An Analysis of Potential Economic Impacts from the Proposed Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve

Transcription

1 An Analysis of Potential Economic Impacts from the Proposed Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve Report to National Parks Conservation Association Project Component III: Projections of New Business Additions and Project Component IV: Projections of Changes in Operating Budgets between the Baseline and National Park & Preserve Scenarios by Dr. Burton C. English Dr. Kimberly L. Jensen and Mr. Jamey Menard AIM-AG Agri-Industry Modeling & Analysis Group

2 DISCLAIMER This report was commissioned by the Knight Foundation. The findings and views expressed in this study are those of the authors and may not represent those of Knight Foundation, or the University of Tennessee s Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics or the Institute of Agriculture. All models are limited and actual impacts may differ from estimated impacts. Furthermore, as new data becomes available, the results can be updated accordingly. AIM-AG Agri-Industry Modeling & Analysis Group

3 Executive Summary A consolidated Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve (ONP&P) can be expected attract new businesses to the surrounding communities and counties compared with if the focal area lands are operated separately (Ocmulgee National Monument (ONM), Bond Swamp NR, Echeconnee Creek Natural Area, Ocmulgee WMA, and Oaky Woods WMA). o A consolidated ONP&P should experience greater visitor growth compared with the focal area lands operated separately ( No ONP&P ). o The additional visitors will likely result in additional operating budget for an ONP&P compared with the focal lands being operated separately. This document also provides estimates of changes in visitor numbers and park operating budgets under four scenarios: No ONP&P, Low, Medium, and High visitation scenarios. This document provides estimates of the numbers and kinds of establishments that might result with formation of an ONP&P. o Within the study area, the largest average numbers of establishments from 2004 through 2013 were for limited-service restaurants (422.5), followed by fullservice restaurants (327.5), hotels and motels (151.0), retail or sporting goods outfitters (35.9), drinking places (28.3), other amusement and recreational industries (15.2), recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds (7.2), other traveler accommodations (6.3), room and boarding houses (2.2), and recreational goods rentals (1.9). o For this same time period and establishments monitored for the counties in the proposed ONP&P, recreational goods rental stores, recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds, limited-service restaurants, hotels and motels, room and boarding houses, and full-service restaurants had increased growth, whereas drinking places, other amusement and recreational industries, outfitters or new retail sporting goods stores, and other traveler accommodations had decreased growth. Future values for visitors and operating budgets for Low, Medium, High, and a No ONP&P scenario under which no national park is formed and the focal lands operate as they have been separately into the future. The No ONP&P scenario serves as a baseline. o The values for number of visitors ranged from 207,607 under a No ONP&P scenario to nearly 1.7 million under the High visitation scenario in o Projected values for operating budgets ranged from $2.1 million under a No ONP&P scenario to nearly $17.6 million under the High visitation scenario in Projections of the economic impact that this budget change will have in the region are presented in An Analysis of Potential Economic Impacts from the Proposed Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve (Project Components I and II). i

4 Contents Executive Summary... i Background... 1 Existing Recreational Business Establishments Supporting ONP&P... 1 Projections of New Business Additions... 5 Projections of Changes in Operating Budget between the Baseline and National Park & Preserve Scenario... 6 Changes in Visitation Numbers... 6 Operating Budget Estimates Projected Operating Budget Projections for the Four Scenarios Conclusions References Appendix List of Tables Table 1. Visitors Activities and Types of Support Establishments... 2 Table 2. Ten ( ) Average Numbers of Employees/Establishment for the Proposed ONP&P plus Timucuan, Congaree, and Cuyahoga Valley Park Units... 4 Table 3. Estimated Projected Growth in Establishments Supporting Recreational Activities with an Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve... 5 Table 4. Estimated Projected Growth in Establishments Supporting Recreational Activities without an Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve... 6 Table 5. Summary of Visitors to Focal Public Lands in the Study Area, Table 6. Peer Parks Visitors, Size, Activities, and Nearby Metro Areas... 8 Table 7. Summary Measures of Growth Rates Across Peer Parks Table 8. Projected Growth Rates for Visitation by Scenario Table 9. Projected Visitors for the Medium, High, and Low ONP&P and No ONP&P Scenarios: 2016, 2021, 2026, and Table 10. Overall Operating Budgets for the Ocmulgee National Monument Table 11. Number of visitors, authorized budget level, and value paid per budget for selected national parks, preserves, and recreation areas Table 12. Overall Operating Budgets for 2014 for the Study Area Focal Public Lands for an ONP&P Table 13. Estimated Share of Park Operating Costs Comprised of Personnel Costs Including Salaries and ONM Costs Comprising Personnel Costs Table 14. Estimated Shares of Operating Costs for WMA Table 15. Estimated Budget Allocation to Salary, Benefits, and Non-Personnel Costs Table 16. Estimated Operating Budget Scenarios for With and Without the Proposed ONP&P ii

5 Table 17. Estimated Budget Allocations by Cost Type, Medium Scenario Appendix Table 1. Ten Average ( ) Number of Establishments Supporting Recreational Activities for the Proposed Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve, Georgia Appendix Table 2. Ten Average ( ) Number of Employees Supporting Recreational Activities for the Proposed Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve, Georgia Appendix Table 3. Ten Average ( ) Number of Establishments Supporting Recreational Activities for Timucuan E&HP, Florida; Congaree National Park, South Carolina; and Cuyahoga Valley National Park, Ohio Appendix Table 4. Ten Average ( ) Number of Employees Supporting Recreational Activities for Timucuan E&HP, Florida; Congaree National Park, South Carolina; and Cuyahoga Valley National Park, Ohio Appendix Table 5. Percent Change in Regional Growth in Numbers of Establishments Supporting Recreational Activities for the Proposed Ocmulgee National Park and Preserve, Georgia; Timucuan Ecological & Historic Preserve, Florida; Congaree National Park, South Carolina; and Cuyahoga Valley National Park, Ohio, Appendix Table 6. Percent Change in Regional Growth in Numbers of Employees Supporting Recreational Activities for the Proposed Ocmulgee National Park and Preserve, Georgia; Timucuan Ecological & Historic Preserve, Florida; Congaree National Park, South Carolina; and Cuyahoga Valley National Park, Ohio, Appendix Table 7. Estimated Growth in Establishments Supporting Recreational Activities with an Ocmulgee National Park and Preserve Appendix Table 8. Estimated Growth in Establishments Supporting Recreational Activities without a Ocmulgee National Park and Preserve Appendix Table 9. Projected Visitors for the ONP&P, Appendix Table 10. Medium Projected Budget for the Proposed ONP&P for s 2014, 2016, 2021, 2026, and Appendix Table 11. High Projected Budget for the Proposed ONP&P for s 2014, 2016, 2021, 2026, and Appendix Table 12. Low Projected Budget for the Proposed ONP&P for s 2014, 2016, 2021, 2026, and Appendix Table 13. No ONP&P Projected Budget for the Proposed ONP&P for s 2014, 2016, 2021, 2026, and List of Figures Figure 1. Locations of Peer Parks Used in ONMM Visitation Growth Projections... 8 Figure 2. Estimated Operating Cost Shares for Consolidated Focal Lands, iii

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7 An Analysis of the Potential Economic Impacts from the Proposed Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve Background The overall purpose of this study is to provide projections of how supporting businesses and park operating budgets might change with the proposed Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve (ONP&P) and compare these projections with those given assuming that the focal lands (Ocmulgee National Monument (ONM), Bond Swamp NR, Echeconnee Creek Natural Area, Ocmulgee WMA, and Oaky Woods WMA) were to remain as separate units with no National Park & Preserve designation. First, businesses establishments, including their numbers of employees, believed to support recreational activities for the study area, as well as their changes in growth over a ten-year timeframe are examined. Second, growth projections of these establishments both with and without a National Park designation for the study area are presented. Third, current operating budget estimates for the focal lands are presented including a break-out by budget categories, such as salaries, utilities, etc. Finally, operating budgets for a Low, Medium, and High visitor growth scenarios with an ONP&P, as well as a No ONP&P scenario are presented. As such, information presented in this document includes 1) an inventory of recreational and support businesses in the study area, 2) projections of business additions that would occur in the study area with and without an ONP&P in the future are provided, 3) an estimate of operating budgets for the focal lands that would comprise the ONP&P is provided, 4) projections of changes in the operating budget with an ONP&P and without in the future is provided under various visitor growth scenarios. Existing Recreational Business Establishments Supporting ONP&P For the purpose of this analysis, Tier 1 counties are those that would include some portion of the ONP&P (Bibb, Bleckley, Houston, Pulaski, and Twiggs). Tier 2 counties are those additional nearby gateway counties that border the Tier 1 counties (Baldwin, Crawford, Dodge, Dooly, Jones, Laurens, Macon, Monroe, Peach, Wilcox, and Wilkins). Current business establishments believe to support recreational activities in the Tier 1 and 2 counties include drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (North American Industrial Classification (NAICS) 7224); full-service restaurants (NAICS) ); limited service restaurants (NAICS ); hotels and motels (NAICS ); other traveler accommodations such as bed and breakfasts, tourist homes, and guest houses (NAICS 72119); recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds (NAICS 7212); room and boarding houses (NAICS 7213); outfitter or new retail sporting goods stores that offer not only bicycles and bicycle parts and camping equipment but also exercise/fitness equipment, sports footwear and apparel, plus other sporting goods, equipment, and accessories (NAICS ); recreational goods rentals that offer not only bicycle and canoe rentals but also other recreational equipment (NAICS ); and other amusement and recreational 1

8 industries such as amusement parks/arcades, golf courses, marinas, fitness and recreational sports centers, and bowling centers (NAICS ) (Table 1). For the ONP&P counties, the numbers of establishments including their numbers of employees for these identified businesses believed to support recreational activities were compared from 2004 through 2013 (latest available data) via use of the U.S. Census Bureau s County Business Patterns ( For comparison purposes, identical information was collected for both Tier 1 and Tier 2 counties for Congaree and Cuyahoga Valley National Parks and Timucuan Ecological and Historic Preserve (E&HP) (see Appendix Tables 1 through 6). Also, for the Tier 1 and Tier 2 counties for the proposed ONP&P each Chamber of Commerce s business directory was searched for business establishments believed to support recreational activities. Table 1. Visitors Activities and Types of Support Establishments Activity Industry NAICS Description and Code Drinking Places (alcoholic beverages) (NAICS 7224), Full-service Eating Out restaurants (NAICS ), Limited-service restaurants (NAICS ) Hotels/motels (NAICS ); other traveler accommodations such as bed and breakfast, tourist homes, and guest houses (NAICS 72119); recreational Lodging vehicle camps and campgrounds (NAICS 7212); room and boarding houses (NAICS 7213) Outfitter or new retail sporting goods stores offering not only bicycles and bicycle parts and camping equipment but also exercise/fitness equipment, Buying Equipment sports footwear and apparel, plus other sporting goods, equipment, and accessories (NAICS ) Renting Recreational goods rentals that offer not only bicycle and canoe rentals but Equipment also other recreational equipment (NAICS ) Other Amusement Other amusement and recreational industries such as amusement & Recreational parks/arcades, golf courses, marinas, fitness and recreational sports centers, Industries and bowling centers (NAICS ) For the counties comprising ONP&P, Bibb followed by Houston county had the largest ten-year average numbers of establishments for drinking places, full-service restaurants, limited-service restaurants, hotels and motels, and retail or sporting goods outfitters (bold and italics Appendix Table 1). Bibb County also had the largest ten-year average numbers of establishments for other amusement and recreational industry establishments, recreational goods rental stores and, in conjunction with Houston County, room and boarding houses. Houston County had the largest ten-year average numbers of establishments for other traveler accommodations and recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds. For all the ONP&P counties, the largest average numbers of establishments were for limited-service restaurants (422.5), followed by full-service restaurants (327.5), hotels and motels (151.0), retail or sporting goods outfitters (35.9), drinking places (28.3), other amusement and recreational industries (15.2), recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds (7.2), other traveler accommodations (6.3), room and boarding houses (2.2), and recreational goods rentals (1.9). Likewise for employees for these same establishments, Bibb followed by Houston counties had the largest ten-year average numbers of employees for drinking places, fullservice restaurants, limited-service restaurants, and hotels and motels (Appendix Table 2). 2

9 Bibb County also had the largest ten-year average numbers of employees for room and boarding houses and retail or sporting goods outfitters. Houston County had the largest numbers of employees for other traveler accommodations and other amusement and recreational industries. Dooly and Dodge Counties had the largest average numbers of employees for recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds and recreational goods rentals, respectively. From the ONP&P Chamber of Commerce county search for potential bike, canoe, and or kayak rentals; outfitters; and camping supplies stores, one new outfitter named Oconee Outfitters ( located in Milledgeville in Baldwin County was identified. This outfitter establishment offers bikes, kayaks, and paddle board equipment. In addition, an expedition business named Ocmulgee Outdoor Expeditions, LLC ( offers canoe and kayak rentals for floating down the Ocmulgee River. As a comparison, ten-year averages for establishments and employees for Tier 1 and Tier 2 gateway counties for these same recreational industries (Table 1) were conducted for Congaree, Cuyahoga, and Timucuan E&HP 1 and their surrounding gateway counties (Appendix Table 3). For Congaree, which was first established as a National Monument in 1976 and re-designated by a Congress as a National Park in 2003, the seven Tier 1 and Tier 2 county averages compared to the state ranged from 57.3 percent for room and boarding houses to 4.4 percent recreational goods rentals for numbers of establishments. For Cuyahoga, which was first established as a National Recreation Area in 1974 but redesignated at a National Park in 2000, its nine Tier 1 and Tier 2 county averages compared to the state ranged from 30.7 percent for drinking places to 10.2 percent for other traveler accommodations (bed and breakfasts, tourist homes, and guest houses) for numbers of establishments. For Timucuan, which was established in 1988, its seven Tier 1 and Tier 2 county averages compared to the state ranged from 18.4 percent for other traveler accommodations to 3.7 percent for recreational goods rentals. For Congaree, ten-year averages for employees compared to the state ranged from 54.9 percent for room and boarding houses to 2.0 percent for recreation vehicle camps and campgrounds (Appendix Table 4). Other amusement and recreational industries was the largest for Cuyahoga Valley at 32.9 percent with room and boarding houses the smallest at 9.3 percent when comparing Tier 1 and Tier 2 county averages to the state average. For Timucuan, other traveler accommodations was the largest at 29.8 percent with both recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds and drinking places the smallest at 5.0 percent (Appendix Table 4). Of interest would be the average percent change in growth for both the establishments and employees in Table 1 over the ten-year timeframe for the Tier 1 and Tier 2 counties comprising the National Park units for Timucuan, Congaree, Cuyahoga Valley and the proposed ONP&P (Appendix Tables 5 and 6). 2 For the counties in the proposed ONP&P, recreational goods rental stores, recreational vehicle camps and 1 These units were selected based on similarities in visitors, expenditures, and amenities offered. 2 The ten year time frame extends from Due to the severe recession in , and the sluggish economy that persisted in many regions of the nation through 2012, the resulting growth may be less than what the projected growth for most industries should have been. If this is the case, the projections of growth in these establishments in this document are likely to be conservative. 3

10 campgrounds, limited-service restaurants, hotels and motels, room and boarding houses, and full-service restaurants had increased growth (bold and italics in Appendix Table 5), whereas drinking places, other amusement and recreational industries, outfitters or new retail sporting goods stores, and other traveler accommodations had decreased growth. For the already established National Parks units, Congaree had increased growth for both restaurant types, especially for limited-service restaurants. All accommodation industries experienced increased growth except for other traveler s accommodations. Outfitter or new retail sporting goods stores, recreational goods rental stores, other amusement and recreation industries, and drinking places had decreased growth. Cuyahoga Valley had increased growth for recreational goods rental stores and in both restaurant types and accommodations except for recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds and room and boarding houses. Outfitter and new retail sporting goods stores, other amusement and recreational industries, and drinking places had decreased growth. Timucuan had increased growth for all business establishments, especially for recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds, room and boarding houses, and other traveler s accommodations. For the proposed ONP&P, the largest ten-year average numbers of employees per establishments were for full-service restaurants at 23.9 (Table 2), followed by limitedservice restaurants (20.3), retail or sporting goods outfitters (13.2), hotels and motels (11.6), drinking places (6.8), other traveler accommodations (6.1), recreational goods rentals (4.6), other amusement and recreation industries (4.5), room and boarding houses (4.4), and recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds (4.2). The largest ten-year average numbers of employees per establishment for Congaree was for full-service restaurants and limited-service restaurants. For Cuyahoga Valley and Timucuan, hotels and motels had the Table 2. Ten ( ) Average Numbers of Employees/Establishment for the Proposed ONP&P plus Timucuan, Congaree, and Cuyahoga Valley Park Units Category NAICS Proposed ONP&P Timucuan Congaree Cuyahoga Valley Drinking Places Full-service restaurants Limited-service restaurants Hotels & Motels Other travelers accommodations RV camps & campgrounds Room/boarding houses Retail or sporting goods outfitters Recreational goods rentals Other amusement & recreational industries Bed and breakfasts, tourist homes, guest houses, etc. 2Bicycles and bicycle parts; camping equipment; exercise and fitness equipment; athletic uniforms; specialty sports footwear; and sporting goods, equipment, and accessories 3Rentals of recreational goods such as bicycles, canoes/kayaks, motorcycles, skis, sailboats, beach chairs, and beach umbrellas 4Establishments that are amusement parks/arcades; gambling industries; golf courses and country clubs; skiing facilities; marinas; fitness and recreational sports centers; and bowling centers Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 4

11 largest ten-year averages numbers of employees per establishments. The smallest number of employees per establishment for Congaree and Cuyahoga Valley was recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds and other amusement and recreation industries for Timucuan. Projections of New Business Additions For the most recent available numbers of establishments (2013 Censtats) believed to support recreational activities for the affected counties in the proposed ONP&P ( 1 in Table 3), growth projections per 1,000 visitors are calculated (Table 3). Estimated growth percentages were derived from averaging Congaree s, Cuyahoga Valley s, and Timucuan E&HP units growth for these establishments over the periods (see full 15-year projections in Appendix Table 7). Most establishments are projected to have positive growth with the estimated largest increases in numbers of establishments for both limited- and full-service restaurants, hotels and motels, recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds, and retail or sporting goods outfitters. For drinking places, growth is expected to remain relatively flat. Perhaps this is because of the availability of wine and beer via grocery stores in Georgia and home consumption. Table 3. Estimated Projected Growth in Establishments Supporting Recreational Activities with an Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve Category NAICS Drinking Places Full-service restaurants Limited-service restaurants Hotels & Motels Other travelers accommodations RV camps & campgrounds Room/boarding houses Retail or sporting goods outfitters Recreational goods rentals Other amusement & recreational industries Bed and breakfasts, tourist homes, guest houses, etc. 2Bicycles and bicycle parts; camping equipment; exercise and fitness equipment; athletic uniforms; specialty sports footwear; and sporting goods, equipment, and accessories 3Rentals of recreational goods such as bicycles, canoes/kayaks, motorcycles, skis, sailboats, beach chairs, and beach umbrellas 4Establishments that are amusement parks/arcades; gambling industries; golf courses and country clubs; skiing facilities; marinas; fitness and recreational sports centers; and bowling centers For comparison purposes, growth in these same establishments without an ONP&P designation is shown in Table 4 (see full 15-year projections in Appendix Table 8). Growth percentages for the establishments without the park designation were derived from taking the actual growth of these industries over the ten-year period Positive growth, albeit not as robust as with a national park designation, is projected for both limited- and full-service restaurants, hotels and motels, and recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds. Negative growth is projected for drinking places, retail or sporting goods outfitters, and other amusement and recreational industries. Growths in the remaining 5

12 industries, other travelers accommodations, room and boarding houses, and recreational goods rentals, are expected to remain relatively flat. Table 4. Estimated Projected Growth in Establishments Supporting Recreational Activities without an Ocmulgee National Park & Preserve Category NAICS Drinking Places Full-service restaurants Limited-service restaurants Hotels & Motels Other travelers accommodations RV camps & campgrounds Room/boarding houses Retail or sporting goods outfitters Recreational goods rentals Other amusement & recreational industries Bed and breakfasts, tourist homes, guest houses, etc. 2Bicycles and bicycle parts; camping equipment; exercise and fitness equipment; athletic uniforms; specialty sports footwear; and sporting goods, equipment, and accessories 3Rentals of recreational goods such as bicycles, canoes/kayaks, motorcycles, skis, sailboats, beach chairs, and beach umbrellas 4 Establishments that are amusement parks/arcades; gambling industries; golf courses and country clubs; skiing facilities; marinas; fitness and recreational sports centers; and bowling centers Projections of Changes in Operating Budget between the Baseline and National Park & Preserve Scenario In addition to positive economic impacts from a National Park & Preserve designation, there are likely to be additional costs in terms of staffing and management for the new unit over and above the current budgets for the several constituent units making up the focal public lands. These additional budgetary needs would be associated with the additional tourism and recreation opportunities and the resultant increases in visitation numbers. A comparison between the current operating budgets for the focal public lands and the estimated operating budget under the National Park & Preserve scenario was generated, using current, 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year cost projections under Low, Medium, and High, and no national park visitation growth scenarios. These estimates were derived from the budgets of other National Park units of similar size, resources, and projected visitation numbers as well as the estimated budgets for the existing lands. Changes in Visitation Numbers Four changes in visitor numbers are projected, Low, Medium, High, and No ONP&P. The 2013 estimate of visitors to the focal lands is used as a starting value in projections. The current estimate of visitors to the focal public lands is 148,265 and the acres are 38,453 (Table 5). 6

13 Table 5. Summary of Visitors to Focal Public Lands in the Study Area, 2013 Monument/Park/Wildlife Refuge Visitors Acres Echecoonee Creek State Wildlife Management Ocmulgee State Wildlife Management Area 9,160 21,243 Oaky Woods State Wildlife Management Area 6,531 9,000 Bond Swamp National Wildlife Refuge 9,000 6,500 Ocmulgee National Monument 122,799** 702 Total Visitor Days 148, ,453 *Based upon the number ratio of visit days to visitors for the Ocmulgee State Wildlife Management Area from Southwick Associates, Inc & Responsive Management, August 2014 To arrive at visitor projections for the ONP&P, visitor growth estimates from ten peer parks in the United States are used. Two sets of projections are used. One is for the first ten years before National Park Service designation and the ten-year time period after designation. This is designed to help capture the effects of being a newly designated park or preserve versus more mature park growth in visitors. As such, historical visitation statistics from units with similarities to the proposed ONP&P are used to generate a range of future growth estimates (e.g. Low, Medium, and High growth projections) for the ONP&P. The following units serve as peers to or analogs for the ONP&P in central Georgia: 1. Big Thicket National Preserve (TX), 2. Big Cypress National Preserve (FL), 3. Chattahoochee River National Recreation Area (GA), 4. Chesapeake & Ohio Canal National Historical Park (DC, MD, WV), 5. Congaree National Park (SC), 6. Cuyahoga Valley National Park (OH), 7. Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area (NJ & PA), 8. New River Gorge National River (WV), 9. St. Croix National Scenic River (WI), and 10. Timucuan Ecological and Historic Preserve (FL). A map of the peer parks locations can be seen in Figure 2. With the exception of Big Thicket National Preserve located in Texas and the St. Croix National Scenic River, most of the park units are located in the eastern United States. Data for the parks visitation are from the National Park Service ( 7

14 Figure 1. Locations of Peer Parks Used in ONMM Visitation Growth Projections A summary table of 2014 visitors, park size, activities within the park, and nearest metropolitan area and population is provided (Table 6). Most of the parks are near metropolitan areas of 500,000 in population or greater and 5 of the parks are near metro areas with greater than 1 million in population. Median size of nearby metro areas is thousand people. The median park visitors among the peer parks are 1.16 million per year, while median park size is 70,000 acres. Table 6. Peer Parks Visitors, Size, Activities, and Nearby Metro Areas Park 2014 Size Visitors (Acres) Activities within the Park Park Name 1) Big Cypress National Preserve (FL) 2) Big Thicket National Preserve (TX) 3) Chattahoochee River National Recreation Area (GA) 4) Chesapeake & Ohio Canal National Historical Park (DC, MD, WV) 1,192, , , ,085 3,119,160 10,000 5,066,219 19,236 Camping, birdwatching, wildlife viewing, hunting, canoeing/ kayaking off-road vehicles Hiking, backcountry camping, canoeing and kayaking, birdwatching, hunting Whitewater rafting, canoeing, kayaking, hiking, birdwatching, fishing and boating picnicking, horseback riding Hiking, camping, bicycling, history tours, fishing, boat rides, horseback riding Nearest Metropolitan Area and Population* Miami, FL (5,828,191) Beaumont, TX (404,872) Atlanta, GA (5,522,942) Washington, DC (5,949,859) 8

15 Table 6. Cont. Park Name 5) Congaree National Park (SC) 6) Cuyahoga Valley National Park (OH) 7) Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area (NJ & PA) 8) New River Gorge National River (WV) 9) St. Croix National Scenic River (WI) 10) Timucuan Ecological and Historic Preserve (FL) Park 2014 Visitors Size (Acres) Activities within the Park 120,122 27,000 Canoeing/kayaking, wildlife watching, hiking, boardwalk Hiking, train ride, biking bird watching, camping, canoeing/ 2,189,849 33,000 kayaking, fishing, golfing, horse trails, picnicking, snowshoeing, cross- country skiing History, hiking, swimming, canoeing/kayaking, boating, bicycling, fishing and hunting, 4,041,672 70,000 scenic drive, picnicking, bird watching, cross-country skiing, snowshoeing, horseback riding, rock climbing Whitewater rafting, rock climbing, 1,124,799 72,808 fishing, hiking, camping, bird watching, picnicking Fishing, canoeing, boating, 671,582 92,738 camping, tubing, hunting, hiking, horseback riding 1,121,318 46,000 Historical sites, beach, kayaks, wildlife watching, camping, picnicking *Metropolitan Statistical Area, source Census Bureau 2013 estimates. Nearest Metropolitan Area and Population* Columbia, SC (793,779) Akron, OH (705,686) Scranton, PA (562,037) Charleston, WV (224,743) Minneapolis, MN (3,459,146) Jacksonville, FL (1,394,624) The parks share many of the same activities that could be offered by the proposed ONP&P. For example several of the parks offer both outdoor and historical tourism opportunities. The parks, in some way, have activities revolving around water recreation. Most offer canoeing/kayaking opportunities, camping, hiking, and wildlife watching. Using the information about historical visitation across the peer parks shown in Appendix Table 9, the average growth rates overall, first 10 years of NPS designation, after 10 years, and comparisons of year 1 and year 10 are estimated (Table 7). In order to make projections for the proposed ONP&P, we used visitor calculations from Table 12 and extended these values out across 10 years, using the median of average annual growth rates across the peer parks as the Medium scenario growth. We used the 25 th percentile to make Low projections for the first 10 years and the 75 th percentile to make projections for the High projections. We used the same procedure beyond 10 years of NPS designation using the median, 25 th, and 75 th percentiles of average annual growth of parks. These scenarios growth rates are shown in Table 8. Given these growth rates, the projected visitation growth is shown in Table 9 for the years 2016, 2021, 2026, and The individual year projections can be found in Appendix Table 9. As can be seen in Table 9, under the Medium scenario estimated 9

16 visitors range from 185,899 in 2016 for the ONP&P to 1.37 million in year 2031 (fourth column Table 9). For the No ONP&P scenario, the number of visitors is projected to grow to 207,607, for the High visitors are projected to grow to 1.69 million, and for the Low to 660,489 by Table 7. Summary Measures of Growth Rates Across Peer Parks Summary Measures Across the Peer Parks Growth Measure Average Median 25 th Percentile 75 th Percentile Average Annual Growth 11.49% 8.81% 7.00% 12.74% Average Annual Growth First 10 s 22.18% 21.73% 13.52% 23.29% Average Annual Growth After 10 s 6.04% 3.92% 3.32% 5.33% Growth Comparing 1 and % % % % Table 8. Projected Growth Rates for Visitation by Scenario Growth Rates Scenario First 10 s After 10 s No ONP&P 2% 2% Medium 21.73% 3.92% High 23.29% 5.33% Low 13.52% 3.32% Table 9. Projected Visitors for the Medium, High, and Low ONP&P and No ONP&P Scenarios: 2016, 2021, 2026, and 2031 Projected Visitation Growth* Scenario No ONP&P 154, , , ,607 Medium 185, ,911 1,133,964 1,374,653 High 188, ,292 1,305,082 1,692,005 Low 173, , , ,489 *First 10 year growth rates are used from 2016 to Operating Budget Estimates In order to estimate an operating budget for an ONP&P, the individual overall budgets of each of the focal lands needs to be estimated first. An overall operating budget was obtained from ONM. The overall operating budget for the ONM was provided by National Park Service personnel. According to ONM NPS personnel, the operating budget for the ONM has ranged from $814,000 in 2005 to $1,280,000 in 2014 (Table 10). The number of visitors during this time frame ranged from a high of 140,239 in 2006 to 102,631 in In 2014, the number of visitors was 122,799. Dollars budgeted per visitor varied during this time frame and equaled $10.42 in

17 Table 10. Overall Operating Budgets for the Ocmulgee National Monument Annual Percentage Budget Amount* Growth 2005 $814, $833, % 2007 $851, % 2008 $964, % 2009 $1,181, % 2010 $1,333, % 2011 $1,290, % 2012 $1,293, % 2013 $1,291, % 2014 $1,280, % 2015 $1,288, % Average 4.98% Source: U.S. Department of the Interior, National Park Service, 2016a & 2016b Amount Budget per Visitor and Annual Growth Percentage determined by the authors The budget per visitor estimate ($10.42 per visitor) is in line with other parks. Using the ten peer national units selected for this analysis, and information published by the Department of Interior s National Park Service (2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016) and the per park visitor estimates (U.S. Department of the Interior, National Park Service, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015) (USDOI/NPS, 2016a) the estimate could be between $1.02 per visitor to $25.82 per visitor (Table 11). The mean value for these parks over the period is $7.81 per visitor with a standard deviation of almost 6.93 putting the $10.42 per visitor within one standard deviation of the mean value. The $10.42 per visitor was multiplied times estimates of future visitors to obtain the total budget allocated for each scenario. This number ($10.42 per visitor) was also used to obtain a base budget for focal areas where no published 2014 budget exists. A summary of the overall estimated operating budgets for the focal area public lands is given in Table 12. The total estimate across all the lands that might be merged into an ONP&P is $1.545 million. 11

18 12 Table 11. Number of visitors, authorized budget level, and value paid per budget for selected national parks, preserves, and recreation areas Total Number of Visitors ( ) Number of visitors Big Cypress National Preserve (FL) , , ,313.4 Big Thicket National Preserve (TX) Chattahoochee River National Recreation Area (GA) 1, , , , , , , ,905.0 Chesapeake and Ohio,MD, WV, DC 3, , , , , , , ,631.9 Congaree National Park Cuyahoga Valley National Park (OH) 2, , , , , , , ,664.0 Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area (NJ & PA) 5, , , , , , , ,468.4 New River Gorge, WV , , ,316.1 St. Croix, WI ,785.6 Timucuan EHP 1, , , , , , ,486.2 Total Budgeted Budget 2008 to 2014 ($1000) nominal Big Cypress National Preserve (FL) 5,507 6,282 7,163 6,886 6,665 6,674 6,607 45,784 Big Thicket National Preserve (TX) 2,418 2,592 2,746 2,746 2,504 2,587 2,561 18,154 Chattahoochee River National Recreation Area (GA) 2,916 3,007 3,451 3,451 3,344 3,349 3,316 22,834 Chesapeake and Ohio,MD, WV, DC 9,113 9,866 10,597 10,493 10,138 10,152 9,339 69,698 12

19 13 Table 11. Cont. Budget Total Budgeted 2008 to 2014 ($1000) nominal Congaree National Park 1,217 1,540 1,935 1,935 1,874 1,877 1,858 12,236 Cuyahoga Valley National Park (OH) 8,703 9,557 11,238 11,143 10,861 10,877 10,769 73,148 Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area (NJ & PA) 8,703 9,557 9,863 9,781 9,522 9,536 9,431 66,393 New River Gorge, WV 7,165 7,540 7,674 7,585 7,376 7,386 7,312 52,038 St. Croix, WI 3,674 4,085 4,249 4,249 4,116 4,122 4,104 28,599 Timucuan EHP 1,055 1,215 1,317 1,317 1,275 1,277 1,266 8,722 $ per visitor Average Big Cypress National Preserve (FL) $6.77 $7.73 $10.76 $7.31 $7.55 $6.64 $5.54 $7.25 Big Thicket National Preserve (TX) $25.82 $25.79 $19.55 $19.94 $18.51 $21.54 $23.29 $21.67 Chattahoochee River National Recreation Area (GA) $2.40 $2.63 $3.00 $3.22 $2.96 $3.12 $2.95 $2.89 Chesapeake and Ohio,MD, WV, DC $2.93 $2.63 $2.58 $2.66 $2.15 $2.05 $1.84 $2.35 Congaree National Park $11.60 $12.52 $15.96 $16.10 $17.09 $15.60 $15.47 $14.93 Cuyahoga Valley National Park (OH) $3.08 $3.69 $4.51 $5.16 $4.72 $5.17 $4.92 $4.39 Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area (NJ & PA) $1.70 $1.83 $1.87 $1.96 $1.92 $1.97 $2.33 $1.93 New River Gorge, WV $8.80 $9.28 $11.53 $8.06 $8.36 $7.33 $6.13 $8.24 St. Croix, WI $7.02 $7.24 $22.55 $15.52 $18.62 $12.02 $6.11 $10.27 Timucuan EHP $1.02 $1.02 $1.33 $1.28 $1.18 $1.24 $1.13 $

20 Table 12. Overall Operating Budgets for 2014 for the Study Area Focal Public Lands for an ONP&P Focal Public Land 2014 Operating Budget Bond Swamp NWR $93,812 Echeconnee Creek Natural Area $8,078 Ocmulgee Wildlife Management Area $95,480 Oaky Woods Wildlife Management Area $68,076 Ocmulgee National Monument $1,280,000 Total $1,545,446 Once overall operating budgets were obtained or estimated, a breakdown of these operating budgets into cost categories was needed. Since a breakdown of the budget information was not available, estimates of cost shares were made based upon operation of other parks and public lands. The share of costs that might come from personnel for the ONM was based on a 2006 funding trends GAO report for years 2001 through 2005 for allocations from selected parks in the Eastern U.S. These included Acadia, Gettysburg, and Shenandoah. 3 The shares of overall operation budgets made up by personnel for these three parks was calculated for , then an average over all the values was taken (Table 13). Across the three parks and for , personnel costs made up about percent of operating budgets. In addition, this document provided a breakdown of personnel costs into salaries versus benefits. The shares of personnel costs made up by salaries are provided in Table 8 also. The overall average across all three parks and for is percent. Hence, if we combine the two sets of information, personnel costs make up percent of overall expenditures, while salaries make up percent, and benefits make up percent. These percentages are applied to the proposed ONP&P. Table 13. Estimated Share of Park Operating Costs Comprised of Personnel Costs Including Salaries and ONM Costs Comprising Personnel Costs Share Share of Operating Made up of Personnel Acadia 82.36% 74.95% 75.10% 79.70% 81.76% Gettysburg 88.42% 88.72% 87.33% 88.40% 87.03% Shenandoah 83.66% 84.75% 85.88% 87.18% 84.03% Overall Average Used for ONM 83.95% Share of Personnel Made up of Salaries Acadia 79.84% 79.21% 78.42% 77.77% 77.13% Gettysburg 80.49% 80.54% 80.93% 80.38% 79.23% Shenandoah 78.63% 78.30% 77.90% 77.05% 76.47% Overall Average Used for ONM 78.82% 3 These parks were chosen because of availability of detailed operating budget data. Local personnel share was available for the New River Gorge (Versel, 2006) (79%) and it was similar to these more detailed budgets (76%). 14

21 For the Bond Swamp and the WMA s, a Fish and Wildlife Service 2014 budget justification document was used to calculate cost shares. Notably from Table 14, the share of operating made up by salaries and wages is percent and from benefits is percent. Table 14. Estimated Shares of Operating Costs for WMA Category 2014 Share Salaries and Wages 48.82% Benefits 16.55% Travel 2.53% Transport 0.59% Rental Payments 5.57% Communications and Utilities 1.94% Printing 0.59% Services 8.70% Facilities Maintenance 2.45% Equip Maintenance 1.35% Supplies 6.00% Equipment 2.87% Land and Structures 2.03% Total % Using these personnel cost shares from Table 13 for the ONM and Table 14 for the Bond Swamp and WMA s, plus the overall projected operating budgets for these lands, a breakdown of these projected budgets into salary, benefits, and non-personnel costs was estimated for the focal lands. These estimates are shown in Table 15. Table 15. Estimated Budget Allocation to Salary, Benefits, and Non-Personnel Costs Bond Swamp NWR Echeconnee Creek Natural Area Ocmulgee Wildlife Management Area Oaky Woods Wildlife Management Area Ocmulgee National Monument Total Across Focal Lands Overall Budget $93,812 $8,078 $95,480 $68,076 $1,280,000 $1,545,446 Salaries & Benefits $61,326 $5,281 $62,417 $44,502 $1,074,582 $1,248,108 Salaries $45,797 $3,944 $46,611 $33,233 $846,979 $976,563 Benefits $15,530 $1,337 $15,806 $11,269 $227,603 $271,545 Non-Salary $32,486 $2,797 $33,063 $23,574 $205,418 $297,338 Non-personnel costs would include categories such as travel, transport, rental payments, utilities, printing, services, facilities maintenance, equipment maintenance, and land and structures (Figure 2). Services might include contractual costs for architect and engineering designs, studies and inspections, training, and consulting services. Land and structures costs would include both the acquisition and construction costs. The budget 15

22 shares in Table 14 were used to allocate non-personnel costs. In the case of the Bond Swamp and the WMA s, these shares were used directly as a share of the total expenditures. In the case of the ONM, the non-personnel category costs were calculated as shares of non-personnel costs and then used to allocate the non-personnel costs. Figure 2. Estimated Operating Cost Shares for Consolidated Focal Lands, 2014 Projected Operating Budget Projections for the Four Scenarios Historically, funding for the Ocmulgee National Monument has increased in seven of the past ten years, increasing from $833,000 in 2006 to $1,280,000 in For the five focal public lands, the estimated 2014 budget is just over $1.5 million (See Table 12), with the majority of this amount going to personnel costs. The values from Table 12 are used as the initial year values for each of the scenarios. Using the estimated visitors for each scenario with the dollars per visitors spending held constant ($10.42), the budget is projected for years 2015 through 2031 (Appendix Tables 11 through 14). A summary of these data is presented in Table 16 for years 2014, 2016, 2021, 2026, and If the projected budget is based on projected visitation for each of the scenarios using current estimated dollar per visitors spending at the ONM ($10.42), the budget in 2031 for the five focal public lands is projected to increase to $14.3 million under the Medium scenario, $17.6 million under the High scenario, and $6.9 million under the Low scenario. This can be compared with a projected value of $2.16 million under the No ONP&P scenario. The dollar values in each category, including total, personnel, and non-personnel costs are shown in Table 17 for the Medium Scenario. 16

23 Table 16. Estimated Operating Budget Scenarios for With and Without the Proposed ONP&P Scenario No ONP&P $1,545,446 $1,607,882 $1,775,231 $1,921,568 $2,163,997 Ocmulgee NP Medium $1,545,446 $1,937,722 $5,179,571 $11,373,541 $14,328,746 High $1,545,446 $1,962,510 $5,590,061 $12,915,172 $17,636,675 Low $1,545,446 $1,807,074 $3,407,221 $5,659,002 $6,884,636 Table 17. Estimated Budget Allocations by Cost Type, Medium Scenario Category Overall Budget $1,545,446 $1,937,722 $5,179,571 $11,819,917 $14,328,746 Salaries $976,563 $1,224,442 $3,272,958 $7,468,976 $9,054,298 Benefits $271,545 $340,470 $910,084 $2,076,836 $2,517,653 Travel $21,756 $27,279 $72,917 $166,398 $201,717 Transport $5,076 $6,365 $17,014 $38,826 $47,067 Rental Payments $47,864 $60,013 $160,417 $366,076 $443,777 Utilities $16,680 $20,914 $55,903 $127,572 $154,649 Printing $5,076 $6,365 $17,014 $38,826 $47,067 Services $74,697 $93,657 $250,348 $571,300 $692,560 Facilities Maintenance $21,031 $26,369 $70,486 $160,851 $194,993 Equip Maintenance $11,603 $14,549 $38,889 $88,746 $107,582 Supplies $51,490 $64,560 $172,570 $393,809 $477,396 Equipment $24,657 $30,916 $82,639 $188,584 $228,612 Land & Structures $17,405 $21,823 $58,333 $133,118 $161,373 Conclusions Park operation budgets increase with the magnitude of changes in visitors depending on the evaluated scenarios, which, in turn, increases the economic impacts to the region. In our analysis, ONP&P visitor estimates range from 660,489 to 1.69 million under a Low to High visitation scenario, respectively, with a Medium scenario projection of 1.37 million visitors. For the No ONP&P scenario, visitor estimates are 207,607. Current business establishments believed to support recreational activities for the proposed ONP&P includes drinking places; full-service restaurants; limited service restaurants; hotels and motels; other traveler accommodations such as bed and breakfasts, tourist homes, and guest houses; recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds; room and boarding houses; outfitter or new retail sporting goods stores; recreational goods rentals that offer not only bicycle and canoe rentals but also other recreational equipment; and other amusement and recreational industries. For the ONP&P counties, the numbers of establishments including their numbers of employees for these identified businesses believed to support recreational activities were compared from 2004 through For comparison purposes, identical information was collected for Congaree, Cuyahoga Valley, and Timucuan units. 17

24 For the counties comprising ONP&P, Bibb followed by Houston counties had the largest ten-year average numbers of establishment for many of the establishments believed to support recreational activities. For all the ONP&P counties, the largest average numbers of establishments were for limited- and full-service restaurants and hotels and motels. However, as a percentage of the state s total ten-year average numbers of establishments, recreational goods rentals had the largest percentage proportion of numbers of establishments followed by hotels and motels, recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds, other traveler accommodations, drinking places, retail or sporting goods outfitters, limited-service restaurants, room and boarding houses, full-service restaurants, and other amusement and recreation industries. Compared to establishments, as a percentage of the state s total ten-year average, the largest percentage proportion average numbers of employees were for retail or sporting goods outfitters, followed by recreational goods rentals, limited-service restaurants, other traveler accommodations, room and boarding houses, full-service restaurants, drinking places, recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds, hotels and motels, and other amusement and recreational industries. Also compared to the proposed ONP&P were ten-year averages for both establishments and employees for these same industries for Congaree, Cuyahoga, and Timucuan park units and their surrounding gateway counties. For the counties in the ONP&P, recreational goods rental stores, recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds, limited-service restaurants, hotels and motels, room and boarding houses, and full-service restaurants achieved positive growth for the ten-year timeframe analyzed, whereas drinking places, other amusement and recreational industries, outfitters or new retail sporting goods stores, and other traveler accommodations realized negative growth. For the most recent available numbers of establishments believed to support recreational activities for the affected counties in the proposed ONP&P, growth projections per 1,000 visitors were calculated. The majority of the establishments are projected to have positive growth with the estimated largest increases in numbers of establishments for both limited- and full-service restaurants, hotels and motels, recreational vehicle camps and campgrounds, and retail or sporting goods outfitters, whereas for drinking places growth is expected to remain relatively flat. Using peer parks in the eastern U.S., future values for visitors and operating budgets for four scenarios were projected, including a No ONP&P scenario under which no national park is formed and the focal lands operate as they have been separately into the future. This serves as a baseline. Three ONP&P scenarios were used to project future visitor and operating budget values; these are the Medium, High, and Low. Projected values for operating budgets ranged from $2.2 million under a No ONP&P scenario to $17.6 million under the High scenario in However, realized economic impacts for the proposed ONP&P depends upon investment and types of facilities provided including nature of the protected landscape and the facilities/services available; how the region develops its nature and cultural tourism opportunities, businesses, and infrastructure; the development of annual events and facilities to accommodate special events; and how the region and park are branded and promoted. 18