An analysis on the potential Motorways of the Sea alternative to all-road transport in the Ligurian - Northern Tyrrhenian area

Transcription

1 An analysis on the potential Motorways of the Sea alternative to all-road transport in the Ligurian - Northern Tyrrhenian area Marino Lupi, Alessandro Farina, Francesco Pilato, Antonio Pratelli University of Pisa marino.lupi@ing.unipi.it, alessandro.farina@unipi.it, francesco.pilato@gmail.com, antonio.pratelli@unipi.it

2 Outline of the research Quantitative analysis (travel times and costs) of the current MoS alternative to all-road mode Development of a multimodal network model Current MoS alternative is not convenient (in terms of travel times and monetary costs) because two routes in succession must be taken Analysis of improvement scenarios: Introduction of the ecobonus slight reduction in monetary costs Fares integration among the two routes relevant reduction in monetary costs Union of the two routes in one route relevant reduction in travel times Development of completely new routes best results in reduction of times and costs but high investments

3 Analysis of the existing road/mos network Analysis of the current MoS alternative to all-road mode in the Ligurian-northern Tyrrhenian area Analysis of MoS routes (for 4 weeks) in operation in October 2015 Development of an multimodal network model Study of travel times, monetary costs and generalized costs of the two alternative paths: all-road and intermodal Origin and destinations of paths: the main ports of the area: Civitavecchia, Livorno, Genoa, Savona, Nice, Toulon and Marseilles only O/D pairs distant enough have been considered For example the following O/D pairs have been excluded: Livorno Genoa, Livorno Savona, Civitavecchia Livorno, Toulon Nice, Toulon Marseilles, Nice Marseilles. Lupi et al. An analysis on the potential Motorways of the Sea alternative to all-road transport in the Ligurian - Northern Tyrrhenian area. SIDT Scientific Seminar 2017

4 Connection Frequency by week Operator Origin Destination 1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week Civitavecchia Arbatax Tirrenia Arbatax Civitavecchia Tirrenia Civitavecchia Olbia Tirrenia Olbia Civitavecchia Tirrenia Livorno Bastia Sardinia/Corsica Ferries Bastia Livorno Sardinia/Corsica Ferries Livorno Golfo Aranci Sardinia/Corsica Ferries Golfo Aranci Livorno Sardinia/Corsica Ferries Livorno Olbia Moby Lines Olbia Livorno Moby Lines Genova Porto Torres Tirrenia Porto Torres Genova Tirrenia Genova Olbia Tirrenia, Moby Lines Olbia Genova Tirrenia, Moby Lines Savona Bastia Sardinia/Corsica Ferries Bastia Savona Sardinia/Corsica Ferries Nice Bastia Sardinia/Corsica Ferries Bastia Nice Sardinia/Corsica Ferries Toulon Bastia Sardinia/Corsica Ferries Bastia Toulon Sardinia/Corsica Ferries Toulon Ajaccio Sardinia/Corsica Ferries Ajaccio Toulon Sardinia/Corsica Ferries Marseilles Porto Torres La Méridionale Porto Torres Marseilles La Méridionale Marseilles Ajaccio SNCM, La Méridionale Ajaccio Marseilles SNCM, La Méridionale Marseilles Bastia SNCM, La Méridionale Bastia Marseilles SNCM, La Méridionale

5 MoS routes currently in operation in the area under study

6 MoS routes taken into account in the study: not all routes currently in operation allow a path between the considered O/D pairs Lupi et al. An analysis on the potential Motorways of the Sea alternative to all-road transport in the Ligurian - Northern Tyrrhenian area. SIDT Scientific Seminar 2017

7 The present situation The following intermodal (based on MoS) paths, given the current supply of MoS routes were considered: Livorno Bastia Toulon (and return): 7 departures per week Livorno Bastia Nice (and return): 4 departures per week Livorno Bastia Marseilles (and return): 5 departures per week from Livorno to Marseilles and 7 vice versa The same O/D pairs were considered for all-road transport: Livorno Nice, Livorno Toulon, Livorno Marseilles and return The path followed for all-road transport is the only available: motorways along the Ligurian-Tyrrhenian coast: A12, A10 and (in France) A8. Lupi et al. An analysis on the potential Motorways of the Sea alternative to all-road transport in the Ligurian - Northern Tyrrhenian area. SIDT Scientific Seminar 2017

8 Calculation of travel times Travel times and monetary costs of all-road transport: the same methodology as in the publication: Lupi, Farina, Orsi, Pratelli (2017) The capability of Motorways of the Sea of being competitive against road transport. The case of the Italian mainland and Sicily, Journal of Transport Geography, 58, pp Travel times of intermodal paths comprise: Frequency delay Boarding time, at the origin port, on the 1 ship Voyage time on the 1 ship Unboarding time, at the intermediate port, from the 1 ship Waiting time for the 2 ship at the intermediate port Boarding time, at the intermediate port, on the 2 ship Voyage time on the 2 ship Unboarding time, at the destination port, from the 2 ship

9 Calculation of travel times (2) Boarding time =1,5 h for accompanied transport, 2h for unaccompanied transport. Unboarding time = always 0,5 h. Voyage times and waiting time at the intermediate port: calculated according to MoS routes timetables. The frequency delay t f is a quantity, which is added to all the other times, which takes into account the route frequency: 1 Opw t f 8 f Considered intermodal accompanied transport for analyzing the current situation: personnel would be necessary to look after the trailer at the intermediate port in intermodal unaccompanied transport. a Lupi et al. An analysis on the potential Motorways of the Sea alternative to all-road transport in the Ligurian - Northern Tyrrhenian area. SIDT Scientific Seminar 2017

10 Calculation of monetary costs Monetary cost of intermodal transport: Ticket cost: composed of several voices e.g. bunkering, insurance, driver cabin, etc. reported in MoS operators websites Driver cost: composed of: Driver cost for boarding/unboarding the truck and trailer: 26 /h ; n working hours assumed as follows: In accompanied transport: 1h for boarding and 0,5h for unboarding. In unaccompanied transport: 0,5 h for both boarding and unboarding Cost for working hours lost by the driver on board Only in accompanied transport n hours lost calculated according to the EU law n 561/2006 A reduced fee, equal to 17,60 /h, is applied

11 C Calculation of generalized costs Generalized cost of intermodal transport: g Intermodal accompanied transport, with transhipment at the intermediate port: h h h t t t t t VOT t VOT Cb ,5 17,6 b1 b2 w n1 n2 cs1 cs2 Intermodal accompanied transport, without transhipment: C g C 26 1,5 17, 6 h b t t VOT t VOT Intermodal unaccompanied transport: C C 26 1 t t VOT g b b A VOT (Value of Time) of 6,82 /h has been considered (Feo et al., 2011). n cs t VOT n cs f f w f Lupi et al. An analysis on the potential Motorways of the Sea alternative to all-road transport in the Ligurian - Northern Tyrrhenian area. SIDT Scientific Seminar 2017

12 The current situation of the intermodal transport There are no direct routes between the considered O/D pairs: it is always necessary to change ship (and route) at an intermediate port in Corsican or Sardinia This highly increases travel times and costs: It is necessary to buy two tickets high fares as no ticket integration exists The two routes are not in coincidence long waiting time at the intermediate port Only accompanied transport is possible currently because personnel is necessary to look after the trailer at the intermediate port. Lupi et al. An analysis on the potential Motorways of the Sea alternative to all-road transport in the Ligurian - Northern Tyrrhenian area. SIDT Scientific Seminar 2017

13 O/D pair Freq. by week MoS routes Operators Voyage time + loading/unloading Wait time at intermediate port Frequency delay Total travel time Monetary cost Generalized cost Livorno - Marseilles 5 Livorno - Bastia Sardinia / Corsica Ferries 06:05 Bastia - Marseilles SNCM, La Méridionale 14:30 04:05 04:12 28: Marseilles - Livorno 7 Marseilles - Bastia SNCM, La Méridionale 14:00 Bastia - Livorno Sardinia / Corsica Ferries 06:10 02:40 03:00 25: Livorno - Toulon 7 Livorno - Bastia Sardinia / Corsica Ferries 06:05 Bastia Toulon Sardinia / Corsica Ferries 12:30 04:35 03:00 26: Toulon - Livorno 7 Toulon Bastia Sardinia / Corsica Ferries 12:00 Bastia Livorno Sardinia / Corsica Ferries 06:10 02:20 03:00 23: Livorno - Nice 4 Livorno Bastia Sardinia / Corsica Ferries 06:05 Bastia Nice Sardinia / Corsica Ferries 07:45 16:00 05:15 35: Nice - Livorno 4 Nice Bastia Sardinia / Corsica Ferries 08:00 Bastia Livorno Sardinia / Corsica Ferries 06:10 13:20 05:15 32:

14 Monetary cost ( ) Travel time (hh:mm) Generalized cost ( ) Distance (km) n departures per week Monetary cost ( ) Travel time (hh:mm) Generalized cost ( ) Distance (km) diff. % monetary cost diff. % cgeneralized cost All-road Intermodal O/D pair Livorno Nice : : ,66% 66,42% Nice Livorno : : ,00% 60,95% Livorno Toulon : : ,02% 20,71% Toulon Livorno : : ,02% 19,12% Livorno Marseilles : : ,11% 24,78% Marseilles Livorno : : ,11% 23,10%

15 Comparison, in travel time, monetary and generalized cost, between all-road and intermodal transport, for the O/D pair Livorno Nice.

16 Improvement scenarios considered 1. Introduction of the Ecobonus: reduction by 25% in the ticket cost 2. Fares integration: an unique ticket for the two routes composing the service between the O/D pair relevant reduction in monetary cost 3. Merging of the two routes, used to connect each O/D pair: for example merging of the routes Livorno Bastia and Bastia Nice in an unique route Livorno Bastia Nice. relevant reduction in travel times without the need of developing a point-to-point route Livorno Nice. relevant reduction in costs because unaccompanied transport is possible 4. Development of new point-to-point routes which connect ports in the mainland high investment but the best performances. Lupi et al. An analysis on the potential Motorways of the Sea alternative to all-road transport in the Ligurian - Northern Tyrrhenian area. SIDT Scientific Seminar 2017

17 Monetary cost ( ) all-road Generalized cost( ) all-road Ticket price ( ) without ecobonus Ticket price ( ) with ecobonus Monetary cost ( ) without ecobonus Monetary cost ( ) with ecobonus Generalized cost ( ) with ecobonus diff. % monetary cost with ecobonus diff. % generalized cost with ecobonus 1. Introduction of the ecobonus All-road Intermodal Path Livorno - Bastia Nice Nice - Bastia Livorno Livorno - Bastia Toulon Toulon - Bastia Livorno Livorno - Bastia Marseilles Marseilles - Bastia Livorno , , ,2 1186,5 23,82% 47,53% , , ,2 1142,6 20,16% 42,08% , , ,8 1183,3-6,79% 4,74% , , ,8 1165,1-6,79% 3,13% , , ,2 1340,1-4,01% 7,49% , , ,2 1319,4-4,01% 5,83%

18 2. Fare integration (+ ecobonus) In order to determine a functional relation between the ticket price and the route length, several formulas have been studied. The best one resulted: p = k + m l Where: p = ticket price; l = route length; k and m = coefficients determined through linear regression Sample: values of route length and ticket price of all routes in operation in the study area All details reported in the full paper Regression results: Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(> t ) (Intercept) 230, ,2109 3,234 0,01199 * X 0,8509 0,2310 3,683 0,00619 ** --- Signif. codes: 0 *** 0,001 ** 0,01 * 0,05. 0,1 1 Lupi et al. An analysis on the potential Motorways of the Sea alternative to all-road transport in the Ligurian - Northern Tyrrhenian area. SIDT Scientific Seminar 2017 Multiple R-squared: 0,629, Adjusted R-squared: 0,5827

19 Fare integration results Monetary cost ( ) Generalized cost ( ) Monetary cost ( ) with fares integration Generalized cost ( ) with fares integration Difference % monetary cost Difference % generalized cost All-road Intermodal Path Livorno - Bastia Nice ,22 705,2 1004,3-7,82% 24,88% Nice - Bastia - Livorno ,22 705,2 988,4-7,82% 22,90% Livorno - Bastia - Toulon ,73 782,8 961,3-27,38% -14,91% Toulon - Bastia - Livorno ,73 782,8 943,1-27,38% -16,52% Livorno - Bastia - Marseilles ,7 879,2 1076,1-26,18% -13,68% Marseilles - Bastia - Livorno ,7 879,2 1055,4-26,18% -15,34% Lupi et al. An analysis on the potential Motorways of the Sea alternative to all-road transport in the Ligurian - Northern Tyrrhenian area. SIDT Scientific Seminar 2017

20 3. Merging of the two routes (+ ecobonus) The fares integration highly reduces monetary costs but travel times remain high: the intermodal path Livorno Nice has a duration of around 35h against the 5h 45 min of all-road path. Merging of the two routes composing the intermodal path: e.g. merging of routes Livorno Bastia and Bastia Nice in an unique route Livorno Nice with intermediate stop in Bastia. this reduces the total travel time (in this case from 35 to 18h) as the duration of the intermediate stop is reduced to the minimum Also the monetary cost is reduced because unaccompanied transport is possible: it is not necessary to change the ship. A model has been developed for calculating the ticket price from the route length also for unaccompanied transport: p non,acc = 170,96 + 0,71 l

21 Origin Desination Intermediate port Monetary cost ( ) Trave time (hh:mm) Generalized cost ( ) Distance (km) Monetary cost ( ) Travel time (with frequency delay) Generalized cost ( ) Distance (km) Difference % monetary cost Difference % generalized cost Merging of the two routes: results for accompanied transport. All-road Intermodal accompanied Livorno Nice Bastia :45 804, ,2 18:00 631, ,6% -21,6% Livorno Toulon Bastia : , ,1 22:20 814, ,6% -27,9% Livorno Marseilles Bastia : , ,6 24:20 913, ,2% -26,7% Civitavecchia Marseilles Bastia : , ,3 28: ,3% -39,7% Lupi et al. An analysis on the potential Motorways of the Sea alternative to all-road transport in the Ligurian - Northern Tyrrhenian area. SIDT Scientific Seminar 2017

22 Origin Desination Intermediate port Monetary cost ( ) Trave time (hh:mm) Generalized cost ( ) Distance (km) Monetary cost ( ) Travel time (with frequency delay) Generalized cost ( ) Distance (km) Difference % monetary cost Difference % generalized cost Merging of the two routes: results for unaccompanied transport. All-road Intermodal unaccompanied Livorno Nice Bastia :45 804, ,1 19:00 492, ,5% -38,7% Livorno Toulon Bastia : , ,6 23:20 586, ,3% -48,1% Livorno Marseilles Bastia : , ,5 25:20 642, ,6% -48,5% Civitavecchia Marseilles Bastia : , ,2 29:02 716, ,1% -59,4% Lupi et al. An analysis on the potential Motorways of the Sea alternative to all-road transport in the Ligurian - Northern Tyrrhenian area. SIDT Scientific Seminar 2017

23 4. Development of completely new routes (+ ecobonus) Development of completely new routes: Point-to-point routes (direct routes): Civitavecchia Nice (7 departures/week) Civitavecchia Toulon (7 departures/week) Civitavecchia Marseilles (7 departures/week) Livorno Nice (7 departures/week) Livorno Toulon (7 departures/week) Livorno Marseilles (7 departures/week) An indirect (but very important) route: Civitavecchia Marseilles via Genova (7 departures/week): Studied both as unique route and as two distinct routes: Civitavecchia Genova and Genova Marseilles. Lupi et al. An analysis on the potential Motorways of the Sea alternative to all-road transport in the Ligurian - Northern Tyrrhenian area. SIDT Scientific Seminar 2017

24 The proposed new routes

25 Origin Travel times and costs for the proposed new routes. Case of intermodal accompanied transport Destination Intermediate port Monetary cost ( ) Travel time (hh:mm) Generalized cost ( ) Distance (km) Monetary cost ( ) Travel time (with frequency delay) Generalized cost ( ) Distance (km) Difference % monetary cost Difference % generalized cost All-road Intermodal (accompanied) Livorno Nice Direct :45 804, ,0 12:49 477, ,02% -40,64% Livorno Toulon Direct : , ,0 16:48 612, ,80% -45,77% Livorno Marseilles Direct : , ,7 19:23 730, ,73% -41,37% Civitavecchia Nice Direct : , ,7 18:05 671, ,43% -46,98% Civitavecchia Toulon Direct : , ,3 21:43 837, ,35% -47,39% Civitavecchia Marseilles Direct : , ,3 24:05 945, ,83% -46,35% Civitavecchia Marseilles Genoa : , ,5 33: , ,57% -25,96% Civitavecchia Genoa Direct :06 857, ,0 17:11 630, ,59% -26,51% Genoa Marseilles Direct :06 852, ,2 18:09 674, ,16% -20,96%

26 Origin Destination Intermediate port Monetary cost ( ) Travel time (hh:mm) Generalized cost ( ) Distance (km) Monetary cost ( ) Travel time (with frequency delay) Generalized cost ( ) Distance (km) Difference % monetary cost Difference % generalized cost Travel times and costs for the proposed new routes. Case of intermodal unaccompanied transport All-road Intermodal (unaccompanied) Livorno Nice Direct :45 804, ,4 13:49 395, ,60% -50,80% Livorno Toulon Direct : , ,2 17:48 493, ,48% -56,31% Livorno Marseilles Direct : , ,0 20:23 557, ,90% -55,32% Civitavecchia Nice Direct : , ,8 19:05 524, ,15% -58,52% Civitavecchia Toulon Direct : , ,3 22:43 614, ,58% -61,41% Civitavecchia Marseilles Direct : , ,2 25:05 672, ,10% -61,86% Civitavecchia Marseilles Genoa : , ,1 34:20 846, ,26% -51,98% Civitavecchia Genoa Direct :06 857, ,0 18:11 503, ,16% -41,34% Genoa Marseilles Direct :06 852, ,9 19:09 526, ,18% -38,25%

27 Comparison, in travel time and costs, between all-road and intermodal unaccompanied transport, for the O/D pair Livorno Nice, direct route

28 Comparison, in travel time and costs, between all-road and unaccompanied transport, for the route Civitavecchia Genoa Marseilles

29 Conclusions The intermodal alternative, based on MoS, to all-road mode, in the Ligurian-Tyrrhenian area was studied. The current situation of the intermodal transport is not competitive in terms of travel times times and monetary and generalized costs. several improvement scenarios have been studied: The first 3 scenarios require limited investments but some significant reductions in terms of costs and travel times are obtained (particularly in the 3 th one Merging of the two routes The 4 th scenario (development of completely new routes) requires more significant investments but provides the best results. But even point-to-point routes (4 th scenario) have higher travel times than all-road transport: Times for loading/unloading the trailer are relevant (2-3 hours). The cruise speed of ro-ro ships is rarely over 30 kn (50-55 km/h): it is less than trucks speed. The travel time of intermodal transport comprises the frequency delay (equal to 3 hours if the MoS route has 1 departure / day)

30 Conclusions (2) To improve the competitiveness of MoS it is necessary to invest in reliable, frequent, fast and low-cost MoS routes However it is easy to reduce costs, but it is more difficult to reduce travel times It is necessary to discourage road transport. Successful measures penalize use of specific roads/motorways where the intermodal alternative exists: e.g. the introduction of a penalty for use of Ligurian motorways. General measures, e.g. fuel taxes, result only in an increase of transport costs. In our case study it is shown that, by optimizing intermodal transport, it is possible to obtain a break even distance, at least from the point of view of monetary costs, much less than the values proposed in literature: In our case we had the break-even of monetary costs for a distance, of road mode, equal to 372 km. In literature much higher values are proposed (reported in the full paper): between 800 and 1400 km Our case is in favour to intermodal transport: we don t have the road parts of intermodal transport, which could be very expensive.

31 Thank you for the attention Lupi et al. An analysis on the potential Motorways of the Sea alternative to all-road transport in the Ligurian - Northern Tyrrhenian area. SIDT Scientific Seminar 2017