Ile-de-France office market

Transcription

1 Ile-de-Frace office arket Q Retal values / Iediate supply Althouh the ecooic cliate appears bleak, busiess activity i 2012 will be drive by ore opportuistic strateies. The supply ad dead situatio is expected to becoe eve ore balaced this year with hiher take-up of secod had properties. With the ecooy set to iprove i 2013, ew developets ay becoe very souht after. Hervé Blachet - Maai Director Despite the fact that the Europea real estate arket declied towards the ed of the year, takeup for 2011 was well above the te-year averae (2,200,000 sq). A total of 2,441,798 sq was take-up i Ile-de-Frace, represeti a y-o-y rowth of 14%. A slowdow i letti activity was oted at the ed of the year, with oly 495,955 sq of space take, which is a 35% declie o the third quarter. There was a clear retur of lare office occupiers i 2011, with sixtee deals over 20,000 sq sied, copared to eiht i There were also a siificat uber of deals over 5,000 sq i Paris ad the Ier Suburbs, several of which were turkey. Despite a rowi letti arket, supply reais relatively stable. By the ed of 2011, it had reached 3,609,000 sq. The arket reais fluid with a stable vacacy rate of 7%. For the past two years, the appeal of ew ad turkey office space has icreased the speed at which vacat space is bei see as outdated. Prie ret i the CBD icreased by 60 at the ed of the year reachi 800/sq/year, which is a 6% rise copared to the ed of Hiher rets have bee accepted i deals sied i Paris, outside the CBD, i Rue de l Uiversité. Averae rets also icreased by 3% to 320/sq/year at the ed of 2011.

2 Ecooy, letti arket ad outlook Ecooy The debt crisis plued Europe back ito ucertaity i the fourth quarter of 2011, putti a strai o Europea relatios ad coproisi rowth forecasts. Give the slowdow i the secod half of the year, both i ters of sales icreases ad job creatio, Frace s eployet rate is ot expected to iprove. The forecasts for busiess ivestet i early 2012 have therefore bee revised dowwards. The ueployet rate has picked up pace this year after it declied i 2011 (9.5% by year-ed). GDP rowth for Frace was forecasted at -0.1% i the fourth quarter of Should rowth reai at 0% i the coi oths, it would ea that a recessio i 2012 is possible. Despite the rowi cocer, the Ile-de-Frace ay be able to hold its head above water. Busiess leaders are baki o cofidece ad activity reaii steady. GDP ad iflatio looki to reduce costs, oce aai, the ai driver of dead was ratioalisatio ad cosolidatio. As a result, the public ad para-overetal sectors were particularly iportat i the lare deals arket. The hih value-added services sector (aely lawyers, fiacial services, ad busiess services) has bee the drivi force i the arket. Their requireets, which priarily iclude hih-ed office space, have helped to icrease prie rets i Paris, which i the fourth quarter, stood at 800 i the CBD. Despite the overall dowward tred, especially i periphery arkets, the averae ret for Ile-de-Frace also icreased to 320/sq/year by the ed of the year. Neotiatios were straied i 2011 ad have favoured teats, who have bee icreasily deadi, especially with reard to larer deals. Ladlords are offeri icetives equivalet to betwee six weeks ad two oths ret-free per fixed year lease. Fially, property strateies are uderway aost ed-users who have their ow fuds ad who wish to save o retal costs. The curret lack of supply is holdi back this type of trasactio. Source: Cosesus Forecasts Letti arket The worsei ecooic cliate has ot overwheled the retal arket i 2011, with take-up reachi 2,441,798 sq. This represets a aual icrease of 14%, which is 11% hiher tha the te-year averae. Nevertheless, activity has bee erratic, hit by ecooic coditios ad fiacial developets throuhout the year. Despite this icrease, iediate supply was relatively stable at 3,609,000 sq at year-ed. The arket as a whole is fluid with a vacacy rate of 7% ad ew developet starts are eliible. Locally, however, soe arkets are sufferi fro a lack of ew supply. The ai focus of the activity idetified i 2010, cotiued throuh 2011, focusi pricipally o the capital s core busiess ad those areas offeri ew stock withi the Ier Suburbs, especially i the west. Oe key feature of the arket i 2011 was the retur of very lare deals, allowi soe arkets to reai resiliet. I a situatio where occupiers are priarily Outlook Coditios are set to be difficult for the coi quarters. I 2012, the retal arket i Ile-de-Frace should slow ad be priarily drive by opportuistic iitiatives. is expected to drop by 10% to 15% i Ratioalisatio of costs will cotiue to be the ai driver of dead. However, the iability to see where atioal ad iteratioal arkets are oi, will liit the uber of lare deals that o ahead, but this will work i favour of both sall ad secod had properties. Thus, 2012 should see a icrease i the uber of extesios ad a drop i cosolidatios/erers. Activity i Ile-de-Frace will be ore spread out ad will also be ore iflueced by SMEs. Marketi of sall ad ediu size offices should allow for better take-up of supply, while there should be o icrease i ew developets or office developet copletios. Give the iportace of the supply of secod had preises i all Paris arkets, eotiatios should be straied i 2012 ad led theselves ore to edusers. The frequecy ad size of icetives will therefore reai uchaed. A certai pressure o retal values is aticipated ad could cause betwee a 2% ad 3% decrease, particularly for prie office space. Ile-de-Frace office arket - Q

3 Paris CBD, Souther Paris, Easter ad Norther Paris Paris CBD The ed of 2011 brouht with it a dowtur i the fourth quarter i which 84,108 sq were let (a drop of -29% i oe quarter). Despite this, the CBD arket was vibrat oce aai with 400,997 sq let i 2011, aki it the fourth ost successful year of the decade. Althouh activity was drive by sall ad ediu sized offices, it was lare deals that were particularly preset towards the ed of the year, aouti to 44% of take-up. A total of six deals exceedi 5,000 sq have bee sied sice the beii of the year, ost of which were located i the 8th arrodisseet. Eve thouh available supply rose by 1.5% i oe quarter, the y-o-y tred is dow (-16.5%). With a vacacy rate of 4.5% at the ed of the year, the arket lacked fluidity due to a lack of supply. The prie retal arket rose to 800/sq/year copared to 740/sq/year i the third quarter. Souther Paris has declied by 15% q-o-q, with 71,310 sq let i the fourth quarter of The arket i Souther Paris had a record year with 313,920 sq let, beefiti firstly fro the retal arket s shift towards ore traditioal busiess districts ad, secodly, fro the retur of lare occupiers to the arketplace. This eas that deals over 5,000 sq represeted ore tha a third of take-up i The stock of available supply was dow to 210,000 sq by year-ed, represeti a decrease of 9.5% over oe quarter ad 28% over the year. With a vacacy rate of alost 4%, there is curretly a lack of supply i the arket. As i 2001, Souther Paris prie ret of 830/sq/year was hiher tha that of the CBD ( 800/sq/year) due to a uber of deals o Rue de l Uiversité i the 7th arrodisseet. Norther Paris has see quarterly icreases of 49%, ad i the fourth quarter this aouted to 34,032 sq out of a total of 134,402 sq sice the beii of the year. The arket cotiued to be drive by sall ad ediu-sized deals. For the secod cosecutive year occupiers have overwhelily chose this sector, which offers both traditioal offices i cetral Paris ad larer preises i periphery arkets. Iediate supply was stable i the fourth quarter, but dow 4% copared to the ed of A vacacy rate of 3.5% deostrates the lack of fluidity i this arket. were o the rise at the ed of the year aouti to a averae of 319/sq/year ad 417/sq/year for prie rets. Ile-de-Frace office arket - Q

4 La Defese, Wester Crescet, North Ier Suburb La Defese Despite a sliht recovery i the fourth quarter, i which 30,940 sq was let, La Defese cotiued to be visibly shake i 2011 with a total of 121,845 sq of take-up, which was eve worse tha the 149,597 sq i Ecooic ucertaities have ade ajor occupiers wary, ad as a result they prefer to opt for ewer ad cheaper optios i the Ier Suburbs. Thus, the iediate supply i La Defese cotiued to row i 2011 ad showed a quarterly icrease of 9.5% at yeared. 209,000 sq were available of which over 150,000 sq exceeded 5,000 sq. Few developet copletios are i the pipelie for 2012, ad this should liit the rowth of available supply over the coi oths. Prie ret icreased ad by the ed of the year it had reached 569/sq/year. Wester Crescet Whilst the retal arket i the fourth quarter was stable (111,479 sq of take-up), if ot a little dow (-5.5%) o the third quarter, the Wester Crescet recorded a successful year. I 2011, 585,808 sq were let, which was 38% ore tha i was drive by deals exceedi 5,000 sq. Meawhile, iediate supply totalled 932,000 sq, which was a rise of 7% i a sile quarter ad 19.5% copared to the ed of There are a lare uber of properties over 5,000 sq o the arket i the Wester Crescet (ore tha thirty), which are aily located i the Norther ad Souther Suburbs ad i the Peri- Défese district. Whilst a vacacy rate of 6.5% i the Wester Crescet was fairly low, there is oly a lack of supply i the Peri-Défese district. Retal values fell slihtly i the fourth quarter, while the prie ret icreased by five euros to 455/sq/year. k North Ier Suburb After a outstadi third quarter, i which 136,532 sq were let, the fourth quarter was eliible with oly 14,720 sq let. The Norther Ier Suburbs had a record year, with a total of 173,928 sq i 2011 (+23% o 2010). I 2011, the arket was propped up by three key deals, icludi oe sied by SFR i the third quarter, totalli 124,000 sq aloe. Iediate supply has ot bee seriously affected by the low take-up, priarily due to turkey deals. Available supply, which stood at 265,000 sq at year-ed, is coprised of fiftee properties that are o the arket, all of which exceed 5,000 sq, of which te are located i Sait- Deis. With a vacacy rate of 13%, the arket is clearly over supplied. Averae ret fell slihtly to 201/sq/year, while prie rets reaied stable at 285/sq/year. Ile-de-Frace office arket - Q

5 East ad South Ier Suburb, Outer Suburb East Ier Suburb i the fourth quarter reached 12,190 sq with lettis up 146% i oe quarter ad 15% y-o-y. There was liited letti activity i 2011 with a total of 45,970 sq of space let. The arket i the Easter Ier Suburbs has see very little busiess sice Oe of the ost siificat deals of the year icluded the Apria deal, which was a 5,800 sq letti i Terra Nova i Motreuil. Available supply did ot udero ay siificat chaes ad was at 121,000 sq at the ed of the year, ad despite a stable fourth quarter, it shruk by 2.5% copared to the ed of Four properties over 5,000 sq, totalli over 80,000 sq are curretly available (two of which are i Baolet). With a vacacy rate of 8.5% at year-ed, the arket is ot oversupplied. The averae ret fell slihtly to 194/sq/year, while prie ret reais relatively stable at 300/sq/year. South Ier Suburb There was a 57% drop i take-up i three oths i the fourth quarter, with 21,329 sq let. reached 74,866 sq i 2011, which was a 41% iproveet copared to Whilst the arket was eerally propped up by sall ad ediu-sized deals, there were oetheless four key deals that accouted for early half of take-up i 2011, the two ost iportat of which were i Motroue totalli over 30,000 sq (Parc Azur ad Cap Sud). I ters of available supply, the fourth quarter echoed that of the third with a total of 158,000 sq. This icludes eiht properties exceedi 5,000 sq, three of which are located i Ivry-sur-Seie. The Souther Ier Suburbs arket is eerally fluid with a 9% vacacy rate. The prie ret is dow fro 352/sq/year to 330/sq/year i oe quarter, while the averae retal price has reaied relatively stable. Outer Suburb The ed of the year was sluish ad the area recorded 97,169 sq of take-up i the fourth quarter, brii the total for the year up to 482,910 sq. Despite this, the retal arket i the Outer Suburbs was up by 40% ad twety deals of ore tha 5,000 sq were sied over 2011, totalli ore tha 300,000 sq. The ost iportat deal was the relocatio of Carrefour to its ew 86,000 sq headquarters i Massy. Cosequetly, available supply decreased (-3% i oe quarter ad -2% over the year) but oly oderately due to turkey deals, eai that by the ed of 2011 it stood at 1,194,000 sq. The vacacy rate was 6.5%, due to the scarcity of supply i Roissy ad the rest of the Outer Suburbs ad retal values were declii at the ed of the year. The averae ret was 140/sq/year, while prie ret reaied at 285/sq/year. k Ile-de-Frace office arket - Q

6 Ile-de-Frace office arket Subarkets For further iforatio please cotact: Hervé Blachet PDG hblachet@savills.fr Rayod GereGradpierre Directeur Bureaux r@savills.fr Pierre Atoie Matrad Directeur Bureaux paatrad@savills.fr Lopes Marie-Josée Lydia Brissy Research jlopes@savills.fr Research Europe lbrissy@savills.fr Savills is a leadi lobal real estate service provider listed o the Lodo Stock Exchae. The copay established i 1855, has a rich heritae with urivalled rowth. It is a copay that leads rather tha follows, ad ow has over 180 offices ad associates throuhout the Aericas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa ad the Middle East. A uique cobiatio of sector kowlede ad etrepreeurial flair ive cliets access to real estate expertise of the hihest calibre. We are rearded as a iovative-thiki oraisatio backed up with excellet eotiati skills. Savills chooses to focus o a defied set of cliets, therefore offeri a preiu service to oraisatios with who we share a coo oal. Savills takes a loter view to real estate ad works hard to ivest i lo ter ad strateic relatioships ad is syoyous with a hih quality service offeri ad a preiu brad. This bulleti is for eeral iforative purposes oly. Whilst every effort has bee ade to esure its accuracy, Savills accepts o liability whatsoever for ay direct or cosequetial loss arisi fro its use. The bulleti is strictly copyriht ad reproductio of the whole or part of it i ay for is prohibited without writte perissio fro Savills Research. (c) Savills Ltd jauary 2012.