The Cairns Property Market. Presented by Rick Carr Research Director, Herron Todd White 28 July 2015

Transcription

1 The Cairns Property Market Presented by Rick Carr Research Director, Herron Todd White 28 July 2015

2 National Market Dubbo Gippsland Horsham Latrobe Valley Newcastle Sydney Tamworth Toowoomba W ollongong Peak of Market Approaching Peak of Market Starting to Decline Bathurst Bendigo Brisbane Cairns Canberra Coffs Harbour Echuca Gold Coast Ipswich Melbourne Mildura Mudgee NSW Central Coast South W est W A Sunshine Coast W arrnambool Rising Market Declining Market Darwin Emerald Perth Start of Recovery Approaching Bottom of Market Alice Springs Burnie-Devonport Griffith Hobart Hervey Bay Launceston Orange Townsville W agga W agga W hitsunday Bottom of Market Adelaide Adelaide Hills Albury Barossa Valley Bundaberg Gladstone Mackay Mount Gambier NSW North Coast Rockhampton SA Iron Triangle SA Riverland Shepparton W odonga Source: Residential Property Ratings Compiled by Herron Todd W hite, June 2015

3 Residential Property Sales Number of Residential Property Sales 10,000 Houses Units Land 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Source: HTW Analysis of RPData

4 Residential Property Prices Median Sale Price (Log Scale) $450,000 Houses $300,000 $200,000 Units $140,000 $100,000 Vacant Land $70,000 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 * All sales are classified to date of contract (not date of settlement) ** Recent months are provisional and subject to revision Source: HTW Analysis of RPData

5 House Prices within Cairns Median House Price (Log Scale) $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 W estern Cairns Central Cairns Southern Corridor Northern Beaches All Cairns $200,000 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Quarter Ended Source: HTW Analysis of RPData

6 Unit Prices within Cairns Median Apartment Price (Log Scale) $400,000 Residential Apartments Tourist Apartments $280,000 $200,000 $140,000 $100,000 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Quarter Ended * All sales are classified to date of contract (not date of settlement) ** Recent quarters are provisional and subject to revision Source: HTW Analysis of RPData

7 House Prices within Northern Queensland Median House Trend Price (Log Scale) $480,000 $430,000 $380,000 $330,000 $280,000 Cairns Townsville Mackay $230,000 May-05 Mar-06 Jan-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Jul-09 May-10 Mar-11 Jan-12 Nov-12 Sep-13 Jul-14 May-15 Oct-05 Aug-06 Jun-07 Apr-08 Feb-09 Dec-09 Oct-10 Aug-11 Jun-12 Apr-13 Feb-14 Dec-14 * All sales are classified to date of contract (not date of settlement) ** Recent months are provisional and subject to revision Source: HTW Analysis of RPData

8 Residential Property Supply Number of Properties Listed/Available For Sale 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Houses Units Land 0 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Quarter Ended Source: RPData, HTW Land Survey

9 Residential Market Metrics Average Days on Market 200 Average Vendor Discount 10% Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb % 120 6% 80 4% 40 2% 0 Houses Units 0% Houses Units Source: HTW Analysis of RPData

10 Rental Vacancy Rates Percentage Vacancy 8% Houses Units Total 6% 'Balanced Market' Range 4% 2% 0% Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Source: HTW Rentroll Survey

11 Residential Rents $ per week $450 $400 4BR House $350 3BR Flat 3BR House $300 2BR House $250 2BR Flat $200 1BR Flat $150 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Quarter ended Source: Queensland Residential Tenancies Authority

12 Residential Building Approvals Number of New Dwellings Approved 3,500 3,000 Houses Units 2,500 2,000 1, year average 1,394 p.a. 1, * Source: Derived from ABS data * Estimate based on figures for year-to-date

13 Commercial/Industrial Sales Number of Sales* 200 Commercial Industrial * Sales of Developed Premises incl on Strata Title Source: HTW Analysis of RPData

14 Commercial Sales Number of Sales 200 Standalone Sales Strata Sales Median Price Per Square Metre Median Price per Square Metre* $4, $3, $2, $1, $0 * For strata sales only Source: HTW Analysis of RPData

15 Industrial Strata Development Number of Units Registered Source: HTW Research

16 Industrial Sales Number of Sales Median Price Per Square Metre 200 Standalone Sales Strata Sales Median Price per Square Metre* $2, $2, $1, $1, $ $0 * For strata sales only Source: HTW Analysis of RPData

17 Industrial Land Sales Number of Sales Number of Sales (Left Axis) Median Price Per Sq Metre (Right Axis) Median Price Per Sq Metre $350 $ $ $ $ $ $ $0 Source: HTW Analysis of RPDATA

18 Commercial/Industrial Yields Net Rental Yield 12.0% Actual Trend 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Source: HTW Analysis

19 Summary & Outlook Market has moved to the rising market phase: Sales volumes and prices both generally increasing New construction increasing but still comparatively low Rental market tight, rents tending to increase Affordability (relatively low prices & interest rates)

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21 Disclaimer The information contained in this report is provided in good faith and has been derived from sources believed to be reliable and accurate. However, the report is not intended to be comprehensive or render advice and neither Herron Todd White nor any persons involved in the preparation of this report accepts any form of liability for its contents. This report has copyright and cannot be reproduced without written permission of Herron Todd White.