Industry Update. ACI-NA Winter Board of Directors Meeting February 7, 2018 Palm Beach Gardens, FL
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1 Industry Update ACI-NA Winter Board of Directors Meeting February 7, 2018 Palm Beach Gardens, FL
2 1Q2007 2Q2007 3Q2007 4Q2007 1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 1Q2014 2Q2014 3Q2014 4Q2014 1Q2015 2Q2015 3Q2015 4Q2015 1Q2016 2Q2016 3Q2016 4Q2016 1Q2017 2Q2017 3Q2017 4Q2017 U.S. & Canadian GDP Annual Growth 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% U.S.* Canada** -1% -2% -3% Change from Q U.S.: 2.5% Change from Q Canada: 2.9% -4% -5% U.S. GDP annual growth increased from 1.8% in Q to 2.5% in Q The annual growth rate for Q was driven by consumer spending, exports, higher government spending and nonresidential fixed investment. Growth in the Canadian economy was mainly due to household spending and exports of goods. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), 01/30/2018 Statistics Canada, 03/13/2018 Note: annual growth rate is the change over the same quarter of the previous year *United States real GDP based on 2009 chained dollar value **Canada real GDP based on 2007 chained dollar value 2
3 U.S. & Canadian Unemployment Rate 10% U.S. Canada 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in December 2017, unchanged from the previous month s 17-year low. The labor force participation rate, at 62.7%, was unchanged over the month and over the year. In Canada, the unemployment rate declined to 5.7%, the lowest unemployment rate since The greatest gains in employment occurred in Quebec and Alberta. Source: Trading Economics, 01/30/2018 4
4 U.S. Dollars per Barrel Crude and Jet Fuel Prices Jet Crude Crack Jet Forecast Crude Forecast Crack Forecast Forecast by EIA as of 08/08/17 Crude oil prices reached the highest level in more than three years during the first week in January. This was attributed to the shutdown of the Forties Pipeline in the North Sea due to a crack in the pipeline and a pipeline outage. At the same time the demand of crude oil continued to increase, which also affected the price increase. Source: EIA, 01/30/2018 4
5 U.S. Aviation Traffic 2016 vs Jan Dec 2016 Jan Dec 2017 Change Total Passengers million million 3.4% Domestic Passengers million million 3.0% International Passengers million million 5.1% Flights (thousands) 9, , % Available Seat Miles 1,664.8 billion 1,739.4 billion 4.5% Avg. Load Factor percent percent 0.03 pts. Avg. Flight Stage Length* miles miles 1.4% For 2017, passenger traffic grew by 3.4% compared to 2016, with a greater percentage increase in international traffic compared to domestic traffic. While available seat miles increased by 4.5%, there was only a moderate increase of 0.3% in the number of flights. This shows that airlines continued their upgauging strategy in Load factor improve marginally from 2016 by 0.03 percentage points. *U.S. Air Carriers only Source: BTS T-100 Segment data, 03/16/2018 5
6 Millions Canadian Passenger Traffic 14 Domestic International + Transborder Based on ACI World estimates from the Big 8 Canada airports*, Canadian traffic increased by 6.1% in 2017 from Domestic traffic grew 4.3% while international and transborder traffic grew 8.0%. At 12.1%, the month of June for 2017 had the greatest year-over-year increase in traffic from * Big 8 Canada airports: YYZ, YVR, YUL, YYC, YEG, YOW, YWG, YHZ Source: ACI World PaxFlash 6
7 Capacity: Change in Scheduled Flights and Seats February 2018 vs. February % Flights Seats 7% 6.7% 6% 5% 5.3% 4.9% 4% 3% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 3.5% 2.8% 2% 1.8% 1% 0% -1% -2% -1.3% Large Medium Small Non-Hub Canada Source: Diio Mi, 01/30/18 7
8 Capacity: Change in Scheduled Dom. and Intl. Flights February 2018 vs. February % Domestic International 22.3% 20% 15% 10% 5% 1.8% 2.0% 3.5% 3.1% 2.5% 3.7% 0% -1.9% -5% -10% -7.0% -4.6% Large Medium Small Non-Hub Canada Source: Diio Mi, 01/26/18 8
9 Capacity: Change in Scheduled Flights and Seats June 2018 vs. June % Flights Seats 8% 7% 7.7% 7.4% 6% 5% 5.4% 6.2% 5.4% 4% 4.0% 3% 3.2% 2.8% 2% 2.2% 1% 1.2% 0% Large Medium Small Non-Hub Canada Source: Diio Mi, 03/16/18 9
10 Capacity: Change in Scheduled Dom. and Intl. Flights June 2018 vs. June % Domestic International 43.5% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1.9% 3.8% 2.9% 1.3% 6.2% 4.9% 3.7% -0.4% 6.3% -10% Large Medium Small Non-Hub Canada Source: Diio Mi, 03/16/18 10
11 3Q2007 4Q2007 1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009 1Q2010 2Q2010 3Q2010 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011 1Q2012 2Q2012 3Q2012 4Q2012 1Q2013 2Q2013 3Q2013 4Q2013 1Q2014 2Q2014 3Q2014 4Q2014 1Q2015 2Q2015 3Q2015 4Q2015 1Q2016 2Q2016 3Q2016 4Q2016 1Q2017 2Q2017 3Q2017 Average U.S. Airfare and Percent Change Year over Year Avg. U.S. Dom Fare % Change YoY $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Average domestic fares for the third quarter of 2017 decreased 2.6% year over year to $336. Airline revenue from ticket sales remained at 75.0% for the second and third quarters of 2017, compared to 88.9% in Over the years, airlines have been unbundling services that were previously included in the airfare. Note: Unadjusted for inflation Source: BTS, 01/23/
12 Average Canadian Domestic Airfares (10 Major Cities) Q (CAD) Q (CAD) Change Calgary % Edmonton* N/A N/A Halifax % Montréal % Ottawa % Regina % Saskatoon % Toronto % Vancouver % Winnipeg % Canada % * Data for Edmonton suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act Source: Statistics Canada, 01/22/
13 Billions U.S. Airline Ancillary Revenue (Q3) $4.0 $3.6 Reservation Change/Cancellation Fees Miscellaneous Operating Revenues* Baggage Fees +9.0% +16.7% -2.7% $3.2 $2.8 $2.4 $2.0 $1.6 $1.2 $0.8 $0.4 $0.0 $0.12 $0.60 $ % $0.35 $ % +9.3% $0.74 $0.91 $0.74 $ % $0.90 $ % $0.91 $ % +2.1% $0.88 $0.96 $1.33 $1.29 $1.02 $1.74 $1.10 $1.58 $1.22 $1.79 $0.43 $0.61 $0.59 $0.60 $0.65 $0.73 $0.76 $0.76 $0.73 $0.72 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Note: * Includes fees paid to carriers for collection of PFC fee, transportation of pets/animals, frequent flyer related programs, WiFi, food and beverages, and others Overall, ancillary revenue increased 9.0% in Q from Q3 2016, driven by increases in Miscellaneous Operating Revenues and Baggage Fees. Since 2007, Baggage Fees have increased more than tenfold as airlines began charging for the first checked bag on domestic flights in Source: BTS, 01/24/
14 Airport-Related Cost to U.S. Airlines Operating Expenses Landing Fees Airport Rents* 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 3.0% 2.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.8% 2.7% 2.0% 1.0% 1.7% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 2.1% 2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% Note: * Includes all airline rental fees (i.e. real estate, off airport property) excluding flying operation rentals (i.e. aircraft rentals) Airport-related expenses represented 4.6% of U.S. airlines operating expenses in 2016, a slight decrease compared to This was despite an increase in total operating expenses by 3.7% in Source: BTS, 01/24/
15 Billions Airline Profitability Forecast $ $16.0 $14.0 $12.0 $10.0 $8.0 $6.0 $4.0 $2.0 Region North America $ 15.6 B $ 16.4 B Europe $ 9.8 B $ 11.5 B Asia-Pacific $ 8.3 B $ 9.0 B Latin America $ 0.7 B $ 0.9 B Middle East $ 0.3 B $ 0.6 B Africa ($ 0.1 B) ($ 0.1 B) Total $ 34.5 B $ 38.4 B $0.0 -$2.0 Source: IATA, 01/29/2018 North America Europe Asia-Pacific Latin America Middle East Africa The airline industry continues to perform strongly in 2018, with a net profit forecast to rise to $38.4 billion. On average, each departing passenger is expected to generate a net profit of $8.90, up from $8.45 in While rising costs have put pressure on profits, North American airlines are forecast to continue leading the industry in profitability, generating close to half of the industry s total profits. 15
16 North American Airlines Finances Net Profit/Loss 2016 vs Carrier $814 million $1,028 million $220 million $195 million $2,676 million $1,919 million $4,373 million $3,577 million $235 million $364 million $759 million $1,147 million $2,244 million $3,488 million $265 million $421 million $2,263 million $2,131 million CAD 876 million CAD 295 million CAD 2,038 million CAD 284 million The three largest U.S. airlines, American Airlines, Delta and United, as well as Allegiant, posted lower profits in 2017 compared to This was driven by increased operating expenses, in particular fuel and labor. For other U.S. airlines, factors such as strong passenger demand and tax benefits from tax reform legislation offset increases in operating expenses, resulting in higher profits for In Canada, Air Canada attributed its better financial performance in 2017 to its successful network growth coupled with cost discipline. WestJet s lower profit was attributed to increased operating expenses such as fuel expense, depreciation and amortization. Source: Airlines Quarterly Results Releases 16
17 Special thanks to BEA, BTS, Diio Mi, DOT, FAA, IATA and Statistics Canada for their contributions to this presentation. For comments or questions, please contact: Liying Gu or Ashley Sng ACI-NA (202)
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