Example of mode-service choice model

Transcription

1 Corso di Gestione ed Esercizio dei Sistemi di Trasporto i i /GEST Esercizio sui modelli di assegnazione ad orario per servizi a bassa frequenza Simulation of Passengers choices for Medium-long distance (national) trips in Italy Transport s road High-Speed railways air transport Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 2 1

2 Model structure Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 3 Model specification (Systematic Utility of run r) V r [τ TT ] = + β ESP ESD r + β LSP LSD r + β TV TV r + β MC MC r + + β AT AT r + β ET ET r + + β RAIL RAIL+ β AIR AIR where: ESD r = ; LSD r = ; TV r =; MC r = Monetary Cost; AT r = ; ET r = ; RAIL = Railway dummy; AIR = Air Transport dummy; Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 4 2

3 Model specification early late early late car flights trains attribute symbol CAR EFL LFL ETR LTR ESD X X LSD X X TV X X X X X Monetary Cost MC X X X X X AT X X X X ET X X X X Railways RAIL X X Air Transport AIR X X Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 5 Parameters (Business) attribute symbol units -1 β VOT ( ) ESD h LSD h TV h Monetary Cost MC AT h ET h Railways RAIL 0/ Air Transport AIR 0/ Scale Parameter δ=θ r /θ Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 6 3

4 Rome- Bari O/D pair Distance 435 km (by road) Alternatives car train plane Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 7 Rome- Bari (return) connections tables Rome - Bari High hspeed dtrains Air Transport Car AV FL AV FL AV FL travel time: 3h 00min travel time: 1h 05min travel time: 4h 10min fare: 65 fare: 120 cost (incl. tolls): 52 Bari - Rome High Speed Trains Air Transport Car AV FL AV FL AV FL FL FL travel time: 3h 00min travel time: 1h 05min travel time: 4h 10min fare: 65 fare: 120 cost (incl. tolls): 52 Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 8 4

5 Rome- Bari O/D pair Demand Segmentation (Business) 70% 60% 50% 61% 49% DAT DDT 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 27% 18% 16% 10% 6% 6% 3% 5% < 10:30 10:30-12:30 12:30-14:30 14:30-18:30 > 18:30 Slice Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 9 Simulation Scenarios Reference Scenario Design Scenario 1 Introduction of a new flight 2 Introduction of a train which follows the arrival time of the new flight (R) (D1) (D2) Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 10 5

6 Simulation Scenarios Reference Scenario Design Scenario 1 Introduction of a new flight 2 Introduction of a train which follows the arrival time of the new flight (R) (D1) (D2) Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 11 Reference scenario (R) Cost Train Air Train Flight Flight Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 12 6

7 Reference scenario (R) Shdl Schedule Dl Delay Shdl Schedule Dl Delay Cost Train Air Train Flight Flight choice probability % car 78% Train arr % Train arr % Flight arr % Flight arr Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 13 Reference scenario (R) Shdl Schedule Dl Delay Shdl Schedule Dl Delay Cost Train Air Train Flight Flight mode choice probability 78% car train plane 4% 18% Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 14 7

8 Rome- Bari O/D pair (all DAT/DDT) Reference scenario (R) 300 High Speed Trains Run Loads 253 Flights AV AV AV FL FL FL Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 15 Bari- Rome O/D pair (all DAT/DDT) Reference scenario (R) Run Loads 300 High Speed Trains Flights AV AV AV FL FL FL FL FL Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 16 8

9 Simulation Scenarios Reference Scenario Design Scenario 1 Introduction of a new flight 2 Introduction of a train which follows the arrival time of the new flight (R) (D1) (D2) Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 17 Effects of introduction of a new flight which (D1) Rome - Bari High Speed Trains Air Transport Car AV FL AV FL AV FL FL travel time: 3h 00min travel time: 1h 05min travel ltime: 4h 10min fare: 65 fare: 120 cost (incl. tolls): 52 Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 18 9

10 Effects of introduction of a new flight which (D1) Cost Train Air Train Flight Flight Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 19 Effects of introduction of a new flight which (D1) Cost Train Air Train Flight Flight % choice probability % car Train arr % Train arr % 7% Flight arr Flight arr Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 20 10

11 Effects of introduction of a new flight which (D1) Cost Train Air Train Flight Flight ( - 6%) mode choice probability 72% 17% ( - 1%) 11% car train plane ( + 7%) Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 21 Simulation Scenarios Reference Scenario Design Scenario 1 Introduction of a new flight 2 Introduction of a train which follows the arrival time of the new flight (R) (D1) (D2) Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 22 11

12 Effects of the introduction of a new train which follows the new flight (D2) High Speed Trains Air Transport Car AV FL AV FL AV FL AV FL travel time: 3h 00min travel time: 1h 05min travel ltime: 4h 10min fare: 65 fare: 120 cost (incl. tolls): 52 Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 23 Effects of the introduction of a new train which follows the new flight (D2) Cost Train Air Train Flight Flight Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 24 12

13 Effects of the introduction of a new train which follows the new flight (D2) Cost Train Air Train Flight Flight choice probability % 69% 5% 3% 7% 0.00 car Train arr Train arr Flight arr Flight arr Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 25 Effects of the introduction of a new train which follows the new flight (D2) Cost Train Air Train Flight Flight D2-D1: (+ 2%) D2-R: ( - 4%) mode choice probability 74% 16% 10% car train plane D2-D1: ( - 1%) D2-R: ( - 2%) D2-D1: ( - 1%) D2-R: (+ 6%) Schedule-Based Assignment for Low Frequency Systems 26 13