The Economic Impact of Travel in Minnesota Analysis

Transcription

1 The Economic Impact of Travel in Minnesota 2013 Analysis

2 Overview

3 2013 Highlights Traveler Spending Traveler spending of $10.3 billion generated $17.6 billion in total business sales in 2013 as travel dollars flowed through the state s economy. Travelers to Minnesota destinations spent 3.8% more in 2013 than in Traveler Counts Minnesota hosted 68.9 million travelers in Overnight travel grew in 2013 as improving economic conditions and moderating growth in transportation costs encouraged travel. 3

4 2013 Highlights Jobs A total of 181,901 jobs, with income of $5.1 billion, were sustained by travelers to Minnesota in Traveler-supported employment grew 3.1% from 2011 to Taxes Including indirect and induced impacts, travel in Minnesota generated nearly $1.2 billion in state and local taxes and $1.3 billion in Federal taxes in In the absence of the state and local taxes generated by travelers, each Minnesota household would need to pay $543 to fill the gap. 4

5 Comparability with previous report The reader should be cautioned about comparing this 2013 analysis with the 2011 analysis that was released in Several updates and revisions have been incorporated. As a result, some figures presented in this report are different from those in the previous report. The main difference has been in the measurement of international visitation and spending. More detailed and focused data from the National Travel & Tourism Office (NTTO) along with new data sources reporting on the number and size of the international market have resulted in modifications to the international visitation and spending results in this report. While changes have been made, these improvements have resulted in minimal changes to the figures of most importance like total travel spending in Minnesota and the year-over-year changes between travel segments and spending categories. 5

6 Traveler Spending

7 A story of strength Travel volume to Minnesota reached 68.9 million With travel growth in Minnesota led by growth in overnight travel and improving consumer sentiment, traveler spending in 2013 grew nearly 7.8% over 2011 levels. Minnesota Travel Volume and Spending US$ Billions Traveler Spending, bls (L) Person-Stays, mls (R) Sources: Longwoods International, NTTO, Stats Can, Tourism Economics Millions

8 $ Billions Continued growth in traveler spending Traveler spending continued to grow in both 2012 and 2013 even after the strong growth seen in Traveler spending grew 3.8% in 2013 to reach $10.3 billion. Traveler spending growth has averaged 4.7% per annum over the past four years. Minnesota Traveler Spending US$ Billions 12 $9.6 $9.9 $ $9.0 $ Spending (L) % Change (R) Sources: Longwoods International, NTTO, Stats Can, Tourism Economics 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 8

9 Lodging sector leads Traveler spending performance was particularly supported by spending growth in the lodging sector in 2013 Traveler Spending (US$ Million) Sector % Change Lodging $1,670 $1,788 $1,904 $1,970 $2, % F&B $2,034 $2,106 $2,324 $2,381 $2, % Retail $1,523 $1,577 $1,704 $1,738 $1, % Rec $1,512 $1,534 $1,514 $1,565 $1, % Trans $804 $900 $995 $1,099 $1, % 2nd homes $548 $567 $602 $632 $ % Air $474 $490 $538 $537 $ % TOTAL $8,566 $8,962 $9,581 $9,922 $10, % % Change 4.6% 6.9% 3.6% 3.8% 9

10 Traveler spending by sector Minnesota Traveler Spending 10 Lodging 20.6% Air 5.4% 2nd homes 6.4% Trans 11.2% F&B 23.5% Rec 15.7% Sources: Longwoods International, NTTO, Stats Can, Tourism Economics F&B: Retail: Lodging: Trans: Rec: 2nd homes: Air: Food & Beverages Retail Shopping Accommodations Sales Non-Air Transportation Recreation & Entertainment 2nd Home Rental Spending Air Transportation Spending Retail 17.2% F&B spending represents nearly a quarter of all traveler spending. With growth in both occupancy and room rates, the share of the traveler dollar spend on lodging has grown to 20.6% in Retail purchases represent 17.2% of every traveler dollar.

11 Traveler spending by sector Minnesota Traveler Spending by Year, Share of Total 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 5.5% 5.5% 5.6% 5.4% 5.4% 9.4% 10.0% 10.4% 11.1% 11.2% 17.7% 17.1% 15.8% 15.8% 15.7% 17.8% 17.6% 17.8% 17.5% 17.2% 23.7% 23.5% 24.3% 24.0% 23.5% 19.5% 20.0% 19.9% 19.9% 20.6% Air Trans Rec Retail F&B Lodging The share of the traveler dollar spent on lodging has grown since 2011 with growth in both rooms rented and ADR. In 2013, growth in transportation costs moderated and the share of the traveler dollar dedicated to transportation remained steady. Sources: Longwoods International, NTTO, Stats Can, Tourism Economics 11

12 Traveler spending by sector Minnesota Traveler Spending by Year, Billions of $ $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $0.6 $0.5 $0.5 $1.1 $0.5 $1.0 $1.1 $0.5 $0.9 $0.8 $1.5 $1.6 $1.6 $1.5 $1.5 $1.7 $1.7 $1.8 $1.5 $1.6 $2.0 $2.1 $2.3 $2.4 $2.4 $2 $1.7 $1.8 $1.9 $2.0 $2.1 $ Sources: Longwoods International, NTTO, Stats Can, Tourism Economics 12 Air Trans Rec Retail F&B Lodging F&B: Retail: Lodging: Trans: Rec: 2nd homes: Air: Food & Beverages Retail Shopping Accommodations Sales Non-Air Transportation Recreation & Entertainment 2nd Home Rental Spending Air Transportation Spending

13 Percentage Distribution Travelers by market Minnesota hosted 68.9 million travelers in The vast majority were from domestic markets (98%) and came for leisure (87%). Travelers by Market 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Both International Business Overnight Domestic Leisure Day Purpose Day/Overnight Market Travelers by Market (Millions) % Chng Share Purpose % 100.0% Leisure % 86.7% Business % 10.2% Both % 3.0% Stay % 100.0% Day % 56.0% Overnight % 44.0% Market % 100.0% Domestic % 98.2% Canada % 1.4% Overseas % 0.4% Note: travelers are counted on a person-trip basis 13

14 Traveler spending by market Traveler Spending By Market Domestic 91.8% Overseas 5.5% Canada 2.6% Domestic travel accounted for 92% of all traveler spending in the state of Minnesota. Canadian and overseas travelers spend more per trip than domestic travelers. International markets accounted for 1.8% of travelers, but 8.2% of total traveler spending. 14

15 Overnight and day markets Minnesota hosted 68.9 million travelers in The majority of travelers were day travelers (56%). While only 44% of all trips, overnight traveler spending accounts for more than 80% of all traveler spending, generating $8.3 billion. Overnight travelers spent $274 in Minnesota during their trip. Trips and Spend 2013, in millions Total Travelers 68.9 Overnight 30.2 Day 38.6 Total Spending $10,297 Overnight $8,286 Day $2,010 Per Traveler Spending $149 Overnight $274 Day $52 Traveler Spending Breakout Share of Total 100% 90% 80% 70% With overnight travelers staying an average of 3.09 days, per person per day spending for the overnight traveler was $89. 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Trips Spending Day Overnight 15

16 Traveler spending by market segment Leisure travel s share of traveler spending accounted for 89.5% of all traveler spending in Minnesota in Overnight travelers spent $8.3 billion in Minnesota in 2013, 80.5% of the total. Domestic travelers represent 92% of all traveler spending. 16 Purpose Business $1.1 Day $2.0 Domestic $9.5 Leisure $9.2 Overnight $8.3 Overseas $0.6 Canada $0.3 Total $10.3 Total $10.3 Total $10.3 Purpose Traveler Spending in 2013 (US$ Billion) Stay Share Stay Market Market Business 10.5% Day 19.5% Domestic 91.8% Leisure 89.5% Overnight 80.5% Overseas 5.5% Canada 2.6%

17 Percentage distribution Traveler spending by market segment Spending by Market 100% 90% 80% 2.6% 5.5% Canada Overseas 70% 60% 50% 40% Leisure 89.5% Overnight 80.5% Domestic 91.8% 30% 20% 10% 0% Business Day 19.5% 10.5% Purpose Stay Market Sources: Longwoods International, NTTO, Stats Can, Tourism Economics 17

18 State Travel Impacts

19 How traveler spending generates impact Travelers create direct economic value within a discrete group of sectors (e.g. recreation, transportation). This supports a relative proportion of jobs, wages, taxes, and GDP within each sector. Each directly affected sector also purchases goods and services as inputs (e.g. food wholesalers, utilities) into production. These impacts are called indirect impacts. Lastly, the induced impact is generated when employees whose incomes are generated either directly or indirectly by travel, spend those incomes in the state economy. 19

20 Travel generated sales Travel Sales (US$ Million) Direct Indirect Induced Total Agriculture, Fishing, Mining Construction and Utilities Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Air Transport Other Transport Retail Trade 1, ,073.6 Gasoline Stations Communications Finance, Insurance and Real Estate , ,830.0 Business Services ,094.4 Education and Health Care Recreation and Entertainment 1, ,708.3 Lodging 2, ,127.8 Food & Beverage 2, ,754.6 Personal Services Government TOTAL 10, , , ,622.0 % Change ( ) 7.83% 7.52% 8.57% 7.94% 20 Traveler spending of $10.3 billion generated total travel economic impact of $17.6 billion in 2013 as traveler dollars flowed through the Minnesota economy.

21 FIRE F&B Lodging Retail Trade Recreation Bus. Services Education Gas Manu Other Transp Air Transport Comm. Travel sales All business sectors of the Minnesota economy benefit from travel activity directly and/or indirectly. Sectors that serve the travel industry, like business services, gain as suppliers to a dynamic industry. Travel Sales by Industry $ million 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Induced Indirect Direct F&B: Food and Beverage FIRE: Finance, Insurance, Real Estate Bus. Services: Business Services Gas: Gasoline Stations Other Transp: Other Transportation Manu.: Manufacturing Personal Serv.: Personal Services Comm: Communication Significant indirect and induced benefits 21

22 Travel GDP (value added) Travel GDP (Value Added) (US$ Million) Direct Indirect Induced Total Agriculture, Fishing, Mining Construction and Utilities Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Air Transport Other Transport Retail Trade Gasoline Stations Communications Finance, Insurance and Real Estate ,129.5 Business Services Education and Health Care Recreation and Entertainment ,008.1 Lodging 1, ,567.9 Food & Beverage 1, ,441.0 Personal Services Government TOTAL 5, , , ,886.6 % Change ( ) 7.78% 7.25% 6.77% 7.42% 22 Travel generated $9.9 billion in state GDP in 2013, representing 3.3% of the total Minnesota economy. This excludes all import leakages to arrive at the economic value generated by travel.

23 FIRE Lodging F&B Recreation Bus. Retail Trade Education Other Transp Air Transport Construction Wholesale Comm. Travel GDP (value added) The industry that has the largest economic contribution from traveler spending is the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) industry. Travel GDP (Value Added) $ million 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Direct Indirect Induced 0 23

24 Travel employment The travel sector supported 181,901 jobs, growing 3.1% in the two years between 2011 and % of all jobs in Minnesota one of every 19.7 jobs are supported by traveler spending Travel Employment Direct Indirect Induced Total Agriculture, Fishing, Mining Construction and Utilities ,345 Manufacturing - 1, ,612 Wholesale Trade ,424 Air Transport 5, ,213 Other Transport 6,032 1, ,935 Retail Trade 13, ,538 18,102 Gasoline Stations 1, ,870 Communications ,460 Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 4,371 4,037 4,492 12,901 Business Services - 7,538 2,752 10,290 Education and Health Care ,454 7,576 Recreation and Entertainment 25, ,064 27,674 Lodging 29, ,159 Food & Beverage 43,869 2,017 4,226 50,112 Personal Services - 1,062 2,633 3,696 Government ,239 TOTAL 129,119 21,826 30, ,901 % Change ( ) 3.0% 3.0% 3.4% 3.1% Indirect impacts quantify the supply chain to those industries directly providing goods or services to travelers. 24 Induced impacts are generated when employees whose incomes are generated either directly or indirectly by travel, spend those incomes in the state economy.

25 F&B Lodging Recreation Retail Trade FIRE Bus. Services Other Transp Education Air Transport Personal Serv. Gas Manu Travel employment Travel is an employment intensive industry directly supporting 29,106 lodging jobs, nearly 44,000 jobs in the food & beverage industry and more than 25,700 jobs in recreation and entertainment in Secondary benefits are realized across the entire economy through the supply chain and incomes as they are spent. Travel Employment by Industry Thousands Induced Indirect Direct Significant indirect and induced benefits 25

26 Travel employment intensity Direct travel employment is a significant part of employment for several industries 95% of lodging, 31% of recreation, and 23% of food & beverage employment is supported by travel spending. Travel Employment Intensity by Industry Lodging 94.7% Air Trans. 38.2% Recreation 30.8% Food & bev. 22.7% Retail 3.8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 26

27 Travel personal income Travel Labor Income (Compensation) (US$ Million) Direct Indirect Induced Total Agriculture, Fishing, Mining Construction and Utilities Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Air Transport Other Transport Retail Trade Gasoline Stations Communications Finance, Insurance and Real Estate Business Services Education and Health Care Recreation and Entertainment Lodging Food & Beverage Personal Services Government TOTAL 2, , , ,131.5 % Change ( ) 6.7% 7.1% 7.5% 7.0% 27

28 F&B Recreation Bus. Services Lodging FIRE Retail Trade Education Other Transp Air Transport Personal Serv. Wholesale Tr. Manu Travel personal income Significant employment in F&B and recreation drives high labor income in those industries. Above average wages support labor income in supplier industries. The average salary of workers directly supported by traveler spending was $20,650 in Travel Labor Income by Industry $ million 1, Direct Indirect Induced Significant indirect and induced benefits 28

29 Travel tax generation Traveler Generated Taxes (US$ Million) Tax Type Federal Taxes Subtotal 1, , ,310.2 Corporate Indirect Business Personal Income Social Security State and Local Taxes Subtotal 1, , ,155.8 Corporate Personal Income Sales Lodging Property Excise and Fees State Unemployment TOTAL 2, , ,466.0 Taxes of $2.5 billion were directly and indirectly generated by travel in State and local taxes alone tallied $1.15 billion, growing more than $40 million in Each household in Minnesota would need to be taxed an additional $543 per year to replace the traveler taxes received by state and local governments. 29

30 Travel tax generation Traveler Generated Taxes - State and Local Government Revenues (US$ Million) Tax Type Direct Indirect/ Induced Total State Tax Subtotal Corporate Personal Income Sales Lodging Property Excise and Fees State Unemployment Local Tax Subtotal Corporate Personal Income Sales Lodging Property Excise and Fees State Unemployment Of the $1.15 billion in state and local taxes traveler receipts, the state received $676 million Of the $676 million in state revenues, nearly $140 million accrues from income tax collections. Local governments received nearly $480 million in tax receipts from travel-generated activity. 30

31 Methodology and Background

32 Definitions and terms A visitor includes all overnight and day travelers - traveling outside of their usual environment, defined as beyond 50 miles The analysis measures the economic impact of travelers to the State of Minnesota, including: Day trips and overnight travelers Domestic, Canadian and overseas travelers Leisure and business travel 32

33 Quantifying the travel and tourism economy Most economic sectors such as financial services, insurance, or construction are easily defined within a country s national accounts statistics. Travel is not so easily measured because it is not a single industry. It is a demand-side activity which affects multiple sectors to various degrees. Travel spans nearly a dozen sectors including lodging, retail, real estate, air passenger transport, food & beverage, car rental, taxi services, travel agents, and recreation (including museums, theme parks, sports events and others). 33

34 Methods and data sources Domestic traveler expenditure estimates are provided by Longwoods International s representative survey of US travelers. These are broken out by sectors (lodging, transport at destination, food & beverage, retail, and recreation), by purpose (business and leisure), and by length of stay (day and overnight). Tourism Economics (TE) then adds and cross-checks several categories of spending: Overseas traveler spending (source: OTTI, TE) Canada traveler spending (source: Statistics Canada, TE) Spending on air travel which accrues to MN airports and locally-based airlines Gasoline purchases by travelers (source: TE calculation) Recreational second home expenditures (source: US Census) Smith Travel Research (lodging performance) Local level lodging tax data Sales tax by industry (MN Department of Revenue) Industry-by-industry employment and personal income (Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics) 34

35 Methods and data sources An IMPLAN model was utilized for the state of Minnesota. This traces the flow of travelerrelated expenditures through the local economy and their effects on employment, wages, and taxes. IMPLAN also quantifies the indirect (supplier) and induced (income) impacts of travel. Tourism Economics then cross-checks these findings with employment and wage data for each sector to ensure the findings are within reasonable ranges. The source of the employment and wage data is the Regional Economic Information System (REIS), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. This is more comprehensive than Bureau of Labor Statistics (ES202/QCEW) data. The main definitional difference is that sole-proprietors, which do not require unemployment insurance, are not counted in the ES202 data. 35

36 Description of spending categories Spend Category Lodging Recreation Air transport Other transport Shopping Service stations Second homes Food and beverage Description Includes traveler spending in accommodation sector. This includes food and other services provided by hotels and similar establishments. Includes traveler spending within the arts, entertainment and recreation supersector. Includes the local economic activity generated by travelers within the air transport (airline) and support services (on airport) sectors. Includes all forms of local transport services such as taxis, limos, trains, rental cars, and buses. Includes traveler spending within all retail sectors within the Minnesota economy. Traveler spending on gasoline. Only the margin counts as local economic impact. Spending associated with the operation of seasonal second homes for recreational use as defined by the Census Department. This is based on an imputed rent calculation over an estimated peak season. Includes all traveler spending at restaurants and bars. 36

37 Cross section of our clients Corporations Hotel companies Aviation manufacturing Internet marketing Internet distribution Financial institutions Theme Parks Travel trade Associations Caribbean Tourism Org. European Travel Commission Pacific Asia Travel Assoc. US Travel Association DMAI IAAPA WTTC UN World Tourism Org. Tourism Economics serves over 200 clients worldwide every year Destinations Tourism Australia Bahamas Ministry of Tourism Brand USA Visit California Canadian Tourism Commission Dubai Tourism Georgia Tourism Saudi Arabia (SCT) Discover Los Angeles NYC & Company Ontario Ministry of Tourism Visit Orlando Philadelphia Tourism Marketing San Diego CVB Tourism Ireland Visit Britain Visit Denmark Visit Florida Visit Switzerland 37

38 About Tourism Economics Tourism Economics, headquartered in Philadelphia, is an Oxford Economics company dedicated to providing high value, robust, and relevant analyses of the tourism sector that reflects the dynamics of local and global economies. By combining quantitative methods with industry knowledge, Tourism Economics designs custom market strategies, project feasibility analysis, tourism forecasting models, tourism policy analysis, and economic impact studies. Our staff have worked with over 200 destinations to quantify the economic value of tourism, forecast demand, guide strategy, or evaluate tourism policies. Oxford Economics is one of the world s leading providers of economic analysis, forecasts and consulting advice. Founded in 1981 as a joint venture with Oxford University s business college, Oxford Economics is founded on a reputation for high quality, quantitative analysis and evidence-based advice. For this, it draws on its own staff of 80 highly-experienced professional economists; a dedicated data analysis team; global modeling tools; close links with Oxford University, and a range of partner institutions in Europe, the US and in the United Nations Project Link. For more information: info@tourismeconomics.com. 38

39 For more information: Adam Sacks, President Christopher Pike, Director 39