The Future of Business Air Travel

Transcription

1 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD 156 The Future of Business Air Travel DAVIDE. RAPHAEL AND CLAIRE STARRY Reent data indiate that business travel is slowing, and most business travelers are aggressively pursuing travel management poliies that inlude limits on travel and negotiations with airlines for lower fares. Some analysts find that business air travel may be further adversely affeted from the proliferation of ommuniations tehnologies, inluding teleonferening. Four findings are disussed: Statistially signifiant hanges in the relationship of business air travel to gross domesti produt (GDP) ourred in the late 198s; reovery of business travel is likely to be less robust ompared with previous business yles. Eonometri analysis of business and total passenger enplanements in the U.S. domesti air system indiate that a signifiant deline in the elastiity of demand with respet to GDP ourred in the late 198s and early 199s. About 4 industrial setors aount for 8 perent of business air travel. Median job and output growth for many of these setors are below the national average. Many ompanies now turn to travel managers or travel servie organizations and third-party firms to manage travel. Business air travelers are no longer willing to pay substantially higher air fares than personal travelers pay and have the skills to ounter the airlines' yield management programs. Most industries are familiar with teleommuniations tehnologies and anedotal evidene indiates many ompanies are urrently substituting teleonferenes for travel, at least for intraompany meetings. Future advanes in teleommuniations and eletroni ommuniations offer additional onvenient and less expensive alternatives to air travel. During the 197s and 198s, business travel growth was an important omponent of airline industry profitability and performane. Business travel was the mainstay of the industry, providing suffiient yields to more than over osts and enabling airlines to offer substantial disounts to personal travelers. Reent data indiate that business travel may no longer be growing, and more business travelers are taking advantage of disount fares. For example, in 1981, disount revenue passenger miles (RPMs) aounted for 7 perent of the total; by 1991, this perentage had risen to over 95 perent (1). Several reasons for the hange in business travel have been suggested, inluding: Teleonferening is beginning to take off. One expert predits that teleommuniations will substitute for 25 perent of business travel by 21 (2). Another survey indiates a small perentage of business air travel has already been diverted to teleommuniations (3). Businesses reognize that air travel osts are substantial and take steps to ontrol these osts through use of travel management poliies. Many ompanies are imposing poliies that lower fares and impose travel restritions. Corporate downsizing, espeially middle managers, likely will result in fewer business travelers. D. E. Raphael, Marar Management Institute, 47 Marsten Avenue, Belmont, Calif C. Starry, TDS Eonomis, 14 Noel Drive, Suite 22, Menlo Park, Calif To help understand the extent to whih the above and other fators are influening business travel, this study attempts to answer the following questions: 1. Has there been a downward shift in the elastiity of demand for air travel with respet to gross domesti produt? 2. Whih industrial setors are the major purhasers of business air travel, and what is likely to be happening to their growth and employment profile over the next several years? 3. Are travel management poliies hanging orporate air travel? 4. How will teleonferening and other ommuniations tehnologies affet business travel? This report is limited to evaluating U.S. domesti passenger enplanements, and relies heavily on seondary data from the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) (4), U.S. Department of Commere, Bureau of Eonomi Analysis (BEA) (5), and the U.S. _Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistis (BLS) (6). THE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND FOR AIR TRAVEL Historially, most analysts found the elastiity of demand for business travel to be inelasti with respet to yields (or fares) and elasti with respet to an inome variable, most ommonly real gross domesti produt (GDP). Sine 1988, growth rates in total enplanements have slowed. Figure 1 shows the atual growth in total passenger enplanements ompared with the predited growth using a regression equation based on data ( 4). The gap that starts in 1988 reahes about 1 perent by 1993 and delines to about 6% in (If log linear equations are used, the differene between foreast and atual is over 2%.) Most of the 1994 growth in enplanements, however, was aounted for by short haul trips and disount fares. Data from passenger surveys (3) suggest that business enplanements as a perentage of total enplanements delined about 5 perentage points over the late 198s and early 199s. To test the hypothesis that the relationship between business air travel and GDP has hanged, we onduted an eonometri analysis using the regression equations shown in Table 1. From 1988 onward, a dummy variable is used. If this variable is signifiantly different from zero (a t stati greater than 1.8 at the 95 perent signifi_ane level), the hypothesis of a hange in the relationship is not rejeted. For both the linear and log-linear models, the dummy variable is signifiant, indiating that suh a hange in the business air travel elastiity of demand has ourred. Time series data for more years are available for total passenger enplanements. Additional tests are made using these data, and they also support the hypothesis that signifiant hanges in the demand elastiity relationships ourred at the end of the 198s. Table 2 presents the estimation results for linear and log-linear models that om-

2 2 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD , C/) 'E E ro a.. w CJ) "'O : ro C/) :l..t::...._ 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, -- --Atual / -...,..-' -. 2, ---- Predited 15, 1, FIGURE 1 Atual versus predited total domesti passenger enplanements: pare the period to the period. A test to determine if the oeffiients are signifiantly different (7) is onduted for both models. The results, summarized in Table 3, indiate a differene in oeffiients at the 95 perent level for both the linear and loglinear models, and a differene in oeffiients at the 99 perent level for the log-linear model. We also tested the hypothesis using dummy variables for the period. For both the linear and loglinear models, the dummy variables are signifiant at the 95 perent level, and at the 99 perent level for the log-linear model. Eonometri analysis definitely supports the ontention that a major hange has ourred in the funtional relationship between business travel and traditional explanatory variables, GDP, and yield. This shift indiates that business enplanements, while ontinuing to grow with the eonomy, will be growing at a rate lower than that of GDP or similar variable. Preliminary data are unertain about the hange in passenger enplanements in Surveys of business travelers suggest business travel will be up, but often travel budgets are the same or lower. Many ompanies report that they will be inreasing the number of airline trips but spending less on air fares beause they have implemented ost ontrol and travel management poliies (8). INDUSTRY SPECIFIC ANALYSIS Major Purhasers of Air Transportation As shown in Figure 2, the manufaturing industries aount for less than 2 perent of business air travel expenditures. Federal, state, TABLE 1 Estimated Elastiities of Demand for Business Air Travel, Equation R2 F-Statisti GDP Elastiity Yield Elastiity Dummy Variablet Linear (6.4) Log Linear (6.) (-1.l) (-2.) (-.9) (-2.) t Set equal to zero for years 1977 to 1988, and equal to 1for1989 to Note: t-statistis given in parenthesis.

3 Raphael and Stany 3 TABLE2 Estimated Elastiities of Demand for Total Air Travel, GDP Yield Dummy Time Period Adjusted R2 F Statisti Elastiity Elastiity Variablet Linear Equations (1.12) (-.5) (8.18) (-2.99) (6.66) (-3.7) ,97 (6.92) (-2.8) (-1.79) Log-Linear Equations (1.3) (-.59) (12.83) (-2.47) (8.32) (-.78) (11.22) (-1.62) (-3.93) t Dummy variable equals O for 1969 to 1987, and 1 for 1988 to A signifiant value indiates that an adjustment to the equation ourred during the seond time period. Note: t-statistis given in parenthesis. and loal government setors aount for about 12% of business air travel. The remaining two-thirds of business air travel is primarily in the servies setors, inluding wholesale and retail trade, finane, insurane, and real estate, and a broad range of other servies suh as management onsulting, legal, medial, and eduational servies. Teleommuniations expenditures (disussed in the setion below) are more highly skewed toward the ommuniations (about a third of expenditures on ommuniations ome from other ommuniations industries or ompanies), and are less likely to be affeted by the downturn in aerospae and 9efense and delines in the number of manufaturing jobs. Using BEA data (4), we identified the top 4 out of approximately 48 industrial setors that aounted for 8 perent of busi-. ness expenditures on business air travel in the late 198s. (See Table 4.) This setion evaluates these industries in terms of their past and future growth prospets, beause to a onsiderable extent, the fortunes of these 4 setors ditate the fortunes of the air industry. Growth Prospets As a whole, the top 4 setors are foreast by the BLS (5) to grow slower than the national average. For the deade of the 199s, the median growth rate in employment for these industries is 1. perent and the average growth in real output is 2.1 perent. These ompare with 1.3 and 2.7 perent, respetively, for the U.S. eonomy. Only 1 of the 4 top air travel industries are foreast to have faster job growth between 1992 and 25 ompared with their job growth during the period The top 1 business air travel setors inlude the U.S. Department of Defense, whih is undergoing utbaks in funding and personnel; the U.S. Post Offie, whih is faed with inreasing ompetition from the private setor, and fasimile mahines; and publi eduation, whih is suffering from finanial problems in many parts of the ountry. Several of the top setors are onsidered to be high growth ones, at least in terms of employment. These inlude management onsulting and retail trade. High growth manufaturing setors, inluding semiondutors and omputers, are also among the top industries. Although some growth in business air travel is expeted from the manufaturing setors, the emphasis plaed on ost ontrol ould easily keep expenditures level, ontinue downward pressure on yields, and moderate the growth in enplanements. Overall, the omposition of industries that aount for 8 perent of business air travel is hanging, and future shifts will emphasize the trend toward the servie setors being the primary business air travel users. TABLE 3 Test for Equality between Coeffiients Model FRaho Rejet Null Rejet Null Hypothesis at 5 % Hypothesis at 1 % Signifiane Levelt Signifiane Levelt Linear 3.8 Log linear 13.6 Yes Yes No Yes t Null hypothesis is that the oeffiients for the 1969 to 1987 period are equal (not signifiantly different from) the oeffiients for the 1988 to 1993 period. For 5%, the F ratio must exeed 3.1 to rejet the null hypothesis; for 1 % the F ratio must exeed 4.94.

4 4 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD % > u 4%.= :.a: 35% : Passenger Air (/) (/) : 3% - El Communiations (.) :- : 25% : :i a. E x w E 2% 8 (/) (/) 15% "(;) :i CXl 1% : 5% (.) Qi a.. % i- O'l iii o, u - : 2 t5 u... iii u "S o, <( (.) u vi - - (/) : (.) t a. :i (/) E 5 : u E.= (.) "'O w a: u::: (/) (.) - Cf') : E Q; >. (!) FIGURE 2 Distribution of air travel and teleommuniations expenditures by setor. USE OF TRAVEL MANAGERS There has been a ontinued inrease in the number of businesses using travel agents and travel managers to help ontrol osts. The perentage of orporations that have orporate travel managers has grown from 7.5 to 38% between 1982 and 1993 (9). Nearly 8% of ompanies surveyed that spend more than $5 million on travel and entertainment (T &E) have suh a manager. The role of travel manager has beome more important as ompanies take steps to ontrol travel and formalize poliies. These managers generally report to a orporate administrative offie. Data from the 1991 Travel Weekly survey indiate that 23% of orporate lients of travel agenies had written guidelines or poliies that year. By 1994, this perentage inreased to 38%. The major fous of the poliies is on air travel. The perentage of ageny bookings oming from orporate travel managers or oordinators inreased from 9% in 1991 to 12% in 1994 (1). The Amerian Express survey found that 64% of ompanies with 1 employees or more had formal written travel guidelines. Large ompanies are muh more likely to have poliies: 96% of ompanies with T &E budgets over $5 million and 9% of ompanies with budgets from $1 million to $5 million report that they had formal written guidelines in plae, ompared with only 28% of ompanies with T&E budgets under $1,. Variation is wide among ompanies and industries in terms of travel poliies, ost ontrol, and use of teleommuniations. Companies in manufaturing and engineering industries are generally the most ost onsious. Any ompany, however, that operates in a very ompetitive environment arefully srutinizes air travel and looks for ways to ontrol osts. At the other extreme, onsulting, legal, some finanial, and similar industries are lax in implementing and enforing poliies and are not aggressive in seeking out the lowest possible air fare. The type of trip most likely to be restrited is that involved with meeting other employees of the same ompany. Conversely, the type of trip least likely to be restrited is one involving sales alls to existing or prospetive lients. COMPETITION FROM TELECOMMUNICATIONS All industries use teleommuniations, and teleommuniations expenditures generally exeed those of air transportation by about 2.5 to 1. The same is true for industrial setors that are the mainstay of business air travel. (See Figure 3.) Many setors that offer the greatest prospets for growth, however, also tend to be those that have the highest ratio of teleommuniations expenditures to air travel expenditures: for example, trade, transportation, eletronis and omputers, and ommuniations equipment and some business servies. These industries are among those most likely to embrae teleommuniations as an aepted means of doing business. Other studies support the growing use of teleommuniations. One indiates the extent of substitution should be 5 perent by 2 and 25 perent by 21 (2). Clearly substitution will depend on the availability and ost of teleommuniations versus air travel, and also the aeptane of teleommuniations ompared with fae-tofae ontat. Teleommuniations osts will ontinue to deline relative to air travel osts. The ability of ommuniations to replae

5 Raphael and Starry 5 TABLE4 Estimated Expenditures on Air Travel by Seleted Industries, 1977, 1982, and Growth rate Millions of Dollars Wholesale trade 1,38 1,95 4,37 17% Air transportationt 867 1,396 4,113 24% Consulting servies ,641 28% State and loal government 785 1,21 1,866 9% Federal government, defense 614 1,484 1,817 4% Seurity and ommodity brokers ,243 14% Assoiations , % Legal servies ,97 35% U.S. Postal Servie % Retail trade % Colleges, universities % Federal government, nondefense % Banking % Airraft 1, % Dotors and dentists % Freight forwarders and other transportation servies % Periodials % Newspapers % Constrution % Real estate % Eletroni omputers % Eletri servies (utilities) % Engineering servies % Other business servies % Insurane arriers % Other membership organizations % Computer and data proessing servies % Motor freight transportation and warehousing % Aounting, auditing and bookkeeping, and % Insurane agents, brokers, and servies % Radio and TV broadasting % Credit agenies other than banks % Labor organizations, ivi, soial, and fraternal % Communiations exept radio and TV % Motor vehiles and ar bodies % Industrial inorgani and organi hemials % Computer peripheral equipment 166 Airraft and missile engines and engine parts % Agriultural, forestry, and fishery servies % Commerial printing 6 ill 143 5% Total business and government 12,163 21,912 35,526 1% Personal onsumption 12,769 2,574 29,349 7% Exports 2,146 5,691 1,186 12% Imports -2,233-3,931-5,711 8% Total industry output 24,846 44,245 69,35 9% t Air Transportation inludes imputed value of servies provided by one airline to another. Soure: U.S. Deparunnt of Commere, Bureau of Eonomi Analysis. fae-to-fae meetings may depend, to a large measure, on the underlying reason for air travel. Disussions with urrent users of teleonferening suggest most of the existing appliations are for intraompany meetings or for meetings involving ompanies that are working together on speifi projets. Sales alls still generally are held fae-to-fae, and ommuniations tehnologies have yet to provide an alternative for large-sale onferenes, onventions, and trade shows. About half of business travel is for meetings, onventons, and trade shows (1). The remainder of business travel is fairly evenly divided between intraompany business and interompany business. The most likely andidate for replaement of business air travel is intraompany business, or about 25 perent of air travel. Disussions with travel representatives in several U.S. orporations support the trend toward substituting ommuniations for intraompany meetings. Several ompanies reported they have written poliies restriting air travel, espeially for meetings that only involve other employees. Not all intraompany travel an be substituted, for muh of it requires physial presene, suh as repair or installation of equipment of programs. The possible small substitution of ommuniations for business air travel (3) and the foreasted 5 perent substitution by 2 are onsistent with the regression equations presented previously in this report. They are also onsistent with our understanding of the size. and role of intraompany travel as a perentage of the total. Whether or not ommuniations an reah 25 perent or more substitution will depend on tehnologies, ustomer aeptane, and osts, all of whih are still major unknowns.

6 Wholesale trade Air transportationt Management and onsulting servies State and loal gov't, total Federal gov't defense Seurity and ommodity brokers Business and professional assoiations Legal servies U.S. Postal Servie Retail trade, exept food servie Colleges, universities, and professional shools Federal gov't nondefense Banking Airraft Dotors and dentists Freight forwarders and other transportation servies D Communiations Air Transport Periodials Newspapers New and maintenane onstrution Real estate agents and servies Eletroni omputers Eletri servies (utilities) Engineering, arhitetural, and surveying servies Other business servies Automotive rental and leasing 1,CXXJ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, Millions of Dollars t Air Transportation inludes imputed value of servies provided by one airline to another. Soure: U.S. Department of Commere, Bureau of Eonomi Analysis, 1987 Input Output Tables. FIGURE 3 Passenger air transportation and ommuniations expenditures for seleted industries, tair transportation inludes imputed value of servies provided by one airline to another. Soure: U.S. Department of Commere, Bureau of Eonomi Analysis, 1987 Input Output Tables, 1987

7 Raphael and Starry 7 CONCLUSIONS There has been a definite downward shift in business air travel, as substantiated by eonometri analysis. The downward shift started in 1988, at a time when the eonomy started into a reession and businesses began orporate restruturing and downsizing. Reent data onfirm that the 1993 reovery did not produe the rebound that would be expeted with previous demand elastiities. We identified about 4 industrial setors that aount for 8 perent of business air travel expenditures. We examined these businesses for several fators, inluding growth prospets and willingness to use teleommuniations. The results of this analysis support the ontention that business air travel will not be as strong in the 199s and in previous deades. Many of the traditional business travel industries are not performing well or are foreast to grow slower than the national average. Among these industries are defense, aerospae, and the U.S. Post Offie. Most of the important business travel setors spend more on teleommuniations than air travel. Through anedotal evidene, it is lear many of the larger ompanies are frequent users of new ommuniations tehnologies, at least for intraompany meetings. Indeed, several ompanies have already mandated the use of teleommuniations whenever reasonable or feasible. Changes that are slowing the growth of air travel inlude downsizing of middle management; inreased ontrol over orporate travel; and the spread of teleommuniations, eletroni mail, and eletroni data interhange (EDI) for ommuniations and ontat with suppliers, ustomers, and employees. In many industries, the use of multiple ommuniations tehnologies is hanging how business people interat with eah other. The net affet of hanging industry struture, ost ontrol, and teleommuniations on business air travel is unertain. The industry shift, away from manufaturing and toward servies should help inrease enplanements, beause of the faster rate of growth in sales and employment displayed by the servie setors. However, travel management and teleommuniations are likely to plae downward pressure on business travel growth with the result that overall business enplanements and expenditures on air travel will not grow as fast as in the 198s. REFERENCES 1. Greens let, E. The Aviation Environment. Presented at 17th Annual FAA Foreast Conferene Proeedings, Arvai, E. S. Teleommuniations and Business Travel: The Revolution Has Begun. In Transportation Researh Cirular 425. TRB, National Researh Counil, Washington, D.C., May Air Transport Assoiation/Gallup Survey, U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, FAA Aviation Foreasts, various issues. 5. U.S. Department of Commere, Bureau of Eonomi Analysis, The 1987 Benhmark Input-Output Aounts for the United States, Deember 1994, and earlier Input-Output Tables for 1982 and U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistis. Outlook , May Chow, G. Tests of Equality between Sets of Coeffiients in Two Linear Regressions. Eonometria, Vol. 28, 196, pp New York Times. Expense Aount Heyday Over, Companies Demand Cheap Fares. July 27, The Amerian Express Survey, based on a mail questionnaire that was sent to U.S. businesses and government and eduational organizations. The survey was fielded in Marh and April Wada, I. Let's Make a Deal. Travel Weekly, August 18, Publiation of this report sponsored by Committee on Aviation Eonomis and Foreasting.