I n t e r m o d a l i t y

Transcription

1 Innovative Research Workshop 2005 I n t e r m o d a l i t y from Passenger Perspective PASSENGER MOVEMENT SIMULATION PhD Candidate EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre (France) and University of ZILINA (Slovakia) Antonia COKASOVA antonia.cokasova@eurocontrol.int Supervisors: Vu DUONG, Francois JOUEN, Ludek BENO European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation

2 Contents - state of the art Why intermodality in aviation constraints and benefits Why from the passenger perspective - work done at the beginning Distance threshold / demand model Why and how to learn about passenger travel preferences - work done recently Intermodal airport terminal Passenger and luggage movement simulation Simulation input and objective - future work Simulation results analyses Dissertation writing

3 Data source: Network Capacity Demand Why intermodality in Europe - passengers wasting time by taking detour via hub airport - many short haul flights - 50% of traffic less than 800 km Robust traffic growth is anticipated in the coming years - fragmented network - 10% of city pairs represent 50% of traffic % traffic X% of the CP represent Y% of the traffic Y% of the flights fly less than X NM 100% Airport capacity problems are becoming visible 100% more than ever 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 70% 60% Substitution for short haul flights is much needed 50% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% Only HST has a commercial speed that can successfully 0% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% compete % of CP NM with air services % of the flights 90% 80% 40%

4 Constraints and benefits + - Reduce en-route & airport congestion Increased runway capacity Reduce travel time for passengers Reduced negative impact of transport on environment More balanced PAX modal split Freed slots used for long haul flights Increase airports catchment area More travel choice for passengers Higher passenger throughput at airports No clear liability arrangements between air and rail operators Luggage throughput Technical obstacles of ticket sales Operational integration Infrastructure cost investment Airlines reluctance in fear of loosing important city-pairs Railways ignorance in co-operation

5 Objectives and assumptions The objective of this study is to - analyze passenger perspective to air-rail intermodality and its impact on air transportation - understand passenger preferences as impact to intermodal airport - analyze passenger movement at an intermodal terminal Passenger perspective is the key element The layout of an intermodal terminal can strongly influence the outcome of integrated intermodal services efficiency

6 Travel time air vs. rail What is the efficient distance/time for PAX (TIME is prior to distance) distance 750 km 50 min 60 min??? 20 min 50 min 180 min +??? by air: 180 min + 56 min = 236 min by train: 70 min min = 236 min D = C + T + S C - cost T - time S - attractiveness C = θ C ia + θ O ia T = α T ia + γ A ia + δ W ia S = β H ia + λ P ia + µ S ia Paris - London rail - 57% air - 43%

7 Passenger movement at air-rail intermodal terminal ACARE - Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in Europe One of the ACARE challenges is to ensure that passengers spend only 15 minutes in the airport terminal for short-haul flights and 30 minutes for long-haul flights Limited information is available to describe passenger movement and requirements at an intermodal air-rail terminal General unknown in the field of intermodality is passenger behavior

8 Simulation objective Passenger flow at an intermodal air-rail passenger terminal 5. Traffic data 1. Passenger requirements preferences causes of delay at airports is the saturation at the various choke-points in the terminal Passenger Movement Simulation spare significant amount of time 4. Simulation tool 2. Airport PAX Information Reduction of demand on the airport resources considering passenger Shorter minimum connection time impact of intermodal passenger movement on minimum connection time, assuming that an intermodal transfer passenger should be able to 3. Airport Intermodal Terminal Passenger flow bottlenecks intermodal way of transport may cause several bottlenecks at congested areas

9 Simulation methodology complex process Our model can serve as a starting point for more complex intermodal simulations in the future 1. Passenger requirements 5. Traffic data 2. Airport PAX Information Passenger Movement Simulation 4. Simulation tool 3. Airport Intermodal Terminal

10 1. Passenger requirements Simulation input (1) Objective is to gain a sound knowledge of passenger requirements; to determine the most important travel attributes related to intermodal transport Passenger shift to high-speed rail depends on the level of satisfaction, not necessarily providing better services than air but fulfilling certain needs that stand in priority to others. Overview of passenger requirements based on questionnaires (Thalys, Eurostar, Lisbon, Paris CDG) Methodology stated preferences questionnaire (1) The main type of data collection instruments (2) The method of approach to respondents (3) The build-up of question sequences or modules (4) The order of questions within module (5) The type of questions to be used

11 Please see previous publications for more results on passenger travel preferences Questionnaire results 60% ticket price travel time access to airport or st 40% schedule & frequency walking & waiting time on-board comfort 10% on-board services luggage handling COKASOVA, A. (11/2004), Passengers Choice Between High-Speed Train and Air Transport, ICRAT2004, Zilina (SK) COKASOVA, A. (06/2005), Analyses of Passenger Preferences in Air-Rail Intermodal Transport, COST340, Paris (FR)

12 2. Airport PAX Information Simulation input (2) Enormous quantities of difficult-to-obtain input data, compared to the data requirements of models of passenger building operations, the data requirements of airside models are modest It is highly unlikely that, in any practical application, all the data needed for a detailed simulation of a building will be available Most findings are based on observation of passengers moving along the terminal

13 3. Airport Intermodal Terminal Simulation input (3) To achieve valid simulation results the best input is an existing airport layout instead of a fictive layout, with possibility of extending into an intermodal air-rail terminal strict security issues - out of 6 international European airports only 1 airport was willing to cooperate and provide us with layout and operational support A main national hub; in 1998 it had the world s highest passenger growth rate. In 2003 the airport processed a total of 9, 63 million passengers and was served by 58 scheduled services airlines

14 4. Simulation tool Simulation input (4) Human behaviour is hard to define in models; simulations of processes with people involved are less common than industrial simulations Absence of dominant simulation model Developed by the Preston Aviation Solutions PaxSim is a graphics-based application used for the fast-time simulation of passengers and associated baggage flow at an airport terminal building Possible to view actual flow of passengers, any potential bottlenecks and the ripple effect of passenger delays in other areas of the terminal

15 5. Traffic data Simulation input (5) Real traffic data from 29th of July 2005 delivered by airport operations, detailed to such extend that each flight is allocated to certain stand, gate and luggage carousel Detailed information concerning connecting passengers only for the flag carrier Flight schedule analyses based on flight distance from/to airport; as one of the scenarios will reflect an intermodal airport terminal, shifting possibly all short haul flights to a high-speed train services

16 5. Traffic data Simulation input (5) Same as for airport layout scenarios we will have three different traffic data scenarios Scenario B1: 26% passengers flying less than 800 km s (as in case today) Scenario B2: 10% intermodal passenger (example of Frankfurt Airport, intermodal airport) Scenario B3: 26% intermodal passengers (al short-haul flights shift to HST) Airport s traffic distribution by segments is the following: International Movements: 82% Domestic Movements: 18% International Passengers: 78% Domestic Passengers: 22%

17 Simulation scenarios Base scenario Base Sample airport as it is known today, without a direct connection to high - speed rail station and with 26% of traffic less than 800 km s Air/Rail Scenario 10% intermodal PAX AiRail10 Sample airport with high-speed train connection and 10% of intermodal passenger flow Air/Rail Scenario 26% intermodal PAX AiRail26 Sample airport with high-speed train connection and 26% of intermodal passenger flow Air/Rail Check-in Scenario 10% intermodal PAX ARCheck-in10 Sample airport with high-speed train connection and check-in facilities at the railway station, with 10% of intermodal passenger flow Air/Rail Check-in Scenario 26% intermodal PAX ARCheck-in26 Sample airport with high-speed train connection and check-in facilities at the railway station, with 26% of intermodal passenger flow

18

19 Simulation scenarios

20 Simulation scenarios

21 Simulation scenarios

22 Simulation scenarios

23 Simulation scenarios

24 Simulation scenarios

25 Simulation scenarios

26 Future work & Publications Detect system errors and debugging Flight schedule input Running simulation scenarios Simulation results analyses - average behaviour & extreme occurrences 1. Master Thesis, EUROCONTROL EEC Newsletter, April The 5th EUROPE/US ATM R&D Seminar, Budapest (HU), June Seminar on New Methods in Civil Aviation, Brno (CR), November The World s Congress Aviation in the 21st Century, Kiev (UK), September The19th Conference of Traffic and Transportation Sciences, Dresden (GE), Sept Dissertation minimum for the University of Zilina (SK), April ICAS 2004 Yokohama (JP), August ICRAT 2004, Zilina (SK), November COST340, Paris (FR), June Innovative Research Activity Report 2004, 2005

27 Thank you for your attention