The impact of policy decisions: the case for evidence-based policy making

Transcription

1 Consult Australia 25 February 2014 The impact of policy decisions: the case for evidence-based policy making Michael Roche Chief Executive

2 Who is the Queensland Resources Council? > The Queensland Resources Council (QRC) is a not-for-profit peak industry association representing the commercial developers of Queensland s minerals and energy resources > 82 full members explorers, miners, mineral processors, site contractors, oil and gas producers, electricity generators > 191 service members the providers of goods or services to the sector

3 Aberdare Collieries Adani Mining Allegiance Coal Altona Mining Anglo American Anglo American Exploration Aquila Resources Areva Resources Australia Arrow Energy Bandanna Energy Beach Energy BHP Billiton Cannington BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance Blackwood Corporation Caledon Coal Cape Alumina Cape Flattery Silica Mines Carabella Resources Carbon Energy Carpentaria Gold Cement Australia Civil Mining and Construction Coalbank Cockatoo Coal ConocoPhillips Australia Downer EDI Mining John Holland Leighton Contractors Liberty Resources Linc Energy Queensland Coal Investments Rio Tinto Alcan Rio Tinto Coal Australia Santos/TOGA Eagle Downs Coal Management Lucas Group Senex Energy Ensham Resources ERM Power Evolution Mining Exco Resources Glencore Coal Macmahon Holdings Mastermyne Mega Uranium Metallica Minerals MetroCoal Shell Development (Aust) Sibelco Australia Sojitz Coal Mining Stanmore Coal Summit Resources Glencore Copper Millmerran Power Management Tata Steel Resources Australia Glencore Zinc Golding Contractors Guildford Coal GVK Inova Resources International Coal Investigator Resources Isaac Plains Coal Management Jellinbah Resources Jindal Steel & Power Minerals and Metals Group Mitsubishi Development New Hope Group Norton Gold Fields Origin Energy OZ Uranium Paladin Energy Peabody Energy QCoal QER QGC Thiess U & D Mining Industry (Aust) Vale Wesfarmers Resources Westside Corporation Whitehaven Coal Yancoal Australia 82 full members 191 service members 41 associate members

4 Today s breakfast menu Evidence-based policy making underpins ongoing development and contribution of resources sector to Queensland and Australia Methodology must be consistent and proven for informed policy making Australian resources sector transparency in reporting and responsiveness second to none (if you re actually interested in the facts)

5 Economic methodology RBA-endorsed input-output modelling Resource economy accounted for around 18 percent of gross value added (GVA) in doubling share. Resource extraction accounted directly for 11.5 percent of GVA. Remaining 6.5 percent attributed to the value add of industries providing inputs to resource extraction and investment, such as business services, construction, transport and manufacturing. Resource-related activity significantly more labour intensive than resource extraction, accounting for estimated 6.75 per cent of total employment in , compared with 3.25 per cent for the resource extraction sector.

6 Applying the methodology to Queensland:

7 Total impacts in Queensland (direct + indirect) $75.7 billion in total Queensland stimulus ( $73 billion) Representing 26.7% Queensland GRP* (25.8% in ) Accounting for 18.5% of total Queensland employment (20.5% in ) * GRP figures used in the model

8 Where resources spending occurred in ($m) DIRECT INDIRECT TOTAL Direct full Indirect full Second Total Value % of total time Total time round value % of GRP added ($m) employment employees employees add Statistical division Brisbane 9,006 $ 16, ,585 $ 19,346 $ 35,851 29% 17% Central West 63 $ $ 12 $ 32 1% 3% Darling Downs 1,181 $ 1,984 18,159 $ 1,833 $ 3,817 27% 15% Far North 2,214 $ 572 6,970 $ 528 $ 1,100 8% 7% Fitzroy 10,935 $ 7,928 78,173 $ 6,787 $ 14,715 84% 73% Gold Coast 804 $ 431 5,066 $ 431 $ 861 3% 2% Mackay 8,822 $ 5,621 67,074 $ 5,451 $ 11,072 51% 77% North West 4,561 $ 1,881 10,185 $ 648 $ 2,528 28% 81% Northern 3,185 $ 1,776 20,622 $ 1,764 $ 3,540 31% 20% South West 102 $ 325 3,177 $ 244 $ % 20% Sunshine Coast 976 $ 474 5,347 $ 458 $ 931 6% 4% West Moreton 237 $ $ 43 $ 98 2% 2% Wide Bay-Burnett 1,236 $ 332 3,515 $ 282 $ 614 5% 4% Totals 43,322 $ 37, ,720 $ 37,827 $ 75, % 18.5%

9 Overall resources sector contribution to Qld 14.4% Coal 8.3% Oil and gas 3.4% 0.5% Metals 73% Other (resources) Non- resources

10 Including the flow-on effects to the business services sector across Queensland means Directly and indirectly: $1 in every $4 in Qld economy Supporting 1 in every 5 jobs in Qld Using 0.09% of state s land mass $2.3 billion in royalties to Qld

11 Transparency

12 Great Barrier Reef the facts o GBR 2,300km long and 348,000 sq km. Australian Marine Park (1975), World Heritage property (1981). o 11 trading ports operating next to GBR when World Heritage status granted. o The GBR Marine Park roughly the size of Japan, Germany or Italy. o Less than 3% of GBR coastal zone is developed. o Port-related activities occupy less than 1% of the Qld coast. o Land area disturbed by mining and gas operations is 0.09% of Qld o Land area for grazing is 86%, cropping 2.1% o In 2012, resources, rural and tourism exports totalled $40 billion. Imports serviced population of 1.1 million people.

13 Great Barrier Reef shipping, dredging facts o Neither an increase in shipping nor port dredging has been recorded as contributing to coral cover loss or historical decline in environmental health of GBR. o Ports accessed via designated, naturally-occurring deepwater channels under 24/7 reporting and monitoring (REEFVTS, Townsville). One incident in 10 years. o 19 dredging campaigns successfully managed by Abbot Point owner (NQ Bulk Ports) around 80 conducted since park declaration. o Abbot Point 3 million cubic metre relocation approved over 3 years; limited by time and volume; conditions include 150% reduction in fine particle pollution from Don and Burdekin Rivers. o The seafloor of the approved disposal area consists of sand, silt and clay and does not contain coral reefs or seagrass beds. Testing has confirmed there are no known contaminants. (GBRMPA) o The nearest coral reef is 40 km from the disposal site. o Port dredging portrayed as environmental bogey-man despite no documented evidence other than short term, localised turbidity.

14 Not letting the facts get in the way > ENGO campaign objective to shut down Queensland coal, gas industries by exaggerating dangers to Great Barrier Reef from shipping and port development. > The means UNESCO declaration of GBR as World Heritage property in-danger. > AIMS year study concludes coral cover loss caused by storm damage (48%), crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks (42% - nutrient-fed by agriculture/towns) and coral bleaching (10%). > 2013 Scientific Consensus Statement...key Great Barrier Reef ecosystems are showing declining trends in condition due to continuing poor water quality, cumulative impacts of climate change and increasing intensity of extreme events.

15 Exploiting ignorance and trashing Australia via social media

16 The infographic rules over any pretence of a factual debate

17 Disrupt and delay key projects and infrastructure while gradually eroding public and political support for the industry We need to change the story of coal. This means challenging the economics of coal Create a powerful link in the public mind between coal and health problems

18 Western/metropolitan rail corridor dust Driven by Stop Brisbane Coal Trains which since industry initiatives to address genuine concerns has retreated to core purpose stopping coal exports Campaign now with Queensland Clean Air Alliance aka Lock The Gate Similar campaigns in Newcastle and Mackay as per Stopping the Australian Coal Export Boom strategy manual Users Group: New Hope Corporation, Peabody Energy, Yancoal Australia; supply chain service providers Aurizon, Queensland Rail and Queensland Bulk Handling

19 Graeme Wood Foundation GBR campaign s major Australian sponsors

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22 Consult Australia 25 February 2014 The impact of policy decisions: the case for evidence-based policy making Michael Roche Chief Executive