Scotland Car Club Market Analysis

Transcription

1 Scotland Car Club Market Analysis Report Report type August 2011 Prepared for: Carplus First Floor Leeds Bridge House Hunslet Road Leeds LS10 1JN Prepared by: Steer Davies Gleave Upper Ground London SE1 9PD +44 (0)

2

3 CONTENTS EXECUTVE SUMMARY... Review of current situation... i Analysis of potential markets... i Location of new bays... v Conclusions... vi 1 REVEW OF CURRENT STUATON... 1 Car clubs in the UK... 1 nternational case studies... 2 Car clubs in Scotland ANALYSS OF POTENTAL MARKETS... 9 Methodology... 9 Data sources... 9 Ranking of locations by settlement size LOCATON OF NEW BAYS Methodology Data sources Dundee Dunfermline Stirling Clyde Valley (Central) Clyde Valley (East) Clyde Valley (West) CONCLUSONS ntroduction Methodology Qualitative factors to consider FGURES Figure 0.1 Ranking of Car Club Potential by Location Size... iii Figure 1.1 Current Car Club Cars per 10,000 Population... 1 Contents

4 Figure 1.2 Geographical Location of Car Clubs in Great Britain... 2 Figure 1.3 Smarter TravelStyle Participation in Smarter Choices Programmes... 5 Figure 1.4 Edinburgh Car Club Cars per 10,000 Population... 6 Figure 1.5 Edinburgh Smarter TravelStyle Population Profile... 6 Figure 1.6 Glasgow Car Club Cars per 10,000 Population... 7 Figure 1.7 Glasgow Smarter TravelStyle Population Profile... 7 Figure 2.1 Ranking of Car Club Potential by Location Size Figure 3.1 Car Club Demand by Smarter TravelStyle in Dundee Figure 3.2 Figure 3.3 Travel to Work Percentage who do not Travel to Work by Car in Dundee Scottish ndex of Multiple Deprivation - Access to Services Domain in Dundee Figure 3.4 Recommended Car Club Locations in Dundee Figure 3.5 Car Club Demand by Smarter TravelStyle in Dunfermline Figure 3.6 Figure 3.7 Travel to Work Percentage who do not Travel to Work by Car in Dunfermline Scottish ndex of Multiple Deprivation Access to Services Domain in Dunfermline Figure 3.8 Recommended Car Club Locations in Dunfermline Figure 3.9 Car Club Demand by Smarter TravelStyle in Stirling Figure 3.10 Figure 3.11 Travel to Work Percentage who do not Travel to Work by Car in Stirling Scottish ndex of Multiple Deprivation Access to Services Domain in Stirling Figure 3.12 Recommended Car Club Locations in Stirling Figure 3.13 Figure 3.14 Figure 3.15 Car Club Demand by Smarter TravelStyle in the Clyde Valey (Central) Travel to Work Percentage who do not Travel to Work by Car in the Clyde Valley (Central) Scottish ndex of Multiple Deprivation Access to Services Domain in the Clyde Valley (Central) Figure 3.16 Recommended Car Club Locations in The Clyde Valley (Central). 41 Figure 3.17 Figure 3.18 Car Club Demand by Smarter TravelStyle in the Clyde Valey (East) Travel to Work Percentage who do not Travel to Work by Car in the Clyde Valley (East)

5 Figure 3.19 Scottish ndex of Multiple Deprivation Access to Services Domain in the Clyde Valley (East) Figure 3.20 Recommended Car Club Locations in The Clyde Valley (East) Figure 3.21 Figure 3.22 Figure 3.23 Car Club Demand by Smarter TravelStyle in the Clyde Valey (West) Travel to Work Percentage who do not Travel to Work by Car in the Clyde Valley (West) Scottish ndex of Multiple Deprivation Access to Services Domain in the Clyde Valley (West) Figure 3.24 Recommended Car Club Locations in The Clyde Valley (West) TABLES Table 0.1 Table 0.2 Car Club Potential - Demand Drivers... ii Ranking of Locations by Potential Car Club Demand... iv Table 2.1 Potential for Car Clubs in Cities in Rank Order Table 2.2 Potential for Car Clubs in Large Urban Areas in Rank Order Table 2.3 Potential for Car Clubs in Medium Urban Areas in Rank Order Table 2.4 Potential for Car Clubs in Small Urban Areas in Rank Order Contents

6

7 Executive Summary Review of current situation 1. Car clubs have developed in the UK over the last ten years, after being launched in Edinburgh and London in UK car club membership is presently just over 160,000 with 3,000 car club cars. 2. Car club provision varies across the UK, with a high proportion of car club members and cars in London. Compared to many other parts of the UK, car club provision in Edinburgh and Glasgow is relatively high with 100 cars in Edinburgh and 20 cars in Glasgow (with expansion of the network planned). Outside of Edinburgh and Glasgow, car club provision in Scotland is limited to a small number of community car clubs. This study is designed to explore the locations where demand for car clubs is likely to be greatest. Analysis of potential markets 3. We have developed a methodology to assess, across the country, the potential for car clubs in urban areas. Urban areas are the focus for the study as they offer a suitable density of population which is typically required for a successful car club operation. 4. The methodology uses a combination of sources to assess car club potential in urban areas by population size. Urban areas are categorised as: Cities more than 125,000 people; Large Urban Areas - 50,000 to 125,000 people; Medium Urban Areas - 25,000 to 50,000 people; and Small Urban Area 10,000 to 25,000 people. 5. We have selected data which represents key influences on the demand for car clubs and analysed this data to determine relative car club potential of urban areas by population size band. We have assessed each location for the factors detailed in table The influence of each factor on the assessment varies, with journey to work mode share and population having the greatest influence on the potential for car clubs and number of businesses having the least influence. 7. Within each urban area size band we have ranked locations from greatest car club potential to least car club potential. The map in figure 0.1 presents a visual summary of our car club potential ranking. i

8 Least important Most important Report TABLE 0.1 CAR CLUB POTENTAL - DEMAND DRVERS Factor Description Car club demand driver Dataset Public transport usage (Journey to Work) Share of workers travelling to work by public transport, walking and cycling High share of travel to work by public transport, walking and cycling Scottish Census 2001 Population and population density Urban area population and density High population and high population density General Register Office for Scotland Mid-Year Estimates for Urban Areas 2008 Car ownership Household car ownership One or more cars in household Scottish Census 2001 Accessibility to local services Measure of how accessible local services are by public transport and car Good accessibility to local services by public transport Scottish ndex of Multiple Deprivation 2009 Smarter TravelStyle Demographic data including attitudes to sustainable travel Demographic profile receptive to car clubs Smarter TravelStyle 1 population segmentation Demographics Qualifications, ncome and frequency of using a car High levels of qualifications, higher income, low car usage Scottish Household Survey (2005/6 2008/9) Business locations How many businesses are located in each urban area High volume of businesses Comprehensive Business Databases 1 Smarter TravelStyle is a geo-demographic profiling tool developed by Steer Davies Gleave. t classifies residential populations into groups based on their demographics and travel behaviour. ii

9 FGURE 0.1 RANKNG OF CAR CLUB POTENTAL BY LOCATON SZE iii

10 8. The table which follows summarises, for each urban area size band, the top locations based on our analysis and the key demand drivers which influence the strength of potential car club demand. The number of locations in each size band is shown in brackets. TABLE 0.2 Settlement size RANKNG OF LOCATONS BY POTENTAL CAR CLUB DEMAND Ranking Urban Area Key demand factors Cities (4) 1 Edinburgh High non-car travel to work share, very accessible local services, demographics very receptive to car clubs 2 Aberdeen High car ownership, high levels of qualifications, high incomes Large Urban Area (10) 1 Dunfermline High non-car travel to work share, high car ownership, good access to local services 2 Hamilton Good access to local services, high population density, high non-car travel to work share 3 East Kilbride High population, high car ownership Medium Urban Area (13) 1 Stirling High non-car travel to work share, good access to local services, high levels of qualifications 2 Dalkeith High population density, demographics very receptive to car clubs, high car ownership 3 Kirkintilloch Demographics very receptive to car clubs, high levels of qualifications, high incomes Small Urban Area (30) 1 Penicuik Good population density, demographics very receptive to car clubs 2 Stonehaven High car ownership, demographics very receptive to car clubs 3 nverurie High car ownership, good access to local services iv

11 Location of new bays 1.1 For a selected number of locations, as requested by Carplus, we have assessed appropriate locations for car club cars based on analysis of potential demand across each urban area. This demand has been assessed by mapping and analysing the following criteria at a detailed geographic level: Demographics and population density; Access to local services; and Travel to work mode. Dundee 9. n Dundee the following clusters offer the greatest potential for car clubs: Dundee City Centre (with good underlying demographic characteristics, low travel to work by car and good access to local services); To the north of the city, around Downfield (good underlying demographic characteristics and low travel to work by car); and between Ballumbie and the A90 (good underlying demographic characteristics and low travel to work by car). Dunfermline 10. n Dunfermline the following clusters offer the greatest potential for car clubs: Dunfermline town centre (scores well on all three criteria); East of the town centre around Pitreavie Castle (good underlying demographic characteristics and low travel to work by car); and nverkeithing (scores well on all three criteria). Stirling 11. n Stirling the following clusters offer the greatest potential for car clubs: Stirling City Centre (scores well on all three criteria); University of Stirling and Bridge of Allan (scores well on all three criteria); and Saint Ninians (good underlying demographic characteristics and low travel to work by car). Clyde Valley 12. Across the Clyde Valley the following clusters offer the greatest potential for car clubs (due to the size of the Clyde Valley, our analysis is split into three areas): Clyde Valley (Central) Glasgow City and the West End (scores well on all three criteria); Crosshill and Mount Florida (scores well on all three criteria); Bishopbriggs (good underlying demographic characteristics and good access to local services); Milngavie and Bearsden (low travel to work by car in parts and good access to local services); and Between Paisley and Glasgow Airport (low travel to work by car and good access to local services). v

12 Clyde Valley (East) Hamilton (scores well on all three criteria); Motherwell and Bellshill (scores well on all three criteria. albeit only in the south for good access to local services); Coatbridge and Airdrie (scores well on all three criteria); Wishaw (low travel to work by car and good access to local services); and Cumbernauld (good underlying demographic characteristics and low travel to work by car). Clyde Valley (West) Greenock (good underlying demographic characteristics and low travel to work by car); Bardrainney (good underlying demographic characteristics and good access to local services); Dumbarton (good underlying demographic characteristics, good access to local services and low travel to work by car in the north); and Balloch and Alexandria (low travel to work by car and good access to local services). Conclusions 13. This study takes into account a range of quantitative data sources and ranks locations based on their potential car club demand within four population size bands. The use of population size bands allows the comparison of locations of similar size, however it is not recommended to compare the car club potential of locations across different size bands. For example demand for car clubs in a small city may be stronger than a small urban area, despite a lower ranking. 14. Taking forward the findings of this study it will be important to also consider a more qualitative assessment of identified locations, such as: Political buy-in 15. Experience shows that political support from local authority officers, members and community groups (in more rural areas) are invaluable in driving forward car club scheme development and implementation. Existing car club networks 16. Existing car club networks, either in the location being considered, or in nearby locations can provide a catalyst to promote further car club demand and economies of scale both for car club operators and local authorities. Local council car club usage 17. Strongly promoting car club usage for local authority business can help to ensure a good level of initial usage, while residential demand develops. mplementation as part of a wider strategy 18. mplementation of car clubs as part of a wider strategy, such as implementation of a controlled parking zone, can provide a potential trigger for residents to consider their current car ownership and use. vi

13 East of England East Midlands London North East North West Scotland South East South West Wales West Midlands Yorkshire and The Humber Cars per 10,000 population Report 1 Review of current situation Car clubs in the UK 1.1 Trials of the first car clubs started as early as the 1970s in Central Europe, becoming more popular during the 1990s. Since then, they have extended across Europe with the first UK car clubs established in London and Edinburgh in Today there are a range of commercial and community car clubs spread across the UK with over 160,000 car club members and over 3,000 car club vehicles. 1.3 To illustrate the variation in the provision of car clubs across the country we have collated the number of car club cars for each region in the UK and compared this to the resident population of urban areas which have a car club presence 2. n Scotland, the population of Glasgow and Edinburgh and small locations home to community car clubs are included, but other areas without car club provision are excluded. 1.4 Figure 1.1 below compares car club cars per 10,000 population. The graph shows the difference in car club provision between London and the rest of the country. Population data for London includes all London Boroughs, although some boroughs have more limited car club provision. Some London Boroughs, such as the nner London Boroughs of slington, Camden and Kensington and Chelsea, have a much higher provision of car club cars than the average shown in the graph. 1.5 t is also interesting to note that car club provision in urban Scotland is comparable to East of England, South East and South West. FGURE 1.1 CURRENT CAR CLUB CARS PER 10,000 POPULATON Cars per 10,000 population (Urban areas with car club provision) Source: Carplus data March 2011, Urban Area Population Estimates (ONS/Scottish Executive) 2 For example the population for the North East only includes Newcastle upon Tyne, Prudhoe and Durham where there is current car club provision. 1

14 1.6 Figure 1.2 displays the distribution of car club locations across the UK. The map illustrates the concentration of car club cars in London and also highlights the lack of car club cars in the East Midlands. FGURE 1.2 GEOGRAPHCAL LOCATON OF CAR CLUBS N GREAT BRTAN nternational case studies 1.7 Car clubs have spread across the western world with car clubs now present in most western European countries, the US, Canada, Brazil, srael, Singapore, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. 1.8 Predominantly, car club operators have focused their initial development of car club networks in large urban conurbations. Examples of successful car club operators outside of the UK include Greenwheels and GoGet. Greenwheels 1.9 Greenwheels started in Rotterdam in 1995 with cars parked off-street. Currently the company operates car clubs in 80 cities across the Netherlands and 20 in Germany When planning new locations, at least five cars are initially allocated for a settlement, with further cars added as demand requires. n the Netherlands Greenwheels have found almost all locations to be successful, with cars typically only moved for practical reasons, such as vandalism When planning car club bays in new cities in the Netherlands, working with local authorities is important, as in the UK. With complex coalition politics the key to 2

15 successful car club implementation is support within the local authority in terms of political buy-in from supportive politicians Car club membership is mixed between residential and business members, although residential members are in the majority. Business users tend to book car club cars for longer periods. The profile of members is skewed towards middle income, educated professionals. Those with lower incomes have a tendency to place a high status on car ownership. Similarly, business members are of a similar professional profile with members typically in professional jobs such as architects and designers Maintenance is managed on a regional basis with teams servicing cars within their areas. This process is similar in both the Netherlands and Germany Car clubs are more established in Germany than in many European countries with the first car clubs starting in n Germany traffic laws do not allow for onstreet car club bays, this means all car club bays are off-street and therefore less visible. There are now reportedly over 60 car club operators in the country. These factors have led to slower growth in membership than in the Netherlands. nterestingly, the potential for cars clubs forecast by a number of national studies in Germany has never been achieved. GoGet 1.15 GoGet is operated by CarShare Australia and was formed in t is Australia's first professional car sharing service. Currently GoGet operates 80% of the car club market in Australia. GoGet operates in Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney When setting up car bays, the regulatory environment is important, with Australia being very similar to the UK. GoGet has found that the regulatory environment plays a key role in the success of Car Club development. They have found that tenders in Australia can be restrictive and can actually limit growth, rather than promote car club membership The approach in Australia to developing car club provision tends to depend on the political views of the local authorities. Where there is a tension between parking revenue and car club bays there is likely to be a tendering process. Where political views are more joined up, a tendering process is less likely GoGet have established successful close working relationships with the five councils in the Sydney area. North Sydney Council has been particularly proactive, offering free on-street spaces to operators. There are parallels between London and Sydney in terms of limitations on roadside parking The growth in car club members can be compared between Sydney and Melbourne. n Sydney, where there are no tenders, there has been around a 100% growth in members each year from n Melbourne, where car clubs are tendered, membership growth has only been around 20-30% per year over the same period Currently in the City of Sydney there is a cap in the maximum number of bays over the next 4 years of 1,000. Membership penetration rates in the best performing parts of Sydney are around 3.5% of the population, which has been assessed to be some way short of maximum penetration. GoGet estimates a potential market for 2,000 cars. 3

16 1.21 n terms of the locations, GoGet believe that successful locations have four things in common: A mixture of business and residential use; High profile main street locations with good visibility (which also promotes safety); Close proximity or next to public transport; and Close or next to other community infrastructure, i.e. town hall buildings, libraries etc. Business Membership 1.22 Business members make up about 10% of members but make up around a third of trips. Key business users are in the creative industries, such as film production and the media. Typically business car club usage replaces a taxi trip. Car Density 1.23 n terms of network density GoGet have found that increasing the density of cars from every 500m to every 250m has reduced the media touchpoints 3 required from an individual thinking of joining a car club to actually joining a car club. Car clubs in Scotland 1.24 n Scotland, car club locations are focused in Edinburgh and Glasgow, with community car club provision in more rural areas. Although these main cities are not the focus of this study, this section of the report briefly considers current car club provision in each city and the potential for expansion of car club provision based on the demographic profile of residential population. Ward level analysis of Edinburgh and Glasgow 1.25 Edinburgh and Glasgow currently have the most developed car club networks in Scotland. There are currently 102 car club cars in Edinburgh with firm plans for further expansion of 8 cars. n Glasgow, where the network was established more recently there are currently 20 car club cars with firm plans for a further 11 cars The maps which follow in Figures 1.4 and 1.6 show the number of car club cars per head of population in Edinburgh and Glasgow. This analysis highlights those locations which are well served by car clubs and also those locations where car club provision is lower. Note, for the purpose of this analysis, proposed new bays in both cities are assumed to single bays (home to one car) The maps of car club provision are accompanied by maps in Figures 1.5 and 1.7 which illustrate the underlying demographics of the cities using Smarter TravelStyle Smarter TravelStyle is a geo-demographic profiling and targeting system which we have developed in-house. t is based on the fusion of a commercial geodemographic system (MOSAC) and travel behaviour data. t segments the population according to a combination of travel behaviour and lifestyle variables. Being based at an individual postcode level, it allows a fine geographical segmentation of the population. Figure 1.3 shows how each group engages in 3 Media touchpoint - when an individual has contact with the car club concept or brand, e.g. seeing a poster, reading a leaflet or talking to a friend who has used a car club. 4

17 Smarter Choices programmes. n this study 4 we are using this measure as a proxy for the likelihood of individuals to become a car club member. FGURE 1.3 SMARTER TRAVELSTYLE PARTCPATON N SMARTER CHOCES PROGRAMMES Edinburgh 1.29 n Edinburgh, car club provision is concentrated on the most central parts of the city with a less dense network spreading out to the coast in Leith, Granton and Portobello. This can be seen in figure There are gaps in the car club network slightly further out to the north west and south west with demographics which suggest a good potential for car club membership. This is illustrates in figure 1.5. Locations with a good potential for car clubs, based on their demographic profile include: Craigleith and Davidsons Main, with a high proportion of Affluent Professionals; and Craiglockhart and Napier University Campuses. Glasgow 1.31 Car clubs were launched on-street in Glasgow in October The network focuses on the City Centre and Glasgow s West End. Further extensions are currently being planned. The map in figure 1.6 shows current car club coverage is limited outside of the city centre Figure 1.7 show the population profile of Glasgow using Smarter TravelStyle. The population profile suggests that the following locations are potential target locations for an expansion of the car club network: The West End and Partick, with concentrations of Affluent Professionals and Family Focus; and Pollokshields, with clusters of Affluent Professionals and Young Minded. 4 n the absence of information about the profile of car club members in Scotland from car club operators. 5

18 FGURE 1.4 EDNBURGH CAR CLUB CARS PER 10,000 POPULATON FGURE 1.5 EDNBURGH SMARTER TRAVELSTYLE POPULATON PROFLE 6

19 Report FGURE 1.6 GLASGOW CAR CLUB CARS PER 10,000 POPULATON FGURE 1.7 GLASGOW SMARTER TRAVELSTYLE POPULATON PROFLE 7

20

21 2 Analysis of potential markets Methodology 2.1 To provide an assessment of the market potential for car clubs across the country we have undertaken a broad analysis of settlements to provide a ranking of the underlying potential for car club membership. 2.2 We have used the Scottish Urban Rural Classification as the basis for our selection of settlements. The Urban Rural Classification defines urban areas by population size. Using this data we have categorised urban areas in Scotland with a population of more than 10,000 into the following size bands: Cities more than 125,000 people; Large Urban Areas - 50,000 to 125,000 people; Medium Urban Areas - 25,000 to 50,000 people; and Small Urban Area 10,000 to 25,000 people. 2.3 We have assessed each location for the following factors: Public transport usage, walking and cycling (Journey to Work); Population and population density; Car ownership; Accessibility to local services; Smarter TravelStyle; Scottish Household Survey; and Business locations. 2.4 These factors are combined to provide a broad assessment of the potential for car clubs in each location. Data sources 2.5 The paragraphs below detail the relevance of each dataset for assessing the potential for car clubs and the source of the data. Public transport usage, walking and cycling (Journey to Work) 2.6 There is a strong link between car club membership and public transport, walking and cycling. People who make trips by public transport, on foot or by bicycle are more likely to be car club members than people who make the majority of their trips by car. Also, people who join car clubs tend to increase their use of public transport, walk more and cycle more. Therefore we have considered that there is more potential for car club membership in locations with higher public transport use and where more people walk and cycle. Travel to work data has been analysed from the 2001 Census; the most comprehensive data source available whilst data from the 2011 Census is being processed. Population and population density 2.7 Population and population density are both important for the potential for car clubs. High densities of population allow a larger market for any particular car 9

22 club car. High population density also typically results in other pressures which benefit car clubs, such as restricted parking availability, lower than average car ownership and good access to local services. Population data is sourced from the General Register Office for Scotland 2008 Mid-Year estimates for urban areas. Car ownership 2.8 Car ownership data shows the proportion of households that have no cars, one, two, three, four or more cars. Low levels of car ownership are typically found in locations with good public transport, and also poorer areas. Car clubs can both provide access to cars for households which don t have a car, but also help households with two or more cars to reduce their car ownership by providing access to a car without the need to own a second vehicle. n very large cities, such as London there is more potential for car clubs in locations with a high proportion of households without a car and/or an above average proportion of households with two or more cars. 2.9 Outside of large cities, in locations where car ownership is high, the situation is different. Outside of large city centres, a low level of car ownership is generally linked to lower incomes. ndividuals with low incomes do not currently have a high propensity to join car clubs. This means that, outside of large cities, we suggest that car clubs are more likely to be used by current car owners, either after selling a little used first car, or to replace a second car. For this analysis we have ranked locations based on the proportion of households which have access to one or more cars. Car ownership data is sourced from the 2001 Census. Accessibility to local services 2.10 People who have good access to local services have less need to drive, therefore car clubs are potentially an attractive option, providing access to a car, but reducing the need to own a car. The 2009 Scottish ndex of Multiple Deprivation includes a sub domain which assesses access to services on a detailed geographic level. This sub domain includes analysis of how accessible each Super Output area in Scotland is to a GP, post office and shopping facilities. Our analysis focuses on trips by public transport and walking. Super Output Areas are ranked from the most accessible in the country to the least accessible. Smarter TravelStyle 2.11 Research shows that the propensity of people to join a car club varies between different demographic groups. To provide an assessment of how different demographic groups are represented in each urban area we have used our Smarter TravelStyle geodemographic segmentation. The classification is based on a combination of actual data from behaviour change projects and MOSAC. t divides the population into nine Smarter TravelStyle segments based on their response to smarter choices interventions. This analysis summarises for each urban area the relative propensity to be receptive to travel behaviour change interventions, which we are using as a proxy for propensity to join a car club. 10

23 Scottish Household Survey Report 2.12 The Scottish Household Survey provides a wealth of data about the characteristics, attitudes and behaviour of Scottish residents. The survey is carried out on an annual basis with 2008/9 data the most recent year reported. Due to small sample sizes and data availability our analysis has been undertaken at local council level, with the most recent four years data combined to provide a good sample size. We have selected the following variables to include in our analysis: Qualifications; ncome; and Frequency of car use These variables have been chosen due to their particular relevance for car club demand. Higher levels of qualifications were found to be a key driver for car club demand in a study undertaken by the Economist ntelligence Unit for Zipcar 5. Research we have undertaken for London Boroughs has shown that people with above average income have a higher propensity to become car club members than people with a below average income. This research also showed a link between frequency of car use and propensity of becoming a car club member, with people who use a car less than average more likely to become a car club member. Note - this data is available by local council area; therefore the data used for two locations within the same local council area (e.g. Dunfermline and Kirkcaldy) is the same. Business locations 2.14 Car clubs provide the opportunity for businesses to have access to a car (or van) on an hourly or daily basis, without the need for a pool car or for employees to use their own cars. To provide an assessment of potential business demand by urban areas we have collated data on the number of businesses in each location and the number of employees. This data is from comprehensive business databases and also the Annual Business nquiry from the Office for National Statistics. 5 Zipcar news release (3 rd June 2009) Zipcar Announces First Comprehensive Global Car-Sharing Study available at 11

24 Ranking of locations by settlement size 2.15 The range of factors which have been included in the tables in the next section below provide a broad assessment of the potential for car clubs in each location considering the following data, in order of importance: Journey to work; Population; Car ownership; Accessibility; Smarter TravelStyle; Demographics (Scottish Household Survey); and Businesses. Highest importance Lowest importance 2.16 Each of these factors are weighted to reflect the different importance of each factor. For example, we have assessed that demographic data is more important in shaping the market potential than, for example, the number of businesses. The section covering Data Sources earlier in this chapter details the relevance of each dataset for assessing the potential for car clubs Each location is assessed based on each individual factor. A weighted rank, based on all factors indicates the scale of potential demand for car clubs, for example: Weighted Rank Car club potential 1 Highest potential Lowest potential 2.18 Where two locations are ranked at the same level, e.g. two location have the same levels of car ownership, they receive the same rank The map on the following page shows a summary of the analysis; the remainder of this chapter details the car club potential ranking for each location size band. 12

25 FGURE 2.1 RANKNG OF CAR CLUB POTENTAL BY LOCATON SZE 13

26 Cities 2.20 Table 2.1 shows that, based on the factors considered, Edinburgh has the highest potential demand for car clubs when compared to the other Scottish cities of Aberdeen, Glasgow and Dundee. Edinburgh ranks highest for the following factors: Highest share of its population who travel to work by public transport, walking or cycling; More accessible public services than the other cities; and Population demographics types which are amenable to car club use Aberdeen ranks second out of the four Scottish cities compared. Aberdeen has the largest share of population who own cars, compared to the other four cities and scores well based on the demographics considered from the Scottish Household survey (a well qualified population with high income levels). Aberdeen does not rank so highly when examining the journey to work data, with the least number of people travelling to work by non car modes Glasgow is ranked third out of the four cities due to its lower levels of car ownership and lower levels of access to services. n terms of market potential for car clubs, Dundee was ranked last, largely due to lower population levels, densities and demographics (including fewer people with degrees and lower levels of income). Despite this ranking, due to the size of the conurbation potential car club, demand in Dundee is likely to be greater than in some smaller conurbations. TABLE 2.1 POTENTAL FOR CAR CLUBS N CTES N RANK ORDER Weighted Rank City Journey to work Population Car ownership Accessibility Smarter Demographics Businesses TravelStyle 1 Edinburgh Aberdeen Glasgow Dundee

27 Large Urban Areas Report 2.23 Table 2.2 shows that the potential for car clubs in Large Urban Areas. There are ten urban areas in Scotland with populations of between 50,000 and 125, The location with the highest ranking is Dunfermline in Fife. Dunfermline scores well across a broad range of criteria including: Low car travel to work mode share; High levels of car ownership; and Good accessibility to local services Dunfermline s low demographic ranking is based on data from the Scottish Household Survey for the Fife Council area. This includes five other urban areas, which has resulted in a less positive ranking, compared to the good profile seen using the Smarter TravelStyle data, which is just based on Dunfermline itself Hamilton and East Kilbride (both south east of Glasgow) rank second and third. Hamilton has particularly good access to local services, population volumes and population density, although the Smarter TravelStyle population profile is less receptive to smarter travel type initiatives. East Kilbride has average rankings across most criteria, with good volumes of population, high population density and high levels of car ownership Based on our assessment, large urban areas where car clubs are likely to be more difficult to establish include Kirkcaldy, Cumbernauld and Greenock. TABLE 2.2 POTENTAL FOR CAR CLUBS N LARGE URBAN AREAS N RANK ORDER Weighted Rank Location Journey to work Population Car ownership Accessibility Smarter TravelStyle Demographics Businesses 1 Dunfermline Hamilton East Kilbride Ayr Falkirk nverness Livingston Greenock Cumbernauld Kirkcaldy

28 Medium Urban Areas 2.29 Table 2.3 shows the potential for car clubs across Medium Urban Areas. There are 13 Medium Urban areas in Scotland with populations of between 25,000 and 50,000 people The top three locations with the greatest potential for car clubs, based on the criteria we have used, are Stirling, Dalkeith (south east of Edinburgh) and Kirkintilloch (north east of Glasgow). Stirling in particular is ranked highly on all characteristics, with the exception of car ownership, which is low (in this particular case, this may not be such an issue, as the population of Stirling is reasonably wealthy and may chose not to own a car). Dalkeith scores highly on most measures, except journey to work mode share (bus mode share is very low, although rail mode share is high, reflecting commuting into Edinburgh). Kirkintilloch scores well on most factors except access to local services and journey to work mode share (public transport is very low, but walking and cycling is high) At the bottom of the table, locations where car clubs are likely to be more difficult to establish, based on the criteria we have considered, include Alloa in the Central Lowlands, Buckhaven in Fife and Ardrossan in North Ayrshire. Note that Glenrothes is classified as low potential in terms of demographics, based on the profile of all locations in Fife. Smarter TravelStyle analysis shows indicates that Glenrothes has a population which is likely to be receptive to car clubs. TABLE 2.3 POTENTAL FOR CAR CLUBS N MEDUM URBAN AREAS N RANK ORDER Weighted Rank Location Journey to work Population Car ownership Accessibility Smarter TravelStyle Demographics Businesses 1 Stirling Dalkeith Kirkintilloch Perth Glenrothes Bonnybridge Kilmarnock rvine Dumbarton Dumfries Ardrossan Buckhaven Alloa

29 Small Urban Areas Report 2.32 Table 2.4 shows the potential for car clubs across Small Urban Areas. There are 30 Small Urban areas in Scotland with a population of between 10,000 and 25,000 people. The table continues on the following page The top three locations are Penicuik (to the south of Edinburgh), Stonehaven and nverurie (both close to Aberdeen). Each of these three locations ranks highly in two or more of the criteria car ownership, accessibility to local services and Smarter TravelStyle Overall there is a less clear pattern within the rankings for smaller locations, with locations scoring very well on some factors, but poorly on others. For example, Carnoustie to the east of Dundee scores well based on the Smarter TravelStyle profile of the population but poorly on the population density and number of businesses. TABLE 2.4 POTENTAL FOR CAR CLUBS N SMALL URBAN AREAS N RANK ORDER Weighted Rank Location Journey to work Population Car ownership Accessibility Smarter TravelStyle Demographics Businesses 1 Penicuik Stonehaven nverurie Carnoustie St Andrews Fraserburgh Broxburn Bathgate Tranent Forfar Linlithgow Montrose Armadale Carluke Helensburgh Largs Erskine

30 Weighted Rank Location Journey to work Population Car ownership Accessibility Smarter TravelStyle Demographics Businesses 18 Peterhead Troon Whitburn Kilwinning Arbroath Larkhall Cowdenbeath Elgin Galashiels Westhill Bo'ness Hawick Stranraer

31 3 Location of new bays Methodology 3.1 The analysis undertaken in Chapter 2 identifies locations with greatest potential for car clubs. n an individual location, demand for car clubs will vary across the urban area, based on a number of factors such as population density and demographics. 3.2 n discussion with Carplus we have identified a shortlist of locations to consider potential car club demand across the urban area and demonstrate a methodology to determine where car club demand is likely to be strongest within a particular urban area. The locations agreed to consider in more detail are: Dundee; Dunfermline; Stirling; and Clyde Valley. 3.3 For each of these locations we have considered a number of factors which are key drivers of demand for car clubs to select areas for potential car club bays within the urban areas. The factors we have considered are: Smarter TravelStyle; Travel to work (% of households who do not travel to work by car); and Access to local services. 3.4 We have mapped each of these factors on a detailed geographic level quantitatively. A qualitative approach has then been used to identify hotspots or clusters of expected demand for car clubs across each location. These hotspots or clusters are identified for each factor. 3.5 These three factors are then assessed together to identify potential car club location clusters in locations where two or more factors show a high potential car club demand. Data sources 3.6 The paragraphs below describe the use of these data sources in more detail. Smarter TravelStyle 3.7 Smarter TravelStyle classifies residential populations based on their propensity to respond to Smarter Travel measures. The classification is based on a detailed individual residential postcode level. We have combined this information with population data to weight the residential population to reflect the likely demand for car clubs. 3.8 This weighting has the effect of decreasing the population of an area with low expected demand for car clubs and increasing the population of an area with a high expected demand for car clubs. The resulting analysis is plotted on a map, which is used to identify hotspot or clusters of potential high car club demand. 19

32 Travel to work (% of households who do not travel to work by car) 3.9 There is a strong link between car club membership and public transport, walking and cycling. People who make trips by public transport, on foot or by bicycle are more likely to be car club members than people who make the majority of their trips by car We have mapped at a detailed level the proportion of journeys to work which are made by non-car modes. Using this mapping we have identified areas which have a high proportion of people who travel to work by non-car modes, such as bus, train, by foot and by bicycle. Access to local services 3.11 The 2009 Scottish ndex of Multiple Deprivation includes a sub domain which assesses access to services on a detailed geographic level. This sub domain includes analysis of how accessible each Super Output area in Scotland is to a GP, post office and shopping facilities. Super Output Areas are ranked from the most accessible in the country to the least accessible Mapping the data at a detailed geographic level allows the identification of clusters with good access to local services. n these locations there is a lesser need to use a car every day, and hence own a car. The attractiveness of car clubs in these clusters is greater than in locations where a car is required for access to local services. 20

33 Dundee Smarter TravelStyle 3.13 Considering demand by Smarter TravelStyle, key areas within Dundee that show good car club potential are the city centre (1), the area between the A40 (Forfar Road) and the B978 (Kelas Road) including Ballumbie (2), Downfield (3), and Douglas and Angus (4) Less concentrated areas of higher demand populations can be seen near Boughty Ferry (5) east of the city, and the area west of Ninewells Hospital (6). Travel to work (% of households who do not travel to work by car) 3.15 When the method of travel to work is considered, those already using alternatives to the car are concentrated around the city centre, and again out along the A923 and Dens Road (1). There are also concentrations of non-car users to the west of the city centre, near Denhead of Grey and Lochlea (2), Downfield (3) and around the B961 between Ballumbie and Douglas and Angus (4). Access to local services 3.16 The Scottish ndex of Multiple Deprivation highlights that those least deprived in terms of access to services are clustered in the city centre and north east along Albert Street with a cluster at Lochlea (1), as well as the north of Strathmartine Road (2) and Boughty Ferry (3). Overall 3.17 Considering these attributes, the greatest potential for car clubs are around the City Centre extending out approximately as far as Strathmore Avenue (1), two areas in the north of the city, around Downfield (2) and between Ballumbie and the A90 (3). Boughty Ferry also provides a further area where potential may exist (4). 21

34

35 FGURE 3.1 CAR CLUB DEMAND BY SMARTER TRAVELSTYLE N DUNDEE 23

36 FGURE 3.2 TRAVEL TO WORK PERCENTAGE WHO DO NOT TRAVEL TO WORK BY CAR N DUNDEE 24

37 FGURE 3.3 SCOTTSH NDEX OF MULTPLE DEPRVATON - ACCESS TO SERVCES DOMAN N DUNDEE 25

38 FGURE 3.4 RECOMMENDED CAR CLUB LOCATONS N DUNDEE 26

39 Dunfermline Smarter TravelStyle 3.18 When car club demand based on Smarter TravelStyle is considered, areas with likely higher levels of car club demand include Pitreavie Castle (1) and Wellwood (2). Outside the town, Dalgety Bay (3) also shows high potential Areas with slightly lower concentrations of households where car clubs are likely to have potential are around Rosyth rail station (4) and nverkeithing (5). Travel to work (% of households who do not travel to work by car) 3.20 When the percentage of those travelling to work by alternative methods to the private car are considered, Dunfermline Town Centre (1), the area bordered by the B916, Woodmill Road, Blacklaw Road and Linburn Road (2) and nverkeithing (3) have lower levels of car use for travel to work, thus higher potential for car clubs. Access to local services 3.21 When the Scottish ndex of Multiple Deprivation is considered, Dunfermline town centre (1), nverkeithing (2) and Dalgety Bay (3) are all locations with good access to local services. n particular the population directly south of Dunfermline town centre is within the 5% least deprived in Scotland in terms of access to local services. Overall 3.22 Considering these three indicators together, suggested locations for car club bays include Dunfermline town centre (1) and the area to the east of the town centre, Pitreavie Castle (2). nverkeithing (3) also shows potential in respect to mode of travel to work and index of multiple deprivation, while Dalgety Bay (4) has good potential demand based on Smarter TravelStyle and access to local services. 27

40 FGURE 3.5 CAR CLUB DEMAND BY SMARTER TRAVELSTYLE N DUNFERMLNE 28

41 FGURE 3.6 TRAVEL TO WORK PERCENTAGE WHO DO NOT TRAVEL TO WORK BY CAR N DUNFERMLNE 29

42 FGURE 3.7 SCOTTSH NDEX OF MULTPLE DEPRVATON ACCESS TO SERVCES DOMAN N DUNFERMLNE 30

43 FGURE 3.8 RECOMMENDED CAR CLUB LOCATONS N DUNFERMLNE 31

44 Stirling Smarter TravelStyle 3.23 Car club demand, as indicated by Smarter TravelStyle and population density, highlights three locations in Stirling where car clubs would be expected to have the greatest potential. These include the city centre (1), Bridge of Allan and Stirling University in the north (2) and Bannockburn in the south of the city (3). Travel to work (% of households who do not travel to work by car) 3.24 When method of travel to work is considered, analysis indicates that many of the householders in Stirling who travel by an alternative mode to the private car for work live in the city centre and its surrounding area (1). Other areas include the University of Stirling (2) and Bridge of Allan (3). Access to local services 3.25 The Scottish ndex of Multiple Deprivation Access to Services domain indicates that the city centre (1), Bridge of Allan (2) and to a lesser extent Saint Ninians (3) have good access to local services, indicating a good potential for car clubs. Overall 3.26 Overall, the three areas which the analysis suggests have the greatest potential for car clubs are Stirling City Centre (1), the University of Stirling and Bridge of Allan (2) and Saint Ninians (3). 32

45 FGURE 3.9 CAR CLUB DEMAND BY SMARTER TRAVELSTYLE N STRLNG 33

46 FGURE 3.10 TRAVEL TO WORK PERCENTAGE WHO DO NOT TRAVEL TO WORK BY CAR N STRLNG 34

47 FGURE 3.11 SCOTTSH NDEX OF MULTPLE DEPRVATON ACCESS TO SERVCES DOMAN N STRLNG 35

48 FGURE 3.12 RECOMMENDED CAR CLUB LOCATONS N STRLNG 36

49 Clyde Valley (Central) Smarter TravelStyle 3.27 Considering Smarter TravelStyle analysis a number of clusters have been identified across the Greater Glasgow area. These include the West End of Glasgow (1), areas to the east of the city centre near Alexandra Parade (2), the towns of Bishopbriggs (3) and Kirkintilloch (4) in the north east, and areas within the south side of the city, particularly around Crosshill and Mount Florida (5). Within East Kilbride, St Leonards (6), in the north east of the town, shows potential. Travel to work (% of households who do not travel to work by car) 3.28 Considering method of travel to work, many of those in the city centre and those in the East End and West End of the city (1) travel to work using alternatives to the private car. Other areas where alternatives are used by a high proportion of households are around Rutherglen (2), Hillington East and Priesthill and Darnley stations (3), between Paisley town centre and Glasgow Airport (4), Dalmuir (5) and Kirkintilloch (6). Access to local services 3.29 Considering the Scottish ndex of Multiple Deprivation and access to services domain, a number of areas show potential for car clubs. These include the West End (1), an area around Carntyne, Alexandra Parade and Shettleston rail stations (2), Springburn and Bishopbriggs (3), Milngavie (4), Crosshill and Mount Florida (5), Thornliebank (6), Renfrew (7), Linwood and Johnstone (8) and in to the south of East Kilbride (9). Overall 3.30 Overall the areas where analysis shows car clubs have the greatest potential within the central Clyde Valley area are Glasgow City Centre and West End (1), to the east of the City Centre (2), around Mount Florida in the south side of the city (3), Bishopbriggs (4), Milngavie and Bearsden (5), the area between Paisley town centre and Glasgow Airport (6). 37

50 FGURE 3.1 CAR CLUB DEMAND BY SMARTER TRAVELSTYLE N THE CLYDE VALEY (CENTRAL) 38

51 FGURE 1.2 TRAVEL TO WORK PERCENTAGE WHO DO NOT TRAVEL TO WORK BY CAR N THE CLYDE VALLEY (CENTRAL) 39

52 FGURE 1.3 SCOTTSH NDEX OF MULTPLE DEPRVATON ACCESS TO SERVCES DOMAN N THE CLYDE VALLEY (CENTRAL) 40

53 FGURE 1.4 RECOMMENDED CAR CLUB LOCATONS N THE CLYDE VALLEY (CENTRAL) 41

54 Clyde Valley (East) Smarter TravelStyle 3.31 When potential demand is analysed using Smarter TravelStyle, areas where demand is likely to be higher for car clubs include Hamilton (1), Motherwell and Bellshill (2) Airdrie and Coatbridge (3), Cumbernauld (4) and Larkhall (5). Travel to work (% of households who do not travel to work by car) 3.32 When method of travel to work is considered, areas where there are lower levels of car use for commuting include Hamilton (1), Motherwell (2), Wishaw (3), Coatbridge (4), and Cumbernauld (5). Access to local services 3.33 The Scottish ndex of Multiple Deprivation Access to services domain, shows good access to local services in Blantyre (1), Hamilton (2), Motherwell (3), Wishaw (4), Bellshill (5), Coatbridge and Airdrie (6), Larkhall (7) and Carluke (8). These locations all show low levels of deprivation in respect to access to services and thus potential for car clubs. Overall 3.34 Considering all three data sources, there is potentially highest car club demand concentrated in Hamilton (1), Motherwell and Bellshill (2), Coatbridge and Airdrie (3), Wishaw (4) and Cumbernauld (5). 42

55 FGURE 1.5 CAR CLUB DEMAND BY SMARTER TRAVELSTYLE N THE CLYDE VALEY (EAST) 43

56 FGURE 1.6 TRAVEL TO WORK PERCENTAGE WHO DO NOT TRAVEL TO WORK BY CAR N THE CLYDE VALLEY (EAST) 44

57 FGURE 1.7 SCOTTSH NDEX OF MULTPLE DEPRVATON ACCESS TO SERVCES DOMAN N THE CLYDE VALLEY (EAST) 45

58 FGURE 1.8 RECOMMENDED CAR CLUB LOCATONS N THE CLYDE VALLEY (EAST) 46

59 Clyde Valley (West) Smarter TravelStyle 3.35 Considering car club demand by Smarter TravelStyle and population, areas where car clubs may have greater potential are Greenock (1), east of Port Glasgow (2), Dumbarton (3) and Bonhill (4). Travel to work (% of households who do not travel to work by car) 3.36 When method of travel to work is considered, areas where a lower proportion of residents travel by car include Greenock (1) Belsmyre in Dumbarton (2), Balloch (3) and Helensburgh (4). Access to local services 3.37 Considering the Scottish ndex of Multiple Deprivation access to services domain, much of the West of the Clyde Valley has poor access to local services. Areas where access to services is good include to the east of Port Glasgow at Bardrainney (1), Dumbarton (2) and Alexandria (3). Overall 3.38 Considering all three data sources, Greenock (1), Bardrainney (2), Dumbarton (3) and the area around Balloch and Alexandria (4) show the greatest potential for car clubs in the west part of the Clyde Valley. 47

60

61 FGURE 1.9 CAR CLUB DEMAND BY SMARTER TRAVELSTYLE N THE CLYDE VALEY (WEST) 49

62 FGURE 1.10 TRAVEL TO WORK PERCENTAGE WHO DO NOT TRAVEL TO WORK BY CAR N THE CLYDE VALLEY (WEST) 50

63 FGURE 1.11 SCOTTSH NDEX OF MULTPLE DEPRVATON ACCESS TO SERVCES DOMAN N THE CLYDE VALLEY (WEST) 51

64 FGURE 1.12 RECOMMENDED CAR CLUB LOCATONS N THE CLYDE VALLEY (WEST) 52

65 4 Conclusions ntroduction 4.1 The purpose of this study is to understand, across Scotland, locations where the potential for car clubs is likely to be greatest. The study has taken into account a range of data sources, based on data which previous research has shown to be of key importance when assessing potential car club demand. Methodology 4.2 The analysis in this study is largely based on quantitative data. While the majority of data used in our analysis has a strong link to car clubs demand (e.g. higher car club demand is generally associated with higher population densities), the use of some data sources is based on a degree of judgement and interpretation. Car ownership 4.3 Levels of car ownership can be seen as either a positive or negative influence on potential car club demand. For example, in city centres, low car ownership can mean that residents have chosen not to own a car for practical reasons (good public transport, limited parking). n such locations where low car ownership is thought to be a positive influence on potential car club demand this can be taken into account. Weighting of data sources 4.4 The weighting of each data source agreed with Carplus is based on our experience, UK and global evidence, but not specific evidence from Scotland. Location size bands 4.5 The methodology categorises urban areas by size band as a framework for the analysis. Ranking locations of a similar size allows a comparative analysis across locations of a similar size. t should be noted that for smaller cities the case for developing a car club may be stronger than in more rural areas. Therefore the direct comparison of the rankings of individual locations between size bands is not recommended. 4.6 The size of urban area is likely to influence the potential interest from commercial and community based car club operators. For example, a commercial operator is more likely to be interested in larger locations (cities and large urban areas), as these locations provide the potential for a reasonable sized car club network and the associated economies of scale this can bring, both in terms of maintenance, servicing and also marketing to potential users. 4.7 Smaller locations (medium urban areas and small urban areas) are likely to be of more interest to community based car club operators. Where these locations are close to existing commercial car club locations, there may also be some commercial interest, particularly where demand potential is shown to be high. 53

66 Qualitative factors to consider 4.8 There are a number of more qualitative factors which are not reflected in the methodology used in this report. The following qualitative factors should also be taken into account assessing the potential success of car clubs on a location by location basis: Political buy-in; Existing car club networks; Local Authority car club usage; and mplementation as part of a wider strategy. Political buy-in 4.9 Experience shows that political support is key in successful car club implementation. Political support can be in the form of both Local Authority officers and council members, who believe in the concept of car clubs. This joint support is particularly important in locations where car clubs are less well known, where a local champion (or champions) can drive forward scheme development and implementation n rural areas, the presence of a community group (preferably one which is already established) to drive forward the implementation of a car club is of particular importance to the success of car clubs. Existing car club networks 4.11 Developing a new car club network requires an investment in infrastructure both by the local authority (bays and signage) and by the car club operator (cars, maintenance and marketing). Where an existing car club network exists, expanding this network, whether in the same urban area, or an urban area nearby, provides a number of potential benefits. These include: A local population more likely to be aware of the concept of car clubs; Procedural benefits for the local council, for example if a process is already has in place for implementing car club bays; and Procedural benefits for the car club operator, for example efficiency savings extending car club servicing from an existing nearby location, rather than introducing new maintenance and servicing arrangements. Local council car club usage 4.12 When planning the introduction of a car club in a new location, a guaranteed level of usage can encourage interest in the location by car club operators. One way of ensuring a good level of initial usage, while residential demand develops, is to provide car club cars for local council usage. Provision of car club cars for local council use should be complemented by policies which encourage car club use, as well as walking and cycling, rather than use of pool cars or private cars with preferential mileage allowances. mplementation as part of a wider strategy 4.13 The implementation of car clubs can be incorporated into a wider strategy. For example as part of the introduction of a controlled parking zone, this provides an 54

67 option for local residents to reconsider their car ownership and use and provides an on-the-ground alternative to car ownership in the form of car clubs. 55

68

69 CONTROL SHEET Project/Proposal Name Document Title Scotland Car Club Market Analysis Report Client Contract/Project No. SDG Project/Proposal No SSUE HSTORY ssue No. Date Details 2 25/8/11 Final REVEW Originator Other Contributors Matthew Clark Judith Thomson, John Geelan, James Tippins, Lucy Hayward Review by: Print Tony Duckenfield Sign DSTRBUTON Client: Carplus Steer Davies Gleave: \\sdgworld.net\data\london\projects\223\7\25\01\outputs\reports\scotland Car Club Market Analysis report final docx Control Sheet