Long Beach 27 February 2017

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1 Web: Long Beach 27 February 2017

2 Not too long ago, in a galaxy very close to us Alphaliner Page 1

3 Alphaliner Page 2

4 Alphaliner Page 3

5 Alphaliner Page 4

6 Alphaliner Page 5

7 Protracted arms race continue in the new Alliance era new containership deliveries continue at rapid pace Alphaliner Page 6

8 Focus on larger ships Scrapping and slippage not sufficient to curb fleet growth Over 80% of new capacity additions are of 8,000 teu and above Alphaliner Page 7

9 Before adjusting for scrapping (but incl. committed scrap sales) ALPHALINER are critical years Total capacity to grow by 4% per year on average in 2017 & 2018 This comes on top of current idle capacity of 7% Difficult to rebalance supply to match demand with significant focus on large ship segments Over 150 ships of 10,000-22,000 teu due to be delivered in next 2 years Fleet as at : Jan Dec 2018 Change Nominal TEU No. TEU No. TEU Over 2 years 18,000-21, , ,936, ,300-17, ,829, ,374, ,000-14,500 NPX 215 2,511, ,310, ,500-9, ,176, ,241, ,100-7, ,911, ,925, ,000-5, ,077, ,999, ,000-3, , , ,000-2, ,571, ,733, ,500-1, ,008, ,097, ,000-1, , , , , , ,323 9 Adjusted Total (after scrapping) 5,118 20,272,901 5,153 21,941,795 Annualised CAGR 4.0% Adjusted for scrapping Alphaliner Page 8

10 New deliveries and cascading still too many ships in next 2 years Alphaliner Page 9

11 The inter-alliance arms race in Deliveries < 3,000 3,000-6,000-10,000 10,000-18,000 TEU 6,000 TEU TEU TEU > 18,000 TEU Maersk MSC HMM M + H Total CMA CGM/APL COSCO Evergreen OOCL OCEAN Total Hapag-Lloyd/UASC K Line MOL NYK Yang Ming THE Total Hamburg Sud Zim PIL Wan Hai SM Line Independents Total Alphaliner Page 10

12 Arms race to continue into Deliveries < 3,000 3,000-6,000-10,000 10,000-18,000 TEU 6,000 TEU TEU TEU > 18,000 TEU Maersk MSC HMM M + H Total CMA CGM/APL COSCO Evergreen OOCL OCEAN Total Hapag-Lloyd/UASC K Line MOL NYK Yang Ming THE Total Hamburg Sud Zim PIL Wan Hai SM Line Independents Total Alphaliner Page 11

13 Arms race will only scale down in 2019 Projected deliveries in 2019 Projected deliveries in 2018 Projected deliveries in 2017 Current fleet - Feb 2017 Alphaliner Page 12

14 Destruction of Hanjin Shipping Hanjin Shipping could have been saved KDB/Korean Air failure to agree on emergency funding for $500 M would lead to losses of more than $5,000 M for all stakeholders Internal Korean conflict, not external threats, caused Hanjin s destruction Restructuring process poorly managed ego prevailed over common sense Implications of Hanjin Shipping failure - Risk of another major carrier bankruptcy is very low - Capacity restraint since Sep No Asia-Europe/Asia-USEC capacity added - Only capacity increase on Asia-USWC (HMM/2M) - Capacity to return with new Alliance launch in April 2017 Alphaliner Page 13

15 Capacity Increases Across the Board from April 2017 US West Coast and North Europe will see largest capacity increases Estimated weekly capacity in TEU (Jun 2017) 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80, , ,000 FE-WCNA FE-ECNA 14 weekly sailings (incl EX1 CMA CGM/APL only) (9 PSW/5 PNW) 5 weekly sailings (3 PSW/2 PNW) 11 weekly sailings (8 PSW/3 PNW) 8 weekly sailings (HMM/SM/Zim/PIL/WHL/Matson) (6 PSW/2 PNW) 7 weekly sailings (6 Panama/1 Suez) 5 weekly sailings (4 Panama/1 Suez) 5 weekly sailings (3 Panama/2 Suez) 2 weekly sailings (Zim) (1 Panama/1 Suez) FE-WCNA 4.9% (3.9%) FE-ECNA 2.1% (9.6%) FE-N. Eur FE-Med 6 weekly sailings 6 weekly sailings 5 weekly sailings No non-alliance service on FE-N.Eur route 5 weekly sailings 4 weekly sailings 3 weekly sailings 1 weekly sailing (Zim) OCEAN Alliance 2M THE Alliance Others Alphaliner FE-N. Eur 3.8% (7.4%) FE-Med 1.2% (5.5%) Estimated capacity increase 2017 vs 2016 (Peak Season Deployment) (vs current Feb 2017) Page 14

16 $/FEU ALPHALINER Transpacific Trade 2 year cycles Rate cycle expected to persist as long as over-capacity remains Larger capacity additions on FE-USWC & smaller capacity increase on FE-USEC expected in ,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, SCFI Shanghai to USWC & USEC 2010 Restocking led recovery Capacity & equipment shortage USEC USWC 2012 Capacity constraint Departure of the niche carriers 2014 USWC port labour Port congestion 2016 Hanjin bankruptcy Flight to safety Alphaliner Page 15

17 Peace is not upon us Predictions of market stability and sustainable rate increases still premature No signs that carriers have curbed market share ambitions High capacity utilisation since September could be reversed in coming months, with revamped Alliance network and capacity additions by independent carriers Actions of several non-alliance carriers eg HMM, SM Line and Zim could trigger rate instability Consolidation process still incomplete Japanese consolidation will take 18 months to complete Current alliance structure still unstable Low likelihood of another major carrier failure government support remains New capacity additions will add further pressure in low growth environment Alphaliner Page 16

18 PSW - 26 weekly services vs 25 PSW services in 2016 Estimated weekly capacity increase of 11.8% Estimated weekly capacity in 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80, ,000 FE-WCNA FE-ECNA FE-N. Eur FE-Med Estimated capacity subject to changes OCEAN Alliance 2M THE Alliance Others Alphaliner Page 17

19 PNW - 12 weekly services vs 13 PNW services in 2016 Estimated weekly capacity reduction of 8.0% FE-WCNA Estimated weekly capacity 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80, , FE-ECNA FE-N. Eur FE-Med OCEAN Alliance 2M THE Alliance Others Estimated capacity subject to changes Overall USWC (PSW+PNW) no. of weekly services remain unchanged 38 But capacity expected to increase by 4.9% Alphaliner Page 18

20 All-water USEC - 19 weekly services vs 21 Asia-USEC/USGC services in 2016 But average vessel size to increase from 6,700 teu to 7,600 teu Estimated weekly capacity increase of 2.1% Estimated weekly capacity in T 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80, ,000 FE-WCNA FE-ECNA FE-N. Eur FE-Med Estimated capacity subject to changes OCEAN Alliance 2M THE Alliance Others Alphaliner Page 19

21 End Please send any queries to Alphaliner clients include the following: - Shipping lines - Investment Banks - Ports Alphaliner

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