De Reuzen en de Consequenties. Dirk Visser. Dynamar B.V.

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1 De Reuzen en de Consequenties Dirk Visser Senior Shipping Consultant Managing Editor DynaLiners Dynamar B.V. 1

2 Agenda De Reuzen en de Consequenties Grotere schepen, ULCS, wrom? ULCS varend, besteld, optie, misschien, gewenst, gerucht ULCS per reder, per haven, per dienst ULCS, impact, alternatieven 2

3 @ DYNAMAR B.V. Since 1981 Credit Risk Assessment Credit Reports, Constant Monitoring, Executive Reports Marine Intelligence Marine Investigation, Vessel Tracking Consultancy Liner, Container, Bulk, Ports & Terminals Shipping Publications DynaLiners, MMM, Container Trade Studies, Special Reports 3

4 ULCS WAAROM? Kosten beheersen en drukken Jaloezie De concurrent z n verlies niet gunnen! 4

5 Bunkers Bunker prices Ø Growth Bunker pri ces 8% year Rotterdam Cst 380 prices (USD/mt) Year Average Increase Lowest Highest % % % % % % % % % % %

6 ULCS sailing & on order Delivery '06/' Total ULCS Share ships Share TEU >10, % 15% >11, % 5% >12, % 9% >13, % 41% >14, % 14% >15, % 3% >16, % 3% >18, % 10% Ships % 100% TEU 875, , , , , ,000 3,613, % 100% 6

7 ULCS options What Carrier/NOOwner Ships Ø TEU TEU Option Maersk Line 10 18, ,000 Option China Shipping 4 10,000 40,000 Option 1 Zodiac 2 16,000 32,000 Option 2 Zodiac 4 16,000 64,000 Intention Zodiac 4 13,000 52,000 Intention Seaspan 10 14, ,000 Intention Seaspan 18 18, ,000 Intention Peter Döhle 8 10,000 80,000 Desire Yang Ming 10 16, ,000 Rumour Zodiac 4 16,000 64,000 All Total 74 15,400 1,136,000 7

8 ULCS sailing & on order Size categories ULCS Ø TEU Total TEU 10,000-10,999 TEU 54 10, ,500 11,000-11,999 TEU 16 11, ,100 12,000-12,999 TEU 25 12, ,100 13,000-13,999 TEU ,200 1,479,800 14,000-14,999 TEU 36 14, ,600 15,000-15,999 TEU 8 15, ,400 16,000-16,999 TEU 6 16,000 96,000 18,000-18,999 TEU 20 18, ,000 All categories ,000 3,613,400 8

9 ULCS sailing & on order Size categories ULCS Ø TEU Total TEU 10,000-10,999 TEU 54 10, ,500 11,000-11,999 TEU 16 11, ,100 12,000-12,999 TEU 25 12, ,100 13,000-13,999 TEU ,200 1,479,800 14,000-14,999 TEU 36 14, ,600 15,000-15,999 TEU 8 15, ,400 16,000-16,999 TEU 6 16,000 96,000 18,000-18,999 TEU 20 18, ,000 All categories ,000 3,613,400 Category ULCS Share ULCS Ø TEU TEU Share TEU <13,000 34% 95 11,000 29% 1,049,000 >13,000 66% ,100 71% 2,565,000 All 100% , % 3,613,000 9

10 ULCS options Ships Ships Draught to meters to meters meters LOA to meters to meters to meters to metres Ships Breadth Wide meters 17 boxes to 45.6 meters 18 boxes to 48.4 meters 19 boxes to 51.3 meters 20 boxes to 56.4 meters 22 boxes meters 23/24 box 10

11 ULCS carriers Rank Rank Carrier ULCS Ø TEU TEU 7 5 APL 15 11, , China Shipping 16 12, , CMA CGM 29 12, , Coscon 24 12, , Evergreen (sub from ZIM) 2 10,100 20, Hanjin 19 11, , Hapag-Lloyd 10 13, , Hyundai 10 13, , Maersk Line 47 15, , MOL (sub from APL) 5 14,000 70, MSC 56 13, , NYK (sub from OOCL) 4 13,200 52, OOCL 6 13,200 79, UASC 9 13, , ZIM 15 11, , Non operating owners 10 12, ,800 Grand total ULCS ,000 3,613,400 11

12 ULCS carriers Carrier Size categories Ships Ø TEU Total TEU APL Total 15 11, ,500 - size category 10,000-10,999 TEU 10 10, ,500 - size category 14,000-14,999 TEU 5 14,000 70,000 China Shipping Total 16 12, ,600 - size category 10,000-10,999 TEU 8 10,000 80,000 - size category 14,000-14,999 TEU 8 14, ,600 CMA CGM Total 29 12, ,600 - size categories 10,000-10,999 TEU 4 11,000 43,800 11,000-11,999 TEU 12 11, ,500 12,000-12,999 TEU 2 12,600 25,100 13,000-13,999 TEU 5 13,800 69,200 16,000-16,999 TEU 6 16,000 96,000 Coscon Total 24 12, ,900 - size categories 10,000-10,999 TEU 8 10,000 80,300 13,000-13,999 TEU 16 13, ,500 Evergreen Line (ex ZIM) Total 2 10,100 20,100 - size category 10,000-10,999 TEU 2 10,100 20,100 Hanjin Total 19 11, ,200 - size categories 10,000-10,999 TEU 10 10, ,300 13,000-13,999 TEU 9 13, ,800 Hapag-Lloyd Total 10 13, ,000 - size category 13,000-13,999 TEU 10 13, ,000 Hyundai Total 10 13, ,000 - size category 13,000-13,999 TEU 10 13, ,000 12

13 ULCS carriers Carrier Size categories Ships Ø TEU Total TEU Maersk Line Total 47 15, ,600 - size categories 10,000-10,999 TEU 6 10,000 60,000 13,000-13,999 TEU 13 13, ,200 15,000-15,999 TEU 8 15, ,400 18,000-18,999 TEU 20 18, ,000 MOL Total 8 14, ,600 - size category 14,000-14,999 TEU 5 14,000 70,000 MSC Total 56 13, ,200 - size categories 11,000-11,999 TEU 4 11,700 46,600 12,000-12,999 TEU 4 12,600 50,200 13,000-13,999 TEU 30 13, ,400 14,000-14,999 TEU 18 14, ,000 NYK (ex OOCL) Total 4 13,200 52,800 - size category 13,000-13,999 TEU 4 13,200 52,800 OOCL Total 6 13,200 79,200 - size category 13,000-13,999 TEU 6 13,200 79,200 UASC Total 9 13, ,700 - size category 13,000-13,999 TEU 9 13, ,700 ZIM Total 15 11, ,300 - size categories 10,000-10,999 TEU 6 10,100 60,400 12,000-12,999 TEU 9 12, ,000 NOO Peter Döhle Schiffahrts Total 4 12,600 50,200 - size category 12,000-12,999 TEU 4 12,600 50,200 NOO ZODIAC Total 6 12,900 77,600 - size category 12,930-13,000 TEU 6 12,900 77,600 13

14 ULCS ports All ports Total calls First port Last port Double Port Stay Aarhus Antwerp Bremerhaven Dunkirk Felixstowe Gdansk Gothenburg Hamburg Le Havre Rotterdam Sines Southampton Thamesport Zeebrugge Totals Hours 14

15 ULCS ports Chinese Ports Region Other Far East Ports Country Dalian China, North Hong Kong Hong Kong Qingdao China, North Hakata Japan Tianjin China, North Port Kelang Malaysia Ningbo China, East Port Tanjung Pelepas Malaysia Shanghai China, East Singapore Singapore Guangzhou (Nansha) China, South Busan South Korea Shenzhen (Chiwan) China, South Kwangyang South Korea Shenzhen (Shekou) China, South Saigon (Cai Mep) Vietnam Shenzhen (Yantian) China, South Xiamen China, South 15

16 North Europe-Far East Trade North Europe/Mediterranean-Far East Trade Ø Growth Fa r Ea s t to Europe/Med 9.8% 13,539,000 5,323,000 Europe/Med to Fa r Ea s t 4.8% 5,569,000 3,494,000 Grand Total 8.0% 19,108,000 8,817,000 Imba l a nce TEU 7,970,000 1,829,000 Imbalance % 59% 34% Europe-Far East Highest Year Lowest Year 10-year growth Europe 21% % year growth to FE 14% % year growth total 16% %

17 Tegen medio 2015 ULCS Services 23 ULCS diensten per week Call-size: 6,000 tot 9,000 TEU 17

18 Alternative Routes Panama kanl Maximum toegestane scheeps afmetingen (meters) Lengte Breedte Diepgang Huidige sluizen Nieuwe sluizen

19 Panama Canal 19

20 In Conclusion Panama Canal Mainline: Europe-US EC-Panama-Far East Relay from Panama: Caribbean, Amazone, Central/South Am. WC, US WC 20

21 Stellingen Stellingen ULCS opgeleverd? Overeenkomstige capaciteit slopen! Reder failliet? Sink his ships! Schip = emotie: Grey the ships!! 21

22 De Reuzen en de Consequenties Dank U Dirk Visser Senior Shipping Consultant Managing Editor DynaLiners Dynamar B.V. 22

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