Innovating. Shipment Success Through Intelligent Visibility. Issue 54 April 2017

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1 Issue 54 April 217 Shipment Success Through Intelligent Visibility WELCOME to the April issue of CargoSmart s, a monthly, complimentary e-newsletter for the ocean shipping industry. is designed to provide insights about cargo delays around the globe that you may find useful to improve your daily operations and strategic planning. The two new mega alliances, OCEAN Alliance and THE Alliance, and 2M all began new alliance services on April 1. In this issue, we analyzed the impact of the alliance changes at 1 top ports in Asia, Europe, and North America to see how the number of mega alliance services, the number of visiting vessels, and the average vessel size are changing. We found that overall, the Asia and North America ports will have fewer alliance services, fewer visiting vessels, and larger vessels on average than before. The Europe ports that we reviewed will have a slight increase in the number of visiting vessels, while the vessel capacity will also increase. As the alliances deploy over 1, vessels to the new services, we have been monitoring the progress. We reviewed the progress of five trade lanes for the new 2M, OCEAN, and THE alliance services. As of April 24, the trans-atlantic trade is furthest along with 83% deployment, while the Asia-Middle East trade has deployed 61% of its expected vessels. If you are curious about what are proforma schedules, you are not alone. We have been referring to the alliances proforma schedules when analyzing upcoming schedule changes. In this issue, we share more about what they are and how they are useful for shippers, NVOCCs, and carriers. In our Incidents Around the World column featuring vessel and port disruptions, we reviewed the impact of the countrywide port strikes on March 15 in Brazil. The Port of Santos experienced slightly longer average berth times for vessels that arrived on the day of the strike. We invite you to monitor current events affecting your shipments and to share your delay experiences with us on our visibility blog at visibility.cargosmart.com/blog or by at innovating@cargosmart.com. ABOUT INNOVATING CargoSmart is creating a whole new visibility model for ocean shippers and logistics service providers to monitor their shipments. The rules of the game are changing in the global shipping and logistics industry. CargoSmart s innovative methods offer insights for the industry to manage their shipments. CargoSmart s monthly, complimentary newsletter delivers refreshing insights for you to make intelligent decisions for your supply chain. CONTENTS Alliance Impact on Ports 2 Alliance Transition Progress 4 What Is a Proforma Schedule? 5 World Incidents: Santos Strike 6 Contact 7 Kim Le Executive Editor CargoSmart 217 CargoSmart Limited. All rights reserved. 1

2 ALLIANCE ANALYSIS: IMPACT ON MAJOR PORTS The mega ocean shipping alliances, 2M, OCEAN, and THE started operating their new services on April 1, 217. In the previous two issues of CargoSmart s, we shared the route changes of major trade lanes before and after the alliance shift. In this issue, we examined the changes at individual ports in Asia, Europe, and North America. We reviewed the number of alliance services, the number of deployed vessels, and the average vessel capacity at 1 popular ports in Asia, Europe, and North America. We compared 2M, CKYHE, G6, and O3 services before April 1, 217 to the 2M, OCEAN and THE services after April 1, 217. We analyzed the proforma schedules provided by the ocean carriers through March 17. Fewer and Larger Visiting Vessels in Asia Figures 1-3 show the comparison of the alliance services before and after April 1 at 1 popular Asia ports, namely Shanghai, Shenzhen, Singapore, Hong Kong, Busan, Port Klang, Kaohsiung, Laem Chabang, Ho Chi Minh City, and Colombo. As shown in Figures 1 and 2, most of the Asia ports will have fewer alliance services and fewer visiting vessels for each alliance service. In addition, the average vessel size by TEU capacity for the alliance services will increase at most of the Asia ports, as shown in Figure 3. Shanghai Shenzhen Singapore Hong Kong Busan Port Klang Kaohsiung Laem Chabang Ho Chi Minh City Colombo Asia Ports Number of Mega Alliance Services Figure 1: Number of alliance services at popular Asia ports before and after April 1, 217 Shanghai Shenzhen Singapore Hong Kong Busan Port Klang Kaohsiung Laem Chabang Ho Chi Minh City Colombo Asia Ports Number of Deployed Mega Alliance Vessels Figure 2: Number of deployed alliance vessels at popular Asia ports Shanghai Shenzhen Singapore Hong Kong Busan Port Klang Kaohsiung Laem Chabang Ho Chi Minh City Colombo Figure 3: Average mega alliance vessel capacity (TEUs) at popular Asia ports The number of alliance services and the expected number of alliance vessels visiting the Asia ports will decrease by 12% and 11% respectively while the average alliance vessel capacity will increase by 7%. We anticipate that the new alliance services will be operating overall less capacity at the ports. Larger Vessels on the Alliance Services in Europe Figures 4-6 show the comparison of the alliance services before and after April 1 at 1 popular Europe ports, namely Rotterdam, Hamburg, Antwerp, Felixstowe, Southampton, Le Havre, Genoa, Barcelona, Bremerhaven, and Fos sur Mer. The findings show that half of the Europe ports we reviewed will have more visiting vessels for each alliance service, while half of them will have fewer visiting vessels, as shown in Figure 5. In addition, the average vessel size by TEU capacity for the alliance services will increase at most of the ports, as shown in Figure 6. Asia Ports Average Mega Alliance Vessel Capacity (TEUs) - 2, 4, 6, 8, 1, 12, 14, CargoSmart 217 CargoSmart Limited. All rights reserved. 2

3 Europe Ports Number of Mega Alliance Services Rotterdam Hamburg Antwerp Felixstowe Southampton Le Havre Genoa Barcelona Bremerhaven Fos sur Mer Figure 4: Number of alliance services at popular Europe ports before and after April 1, Rotterdam Hamburg Antwerp Felixstowe Southampton Le Havre Genoa Barcelona Bremerhaven Fos sur Mer Figure 5: Number of deployed alliance vessels at popular Europe ports Rotterdam Hamburg Antwerp Felixstowe Southampton Le Havre Genoa Barcelona Bremerhaven Fos sur Mer Figure 6: Average mega alliance vessel capacity (TEUs) at popular Europe ports As shown in Figure 5, the Europe ports expected number of alliance vessels varies, ranging from a decrease of 25% to an increase of 21% at the ports. Although the overall visiting vessels will increase by only 1%, the changes at the individual ports are significant. At the same time, the average alliance vessel capacity will increase by 3%. We anticipate that the new alliance services will be operating overall more capacity at the Europe ports. Europe Ports Number of Deployed Mega Alliance Vessels Europe Ports Average Mega Alliance Vessel Capacity (TEUs) 2, 4, 6, 8, 1, 12, 14, 16, 18, 2, Fewer Visiting Vessels in North America Ports Figures 7-9 show the comparison of the alliance services before and after April 1 at 1 popular North America ports, namely Los Angeles, Long Beach, New York-New Jersey, Savannah, Seattle, Tacoma, Norfolk, Oakland, Houston, Charleston, and Miami. As shown in Figure 8, most of the North America ports will have fewer visiting vessels for each alliance service. In addition, the average vessel size by TEU capacity for the alliance services will increase at most of the North America ports, as shown in Figure 9. North America Ports Number of Mega Alliance Services Los Angeles Long Beach New York & New Jersey Savannah Seattle Tacoma Norfolk Oakland Houston Charleston Miami Figure 7: Number of alliance services at popular North America ports Los Angeles Long Beach New York & New Jersey Savannah Seattle Tacoma Norfolk Oakland Houston Charleston Miami Figure 8: Number of deployed vessels at popular North America ports North America Ports Number of Deployed Mega Alliance Vessels - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 1, Los Angeles Long Beach New York & New Jersey Savannah Seattle Tacoma Norfolk Oakland Houston Charleston Miami North America Ports Average Mega Alliance Vessel Capacity (TEUs) Figure 9: Average alliance vessel capacity (TEUs) at popular North America ports CargoSmart 217 CargoSmart Limited. All rights reserved. 3

4 With the expected number of alliance vessels visiting the North America ports decreasing by 17% and the average alliance vessel capacity increasing by 5%, we anticipate that the new alliance services will be operating overall less capacity at the ports. Impact on Individual Port Operations At the individual port level, the ports that are expected to have more visiting vessels and have a greater average TEU capacity could experience an initial impact on operations as the ports adjust to the possible new volumes. For example, Southampton will have both a 21% increase in alliance vessel visits and an 8% increase in the average vessel capacity that could affect its operations. For ports that are accommodating larger vessels, the ports may need to adjust berth windows and yard operations for the greater volume of cargo. We may see initial frequent updates to carriers sailing schedules as the alliances deploy the vessels on the new services. ALLIANCE SERVICE TRANSITION PROGRESS Now that the mega alliances have been operating their new services for more than three weeks, how far along are they in fully rolling out their services? CargoSmart is closely monitoring the service transition progress of 2M, OCEAN Alliance, and THE Alliance on each of the five trade lanes Asia-Europe, trans-pacific, trans-atlantic, Asia-Mediterranean, and Asia-Middle East. We analyzed the proforma schedules and carriers published schedules to calculate the expected number of vessels for each service in the five trade lanes. We then compared the expected number of vessels to the actual number of phased-in vessels to measure the service transition progress. According to our analysis of the carriers' published schedules, it will take more than two months for all of the vessels to be deployed on the new alliance services. As of April 24, the trans-atlantic trade is furthest along with 83% deployment, while the Asia-Middle East trade has deployed 61% of its expected vessels. Trade Asia- Asia- Asia- Trans- Trans- Europe Mediterranean Middle East Atlantic Pacific Service Transition Progress 68% 63% 61% 83% 67% Figure 1: Alliances service transition progress by trade as of April 24, 217. The service transition completion rate of each alliance and trade lane varied from April 1 through April 24, as shown in Figure 2. For OCEAN Alliance, the completion rate of the Asia-Middle East services transition increased the most by 34%. For THE Alliance, the completion rate of trans-atlantic services transition increased the most by 52%. CargoSmart CargoSmart Limited. All rights reserved.

5 Asia-Europe Asia-Mediterranean Asia-Middle East Trans-Atlantic Trans-Pacific OCEAN Alliance Asia-Europe Asia-Mediterranean Asia-Middle East Trans-Atlantic Trans-Pacific THE Alliance Planned Progress % Actual Progress % Figure 2: Service transition progress of the OCEAN and THE alliances by trade from April 1 24, 217 While the service transition is in progress, shippers should continue to review their route options and adjust their carrier mix to increase performance and mitigate risk. WHAT IS A PROFORMA SCHEDULE? If you want to know the actual ocean carrier schedules and details available, you can refer to carriers sailing schedules. However, if you would like to review and analyze schedules to plan farther out into the future, you can refer to carriers proforma schedules. A proforma schedule indicates the ports in a service loop. It also includes the days of the week the vessel will call at each port. Proforma schedules can usually be found on carriers websites. Reviewing proforma schedules is useful to plan operations farther in advance and to identify upcoming service changes. Carriers prepare proforma schedules for two purposes: - For Shippers and NVOCCs: The proforma schedules provide high level information about carriers planned service coverage, days of week the vessels will arrive and depart, and estimated transit times between ports to facilitate their planning. - For Carriers: Each proforma schedule serves as a template for the vessel schedule rollout. It provides the basis for defining the sailing schedule details, including the vessels for the service and the available schedules on the loop. Route Master, a CargoSmart service, offers visibility to carriers proforma schedules. In a dashboard, you can review and compare future schedules alongside current and past schedules. You can also see the volume of proforma schedule changes over a nine-month period. More information is available on CargoSmart CargoSmart Limited. All rights reserved.

6 INCIDENTS AROUND THE WORLD Vessel casualties, port strikes, facility shutdowns, and extreme weather can all affect vessel schedules and potentially delay shipments. In this column, we cover incidents around the world that caught our attention during the previous month and their impact on shipment delays. Vessels Ports March 1 March 8 March 11 March 12 March 12 March 13 March 24 March 24 March 29 March 13 March 14 March 15 March 18 March 29 OOCL RAUMA, steering trouble, Kiel Canal LUNA MAERSK, cocaine found in container, Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico ICE STAR, container collapsed on board, Torshavn, Faroes SIMA PRESTIGE, detained for unauthorized anchoring, Malaysia HAMMONIA EMDEN, cocaine found in container, Santa Marta, Columbia ZE HONG, ran aground at Yingkou Port, China CMA CGM FIDELIO, fire in crew quarters, Valencia, Spain ALIANCA SANTOS, fire in engine room, Santos, Brazil MSC DAMLA, crew member died in accident, Antwerp, Belgium Dockworkers issued notice of overtime ban, Sweden Winter storm closed terminals at the Port of New York and New Jersey, US Countrywide port strikes, Brazil Alexandria Port closed due to bad weather, Egypt New South Kiel Canal lock at Brunbuttel closed after collision, Germany Santos Strike in Brazilian Ports Labor unions held countrywide industrial action on March 15 to protest pension reforms proposed by the Brazilian government. The strike affected all ports throughout the nation for varying durations. We studied the impact of the work stoppage at Brazil s largest container port, the Port of Santos. We observed that while the average berth time was prolonged on the strike day, it was not severe. Port of Santos Duration: March 1 31, 217 Vessel Arrivals: 157 Average Berth Time: 19.4 Hours Longest Berth Time: 54.5 Hours Average Berth Times (Hours) Santos Average Berth Times and Vessel Arrival Count (March 1-31, 217) Mar 2-Mar 3-Mar 4-Mar 5-Mar 6-Mar 7-Mar 8-Mar 9-Mar 1-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar 14-Mar 15-Mar 16-Mar 17-Mar 18-Mar 19-Mar 2-Mar 21-Mar 22-Mar 23-Mar 24-Mar 25-Mar 26-Mar 27-Mar 28-Mar 29-Mar 3-Mar 31-Mar Vessel Arrival Count Average Berth Times (Hours) Vessel Arrival Count CargoSmart CargoSmart Limited. All rights reserved.

7 Gain Actionable Insights from Big Data Big Schedules Analytics is a new feature in Big Schedules that provides an interactive dashboard to measure and analyze carrier performance and gain market intelligence for better decision making. You can set up port pairs to compare their performance based on your business needs. The powerful analytics include: On-Time Reliability Transit Time Reliability Vessel Waiting Time Analysis Subscribe to Big Schedules Analytics today at to improve your shipment planning! DATA METHODOLOGY CargoSmart established the Global Vessel Voyage Monitoring Center (GVVMC) to detect and analyze exceptions as they are happening so that shippers, forwarders, and NVOCCs can be informed earlier. Opened in Hong Kong in October 212, the GVVMC monitors and analyzes 7, vessels' movements covering 9% of the world's container capacity and over 1,1 global container ports. Using advanced analytical software tools, the center analyzes vessel patterns, to detect deviations that have the potential to cause shipment-plan exceptions and monitor live vessel schedules to measure carriers reliability. The GVVMC obtains data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS), ocean carrier websites, marine terminals, and shipment data. The center ensures high data quality by observing and reconciling multiple data sources. VISIBILITY BLOG - JOIN THE DISCUSSION Follow updates and share your insights about vessel delays on CargoSmart's blog at visibility.cargosmart.com/blog. To receive the monthly newsletter for the shipping industry by , please subscribe at We value your feedback and want to continue to improve our service and information that we provide to you. To provide feedback or ask questions, please contact us at innovating@cargosmart.com. China Germany Hong Kong United States CargoSmart CargoSmart Limited. All rights reserved.