CONTAINER TRADE FLOWS AND TRADE LANE CHANGES

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1 CONTAINER TRADE FLOWS AND TRADE LANE CHANGES CargoSmart Roadshow Chicago - June 17 Jersey City June 19 Los Angeles, CA June 21

2 Agenda Introduction About BlueWater Reporting Changing Trade Lanes & Shipping Patterns The Mega Vessel Era Is Upon Us Changing Carrier Alliances/Emergence of the G6 Panama Canal Expansion/Suez Canal Growth Carrier Financials & Financing Q&A

3 Today s Market Overcapacity Endemic overcapacity likely to persist for through 2013 at least. Eastbound transpacific capacity rose around 7.5 percent in Westbound Asia Europe capacity rose around 3 percent in Weakened demand on traditional key trades Transpacific and Asia-Europe. No sizable trades where carriers can retreat to recapture revenue growth. 3

4 Mega-Vessel Era Carriers consistently seeking to improve their economy of scale. Persistent investment in larger ships to achieve lower per-slot operating costs. Means ports have to be able to handle larger vessels and more cargo than ever before. Larger vessels will likely make fewer calls, going to bus stop rotations.

5 Mega-Vessel Era Deliveries % 90% 26% 5% 5% 8% 9% 80% 15% 70% 60% 50% 14% 23% 29% 13% 27% Less than 4,800 4,800-7,019 8,000-9,700 10,000-12,600 40% 30% 20% 8% 22% 32% 12% 11% 13,000-14,000 16,000-16, % 0% 2% 5% Delivery Approx 1.7 mil TEU 3% 10% Delivery Approx 1.1 mil TEU 19% Delivery Approx 0.6 mil TEU Source: Clarkson Research Services 5

6 Changing Carrier Alliances The G6 and other new partnerships Green Alliance: Cosco, Hanjin, K Line, Yang Ming Evergreen Grand Alliance: Hapag Lloyd, OOCL, NYK New World Alliance: APL, Hyundai, MOL MSC CMA-CGM Maersk Line Circle sizes represent comparative sizes of the carriers by capacity. Bands represent new alliances/co-operations. 6

7 Carrier Alliance Share Alliance share includes Services operated by Alliances and services with an alliance carrier as a dominate operator, plus services operated by Maersk Line, MSC, CMA CGM and Evergreen Line 7

8 Changing Carrier Alliances Net Impacts More control by fewer decision makers. Greater choice for shippers. Potential for improved service levels remains TBD. Probably higher rates also TBD. 8

9 Managing Capacity Carriers are becoming more efficient at constraining capacity as new ships come on line. But can also quickly increase capacity if demand warrants. Asia to North America 4/1/2012 4/1/2013 Increase Vessel Count % Vessel TEUs 2,462,942 2,659,127 8% Average Vessel Size 5,675 5,460-4% Weekly Vessel Capacity 316, , % Weekly Available Capacity 297, , % Carriers exercise greater level over control over capacity and ultimately rate levels. 9

10 Managing Capacity Carriers are becoming more efficient at constraining capacity as new ships come on line. But can also quickly increase capacity if demand warrants. Asia to North America 6/1/2012 6/1/2013 Increase Vessel Count % Vessel TEUs 2,677,328 2,963,485 10% Average Vessel Size 5,365 5,868 9% Weekly Vessel Capacity 362, ,126 1% Weekly Available Capacity 342, ,543.31% Carriers exercise greater level over control over capacity and ultimately rate levels. 10

11 TEUs Managing Capacity with Skipped Sailings 80,000 70,000 China-Europe Skipped Sailings Dec-Feb. (Average Weekly TEU Capacity 380,000) 73,708 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 17,087 14,535 15,617 29,934 20,476 17,361 6,015 16,252 8,505 6,015 25,716 9,533 25,232 0 Week of Departure from primary port in China 11

12 TEUs Managing Capacity with Skipped Sailings 120,000 China-North America Skipped Sailings Dec-Feb (Average Weekly TEU Capacity 320,000) 110, ,000 80,000 73,209 60,000 40,000 20, ,715 16,718 28,054 5,015 4,305 Week of Primary Departure from China 12

13 Panama Canal Expansion Panama Canal expansion completion delayed until East Coast ports have been focusing on meeting a 2015 deadline to handle larger ships. ACP claims max vessel capacity through the Canal could be 14K TEU more likely 8-10K vessels will transit the canal. Canal tolls will likely increase significantly with unknown impact on shipper s rates. More likely extra capacity through the Canal will have largest impact on rates. 13

14 Challenges to Panama Routes Today Carriers claim Panama services are unattractive /unprofitable. Mega-vessels call the US West Coast not the East. Bunker fuel prices double while Panamax vessels are inefficient double whammy. Canal tolls have increased steadily 2X since

15 Panama/Suez Transit Comparison Norfolk via Suez Norfolk via Panama Nautical Miles Days Nautical Miles Days Singapore 9, ,692 No services Yantian 11, , Shanghai 12, , Busan 12,495 No services 10, Tokyo 12,902 No services 9, Showing fastest direct transit time 15

16 Growing Suez Share Asia to East Coast North American Trade 16

17 Where Are The Profits? Top publicly-traded lines lost nearly $6 billion in Only two in the black. The industry has lost money from operations over 5 years to In general carriers suffering from weak cash flow, high debt loads. Industry probably in the black for 2012, but results vary widely: In the black: CMA-CGM, Maersk, OOCL, China Shipping, etc. In the red: COSCO, APL, Zim, etc. 17

18 18

19 19

20 Altman Z-Score for Ocean Carriers Moderate Distress Severe Distress FQ FQ FQ FQ FQ Source: Capital IQ, analysis by AlixPartners 20

21 Carrier Financing Challenges German KG system is collapsing. Estimates 100 KGs are insolvent growing to 1,000s next year. Approximately 700 KG holding companies down to about 50. New investors entering the business with different requirements private equity. Asset traders looking at historically low prices for vessels. Divergent interests of investors and shippers will cause strain. 21

22 Q&A Thank you for your attention. I would like to take your questions now. For more information, you can contact me at: Hayes Howard Jim Blaeser Eric Johnson

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