An Analysis of Potential Economic Impacts from the Proposed Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve

Transcription

1 February 2017 An Analysis of Potential Economic Impacts from the Proposed Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve Summary Technical Report to National Parks Conservation Association by AIM-AG Agri Industry Modeling & Analysis Group Dr. Burton C. English Dr. Kimberly L. Jensen Mr. Jamey Menard

2 This study was funded in part by a grant from the Knight Foundation. Disclaimer: This report was commissioned by the Knight Foundation in cooperation with The National Parks Conservation Association. The findings and views expressed in this study are those of the authors and may not represent those of the Knight Foundation, The National Parks Conservation Association, The University of Tennessee s Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, or the Institute of Agriculture.

3 Study Highlights The areas surrounding and within the Ocmulgee National Monument in middle Georgia contain important and unique Native American cultural sites with a rich history, hence providing a prime venue for historical and heritage tourism. The surrounding corridor of focal public lands (Bond Swamp National Wildlife Refuge, Echeconnee Creek State Wildlife Management Area, Oaky Woods State Wildlife Management Area, and Ocmulgee State Wildlife Management Area) provide opportunities for many other outdoor recreational opportunities, such as hunting, fishing, kayaking, hiking, wildlife watching, canoeing, bicycling, and camping. Consolidation of the state and federal lands in this corridor, along with the Ocmulgee National Monument, into an Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve (ONP&P) has the potential to draw increased visitation for historical and heritage tourism, as well as outdoor recreational opportunities. A National Park & Preserve has the potential to diversify the regional economy, create jobs, attract businesses, and add value to the economy. The study objectives are to: a) examine potential economic benefits to the region that could occur from the formation of an Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve; b) examine the types of businesses that might be added to the region with formation of an ONP&P; c) project how visitation might change with an ONP&P; and d) project how formation of an ONP&P might impact the region s economy. The study area includes Bibb, Twiggs, Houston, Bleckley, and Pulaski counties in central Georgia. These five counties, as well as the additional counties of Jones, Monroe, Crawford, Peach, Macon, Dooly, Wilcox, Dodge, Wilkinson, Laurens (City of Dublin), and Baldwin (City of Milledgeville) comprise the extended study area. In addition to the recreational opportunities the consolidated focal public lands could offer, two trails could contribute to a broader recreational experience at the proposed ONP&P. Extension of an existing multiuse trail (The Ocmulgee Heritage Trail) and improvements to the Ocmulgee River Water Trail could add greater cycling, walking/hiking, and paddling opportunities, potentially resulting in more multi day stays by visitors. Unique niches or themes that the ONP&P could capitalize on are its: a) prominence as an archaeologically rich Native American cultural landscape and ties to contemporary Native American culture and celebrations, particularly though the Muscogee (Creek) Nation; b) additional sites of historical importance, including 54 sites on the National Register of Historic Places, many of these being pre Civil War buildings, and sites of importance in African American history; c) potential for an ONP&P to contain what is possibly the greatest concentration of military heritage sites across time of any National Park System unit in the country; d) outstanding existing and potential opportunities for outdoor recreation, such as hunting, fishing, kayaking, hiking, wildlife watching, canoeing, bicycling, and camping; e) potential as a content rich educational venue for school groups to experience 17,000 years of continuous human cultural history as well as excellent opportunities for nature and environmental education; and f) prospects for a regionally coordinated series of festivals and celebrations built around the Ocmulgee Indian Celebration and highlighting the cultural, natural, and recreational resources of an ONP&P. i

4 Results from this study project that consolidation of the focal public lands into an ONP&P in concert with improvements to and expansion of the Ocmulgee Heritage Trail and the Ocmulgee River Water Trail would bring over 1.1 million additional visitors (a six fold increase) by 2031 under the Medium scenario compared against a No ONP&P scenario. Targeted, community supported trail improvements to the Ocmulgee Heritage Trail and the Ocmulgee River Water Trail could also bring health benefits, additional recreational opportunities, environmental benefits, economic growth, and jobs. Proposed investment projects include the Ocmulgee Heritage Trail being lengthened by at least 11 miles, and a total of 12 put in sites on the Ocmulgee River Water Trail being improved, with one of these being a new put in site. In addition, 3 camping areas with 12 sites each would be added in the proposed investment. The area could also attract additional heritage tourism. Heritage tourists have been found to be more highly educated, stay longer, and spend more during travel than other types of travelers. Heritage tourism can also encourage preservation efforts and nurture a sense of regional pride. Types of businesses likely to expand or grow in number with formation of an ONP&P include restaurants, hotels, motels, and other traveler accommodations such as bed and breakfasts, rentals of outdoor recreational gear (e.g. canoes, bikes, etc.), campgrounds, retailers and sporting goods outfitters, and tour services. When comparing the Medium scenario with a No ONP&P scenario, the additional visitors would spend $187.2 million more in the area annually by The one time economic impacts from facilities expansion/improvement are projected to be $11.7 (2016$) million in direct economic activity and $17.9 (2016$) in economic activity with multiplier effects. Continuing economic impacts from formation of an ONP&P would include those from visitor expenditures as well as additional expenditures resulting from park operations. About 90 percent of the economic impacts are projected to accrue from visitor expenditures. Under the Medium scenario, the 16 county area (Baldwin, Bibb, Bleckley, Crawford, Dodge, Dooly, Houston, Jones, Laurens, Macon, Monroe, Peach, Pulaski, Twiggs, Wilcox, and Wilkinson) is projected to benefit by $233.4 million in added annual economic activity (including multiplier effects) by 2031 from visitor expenditures and park operations. Under the Medium scenario, an estimated an annual job increase of 2,814 (including multiplier effects) are projected to be added by 2031 from visitor expenditures and park operations, compared with the No ONP&P scenario. Under the Medium versus a No ONP&P scenario, an additional $118.6 million in value added and $29.8 million in tax revenues are projected to be added from visitor expenditures and park operations, and given multiplier effects, by High and Low projections of visitor growth were also made based upon 75 th and 25 th percentiles of average annual growth rates among ten peer parks chosen based on certain shared similarities with an ONP&P, such as size, the nature of the protected resources, available recreational activities, or proximity to urban populations. Achieving the High growth scenario would likely hinge on implementation of a coherent and interconnected ONP&P, with fully developed trail systems, camping, etc., plus enthusiastic ii

5 marketing and promotion by the surrounding communities of the ONP&P and related area amenities, as well as favorable economic conditions to sustain traveler income and travel. Information for this technical report is summarized from the following 2015 parent documents associated with this study: 1) Jensen, K., J. Menard, and B. English Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve: Review of Literature on Multiuse, Water, and Heritage Trails Studies (Project Component V: Examination of a Multi Use Trail Model and a Water Trail Model as Examples of Impacts for Major Recreational Features) ; 2) Jensen, K., J. Menard, and B. English An Analysis of Potential Economic Impacts from the Proposed Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve (Project Component VI: Gateway Communities and Vibrant Economies Proximity to National Parks as a Magnet for Attracting High Quality Economic Development) ; 3) English, B., K. Jensen, and J. Menard An Analysis of Potential Economic Impacts from the Proposed Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve (Project Component III: Projections of New Business Additions and Project Component IV: Projections of Changes in Operating Budgets between the Baseline and National Park & Preserve Scenarios) ; and 4) English, B., K. Jensen, and J. Menard An Analysis of Potential Economic Impacts from the Proposed Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve (Project Component I: Projections of Economic Activity under a Baseline Scenario and Project Component II: Projections of Economic Activity under a National Park and Preserve Scenario). iii

6 Contents Overview... 1 Objectives... 2 Methods... 2 Current Area Assets and Potential Size of an ONP&P... 4 Niche for an Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve Native American Archaeological and Cultural Landscape Contemporary Native American Culture American Frontier History Military History, more broadly Outdoor Recreation Festivals and Celebrations Potential Benefits from Park Development Multiuse Trail Development Water Trails Development Heritage Tourism Supporting Businesses and Potential Growth With An ONP&P Changes in Visitation Economic Impact Analysis One time Construction/Investment Impacts Construction Multiuse Trail Construction Water Trail Annual Operating Costs Visitor Spending Impacts Visitor Expenditures Projections Economic Impacts of Visitor Expenditures Overall Economic Impacts Conclusions References List of Tables Table 1. Summary of Current Resources and Amenities Across the Focal Lands... 5 Table 2. Landing Site Characteristics Along the Ocmulgee River Water Trail... 7 Table 3. Visitor Activities and Types of Support Establishments Table 4. Estimated Projected Growth in Establishments Supporting Recreational Activities with an Ocmulgee National Park and Preserve Table 5. Estimated Numbers of Visitors by Scenario Table 6. Estimated Visitors by Type of Activity, Local and Non Local Table 7. Estimated Annual Average Days Per Participant for each Recreational Activity for the Proposed ONP&P iv

7 Table 8. Estimated Costs of Expansion of Ocmulgee Heritage Trail Based on Amerson & Walnut Creek Construction Costs by Cranston Engineering Table 9. Estimated Cost Estimates for Ocmulgee Water Trail Improvements Table 10. Estimated One Time Economic Impacts from Multiuse and Water Trail Construction and Improvements, Table 11. Overall Operating Budgets for 2014 for the Study Area Focal Public Lands within the proposed ONP&P Table 12. Estimated Medium Projected Operating Budget for the Proposed ONP&P for Years 2014, 2016, 2021, 2026, and 2031 and Associated IMPLAN Industry Codes Table 13. Estimated Economic Impacts from Park Operations, Table 14. Estimated Annual Spending per Visitor for the ONP&P (2016$) Table 15. Assigned IMPLAN Sector for Recreational Visitors Expenditures Table 16. Estimated Economic Impacts from Visitors Expenditures, Table 17. Estimated Total Net Economic Impacts to the Regional Economy with an ONP&P, a for a Medium versus a No ONP&P Scenario List of Figures Figure 1. Proposed Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve Study Area: Monuments and Wildlife Management and Refuge Areas... 1 Figure 2. Study Area for Proposed ONP&P... 2 Figure 3. Economic Impacts Modeling... 3 Figure 4. Existing and Proposed Ocmulgee Heritage Trail... 7 Figure 5. Niche for the ONP&P Within the National Parks System... 8 Figure 6. Potential Benefits from a Multiuse Trail Figure 7. Potential Benefits of Water Trails Figure 8. Benefits of Heritage Tourism Figure 9. Bond Swamp National Refuge and Potential Ocmulgee River Access Figure 10. Projected Overall Operating Budgets for ONP&P, by Scenario, (2016$) Figure 11. Projected Economic Activity From Visitor Spending and Operating, Figure 12. Projected Total Jobs Resulting From Visitor Spending and Operating, Figure 13. Projected Labor Income Resulting from Visitor Spending and Operating, (2016$) Figure 14. Projected Value Added Resulting From Visitor Spending and Operating, (2016$) Figure 15. Projected Tax Revenues From Visitor Spending and Operating, (2016$) v

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9 An Analysis of Potential Economic Impacts from the Proposed Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve Overview The areas surrounding and within the Ocmulgee National Monument (ONM) in middle Georgia contain important and unique Native American cultural sites rich in history and prehistory, providing a prime venue for historical and heritage tourism. The surrounding corridor of state and federal public lands (Bond Swamp National Wildlife Refuge, Echeconnee Creek State Wildlife Management Area, Oaky Woods State Wildlife Management Area, and Ocmulgee State Wildlife Management Area) provide opportunities for many other outdoor recreational activities, such as hunting, fishing, kayaking, hiking, wildlife watching, canoeing, bicycling, and camping (Figure 1). A local grassroots effort has emerged that has proposed consolidating the state and federal lands in this corridor, along with the Ocmulgee National Monument, to create an Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve (ONP&P). A National Park & Preserve designation could both connect and unify important cultural and historical resources (i.e. the national park component), while also preserving and permanently protecting public hunting lands and wildlife areas that have been losing ground in recent years (i.e. the national preserve component). Establishing an Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve also has the potential to draw increasing numbers of visitors for a variety of historical, heritage tourism, and outdoor recreational opportunities, diversify and add value to the regional economy, create jobs, and attract new businesses. However, quantification of the economic benefits that might accrue to the region from the formation of an ONP&P is needed. This requires quantification of the current economic values of recreation and tourism activities in focal public lands within the corridor. In addition, projection of economic impacts from a unified corridor of public lands is needed. Figure 1. Proposed Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve Study Area: Monuments and Wildlife Management and Refuge Areas (Source: National Park & Preserve Initiative, 2014) 1

10 Objectives The objectives of this study are to: a) examine potential benefits to the region from formation of an Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve; b) examine the types of businesses that might be added to the region with formation of an ONP&P; c) project how visitation might change with an ONP&P; and d) project how formation of an ONP&P might impact the region s economy. As shown in Figure 2, these state and federal public lands fall within the counties of Bibb, Twiggs, Houston, Bleckley, and Pulaski. These five counties, as well as the additional counties of Jones, Monroe, Crawford, Peach, Macon, Dooly, Wilcox, Dodge, Wilkinson, Laurens (City of Dublin), and Baldwin (City of Milledgeville) comprise the extended study area. 85 Monroe Jones Milledgeville! Baldwin Georgia 475 Bibb Wilkinson Crawford Warner Robins Peach Perry!! Houston Twiggs Bleckley Dublin Laurens! 16 Macon Dooly 75 Hawkinsville! Pulaski Eastman Dodge! Cordele! Wilcox Ocmulgee River Copyright: 2013 Esri Figure 2. Study Area for Proposed ONP&P Methods First, the current assets of the focal public lands and an existing water trail, the Ocmulgee River Water Trail, and a multiuse trail, the Ocmulgee Heritage Trail are described. Given these assets and others, a potential niche for a Georgia based national park is explored. To examine how further development of these park assets might benefit the area, prior research was drawn upon regarding benefits such as recreational, environmental, health, economic, educational, historic 2

11 preservation, and regional pride (objective a). To examine the types of businesses that might be added to the region (objective b), current levels of supporting businesses such as food and beverage stores, accommodations, and food service and drinking establishments were measured. These levels were then compared with counties surrounding similar national park units in other parts of the country (peer parks) to evaluate potential growth rates in these types of businesses with the addition of an ONP&P. To obtain projected changes in visitation, growth in visitors following park establishment were examined for peer parks with these growth rates applied to the current sum of visitors to the focal lands to project into the future (objective c). Several types of economic impacts that might result from an ONP&P were examined (Figure 3). These include one time (non reoccurring) economic impacts from construction of multiuse trails, river put ins for paddlers, campsites, and other amenities that would potentially benefit an ONP&P formation. Recurring economic impacts include those from additional park operating budgets and additional visitor expenditures to the area (objective d). Figure 3. Economic Impacts Modeling To identify the interrelationships in a regional economy, IMPLAN (Impact Analysis for Planning) software and databases were used. IMPLAN employs a regional social accounting system and can be used to generate a set of balanced economic/social accounts and multipliers. A more detailed explanation of the IMPLAN modeling system is provided in the document, Projected Business Economic Impacts from the Proposed Ocmulgee National Park and Preserve. Several economic impact indicators were measured. These include Economic Activity, Jobs, Labor Income, Total Value Added, and Tax Revenues. Economic activity in the context of this 3

12 study would be the total visitor expenditures, as well as expenditures on park operating budgets and investment in construction projects associated with the park s formation. Definitions of associated terms are provided in the shaded exhibit box below. For visitation and economic impacts, four scenarios are examined: 1) No ONP&P (i.e. focal lands continue to operate separately as they do now), and three ONP&P scenarios, 2) Low, 3) Medium, and 4) High. Hence, for the study, the current visitation to the focal lands and anticipated visitor growth under each scenario are projected. In addition, for each scenario, economic impacts from visitor expenditures and park operating budgets are estimated. The No ONP&P scenario will constitute the baseline. The difference between visitation or economic impacts under the ONP&P scenarios and the No ONP&P scenario constitutes the net impact from the park s formation. Estimates will include information about current visitation and associated expenditure impacts from park activities, including historical & heritage tourism, hunting, fishing, paddling, wildlife watching, hiking, camping, horseback riding, and bicycling. Current park operating budgets are provided based upon actual budgets and estimates for the focal public lands. Also, current proportions between recreational activities are assumed to remain constant. Economic Impacts Terms Economic Activity annual value of goods and services produced by an industry per year. Jobs total wage and salary employees, as well as self employed jobs in a region, for both full time and part time workers. Labor Income employee compensation (wages, salaries, benefits, and total contributions to social security/medicare) plus proprietary income (self employment income, including salary, benefits and total contributions to social security/medicare). Total Value Added all income to workers paid by employers; self employed income; interests, rents, royalties, dividends, and profit payments; and excise and sales taxes paid by individuals to businesses. Tax Revenues includes sales and excise taxes, customs duties, property taxes, motor vehicle licenses, severance taxes, other taxes, and special assessments. It excludes most nontax payments, and as the name indicates, subsidies are netted out. Estimates provided assume transactions are made, for the most part, within the private sector. Direct effects immediate effects associated with the change in the final demand for a particular industry, for example, the value of visitor expenditures. Indirect effects secondary effects or backward linked industries caused when inputs needs change due to the impact of directly affected industry, for example when restaurants purchase food from wholesalers. Induced effects response by all local industries caused by increased expenditures of new household income and inter institutional transfers generated from the direct and indirect effects of the change in final demand for a specific industry, for example when employees of the hotels use their income earned to purchase goods and services in the study area. Total Effects sum of direct, indirect, and induced effects. Current Area Assets and Potential Size of an ONP&P Before examining how a national park & preserve might benefit the area, it is helpful to examine the area s current assets, including the focal public lands and the multiuse and water trails, and how these assets might be leveraged to sustain visitation to an ONP&P. In examining the potential niche for a Georgia based national park & preserve, the area s Native American cultural and archaeological significance, historical importance, including frontier and military history, associated educational program possibilities, and outdoor recreation opportunities are discussed. A summary of the resources and amenities in each of the focal lands is presented in Table 1. The total acreage of a consolidated ONP&P, based on the current size of the existing state and federal public lands, would be 38,453. Before proceeding with this summary however, a brief digression is in order to discuss the ultimate potential size of an ONP&P. The eventual and definitive boundary of an ONP&P would, of course, be determined by the United States Congress after extensive feedback by local decision makers and the public. However, for purposes of illustration within the context of this study we can employ the following ballpark estimates. A minimal ONP&P could be on the order of 40,000 acres, consolidating and minimally 4

13 Table 1. Summary of Current Resources and Amenities Across the Focal Lands Resource/Amenity Ocmulgee National Monument Bond Swamp National Wildlife Refuge 5 Echeconnee Creek State WMA Ocmulgee State Wildlife Management Area Oaky Woods State Wildlife Management Area Acres 702 6, ,243 ~ ,453 Total Annual Recreation Visits (2013) 122,799 9, ,160 6, ,265 Historical Areas X X Visitor Center X X Museum X X Picnic Areas X X X Parking X X X X X X Walking or Hiking Trails Undeveloped Undeveloped Undeveloped 9.5 miles plus Undeveloped Bike Trails 5 miles a 5 miles Bike Rental Camping X X Primitive X Fishing X b X X X X X Canoeing/ Kayaking X X X Canoe/Kayak Rental Cycling X X Boat Launch X X Horse trails? Wildlife Viewing X X X X X X Hunting X Archery Only X X X Restrooms X X X a Connects to Ocmulgee Heritage Trail b Fishing is permitted on the banks of the creek, river, and clay pond, with a valid state fishing license. Fishing is NOT permitted from boardwalks and bridges. Sources: Southwick Associates, Inc. & Responsive Management 2014 and USDA/NPS 2014 connecting the existing state and federal public lands along the river between Macon and Hawkinsville. An intermediate ONP&P might approach 60,000 acres in size and include additional areas, such as those within the approved Bond Swamp National Wildlife Refuge boundary that are not currently owned by the Refuge or tracts that were formerly leased by the state s wildlife management areas but that may not currently be part of the state system. Furthermore, other types of lands may exist in the corridor and could potentially be incorporated into an ONP&P, such as lands contributed by counties or municipalities, Georgia Department of Transportation or U.S. Army Corps of Engineers wetlands mitigation properties, or land trust conservation parcels. A maximal ONP&P scenario could possibly approach 80,000+ acres in size, if Congressional authorization were to include areas along the eastern boundary of Robins Air Force Base to promote and protect base compatible land use, and potentially parts of key tributaries that adjoin Total

14 the Ocmulgee River and possess high natural resource values, such as portions of the Big Indian, Echeconnee, and/or Tobesofkee Creeks. Also, it should be noted that any Congressionally authorized boundary would not immediately result in public ownership of relevant parcels. Boundary authorization would be followed by an extended period in which an ONP&P would acquire land or interests in land within its boundary by donation or purchase from willing sellers, and dependent on available funding. Returning now to the examination of the 38,456 acres making up the existing state and federal public lands, the number of developed miles of walking/hiking trails among the focal lands is close to 10 miles. In addition, the WMA s contain undeveloped walking/hiking trails that could be developed in the future. Biking trails currently span 5 miles, but could connect several areas in the future. The consolidated areas could offer hiking, biking, camping, fishing, paddling, horseback riding trails, wildlife viewing, and hunting opportunities. The monument would offer cultural and historical experiences, including archaeological sites and a visitor center/museum. Notably missing are larger developed campsites, extended bike or multiuse trails, a comprehensive hiking trail systems, and sufficient bicycle and canoe/kayak rentals. In addition to the focal public lands, two trails could contribute to a more integrated Ocmulgee National Park and Preserve (ONP&P). These are an expanded multi use trail, based off of the existing Ocmulgee Heritage Trail and the planned Phase 2 extension of the Ocmulgee River Water Trail. Both trails complement the heritage/historical tourism offered by the current Ocmulgee National Monument and other sites of historical significance within the area. Macon s Ocmulgee Heritage Trail (Figure 4) provides opportunities for biking, running, nature observation, and fishing. Expansion of the trail by an additional 11 miles could extend recreational options to a half day s ride length. In addition, an even more ambitious goal could envision extending a multiuse trail the length of the corridor between Macon and Hawkinsville, rivaling the popular Silver Comet Trail in northwest Georgia (see additional discussion below). One challenge facing the Ocmulgee River Water Trail is the irregular spacing of public landing sites and several long stretches of river with no easily accessible take outs. Local discussions have emerged about developing and improving public accessibility along the full 200 mile length of the Ocmulgee River Water Trail from Macon to the start of the Altamaha River near Lumber City (Telfair County). The north end of this planned trail would cross, and in some cases, connect the focal public lands in the ONP&P study area. Existing landing sites, stage of development, and amenities are shown in Table 2. Further improvement of some landing sites, as well as the addition of camping and restrooms would substantially improve river accessibility and the overall trail experience. 6

15 Ocmulgee River Ocmulgee National Monument Ocmulgee Heritage Trail Proposed Existing Macon Ocmulgee River Copyright: 2013 Esri Figure 4. Existing and Proposed Ocmulgee Heritage Trail Table 2. Landing Site Characteristics Along the Ocmulgee River Water Trail Launch Site Launch Type Parking Restrooms Picnic Hiking Trails Camping Distance Between 1. Amerson Park #1 (Bibb County), mile Paved Single Boat Yes Portable Yes Yes No Spring Street (Bibb Paved Single County), mile Boat Yes Portable No No No Bullard (Twiggs County), mile (private land surrounding) 4. Knowles (Houston County), mile (adjacent 170 acre greenspace) 5. Westlake (Twiggs County), mile (private land surrounding, remote) Single Concrete Unpaved 20 vehicles No No No No 31.6 Double Concrete Yes No No No No 9.7 Dirt Ramp Unpaved 20 vehicles No No No No 8.0 7

16 Table 2. Landing Site Characteristics Along the Ocmulgee River Water Trail Launch Type Parking Restrooms Picnic Launch Site 6. James Dykes Park (Bleckley County), mile 141 (inside Ocmulgee WMA) 7. Uchee Shoals (Pulaski County), mile Mile Branch Park (Pulaski County), mile Sandy Hammock (Pulaski County), mile Dodge County (Dodge County), mile 101.4; 11. Half Moon (Wilcox County), mile Statham Shoals (Wilcox County), mile McCranie (Dodge County), mile 83.6 Hiking Trails Camping Distance Between Single Concrete Yes No No No Yes 8.4 Yes Single Few Concrete vehicles No Yes No No 12.7 Double Concrete Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 1.1 Unpaved Double Few Concrete vehicles No No No Yes 14.2 Double Concrete Double Concrete Unpaved 15 to 20 vehicles No Yes (1 table) No No 11.6 Yes 25 vehicles No No No No 8.6 Single Concrete Unpaved No Single Concrete Yes (1 table) No No 5.4 Unpaved Few vehicles No No No No 3.8 Niche for an Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve An ONP&P could fill a unique niche within the National Parks System (see Figure 5). The consolidated park could appeal to historical/heritage tourists, outdoor recreationists, military history enthusiasts, educational tours (environmental as well as cultural), and festival goers. Macon and the surrounding areas have many of the amenities, exhibits, and services needed to meet these needs, though some exist in an underdeveloped, underutilized, and underappreciated form. The discussion below examines several themes that could be cultivated and promoted in concert to greatly enhance the overall gains that the local economy and communities could realize from the creation of an ONP&P. 3. American Frontier History 2. Native American Culture 1. Native American History & Archaeology 4. Military History ONPP 7. Festivals & Celebrations 5. Outdoor Recreation 6. Cultural & Environmental Education Figure 5. Niche for the ONP&P Within the National Parks System 8

17 1. Native American Archaeological and Cultural Landscape The Ocmulgee National Monument (ONM) forms the heart of an ancient Native American cultural landscape extending to the north and south along the Ocmulgee River. The ONM visitor center museum has over 2,000 artifacts on display documenting 17,000 years of continuous human habitation in middle Georgia, back to the time when the first people encountered the last of the great Ice Age mammals (National Park Service, Ocmulgee National Monument 2015). However, the ONM houses only a tiny fraction of the many thousands of artifacts that were recovered in the 1930s era archaeological excavations that led to the creation of the park. In addition, the Southeast Archeological Center (SEAC) of the National Park Service, located in Tallahassee, archives over nine million artifacts and historical documents from Georgia and throughout the southeast. This vast body of archaeological resources represents the basis for a significant expansion of the ONM visitor center museum, or even the possible creation of a Museum of the Southeastern Indian modeled after the Smithsonian Institute's National Museum of the American Indian ( Such a major cultural institution could be developed in Macon as a complement to the ONM, potentially making a much larger proportion of the National Park Service and SEAC collections available for interpretation and public enjoyment. A partnership between Mercer University and the College of the Muscogee Nation in Oklahoma might be cultivated in order to assist in the effort. 2. Contemporary Native American Culture Recent years have seen a resurgence in contemporary Native American engagement with the Ocmulgee National Monument and the middle Georgia area by the Muscogee Creek Nation (MCN) in Oklahoma, as well as by other tribal groups. In the 1990s, the MCN took a leadership role in gaining recognition of the national significance of the Ocmulgee Old Fields (and area incorporating and extending beyond both the ONM and the Bond Swamp National Wildlife Refuge) and its eligibility for listing on the National Register of Historic Places as a Traditional Cultural Property (TCP). The TCP is considered to be a sacred place in the formative oral history and cultural mythology of the Muscogee people. In addition, September of 2015 marked the ONM s 24 th annual Ocmulgee Indian Celebration. This festival commemorates the culture of the Muscogee, Seminole, Cherokee, Choctaw, Chickasaw and other Native peoples and has become a major event in Macon and the region, drawing thousands of visitors for Native American dancing, storytelling, food, crafts, and demonstrations, as well as exhibits about the first cultural community of Macon. Native Americans from up to 25 different tribes travel from across the country to participate. This Native American cultural connection is a remarkable asset that is unique to middle Georgia. Additional initiatives and attractions could be developed to build on this strength. For instance, similar to the idea of expanding the ONM visitor center museum or creating a Museum of the Southeastern Indian, a Center for Contemporary Muscogee Creek Culture might be established to highlight the story of the Muscogee Creek people, as well as their lives and aspirations as a contemporary Native American culture, and to rekindle connections between the seat of modern tribal culture in Oklahoma and their historic roots in middle Georgia. A Muscogee Creek Cultural Center could act as a counterpart to a museum by focusing on the hosting of special cultural events, temporary/rotating exhibits, educational and Native American music and arts programming, and cultural exchange programs. Such a Center could, again, foster partnership and interaction between students and faculty at the College of the Muscogee Nation, and Mercer University, as well other local educational institutions, the MCN Tribal Historic Preservation Office, and the National Park Service. The Center could also serve as a nexus for engaging and adapting existing Park Service programs, like Teacher Ranger Teacher 9

18 ( and Pro Ranger ( htm?id=27FAA D EBC7479DCB99DD8). 3. American Frontier History In addition to its prehistoric significance, the Ocmulgee River corridor south from Macon was a crossroads of key sites, events, and individuals during the Colonial and Frontier eras that altered the course of America s history. The Ocmulgee can serve as a lens on these noteworthy, but often underappreciated chapters in our national narrative. To give just two examples, the transition from the Late Mississippian Lamar culture to the historic Creek period, intersects with the time of first European contact, represented by Spanish exploration and the De Soto expedition, as well as the subsequent impacts to the Native populations. Second, for a brief time in the early 19 th century, the Ocmulgee was the American frontier and the river served as the boundary between an expanding United States and the sovereign lands of the Native Americans. Several Creek tribal towns existed on the river, along with an English trading post ( ) and eventually Fort Benjamin Hawkins ( ), both built at present day Macon. During the period of Tecumseh s Rebellion and mission to the southern tribes ( ), the War of 1812 ( ), the Creek Civil War ( ), and the first Seminole War ( ), ten additional forts, known as General Blackshear s Line, were erected along the river south of Fort Hawkins to reinforce and garrison the frontier and serve as staging areas for American troops battling Native American and British forces to the west and south. The exact locations of these town and fort sites are still being determined. The periods and events described above are not well represented within the National Park System and are worthy of being better preserved and interpreted for all Americans. Additionally, by focusing on the region s history and heritage, the Ocmulgee s natural and recreational resources could be branded in such a way as to promote and enhance a middle Georgia regional identity that is unique, both to the state and the southeast. For instance, the historic frontier fort sites of General Blackshear s Line, provide some ready made thematic elements for branding and promoting a potential Macon to Hawkinsville multi use trail (e.g. General Blackshear s Trail), that could be similar in scope to northwest Georgia s highly successful Silver Comet Trail (see below). Finally, the existing Fort Hawkins historical site in Macon ( which is adjacent to but not a part of the Ocmulgee National Monument, provides an outstanding resource for the growth and development of living history programming. The site is small and future expansion potential remains to be determined, though the City s Fort Hawkins Commission developed a master plan in 2008 ( that outlines desired development of the living history and interpretive programs, as well as a plan for phased additions to the site. Urban revitalization efforts in Macon could build on the Fort Hawkins site to create an ambitious living history area modeled after such world renowned locations as Colonial Williamsburg ( Jamestown ( Thomas Jefferson s Monticello ( George Washington s Mount Vernon ( or Plymouth Plantation ( 4. Military History, more broadly Though further confirmation would be needed by qualified historians, there is a distinct possibility that the creation of an ONP&P could encompass the greatest concentration of military heritage sites across time of any other National Park System unit. The following features and events lend support to this prospect: Pre historic Native American fortifications at Brown s Mount, Lamar Mounds and the National Monument. 10

19 Spanish Conquest of the Americas Desoto s 1540 expedition may have passed through or near the National Monument Queen Anne's War and the British War on Spanish Florida to limit Spanish expansion Col. James Moore of the Carolinas led an English and Native American force into middle Georgia stopping at the Ocmulgee trading post at the present day National Monument The Yamasee War between the British in South Carolina and various Native American tribes, including the Muscogee Creek resulted in the burning of the Ocmulgee trading post and led to the founding of Savannah and the creation of the colony of Georgia by James Oglethorpe Fort Hawkins was built as an American military and trading outpost overlooking the Indian Mounds in 1806 and became the U.S. military command headquarters on the southeastern frontier. Over the next few years, during the period of Tecumseh s Rebellion, the War of 1812, the Creek War, and the Seminole Wars, the series of ten additional forts erected along the Ocmulgee river (General Blackshear s Line) served as a reinforced defensive border and a staging area for American troops and supplies to engage in conflicts further afield to the west and south Following the siege of Atlanta, the Civil War battles of Dunlap Hill and Walnut Creek took place on and in the vicinity of the present day National Monument and Camp Wheeler was a military camp of the United States Army, used for the training of infantry during both World Wars and, during World War II as a POW camp. Camp Wheeler was located at the Swift Creek site on the present day Bond Swamp National Wildlife Refuge. In addition to these historic episodes, another significant military heritage resource is the Museum of Aviation at Robins Air Force Base ( The Museum currently offers a range of educational programs and summer camps and could conceivably take on additional interpretive rolls, in partnership with a National Park & Preserve, extending the chronology of Georgia s and the nation s military heritage to include middle Georgia s role in the Wars in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. 5. Outdoor Recreation According to the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, the Ocmulgee River corridor is among the highest priorities for wildlife conservation under the State Wildlife Action Plan (SWAP), containing over 85,000 acres of contiguous bottomland hardwood swamp, the largest block of such habitat remaining on the upper Coastal plain. The river and forests form a major flyway for migratory birds and home to important populations of rare plant and animal species, including the unique middle Georgia black bears. This abundance of wildlife and natural areas forms a backdrop for a wealth of outdoor recreational opportunities, several of which stand out as unique regional assets. Among these are: 1) the effort to fully implement infrastructure improvements and new landings along the Ocmulgee River Water Trail, 2) the effort extend the Ocmulgee Heritage Trail and possibly even envision and develop a long distance, multi use trail between Macon and Hawkinsville (possibly designed around the theme of General Blackshear s Line of frontier era forts), 3) and the effort to safeguard public hunting and fishing as important recreational and cultural activities in middle Georgia, as well as to investigate ways that the conservation of public hunting lands might contribute toward enhancing base compatible land use and long term viability of Robins Air Force Base as a regional military and economic hub. Additional prospects can be envisioned, arising from these existing and developing assets. For example, future marketing efforts might also include initiatives to attract visitation and recreational use by various scouting organizations (e.g. Boy Scouts of America, Trail Life USA, Troops of St. 11

20 George, Royal Rangers, Girl Scouts of the USA, American Heritage Girls) to the lands and waters along the Ocmulgee River. For example, the Central Georgia Council of the Boy Scouts of America is located in Macon and could be a partner in the establishment of various activities, modeled after components of other BSA High Adventure programs, like the Northern Tier paddling camp ( and the Atchafalaya Swamp Base program in Louisiana ( Once completed, the Ocmulgee River Water Trail will link with the Altamaha River Water Trail and will provide a continuous paddling experience of over 300 miles, connecting the Ocmulgee National Monument with the Fort Frederica National Monument on the Atlantic coast. Such a challenging experience would be attractive to many people involved in scouting, could be marketed as such, and could promote Macon as the adventure s starting point. Finally, river based educational paddle adventures for urban youth and school groups are growing in popularity, built around the work of organizations like Minneapolis based Wilderness Inquiry ( Wilderness Inquiry s brings its Canoe mobile and Urban Wilderness Canoe Adventure programs to communities around the country to provide outside the classroom experiential learning to K 12 school groups. Possibly the Ocmulgee Water Trail Partnership and other Middle Georgia community organizations could partner with local foundations to sponsor Urban Wilderness Canoe Adventures for local schools. 6. Festivals and Celebrations As mentioned previously, Macon s Ocmulgee Indian Celebration is becoming a major regional cultural event, drawing thousands of visitors annually. One way to cultivate a regional heritage tourism brand centered around the establishment of an ONP&P might be to amplify and build off of the success of the Ocmulgee Indian Celebration by developing a series of regionally coordinated annual, or bi annual festivals and celebrations in the communities surrounding the National Park & Preserve that capitalize on many of the inherent themes represented by the park. Examples could include a middle Georgia Black Bear & Wildlife Festival highlighting the regions unique bear population and wealth of wildlife resources, a Colonial & Frontier Days Festival showcasing the rich frontier era history, early lifeways and wilderness skills along the Ocmulgee, and an Ocmulgee Paddle A Thon & River Festival highlighting the river itself as a regional amenity and recreational resource. The five counties surrounding an ONP&P (Bibb, Houston, Pulaski, Twiggs, and Bleckley) could synchronize and align their efforts, closely integrating several new celebrations with other existing area festivals, such as Macon s Cherry Blossom Festival and the Hawkinsville Harvest Festival & BBQ Championship, with one or more specific themes or festivals focused on each community. Potential Benefits from Park Development Multiuse Trail Development The most prominent example in Georgia of a successful, community led effort to build a multiuse trail is the Silver Comet Trail in northwest Georgia. Built over the course of a decade, from 1998 to 2008, the Silver Comet is now the longest paved trail in the country at 61.5 miles, connecting with the additional 33 miles of the Chief Ladiga Trail in Alabama. The combined trails stretch from Smyrna, Georgia to Anniston, Alabama. The Silver Comet itself is now attracting nearly 2 million users per year, generating $47 million in annual local economic activity. Property values within a quarter mile of the Silver Comet have increased between 4 and 7 percent, with corresponding impacts on property tax revenues to municipalities and school districts (Kenemer, Rushing, and Smith, 2013). 12

21 Nationally, bicycling recreation contributes about $133 billion to the U.S. economy (Outdoor Industry 2006). Investment in a multi use trail can provide a myriad of benefits to surrounding communities. In addition to economic impacts, multiuse trails can provide jobs, health benefits, recreational opportunities, transportation alternatives, and improved property values (Figure 6). Recreational Opportunities: Both local residents and visitors may benefit from the opportunity to use multiuse trails for recreational purposes. The majority of recreational activities on an extended Ocmulgee Heritage Trail would likely be focused on biking, running, and walking/hiking. The Figure 6. Potential Benefits from a Multiuse Trail proximity to water could also promote fishing activities nearby. If a trail is lengthy enough for a half or full day s bicycle ride and a full day s paddling experience, users will be more likely to stay overnight in the area. Additionally, the proximity of a water trail and an extended multiuse trail could be used to promote special events, like a biathlon/triathlon combining running, bicycling, and/or paddling events. Jobs: A multiuse trail can add jobs to a local area from design, engineering and construction of multiuse trails and ongoing trail maintenance. Trail based tourism also creates jobs through visitor expenditures in the local area, providing opportunities to expand area businesses and attract new ones. Plus, the amenity of having additional greenspace and opportunity for outdoor recreation is attractive to businesses that may be looking to locate to areas offering significant lifestyle amenities to their employees. Economic Growth: Economic activity arises from direct expenditures that are made by non local and local trail users (restaurants, stores, fueling stations, and other services), as well as from trail construction, maintenance, and resurfacing (Toma, Hoag, and Griffin 2003). Upfront construction expenditures are considered a one time expenditure, but maintenance is recurring. Expenditures on these items directly then place demands on input suppliers as well as from income earned and spent in the local area as a result of the added jobs. Health Benefits Wang et al. (2005) using data from Lincoln, Nebraska s 1998 Recreational Trails Census Report and the literature found per capita annual cost of using trails was U.S. $ ($59.28 construction and maintenance, $150 equipment and travel). However, per capita annual direct medical benefit of using the trails was $ Hence, the cost benefit ratio was 2.94, meaning that for every $1 investment in trails led to $2.94 in direct medical benefit. For North Carolina s Ecusta Trail, an estimated new 1,600 exercisers would be added, with an estimated $5 million in cost reductions for the 19 mile trail (Alta/Greenways 2012). 13 Jobs Economic Growth Health Multiuse Trail Benefits Property Values Recreation Transportation/ Environ. Benefits

22 Transportation Alternatives and Environmental Benefits: Multiuse trails can provide several types of environmental benefits resulting from additional greenspace and wildlife habitat, as well as serving as transportation avenues for bicycling and pedestrian commuters. Property Values: In percentage terms, estimated increases in property values close to trails, parks, and greenspaces (within a quarter mile) from several studies range from the 4 to 7 percent (Alta/Greenways 2012). According to the Middle Georgia Regional Commission, under current trail expansion and improvement plans, the Ocmulgee Heritage Trail will be approximately 22 miles long and occupy roughly 1,400 acres at total build out (Middle Georgia Regional Commission, 2011). The possibility of lengthening the Trail even further south, potentially as far as Hawkinsville, has been raised by trail advocates, though no master planning has yet taken place. Special mention should also be made of another middle Georgia trail effort that could complement and synergize with an expanded Ocmulgee Heritage trail. The Central Georgia Rails to Trails Association ( is an organization based in Milledgeville, Georgia that is seeking to convert an abandoned railway route linking Macon and Milledgeville into a 33 mile long multiuse trail. According to the Association, the ultimate vision is to create a recreational connector between two major middle Georgia cities, by establishing an intervening trail joining Macon s Ocmulgee Heritage Trail with Milledgeville s Oconee River Greenway. If either, or both, of these ideas were to reach fruition, i.e. extending the Ocmulgee Heritage Trail to Hawkinsville, or completing a Central Georgia Rails to Trails conversion, then the resulting trail system could rival or surpass the Silver Comet in regional visitation and economic impacts. However, unlike the Ocmulgee River Water Trail, which is already conceptually well developed and only in need of infrastructure improvements, these long distance, multi use trail initiatives would entail a longer time horizon for planning and implementation and involve significant challenges in terms of trail right of way acquisition and siting, thus requiring a long term commitments by communities, trail advocates, possibly with the help of local foundations, to work collaboratively on funding and other challenges. The ultimate payoff from such efforts could nevertheless be extensive and wide ranging. Water Trails Development In 2012, six percent of Americans, or more than 19 million individuals, participated in some form of paddling. An estimated 10.3 million Americans were kayakers and took an average outing of eight days in 2012 (seven for all paddlers) (Outdoor Foundation and The Coleman Company, 2013). Several studies have noted the potential benefits of water trails. For example, Edmonds (2011) lists Georgia s water trails as providing 1) river conservation (i.e., river clean ups, volunteer trail keepers/water monitors, land protection, dam removal, improved planning efforts, additional permanent protection) 2) healthy lifestyle, and 3) economic benefits (ecosystem services, nonextractive or in stream benefits). The Middle Georgia Regional Commission lists the benefits of river trails as stimulating local economies via boosting tourism and recreational businesses, increasing property values, promoting healthier and more active lifestyles, and encouraging natural resource protection (Middle Georgia Regional Commission, 2011). Several potential benefits, including health, recreation, river conservation, enhanced property values, economic growth, and job growth are discussed below (Figure 7.) 14

23 Health Benefits Paddling provides recreational opportunities that can readily extend to wildlife viewing, camping, cycling, and other outdoor activities (Edmonds, 2011; Ellerbrock et al, 2014; Johnson, 2002; Middle Georgia Regional Commission, 2012; Moore and Siderelis, 2003; Roanoke River Partners 2015). River Conservation The Middle Regional Commission s (2012) feasibility study along the Ocmulgee and Oconee Rivers note the benefits of water trails not only for recreation, health (exercise and reduced pollution), and potential alternative transportation, but also for other benefits such as water quality (both for wildlife and humans), wildlife habitat suitability, conservation and the ensuing education derived from conservation efforts, and greenspace preservation via better planned development. Recreation like multiuse trails, both local residents and visitors may benefit from the opportunity to use water trails for recreational purposes. Numerous studies mention other activities paddlers enjoyed while on their visit. Camping, fishing, hiking, walking/running, biking, wildlife watching, tubing, and bird watching were additional activities enjoyed (Beedle, 2008; Blair, 2012; Bowker et al, 2004; Ellerbrock et al, 2014; ICF Macro, Inc., 2012; Middle Georgia Regional Commission, 2011; Moore and Siderelis, 2002; Roanoke River Partners, 2015; and Whisman et al, 1995). Property Values Daniels and Lazzara (2005) found that the downtown river restoration of the Chattahoochee was expected to increase real estate values from 2005 to percent in Columbus, Georgia and 37 percent in Phenix City, Alabama. Economic Growth Edmonds (2011) further states that water trails provide many benefits with very little investment. Beedle (2008) found that approximately 70 percent of the survey participants in North Carolina believed paddling to be a viable form of economic development. Heritage Tourism Heritage tourism sites can provide a variety of benefits to the regions in which they are located. These benefits include creating jobs, adding economic activity, attracting visitors who are interested in history, preserving cultural and regional traditions, supporting historic preservation, providing educational opportunities, and building pride in regional heritage (Figure 8). Education Heritage tourism can provide important historical and cultural educational opportunities for a region. Sites can provide venues for school and other tours to learn about the history and culture of an area and its inhabitants. Jobs Economic Growth Health Water Trail Benefits Property Values Recreation River Conservation Figure 7. Potential Benefits of Water Trails 15

24 Recreation Several sources suggest that heritage tourists may be older and more educated than other types of tourists. Furthermore, these tourists tend to stay longer and spend more money than other types of tourists (US Department of Commerce 2005). Jobs Education Recreation Historic Preservation Tourism can help support not just preservation of natural resources, but also historic and cultural resources such as the built environment and local ways of life that attract visitors to a destination. To provide a sustained positive experience for tourists means preservation of historic and cultural assets for the region (US Department of Commerce 2005). Figure 8. Benefits of Heritage Tourism Regional Pride Because each region must determine its own unique offerings for traveler experiences based upon its own regional distinctive and cultural assets (US Department of Commerce 2005), developing these assets can be a source of regional pride. Economic Growth Economic growth from heritage tourism can result from both investments in historic preservation and maintenance and it can also result from heritage travelers expenditures. A Georgia Department of Natural Resources (2010) study indicated that heritage tourism in Georgia generates expenditures of $6.15 billion (2010$). Jobs Jobs from historical and heritage tourism can come through several avenues. First, jobs are added through the process of historical preservation and the associated investments. Expenditures for inputs add jobs at the suppliers business and salaries paid allow those individuals to purchase goods and services which also increase the number of jobs in an economy. Supporting Businesses and Potential Growth With An ONP&P For the purpose of this analysis, Tier 1 counties are those that would include some portion of the ONP&P (Bibb, Bleckley, Houston, Pulaski, and Twiggs). Tier 2 counties are those additional nearby gateway counties that border the Tier 1 counties (Baldwin, Crawford, Dodge, Dooly, Jones, Laurens, Macon, Monroe, Peach, Wilcox, and Wilkins). Current business establishments believed to support recreational activities for the counties in which the ONP&P will reside directly (Tier 1) and gateway counties (Tier 2) are listed in Table 3 along with their North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code. For the ten year timeframe between 2004 through 2013, the largest average numbers of establishments for the 16 county study area ONP&P counties, were for limited service restaurants (422.5), followed by full service restaurants (327.5), hotels and motels (151.0), retail or sporting goods outfitters (35.9), drinking places (28.3), other amusement and recreational industries (15.2), recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds (7.2), other traveler accommodations (6.3), room and boarding houses (2.2), and recreational goods rentals (1.9). 16 Economic Growth Heritage Tourism Benefits Regional Pride Historic Preservation

25 Table 3. Visitor Activities and Types of Support Establishments Activity Industry NAICS Description and Code Drinking Places (alcoholic beverages) (NAICS 7224), Full service restaurants Eating Out (NAICS ), Limited service restaurants (NAICS ) Hotels/motels (NAICS ); other traveler accommodations such as bed and Lodging breakfast, tourist homes, and guest houses (NAICS 72119); recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds (NAICS 7212); room and boarding houses (NAICS 7213) Outfitter or new retail sporting goods stores offering not only bicycles and bicycle parts and camping equipment but also exercise/fitness equipment, sports Buying Equipment footwear and apparel, plus other sporting goods, equipment, and accessories (NAICS ) Recreational goods rentals that offer not only bicycle and canoe rentals but also Renting Equipment other recreational equipment (NAICS ) Other Amusement & Other amusement and recreational industries such as amusement parks/arcades, Recreational golf courses, marinas, fitness and recreational sports centers, and bowling centers Industries (NAICS ) Likewise, for employees for this same timeframe, the largest average numbers of employees were for limited service restaurants (8,507.3), followed by full service restaurants (7,826.4), hotels and motels (1,743.1), retail or sporting goods outfitters (466.7), drinking places (213.6), other amusement and recreational industries (67.7), other traveler accommodations (40.0), recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds (30.0), room and boarding houses (10.0), and recreational goods rental (6.9). From the ONP&P Chamber of Commerce county search for potential bike, canoe, and or kayak rentals; outfitters; and camping supplies stores, one new outfitter named Oconee Outfitters ( located in Milledgeville in Baldwin County was identified. This outfitter establishment offers bikes, kayaks, and paddle board equipment. In addition, an expedition business named Ocmulgee Outdoor Expeditions, LLC ( outdoorexpeditions.com/) offers canoe and kayak rentals for floating down the Ocmulgee River. For the most recent available numbers of establishments (2013 Censtats) believed to support recreational activities for the affected counties in the proposed ONP&P (Year 1 in Table 4), growth projections per 1,000 visitors are calculated (Table 4). Estimated growth percentages were derived from three other Eastern U.S. national park units (Timucuan, Acadia, Congaree, and Cuyahoga Valley National Parks) surrounding counties growth in these types of establishments over the periods. Most establishments are projected to have positive growth with the estimated largest increases in numbers of establishments for both limited and full service restaurants, hotels and motels, recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds, and retail or sporting goods outfitters. For comparison purposes, growth in these same establishments without an ONP&P designation is also shown in Table 4. Growth percentages for the establishments without the park designation were derived from taking the actual growth of these industries over the ten year period Positive growth, albeit not as robust as with a national park designation, is projected for both limited and full service restaurants, hotels and motels, and recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds. Negative growth is projected for drinking places, retail or sporting goods outfitters, and other amusement and recreational industries. Growths in the remaining industries are expected to remain relatively flat. 17

26 Table 4. Estimated Projected Growth in Establishments Supporting Recreational Activities with an Ocmulgee National Park and Preserve Year Category NAICS With an ONP&P Without an ONP&P Drinking Places Full service restaurants Limited service restaurants Hotels & Motels Other travelers accommodations RV camps & campgrounds Room/boarding houses Retail or sporting goods outfitters Recreational goods rentals Other amusement & recreational industries Bed and breakfasts, tourist homes, guest houses, etc. 2Bicycles and bicycle parts; camping equipment; exercise and fitness equipment; athletic uniforms; specialty sports footwear; and sporting goods, equipment, and accessories 3Rentals of recreational goods such as bicycles, canoes/kayaks, motorcycles, skis, sailboats, beach chairs, and beach umbrellas 4Establishments that are amusement parks/arcades; gambling industries; golf courses and country clubs; skiing facilities; marinas; fitness and recreational sports centers; and bowling centers Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns Year 18

27 Changes in Visitation Several pieces of information are needed to project how visitor expenditures economically impact the study area. First, an overall projection of the numbers of visitors is needed under each park growth scenario. Second, the primary activities of visitors and numbers of visitors participating in this primary activity must be projected. This information is needed, for example, because heritage tourists likely spend differently than outdoor recreation tourists. Second, the share of local versus non local users must be estimated across the tourists and activity type. This is important, since non local visitors will spend differently (for example, lodging) than local visitors. Ten peer parks primarily located in the eastern U.S. (except for Big Ten Peer Parks Visitor History Big Cypress National Preserve (FL) Big Thicket National Preserve (TX) Chattahoochee River National Recreation Area (GA) Chesapeake and Ohio Canal National Historical Park (MD, WV, DC) Congaree National Park (SC) Cuyahoga Valley National Park (OH) Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area (NJ, PA) New River Gorge National River (WV) St. Croix National Scenic Riverway (WI) Timucuan Ecological and Historical Park (FL) Growth Rate Measure Median 25% Centile 75% Centile Average Annual Growth 8.81% 7.00% 12.74% Average Annual Growth 21.73% 13.52% 23.29% First 10 Years Average Annual Growth 3.92% 3.32% 5.33% After 10 Years Growth Comparing Year 1 and Year % % % Thicket National Preserve in Texas) were selected based on certain shared similarities with an ONP&P, such as size, the nature of the cultural/natural/ historic resources they offer, their available recreational activities, or their proximity to urban populations. These peer parks were then used as proxies for an ONP&P in making projections of future growth in visitation. The median growth rate was used as the Medium growth, while the 25 th and 75 th percentile growth rates were used as the Low and High growth rates in visitors. The No ONP&P scenario was based on the historical visitor growth rate of the Ocmulgee National Monument. Assumed growth rates differed for the first 10 years and after the first ten years. More detail is outlined in Projected Business Additions and Changes in Operating Budgets for the Proposed Ocmulgee National Park and Preserve. Under the Medium scenario estimated visitors range from 185,899 in 2016 for the ONP&P to 1.37 million in year 2031 (Table 5). For the No ONP&P scenario, the number of visitors is projected to grow to 207,607, for the High scenario visitors are projected to grow to 1.69 million, and for the Low scenario to 660,489 by Table 5. Estimated Numbers of Visitors by Scenario Projected for: Scenario No ONP&P 148, , , , ,607 Proposed ONP&P: Medium 148, , ,911 1,133,964 1,374,653 High 148, , ,292 1,305,082 1,692,005 Low 148, , , , ,489 Some of the more popular recreational activities projected for the proposed ONP&P include bicycling, canoeing/kayaking, camping, fishing, hiking, horseback riding, historical and heritage tourism, hunting, and wildlife watching. The proportions and numbers of visitors potentially 19

28 participating in these recreational activities for 2016, 2021, 2026, and 2031 are incorporated into Table 6 for the Medium, High, Low, and No ONP&P visitor s scenarios. These proportions are primarily based on previous research on Georgia s resource management areas (Southwick Associates, Inc & Responsive Management 2014). Adjusted values were used since it is likely if the multiuse and water trails were further developed, these numbers of users would likely grow at a faster rate and the shares would change. See the document, Projected Business Additions and Changes in Operating Budgets for the Proposed Ocmulgee National Park and Preserve for more detail about visitor calculations. As you increase from Low to Medium and High scenarios, changes in the participation of some of the recreational activities are assumed. For instance, the number of hunters is assumed to stay constant in the Low scenario compared with the No ONP&P scenario and therefore the hunting activity share drops from 1.10% to 0.84%. Compared with the No ONP&P scenario, bicycling recreational visitors activity increases from 3.10% to 15.33% in the Medium and High scenarios. Compared with the No ONP&P scenario, where paddling is assumed to be 1.30% of the visitors, paddling increases to 6.48% of visitors in both the Medium and High scenarios. The other shares are assumed to remain constant with the exception of historical/heritage tourism, which drops from 82.8% to 65.64% as other popular activity areas of the park grow in relative terms. The next component of determining visitor expenditures is to allocate each type of activity into local/non local visitors. In estimating the visitor shares for each activity type, several sources were used. Southwick Associates, Inc & Responsive Management study of Georgia s WMA s (2014) estimates that about 94% of Georgia s sportsman 1 were local and is assumed for the hunting activity. This percent is also used for horseback riding due to the need to transport and board horses if camping overnight. A study of visitors to Congaree National Park (Samuelson, Le, and Hollenhorst 2011) showed that about 67% of the visitors came from areas outside the surrounding counties, while 33% came from local counties. This share is applied to camping, fishing, hiking, and wildlife watching. The cycling and paddling shares are based upon prior studies for the No ONP&P scenario (54% local/46% non local and 53% local/47% non local, respectively) and park information for several historical/heritage tourism studies are used to estimate the shares for the ONM (33% local/67% non local) for the heritage visitors. After an ONP&P formation, these shares for cycling and heritage visitors are assumed to rise to 67% and are predominantly non local. The shares of non local visitors from prior studies for multiuse trails, water trails, and historical/heritage parks and their averages are incorporated into the information in Table 6. Next, estimates of how much time or length of stay each visitor type might spend within the study area is needed. Results regarding average annual days per participant from the study of Georgia WMA s by Southwick was used for local and non local visitors by activity type other than historical/heritage tourism (Table 7). Currently the average stay of individuals visiting the Monument is about one and a half hours. While ONM visitors stay about an hour and a half, heritage tourism literature suggests these visitors likely stay a day when additional heritage tourism opportunities exist. 1 License holders with WMA privileges or a Georgia Outdoor Recreational Pass (GORP) holder. 20

29 Table 6. Estimated Visitors by Type of Activity, Local and Non Local Bicycling Non Scenario Year Local Local Canoeing/ kayaking Camping Fishing Hiking Non Non Non Non Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Local Horseback Riding Non Local Local Historical/ Heritage Non Local Local Hunting Non Local Local Wildlife Watching Non Local Local 54.00% 46.00% 53.00% 47.00% 33.00% 67.00% 33.00% 67.00% 33.00% 67.00% 94.00% 6.00% 33.00% 67.00% 94.00% 6.00% 33.00% 67.00% No ONP&P ,782 2,005 4,782 4,473 3,702 1, ,723 1,697 4, ,255 4,782 2,005 4,782 4,473 3,702 1, ,723 1, ,280 2,214 5,280 4,939 4,087 1, ,017 1,873 4, ,310 5,280 2,214 5,280 4,939 4,087 1, ,017 1, ,829 2,444 5,829 5,453 4,513 1, ,694 2,068 4, ,036 5,829 2,444 5,829 5,453 4,513 1, ,694 2, ,436 2,699 6,436 6,021 4,983 1, ,898 2,284 5, ,607 6,436 2,699 6,436 6,021 4,983 1, ,898 2, % 67.00% 33.00% 67.00% 33.00% 67.00% 33.00% 67.00% 33.00% 67.00% 94.00% 6.00% 33.00% 67.00% 94.00% 6.00% 33.00% 67.00% Medium ,490 12,055 5,763 5,391 4,462 1, ,016 1,569 4, ,899 28,490 12,055 5,763 5,391 4,462 1, ,016 1, ,154 32,223 15,404 14,410 11,926 3, ,152 4,194 12, ,911 76,154 32,223 15,404 14,410 11,926 3, ,152 4, ,786 73,533 35,153 32,885 27,215 7, ,287 9,570 29,596 1,133, ,786 73,533 35,153 32,885 27,215 7, ,287 9, ,673 89,141 42,614 39,865 32,992 9, ,266 11,602 35,878 1,374, ,673 89,141 42,614 39,865 32,992 9, ,266 11, High ,854 12,209 5,837 5,460 4,519 1, ,577 1,589 4, ,277 28,854 12,209 5,837 5,460 4,519 1, ,577 1, ,190 34,776 16,625 15,552 12,871 3, ,000 4,526 13, ,292 82,190 34,776 16,625 15,552 12,871 3, ,000 4, ,011 84,629 40,458 37,847 31,322 9, ,602 11,014 34,063 1,305, ,011 84,629 40,458 37,847 31,322 9, ,602 11, , ,720 52,452 49,068 40,608 11,844 1,110,562 14,280 44,161 1,692, , ,720 52,452 49,068 40,608 11,844 1,110,562 14,280 Low ,569 11,242 5,374 5,028 4,161 1, ,789 1,463 4, ,365 26,569 11,242 5,374 5,028 4,161 1, ,789 1, ,096 21,197 10,133 9,479 7,845 2, ,549 2,759 8, ,878 50,096 21,197 10,133 9,479 7,845 2, ,549 2, ,967 36,375 17,389 16,267 13,463 3, ,177 4,734 14, ,938 85,967 36,375 17,389 16,267 13,463 3, ,177 4, ,224 42,830 20,475 19,154 15,852 4, ,518 5,574 17, , ,224 42,830 20,475 19,154 15,852 4, ,518 5,574 21

30 Table 7. Estimated Annual Average Days Per Participant for each Recreational Activity for the Proposed ONP&P Activity Local Non Local Bicycling Canoeing/kayaking Camping Fishing Hiking Horseback Riding Historical/Heritage Hunting Wildlife Watching Source: Southwick Associates, Inc & Responsive Management 2014 Economic Impact Analysis The economic impacts from three sources associated with ONP&P formation are examined. First, the one time construction/investment impacts, second, the changes in operating budgets for the park, and, three, the changes from visitor expenditure growth are each projected. One time Construction/Investment Impacts Construction Multiuse Trail Based on estimates from Cranston Engineering (2015) for construction costs to expand the Amerson Riverside Connector Trail and the Walnut Creek Extension in Macon, overall construction costs are $3.3 million in 2016$ (Table 8). The estimates per mile for constructing these 3.23 miles of additional trails are $1.0 million in 2016$. If the Ocmulgee Heritage Trail (multiuse) was expanded an additional 11 miles (22 mile total with existing trails), the costs are estimated to be around $11.3 million (2016$). Table 8. Estimated Costs of Expansion of Ocmulgee Heritage Trail Based on Amerson & Walnut Creek Construction Costs by Cranston Engineering Amerson & Walnut Creek 11 Mile Extension Assigned IMPLAN Sector Category Base Bid (2015$) Costs/ Mile (2015$) Share of Costs Total Projected Costs (%) (2015$) (2016$) a 58 Concrete Sidewalk & Trails $1,107,212 $342, $3,770,692 $3,863, Storm Sewer $33,066 $10, $112,609 $115, Erosion Control $253,578 $78, $863,578 $884, Pedestrian Bridge $565,000 $174, $1,924,149 $1,971, Signage $10,000 $3, $34,056 $34, Grassing $16,680 $5, $56,805 $58, Site Furnishings $55,750 $17, $189,861 $194, Other $300,302 $92, $1,022,700 $1,047,761 Temporary Access Road 58 Construction $457,953 $141, $1,559,592 $1,597, Surveying Design $136,975 $42, $466,478 $476, Contingency $302,852 $93, $1,031,384 $1,056,658 Total $3,239,368 $1,002,900 $11,031,904 $11,300,926 agdp deflators located in IMPLAN 2013 Data Base 22

31 Construction Water Trail An eight hour paddle day would result in about 16 miles of canoe/kayak travel. Hence, having distances greater than 16 miles between launches would create a disincentive for many potential users, such as novice and intermediate level paddlers. One opportunity for additional development along the water trail might be a launch between the Spring Street and Bullard launches (See Table 2). Additionally, six of the parking areas are unpaved, usually grassy areas without gravel or pavement. These might be paved for easier access. In order to encourage overnight stays, camping might be available every 16 miles of water trail (8 hour paddle day). Currently, camping is available at James Dyke Park (61.7 river miles from Macon), Mile Branch (75.5miles), and Sandy Hammock (89.7 miles). For a 100 mile stretch of river, assuming 16 miles of paddling per day, this would suggest about six stops along the water trail for camping, while currently there are three. Restrooms are another amenity that could be further developed. Currently three sites have restrooms, with two sites using portable toilets. Assuming paddlers need a restroom every four hours and paddle about two miles per hour, restrooms might be available every eight miles or so. On a 100 mile stretch, this would be about eight restroom facilities. Currently, restroom facilities are available at Amerson Park and Spring Street in the Macon area and Mile Branch (75.5 miles). Hence, an additional five additional restroom facility sites might be added. Because the James Dyke Park landing is at the Ocmulgee WMA, additional future hiking trails might be developed in this area. Also, since the Knowles Landing is adjacent to a 170 acre greenspace according to the Middle Georgia Regional Commission (2011), a walking trail might be developed here. The Middle Georgia Regional Commission (2011) suggested that due to a 170 acre greenspace that is adjacent and maintained by the county, that Knowles Landing might have further tent camping area development, with composting toilets installed, lock up facilities for kayaks, covered shelters, and tables. In total, 1 new landing site, 7 paved parking areas, 3 camping areas, and 5 restroom areas might be added. The feasibility study by the Middle Georgia Regional Commission (2011) suggested that the Bullard Landing, Knowles, Uchee Shoals, Mile Branch, and Sandy Hammock access sites be given additional signage and informational kiosks (map, leave no trace guidelines). Hence, additional signage might be needed at sites outside the Macon area, which includes 11 current access points, and one new one. According to the Georgia River Network (2015), to construct canoe/kayak launches entails the following budgeted costs: land acquisition for the launch sites, construction of the launch site, equipment rental, permits, consultants, labor, signage, and a parking area. The Bond Swamp National Wildlife Refuge Comprehensive Conservation Plan (US Fish and Wildlife 2009) suggests there could be potential for a partnership with Georgia Department of Natural Resources (DNR) to locate a public boat ramp on refuge lands at Bondsview Road (See Figure 9). Access to the Bond Swamp National Refuge could provide additional parking, information kiosks, as well as over four miles of hiking trails. In addition, the Brown s Mount Environmental Education Center is adjacent. Brown s Mount is a contributing property to the Ocmulgee Old Fields, a traditional cultural property associated with the ancestral culture of the Muscogee Creek people (US Fish and Wildlife Service, Brown s Mount Website). 23

32 Potential costs of water trail improvements are shown in Table 9. Per unit, per site, and across the number of sites needed for each type of modification or suggested improvement are provided. Sources are footnoted at the bottom of the table. Improvements are estimated at just over $379, $. This does not include costs of potential additional land acquisition or rental costs. Table 9. Estimated Cost Estimates for Ocmulgee Water Trail Improvements Cost Category IMPLAN Sectors & Description Size Cost/ Unit Cost/ Site Sites Needed Concrete Boat 58 Construction of other new nonresidential Launch structures 700 sq. ft $13/sq. ft $9,100 1 Asphalt Parking 20 cars Signage Figure 9. Bond Swamp National Refuge and Potential Ocmulgee River Access (Source: US Fish and Wildlife Service. Bond Swamp National Refuge Website) 58 Construction of other new nonresidential structures 7,000 linear ft (lf) $2.8/lf $19, Construction of other new nonresidential structures $1, Waste management and remediation services (portable $6,000/unit/ toilet rental/servicing) 2 units** yr. $12,000 8 Restroom 58 Construction of other new nonresidential structures Campsite Design Consulting 12 campsites 24 $1,800/ campsite $21,600 3 Total Total (2016$) $9,100 (2008$) $10,329 $137,200 (2008$) $155,726 $12,000 (2008$) $13,620 $96,000 (2015$) $97,608 $64,800 (2010$) $75, Architectural engineering and related services 7% total $4,765 $24,018 $26,527 Total $379,395 ** 4 units assumed at campsites Sources: Tent pad, fire ring, table costs for campsite (US Bureau of Land Management 2010); launch, parking signage costs; (Smith 2008); commercial services for portable restrooms rental per month. The estimated total economic activity impacts from construction of the multiuse and water trails totals nearly $17.9 ( ) million with multiplier effects, with the majority of coming from a multiuse trail (Table 10). In total with multiplier effects (Total), 132 jobs (128+4) would be added, and additional labor income would be over $5.2 ( ) million. Total value added would accrue to nearly $7.7 ( ) million, while taxes would be over $1.6 million.

33 Table 10. Estimated One Time Economic Impacts from Multiuse and Water Trail Construction and Improvements, Impact Type Employment Labor Income Value Added Economic Activity Multiuse Trail (2016$) Direct Effect 73.7 $3,090,468 $3,920,386 $10,982,839 Taxes Total Effect $5,017,331 $7,400,696 $17,347,721 $1,589,413 Water Trail (2016$) Direct Effect 2.2 $103,776 $138,646 $359,851 Total Effect 4.0 $167,876 $253,271 $570,372 $53,794 For economic activity, the top five sectors impacted as a result of construction of the multiuse trail are construction of other new nonresidential structures; architectural, engineering, and related services; wholesale trade; owner occupied dwellings; and real estate. For the water trail, the top five sectors impacted are construction of other new nonresidential structures; waste management and remediation services; architectural, engineering, and related services; wholesale trade; and owner occupied dwellings. Annual Operating Costs Annual operating costs are derived from the third document in this study series, Project Component III and IV: Projected New Business Additions and Changes in Operating Budgets between the Baseline and National Park & Preserve Scenarios. The estimated operating budget for the focal lands is $1.55 million (Table 11). Table 11. Overall Operating Budgets for 2014 for the Study Area Focal Public Lands within the proposed ONP&P Focal Public Land 2014 Operating Budget Bond Swamp NWR $93,812 Echeconnee Creek Natural Area $8,078 Ocmulgee Wildlife Management Area $95,480 Oaky Woods Wildlife Management Area $68,076 Ocmulgee National Monument $1,280,000 Total $1,545,446 The Medium annual operating budget for an ONP&P is shown in Table 12. Several IMPLAN sectors would be impacted. Assignment of budgeted costs to each of these sectors was made upon the basis of the description of these sectors and how well they matched with the costs that might be incurred under that budget category. These same categories are also used for the No ONP&P and High scenarios. An overview of the total budget over time is displayed in Figure 10. For 2031, the difference between the High and No ONP&P scenarios budget is $15.4 million. 25

34 Table 12. Estimated Medium Projected Operating Budget for the Proposed ONP&P for Years 2014, 2016, 2021, 2026, and 2031 and Associated IMPLAN Industry Codes Budget Category IMPLAN Sectors and Description Total $1,545,446 $1,937,722 $5,179,571 $11,819,917 $14,328,746 Personnel Costs: Personnel Comp Employee Compensation $976,563 $1,224,442 $3,272,958 $7,468,976 $9,054,298 Benefits Employee Compensation $271,545 $340,470 $910,084 $2,076,836 $2,517,653 Non Personnel Costs: Travel 408 Air Transportation Services $21,756 $27,279 $72,917 $166,398 $201,717 Transport 402 & 411 Retail Services Gasoline Stores; Truck Transportation Services $5,076 $6,365 $17,014 $38,826 $47,067 Real estate buying & selling, leasing, managing, & related Rental Payments 440 services $47,864 $60,013 $160,417 $366,076 $443,777 Communications Electricity Transmission & Distribution, Natural Gas Distribution, Water, Sewage & Other Systems; Wireless and Utilities 49,50, 51, 428 Telecommunications $16,680 $20,914 $55,903 $127,572 $154,649 Business Support Services Printing 465 (copying) $5,076 $6,365 $17,014 $38,826 $47,067 Architectural, engineering, & related services; Environmental & other technical consulting Services 449, 455 services $74,697 $93,657 $250,358 $571,300 $692,560 Facilities Maintenance 468 Services to Buildings $21,031 $26,369 $70,486 $160,851 $194,993 Equip Maintenance 507 Supplies 405, 406 Equipment 396, 398 Land and Structures 57, 440 Commercial & Industrial Machinery & Equipment Repair & Maintenance $11,603 $14,549 $38,889 $88,746 $107,582 Retail Services General Merchandise Stores; Retail Services Miscellaneous Store Retailers $51,490 $64,560 $172,570 $393,809 $477,396 Retail Services Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers; Retail Services Electronics & appliance Stores $24,657 $30,916 $82,639 $188,584 $228,612 Newly constructed commercial structures, including farm structures; Real estate buying & selling, leasing, managing, & related services $17,405 $21,823 $58,333 $133,118 $161,373 26

35 $20 Projected ONP&P Operating Million $ $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $17.6 $14.3 $6.9 "No ONP&P" "Medium" "High" "Low" $12.1 mil. $2 $0 $2.2 $ Year Figure 10. Projected Overall Operating Budgets for ONP&P, by Scenario, (2016$) The estimated employment impacts from park operations not including those hired directly from park operation range from 2 direct jobs in 2016 in the No Park scenario to 127 jobs in 2031 with multiplier effects for the High scenario (Table 13). The number of total jobs added 2, including multiplier effects, with the Medium scenario rise to 103 in 2031 from their projected value of 14 in Labor income ranges from $1.4 million directly in 2016 with No ONP&P to $19.1 million in 2031 with multiplier effects for the High scenario. Under the Medium scenario, labor income is projected to rise to $15.5 million in With No ONP&P, value added in 2031 is projected at $2.8 million, while with the park under the High scenario, the value added is projected at $22. million in Under the Medium scenario, value added is projected to rise to $18.3 million in For economic activity (total industry output), the values range from $2.5 million direct with No ONP&P in 2016 to $28.5 million with multiplier effects in 2031 under the High scenario. Given the Medium scenario, economic activity with multiplier effects (total) is projected at $17.1 million in Taxes are estimated at $0.17 million in 2016 with No ONP&P, but with the park, under the High scenario, taxes would increase to over $1.8 million. The top five sectors impacted from annual operations of the park based on economic activity under each of the scenarios are owner occupied dwellings; real estate; architectural, engineering, and related services; hospitals; and insurance carriers. 2 In the economic impact analysis of the annual operating budget, knowledge existed on how much personnel costs would change, but not on the numbers of jobs created. Consequently, the number of jobs created is under reported. The financial impact, however, is contained in the direct impact in labor income, value added, and economic activity. 27

36 Table 13. Estimated Economic Impacts from Park Operations, a Medium High Low No ONP&P 2016 Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total Employment Labor Income $1,730,692 $2,096,808 $1,752,831 $2,123,631 $1,614,002 $1,955,434 $1,436,09 2 $1,739,88 8 Value Added $1,774,494 $2,472,960 $1,797,194 $2,504,595 $1,654,851 $2,306,224 $1,472,43 8 $2,052,01 1 Economic Activity $1,880,678 $3,127,560 $1,904,736 $3,167,568 $1,753,876 $2,916,689 $1,560,54 8 $2,595,18 5 Taxes $203,212 $205,812 $189,511 $168, Employment Labor Income $4,626,172 $5,604,807 $4,992,804 $6,048,998 $3,043,185 $3,686,95 0 $1,585,56 1 $1,920,975 Value Added $4,743,257 $6,610,270 $5,119,169 $7,134,146 $3,120,205 $4,348,36 2 $1,625,69 0 $2,265,585 Economic Activity $5,027,089 $8,360,027 $5,425,495 $9,022,574 $3,306,916 $5,499,38 6 $1,722,97 0 $2,865,291 Taxes $543,187 $586,236 $357,319 $186, Employment Labor Income $10,557,04 6 $12,790,31 6 $11,988,00 5 $14,523,98 5 $5,252,748 $6,363,93 1 $1,783,62 1 $2,160,933 Value Added $10,824,23 7 $15,084,80 8 $12,291,41 3 $17,129,48 4 $5,385,691 $7,505,57 5 $1,828,76 3 $2,548,589 Economic Activity $11,471,94 6 $19,077,79 7 $13,026,91 6 $21,663,70 5 $5,707,964 $9,492,32 0 $1,938,19 4 $3,223,208 Taxes $1,239,572 $1,407,590 $616,760 $209, Employment Labor Income $12,797,82 3 $15,505,11 3 $15,752,32 4 $19,084,61 8 $6,149,063 $7,449,85 4 $1,932,79 0 $2,341,658 Value Added $13,121,72 7 $18,286,62 1 $16,151,00 4 $22,508,26 4 $6,304,691 $8,786,30 5 $1,981,70 7 $2,761,735 Economic Activity $13,906,91 4 $23,127,13 7 $17,117,45 9 $28,466,26 0 $6,681,955 $11,112,0 63 $2,100,29 0 $3,492,773 Taxes $1,502,673 $1,849,580 $722,000 $226,941 a All dollar values are in 2016$ Visitor Spending Impacts Visitor Expenditures Projections Per Visitor spending (in dollars) by activity and whether local versus nonlocal is shown in Table 14. Cycling recreational spending per visitor is based upon Bowker, Bergstrom, and Gill (2004a). Paddler recreational spending per visitor is based upon Bowker, Bergstrom, and Gill (2004b). Horseback riding per visitor is based upon Venegas (2009), while heritage tourist spending per visitor is based upon Stynes (2006). The remaining categories are based upon Southwick Associates, Inc & Responsive Management (2014). 28

37 29 Table 14. Estimated Annual Spending per Visitor for the ONP&P (2016$) Bicycling Canoeing/ Kayaking Camping Fishing Hiking Local Horseback Riding Historical/ Heritage Hunting Wildlife Watching Groceries and snacks $11.52 $ $ $ $ $76.84 $9.85 $ $ Food and drink at a restaurant $70.50 $74.34 $31.06 $67.87 $53.26 $12.97 $18.08 $58.55 $48.30 Fuel and oil for autos, boats, etc. $33.21 $ $ $ $ $ $12.52 $ $ Public transportation (bus, taxi, airfare, etc.) $0.06 $0.00 $0.00 $0.23 $0.10 $6.04 $0.60 $0.84 $0.43 Lodging $27.90 $8.70 $11.97 $71.11 $43.60 $43.57 $1.02 $24.10 $40.83 Vehicle/equipment rental $23.84 $12.17 $0.00 $3.99 $6.24 $0.37 $0.00 $0.92 $0.00 Guide fees $19.70 $23.63 $0.00 $4.23 $2.11 $0.00 $0.00 $3.20 $0.00 Other fees (launch/mooring fees, etc.) $0.25 $15.06 $1.51 $11.52 $13.34 $0.00 $0.00 $4.84 $8.16 Bait for fishing $0.00 $15.53 $16.50 $86.49 $14.01 $0.00 $0.00 $24.26 $14.39 Ammunition $0.00 $75.70 $29.97 $59.28 $41.80 $0.00 $0.00 $ $24.68 Souvenirs $0.00 $26.32 $1.64 $7.93 $6.37 $0.00 $10.29 $1.18 $11.42 Meat processor/cooler $0.00 $36.63 $ $29.75 $15.91 $0.00 $0.00 $98.97 $39.11 Entertainment (movies, nightclub, etc.) $0.00 $0.00 $2.59 $4.09 $1.33 $1.85 $7.54 $2.00 $1.01 Other trip related spending $2.49 $18.84 $0.95 $13.38 $4.13 $68.84 $0.00 $5.70 $0.67 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ $59.90 $ $ Nonlocal Groceries and snacks $41.19 $ $ $ $ $59.93 $18.29 $ $98.43 Food and drink at a restaurant $ $67.25 $28.10 $61.38 $48.17 $10.11 $39.07 $52.99 $43.70 Fuel and oil for autos, boats, etc. $81.14 $ $ $ $ $79.92 $21.98 $ $ Public transportation (bus, taxi, airfare, etc.) $3.45 $0.00 $0.00 $0.18 $0.08 $4.71 $3.41 $0.78 $0.37 Lodging $ $7.90 $10.84 $64.34 $39.45 $33.99 $60.88 $21.81 $36.95 Vehicle/equipment rental $25.13 $11.04 $0.00 $3.58 $5.67 $0.29 $0.00 $0.84 $0.00 Guide fees $29.17 $21.34 $0.00 $3.83 $1.88 $0.00 $0.00 $2.86 $0.00 Other fees (launch/mooring fees, etc.) $0.00 $13.66 $1.35 $10.43 $12.09 $0.00 $0.00 $4.39 $7.38 Bait for fishing $0.00 $14.06 $14.94 $78.30 $12.67 $0.00 $0.00 $21.93 $13.02 Ammunition $0.00 $68.50 $27.10 $53.62 $37.83 $0.00 $0.00 $ $22.32 Souvenirs $0.00 $23.83 $1.49 $7.21 $5.74 $0.00 $19.90 $1.10 $10.34 Meat processor/cooler $0.00 $33.14 $ $26.95 $14.38 $0.00 $0.00 $89.55 $35.38 Entertainment (movies, nightclub, etc.) $0.00 $0.00 $2.32 $3.72 $1.19 $1.44 $15.23 $1.80 $0.91 Other trip related spending $24.18 $17.09 $0.87 $12.08 $3.74 $53.69 $0.00 $5.14 $0.64 Total $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

38 Before the economic impacts for the various scenarios are estimated, visitor expenditure categories (for example, groceries, fuel, lodging, and other supplies and services) need to be assigned to IMPLAN s sectors (Table 15). The visitor expenditures for each activity and whether the expenditures were local or nonlocal are multiplied by the number of visitors in that category to get overall expenditures. Once these overall expenditures are calculated, this information is entered in IMPLAN to obtain economic impact estimates. 3 Table 15. Assigned IMPLAN Sector for Recreational Visitors Expenditures IMPLAN Expenditure Items Sector Description Groceries & snacks 400 Retail Services Food & Beverage Stores Food & drink at a restaurant Full Service Restaurants; Limited Service Restaurants Fuel & oil for autos, boats, etc. 402 Retail Services Gasoline Stores Public transportation (bus, taxi, airfare, etc.) 412 & 414 Transit & Ground Transportation Services; Scenic & Sightseeing Transportation Services Lodging Hotels & Motels; Other Accommodation Services Vehicle/equipment rental Automotive Equipment Rental & Leasing Services; General & Consumer Goods Rental Services Guide fees 496 Other Amusement & Recreation Other fees (launch/mooring fees, etc.) 496 Other Amusement & Recreation Retail Services Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument & Bait 404 Book Stores Retail Services Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument & Book Stores Ammunition 404 Souvenirs 406 Retail Services Miscellaneous Store Retailers Meat processor/cooler 400 Retail Services Food & Beverage Stores Entertainment 503 All Other Food & Drinking Places Other Trip Related Spending 403 & 405 Retail Services Clothing & Clothing Accessory Stores; Retail Services Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument & Book Stores Economic Impacts of Visitor Expenditures Under the Medium scenario, the estimated total economic activity impacts from visitor expenditures totals over $28 million in 2016, increasing to $210 million by 2031 (Table 16), which supports 415 jobs in 2016 and increases to 3,067 jobs in For comparison purposes, the National Park Services reported total visitor spending for the Ocmulgee National Monument at $6.8 million with 118 jobs supported in 2014 (National Park Service, 2015). Taxes generated from this projected economic activity would increase from $4.3 million in 2016 to $32 million in 2031 ( Medium scenario). As would be expected, visitor estimates change under the High and Low scenarios, resulting in estimated economic impact changes. Economic impacts in 2016 range from almost $29 million in the High scenario to $26 million in the Low scenario. If No ONP&P is formed, the regional economic impact for 2016 is estimated at $17.2 million ( No ONP&P scenario) and increases to an estimated $23.2 million in Additional details about the economic impacts are provided in the document, An Analysis of Potential Economic Impacts from the Proposed Ocmulgee National Park and Preserve Project Components I: Projections of Economic Activity under a Baseline Scenario and Project Component II: Projections of 3 This analysis uses the local purchase percentages (LPP) option available in IMPLAN modeling, which affects the impact value applied to multipliers. Instead of a 100 percent expenditure value applied to the multiplier, the model is set to the value which reflects the study regions purchases. 30

39 Economic Activity under a National Park and Preserve Scenario). For all scenarios, the top five industries impacted based on economic activity are limited service restaurants; full service restaurants; food and beverage stores; sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and book stores; and all other food and drinking places. Table 16. Estimated Economic Impacts from Visitors Expenditures, a Scenarios Impact Type Medium High Low No ONP&P Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total 2016 Employment Labor Income $6,691,839 $9,625,667 $6,777,400 $9,748,740 $6,124,559 $8,808,819 $4,078,149 $5,870,249 Value Added $9,951,226 $15,647,876 $10,078,457 $15,847,944 $9,118,289 $14,332,001 $5,122,238 $8,117,230 Economic Activity $17,966,141 $28,441,426 $18,195,848 $28,805,069 $16,441,211 $26,027,195 $9,337,277 $14,852,966 Taxes $4,332,777 $4,388,174 $3,968,775 $2,256, Employment , , Labor Income $17,887,364 $25,729,520 $19,304,868 $27,768,490 $11,547,747 $16,608,873 $4,502,687 $6,481,345 Value Added $26,599,741 $41,826,957 $28,707,654 $45,141,576 $17,192,371 $27,022,733 $6,558,689 $10,393,578 Economic Activity $48,023,684 $76,024,244 $51,829,458 $82,048,975 $30,999,603 $49,073,804 $11,955,768 $19,018,243 Taxes $11,059,367 $12,499,338 $7,483,056 $2,889, Employment 2, , , , , Labor Income $40,818,597 $58,714,239 $46,978,802 $67,575,193 $19,816,212 $28,501,229 $4,971,250 $7,155,814 Value Added $60,700,017 $95,448,198 $69,860,688 $109,852,954 $29,502,510 $46,371,646 $7,241,204 $11,475,163 Economic Activity $109,589,152 $173,485,847 $126,127,941 $199,667,716 $53,196,107 $84,211,876 $13,199,912 $20,997,329 Taxes $26,428,866 $30,417,438 $12,841,092 $3,190, Employment 2, , , , , , Labor Income $49,483,325 $71,177,744 $60,907,666 $87,610,727 $23,332,913 $33,559,222 $5,488,445 $7,900,286 Value Added $73,585,081 $115,709,405 $90,573,890 $142,423,562 $34,738,188 $54,601,018 $7,994,540 $12,668,987 Economic Activity $132,852,035 $210,312,347 $163,523,832 $258,867,595 $62,636,599 $99,156,603 $14,573,206 $23,181,845 Taxes $32,039,050 $39,435,998 $15,119,947 $3,522,610 a All dollar values are in 2016$ Overall Economic Impacts The total economic activity from year to year expenditures by visitors and park operations rise to $233.4 million by 2031 for the Medium scenario (Figure 11). In comparison, with the No ONP&P scenario total economic activity rises to $26.7 million. The difference, $206.7 million, between these two values represents the projected additions that an ONP&P might bring to the regional economy compared with the focal lands operating as separate units. The difference between the High and No ONP&P scenarios is $260.6 million, while the difference between the Low and No ONP&P scenarios is $83.6 million. 31

40 Economic Activity Million $ Technical Summary -- February 2017 $350.0 $300.0 $250.0 $200.0 $150.0 $100.0 $50.0 $0.0 $287.3 $233.4 $110.3 $19.8 $ "Medium" "High" "Low" "No ONP&P" $206.7 mil. Figure 11. Projected Economic Activity From Visitor Spending and Operating, Jobs added 4 from year to year expenditures by visitors and park operations rise to 3,171 by 2031 for the Medium scenario (Figure 12), compared with the No ONP&P scenario under which total jobs rise to 357. The difference between these two values, 2,814.5, represents the additional jobs that an ONP&P might bring to the regional economy compared with the focal lands operating as separate units. The difference between the High and No ONP&P scenarios is over 3,500, while the difference between the Low and No ONP&P scenarios is about 1,100 jobs. Labor income, which includes the income from the National Park Service as well as the backward linkages that occur and from income generated from increased consumer sales increase from approximately $7.6 million in 2016 to $86.7 million in 2031 assuming the Medium Scenario (Figure 13). This can be compared to the No ONP&P Scenario under which labor income rises to $10.2 million. The difference between these two values, $76 million, represents the additional labor income that an ONP&P might bring to the regional economy compared with the focal lands operating as separate units. The difference between the High and No ONP&P scenarios is $96 million, while the difference between the Low and No ONP&P scenarios is $31 million. Total value added from year to year expenditures by visitors and park operations rises to $134.0 million by 2031 for the Medium scenario (Figure 14), compared with the No ONP&P scenario under which total value added rise to $15.4 million. The difference between these two values, $118.6 million, represents the additional value added that an ONP&P might bring to the regional economy compared with the focal lands operating as separate units. The difference between the High and No ONP&P scenarios is $149 million, while the difference between the Low and No ONP&P scenarios is $48 million. 4 Excluding those working for the national Park Service 32

41 Labor Income Million $ Jobs Technical Summary -- February , , , , , , , , , , ,903.7 "Medium" "High" "Low" "No ONP&P" 2,814 jobs Year Figure 12. Projected Total Jobs Resulting From Visitor Spending and Operating, $120.0 $100.0 $80.0 $106.7 $86.7 "Medium" "High" "Low" "No ONP&P" $60.0 $40.0 $20.0 $41.0 $76.4 mil. $0.0 $7.6 $ Figure 13. Projected Labor Income Resulting from Visitor Spending and Operating, (2016$) 33

42 Tax Revenues Million $ Value Added Million $ Technical Summary -- February 2017 $180.0 $160.0 $140.0 $120.0 $100.0 $80.0 $60.0 $40.0 $20.0 $0.0 $164.9 $134.0 $63.4 $11.5 $ "Medium" "High" "Low" "No ONP&P" $118.6 mil. Figure 14. Projected Value Added Resulting From Visitor Spending and Operating, (2016$) Total tax revenues from year to year expenditures by visitors and park operations rises to $33.5 million by 2031 for the Medium scenario (Figure 12), compared with the No ONP&P scenario under which total tax revenues rise to $3.7 million. The difference between these two $45.0 $40.0 $35.0 $30.0 $25.0 $20.0 $15.0 $10.0 $5.0 $0.0 $41.3 $33.5 $15.8 $2.8 $ "Medium" "High" "Low" "No ONP&P" $29.8 mil. Figure 15. Projected Tax Revenues From Visitor Spending and Operating, (2016$) 34