Housing Market Update U.S. and Southeast Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta February 24, 2011

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1 Brad Hunter Chief Economist/ National Director of Consulting (561) Housing Market Update U.S. and Southeast Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta February 24, 2011

2 There is no National Housing Market This measurement of the market covers 4.5 million lots in 48,000 subdivisions. In 41 markets in 19 states - About 65%-70% of all new metro-area home construction

3 180, , , , , ,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET DETACHED SF QUARTERLY STARTS & MOVE-INS 3 4Q10 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 Quarter Starts Quarter Move-Ins

4 NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET DETACHED SF HOUSING INVENTORY & MONTHS OF SUPPLY HISTORY 4 400, , , , , , ,000 50, Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 Finished Vacant Under Construction Housing MOS

5 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Detached SF Finished Vacant Inventory Annual % Change by Market 5 Atlanta Boise St t. George Chicago Salt Lake City Twin Cities Nashville Albuquerque Tampa Naples-Ft.Myers Charlotte Northern California Central California Austin Triad Phoenix South Florida Indianapolis Las Vegas Orlando Raleigh Reno Houston Northern Virginia Sarasota-Bradenton Southern California Dallas-Ft. Worth San Diego Denver Jacksonville San Antonio Rio Grande Valley Suburban Maryland -20.0% -30.0% -40.0%

6 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Detached SF Finished Vacant Inventory Quarterly (3Q-4Q) % Change by Market 6 Phoenix St. George Salt Lake City Boise Orlando Central California Atlanta Indianapolis Charlotte Albuquerque Twin Cities Houston Sarasota-Bradenton Austin San Diego Triad Nashville Chicago Reno Southern California Dallas-Ft. Worth Raleigh Tampa South Florida Northern California Las Vegas Jacksonville Suburban Maryland San Antonio Rio Grande Valley Denver Northern Virginia Naples-Ft.Myers -10.0% -15.0%

7 How Much Excess Is Left??

8 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Detached SF "Excess" Finished Vacant Inventory by Oversupplied Market Excess FV Inventory Months to Reach Equilibrium Months 197 Months 161 Months Reno Jacksonville South San Atlantaa Rio Grande Valley Sarasota-Bradentonn Florida Triad Orlando Phoenix Charlotte Chicago Southern Californiaa Raleigh Diego

9 NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET DETACHED SF VACANT DEVELOPED LOT INVENTORY & MONTHS OF SUPPLY ,200, ,000, , , , , Q10 3Q10 2Q10 1Q10 4Q09 3Q09 2Q09 1Q09 4Q08 3Q08 2Q08 1Q08 4Q07 3Q07 2Q07 1Q07 4Q06 3Q06 2Q06 1Q06 4Q05 3Q05 2Q05 1Q05 4Q04 3Q04 2Q04 1Q04 4Q03 VDL Inventory VDL MOS

10 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Detached SF Vacant Developed Lot Inventory Quarterly (3Q-4Q) % Change by Market Dall las-ft. Worth Las Vegas Naples-Ft.Myers Denver Nashville Austin Central California Tampa Raleigh Salt Lake City San Antonio Boise Rio Grande Valley Orlando Albuquerque Suburban Maryland Triad Reno Phoenix Charlotte St. George Northern California Atlanta Chicago South Florida Sarasota-Bradenton Jacksonville Northern Virginia Twin Cities Houston Southern California San Diego Indianapolis -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% -5.0% 10

11 5.0% 0.0% NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Detached SF Vacant Developed Lot Inventory Annual % Change by Market 11 Dallas-Ft. Worth San Antonio Las Vegas Houston Austin San Diego Denver Salt Lake City Raleigh Central California Indianapolis Albuquerque Northern Virginia Twin Cities Phoenix St. George Rio Grande Valley Nashville Triad Orlando Charlotte Jacksonville Naples-Ft..Myers Northern California Suburban Maryland Chicago Boise South Florida Atlanta Southern California Tampa Sarasota-Bradenton Reno -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0%

12 NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Detached SF Future Lot Inventory by Market 12 Rio Grande Valley Triad Nashville Reno Indianapolis Twin Cities Charlotte St. George Naples-Ft.Myers Raleigh San Diego Las Vegas Houston Boise Salt Lake City Sarasota-Bradenton Northern Virginia Southern Maryland Albuquerque South Florida San Antonio Atlanta Tampa Austin Chicago Dallas-Ft. Worth Northern California Central California Jacksonville Denver Southern California Orlando Phoenix 5,629,946 Total Lots - 200, , , ,000 1,000,000 1,200,000

13 6, ,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Detached SF Finished Vacant Inventory & Months of Supply by Market Finished Vacant Inventory Finished Vacant Inv. MOS Northern Virgi inia Southern Maryland Twin Cities Salt Lake City Indianapolis Northern California St. George San Antonio Tampa Las Vegas Dallas-Ft. Worth Nashville Austin Denver Houston Boise San Diego Central California Naples-Ft.Myers Albuquerque Jacksonville Rio Grande Valley Sarasota-Bradenton Phoenix Charlotte Raleigh Southern California Orlando Chicago Triad South Florida Reno Atlanta

14 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Detached SF Under Construction & Finished Vacant Inventory by Market Under Construction Finished Vacant Housing MOS Reno South Florida Chi icago Southern California Atlanta San Diego Triad Sarasota-Brade enton Naples-Ft.Myers Rio Grande Valley Orlando Denver Charlotte Albuquerque Raleigh Central California Phoenix Northern California Jacksonville Tampa Nashville Las Vegas St. George Salt Lake City Houston Dallas-Ft. Worth Boise Austin San Antonio Indianapolis Southern Maryland Twin Cities Northern Virginia

15 140, , ,000 80, ,000 40,000 20,000 - NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Detached SF Vacant Developed Lot Inventory by Market VDL Inventory VDL MOS Atlanta Sarasota-Bradenton Chicago Reno South Florida Jacksonville St. George Albuquerque Rio Grande Valley Orlando Phoenix Triad Tampa Naples-Ft.Myers Charlotte Boise Twin Cities Central California Salt Lake City Denver Northern California Las Vegas Nashville Southern California Raleigh Indianapolis Northern Virginia Dallas-Ft. Worth Austin Houston San Diego San Antonio Southern Maryland

16 There is no National housing market. And even within Markets there are huge variations

17 Atlanta Developed Lot Supply by County Gwinnett has the largest number of VDL, At 13,978 (detached), but it also Has relatively strong demand.

18 Atlanta %ch in VDL by County

19 Atlanta %ch Finished/Vacant by County Gwinnett is reducing Finished inventory, and Carroll County, Which had the worst VDL MOS is bringing down inventories fast. Carroll only has 48 F/V, comp with 407 back in 07.

20 Regional Housing Market Matrix ANNUAL STARTS DECLINE VS 2007 ANNUA L STARTS GROWTH LAST 4 QTRS ANNUA L CLOSINGS DECLINE VS 2007 ANNUA L CLOSINGS GROWTH LAST 4 QTRS MOS TOTAL INVENTORY STARTS MOS VDL INV UNDER $300k FV INV RATIO MOS FV INV TOTAL SCORE MARKET ARIZONA - Phoenix ARIZONA - Prescott ARIZONA - Tucson CALIFORNIA - Central Coast CALIFORNIA - Central Valley CALIFORNIA - Inland Empire CALIFORNIA - LA Coastal CALIFORNIA - Sacramento CALIFORNIA - San Diego CALIFORNIA - San Francisco Bay Area COLORADO - Colorado Springs COLORADO - Denver COLORADO - Northern Colorado FLORIDA - Central Florida FLORIDA - Jacksonville FLORIDA - Naples-Ft. Myers FLORIDA - Sarasota-Bradenton FLORIDA - South Florida FLORIDA - Tampa GEORGIA - ATLANTA IDAHO - Boise ILLINOIS - Chicago ILLINOIS - Rockford ILLINOIS - Southern Wisconsin INDIANA - Indianapolis MINNESOTA - Twin Cities NEVADA - Las Vegas NEVADA - Reno NEW MEXICO - Albuquerque NEW MEXICO - Santa Fe NORTH CAROLINA - Charlotte NORTH CAROLINA - NC-Triad NORTH CAROLINA - Raleigh - Durham TENNESSEE - Nashville TEXAS - AUSTIN TEXAS - Dallas/Ft. Worth TEXAS - Houston TEXAS - Rio Grande Valley TEXAS - San Antonio UTAH - Salt Lake City UTAH - St. George-Mesquite WASH DC - Baltimore WASH DC - Northern Virginia WASH DC - Suburban Maryland

21 Regional Housing Market Matrix ANNUAL ANNUAL ANNUAL STARTS CLOSINGS CLOSINGS ANNUAL STARTS GROWTH DECLINE VS GROWTH DECLINE VS 2007 LAST 4 QTRS 2007 LAST 4 QTRS MOS TOTAL INVENTORY STARTS MOS VDL INV UNDER $300k FV INV RATIO MOS FV INV TOTAL SCORE MARKET ARIZONA - Phoenix ARIZONA - Prescott ARIZONA - Tucson CALIFORNIA - Central Coast CALIFORNIA - Central Valley CALIFORNIA - Inland Empire CALIFORNIA - LA Coastal CALIFORNIA - Sacramento CALIFORNIA - San Diego CALIFORNIA - San Francisco Bay Area COLORADO - Colorado Springs COLORADO - Denver COLORADO - Northern Colorado FLORIDA - Central Florida FLORIDA - Jacksonville FLORIDA - Naples-Ft. Myers FLORIDA - Sarasota-Bradenton FLORIDA - South Florida FLORIDA - Tampa GEORGIA - ATLANTA IDAHO - Boise ILLINOIS - Chicago ILLINOIS - Rockford ILLINOIS - Southern Wisconsin INDIANA - Indianapolis MINNESOTA - Twin Cities NEVADA - Las Vegas NEVADA - Reno NEW MEXICO - Albuquerque NEW MEXICO - Santa Fe NORTH CAROLINA - Charlotte NORTH CAROLINA - NC-Triad NORTH CAROLINA - Raleigh - Durham TENNESSEE - Nashville TEXAS - AUSTIN TEXAS - Dallas/Ft. Worth TEXAS - Houston TEXAS - Rio Grande Valley TEXAS - San Antonio UTAH - Salt Lake City UTAH - St. George-Mesquite WASH DC - Baltimore WASH DC - Northern Virginia WASH DC - Suburban Maryland

22 Regional Housing Market Matrix A NNUA L A NNUA L ANNUAL STARTS CLOSINGS CLOSINGS ANNUAL STARTS GROWTH DECLINE VS GROWTH DECLINE VS 2007 LAST 4 QTRS 2007 LAST 4 QTRS MOS TOTAL INVENTORY STARTS MOS VDL INV UNDER $300k FV INV RATIO MOS FV INV TOTAL SCORE MARKET ARIZONA - Phoenix ARIZONA - Prescott ARIZONA - Tucson CALIFORNIA - Central Coast CALIFORNIA - Central Valley CALIFORNIA - Inland Empire CALIFORNIA - LA Coastal CALIFORNIA - Sacramento CALIFORNIA - San Diego CALIFORNIA - San Francisco Bay Area COLORADO - Colorado Springs COLORADO - Denver COLORADO - Northern Colorado FLORIDA - Central Florida FLORIDA - Jacksonville FLORIDA - Naples-Ft. Myers FLORIDA - Sarasota-Bradenton FLORIDA - South Florida FLORIDA - Tampa GEORGIA - ATLANTA IDAHO - Boise ILLINOIS - Chicago ILLINOIS - Rockford ILLINOIS - Southern Wisconsin INDIANA - Indianapolis MINNESOTA - Twin Cities NEVADA - Las Vegas NEVADA - Reno NEW MEXICO - Albuquerque NEW MEXICO - Santa Fe NORTH CAROLINA - Charlotte NORTH CAROLINA - NC-Triad NORTH CAROLINA - Raleigh - Durham TENNESSEE - Nashville TEXAS - AUSTIN TEXAS - Dallas/Ft. Worth TEXAS - Houston TEXAS - Rio Grande Valley TEXAS - San Antonio UTAH - Salt Lake City UTAH - St. George-Mesquite WASH DC - Baltimore WASH DC - Northern Virginia WASH DC - Suburban Maryland

23 Regional Housing Market Matrix A NNUA L ANNUAL A NNUA L STARTS CLOSINGS CLOSINGS A NNUA L STARTS GROWTH DECLINE VS GROWTH DECLINE VS 2007 LAST 4 QTRS 2007 LAST 4 QTRS MOS TOTAL INVENTORY STARTS MOS VDL INV UNDER $300k FV INV RATIO MOS FV INV TOTAL SCORE MARKET ARIZONA - Phoenix ARIZONA - Prescott ARIZONA - Tucson CALIFORNIA - Central Coast CALIFORNIA - Central Valley CALIFORNIA - Inland Empire CALIFORNIA - LA Coastal CALIFORNIA - Sacramento CALIFORNIA - San Diego CALIFORNIA - San Francisco Bay Area COLORADO - Colorado Springs COLORADO - Denver COLORADO - Northern Colorado FLORIDA - Central Florida FLORIDA - Jacksonville FLORIDA - Naples-Ft. Myers FLORIDA - Sarasota-Bradenton FLORIDA - South Florida FLORIDA - Tampa GEORGIA - ATLANTA IDAHO - Boise ILLINOIS - Chicago ILLINOIS - Rockford ILLINOIS - Southern Wisconsin INDIANA - Indianapolis MINNESOTA - Twin Cities NEVADA - Las Vegas NEVADA - Reno NEW MEXICO - Albuquerque NEW MEXICO - Santa Fe NORTH CAROLINA - Charlotte NORTH CAROLINA - NC-Triad NORTH CAROLINA - Raleigh - Durham TENNESSEE - Nashville TEXAS - AUSTIN TEXAS - Dallas/Ft. Worth TEXAS - Houston TEXAS - Rio Grande Valley TEXAS - San Antonio UTAH - Salt Lake City UTAH - St. George-Mesquite WASH DC - Baltimore WASH DC - Northern Virginia WASH DC - Suburban Maryland GREEN=1-199 YELLOW= RED=

24 Atlanta Housing Market Matrix ANNUA L CLOSINGS DECLINE VS ANNUA L CLOSINGS GROWTH THIS A NNUA L STA RTS ANNUAL STARTS GROWTH THIS MOS TOTA L STARTS COUNTY DECLINE VS 2007 YEAR 2007 YEAR INVENTORY MOS VDL INV UNDER $300k FV INV RATIO MOS FV INV TOTAL SCORE Fulton (North) Cherokee Forsyth Gwinnett Cobb Dekalb Paulding Hall Clayton Douglas Fayette Fulton (South) Henry Rockdale Coweta Newton Jackson Walton Dawson Barrow Carroll Bartow

25 Atlanta Housing Market Matrix ANNUA L CLOSINGS DECLINE VS ANNUA L CLOSINGS GROWTH THIS A NNUA L STA RTS ANNUAL STARTS GROWTH THIS MOS TOTA L STARTS COUNTY DECLINE VS 2007 YEAR 2007 YEAR INVENTORY MOS VDL INV UNDER $300k FV INV RATIO MOS FV INV TOTAL SCORE Fulton (North) Cherokee Forsyth Gwinnett Cobb Dekalb Paulding Hall Clayton Douglas Fayette Fulton (South) Henry Rockdale Coweta Newton Jackson Walton Dawson Barrow Carroll Bartow

26 Atlanta Housing Market Matrix ANNUA L CLOSINGS DECLINE VS ANNUA L CLOSINGS GROWTH THIS ANNUAL STARTS ANNUAL STARTS GROWTH THIS MOS TOTA L STARTS COUNTY DECLINE VS 2007 YEAR 2007 YEAR INVENTORY MOS VDL INV UNDER $300k FV INV RATIO MOS FV INV TOTAL SCORE Fulton (North) Cherokee Forsyth Gwinnett Cobb Dekalb Paulding Hall Clayton Douglas Fayette Fulton (South) Henry Rockdale Coweta Newton Jackson Walton Dawson Barrow Carroll Bartow

27 Atlanta Housing Market Matrix ANNUA L CLOSINGS DECLINE VS ANNUA L CLOSINGS GROWTH THIS ANNUAL STARTS ANNUAL STARTS GROWTH THIS MOS TOTA L STARTS COUNTY DECLINE VS 2007 YEAR 2007 YEAR INVENTORY MOS VDL INV UNDER $300k FV INV RATIO MOS FV INV TOTAL SCORE Fulton (North) Cherokee Forsyth Gwinnett Cobb Dekalb Paulding Hall Clayton Douglas Fayette Fulton (South) Henry Rockdale Coweta Newton Jackson Walton Dawson Barrow Carroll Bartow

28 Atlanta SubMarket Matrix Gwinnett This is a list of all submarkets (cities) in the Atlanta market. This analysis will address the Market conditions in these Dekalb Counties: Fulton (North) Cherokee Forsyth Gwinnett Cobb ANNUAL A NNUA L ANNUAL STARTS CLOSINGS CLOSINGS A NNUA L STA RTS GROWTH DECLINE VS GROWTH MOS TOTA L STARTS SUBMARKET DECLINE VS 2007 LAST 4 QTRS 2007 LAST 4 QTRS INVENTORY MOS VDL INV UNDER $300k FV INV RATIO MOS FV INV TOTAL SCORE Fulton (North) - Alpharetta Fulton (North) - Atlanta Fulton (North) - Buckhead Fulton (North) - Roswell Fulton (North) - Sandy Springs Cherokee - Canton Cherokee - North Cherokee Cherokee - Woodstock Forsyth - East Forsyth Forsyth - South Forsyth Forsyth - West Forsyth Gwinnett - Buford Gwinnett - Dacula Gwinnett - Duluth Gwinnett - Grayson Gwinnett - Lawrenceville Gwinnett - Lilburn Gwinnett - Loganville Gwinnett - Norcross Gwinnett - Snellville Gwinnett - Stone Mountain Gwinnett - Suwanee Cobb - Acworth Cobb - Austell Cobb - Kennesaw Cobb - Marietta Cobb - Powder Springs Cobb - Smyrna Dekalb - Brookhaven Dekalb - Chamblee Dekalb - Lithonia Dekalb - North Decatur Dekalb - South Decatur Dekalb - South Dekalb Dekalb - Stone Mountain Paulding - Dallas Paulding - Hiram Hall - E Hall Hall - Flowery Branch Hall - Oakwood Hall - South Hall Hall - West Hall Clayton - Ellenwood Clayton - Jonesboro Clayton - Morrow Clayton - Riverdale Douglas - Douglasville Douglas - Lithia Springs Douglas - West Douglas Fayette - Fayetteville Fayette - Peachtree City Fulton (South) - Fairburn Fulton (South) - Palmetto Fulton (South) - South Atlanta Henry - Hampton Henry - Locust Grove Henry - McDonough Henry - Stockbridge Rockdale - Conyers Rockdale - North Rockdale Coweta - East Newnan Coweta - Grantville Coweta - Moreland Coweta - NE Coweta Coweta - Newnan Coweta - Senoia Coweta - Sharpsburg Newton - Covington Newton - E Newton Newton - West Newton Jackson - Braselton Jackson - Commerce Jackson - Hoschton Jackson - Jefferson Jackson - Nicholson Jackson - Pendergrass Jackson - SE Jackson Walton - Loganville Walton - Monroe Walton - Social Circle Dawson - Dawsonville Barrow - Bethlehem Barrow - N Barrow Barrow - Statham Carroll - Carrollton Carroll - Temple Carroll - Villa Rica Carroll - Whitesburg Bartow - Adairsville Bartow - Cartersville Spalding - Griffin

29 ANNUAL STARTS DECLINE VS 2007 A NNUA L STARTS GROWTH LAST 4 QTRS ANNUAL CLOSINGS DECLINE VS 2007 ANNUAL CLOSINGS GROWTH LAST 4 QTRS MOS TOTAL INVENTORY STARTS UNDER $300k FV INV RATIO MOS FV INV TOTAL SCORE SUBMARKET MOS VDL INV Fulton (North) - Alpharetta Fulton (North) - Atlanta Fulton (North) - Buckhead Fulton (North) - Roswell Fulton (North) - Sandy Springs Cherokee - Canton Cherokee - North Cherokee Cherokee - Woodstock Forsyth - East Forsyth Forsyth - South Forsyth Forsyth - West Forsyth Gwinnett - Buford Gwinnett - Dacula Gwinnett - Duluth Gwinnett - Grayson Gwinnett - Lawrenceville Gwinnett - Lilburn Gwinnett - Loganville Gwinnett - Norcross Gwinnett - Snellville Gwinnett - Stone Mountain Gwinnett - Suwanee Cobb - Acworth Cobb - Austell Cobb - Kennesaw Cobb - Marietta Cobb - Powder Springs Cobb - Smyrna Dekalb - Brookhaven Dekalb - Chamblee Dekalb - Lithonia Dekalb - North Decatur Dekalb - South Decatur Dekalb - South Dekalb Copyright 5 90 Metrostudy Dekalb - Stone Mountain Paulding - Dallas

30 ANNUAL STARTS DECLINE VS 2007 ANNUAL STARTS GROWTH LAST 4 QTRS ANNUAL CLOSINGS DECLINE VS 2007 A NNUA L CLOSINGS GROWTH LAST 4 QTRS MOS TOTAL INVENTORY STARTS UNDER $300k FV INV RATIO MOS FV INV TOTAL SCORE SUBMARKET MOS VDL INV Fulton (North) - Alpharetta Fulton (North) - Atlanta Fulton (North) - Buckhead Fulton (North) - Roswell Fulton (North) - Sandy Springs Cherokee - Canton Cherokee - North Cherokee Cherokee - Woodstock Forsyth - East Forsyth Forsyth - South Forsyth Forsyth - West Forsyth Gwinnett - Buford Gwinnett - Dacula Gwinnett - Duluth Gwinnett - Grayson Gwinnett - Lawrenceville Gwinnett - Lilburn Gwinnett - Loganville Gwinnett - Norcross Gwinnett - Snellville Gwinnett - Stone Mountain Gwinnett - Suwanee Cobb - Acworth Cobb - Austell Cobb - Kennesaw Cobb - Marietta Cobb - Powder Springs Cobb - Smyrna Dekalb - Brookhaven Dekalb - Chamblee Dekalb - Lithonia Dekalb - North Decatur Dekalb - South Decatur Dekalb - South Dekalb Copyright 5 90 Metrostudy Dekalb - Stone Mountain Paulding - Dallas

31 A NNUA L STARTS DECLINE VS 2007 A NNUA L STARTS GROWTH LAST 4 QTRS ANNUAL CLOSINGS DECLINE VS 2007 A NNUA L CLOSINGS GROWTH LAST 4 QTRS MOS TOTA L INVENTORY STARTS UNDER $300k FV INV RATIO MOS FV INV TOTAL SCORE SUBMARKET MOS VDL INV Fulton (North) - Alpharetta Fulton (North) - Atlanta Fulton (North) - Buckhead Fulton (North) - Roswell Fulton (North) - Sandy Springs Cherokee - Canton Cherokee - North Cherokee Cherokee - Woodstock Forsyth - East Forsyth Forsyth - South Forsyth Forsyth - West Forsyth Gwinnett - Buford Gwinnett - Dacula Gwinnett - Duluth Gwinnett - Grayson Gwinnett - Lawrenceville Gwinnett - Lilburn Gwinnett - Loganville Gwinnett - Norcross Gwinnett - Snellville Gwinnett - Stone Mountain Gwinnett - Suwanee Cobb - Acworth Cobb - Austell Cobb - Kennesaw Cobb - Marietta Cobb - Powder Springs Cobb - Smyrna Dekalb - Brookhaven Dekalb - Chamblee Dekalb - Lithonia Dekalb - North Decatur Dekalb - South Decatur Dekalb - South Dekalb Copyright 5 90 Metrostudy Dekalb - Stone Mountain Paulding Dallas

32 A Case Study: South Florida

33 Boynton/Delray 4-mi. Radius Detached

34 Top communities in this radius: Valencia Reserve 280 Canyon Springs 98 Greystone 58 Equus 46 Briella 40 GL Homes 513 Centerline Homes 48 DR D.R. Horton 19 K. Hovnanian 15 Ansca Homes 11 Boynton/Delray 4-mile Radius Detached active

35 Canyons 4-mi. Radius Quarterly Starts v. Move-Ins of Detached Homes Q10 starts: 112 4Q10 move-ins: Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 Q starts t Q move-ins

36 Canyons 4-mi. Radius Detached - Units Under Construction v. Finished Vacant Units 1, Q10 fin/vac 113 fin/vac M-O-S 2.4 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 U/C Fin Vac

37 Palm Beach County Rebirths and Repositionings Equus/Diamond Collection o - 65' - bought by GL Homes New Model Old Model 3,011 sf $439,900 2,808 sf $787,835 4,064 sf $510,900 4,415 sf $1,173,990 Equus/Platinum Collection - 100' - bought by GL Homes New Model Old Model 3,714 sf $532,900 3,759 sf $931,990 5,772 sf $696,900 6,700 sf $1,395,000 Plus the Tousa Assets

38 Dade Repositionings and Rebirths Enclave at Old Cutler bought by Lennar 1Q10 started building summer 10 - (as of 4Q 39 occ) New Model Old Model 1,671 sf $209,990 1,801 sf $299,990 3,120 sqft $299, ,929 sf $499, Isles at Oasis/Antillean Isles bought by DR Horton 4Q09 - (as of 4Q 30 occ) New Model Old Model 1,383 sf $174,990 1,664 sf $299,990 2,281 sf $219,990 2,613 sf $389,990

39 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Miami-Dade Foreclosure Filings and Certificates of Title Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 filings certs

40 Naples/Ft. Myers

41 Lee Quarterly Starts v. Move-Ins of Detached Homes 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 4Q10 starts 146 4Q10 move-ins Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 Q starts t Q move-ins

42 2500 2,500 Lee Detached - Units Under Construction v. Finished Vacant Units 3,000 4Q10 fin/vac 171 fin/vac M-O-S 2.3 2,000 1,500 1, Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09 4Q10 U/C Fin Vac

43 1, Detached Starts Quarter 4Q10 Annual 4Q10 Miami-Dade Broward Palm Beach Martin St. Lucie Indiann River Collier Lee

44 Detached Finished Vacant Units Q Q Miami-Dade Broward Palm Beach Martin St. Lucie Indian River Collier Lee

45 Detached Finished Vacant M-O-S Q10 4 4Q09 Miami-Dade Broward Palm Beach Indian Martin St. Lucie River Collier Lee

46 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Detached VDL 4Q10 4Q09 Miami-Dade Broward Palm Beach Martin St. Lucie Indian River Collier Lee

47 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Lee County Mortgage Foreclosure Filings versus Certificates of Title (Banks only) Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Filings by Banks Certs into Banks

48 SOUTH ATLANTIC MEDIAN SALES PRICE ANALYSIS Pi Price Change Hit History (10Y) Yr) $290,000 $270,000 Raleigh - Durham $250,000 $230,000 ATLANTA $210,000 Charlotte $190,000 The Triad $170,000 $150, Q01 4Q01 3Q02 2Q03 1Q04 4Q04 3Q05 2Q06 1Q07 4Q07 3Q08 2Q09 1Q10 4Q10

49 $460,000 $440,000 $420,000 $400,000 $380,000 $360,000 $340,000 $320,000 $300,000 $280, $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140, FLORIDA MEDIAN SALES PRICE ANALYSIS Pi Price Change Hit History (10Y) Yr) 1Q01 4Q01 3Q02 2Q03 1Q04 4Q04 3Q05 2Q06 1Q07 4Q07 3Q08 2Q09 1Q10 4Q10 South Florida NAPLES - FT. MYERS SARASOTA- BRADENTON Central Florida JACKSONVILLE TAMPA

50 $590,000 WASHINGTON DC MEDIAN SALES PRICE ANALYSIS Pi Price Change Hit History (10Y) Yr) $570,000 $550,000 $530,000 $510, $490,000 $470,000 $450,000 $430,000 $410,000 $390,000 Suburban Maryland Northern Virginia $370, Q01 4Q01 3Q02 2Q03 1Q04 4Q04 3Q05 2Q06 1Q07 4Q07 3Q08 2Q09 1Q10 4Q10

51 ALL MARKETS MEDIAN SALES PRICE ANALYSIS Pi Price Change Hit History (10Y) Yr) $800,000 San Diego Suburban Maryland Northern Virginia Northern California $700,000 South Florida Southern California Twin Cities NAPLES - FT. MYERS $600,000 Chicago Denver St. George-Mesquite Salt Lake City Detached $500,000 Raleigh - Durham SARASOTA-BRADENTON Central California $400,000 Reno ATLANTA Nashville Charlotte $300,000 Phoenix-Tucson Las Vegas Indianapolis Dallas/Ft. W orth $200,000 HOUSTON AUSTIN JACKSONVILLE Central Florida $100,000 TAMPA The Triad SAN ANTONIO $- Boise Rio Grande Valley 1Q01 4Q01 3Q02 2Q03 1Q04 4Q04 3Q05 2Q06 1Q07 4Q07 3Q08 2Q09 1Q10 4Q10

52 Miami Condos

53 South Florida/Miami Condos Absorbing b surprisingly s fast but there are still thousands left unclosed/empty There are 15,609 condo units in inventory in South Florida (down from 38,000 at the peak in 1Q07) In Miami-Dade, there are 8,504 new condos that are still empty, and many of those that have become occupied are rented.

54

55 Foreclosure Pipeline (National) Beyond the cases already filed, there are 5 million seriously delinquent mortgages, and 4 million more that have 50% or more negative equity. 9 to 10 million foreclosures in all were projected from (2 million already completed, and 1.7 million pending cases). It appears that we re almost half way through.

56 Brad Hunter Chief Economist/ National Director of Consulting (561) THANK YOU!!

57 About the Presenter Brad Hunter, Chief Economist/National Director of Consulting Brad Hunter spearheads Metrostudy s current work with the banks, the investment community and national developer/builder clients. A large part of his work lately has been with private equity funds, hedge funds, and pension fund advisors. He supervises the bulk of the company s multi-market market studies, and has orchestrated hundreds of site-specific or area-specific housing market studies over the past twenty-plus years. Metrostudy is the nation s premier advisor on local and regional housing market conditions. With 25 years worth of experience in real estate analysis and local market economic forecasting, Mr. Hunter is a Full Member of the Urban Land Institute, has authored numerous articles and book chapters for ULI, including Market Profiles, and serves on the Housing Market Forecast Panel for the Housing Market Report. He is regularly cited in local and national journals, and has recently been featured in the Wall Street Journal and on Bloomberg News (including Bloomberg s On the Money and On the Economy radio shows). He graduated in 1985 from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania with a degree in economics and has been a guest lecturer at Harvard University. Hunter is a speaker at conferences on real estate opportunities and investing, as well as at ULI conferences, and is frequently called upon by key regulatory agencies of the U.S. government for his insights on the housing sector. Hunter has tracked and forecast housing markets and demographic/economic trends at the local level for 25 years.