Best of Times; Worst of Times
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- Richard Brown
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1 2017 Oilfield Markets: Best of Times; Worst of Times
2 2016 Niobrara Laterals 16,000 TD Date vs Lateral Length (Extraction Oil & Gas) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000-12/12/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /06/ /08/ /10/ /11/2016 Here we see drilling on multi well pads. Laterals tend to be uniform on each pad.
3 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Bakken Laterals TD Date vs Lateral Length (Continental Resources) - 12/12/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /06/ /08/ /10/ /11/2016 Here we see Continental experiment with extremely long laterals but switch back to 10k
4 2016 Permian Laterals 16,000 TD Date vs Lateral Length (Concho) 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000-12/12/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /06/ /08/ /10/ /11/2016 Here we see Concho increasing its use of 11,000 laterals while not abandoning 5,000.
5 2016 Permian Laterals 16,000 TD Date vs Lateral Length 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000-12/12/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /06/ /08/ /10/ /11/2016 This is a graph of all Permian horizontal wells. 3 clusters emerge: 5k, 8k and 11k drilling.
6 2016 US Laterals 16,000 TD Date vs Lateral Length 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000-12/12/ /01/ /03/ /05/ /06/ /08/ /10/ /11/2016 This is a graph of all US horizontal wells. 3 clusters emerge: 5k, 8k and 11k drilling.
7 Takeaway #1
8 Millions Land Quarterly Revenues $5,000 $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 Various OFS Company Land-Focused Product Lines Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 This is a graph of the product line sales of several NoAm-land focused firms. Stability at the bottom finally.
9 Millions Offshore Quarterly Revenues $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Various OFS Company Offshore-Focused Product Lines This is a graph of the product line sales of several offshore focused firms. Decline is accelerating. Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16
10 Canadian Drilling 90 Footage (Millions)
11 Canadian Drilling $25B Footage (Millions) $14B $8B
12 Takeaway #2
13 Oilfield E/S Markets $500,000 Global Revenues of All OFS Companies (Millions) $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 Global OFS sales bottom in 2016, down >50% from the 2014 peak is up 8%. $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,
14 Oilfield E/S Markets - Land $300,000 Global Revenues of Land-Focused OFS Companies (Millions) $250,000 $200,000 Global OFS sales of land-focused products/services is the bottom and 2017 is up 20%. $150,000 $100,000 $50,
15 Oilfield E/S Markets - Offshore $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Global Revenues of Offshore-Focused OFS Companies (Millions) Global OFS sales of offshore-focused products/services is down and 2017 continues down. $150,000 $100,000 $50,
16 Frac Markets $50,000 Global Revenues of All Frac Companies (Millions) $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,
17 Frac Markets $50,000 Global Revenues of All Frac Companies (Millions) $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,
18 Lift Markets $18,000 Global Revenues of Artificial Lift Companies (Millions) $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,
19 Lift Markets $18,000 Global Revenues of Artificial Lift Companies (Millions) $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,
20 Land Drilling Markets $40,000 Global Revenues of Land Contract Drillers (Millions) $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,
21 Offshore Drilling Markets $70,000 Global Revenues of Offshore Contract Drillers (Millions) $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,
22 Offshore Drilling Markets $70,000 Global Revenues of Offshore Contract Drillers (Millions) $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,
23 Takeaway #3
24 Total US Land Oilfield Market $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 Regional Markets (Millions) US land market hits $42B in 2016, down from $160B in is up almost 50% Gulf Coast $8,949 $10,460 $8,099 $4,471 $6,298 West Coast $5,319 $5,704 $2,858 $1,412 $1,850 Northeast $12,238 $13,659 $10,343 $5,350 $7,664 Other Rockies $14,242 $14,284 $7,668 $2,844 $3,907 Bakken $19,241 $21,603 $10,796 $3,807 $4,948 MidContinent $25,582 $24,997 $13,930 $6,874 $9,255 East Texas/North Louisiana $3,745 $4,498 $3,398 $1,747 $2,453 Permian Basin $24,985 $33,937 $20,226 $11,386 $15,842 South Texas/Eagle Ford $27,017 $29,649 $15,752 $5,804 $7,486
25 US Land Horizontal Wells 50,000 New Wells Drilled EOG Pioneer ContRes 45,000 XTO 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Others CHK Concho Whiting Anadarko 15,000 10,000 5,000 PDC Newfield Conoco Vertical 25,417 22,316 12,466 4,780 6,207 Horizontal 20,236 23,674 16,029 8,169 10,520 QEP BHP Marathon Parsley Encana Noble Hess Range Oasis Extraction Apache Horizontal wells only. Data derived from DrillingInfo.
26 Total US Land Directional $4,500 $4,000 Directional Drilling Market (Millions) Market Share of Directional Drillers Other 16% BHI 12% $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 DrillTech 2% Pro-D 2% Geoguide 2% Archer 2% Crescent 2% DDC 2% Phoenix 3% HAL 10% SLB 9% $1,000 Precision 3% $ Market $3,701 $4,026 $2,483 $1,159 $1,557 Cathedral 3% Premier 3% CJES 4% MS 4% WFT 4% Ensign 5% Leam 6% SciDrlg 7%
27 Total US Land Frac Hydraulic Fracturing Market (Millions) Market Share of Frac Companies HAL $35,000 SLB $30,000 BHI CJES $25,000 FTS $20,000 WFT $15,000 Cudd 77NRG $10,000 PTEN $5, Market $23,727 $29,053 $15,931 $7,795 $11,512 Calfrac Trican Basic Archer Others
28 Permian Proppant Permian Basin proppant demand peaked in 2014 at 48B pounds. That year, the longest laterals, averaging 10,000, consumed 10B of the 48B. In 2016, the basin will consume 34B pounds. The longest laterals, again averaging 10,000, will consume 20B of the 34B. This year, proppant intensity, combined with an increasing concentration of 10,000 laterals, is causing sand demand to rise year over year despite drilling activity being the lowest in B 9B 5B B 10B 9B > B 11B 20B TOTAL 48B 30B 34B
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