Bristol office market

Transcription

1 RESEARCH Bristol office market 211 Review

2 Contacts Agency Peter White Senior Director Tel: +44 () Richard Kidd Associate Director Tel: +44 () Investment Rob Atkins Director Tel: +44 () Research Jo Warren Associate Director Tel: +44 () ECONOMY There still remains a lack of clarity surrounding the impact of the public spending cuts announced last year on both demand and employment levels in Bristol. There does however seem to be a general consensus that the city is well positioned to cope with the fallout from the cuts, because of the broad diversity of its occupier base, its competitiveness and the productivity of its economy. The impacts of the cuts will be unavoidable as public sector organisations are a major employer, with the Environment Agency, Ofsted, the Audit Commission and the Defence Equipment & Support (DE&S) all located in Bristol. However, unlike other UK regional centres, the city also benefits from its well established knowledge based economy, with aerospace, engineering, ICT, electronics, financial services, media, creative and environmental industries all contributing important roles. The GVA (Gross Value Added) data also points to the resilience of the South West s economy. In 29 when annual growth rates saw their worst falls, the South West outperformed the UK. Going forward, the regions growth prospects also look relatively optimistic with Experian forecasting annual growth of 2% by 213, which is only just below the 2.2% forecast for the UK. GVA forecasts (annual growth rate) UK South West % 6 Source: Experian BNP Paribas Real Estate One Redcliff Street Bristol BS1 6NP This report is provided for general information only. While every care is taken to ensure its accuracy, BNP Paribas Real Estate accepts no liability for any loss or damage arising from its contents. Copyright BNP Paribas Real Estate 211 Bristol Office ket 211 Review

3 BRISTOL CITY CENTRE Executive summary 211 take-up is up 55% on Q4 21 Falling grade A supply levels are a growing concern Prime rents hold firm at 27.5 per sq ft Completions levels will remain down Investment market makes a promising start Letting activity The first quarter of 211 got off to an excellent start with take-up at 159, sq ft, 55% higher than Q4 21. This rise was due to a number of large requirements circulated over the last 6-9 months being satisfied. These included law firm CMS Cameron McKenna signing the biggest pre-let in three years after taking 26, sq ft at Crest Nicholson s 2 College Square, and professional services providers Mercer and sh taking 19, sq ft at Cubex Land s The Paragon. This strong start to the year follows on from a much improved performance in 21, when annual take-up reached 459, sq ft, which was 4% higher than the 29 level. While there have so far been no owner-occupier deals in 211, the two largest deals of 21 fell into this category, with health insurance provider Simplyhealth buying the 53, sq ft Redland House, Westbury Road and Avon & Somerset Police purchasing 41, sq ft at No.1, Bridewell Street. Bristol city centre quarterly take-up (thousands sq ft) Average s sq ft Source: Bristol Office Agents Society 29 Bristol city centre quarterly availability (millions sq ft) Despite a positive start to 211, there still remains a general feeling of apathy in the Bristol office market, as there has been a definite slowing in the number of sizeable enquiries circulated during the quarter. With a lack of larger sized requirements currently in the market we envisage reduced take-up levels going forward. Availability Bristol city centre availability at the end of 211 was estimated at 2.2 million sq ft, slightly up on the previous quarter. Like many other regional centres the market is characterised by a falling grade A supply level and an increasing glut of secondary space, some of which is unlikely ever to let unless landlords decide to invest in refurbishment works. Although this situation will be temporarily alleviated in Q2 211 with the completion of the 11, sq ft Bridgwater House at HDG Mansur s Finzels Reach, the lack of grade A space will continue to remain an issue in the medium to long term because of the faltering development market in recent years. Average m sq ft Q2 Q3 Q4 29 Q2 Q3 Q4 21 Q2 Q3 Q4 211 Table 1: Major city centre office deals, 21 present Property Date Size (sq ft) Rent ( /sq ft) Tenant Comment Redland House, Westbury Road Q3 1 53, Undisclosed Simplyhealth Freehold sale No.1 Bridewell Street 1 41, 4.5m Avon & Somerset Police Freehold sale 2nd & 3rd Floors, Temple Circus Q4 1 28, 24. Institute of Physics 1 year lease 2nd & 3rd Floors, 2 College Square 11 26, 27.5 CMS Cameron McKenna 15 year lease, 1 year break 3rd Floor, Templeback 1 23, 26. NFU Mutual 9 years & 8 month lease (co-terminous with NFU s 4th floor lease) Part 2nd & 3rd Floors, The Paragon 1 21, 27.5 Ernst & Young 2 year lease, 12 year break Part Ground & 1st Floors, Temple Circus 1 2, 1st 25.5 Gnd 21.5 Part Ground & 1st Floors, The Paragon 11 19, 1st 26. Gnd 2. The College Of Law Mercer & sh 1 year lease, 5 year break 1 year lease, 5 year break I3I

4 Rents The 211 city centre prime rent remained at 27.5 per sq ft following the recent signing of the CMS Cameron McKenna pre-let at 2 College Square. This level was originally set a year earlier when Ernst & Young took 21, sq ft at The Paragon. Incentives have continued to strengthen as landlords try to maintain strong headline rents. Tenants can now typically expect three years rent-free on a 15 year lease. In contrast, grade B rents are declining and over the last 18 months to two years have fallen by as much as 25%. As the market becomes increasingly oversupplied with this type of space, we envisage this trend will continue for the foreseeable future. Looking ahead to the end of 211/early 212, there is the potential for small growth in the city centre prime rental level, which will be driven primarily by diminishing grade A supply levels. Incentives are however unlikely to lessen, as they currently perform a vital role in underpinning the headline rents. Development After a flurry of speculative completions in 29, there was a marked slowing in activity levels in 21, with the 215, sq ft One Glass Wharf being the only major completion of the year. Although substantial in size, it made little impact on the city s grade A availability level as only 41, sq ft came on to the market, as law firm Burges Salmon had already pre-let the remaining space. The other noteworthy development of 21 was Westmark s redevelopment of the former Cabot House site. At the end of last year it completed the 7, sq ft Horizon House for the Environment Agency following a pre-let deal in 28. Since then the 31, sq ft speculative part of the scheme, West One, has recently completed and in April 211 was subsequently let to Triodos Bank. For 211 it s the redevelopment of the former Courage Brewery site that has the market s attention, with HDG Mansur on course to complete the 11, sq ft Bridgewater House early this summer. The launch date has been purposefully timed to take advantage of the city s falling grade A supply over the next couple of years. The only other speculative scheme currently under construction is Crest Nicholson s 53, sq ft 2 College Square. This part speculative development recently got underway after the developer pre-let 26, sq ft to CMS Cameron McKenna in 211. The other two schemes to keep an eye on are Salmon Harvester s 9, sq ft Two Glass Wharf and Terrace Hill s 53, sq ft extensive refurbishment of its Aquila site on Redcliff Road. Although neither scheme is under construction, both are rumoured to be looking to secure pre-lets with a view to starting on site in the near future. Outlook While there is unlikely to be any new demand coming through from the public sector, we do envisage that there will still be new requirements from the banking, financial and professional service sectors. There is also the potential for some fallout from the public sector cuts, as departments look to offload their surplus (often secondary) space. Even though the office market is aware of the falling grade A availability level in the city centre, there is unlikely to be a wholesale return to speculative development this year. In part this will be due to funding issues, but also because developers are waiting to see how HDG Mansur s Bridgewater House performs this summer. If it is successful, it may give the confidence boost that the Bristol development market needs going forward. With a supply/demand imbalance looming at the top end of the market, and grade A supply levels further diminishing during the course of the year, there still remains the possibility that city centre prime rents could increase late 211/early 212. Scheme Size (sq ft) Developer Table 2: Proposed office developments Expected completion date Phase 1&2, Bank Place 24, Carlyle Group No finalised development timetable One Glassfields 185, RLAM No finalised development timetable Cabot Gate 134, CBRE Investors Considering change of use 2 Glass Wharf 9, Salmon Harvester/NFU Mutual Detailed consent, basement completed & funding in place. Pre-lets currently sought Aquila, Redcliff Road 53, Terrace Hill Substantial refurbishment with planning consent. Rumoured to be considering pre-lets 2 College Square, Harbourside 53, Crest Nicholson Detailed consent, basement completed. Now under construction ND4 92, Salmon Harvester Likely to start if a pre-let is secured Bristol Office ket 211 Review

5 BRISTOL OUT OF TOWN Executive summary 211 take-up falters Availability remains stubbornly high Development remains stagnant Prime rents plateau at 21. per sq ft Letting activity The Bristol out of town (OOT) market has got off to a slow start with 211 take-up at 72, sq ft, down 26% on Q4 21. While the largest deal of was just 14, sq ft with L-3 ine Systems UK taking space at 92 Aztec West, the Q4 21 take-up level was boosted by aerospace specialist Boeing signing up for 33, sq ft at Bristol Business Park. While the number of deals transacted during 211 was similar in level to the previous quarter, it was the size of deals that differed markedly, with the top three deals of totalling 38, sq ft compared to 65, sq ft in Q4 21. The decline in 211 take-up followed on from a much improved year in 21, when annual take-up reached 41, sq ft, which was 49% higher than 29 and on a par with the 27 market peak. Last year s figure was boosted by North Somerset Council s purchase of the 84, sq ft former Clerical Medical Castlewood building in Clevedon and by Boeing s 33, sq ft Bristol Business Park deal. Despite the completion of these larger deals, overall it was the smaller deals (sub 1, sq ft) that continued to drive the market, with 89% of deals transacted last year falling into this category. Shepherd Developments and Bell Hammer s brand new Harlequin Office Park in Emersons Green certainly proved popular with occupiers in 21, with support services group Mitie taking 27, sq ft in Building H1 and 11, sq ft in Building H2 and Avon & Somerset Police buying the freehold to Building H3. It will now be interesting to see if the 46, sq ft available at Hempton Court, Aztec West and the 15, sq ft at Brabazon Office Park get snapped up this year, as these are the only sizeable brand new schemes left in the Bristol OOT market. Availability & development At the end of 211 Bristol OOT availability was estimated at 1.2 million sq ft, marginally higher than Q4 21. Although there were no speculative completions last year and take-up was much improved, the availability level remains stubbornly high. This was in part due to the 165, sq ft former Somerfield headquarters at Park View Office Campus hitting the market, coupled with 63, sq ft at Key Point, Almondsbury Business Park. Like the city centre market, it is the rising level of secondhand space that is a major issue, with only a handful of grade A schemes now currently available. And with no speculative schemes under construction, or likely to go under construction without first securing a pre-let, this situation is likely to worsen before it improves. Bristol out of town quarterly take-up (thousands sq ft) s sq ft Average Source: Bristol Office Agents Society 29 Bristol out of town quarterly availability (millions sq ft) m sq ft Average 28 Q2 Q3 Q4 29 Q2 Q3 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 211 I5I

6 Rents At the end of 211 the Bristol OOT prime rent was 21. per sq ft for the third consecutive quarter, which is 11% lower than the 28/29 market peak of 23.5 per sq ft. While the Bristol city centre prime rental levels generally held up well during the recession, the OOT market has seen its prime rental levels weaken. This is a reflection of the different market conditions and greater occupier demand for city centre offices. The recent Q4 21 Boeing deal at Bristol Business Park did exceed the 21. per sq ft level, achieving a reported rent of 23.5 per sq ft. It is however important to put this deal in context, as the rental level was agreed at the top of the market and doesn t reflect the incentives that the tenant has received to compensate. Usually on this particular business park rents are positioned at around per sq ft (for comfort cooled space). Looking ahead, for the remainder of the year we envisage very little change in the prime rental level, as demand (particularly from the public sector) looks set to remain subdued for the immediate future. Outlook Current indications suggest that 211 could be a challenging year for the OOT market. Demand levels are sluggish with few sizeable requirements currently in the market. Speculative development is likely to remain stagnant for the remainder of the year, despite the diminishing supply of grade A space. Overall there will be very few opportunities for prime rental levels to grow this year. Bristol prime rents ( /sq ft) /sq ft Bristol out of town Bristol City Centre Table 3: Major out of town office deals, 21 present Property Date Size (sq ft) Rent ( /sq ft) Tenant Comment 63 Bristol Business Park Q4 1 33, 23.5 Boeing 1 year lease H1, Harlequin Office Park Q2 1 27, 21. Mitie Group 12 year lease 43, Bristol Business Park Q2 1 22, Selex Systems Integration 1 year lease 15 Aztec West Q4 1 17, 16. Sofinel Lease term is undisclosed 92 Aztec West 11 14, 19.5 L-3 ine Systems UK 1 year lease, with breaks at years 5, 7 & 9 23 Bristol Business Park 11 12, Thales 15 year lease, 8 & 12 year breaks 42 Bristol Business Park 11 12, 18. Motability Operations 1 year lease, break 217 Bristol Office ket 211 Review

7 Investment The Bristol investment market has got off to a promising start with 131 million transacted in the first quarter of 211, which was higher than the entire 21 level. This boost in transaction volume was mainly due to Aerium s 83 million purchase of the 216, sq ft One Glass Wharf in Temple Quay Central. The European real estate fund manager bought the property because of its trophy asset status and the potential that it offers to take advantage of the market s declining grade A supply level and strong underlying tenant demand for this type of space. Within the UK investment market there is currently an appetite for well located prime offices in secondary UK cities that offer guaranteed long-term income streams. This was not only demonstrated in the Aerium deal, but also affirmed by German fund manager Deka Immobilien who recently acquired the 87, sq ft 2 Temple Back East for 31 million. The property was completed in 22 and is fully let to law firm Osborne Clarke. Secondary offices continue to remain less attractive as credit remains tight. There is still however limited demand, as witnessed by the recent purchase of Froomsgate House. This acquisition highlights the recent falls in secondary values, with Wainbridge (in partnership with a private investor) paying just 2.9 million for the 92, sq ft building. This price was a substantial discount on the million paid for the property when it previously sold at the height of the boom. The acquisition price reflects the short term income profile and the level of anticipated capital expenditure over the short to medium term. We estimate that prime Bristol yields are currently at around 6.5%, with secondary yields ranging from 9% upwards. The recent Aerium deal at One Glass Wharf achieved a yield above this level at 6.84%. Although the building is considered a trophy asset, the higher yield reflects the 19% vacancy rate, partnership covenant and the abnormally large lot size for the local Bristol market. Outlook There can be no disputing that the Bristol office market has got off to a good start in 211, but this upturn must be kept in perspective as it was largely down to a single deal and not a flurry of activity. There still remains a feeling of hesitancy among investors, coupled with the ongoing problem of a lack of suitable product currently available. While we can say there is definitely more money in the market compared to the depths of the slump, it still falls short of the amount available in the recent boom. Bristol investment transactions million Investment volume Total numbers of deals Source: Property Data Quarterly initial yields ( 21 Dec 21) % Bristol 1 2 London (City) All offices 6 7 Source: IPD Quarterly Digest Number of transactions Address Date Sale price million One Glass Wharf, Temple Quay Central Table 4: Key Bristol investment transactions Yield Purchaser Vendor Comment Aerium Finance PWC (Receiver) Located opposite Temple Meads station, this 216, sq ft flexible grade A office building was completed in % of the property is let to law firm Burges Salmon on four new FRI leases for 2 years Three Temple Quay Q PRUPIM IVG Immobilien Multi tenanted building. Average lease length 12 years 2 Temple Back East Deka Immobilien SEB Asset Management Completed in 22. Building totals 87, sq ft & is fully let to law firm Osborne Clarke 1 George s Square Q British Steel PF IVG UK 69, sq ft building let to law firm Clarke Willmott Crescent Centre, Temple Back Wichford Henderson Caspar Fund 74 Waterside Drive Q Legal & General Property The Quadrant, Aztec Business Park Legal & General Property Source: Property Data PRUPIM LaSalle Investment Management Multi-let 197s office building totalling 88, sq ft. Largest tenant is HMRC & the Employment Tribunals. 87% of the passing rent is from government occupiers 49, sq ft office building let to NatWest 41, sq ft let to Logica UK I7I

8 main LOCATIONS ABU DHABI Al Bateen Area Plot No. 144, W-11 New Al Bateen Municipality Street 32 P.O. Box 2742 Abu Dhabi, UAE Tel.: Fax: belgium Blue Tower Avenue Louise 326 B14 Louizalaan 15 Brussels Tel.: +32 () Fax: +32 () CZECH REPUBLIC Pobřežní Praha 8 Czech Republic Tel.: Fax: DUBAi Emaar Square Building No. 1, 7th Floor P.O. Box 7233 Dubaï, UAE Tel.: Fax: FRANCE 167, quai de la Bataille de Stalingrad Issy-les-Moulineaux Tel.: Fax: germany Goetheplatz Frankfurt Tel.: Fax: HUNGARY Alkotás u. 53. H-1123 Budapest, Hungary Tel.: Fax: india Level 15, Concorde Block UB City Vittal Mallya Road Bangalore 561 Tel.: Fax: IRELAND 4 Fitzwilliam Place Dublin 2 Tel.: Fax: ITALy Corso Italia, 15/A 2122 Milan Tel.: Fax: JERSEY 3rd Floor Dialogue House 2-6 Anley Street St Helier Jersey JE4 8RD Tel.: +44 () Fax: +44 () LUXEMBOURG Axento Building Avenue J.F. Kennedy Luxembourg Tel.: Fax: POLAND ul. Górczewska Warszawa Poland Tel.: Fax: ROMANIa Union International Center 11 Ion Campineanu Street Sector 1 Bucharest 131 Tel.: Fax: spain ía de Molina, Madrid Tel.: Fax: united kingdom 5 Aldermanbury Square London EC2V 7BP Tel.: +44 () Fax: +44 () ALBANIa* Danos & Associates Blvd. Deshmoret e Kombit Twin Towers - Building 2 11th Floor Tirana Tel.: Fax: Austria* Dr. Max Huber & Partner Dr. Karl-Lueger-Platz 5 11 Vienna Tel.: Fax: BULGARIa* Danos & Associates 28, Hristo Botev Boulevard Sofia Tel.: Fax: CANADA* Cresa Partners Tel.: Fax: CYPRus* Danos & Associates 35, I. Hatziosif Ave 227, Nicosia Tel.: Fax: GReeCE* Danos & Associates 1, Eratosthenous Str Athens Tel.: Fax: JAPAN* RISA Partners 5F Akasaka Intercity Akasaka, Minato-ku Tokyo Tel.: Fax: Slovakia* Modesta (Dr. Max Huber & Partner Group) Heydukova Bratislava Tel.: Fax: NETHERLANDS* Holland Realty Partners J.J. Viottastraat JP Amsterdam Tel.: Fax: SWITZERLAND* Naef Avenue Eugène-Pittard Case Postale Geneva 17 Tel.: Fax: NORthern IReLAND* Whelan Commercial Limited Arthur House 41 Arthur Street Belfast BT1 4GB Tel.: Fax: UKRAINE* Astera 2a Konstantinovskaya Street 471, Kiev Tel.: Fax: Poland* Brittain Hadley Europa Warsaw Financial Centre 13th floor Emilii Plater Warsaw Tel.: Fax: RUSSIa* Astera 1, b.2 Nikolskaya Str. Moscow, 1912 Tel./Fax: SERBIa* Danos & associates 6, Vladimira Popovica Street Office B31 11 Belgrade Tel.: Fax: USA* Cresa Partners 2 State Street 13th Floor Boston, Massachusetts 219 Tel.: Fax: Falcon Real Estate 57 Lexington Avenue 32nd Floor New York, NY 122 Tel.: Fax: *Alliance Non contractual document BNP PARIBAS REAL ESTATE Bristol Office ket 211 Review????? Headquarters : 13, bd du Fort de Vaux 7517 Paris France SAS with capital of E 25,25,616 RCS Paris