Is uneven economic growth dividing Australian society? 14 March 2017

Transcription

1 Is uneven economic growth dividing Australian society? 14 March 2017

2 Outline Growing national economy hides a concerning spatial distribution. The big cities and mineral production are driving the national economy. Many groups within Australian society are being left behind. What does all this mean for Canberra. 2

3 Australian GDP Growth Source: ABS Australian System of National Accounts 3

4 GDP Growth Source: SGS Economics and Planning Australian Cities Accounts

5 GDP Per Capita Growth Source: SGS Economics and Planning Australian Cities Accounts

6 If only we could set different rates Interest Rate Interest Rate Source: SGS Economics and Planning Australian Cities Accounts

7 GDP by Region Source: Unpublished SGS Economics and Planning Australian Cities Accounts

8 GDP Growth Source: Unpublished SGS Economics and Planning Australian Cities Accounts

9 Geopolitics Source: John Daley, CEO, Grattan Institute Economic, social, and political geography presentation 8 th of September

10 Contribution to GDP Growth Source: Unpublished SGS Economics and Planning Australian Cities Accounts

11 Contribution to GDP Growth Source: Unpublished SGS Economics and Planning Australian Cities Accounts

12 Contribution to GDP Growth Source: Unpublished SGS Economics and Planning Australian Cities Accounts

13 Contribution to GDP Growth Source: Unpublished SGS Economics and Planning Australian Cities Accounts

14 Contribution to GDP Growth Source: Unpublished SGS Economics and Planning Australian Cities Accounts

15 Is uneven economic growth dividing Australian society? 14 March 2017

16 Which industries experience faster/slower wage growth? Source: Average Weekly Earnings, Industry, Original Full time adult ordinary time earnings, , Australian Bureau of Statistics PAGE 16

17 Wage growth by industry Faster than average Mining Financial and insurance services Information media and telecommunications Electricity, gas, water and waste services Construction Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Slower than average Other services Accommodation and food services Administration and support services Manufacturing Retail Trade Health care and social assistance Average Weekly Earnings, Industry, Original Full time adult ordinary time earnings, , Australian Bureau of Statistics PAGE 17

18 Less educated are worse off in employment Source: Labour Force Australia Detailed, Table 24a, , Australian Bureau of Statistics 18

19 Returns to further education not always positive Private rates of return to a university degree are generally good Exceptions: Humanities for men and architecture for women These are average figures the lowest 20 th percentile are almost all worse off as a result of completing a degree Only medicine consistently provides positive returns for the 20 th percentile of graduates; mixed results for dentistry, education and IT Source: Corliss, M., Lewis, P. & Daly, A. (2013) The Rate of Return to Higher Education over the Business Cycle, Australian Journal of Labour Economics, col 16 no 2 pp

20 Welfare recipients relatively worse off Source: Average Weekly Earnings, Industry, Original Full time adult ordinary time earnings, , Australian Bureau of Statistics; Single Unemployment and Sickness Benefit, Guide to Social Security Law, DSS 20

21 Lowest earnings in regional areas Region State Mean taxable income Mid North Coast NSW $ 40,188 Coffs Harbour - Grafton NSW $ 40,207 Richmond - Tweed NSW $ 42,285 Wide Bay Qld $ 42,713 Hume Vic $ 42,967 North West Vic $ 43,152 South Australia - South East SA $ 43,983 Shepparton Vic $ 44,278 Ballarat Vic $ 44,847 Murray NSW $ 45,124 Source: ATO Individual Sample Files

22 Highest earnings in inner cities Region State Mean taxable income Sydney - Inner West NSW $ 68,944 Melbourne - Inner Vic $ 71,384 Brisbane - West Qld $ 71,982 Melbourne - Inner South Vic $ 73,906 Melbourne - Inner East Vic $ 74,029 Sydney - Northern Beaches NSW $ 78,068 Brisbane Inner City Qld $ 81,310 Sydney - North Sydney and Hornsby Qld $ 94,556 Perth - Inner WA $ 95,990 Sydney - Eastern Suburbs NSW $ 97,645 Source: ATO Individual Sample Files

23 Gini coefficients and mean taxable incomes across Australia 0.47 $66K 0.39 $61K 0.43 $52K 0.46 $55K 0.46 $56K 0.48 $59K 0.40 $65K 0.43 Source: ATO Individual Sample Files

24 Mining states have showed the highest growth in average taxable incomes to % 27% 21% 29% 26% 22% 14% 18% Source: ATO Individual Sample Files, and

25 Earnings inequality has increased everywhere except the ACT since : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 0.43 Source: ATO Individual Sample Files, and

26 ACT has relatively low income inequality Those with low incomes earn more than other States Source: ATO Individual Sample Files PAGE 26

27 ACT has relatively low income inequality Canberra s top one percent worse off than other States Source: ATO Individual Sample Files PAGE 27

28 Why does ACT have low inequality? One third of ACT workers in Public Administration and Safety tend to have flatter wage structures Smaller private sector businesses tend to be local branches or small businesses. Head offices of major firms are in other cities Population is highly educated -> high wages and less competition for unskilled jobs Low unemployment rates No Canberran in ATO s sample file had a taxable income greater than $1.5 million (122 elsewhere in Australia) PAGE 28

29 High incomes means higher costs of living Anglicare Rental Affordability Snapshot: no affordable property for anyone on Newstart or Youth Allowance in Canberra; nothing suitable for single parents Domain: Median house rents in Canberra $500/wk, only $10 less than Sydney and higher than all other State capitals; similar pattern with units Transport Affordability Index: Petrol is more expensive in Canberra than any other mainland capital city Low earners and welfare recipients will struggle more in Canberra than other capital cities PAGE 29

30 ACT GDP Growth Source: SGS Economics and Planning Australian Cities Accounts

31 ACT s Economic Structure Source: Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, Cat. No

32 ACT s Economic Structure EJD is a measure of economic mass. Canberra compares well to other small cities. 21 st Century competition will come from larger cities. Source: SGS Economics & Planning Effective Job Density: comparing our regions and cities 32

33 ACT s Economic Structure Larger more complex cities provide more business opportunities. New economic cluster form which have to be serviced. A larger more skilled workforce generates innovation. Source: SGS Economics & Planning Effective Job Density: comparing our regions and cities 33

34 The Canberra challenge Source: Regional Population Growth Cat. No

35 What to do about it? Ticks most of the boxes required for Canberra to prosper. Implementation is where strategic plans tend to fail. For me, public transport and housing are most difficult to implement. But are the most important. Help generate the vibe. 35

36 Summary While national GDP growth looks okay, the regional variation is huge. Many groups within Australian society are being left behind. Canberra has to compete with other cities for talented people and business investment. 36

37 Is uneven economic growth dividing Australian society? 14 March 2017

38 New South Wales GDP Statistics Statistical Area GDP ($ Billions) Central Coast $ % Sydney - Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury $ % Sydney - Blacktown $ % Sydney - City and Inner South $ % Sydney - Eastern Suburbs $ % Sydney - Inner South West $ % Sydney - Inner West $ % Sydney - North Sydney and Hornsby $ % Sydney - Northern Beaches $ % Sydney - Outer South West $ % Sydney - Outer West and Blue Mountains $ % Sydney - Parramatta $ % Sydney - Ryde $ % Sydney - South West $ % Sydney - Sutherland $ % Capital Region $ % Central West $ % Coffs Harbour - Grafton $ % Far West and Orana $ % Hunter Valley exc Newcastle $ % Illawarra $ % Mid North Coast $ % Murray $ % New England and North West $ % Newcastle and Lake Macquarie $ % Richmond - Tweed $ % Growth Rate Source: Unpublished SGS Economics and Planning Australian Cities Riverina $ % Accounts Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven $ %

39 Victoria GDP Statistics Statistical Area GDP ($ Billions) Growth Rate Ballarat $ % Bendigo $ % Geelong $ % Hume $ % Latrobe - Gippsland $ % Melbourne - Inner $ % Melbourne - Inner East $ % Melbourne - Inner South $ % Melbourne - North East $ % Melbourne - North West $ % Melbourne - Outer East $ % Melbourne - South East $ % Melbourne - West $ % Mornington Peninsula $ % North West $ % Shepparton $ % Warrnambool and South West $ % Source: Unpublished SGS Economics and Planning Australian Cities Accounts

40 Queensland GDP Statistics Statistical Area GDP ($ Billions) Growth Rate Brisbane - East $ % Brisbane - North $ % Brisbane - South $ % Brisbane - West $ % Brisbane Inner City $ % Cairns $ % Darling Downs - Maranoa $ % Fitzroy $ % Gold Coast $ % Ipswich $ % Logan - Beaudesert $ % Mackay $ % Moreton Bay - North $ % Moreton Bay - South $ % Queensland - Outback $ % Sunshine Coast $ % Toowoomba $ % Townsville $ % Wide Bay $ % Source: Unpublished SGS Economics and Planning Australian Cities Accounts

41 South Australia GDP Statistics Statistical Area 4 GDP Billions Growth Rate Adelaide - Central and Hills $ % Adelaide - North $ % Adelaide - South $ % Adelaide - West $ % Barossa - Yorke - Mid North $ % South Australia - Outback $ % South Australia - South East $ % Source: Unpublished SGS Economics and Planning Australian Cities Accounts

42 Western Australia GDP Statistics Statistical Area GDP ($ Billions) Growth Rate Bunbury $ % Mandurah $ % Perth - Inner $ % Perth - North East $ % Perth - North West $ % Perth - South East $ % Perth - South West $ % Western Australia - Outback $ % Western Australia - Wheat Belt $ % Source: Unpublished SGS Economics and Planning Australian Cities Accounts