Research Article CGE Simulation Analysis on the Labor Transfer, Agricultural Technical Progress, and Economic Development in Chongqing

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1 e Scientific Wold Jounal, Aticle ID , 8 pages Reseach Aticle CGE Simulation Analysis on the Labo Tansfe, Agicultual Technical Pogess, and Economic Development in Chongqing Heng Wang and Maosheng Ran School of Economics and Business Administation, Chongqing Univesity, Chongqing , China Coespondence should be addessed to Heng Wang; cqwangheng@163.com Received 8 Mach 2014; Accepted 28 Mach 2014; Published 14 Apil 2014 Academic Edito: Xiaofei Zhao Copyight 2014 H. Wang and M. Ran. This is an open access aticle distibuted unde the Ceative Commons Attibution License, which pemits unesticted use, distibution, and epoduction in any medium, povided the oiginal wok is popely cited. The basic stuctue of a CGE model dividing Mainland China into two pats, including Chongqing and est egions, is descibed. Based on this CGE model, both the unilateal impact and collaboative impact of two policies, agicultual technical pogess and suppoting policies fo impoving ual labo tansfe on the economic development in Chongqing, ae simulated and analyzed. The esults demonstate that compaed with the sum of each unilateal policy effect, the collaboation of two policies has moe effective impact on facilitating the labo tansfe, pomoting egional economic gowth, and impoving income and welfae of uban and ual esidents. 1. Intoduction The pomotion of ual suplus labo tansfe plays an impotant ole in China s economic development unde the dual economic system. Since China s efoming and opening up, the tansfe of ual labo fom agicultue to nonagicultual sectos in both East China with elatively developed economy and Midwest China with elatively undedeveloped economy will impove the labo foces allocation, incease labo poductivity significantly, and facilitate the economic development [1]. Howeve, the lage-scale ual labo tansfe and slow gowth of labo population decease the suplus labo esouces [2]. Coastal egions in East China and some egions in West China even suffeed fom labo shotage. Theefoe, smoothing the labo tansfe channels and inceasing labo supply ae vital to the sustainable economic development aound the whole county [3]. Among so many effecting factos of labo tansfe, the agicultual technical pogess can incease the agicultual poductivity and lowe labo demand of agicultue, thus being beneficial fo inceasing ual suplus labo supply, facilitating ual labo tansfe, and pomoting egional economic development. Theefoe, the compehensive evaluation of the effect on egional economic development caused by labo tansfe and agicultual technical pogess is of geat significance. Pevious elevant eseaches mainly focused on two aspects: inteaction between agicultual technical pogess and labo tansfe [4 6] as well as positive effect of labo tansfe on economic development [7 11]. These eseaches have two shotages. Fistly, they did not discuss the collaboative effect of ual labo tansfe and agicultual technical pogess on China s economic development. Secondly, most of them applied the econometic analysis which is limited in analyzing one aspect of economic system. Only few of them adopted the computable geneal equilibium (CGE) analysis that takes economic system as a whole and can depict the inteaction among economic subjects. Compaed with econometic analysis, the CGE analysis has bette systematicness and integality. Howeve, pevious eseaches using the CGE method paid few attentions on China s egional economies and the impotant ole of agicultual technical pogess in labo tansfe. Theefoe, a biegional CGE model of China is constucted in this pape, and a simulation analysis on the labo tansfe, agicultual technical pogess, and economic development in Chongqing is caied out based on this CGE model. The est of the pape is oganized as follows. The stuctue of the CGE model is pesented in Section 2. The simulation design and scenaios ae intoduced in Section 3. Thesimulation esults ae analyzed in Section 4. Basedonthekey

2 2 The Scientific Wold Jounal paametes of labo tansfe, a sensitivity analysis of CGE model is made in Section 5. Conclusions of this pape ae summaized in Section Oveview of the Model 2.1. Famewok of CGE Model. The CGE model used in this study divides Mainland China into two egions: Chongqing andestoftheegionsinchina.itinvolves12poduction sectos, including 1 agicultual secto and 11 nonagicultual sectos. Besides, it also involves 1 entepise secto, 1 secto of othe povinces, 1 foeign secto, 1 cental govenment, 1 local govenment, 1 uban household, and 1 ual household. The poduction factos include labo foce, capital, and land. Labo foce is classified into thee types: agicultual labo foce, ual nonagicultual labo foce, and uban labo foce, accoding to uban and ual aea as well as industy classification. Each egion of China has same model stuctue composed of 7 modules (Figue 1). In Figue 1, the full line epesents the income and expenditue flows of each model subject, while the dotted line epesents the flows of poduction factos and poducts. The poduction activity of the CGE model is modeled by using the multilaye nested (constant elasticity of substitution) function. In the fist level of nest, the goss output is composed of added value and the composite of intemediate inputs. The composite of intemediate inputs is then composed of all kinds of intemediate inputs in fom of a Leontief function. In the second level of nest, the added value combines the poduction factos land, capital, and labo foce. Theein, land is only used by agicultual secto, while capital is patially mobile acoss local sectos and egions. In the last level of nest, labo foce is composed of agicultual labo foce, ual nonagicultual labo foce, and uban labo foce. The agicultual labo foce is only used by agicultual secto, while the est ae used by nonagicultual sectos. The poduct maket is descibed in two aspects of supply and demand in this CGE model. In aspect of supply, the model follows the small county assumption in foeign tade and descibes the expot demand with demand cuve of constant elasticity. The output of each egion is allocated between domestic sales and expot though the CET (constant elasticity of tansfomation) function. Domestic sales ae allocated between local sales and inteegional expot though the CET function again. In aspect of demand, the total goods demand is composed of intemediate input demand, consumption demand of uban and ual esidents, consumption demand of cental and local govenments, and investment demand. The consumption demand of uban and ual esidents is depicted by the extend linea expenditue system (ELES), while the consumption demand of govenments (cental govenment and local govenment) and investment demand ae descibed by fixed-shae expenditue function. The CGE model applies the Amington assumption: domestic goods and impoted goods ae impefect substitutes and local goods and inteegional impoted goods ae impefect substitutes. The total goods demand is satisfied by composite goods which ae modeled by using the nested function. Composite goods ae composed of domestic composite goods and impoted goods, and then domestic composite goods ae composed of local goods and inteegional impoted goods. The CGE model is a ecusive dynamic model and its simulation time stats fom 2007 to Dynamics in the model oiginate fom poductive factos and poductivity changes. The macoclosue of the model involves 3 identities which keep balance of the following 3 macoeconomic accounts: investment saving, govenment budget, and balance of payments. In the investment-saving balance, the total investment is detemined by the available savings in the egion. In the govenmental budget balance, tax ates and tansfes ae exogenous. Govenment expenditue account fo a fixed popotion of the govenment income and govenment saving endogenously adjusts to maintain the balance. In the balance of payments, foeign capital inflow is exogenous, while the exchange ate endogenously adjusts to maintain the balance Desciption of Labo Tansfe in CGE Model. The CGE model makes seveal hypotheses concening the labo tansfe: (1) the uban labo supply is exogenous, uban labo is pefectly mobile acoss nonagicultual sectos within uban aeas but not mobile acoss egions, and it cannot be tansfeed fom uban to ual aeas; (2) the ual labo supply is exogenous, ual labo is mobile acoss sectos and egions, it can be tansfeed to nonagicultual sectos in uban aeas o local ual aeas but cannot be tansfeed to ual aeas of othe egions; (3) the ual labo foces migated to cities ae included in uban esidents (hee, esidents ae classified accoding to the place of esidence athe than egistation alteation, and ual labo foces migated to cities will send some of thei incomes to ual esidents). Rual household is the supplie of all types of ual labo foce. Following the method poposed by Hetel and Zhai [9], CETfunctionisusedtodescibethelaboallocationofual household. To achieve maximum expected evenue of labo foce, ual household adopts the optimal decision of labo allocation. This decision of labo allocation is expessed as (1), whee the subscipt i=1,2epesents the agicultual secto and nonagicultual secto, Y is the total labo income, L is the quantity of labo foce, W is the expected labo evenue, β is a CET paamete, and σ is elasticity of tansfomation: max Y= (L i W i ) i s.t. L = [ (β i L (σ+1)/σ i )] i Lagange = (L i W i ) i +A { { { L [ i σ/(σ+1) (1) (β i L i (σ+1)/σ )]σ/(σ+1) } } } (2)

3 The Scientific Wold Jounal 3 Household module Facto supply module Household savings ELES Household consumption Income tax Govenment evenue Rual Uban household household Remittance Govenment module Cental govenment govenment Labou income Capital income Facto income Entepise tansfe payment Govenment tansfe payment Govenment saving Govenment subsidies Govenment puchase Goss saving Investment demand poduct maket Composite goods Facto maket Intemediate input 1 Intemediate input 2 Agicultual labo foce Rual nonagicultual labo foce Uban labo foce Intemediate input n Land Labo foce Capital Poduction module Land Leontief Labo foce Capital Intemediate inputs composite Domestic composite goods Rual household Uban household Value added CET Output Net poduct tax Domestic sales Inteegional impot goods sales CET Entepise module Othe povinces module Copoate income tax Copoate saving Entepise Entepise income Inteegional Inteegional impot Othe povinces expot Saving Rest of the wold module Entepise tansfe payment impot Impot of othe povinces Impot Rest of the wold Expot expot Expot of othe povinces Capital gains Foeign saving Figue 1: Stuctue of CGE model.

4 4 The Scientific Wold Jounal W i L i = ( ) L (3) A β i L 1 = α 1 ( W σ 1 ). (4) L 2 α 2 W 2 Fistly, use the Lagange facto (A) to establish the Lagange function (see (2)). Then, based on (2), the fistode patial deivative of L i can be calculated. Let the fistode patial deivative of L i be 0; then the optimal L i can be achieved (see (3)). The labo tansfe equation (see (4)) fom agicultual secto to nonagicultual secto can be gained by compaing L 1 and L 2,wheeα 1 =β σ 2, α 2 =β σ 1. Extending it to egional level, the following equations can be gained: L = [ [ [ LS lag LS l + g LSul,g (α lul ) 1/σag +(α lag ) 1/σag σ = αlag ( WA σ ag ), α lul (5) WNA (σ ag +1)/σ ag (LS l + LS ul,g ) g (LS lag ) (σag +1)/σ ag ] ] σ ag /(σ ag +1), (6) WNA = LSl Wl + g (LS ul,g Wul g ω) LS l +, (7) g LSul,g WA =W lag + bool λ TS PT L. (8) The subscipts and g epesent egions and the supescipts lag, l, andul epesent agicultual labo foce, ual nonagicultual labo foce, and uban labo foce, espectively; L is the initial quantity of labo foce supplied by is the final quantity of type l labo foce ual household; LS l povided by ual household of egion ; LS ul,g is the final quantity of labo foce tansfeed fom egion to egion g;wa and WNA aetheaveageagicultualincomeand nonagicultual income of the labo foce oiginated fom ual household of egion ; α lag and α lul ae the CET shaes of ual agicultual labo foce and nonagicultual labo foce oiginated fom egion ; W l is the aveage wage of type l labo foce woking in egion ; ω is the coefficient of wage tosion which denotes the diffeence between the wages of tansfe labo and uban labo; TS is the total supply of land; PT is the pice of land; λ is the paamete fo the atio of land endowment to on-fam labo. Equation (5) descibes the ual labo tansfe fom agicultue to nonagicultual sectos, including nonagicultual secto in local ual aeas, local uban aeas, and uban aeas of othe egions. The quantity of labo tansfe is detemined by the elasticity of labo tansfe (σ ag ) of agicultual and nonagicultual sectos as well as the elative change in aveage evenue of agicultual labo foce and nonagicultual labo foce. In the baseline scenaio, σ ag is 0.6 accoding to the econometic eseach esults of Sicula and Zhao [12]. The nonagicultual aveage evenue is defined in (7), which efes to the nonagicultual aveage wage of those ual labo foces tansfeed to nonagicultual sectos in local ual aeas, local uban aeas, and uban aeas of othe egions. The composition of aveage agicultual income is stated in (8), which eflects the oppotunity cost fo ual labo tansfe fom agicultue to nonagicultual sectos. In (8), bool is the policy vaiable of famland maket. When the CGE model involves no famland maket, ual labo tansfe to nonagicultual sectos will decease the famland etun and incease the oppotunity cost of abandoning agicultual poduction. Unde this cicumstance, bool equals 1. When the CGE model has a pefect famland maket, ual labo tansfes to nonagicultual sectos can lease thei famlands to othes and the ent is equal to the maginal etun of the famlands. In this case, the ual labo tansfe will not be influenced by famland eanings and bool equals 0. Cuently, although China has developed a famland maket peliminaily, it still has a long way to establish a unified and standad lage-scale famland maket [13]. Theefoe, the decision of ual labo tansfe to nonagicultual sectos should take the loss of land etun caused by the slow development of famland maket into account. This pape adopts the method of Zhai and Hetel [14] to detemine bool = 0.5 in the baseline scenaio. Additionally, duing the labo tansfe, ual labo foce will be attacted to uban aeas due to the uban-ual wage diffeential. Pevious eseaches explained the uban-ual wage diffeential fom the pespective of labo tansfe cost. Zhao [15] declaed that the diect cost of ual labo tansfe to uban aeas (tanspotation, housing, and cetificate tansaction) accounts fo 30% of the uban-ual eanings diffeence. Shi et al. [16] analyzed labo income diffeentials between uban and ual egions in China and found that thee ae still 48% of houly eanings diffeences between uban and ual wokes, which cannot be explained by labo s pesonal chaacteistics (gende, education, woking expeience,maiagestatus,andhealthstatus)andtheliving costs diffeence between uban and ual egions. This model takes the unexplained uban-ual wage diffeences as the indiect cost of labo tansfe. Duing the labo tansfe, uban labo and ual unagicultual labo ae linked though the equilibium condition, which is expessed by (9): W ul ω W l = CPI DC + INDC, (9) INDC = TIndCost W l, (10) TIndCost =α idc ( LSul σ cmig ), (11) L LS ul,g =φ,g LS ul. (12) In (9), the diffeential between uban wage and ual nonagicultual wage is equal to the sum of diect cost (DC ) and indiect cost (INDC ) of labo tansfe. CPI is the consume pice index of egion. The CGE model uses the eseach esults of Shi et al. [16] diectly.inothewods, it egads the 48% of the diffeential between uban wage

5 The Scientific Wold Jounal 5 and ual nonagicultual wage as the indiect cost of ual labofoce.lettheindiectcostbetheadvaloemdutiesof ual nonagicultual wage (TIndCost ),whichissupposed as a constant elasticity function of ual labo tansfe ate to uban aeas. LS ul is the final quantity of labo foces tansfeed fom ual aeas of egion to uban aeas and α idc is the paamete of indiect cost. Duing the pocess of ual labo tansfe fom ual to uban aeas, the ual labofoceswillchoosetotansfetolocalubanaeaso uban aeas of the othe egion accoding to the income diffeential between the two egions. Tansfeed labo foces ae allocated between local uban aeas and uban aeas of the othe egion though the CET function. The optimal decision is obtained fom the optimal pogamming which has the same functions as functions (1)to(3). In the case of function (3), the shae of L 1 in L is expessed as φ and deived fom the following functions: L 1 L = L 1 L 1 +L 2 = (W 1 /β 1 ) σ (W 1 /β 1 ) σ σ. (13) +(W 2 /β 2 ) Multiply both sides of function (13)byβ σ 1 βσ 2 ;function(14) is obtained: L 1 L βσ 1 βσ 2 β σ 1 βσ 2 β σ 2 = W 1 σ β2 σ. (14) Wσ 1 +βσ 1 Wσ 2 As mentioned ealie, α 1 =β σ 2, α 2 =β σ 1, which imply that α φ= 1 W σ 1 α 1 W1 σ +α 2 W2 σ. (15) Simila to function (15),theuallabotansfeate(φ,g ) fom ual aeas of egion to uban aeas of egion g is defined in whee α mig ul,g φ,g = α mig ul,g g α mig ul,g (W ul g ω)σul, (16) (Wg ul ω)σul is CET paamete and σ ul is CET elasticity Data Base and Paametes of the CGE Model. The data base of the CGE model is the social accounting matix (SAM) of Chongqing in 2007 and SAM of othe domestic egions in Consideing data availability, this pape compiled the national SAM and SAM of Chongqing in 2007 fistly on the basis of China s and Chongqing s input-output table in Next, the national SAM minus SAM of Chongqing is the SAM of othe domestic egions. The CGE involves two types of paametes: one mainly includes all kinds of elasticities of the model, which is detemined fom liteatue eview and data exogenesis, mainly cited fom the eseach esults of Zhai and Hetel [17] and Dik[18] as well as the data of China in the GTAP model; the othe type is calibated by the data of fome type and SAM. 3. Simulation Scenaios Design The simulation scenaio in this pape includes the baseline scenaio and thee policy scenaios. In the policy scenaios, the suppoting policies fo impoving ual labo tansfe is expessed by loweing labo tansfe cost and pefecting the famland maket, meanwhile the agicultual technical pogess is eflected by the gowth ate of agicultual total factopoductivity(tfp).detailsofthesescenaiosaestated as below. S0: this is the baseline scenaio, in which each egion has exogenous GDP gowth ate and endogenous TFP gowth ate. Besides, it supposes that all industies have the same TFP gowth ate. The GDP gowth ate fom 2007 to 2010 is the pactical GDP gowth ate. Fom 2011 to 2015, the annual aveage GDP gowth ate of Chongqing is 12.5% and the annual aveage GDP gowth ate of othe domestic egions is 7.8% (the annual aveage GDP gowth ate of Chongqing fom 2011 to 2015 is set accoding to its 12th Fiveyea Plan. Meanwhile, Li Shantong et al. (2009) detemined China s annual aveage GDP gowth ate fom 2011 to 2015 as 7.9% in the pospect of China s economic gowth fom 12th Five-yea Plan to Basedontheabovetwodata,thispapeestimatedthe annual aveage GDP gowth ate of othe domestic egions fom 2011 to 2015 as 7.8%). In each egion, thegowthateoflaboandpopulation,aswellasthe famland supply, ae exogenous. In addition, the total cuent capital stock of China is the sum of pevious capital stock deducting capital depeciation and the goss investment of China. S1: this is the scenaio of impovement of suppoting policies to labo tansfe. The cost of ual labo tansfe includes tanspotation cost, living cost, psychological cost, job taining cost, and oppotunity cost caused by unemployment duing the tansfe [19]. The CGE model supposes that govenment adopts vaious measues to lowe the tansfe cost by 5% by 2015 elative to 2007 levels, such as poviding skill taining and accommodation suppots, emoving institutional obstacles of ual labo tansfe, and offeing social insuance. In addition, the model also supposes that govenment facilitates the evolution of famland tansfe and establishes a pefect famland maket to let bool =0. S2: this is the scenaio of agicultual technical pogess. It supposes that the annual TFP gowth ate of agicultueins2is0.1%highethanthatins0. S3: this is the combination of S1 and S2. In othe wods, theuallabotansfecostwillbeloweedby5%by 2015 elative to 2007 levels, bool is equal to 0, and the annual TFP gowth ate of agicultue in S3 is 0.1% highe than that in S0.

6 6 The Scientific Wold Jounal 4. Simulation Results Theabovefouscenaiosaesimulatedinthispapebyusing the CGE model. Next, the simulation esults of S1, S2, and S3 ae compaed with those of S0. The compaison esults ae the final simulation esults, which cove the following thee aspects Impact on Labo Tansfe and Wage. The labo tansfe andwagechangeofalllabofocesin2015aepesentedin Table 1. Compaed with S0, the est of the scenaios (S1, S2, and S3) witness a gowth of labo tansfe fom agicultue to nonagicultual sectos and fom ual aeas to uban aeas. ThelabotansfeinS3ishighethanthesumofthatinS1 and S2. Additionally, all labo foces ae enjoying inceasing wages in thee scenaios except fo the aveage uban wage in S1 and S3 as well as the aveage agicultual wage and the aveage ual wage in S2. The influence of aveage agicultual wage on aveage ual wage is geate than that of ual nonagicultual wage, and the aveage ual wage has the simila vaiation tendency to the aveage agicultual wage. Viewed fom numbes, the aveage agicultual wage in S3 endsthedeceaseins2andinceasesslightly.theaveage uban wage in S3 deceases less than that in S1. These indicate that, on one hand, the policy effect in S3 is not a simple supeposition of policies in S1 and S2 but is moe effective in facilitating the labo tansfe than the sum of S1 and S2 due to inteaction between S1 and S2. On the othe hand, S1 deceases the quantity of the ual labo foce and inceases the uban labo supply; S2 not only deceases the agicultual labo demand but also dives the development of nonagicultual sectos though the industial linkages and inceases the labo demand of nonagicultual sectos. Since the macoclosue of this CGE model has a hypothesis of full employment, the aveage agicultual wage in S1 and theaveageubanwageins2aeaised,whiletheaveage uban wage in S1 and the aveage agicultual wage in S2 ae negatively affected. S3 is a composite scenaio made up of S1 and S2. Unde the inteaction of S1 and S2, the negative impact on aveage uban wage in S3 is smalle than that in S1; the negative impact in S2 on aveage agicultual wage is offset, and the aveage agicultual wage even inceases slightly in S3. Table 1: Labo tansfe and wages in 2015 (% change). S1 S2 S3 Labo tansfe Off-fam labo Rual uban Wages Agicultual Rual nonagi Rual Uban Data souce: simulation esults. Table 2: Macoeconomic vaiables in 2015 (% change). S1 S2 S3 Regional eal GDP Regional pe capita GDP Residents consumption Uban esidents Rual esidents Investment Data souce: simulation esults. ual esidents, thus inceasing the ual esidents consumption.similaly,deceaseofaveageubanwagewilllowe the income of uban esidents, thus deceasing the uban esidents consumption. Results demonstate that all the thee policy scenaios decease ual esidents consumption and incease uban esidents consumption, finally inceasing the esidents consumption. Futhemoe, the investment, eal GDP, and GDP pe capita of Chongqing in all scenaios ae inceased except the investment in S1. It can be seen fom Table 2 that the gowth of a vaiable (esidents consumption, investment, eal GDP, and GDP pe capita) in S3 is geate than the sum of that in S1 and S2. Theefoe, attentions shall be paid to the collaboative effect of S1 and S2 duing the boost of egional economic gowth. 4.2.ImpactonRegionalMacoeconomicVaiables. The vaiation of macoeconomic indexes of Chongqing in thee policy scenaios is listed in Table 2. Among these, the esidents consumption vaiation is detemined by the vaiation of uban and ual esidents consumptions. Accoding to the simulation esults, the impact on uban and ual esidents consumption depends on two factos. On one hand, policy changewillattactuallabofocesfomualaeastouban aeas and change the population of two kinds of esidents (decease the ual population and incease the uban population), thus deceasing the ual esidents consumption and inceasing the uban esidents consumption. On the othe hand, ual labo tansfe esults in wage change (Table 1). Incease of aveage ual wage will incease the income of 4.3.ImpactonUbanandRualResidents. The vaiation of pe capita incomes and welfaes of uban and ual esidents in all thee scenaios is listed in Table 3. The vaiation of welfaes is measued by equivalent vaiation (EV). S1 inceases the pe capita incomes and welfaes of ual esidents but deceases that of uban esidents. S2 is in favo of uban esidents but deceases the pe capita incomes and welfaes of ual esidents. Compaed with S1, S3 deceases the pe capita incomes and welfaes of uban esidents moe slowly. Unlike S2, S3 has a positive effect on the pe capita incomes and welfaes of ual esidents. This indicates that S3 is supeio to S2 and S1, which can not only avoid negative impact of S2 on ual esidents but also elieve the negative impact of S1 on uban esidents.

7 The Scientific Wold Jounal 7 Table 3: Uban and ual esidents pe capita income and welfae (EV) in 2015 (% change). S1 S2 S3 Pe capita income Rual esidents Uban esidents Pe capita EV Rual esidents Uban esidents Data souce: simulation esults. ( Change of oiginal value.) 5. Sensitivity Analysis Based on the key paametes of labo tansfe, a sensitivity analysis is made to ensue the eliability of the esults. In sensitivity analysis, the elasticity of labo tansfe is 2.2 (accoding to the econometic eseach esults of Sicula and Zhao,fothedeceaseoftheagicultualwage,theelasticity oflabotansfeis2.2),andthesimulationsoftheabovefou scenaios ae epeated by CGE model. The compaison esults of S1, S2, and S3 elative to S0 ae pesented in Table 4. ItcanbeseenbycompaingtheesultsinTable 4 to the peviously simulation esults (Tables 1 3), the quantities of labo tansfe fom agicultue to nonagicultual sectos and fom ual to uban aeas ae inceased in the same scenaio. In S2, the negative impact of the eduction of agicultual labo demand on aveage agicultual wage is elieved, so the deceasing ate of the aveage agicultual wage and aveage ual wage as well as the inceasing ate of the aveage uban wage ae getting lowe. The pe capita income of ual esidents in S2 is no longe educed, but with a slight ise. And the gowth of pe capita incomes of uban esidents is also educed. The inceasing of tansfe labo foce leads to an incease of uban population and decease of ual population. In S1 and S3, the aveage agicultual wage, the aveage ual wage, and the pe capita incomes of ual esidents ae subject to the moe positive impact, while the aveage uban wage and the pe capita incomes of uban esidents ae subject to the geate negative impact. Theefoe, unde the dual action of changes in the income and population of esidents, the inceasing ate of uban esidents consumption and deceasing ate of ual esidents consumption wee educed, theefoe leading to a decease of esidents consumption in S1, as well as the inceasing ate of esidents consumption in S2 and S3. In addition, inceasing the tansfe labo simultaneously enlages the negative impact of S1 on investment, as well as the positive impact of S2 on investment. The inceasing ate of investment in S3 is lowe because of the collaboation of S1 and S2. In addition to the above vaiables, the positive and negative effects that othe vaiables wee subject to ae amplified, but the change contay to theoetical expectations does not exist. In a wod, all kinds of vaiables ae in accodance with theoetical expectations, and the basic conclusion the pape deived fom CGE model is obust. Table 4: Results of policy simulations in 2015 (% change, σ ag = 2.67). S1 S2 S3 Labo tansfe Off-fam labo Rual uban Wages Agicultual Rual nonagi Rual Uban Regional eal GDP Regional pe capita GDP Residents consumption Rual esidents Uban esidents Investment Pe capita income Rual esidents Uban esidents Welfae (EV) Rual esidents Uban esidents Data souce: simulation esults. ( Change of oiginal value.) 6. Conclusion This pape establishes a biegional CGE model of China. It designs thee policy scenaios based on the suppoting policies fo impoving labo tansfe and agicultual technical pogess. Finally, it caies out a simulation analysis and a sensitivity analysis on the impact of these policy scenaios on the economic development of Chongqing, finding that the collaboative effect of suppoting policies fo impoving labo tansfe and agicultual technical pogess is supeio to thei unilateal effect in boosting the economic development of Chongqing. Such supeioity is mainly manifested in thee aspects: (1) the combination of suppoting policies fo impoving labo tansfe and agicultual technical pogess can facilitate the suplus ual labo tansfe in Chongqing positively. Compaed with the sum of unilateal policy effect, it intensifies the labo tansfe and inceases the quantity of labo tansfe. Secondly, except fo inceasing labo wage, it also elieves the negative impact of agicultual technical pogess on aveage agicultual wage and aveage ual wage as well as the negative impact of labo tansfe pomotion on the aveage uban wage. (2) The combination of suppoting policies fo impoving labo tansfe and agicultual technical pogess can boost the economic gowth in Chongqing. It not only dives the gowth of esidents consumption, pactical GDP, and GDP pe capita in Chongqing but also elieves the negative impact of labo tansfe on investment. (3) The combination of suppoting policies fo impoving labotansfeandagicultualtechnicalpogesscanimpove the incomes and welfaes of uban and ual esidents. Duing

8 8 The Scientific Wold Jounal the labo tansfe, it not only inceases the pe capita income and welfae of ual esidents and avoids negative impact of agicultual technical pogess on ual esidents, but also offsets the negative impact of labo tansfe on uban esidents. Conflict of Inteests The authos declae that thee is no conflict of inteests egading the publication of this pape. Refeences [1] X. M. Liu and W. M. Tian, Analysis of the contibution of ual labo tansfe to gowth of China s economy, Management Wold, no. 01, pp , 2005 (Chinese). [2] F. Cai, Demogaphic tansition, demogaphic dividend, and Lewis tuning point in China, Economic Reseach Jounal, no. 04,pp.4 13,2010. [3] S. H. Ding, Insufficient labo supply and wage inceases unde labo suplus conditions: fom the pespective of intahousehold labo division, Social Sciences in China, no. 05, pp. 4 21, 219, [4] D. Z. Zhao and H. L. Xu, FDI, agicultual technology pogess and tansfeence of edundant ual labo foce theoetical andempiicalbasedonintegatedmodel, Studies in Science of Science, no. 09, pp , [5] Z. S. Chen and F. D. Li, A gowth model of dual economy with endogenous agicultual technology pogess the e-analysis of East Asian miacle and Chinese economy, Economic Reseach Jounal,vol.11,pp.16 27,2004. [6] K. J. Chen, C. Y. He, and Y. L. Zhang, The migation of suplus labo and technology pogess in China s agicultual secto the theoetical mechanism based on Ranis-Fei model and mico evidence fom eight ual villages in west China, Industial Economics Reseach, no. 01, pp. 1 8, 94, [7] X.L.LiandG.P.Li, Studyontheolesofualsupluslabo tansfe in economic gowth, Economic Science, no. 03, pp , [8] W. Jia and X. Xin, Contibution of ual labo tansfe to national economic gowth, Chinese Rual Economy, no. 03, pp. 4 11, [9] T. Hetel and F. Zhai, Labo maket distotions, ual-uban inequality and the opening of China s economy, Economic Modelling,vol.23,no.1,pp ,2006. [10] Z. Y. Xu and S. T. Li, The effect of inte-egional migation on economic gowth and egional dispaity, The Jounal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, no. 02, pp , [11] J. X. Zhang, The pospect of facto maket efoms in China and its impact on the wold economy, Intenational Review of Business Reseach Papes,vol.8,no.5,2012. [12] T. Sicula and Y. Zhao, Eanings and labo mobility in ual China: implications fo China s accession to the WTO, in China and the WTO: Accession, Policy Refom, and Povety Reduction Stategies, D.Bhattasali,S.Li,andW.Matin,Eds.,WoldBank and Oxfod Univesity Pess, Washington, DC, USA, [13] Z. D. Feng, L. Huo, and C. L. Shao, A eview on ual land ciculation of China, Jounal of Nothwest Univesity (Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition), no. 02, pp , [14] F. Zhai and T. Hetel, Economic and Povety Impacts of Agicultual Pice Distotions IN China, 2008, [15] Y. Zhao, Labo migation and eanings diffeences: the case of ual China, Economic Development and Cultual Change,vol. 47, no. 4, pp , [16] X. Shi, T. Sicula, and Y. Zhao, Analyzing uban-ual income inequality in China, in Poceedings of the Intenational Symposium on Equity and Social Justice in Tansitional China,Beijing, China, July [17] F. Zhai and T. Hetel, Impacts of the Doha Development Agenda on China: The ole of labo makets and complementay education efoms, Wold Bank Policy Reseach Woking Pape 3702, Wold Bank, 2005, [18] W. Dik, Stuctual effects of a Real Exchange Rate Revaluation in China: A CGE Assessment, MPRA Pape no. 920, 2006, [19] F. Hu, Reseach on Chinese ual labo tansfe: a liteatue eview, Zhejiang Social Sciences, no. 01, pp , 2007 (Chinese).

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