200 The following graph illustrates these forecasts up to 2047.

20 19 FORECASTS DOMESTIC AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS 20,000 18,000 16,000 Historical - Domestic Aircraft High Growth Medium Growth Low Growth 14, Annual Domestic Aircraft Movements 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Year PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE

21 20 FORECASTS - INTERNATIONAL SCENARIO International Palmerston North Airport is designed to cater for international operations and operated such services until Such traffic remains an objective for the PNAL and other stakeholders in the region. International traffic could be underpinned by: a. Outbound leisure and business travel by residents in the region (relates to contributing population base and GDP) b. Inbound VFR (relates to contributing population base) c. Inbound tourism (relates to attractiveness of the region as a destination). 148 The feasibility of a restart of international services is dependant on a range of factors that may evolve over time. For the purposes of an international passenger forecast we have therefore created a scenario based on weekly frequencies with an associated passenger growth based on assumed load factors. Under a high growth scenario involving the restart of international operations by 2016, we envisage it could involve 3 weekly frequencies (40,000 passengers) gradually growing over time to 15 frequencies (233,000 passengers) by The assumed fleet mix of this scenario is as follows: A320: 60% A321: 40%

22 21 FORECASTS FREIGHT 149 Domestic Freight Domestic freight volumes are difficult to assess within New Zealand due to a lack of data. However, it is possible to have an appreciation of an indicative payload by assessing the movements by air cargo airlines operating freight services to and from Palmerston North Airport. As such, our assessment is indicative and should not be reviewed as a formal quantified measure of goods transiting at Palmerston North Airport. The review of the existing freighter fleet specifications was performed with a nominal load factor applied to each movement. As we know the existing movements by freighter aircraft, the same assumptions will be extrapolated to 2047, hence allowing us to assess the growth in freighter movements over the horizon of these forecasts. The following table outlines these assumptions: Aircraft Capacity (Kg) Indicative Load Factor F27 5,000 80% 4,000 CV580 7,000 80% 5,600 SW4 2,000 80% 1,600 Payload (Kg) B733 16,500 80% 13,200 As air cargo traffic relies on similar growth rate indicators as passenger travel, and in the absence of accurate baseline information on domestic air cargo traffic at Palmerston North Airport, similar growth rates were used for domestic air cargo compared to domestic passenger movements. In practice, air cargo is a business that targets high value to weight ratio and time-sensitive products such as perishable goods, goods critical to regular operations of businesses (e.g. mechanical parts) or timesensitive paperwork (mail, courier). The discrete nature of this market means that there could be significantly more variability in the annual freight throughput, and therefore in aircraft movements. As a curfew-free airport, Palmerston North is an important reliever to Wellington International Airport which has a curfew in place. Air cargo being reliant on the ability to fly overnight means that the success of Palmerston North Airport s air cargo business will be driven beyond the needs of the City and Manawatu District, but to the entire South region of New Zealand s North Island. International Freight A scenario where scheduled international freight services are introduced at Palmerston North Airport was also developed. It was assumed that a weekly service would operate from 2024 onwards, growing to three weekly services by International freight services would in turn provide connecting domestic goods hence supporting the high growth scenario for domestic air cargo. The following chart illustrates the resulting aircraft movements projection for freighter aircraft.

23 22 FORECASTS FREIGHTER MOVEMENTS 8,000 7,000 6,000 Historical - Freight High Growth Medium Growth Low Growth 150 Annual Freight Movements 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Year

24 23 FORECASTS OTHER MOVEMENTS Projections of other types of aircraft movements was undertaken, namely for general aviation and diversions. 151 General Aviation As previously described, General Aviation movements vary significantly year on year, primarily based on operations by some of the key tenants. A scenario was developed where all General Aviation movements (flight training, private operators, helicopters) were grown at 1.5% per annum over the horizon of these forecasts. Although variations in these growth rates could significantly change the annual general aviation movements, the nature of these operations is such that significant variations will not impact significantly revenues, noise levels or infrastructure requirements. Diversions Palmerston North Airport functions as a natural recipient of aircraft diverted from Wellington Airport. A nominal increase of annual diversions over the horizon of these forecasts has been introduced to account for increased air travel, primarily from Wellington International Airport. This accounts for under 160 movements per year by 2047 but is considered because of the infrastructure requirements and potential timing of these operations.

25 24 FORECASTS UPDATE FORECASTS HIGH GROWTH SUMMARY This section describes the outcome of this assessment on passenger and aircraft forecasts up to 2047 under the high growth scenario which will be used for noise modelling purposes. Year Passengers Aircraft Movements ,556 88, Passenger Movements The number of passengers movements are assumed to be in excess of 1.2 million by 2047, driven by a scenario under which international services and domestic narrowbody jet services are reintroduced. Aircraft Movements The number of aircraft movements could reach as high as 112,000 movements by 2047 under the scenario where training operations remain an important component of business at the Palmerston North Airport. However, the share of commercial aircraft is expected to decrease as larger planes are projected to be operating at Palmerston North Airport as airlines acquire larger planes ,318 70, ,000 76, ,000 81, ,000 91, ,219, ,000

26 FORECASTS UPDATE FORECASTS TOTAL AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS HIGH GROWTH PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE , , , ,000 International - Freight Diversions Domestic - Freight General Aviation Commercial - International Commercial - Domestic 153 Annual Aircraft Movements 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 Historical Forecasts 40,000 20, Year

27 FUTURE FLEET MIX

28 27 EXISTING FLEET MIX 155 This section describes the existing fleet mix for 2012 based on the data collected. Commercial Aircraft The existing commercial fleet mix consists of the ATR72, Dash8 and B1900 aircraft operated by Air New Zealand. The following slide illustrates the evolution of the fleet historically and over the horizon of the high growth scenario. Freight Aircraft Freighters include the F27, Convair 580 and Metroliner aircraft. This fleet is characterized by a significant component of night movements (80-90%) General Aviation The General Aviation fleet includes a broad mix of aircraft but was narrowed to the most common types. Flight training aircraft primarily consist of DA40 and DA42 aircraft operated by the Massey Flight School. Diversions Palmerston North Airport is an alternate port, especially for Wellington Airport. This leads to a range of diversions of jet aircraft. In the table opposite, Itinerant Movements are those which start or finish at an airport other than Palmerston North, which includes all scheduled air services. Local Movements are those which start and finish at Palmerston North Airport, which includes most general aviation operations. Fleet Mix Movements (2012) Aircraft Types Noise Type Itinerant Local Night DA40 GASEPV 5,245 2% ATR72 DO328 5,287 6% Dash8-Q300 DHC830 3,656 1% Helicopters R22/SA350D 3,368 10,089 0% Beechcraft Baron (DA42) BEC58P 2,232 7,066 2% Cessna 172 CNA172 2,567 7,690 2% Metroliner CNA441 1,266 80% Convair 580 CVR580 1,174 80% Fokker27 HS748A % Generic Fixed Pitch GASEPF ,033 2% Cessna Caravan CNA % Airbus A A % Generic Business Jets CL % Boeing % Beechcraft 1900D B1900D % Total 28,642 41,879

29 28 PROJECTED FLEET MIX 156 This section describes the projected fleet mix for the horizon of these forecasts based on the high growth scenario for the purpose of noise modelling. The table opposite shows where changes are proposed to the existing fleet mix, resulting in the Projected Fleet Mix shown in the table on the next page. Commercial Aircraft For commercial aircraft, it is anticipated that Beech B1900D aircraft will be progressively withdrawn from the Air New Zealand fleet though the remainder of this decade, with Q300 aircraft operating these regional routes. Routes currently operated by Q300 are expected to see more ATR72 aircraft operating, as the turboprop fleet is up-gauged. Commercial narrow body jets expected to operate in New Zealand are likely to be a mixed fleet of A320 and larger A321 by the next decade, and this mix is considered to be appropriate as representative types for the future mix. Additional night movements are also assumed to occur. Freight Aircraft Convair aircraft are assumed to be replaced with B over the horizon of this plan while Fokker F27 are assumed to be replaced with a Dash8-Q300 or similar turboprop aircraft type. Provisions for international freight operations have been made using B , a typical aircraft for this range known to be operated by DHL. Night movements assumed to remain steady at 90%. Fleet Mix Changes Current Aircraft Types Retain or Change Rationale DA40 Retain ATR72 Retain Dash8-Q300 Retain Helicopters Retain Beechcraft Baron (DA42) Retain Cessna 172 Retain Metroliner type for future to PNAL type for future Cessna Conquest Better representative Convair 580 B Recent operator advice Fokker27 Dash8-Q300 Better representative Generic Fixed Pitch Retain Cessna Caravan Retain Airbus A type for future Retain in a mix with A321 Better representative Generic Business Jets Retain Boeing (as the largest type operating) Boeing Better representative for future largest type operating Beechcraft 1900D Dash8-Q300 Expected near-future fleet change

30 Total 45,314 66,688 PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE 29 PROJECTED FLEET MIX 157 General Aviation Fleet mix is assumed to remain as it is today (or similar) with a slight increase in night operations. Diversions Diversions are assumed to increase proportionally with overall traffic and generally assumed to be conducted by a typical narrow body jet aircraft (A320) considering the unforeseeable nature of this traffic segment. Fleet Mix (2047) Aircraft Types Noise Type Itinerant Local Night DA40 GASEPV % Dornier 328 DO328 7,190 10% Dash8-Q300 DHC830 6,471 10% Helicopters HELO % Beecraft Baron (DA42) BEC58P % Cessna 172 CNA % Cessna Conquest CNA441 2,189 90% Boeing ,249 90% Fokker27 Replacement DHC830 1,465 90% Generic Fixed Pitch GASEPF % Cessna Caravan CNA % Airbus A A ,471 25% Generic Business Jets CL % Boeing % Airbus A321 A %

31 NOISE MODELLING

32 31 MODELLING ASSUMPTIONS Modelling Year The assessment of possible future aircraft noise exposure has been modelled for forecast 2047 traffic levels. Runway Layout The main runway at Palmerston North Airport is currently 1,912m long. With the Airport Master Plan protecting for a 2,500m long runway, two operational scenarios were run with the existing and future runway. Circuits For circuit training, 20% of operations are assumed to be associated with the first take-off and last landing of the training session. The remaining 80% of circuit training operations are touch-and-go, which involves the quick succession of a landing and take-off. This equates to an average training sessions with 5 circuits including 4 touch-and-go. Helicopter circuits are assumed to operate off itinerant tracks. 159 Single-Event Contours The critical aircraft identified for undertaking single-event contours is the B , as it is likely to operate initially as the result of nightime freighter operations. Stage Length Aircraft departing on international flights were assumed to operate to stage 3 destinations ( nm) which corresponds to Australia s East Coast. In addition 10% of the diversions were assumed to be internationally-bound. Nighttime Departures Departures at nighttime (10pm to 7am), are assumed to be conducted up to a 10 knot tailwind off Runway 25. Grass Runway The grass runway is available only to lighter aircraft under limited circumstances. This runway was assumed to be used 5% of the time by light single-engine piston aircraft (GASEPV and GASEPF).

33 ~ <l: tn :LJ.J ~ -~ ~ : ~ _ ~ ---~ ---~- 0111, I~ 32 RUNWAY USAGE BASED ON WIND 160 A wind rose based on ten years of wind data ( ) was developed to confirm the likely runway usage at Palmerston North Airport. In order to assess the robustness of the contours, modelling was conducting with two (2) wind direction scenarios: Apr-Jun (52% Easterly) Aug-Oct (60% Westerly),:I: :f, Cl: :z :0 ~ ~ ~ o " - -: ~,... _... - :f :<./1 LJ.J is: " :I:; f-; :J: 0: --~ ~--i ',. " ',", ', ".: :,, ', ',.., ' ' '. ', ' ".'".' ",/,/,,,: PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE -~ " "

34 * Helicopter circuits were modelled on Arrivals/Departures tracks PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE 33 REPRESENTATIVE DAY 161 This section outlines the aircraft movement specifications for the modelling of noise contours at the Palmerston North Airport. A representative day was derived by taking an average day in 2047 and adding 15% more movements which currently corresponds to the additional load experienced over the year s 3 busiest months. Fleet Mix (2047) Representative Day Aircraft Types Noise Type Day Night Circuits DA40 GASEPV Dornier 328 DO Dash8-Q300 DHC Helicopters HELO * Beecraft Baron (DA42) BEC58P Cessna 172 CNA Cessna Conquest CNA Boeing Fokker27 Replacement DHC Generic Fixed Pitch GASEPF Cessna Caravan CNA Airbus A A Generic Business Jets CL Boeing Airbus A321 A Total (Representative Day)

35 34 FLIGHT TRACKS - ARRIVALS 162

36 35 FLIGHT TRACKS - DEPARTURES 163

37 36 FLIGHT TRACKS - CIRCUITS I~ ~ ~<I. l;( 0 ~. 164 ~-IP"Y"'ll,." PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE

38 37 HELICOPTER TRACK ARRIVALS 165

39 38 HELICOPTER TRACK DEPARTURES 166

40 NOISE CONTOURS (2047) WESTERLY WINDS / EXISTING RUNWAY PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE

41 NOISE CONTOURS (2047) EASTERLY WINDS / EXISTING RUNWAY PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE

42 NOISE CONTOURS (2047) WESTERLY WINDS / B763 SEL PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE

43 NOISE CONTOURS (2047) EASTERLY WINDS / B763 SEL PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE

44 NOISE CONTOURS (2047) WESTERLY / 2,500m RUNWAY PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE

45 NOISE CONTOURS (2047) EASTERLY / 2,500m RUNWAY PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE

46 NOISE CONTOURS (2047) WESTERLY WINDS / B763 SEL 2,500m RWY PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE

47 NOISE CONTOURS (2047) EASTERLY WINDS / B763 SEL 2,500m RWY PALMERSTON NORTH AIRPORT REVIEW OF FUTURE AIRCRAFT NOISE

48 47 NOISE CONTOURS (2047) COMPOSITE CONTOURS 175

49 CONCLUSIONS

50 49 FORECASTS UPDATE CONCLUSIONS 177 The noise contours have been reviewed and updated based on the best available information including consultations with key stakeholders such as operators, airport management and representatives of Airways Corporation. Peer reviews by Acoustec and Marshall-Day Acoustics were also reviewed to take into account recommendations. Despite the changes in noise modelling technology since the Palmerston North Airport noise contours were last updated, future operations (2047) are expected to still be conducted within and compliant with the boundaries currently set with the Palmerston North City District Plans except for slight discrepancies primarily associated with refinements to the modelling of helicopter noise and a sizeable difference in the number of training general aviation aircraft compared to previous modelling. Most of the encroachment over existing contours is contained on airport owned land. In the meantime, the current District Plan noise zone contours and land use controls should be maintained. They have provided consistent guidelines for land use planning controls for a long period since instituted, serving their intended purpose in an optimal manner as intended, protecting the amenity of residents from adverse effects of aircraft noise, while allowing airport operations the flexibility to grow over time and to adapt as required (e.g. PBN flight track changes), controlling and avoiding reverse sensitivity effects from encroachment of new noise sensitive activities. Since noise will generally spread along flight tracks, any area protected by noise contours should be utilized as enhanced flight procedures are introduced (Performance Based-Navigation).