Infrastructure constraints in Europe

Transcription

1 LOT Polish Airlines Keynote CEO Presentation 5-6 June, 2018 Infrastructure constraints in Europe Rafał Milczarski CEO of LOT Polish Airlines Sydney, June 06, 2018

2 THE BUSSIEST EUROPEAN AIRPORTS DO NOT ACHIEVE ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT GROWTHS Scarce infrastructure capacity in Europe. The demand increases faster than the supply. Contstraints of current infrastructure development Adaptation to growth is expensive (i.e. 3rd runway in LHR) and not always possible (AMS) Huge reconstruction costs of key European hubs causes industry loosing it s competitiveness TOP 10 European airports Airport Code 2017 Passengers [million] vs Scheduled departures ['000] vs London Heathrow LHR 78,0 3,0% 238,1 0,3% Paris CDG CDG 69,5 5,4% 221,3 0,7% Amsterdam AMS 68,5 7,7% 233,1 4,9% Frankfurt FRA 64,5 6,1% 223,4 2,7% Istanbul Atatürk IST 63,7 6,0% 214,5-3,1% Madrid MAD 53,4 5,9% 180,1 1,9% Barcelona BCN 47,3 7,1% 151,2 5,3% London Gatwick LGW 45,6 5,7% 139,7 2,3% Munich MUC 44,6 5,5% 190,9 2,4% Rome Fiumicino FCO 41,3-1,1% 146,0-4,9% Sum of Top10 European 576,3 5,2% 1938,2 1,2% TOTAL Europe 2133,8 8,3% 8309,4 3,6% Sources: anna.aero, Diio MI

3 CAPACITY WILL BE AMONG THE BIGGEST CHALLENGES Ø 204 slot coordinated airports globally. (43% of global air traffic 1). Over a half of the coordinated airports are located in Europe. Ø +50% increase in fligths expected by 2035 compared to Airports capacity to increase by only +17% (Source Eurocontrol, 2013) Ø Planned capacity dropped by more than half after the 2008 economic crisis. 20 airports will be running at capacity (compared to only 3 in 2012), resulting increased delays. Ø Eurocontrol estimates that 12% of demand will be unaccommodated, meaning up to 120 million passengers unable to fly or 1.9 million flights not operated 1) Worldwide Slot Guidelines (WSG) - Annex ) Challenges of Growth 2013, Eurocontrol

4 AIRSPACE CONGESTION ASYMMETRIC FLOW DISTRIBUTION 5-6 June, 2018 All Europe s main hubs are located in old 15 EU countries Sky over CEE has potential to accomodate growing traffic Central & Eastern European (CEE) countries with it s 180 mln inhabitants represents growing customer s base CEE deserves a transportation hub which will take the load off the existing Western hub system. Greenfield project may match best developments in it s class Sources: Fligthradar24.com

5 THE FUTURE GROWTH IN EUROPE WILL STAY IN CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES Central & Eastern Europe focus of LOT activities Sources: eurocontrol.int

6 THE FUTURE GROWTH IN EUROPE WILL STAY IN CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES Sources: eurocontrol.int

7 THE FUTURE GROWTH IN EUROPE WILL STAY IN CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES Significant increase of CEE s traffic over the last few years Propensity to fly in CEE considerably lower (1:3) than in WE, growing at a quicker pace. Annual average growth of movements exceeded +10% in 2017, compared to +3,6% of European average The major airports in the region keep the pace of the growth with the smaller ones Sources: anna.aero, Diio MI Passengers [million] Scheduled departures ['000] vs. vs. Airport Code London Heathrow LHR 78,0 3,0% 238,1 0,35% Paris CDG CDG 69,5 5,4% 221,3 0,66% Amsterdam AMS 68,5 7,7% 233,1 4,89% Frankfurt FRA 64,5 6,1% 223,4 2,73% Istanbul Atatürk IST 63,7 6,0% 214,5-3,11% Madrid MAD 53,4 5,9% 180,1 1,93% Barcelona BCN 47,3 7,1% 151,2 5,26% London Gatwick LGW 45,6 5,7% 139,7 2,31% Munich MUC 44,6 5,5% 190,9 2,39% Rome Fiumicino FCO 41,3-1,1% 146,0-4,88% Sum of Top10 European 576,3 5,2% 1938,2 1,21% TOTAL Europe 2133,8 8,3% 8309,4 3,63% Sum of Top5 CEE airports* 67,6 18,7% 270,2 10,95% CEE countries** excl. Russia 159,4 16,3% 633,3 11,11% CEE countries** 290,1 16,1% 1122,4 10,39% * Warsaw WAW, Prague PRG, Budapest BUD, Bucharest OTP, Kiev KBP ** 20 countries: Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine

8 NEW INVESTMENT IN THE PIPELINE Poland s SOLIDARITY AIRPORT Ø The concept of the Central Transport Hub (CTH) Solidarity Airport is in line with the objectives of the European Aviation Strategy. Ø A greenfield construction of high capacity, like CTH, will create new passenger experience based on new concepts and technologies Ø Crossroad of planned high speed railway links (East-West + North - South) Ø Easily accessible via existing highways (East-West + North-South highways crossings nearby) Ø Suitable for multiple parallel runways positioning and further long term development (up to 100 mln passengers annually)

9 LOCATION OF THE CENTRAL TRANSPORTATION HUB FOR CEE 5-6 June, 2018 Q Metro of 3.5 M inhabitants Metro of 1.2 M inhabitants

10 CONCLUSIONS 5-6 June, The capacity of current European airports is and will not be sufficient. Their development is subject to many restrictions, incl. but not limited to urban, environmental and social ones. 2. The market conditions support construction of new airport infrastructure in Central & Eastern Europe. 3. Central Transport Hub (CTH) Solidarity Airport is likely to be an important means to relaxing of the European constraints. 4. The potential changes in process of slot allocation aren t addressing the root of the problem i.e. lack of infrastructure. 5. Apart from airport infrastructure, airspace capacity requires urgent increase and/or restructuring they both have to be aligned.

11 THANK YOU