Vulnerability and Adaptation to Droughts/Floods in Thailand

Transcription

1 Vulnerability and Adaptation to Droughts/Floods in Thailand A. Limsakul, S. Khakrua, B. Suttamanuswong Environmental Research and Training Center (ERTC) Department of Environmental Quality Promotion Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment Greater Mekong Subregion Core Environment Program : Workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation in Yunan and Guangxi Provinces of PR China, Thailand and Viet Nam, Feb. 2009, Viet Nam Outline of presentation Geography of Thailand and its governing climate patterns Observed climate changes & variability in Thailand Change in extreme climate events in Thailand (CU & ERTC funded by TRF) Vulnerability and adaptation to drought/flood study (On-going project of ERTC) Future plan & direction 1

2 Geography of Thailand and its governing climate patterns Geography of Thailand and its governing climate patterns Monsoon system 2

3 Geography of Thailand and its governing climate patterns El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Geography of Thailand and its governing climate patterns Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) 3

4 Geography of Thailand and its governing climate patterns Thailand is located near the center of Tipping Points of the Earth Climate System. Indian Ocean Dipole Geography of Thailand and its governing climate patterns It is highly prone to hydro-meteorological disasters. 4

5 Geography of Thailand and its governing climate patterns Examples of severe tropical cyclones causing large economic damage. Typhoon GAY (1989) Typhoon LINDA (1997) Typhoon CHANTHU (2007) Typhoon XANGSANE (2009) Observed climate change & variability in Thailand Change in mean state of temperature (long-term) Max. temp. Mean temp. Min. temp. 5

6 Observed climate change & variability in Thailand Change in mean state of temperature (short-term & ENSO) Tmax (60%) Tmean (61%) Tmin (62%) MEI -3 Source: Limsakul et. al.,2008 Observed climate change & variability in Thailand Change in mean state of rainfall (leading mode of PCA) (long-term) 20 CHIANG RAI 18 CHIANG MAI NA N PHARE UTTARADI T UDON THANI (40%) PHITSAN ULOK 16 PHETCHABUN KHO N KAEN ROIET NAKHON SAWAN Longitude NA KHON RATCHAS IM A LOP BURI SURIN SUPHAN BURI KANCHANA BUR I BANGKOK ARANYA P RATHET CH ANTHA BURI SATTATHIP PRA CHU AP KHIRIK HAN (31%) 10 CHUMPHON RANONG 8 NAKHON SI THAM MARAT PHUKET TRAN G SON GKHLA Latitude NA RATHIW AT Source: Limsakul et. al.,2007 6

7 Observed climate change & variability in Thailand Change in mean state of rainfall (leading mode of PCA) (short-term & ENSO) 20 CHIANG RAI CHIAN G M AI NAN 18 PHARE UTTARADIT UDON THA NI PHITSAN ULOK Longitude PHETC HABU N KHON KAEN R OIET NAKHON SAWAN NAKHON RATCHASIMA LOP BURI SURIN SUPHAN BURI KANCHANA BURI BANGKOK ARANY A PR ATHET CHANTHA BURI SATTATHIP PRACH UAP KHIRIK HAN C HUMPHON 10 RAN ONG 8 6 NAKHONSI THAMMARAT PHUKET TRANG SONGKHLA NARATHIW AT L atitude During the 6 strong La Niña years (1975,1985, 1988, 1995, 1996 and 1999), R total and R day were higher than normal. PCA1 of R total and R day in Thailand tended to be greater than normal during negative (La Niña condition) MEI. Source: Limsakul et. al.,2007 Observed climate change & variability in Thailand Change in mean state of rainfall (leading mode of PCA) (short-term & ENSO) 20 CHIANG RAI CHIAN G M AI NAN 18 PHARE UTTARADIT UDON THA NI PHITSAN ULOK Longitude PHETC HABU N KHON KAEN R OIET NAKHON SAWAN NAKHON RATCHASIMA LOP BURI SURIN SUPHAN BURI KANCHANA BURI BANGKOK ARANY A PR ATHET CHANTHA BURI SATTATHIP PRACH UAP KHIRIK HAN C HUMPHON 10 RAN ONG 8 6 PHUKET TRANG NAKHONSI THAMMARAT SONGKHLA L atitude NARATHIW AT During the 6 recent El Niño years (1972,1977, 1983, 1987, 1992 and 1997), R total and R day were lower than normal. PAC1 of R total and R day in Thailand tended to be lower than normal during positive (El Niño condition) MEI. Source: Limsakul et. al.,2007 7

8 Observed climate change & variability in Thailand Change in mean state of vapor pressure Source: Limjirakan1 et. al.,2008 Change in extreme climate events in Thailand Change in extreme (tail behaviors) of climate events Statistical-based extremes (warm days/nights) (Assessment of Extreme Weather Events : Risk & Vulnerability Analysis, CU and ERTC funded by TRF) Representing the events in the tail of distribution that occur infrequently. Event-driven extremes (Flood/Drought) (Vulnerability Analysis and Risk Assessment of flood/ drought in Thailand, ERTC) 8

9 Change in extreme climate events in Thailand Change in extreme (tail behaviors) of temperature and rainfall Cool nights and days (Tmax and Tmin <10 th percentile) Source: Limjirakan1 et. al.,2008 Change in extreme climate events in Thailand Change in extreme (tail behaviors) of temperature and rainfall Warm nights and days (Tmax and Tmin >90 th percentile) Source: Limjirakan1 et. al.,2008 9

10 Change in extreme climate events in Thailand Change in extreme (tail behaviors) of temperature and rainfall Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII) Source: Limjirakan1 et. al.,2008 Change in extreme climate events in Thailand Hotspot of temperature extreme Trend significant at 95% 1 Trend no significant 95% 0 Hotspot values = (all score) Source: Limjirakan1 et. al.,

11 Change in extreme climate events in Thailand Hotspot of rainfall extreme Source: Limjirakan1 et. al.,2008 Goals: pected outcomes: 11

12 Methodology Flood/Drought Data Collection Flood/Drought Index Analysis (SPI) National level Flood/Drought Hotspot Mapping Socio-Economic Vulnerability Indices Biophysical Vulnerability Social Vulnerability Provincial level Vulnerability & Risk Analysis in hotspots Grassroots level Community-based adaptation (Indigenous knowledge + Sufficiency Economy Philosophy) Vulnerability-based (bottom-up) approach Understanding of past and present vulnerability/sensitivity Increase in future adaptive capac Adaptation Options/means Vulnerability Adaptive capacity Human Development Index (HDI) Environmental Vulnerability Index (EN Environmental Sustainability Index (E Water Poverty Index (WPI) based on human, socio-economic dimensions (Equity, Technology, Infrastructure, Institutions, Education, Health, Environments) Food/Drought Hazards and Disasters Past Present Future 12

13 Historical records of drought/flood-affected areas in Thailand Source: Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (2005) Hotspot mapping of drought/flood based on the records complied from the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Provincial Office Flood frequency ( ) (2006) (2007) 13

14 Hotspot mapping of drought/flood based on the records complied from the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Provincial Office Drought frequency ( ) Drought Hotspot Human Achievement Index (HAI) HAI is composed of 8 ind -Health -Education -Employment -Income -Housing & Living Environ -Family & Community Life -Transportation & Commu -Participation 14

15 Source Types of Indices 1. United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Human Development Index (HDI), Human Achievement Index (HAI) 2. South Pacific Applied Geosciences Commission Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) (SOPAC) 3. Global Leaders of Tomorrow Environmental Task Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) Forces and the Universities of Yale and Columbia 4. Center for Ecology and Hydrology in Wallingford Water Poverty Index (WPI) 5. United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) Disaster Risk Index (DRI) 6. Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research Indicators of risk, vulnerability and adaptive capacity A suite of vulnerability indices (community, provincial levels) Community-based adaptation to drought/flood (Kula Ronghai Field) Source: Kerdsuk, V., Khon Kean University 15

16 Community-based adaptation to drought/flood (Kula Ronghai Field) Source: Kerdsuk, V., Khon Kean University Community-based adaptation to drought/flood (Kula Ronghai Field) Source: Kerdsuk, V., Khon Kean University 16

17 Community-based adaptation to drought/flood (Kula Ronghai Field) Previous study carried by Khon Kean University under START Capacity Building ERTC Khon Kean University Action plan of community-based adaptation for flood-affected, drought-affected and flood-drought affected villages Source: Kerdsuk, V., Khon Kean University ERTC & KKU Villagers Local governments 17

18 Future plan & direction Hotspot mapping of drought/flood Hotspot mapping of rainfall/temper National disasters in Thailand extreme events in Thailand level Climate-related Extreme Provincial level Socio-economic-human-environment vulnerability assessment of climate extreme in Hotspot Areas Villager Volunteer Network Communit y level Community-based adaptation/ Climate resilient communities Indigenous knowledge Sufficiency Economy Philosophy 18

19 Future plan & direction Global Top down (Impact-based) approach World development GHG Global climate models Impacts Vulnerability Climate adaptation policy & Strategies Vulnerability Adaptive capacity based on human, socio-economic dimensions (Equity, Technology, Infrastructure, Institutions, Education, Health) Local Bottom up (Vulnerability-based) approach Past Present Future 19

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