UNOSAT Madagascar Tropical Cyclone Enawo-17 6 March 2017
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1 UNOSAT Madagascar Tropical Cyclone Enawo-17 6 March 2017 Population Exposure Analysis 6 March 2017 Geneva, Switzerland UNOSAT Contact: Postal Address: unosat@unitar.org UNITAR UNOSAT, IEH T: (UNOSAT Operations) Chemin des Anémones 11, 24/7 hotline: CH-1219, Genève, Suisse
2 Overview A strong tropical cyclone Enawo-17 in the Indian Ocean is heading towards coasts of Madagascar. It is expected to make land fall on the eastern coast of Madagascar, Tuesday 07 march and will likely cross the island and may affect several regions inland including Antananarivo. The tropical cyclone will reach a maximum wind speed of 195 km/h. Based on the observed and predicted cyclone track as of 6 th of March 2017, sustained wind speeds zones and population data from WorldPop, UNITAR-UNOSAT conducted a population exposure analysis for Madagascar. ~20 million people are exposed to wind speed of at least 60 km/h : - 597,427 people are exposed to the 120 km/h winds, - 5,100,218 people are exposed to the 90 km/h winds, - 14,293,874 people are exposed to the 60 km/h winds. Taking into account the zones with a flood hazard of 25 years return period within the predicted wind speed zones, about 1,100,000 people are living in these flood hazard zones and are potentially exposed to 60 km/h winds. About 630,000 people in the flood hazard zones of 25 years of return period and exposed to 90 km/h sustained wind speed and 83,000 in the 120km/h. 2
3 Population Exposure to Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Zones Population exposure estimates are based on cyclone track from JRC and WorldPop data 23,852,000 Total population of Madagascar 597,427 Total population living in 120 km/h wind speed zones 5,100,218 Total population living in 90 km/h wind speed zones 14,293,874 Total population living in 60 km/h wind speed zones Region / District Wind speed zones 120 km/h 90 km/h 60 km/h Total Population Alaotra Mangoro 52, , ,297 1,118,346 Ambatondrazaka 354, ,710 Amparafaravola , ,466 Andilamena 52,182 26,921 79,103 Anosibe-An'ala 95,279 95,279 Moramanga 49, , ,788 Amoron I Mania 781, ,790 Ambatofinandrahana 171, ,498 Ambositra 286, ,412 Fandriana 221, ,826 Manandriana 102, ,055 Analamanga 136,128 3,642,101 3,778,228 Ambohidratrimo 430, ,676 Andramasina 181, ,736 Anjozorobe 124,645 64, ,104 Ankazobe 11, , ,826 Antananarivo Atsimondrano 657, ,025 Antananarivo Avaradrano 392, ,045 Antananarivo Renivohitra 1,547,751 1,547,751 Manjakandriana 218, ,065 Analanjirofo 351, ,649 1,109,930 Fenerive Est 6, , ,281 Mananara-Avaratra 148,662 32, ,453 Maroantsetra 148,063 92, ,456 Sainte Marie 28,343 28,343 Soanierana Ivongo 48,025 97, ,266 Vavatenina 185, ,131 3
4 Anosy 213, ,300 Amboasary-Atsimo 21,042 21,042 Betroka 28,317 28,317 Taolagnaro 163, ,941 Atsimo Andrefana 5,022 5,022 Beroroha 5,022 5,022 Atsimo Atsinanana 964, ,401 Befotaka 56,617 56,617 Farafangana 370, ,104 Midongy-Atsimo 48,934 48,934 Vangaindrano 352, ,023 Vondrozo 136, ,723 Atsinanana 641, ,982 1,394,585 Antanambao Manampontsy 51,967 51,967 Brickaville 71, , ,806 Mahanoro 262, ,192 Marolambo 159, ,697 Toamasina I 323, ,444 Toamasina II 247, ,108 Vatomandry 149, ,370 Betsiboka 192, , ,718 Kandreho 18,317 18,317 Maevatanana 62,443 98, ,201 Tsaratanana 130, ,199 Boeny 91, , ,224 Ambato Boeni 33, , ,971 Mahajanga I 257, ,367 Mahajanga II 14,526 68,207 82,734 Marovoay 43, , ,164 Mitsinjo 26,988 26,988 Bongolava 450, ,851 Fenoarivobe 142, ,944 Tsiroanomandidy 307, ,907 Diana 344, , ,534 Ambanja 181,806 27, ,639 Ambilobe 162,360 68, ,195 Antsiranana I 136, ,218 Antsiranana II , ,559 Nosy-Be 77,925 77,925 Haute Matsiatra 1,311,529 1,311,529 Ambalavao 229, ,421 Ambohimahasoa 229, ,205 Fianarantsoa I 225, ,385 Ikalamavony 98,731 98,731 Isandra 138, ,173 Lalangina 180, ,991 Vohibato 209, ,623 Ihorombe 244, ,728 4
5 Iakora 53,823 53,823 Ihosy 128, ,365 Ivohibe 62,539 62,539 Itasy 789, ,095 Arivonimamo 330, ,019 Miarinarivo 259, ,207 Soavinandriana 199, ,869 Melaky 3,080 3,080 Ambatomainty 3,080 3,080 Menabe 144, ,515 Belo Sur Tsiribihina Mahabo 63,531 63,531 Miandrivazo 80,774 80,774 Sava 96, ,975 1,946 1,062,945 Andapa 202, ,863 Antalaha 96, , ,242 Sambava 331, ,457 Vohemar 272,437 1, ,384 Sofia 97,766 1,243,035 1,352 1,342,154 Analalava 157,363 1, ,715 Antsohihy 150, ,933 Bealanana 152, ,689 Befandriana Nord 259, ,445 Mampikony 144, ,468 Mandritsara 97, , ,926 Port-Berge (Boriziny-Vaovao) 201, ,978 Vakinankaratra 1,941,028 1,941,028 Ambatolampy 279, ,122 Antanifotsy 328, ,831 Antsirabe I 264, ,082 Antsirabe II 434, ,251 Betafo 272, ,029 Faratsiho 206, ,396 Mandoto 156, ,318 Vatovavy Fitovinany 1,523,515 1,523,515 Ifanadiana 168, ,483 Ikongo 198, ,737 Manakara Atsimo 397, ,487 Mananjary 338, ,439 Nosy-Varika 257, ,774 Vohipeno 162, ,597 Total 597,427 5,100,218 14,293,874 19,991,519 The population exposure, summarized by Region and District, has been calculated using a 100 m resolution WorldPoP dataset. This is a preliminary analysis & has not yet been validated in the field. Download complete excel table from here 5
6 Population Living Within Flood Hazard Zones with 25 Years of return period and Exposed to Tropical Cyclone Enawo-17 Population exposure estimates are based on flood hazard zones of 25 years return period (GAR Risk Data Platform), cyclone track (JRC) and WorldPop data. 23,852,000 Total population of Madagascar 83,226 Total population living in flood hazard zones of 25 years return period and exposed to 120 km/h cyclone winds 628,072 Total population living in flood hazard zones of 25 years return period and exposed to 90 km/h cyclone winds 1,088,019 Total population living in flood hazard zones of 25 years return period and exposed to 60 km/h cyclone winds Administrative level (Region / District) Flood Hazard Zones of 25 Years Return Period Total 120 km/h 90 km/h 60 km/h Area (ha) Pop. Area (ha) Pop. Area (ha) Pop. Area (ha) Pop. Alaotra Mangoro 5, ,726 79,318 51,053 18, ,798 98,386 Ambatondrazaka 58,978 27,600 58,978 27,600 Amparafaravola 110,685 46, ,685 46,156 Andilamena 5, ,428 1,457 42,447 1,828 Anosibe-An'ala 17,130 5,476 17,130 5,476 Moramanga 11,636 4,104 33,923 13,222 45,559 17,326 Amoron I Mania 83,629 24,283 83,629 24,283 Ambatofinandrahana 58,196 6,128 58,196 6,128 Ambositra 14,563 10,842 14,563 10,842 Fandriana 9,635 6,264 9,635 6,264 Manandriana 1,235 1,048 1,235 1,048 Analamanga 27,791 9,245 89, , , ,864 Ambohidratrimo 13,691 45,614 13,691 45,614 Andramasina 1,965 2,563 1,965 2,563 Anjozorobe 19,599 7,594 18,619 7,146 38,218 14,740 Ankazobe 8,192 1,651 39,077 8,865 47,269 10,516 Antananarivo Atsimondrano 7,916 53,369 7,916 53,369 Antananarivo Avaradrano 4,601 27,362 4,601 27,362 Manjakandriana 4,028 4,700 4,028 4,700 6
7 Analanjirofo 79,765 75, ,684 85, , ,140 Fenerive Est 1, ,272 47,274 42,373 48,080 Mananara-Avaratra 31,752 14,823 5,076 2,221 36,828 17,044 Maroantsetra 35,183 55,708 23,859 9,108 59,042 64,816 Soanierana Ivongo 11,730 4,566 31,547 13,281 43,277 17,846 Vavatenina 18,929 13,354 18,929 13,354 Anosy 37,589 9,360 37,589 9,360 Amboasary-Atsimo 4, , Betroka 6, , Taolagnaro 26,605 7,992 26,605 7,992 Atsimo Andrefana 15, , Beroroha 15, , Atsimo Atsinanana 240, , , ,966 Befotaka 12,705 2,533 12,705 2,533 Farafangana 58,234 90,299 58,234 90,299 Midongy-Atsimo 63,478 12,447 63,478 12,447 Vangaindrano 81,327 41,222 81,327 41,222 Vondrozo 24,705 9,465 24,705 9,465 Atsinanana 55,762 27, ,119 81, , ,100 Antanambao Manampontsy 5,766 2,249 5,766 2,249 Brickaville 7,911 3,194 79,021 26,960 86,932 30,154 Mahanoro 34,465 15,154 34,465 15,154 Marolambo 26,869 11,780 26,869 11,780 Toamasina II 47,851 24,483 47,851 24,483 Vatomandry 39,998 25,280 39,998 25,280 Betsiboka 113,171 11, ,019 14, ,190 26,491 Kandreho 22, , Maevatanana 29,828 5, ,988 14, ,816 19,508 Tsaratanana 83,343 6,673 83,343 6,673 Boeny 72,482 17, ,310 68, ,791 85,495 Ambato Boeni 43,007 9, ,249 26, ,256 35,945 Mahajanga II 25,061 6,444 36,190 8,482 61,251 14,925 Marovoay 4,413 1,499 92,340 27,173 96,752 28,672 Mitsinjo 29,532 5,953 29,532 5,953 Bongolava 117,942 24, ,942 24,909 Fenoarivobe 58,603 8,532 58,603 8,532 Tsiroanomandidy 59,339 16,377 59,339 16,377 Diana 89,878 93,725 55,421 18, , ,561 Ambanja 38,934 75,765 38,934 75,765 Ambilobe 50,511 17,909 46,934 16,511 97,445 34,419 Antsiranana II ,486 2,325 8,920 2,376 Haute Matsiatra 160,105 70, ,105 70,832 Ambalavao 37,268 9,934 37,268 9,934 Ambohimahasoa 9,285 7,415 9,285 7,415 Ikalamavony 70,061 4,814 70,061 4,814 Isandra 10,892 7,847 10,892 7,847 7
8 Lalangina 14,959 19,678 14,959 19,678 Vohibato 17,641 21,145 17,641 21,145 Ihorombe 178,534 24, ,534 24,339 Iakora 51,200 5,232 51,200 5,232 Ihosy 75,957 11,774 75,957 11,774 Ivohibe 51,377 7,332 51,377 7,332 Itasy 53,714 57,990 53,714 57,990 Arivonimamo 15,523 21,855 15,523 21,855 Miarinarivo 14,355 11,741 14,355 11,741 Soavinandriana 23,835 24,394 23,835 24,394 Melaky 5, , Ambatomainty 5, , Menabe 98,157 45,408 98,157 45,408 Mahabo 27,511 2,615 27,511 2,615 Miandrivazo 70,646 42,793 70,646 42,793 Sava 9,115 3, , ,846 6,031 1, , ,752 Andapa 26,698 12,447 26,698 12,447 Antalaha 9,115 3,520 35,689 13,934 44,804 17,455 Sambava 83,307 51,768 83,307 51,768 Vohemar 72,383 27,696 6,031 1,385 78,414 29,081 Sofia 6,153 3, , , , ,207 Analalava 58,827 12,680 58,827 12,680 Antsohihy 94,558 54,661 94,558 54,661 Bealanana 53,299 14,235 53,299 14,235 Befandriana Nord 77,868 25,416 77,868 25,416 Mampikony 67,602 19,393 67,602 19,393 Mandritsara 6,153 3,433 66,999 37,395 73,152 40,827 Port-Berge (Boriziny- Vaovao) 120,158 33, ,158 33,995 Vakinankaratra 106,799 95, ,799 95,937 Ambatolampy 17,176 24,507 17,176 24,507 Antanifotsy 26,376 30,336 26,376 30,336 Antsirabe II 7,172 10,874 7,172 10,874 Betafo 23,145 13,529 23,145 13,529 Faratsiho 7,272 7,989 7,272 7,989 Mandoto 25,658 8,702 25,658 8,702 Vatovavy Fitovinany 298, , , ,444 Ifanadiana 35,188 12,776 35,188 12,776 Ikongo 32,462 22,594 32,462 22,594 Manakara Atsimo 71,620 58,984 71,620 58,984 Mananjary 70,745 41,157 70,745 41,157 Nosy-Varika 38,872 20,835 38,872 20,835 Vohipeno 49,419 69,098 49,419 69,098 Total 100,052 83,226 1,455, ,072 2,172,902 1,088,019 3,728,837 1,799,317 The population exposure, summarized by Region and District, has been calculated using a 100 m resolution WorldPoP dataset. This is a preliminary analysis & has not yet been validated in the field. Download complete excel table from here 8
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