Sala á sjávarafurðum.l Bandaríkjanna 2016
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1 UTANRÍKISRÁÐUNEYTIÐ Sala á sjávarafurðum.l Bandaríkjanna 2016 Hlynur Guðjónsson Aðalræðismaður og viðskiptafulltrúi
2 Markaðurinn ECONOMICS The U.S. economy underperformed vs forecasts the 1 st quarter of 2016 and 4qtr GDP increased at an annual rate by 0.8% and 0.5%. The GDP did not bounce back in 2 nd quarter at 1.2% and expected GDP growth rate is at 2.6% in 3 rd quarter, 2.3% in 4 th quarter with annual growth of 1.5% according to Philadelphia Fed rd quarter forecast. The forecast for 2017 is at a 2.3% GDP growth with infla.on at 1.1% and 2.5%, The IMF GDP forecast for 2017 is 2.5% The labor market has returned to normal with forecasted 4.8% annual unemployment rate for 2016 vs 5.3% in 2015 according to Philadelphia Fed. IMF expects the unemployment rate to be 4.9% in Personal consump.on expenditures growth was at 1.6% 1 st quarter 2016 vs 2.6% 4 th quarter 2015 and 4.2% 2 nd qtr The forecast for 2016 is 3.1% growth and 2.6% in Real export of goods and services decreased by - 0.9% in 1 st quarter 2016 vs - 2.2% in 4 th quarter Export decreased by - 1.2% in 2 quarter 2016 and marks the fourth consecu.ve quarter falling exports. The forecast is 1.8% increase in export and 5.4% imports in 2016, 3.4% and 7.5% respec.vely in 2017 according to IMF. The federal budget deficit fell sharply when decisions were made in 2013 to cut federal spending, amoun.ng to 2.1 trillion. The fiscal cliff agreement comes to and end in US government debt as a percentage of GDP is forecasted at 107.9% in 2016 and 107.8% in IMF states that the gross debt percentage of GDP including unpaid pension liabili.es is around 128% Households are devo.ng less of their income to debt on more on private consump.on and household debt has fallen steadily since the crisis. Household debt was 13% 1 st quarter 2008 vs 10% 1 st quarter Mortgage debt was 7% vs 5.5% respec.vely. Personal savings is increasing. Sales of new single- family homes year to date (June) percentage change is 25.4% same as 2015/2014. House prices will rise between 4-5 percent in 2016 a bit slower than 2015 but well above infla.on rates. The US dollar is well supported give the rela.ve strength of the US economy. According to IMF the current level of the dollar is overvalued by %. The US dollar:euro average will be around US$ 1.09: 1 in 2016 vs US$ 1.33: 1 in 2015 and forecasted US$ 1.07: 1 in Economist Intelligence Unit, U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, United States Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Sta.s.cs, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Federal Reserve Board, Interna.onal Monetary Fund, Euromonitor Interna.onal, World Tourism Organiza.on, Iceland Tourist Board and Iceland Sta.s.cs.
3 Únlutningur.l Bandaríkjanna
4 Aukið virði únlutnings 45 Total Export to the US in ISK Milljarðar ISK Heildar únlutningur.l Bandaríkjanna milli ára 2015 og 2016 jókst um tæp 18% úr 35.4 milljörðum í Aukningin felst í aukningu á únlutningi á vatni (400), tækni og lækninga vörum (1 ma), kísiljárni (1.45 ma), flugvélum (500), sjávarafurðum (760) og öðrum vörum (2 ma). Toppar 2006, 2008 og 2010 eru iðnvörur tæki og vörur.l lækninga og flugvélar Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands
5 Mikilvægi BNA eykst Afar mikilvægur markaður í dag fyrir lax (37%), silung (35%) og ýsu (32%) Mikilvægi markaðarins eykst hvað varðar þorsk og rúm 9% af heildarúnlutningi er.l BNA. Ekki verið jafn háy hlunall síðan Hér skip.r mestu ferskur fiskur. 73% samdráyur hvað varðar hlunall únlutnings.l Bandaríkjanna af heildarúnlutningi frá Íslandi 80% samdráyur í þorski frá 2000 í lægsta punkt og 61% í ýsu Sjávarafurðir Þorskur Ýsa Lax Silungur 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
6 Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands & Seðlabanki Íslands Útflutningur sjávarafurða til Bandaríkjanna - Virði Milljarðar ISK Miðgengi USD vs ISK ISK styrkist um 8.5%
7 Þáyur sjávarafurða í únlutningi eykst Virði únlutnings jókst um 3.6% milli 2015/2016 og 15% í tonnum sama ~mabil Það hefur ekki verið selt jafn mikið af sjávarafurðum í tonnum síðan 2005 Sjávarafurðir eru tæp 30% af virði únlutnings.l BNA 2012, 52% 2013, 56% 2014, 60% 2014 og 53% Ú4lutningur sjávarafurða =l Bandaríkjanna - Tonn Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands
8 Sjávarafurðir - Únlutningur.l Bandaríkjanna Mes. þorsk únlutningur síðan Í þúsundum tonna Þorskur Ýsa Ufsi 0 Í hundruðum tonna Únlutningur.l Bandaríkjanna Lax Silungur Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands
9 Fersk fiskur Þúsundir tonna Miiljarðar ISK ,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Fersk únlutningur - Virði Ferskfisk únlutningur - Tonn Virði únlutnings á ferskum fiski jókst um rúm 14% milli 15/16 Magn únlutnings á ferskum fiski jókst um rúmt 21% sama ~ma USD féll um 8.5% gagnvart ISK (miðgengi) milli 15/16 Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands
10 Salniskur Saltað - heild í tonnum Þorskur Ufsi Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands
11 Fisk olía Virði 2016 er 1.2 mlja Fisk olía - Tonn Fisk olía Heimild: Hagstofa Íslands
12 Samantekt Bandaríski markaðurinn er ekki lengur í lægð; hagvöxtur eykst, neytendur eru jákvæðir, atvinnuleysi dregst saman og kaupgeta og laun hækka. Markaðurinn er í mikilli nálægð við Ísland með góðar samgöngur og langa viðskiptasögu. Ísland stendur vel í huga neytenda í Bandaríkjunum Magn sjávarafurða eykst um 15% en gengi krónunnar hefur mögulega áhrif á virði afurða sem eykst á sama ~ma um 3.6%. Únlutningur frá Íslandi.l Bandaríkjanna hrynur e ir aldamót 2000 og tekur ekki við sér fyrr en % samdráyur í tonnum frá % samdráyur í þorski og 76% í laxi en 80% aukning í sölu á bleikju. Sala á loðnu og síld hverfur og sala á humri er óveruleg. Stærs. hlu. aukningar er sala á fersk fiski. Þorskur er.l a ur á markaðnum og sala á laxi og silungi helst stöðu Það hefur ekki verið selt jafn mikið af sjávarafurðum í tonnum séð.l Bandaríkjanna síðan 2005; hrunið milli 2005 og 2006 er að mestu vegna broyhvarfs loðnu. Möguleg tækifæri í únlutningi á salniski (þorskur og ufsi) Hverfur nánast
13 Seafood Expo North America Kaupstefnur í Kanada og BNA Seafood Expo North America Bás á sýningunni síðan fyrirtæki taka þáy í básnum 2017 Sjávarafurðakaupstefnur 2017: Kaupstefnur Chicago (mars) og Toronto (nóvember) 2016: Kaupstefna í New York borg samningar upp á rúmlega 800 milljónir á ári og samningar upp á rúmlega 1.3 milljarða í pípunum. 2014: Halifax, Edmonton and Calgary samningar upp á rúmlega 350 milljónir á ári. 2013: Toronto samningar upp á um 800 milljónir á ársvísu.
14 Vatn, áfengir drykkir og landbúnaðarvörur Únlutningur á vatni var 219 milljónir árið milljarðar árið Milljónir ISK
15 Únlutningur á áfengum drykkjum var næsta 0 kr. Árið 2011 en 350 milljónir árið 2016 (inn í tölunar vantar Reyka Vodka sem er fluy.l U.K. og tappað þar. BNA er stærs. markaður Reyka Vodka) Þessi vöruflokkur hefur alla burði.l að reynast Íslandi dýrmætur Milljónir ISK
16 Sala á lambakjö. hefur verið nátengd gengi. Milljónir ISK
17 Sala á mjólkurvörum hefur verið dræm en nýy vörumerki Icelandic Provisions kemur sterkt inn Milljónir ISK
18 Íslenskar afurðir standa vel í huga neytenda
19 TOP-OF-MIND ASSOCIATIONS Ice, snow, cold Nature, landscape Music, culture Other Other: 11% - Pure/clean/beautiful 10% - Green/warm 5% - Positive remarks 4% - Volcanoes 2% - Fish, seafood, whales What is the first thing that comes to mind when you think of Iceland? (%, open-end)
20 56% INTEREST IN PRODUCTS 48% 39% 37% 36% 31% 29% How interested are you in each of the following products from Iceland? (%, 8-10 on a 10-point scale)
21 How interested are you in seafood from Iceland? (%, 8-10 on a 10-point scale) Interest in SEAFOOD is correlated with age, gender, income, educa.on, frequent travel, and the Outdoor Type.
22 SEAFOOD ORIGIN There is a slight decline in consumers interest in the origin of fish from all countries. Interest in the fish from Iceland is at 45% in 2016, as compared to 50% in How much would your opinion be affected by the origin of the fish? ( makes me really want the fish 8-10 on a 10-point scale)
23 OPINIONS OF SEAFOOD FROM ICELAND 48% of respondents say seafood from Iceland is FRESH and HIGH QUALITY, consistent with results from 2014 Which of the following describes what you think of seafood from Iceland?
24 Hlynur Guðjónsson /
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