The area has a strong quality of place offer, particularly, though not exclusively, in the conurbation core.

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1 Place KEY FACTS The conurbation core is the key economic driver for Greater Manchester, hosting the main office, industrial, and retail markets within the conurbation The area has a strong quality of place offer, particularly, though not exclusively, in the conurbation core. Greater Manchester s town centres have declined in both office and retail terms over the last decade despite strong economic growth. Greater Manchester is home to extensive transport infrastructure, including Manchester Airport, Metrolink and an extensive rail and road network. The growth in demand for public transport has resulted in growing issues of overcrowding on the local rail and Metrolink systems. The development of the Metrolink network is a key feature of transport investment priorities in the next few years in Greater Manchester. Values in some localised property markets in Greater Manchester are amongst the lowest in the UK, suggesting that investors and occupiers are unwilling to look outside prime areas. There is a mismatch between housing supply and demand; and there are not enough houses in the places where people want to live. A limited supply of high-quality detached properties could deter and hinder the conurbation s ability to attract and retain high-end skills and occupations. Responding to the recession, dealing with the problems of town centre housing markets, meeting the need of additional housing and reducing the affordability gap are priorities for the housing market in Greater Manchester. There has been a significant decrease of over 45% in the number of new houses built across Greater Manchester during 2008/9. Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 112

2 11 ASSETS 11.1 The diversity of the Greater Manchester offer as a place to live and work is a crucial factor in attracting and retaining highly skilled people and businesses. Greater Manchester is the second most populous conurbation in the UK. It has a large and dynamic conurbation core, which is focused on the city centre (in both Manchester and Salford), but extends out to Salford Quays/Trafford Wharfside (including MediaCity), Trafford Park (including the Trafford Centre at its far edge), and the Corridor, which encompasses Europe s largest concentration of knowledge assets Whilst the conurbation core has been the focus of much of Greater Manchester s economic growth over the last decade, the conurbation includes a number of other key employment sites, including the town centres, and large sites such as Middlebrook (Bolton), Central Park (New East Manchester), Ashton Moss (Tameside), and Heywood and Kingsway (Rochdale) The main physical assets and the conurbation core are highlighted in the map overleaf. Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 113

3 Figure 8.2: Physical Assets in Greater Manchester Source: GMPTE, 2010 Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 114

4 12 PROPERTY MARKET 12.1 Within Greater Manchester there is a mix of high-density urban areas, suburbs, semi-rural and rural locations, but overwhelmingly the land use is urban. Green Belt covers a substantial part of the conurbation and has been effective in helping to focus development in the urban areas. PROPERTY MARKET 12.2 Over the past 35 years, Manchester s central property market has evolved from focusing on the piecemeal development of single buildings to major billion pound plus mixed-use schemes with significant office, residential and leisure / retail content. This has been achieved through the delivery of major public transport works, hastened (direct) connectivity to London, continued improvements to the quality of public spaces and the increased diversity of the central retail, leisure and residential offers 1. OFFICE MARKET 12.3 Greater Manchester s office markets have matured considerably over the last two decades particularly focused around the city centre and Salford Quays. In South Manchester the office market includes the Airport, Cheadle, Sale, Stockport and Old Trafford and in North Manchester the office market is centred around the town centres as well as out of centre alternatives such as Middlebrook and Central Park The total amount of built office stock amounts to around 50 million sq ft in Greater Manchester. Over half of this (26.3 million sq ft) is located in the conurbation core, 15.4 million sq. ft. in South Manchester and 8.3 million sq. ft. in North Manchester Within these sub-markets it is clear that whilst town centres have played some part in advancing the Greater Manchester economy, their overall contribution has been modest given the majority of gains delivered as a result of accelerated growth either within the conurbation core or on out-of-town/edgeof-town schemes located at key nodes around the M60 orbital motorway A recently published report from GVA Grimley 2 suggests that the office market showed strong signs of a rebound in the third quarter of 2010, with the city centre market leading the way, accounting for a third of all of the take-up in the quarter. However, the report also shows that the market was skewed by the Co-operative Group signing a deal for 328,000 sq ft of space at its new Miller Street base, where it is both landlord and tenant. Though successful out-oftown schemes have developed throughout the conurbation, the strongest, 1 Identification and Market Demand-led Assessment of Large Employment Sites within Greater Manchester 2 Regional Office Market Take-up Quarter GVA Grimley Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 115

5 most sustained, market activity has been focused to the south of the conurbation core and more specifically at a number of notable schemes and locations including Cheadle Royal Business Park, Salford Quays and Towers Business Park (Didsbury) as well as, outside of MCR at Birchwood Park (Warrington) and Daresbury Park (J11, M56). INDUSTRIAL MARKET 12.7 From an industrial market perspective, Greater Manchester benefits from being one of the country's largest conurbations as well as having strong connectivity as highlighted previously in this chapter. In addition, and though currently functioning significantly below capacity, the Manchester Ship Canal directly connects the conurbation to a major deep sea shipping port the only inland waterway of its type in the UK Manufacturing activity is dispersed throughout Greater Manchester, with an historic proliferation to the north, though the largest concentration of industrial space is in Trafford Park, which is particularly popular with firms from the manufacturing and engineering sectors. Many of the conurbation s major manufacturing employers, including Kellogg's and Procter & Gamble, have large manufacturing and distribution units on the park. In recent years, several large, purpose-built, schemes have been completed including a 330,000 sq ft warehouse for Kellogg's in 2003, a 257,000 sq ft unit for L'Oreal in 2004 and a 360,000 sq ft pre-let to Adidas which completed in early Away from Trafford Park and the nearby Metroplex Business Park, and out towards the M56 and Manchester Airport, key industrial locations include Sharston, Stanley Green and Roundthorn Industrial Estate although these tend to suffer from low quality 1960/70s buildings in fragmented ownerships In East Manchester, where despite the positive introduction of the M60 orbital motorway, a similar characteristic of tired units and low value uses tends to prevail. Larger scale, new build, development has been accommodated at Ashton Moss and in the medium to longer term, a number of sites within east Manchester, Tameside and Oldham are likely to become available Key warehousing locations are generally located to the north and west of the conurbation core. Of particular note, Heywood Distribution Park, Stakehill Industrial Estate, Chadderton Industrial Estate, Oldham Broadway and Kingsway Business Park have witnessed good levels of demand, particularly at Heywood where a number of high profile lettings have been secured. RETAIL MARKET Retailing not only provides employment and generates economic growth but also gives a real sense of place and vibrancy to an area. Manchester city centre and the Trafford Centre are beacons of retailing in the UK and the district town centres add to the overall retailing offer in Greater Manchester. In terms of retail rents, Manchester remains high (about 300 per sq ft in 2008) compared to the North West and the UK as a whole although below that for Birmingham (at 325 per sq ft in 2008). Retail rents outside the city centre Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 116

6 vary considerably, with Stockport and Trafford at the upper end of the spectrum and Tameside and Salford at the lower end In a recently published survey from the Local Data Company 3 it is clear there is already a clear north/south divide apparent in shop vacancy in the country. The big centres in London and the South East particularly are holding up well, while further north, vacancy rates are much higher. The report shows that most of the large centres of the North West have weakened further in the first half of the year. Altrincham sees the highest vacancy rate amongst the large and medium sized centres at over 30%, significantly higher than Manchester city centre (20.4%) and Warrington (22.9%). At just over 15% Liverpool sees the lowest vacancy rate of the city centres in the North West. LAND VALUES Land market values across the UK have fallen sharply since the beginning of 2008 with the onset of the recession. However, the latest official figures (to January 2010) gathered by the Valuation Office Agency (VOA) 4 since January 2009 appear to show that capital and rental value figures have started to stabilise despite future growth prospects remaining uncertain. The VOA split the property market into: Agricultural Land and Property which is not reported for Manchester Residential Building Land - This shows little change in values in the year to January 2010, with values staying well below the figures reached in 2007 due to continued uncertainty surrounding residential development, with affordable housing proving difficult for developers to provide without impacting adversely on scheme viability. VOA provide data on 26 cities or areas of London there is a clear split in values, with half the cities having values for a suburban 0.5 ha site well below 2M per ha, and half above this figure, rising to 4.7M in Outer London. Manchester is firmly in the bottom group (at 1.35M), below the core cities of Leeds, Sheffield, Liverpool and Bristol. Retail Market - Retail headline rent figures showed little change in the year up to January Rents in for prime (Zone A) retail space in Manchester are in the bottom half of the table (at 2,200/m²) but the Trafford Centre is third highest in the UK at 3,800, marginally ahead of Birmingham ( 3,500) behind only Bluewater ( 4,250) and the West End ( 6,000). Office Market - Whilst headline office rents fell in inner London during 2009, there do not appear to have been falls in rental values elsewhere 3 A Gathering Storm Shop Vacancy Report Mid Year 2010 Local Data Company Sept Valuation Office Agency Property Market Report 2010 as of 2010, the Property Market Report has moved to an annual (rather than biannual) publication and focuses upon a smaller number of markets, and thus only provides data for Manchester and does not provide any breakdown of the Greater Manchester market. Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 117

7 in England and Wales, though the value of incentives being offered by landlords, such as rent free periods, increased. Headline office rents in Manchester (at 250/m²) are in the top third in the UK, on a par with Leeds, but marginally below Birmingham and the main Scottish cities, and well below London rents, which rise to 750 in the West End. Industrial Market - Headline rental values have changed little over the year, with Manchester in mid table (on a par with Leeds) for both small starter units ( 75/m²) and industrial/warehouse units ( 55/m²), there was very little change in industrial land values in the year up to January 2010, with Manchester in mid table on a par with Birmingham at 650,000/ha, above all the core cities bar Bristol, but well below values in Outer London, which exceed 2M.sHeadline rental values as from the VOA are highlighted in more detail below. Table 2.8: Headline rental values as at 1 st January 2010 RESIDENTIAL RETAIL OFFICE INDUSTRIAL SELF- INDUSTRIAL/ CITY STANDARD CONTAINED SMALL- SUBURBAN 0.5 WAREHOUSE SHOP UNIT OFFICE STARTER Ha ( /Ha.) UNIT (1,000 to /sq.m. SUITE OVER ( sq.m.) 3,000 sq.m.) ZONE A 1,000 sq.m. /sq.m. /sq.m. ( sq.m.) MANCHESTER 1,350,000 2, BRISTOL 2,200,000 2, BIRMINGHAM 1,200,000 3, LEEDS 1,450,000 3, SHEFFIELD 1,500,000 2, NEWCASTLE 1,300,000 3, LIVERPOOL 1,500,000 2, GLASGOW 1,100,000 2, LONDON - 2, Source Property Market Report, VOA, The VOA data highlighted above shows that the Manchester property market generally offers competitive values, which can help to encourage further development. However, these relative values also reflect the weaknesses of the economy, and therefore its property requirements, in comparison with some other cities in the UK. The VOA figures also disguise the significant variation in property market values across Greater Manchester. The top end of many of Greater Manchester s property markets are amongst the most expensive in the UK reflecting the success of the conurbation in attracting investment and economic growth. The Trafford Centre is a prime example of this as highlighted below attracting 3,800 per square metre for a standard shop unit. Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 118

8 Table 2.9: Headline retail rental values as at 1 st January 2010 CENTRE LOCATION STANDARD SHOP UNIT /sq.m. WESTFIELD CENTRE WEST LONDON 2,600 BLUEWATER KENT 4,250 METROCENTRE TYNE & WEAR 3,450 TRAFFORD CENTRE MANCHESTER 3,800 Source Property Market Report: Retail, VOA, However, values in some other Greater Manchester property markets are amongst the lowest in the UK, suggesting that investors and occupiers are unwilling to look outside Greater Manchester s prime areas. This means the benefits of success are not being spread across the conurbation, limiting the availability of prime space, which in turn keeps prices high and constricts overall economic growth This issue was highlighted further in the Greater Manchester Town Centres Study 5, which highlights whilst the city centre and out-of-town locations have grown, Greater Manchester s other town centres have declined in both office and retail terms over the last decade despite strong economic growth. The study concludes that, without support, this decline will continue and the town centres will not perform their key service function for their local communities or be attractive to new investors. A challenge for Greater Manchester, therefore, is not just to continue to facilitate growth in the prime markets to support explicit demand where development activity has slowed dramatically in the current market conditions 6 but also to raise the quality in Greater Manchester s other property markets to ensure that these better meet market needs BROWNFIELD LAND Greater Manchester s past industrial heritage means that the conurbation has large amounts of brownfield land that needs to be brought back into use for residential development and new industrial growth. Official statistics from the Homes & Communities Agency (HCA) show that in 2008 there were almost 3,500 ha. of available brownfield land which represented 31.6% of the North West total. The majority of this land in Greater Manchester is located in Wigan, Salford and Manchester. The current levels of growth being planned for the conurbation can largely be accommodated on brownfield land within the existing urban area. 5 Drivers Jonas Deloitte et al. (19 July 2010) Greater Manchester Town Centres: A Forward Strategy, A Presentation to the Business Leadership Council 6 For example, city centre development activity has declined to just four office schemes (delivering 270,000 sq. ft.) expected to complete in 2010 (Drivers Jonas Deloitte, Crane Survey Manchester 2010) Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 119

9 Table 3.0: Previously developed land in Greater Manchester, 2008 LAND TYPE GREATER MANCHESTER Ha % OF NW TOTAL PREVIOUSLY DEVELOPED VACANT LAND VACANT BUILDING DERELICT LAND AND BUILDINGS 1, IN USE BUT WITH PLANNING ALLOCATION OR PERMISSION OTHER WITH KNOWN POTENTIAL TOTAL 3, Source: 2008 National Land Use Database of Previously Developed Land (NLUD-PLD), GMFM provides a useful base for the assessment of future land use demand. The figures below show employment net land demand between 2010 and 2032 by land type. Table 3.1: Forecast Employment Net Land Demand in GM by Land Type 2010 to 2032 (Thousand Square Metres) GREATER MANCHESTER Source: GMFM, 2010 OFFICE INDUSTRIAL WAREHOUSING 1, , It is forecast that over 1.9 million square metres (approx 190 hectares) of office employment floor space will be required between 2010 and 2032 in Greater Manchester and up to 319 thousand square metres more floor space will be required for warehousing. It is forecasted by the model that almost 1.5 million less square metres of floor space will be needed for industrial use. This reflects that the manufacturing and engineering sector is contracting and the newer, high technology forms of manufacturing that are expected to dominate future growth should typically require smaller units and more specific design requirements Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 120

10 13 HOUSING 13.1 The provision of a suitable housing supply is key to attracting and retaining people in Greater Manchester to support economic growth. The Greater Manchester Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) 2008 identified key long-term issues including meeting the need for additional housing, which would support the growth of the area and bridging the affordability gap There are an estimated 1,134,300 households across the conurbation (GMFM, 2010), but based on CLG estimates, GMFM forecasts this number will grow 9.5% by This growth in represents further concentration of households in the central area, which is already host to the majority of households in the conurbation. This partly reflects demographic changes towards smaller households, but in itself places additional pressures upon the provision of services in the conurbation core. Manchester has performed strongly in providing permanent housing for its residents, with the numbers living in temporary accommodation falling 60.9 % since 2004/05 (Q4 to Q3 2009/10), well above the English average of 47.2 % and the cities of Birmingham and London The Greater Manchester Strategic Housing Market Assessment 7 identifies 4 housing market areas (HMAs) which serve as a useful illustration of the varying housing market conditions across the conurbation: The Central HMA is the area at the conurbation core incorporating the conurbation core and associated apartment market. It has seen the highest levels of economic and housing growth, but also experiences the greatest deprivation. It is the area with the highest levels of forecast employment and population growth. The SHMA concluded that the Central Area, more than any other area, drives the outcomes of the rest of Greater Manchester. The North Eastern HMA comprises the districts of Oldham, Rochdale and Tameside and is the area of Greater Manchester with the weakest economy and lowest forecast employment and housing growth. The North Eastern HMA experiences high levels of deprivation. The HMR Pathfinder in Oldham and Rochdale has focused on the need to transform the housing stock to meet the needs of the indigenous population. There is also a need to bring forward aspirational housing and to carefully consider the impact of any additional sub market provision. It is critical that the opportunities offered by planned infrastructure provision (Metrolink) are optimised. The Southern HMA comprises the districts of Stockport, Trafford and parts of southern Manchester. It is the most affluent HMA in Greater Manchester and has the most balanced housing market. This area 7 Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 121

11 experiences the highest house prices and also the most acute issues with affordability. There is great pressure on the social rented stock. The SHMA8 concluded that the single biggest issue for the Southern HMA was affordability. Whilst this is undoubtedly true, the MIER9 highlighted the need to increase supply in attractive locations in order to meet demand from higher earners seeking to locate within Greater Manchester. The North Western HMA comprises the districts of Bury, Bolton and Wigan. This HMA is the most detached from the rest of Greater Manchester and is relatively self-contained. The area has seen high levels of housing growth over recent years but much of the higher value housing tends to house commuters travelling to the conurbation core, as evidenced by the outflow of skilled workers. The area experiences significant deprivation, concentrated around the town centres. The policy priority for this HMA is to enable housing to complement the ambitions for the town centres, in particular Bolton and Wigan. Figure 8.3: The Housing Market Areas (HMAs) of Greater Manchester Source: AGMA, Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 122

12 HOUSE PRICES AND SALES 13.4 There is evidence in Greater Manchester of a mismatch between supply and demand; analysis of house price data would suggest that there are not enough houses in the places where people want to live. The house prices across Greater Manchester vary significantly, as does the available housing stock and affordability (the ratio of earnings to house prices). From official adjusted statistics from the Land Registry, house prices in Greater Manchester are lower overall than comparator cities such as Birmingham and Leeds, though when broken down by house type, flats command a higher price than other selected cities but detached property prices tend to be lower During the recession, the housing market has been particularly volatile across the whole of the UK and house prices have shown similar trends in Greater Manchester to the national picture rising rapidly up to the end of 2007 and during 2008 before beginning to pick up again in 2009 and The latest statistics from the Land Registry still reflect the fragility of the market for all housing types and it is difficult to draw out any trends or predictions. Table 3.2: House Prices in Greater Manchester 2001 to 2009 DISTRICT PERCENT CHANGE AVERAGE HOUSE PRICES (ALL TYPES) GREATER MANCHESTER BOLTON 63, , , % -5.2% -5.4% BURY 69, , , % 0.7% -2.8% MANCHESTER 70, , , % -3.1% -9.7% OLDHAM 56, , , % -6.5% -8.0% ROCHDALE 64, , , % -2.6% -5.4% SALFORD 60, , , % -5.2% -9.2% STOCKPORT 97, , , % -4.3% -5.2% TAMESIDE 59, , , % -5.9% -9.2% TRAFFORD 128, , , % -9.2% -8.6% WIGAN 59, , , % -5.0% -7.3% ALL TYPES 73, , , % -2.3% -5.8% DETACHED 140, , , % -6.7% -6.5% FLATS 85, , , % -10.4% -18.6% SEMI- DETACHED 73, , , % -3.8% -6.9% TERRACED 44, , , % -5.3% -7.1% Source: Land Registry House Price Paid data, 2010 Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 123

13 13.6 The fall in the volume of transactions has been more striking than the fall in prices. This collapse in sales turnover has been the key feature of housing market change in the last three years, but has been more pronounced in Greater Manchester. Between 2007 and 2009, house sales in Greater Manchester fell by almost three-fifths, well above the England & Wales average of 50.5%. Sales fell by about 63% in the districts of Salford, Manchester and Wigan and least in Stockport and Trafford (though still over 50%). In terms of house prices and sales it is flats that have suffered the largest fall from the peak in the housing market in quarter 3 of This decrease in house prices occurred in the period Quarter 3 and 4 of 2008 in line with a sharp decline in new build properties The signs of some recovery in the housing market have been equity-led by the higher end of the market, with detached property sales increasing the most over A full market recovery will not occur until credit availability issues for first-time buyers are resolved. It is difficult to predict future market trends with any degree of certainty but how the different house types recover will reflect recovery rates in spatial terms within the different HMAs as described previously Recent housing market trends have exacerbated the need to address the long-term imbalance in the availability of different housing types across the Greater Manchester market and the need to diversify the housing stock. Over 32% of Greater Manchester s housing stock consists of terraced properties compared to 26% nationally (Census 2001) with only Stockport and Trafford having a terraced stock below the national average. This Greater Manchester figure is similar to Birmingham, lower than Liverpool (45%) and Coventry, but higher than in cities such as Newcastle (27.5%), Leeds (28%) and Sheffield (29%) Detached properties only account for 13.8% of housing stock in Greater Manchester, which is similar to other UK conurbations, but is well below the national average of 22.8% only Stockport within the conurbation approaches this national figure. Flats are particularly important to the Cities of Manchester and Salford, comprising well over a fifth of all household types, reflecting the extensive development of city living over the last decade. 10 Greater Manchester Strategic Housing Market Assessment Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 124

14 Table 3.3: Housing Type in Greater Manchester, 2008 DISTRICT TOTAL HOUSEHOLD S PROPORTION OF TOTAL PROPERTIES THAT ARE DETACHED (%) SEMI- DETACHED (%) TERRACED (%) FLAT, MAISONETTE OR APARTMENT (%) BOLTON 113, BURY 79, MANCHESTER 206, OLDHAM 91, ROCHDALE 88, SALFORD 99, STOCKPORT 123, TAMESIDE 95, TRAFFORD 94, WIGAN 133, GREATER MANCHESTER 1,124, Source: CACI, As the housing market recovers at different rates for different house types the different HMAs are likely to react differently to the housing market recovery. City centre flats were particularly vulnerable as they are commonly associated with first-time buyers and the buy-to-let market, so areas such as the Cities of Manchester and Salford have been affected the most by the economic downturn in terms of house prices and sales. The chart below (Figure 8.4) of sales by type in 2009 shows the dominance of terraced sales in Oldham, Tameside, Rochdale and Bolton, and flat sales in the Cities of Manchester and Salford The chart also shows the particular importance of semidetached properties in Trafford and Stockport and detached properties tend to be more prevalent around the periphery of the conurbation, particularly in Stockport, Wigan, and Bury. Specific housing markets, such as Didsbury and South Trafford contain the most expensive postcodes in the conurbation (WA14 and 15) 11. It is these areas of high-quality housing stock that correspond with the areas that people with the highest skills levels and occupations want to live. This is highlighted in the map below which shows the distribution ACORN categories across Greater Manchester. The Wealthy Achievers are predominantly on the periphery of the conurbation and represent the most successful and affluent people in the UK living in large houses and employed in managerial/professional occupations. In contrast, the Hard Pressed ACORN category represents the central areas of the town and cities and contains the 11 Crain s Wealthiest Postcode House Price List 2010 Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 125

15 poorest areas of the UK with employment in low skilled occupations and a mix of low rise estates, flats, terraced and semi detached properties. Figure 8.4: House Price Sales by type in Greater Manchester, % % 80% % PERCENTAGE OF SALES 60% 50% 40% 30% % 10% 0% BOLTON BURY MANCHESTER OLDHAM ROCHDALE SALFORD STOCKPORT TAMESIDE TRAFFORD WIGAN GM DETACHED FLATS SEMI-DETACHED TERRACED Source: Land Registry, 2010 Figure 8.5: ACORN Categories in Greater Manchester, by Output Area, 2010 Source: ACORN, 2010 Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 126

16 13.12 If the recovery of the housing market is skewed towards the high end of the market as the latest data suggests, then Greater Manchester could lag behind nationally due to the conurbation s imbalance in stock and inequalities would become more prevalent within the conurbation. A very localized and limited supply of high quality detached properties could deter and hinder the counties ability to attract and retain high end skills and occupations and this could pose a threat to overall economic growth levels. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Whilst the reductions in house prices have helped with the issue of affordability, this has been counterbalanced by the tightening of lending criteria. For example, the multiples of income upon which lenders are prepared to lend have been reduced and larger deposits required. Affordability ratios (income to house price) are highlighted below and show that the least affordable houses are in Trafford, with house prices being almost seven-times greater than income. Rochdale, Tameside and Oldham provide the most affordable properties, though are still nearly four-times that of income. Therefore reducing the affordability gap remains a priority across the whole of Greater Manchester. Table 3.4: Housing Affordability in Greater Manchester DISTRICT MEAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME ( ) 2010 HOUSE PRICES (1st QUARTER 2010) AFFORDABILITY RATION (INCOME TO HOUSE PRICE) BOLTON 32, , BURY 35, , MANCHESTER 29, , OLDHAM 31, , ROCHDALE 31, , SALFORD 31, , STOCKPORT 37, , TAMESIDE 32, , TRAFFORD 39, , WIGAN 32, , GREATER MANCHESTER 33, , Source: CACI 2008 and Land Registry House Price Paid data, A more localised picture of affordability is highlighted in the map overleaf (Figure 8.6), which shows the affordability ratios of postcodes house sales in 2009 where a house sale has taken place over the year. Although there are pockets of unaffordable housing across the conurbation its is clear that the southern part of the conurbation contains the least affordable housing with many postcodes experiencing house prices almost nine-times that of the average household income for that postcode. Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 127

17 Figure 8.6: Housing affordability in Greater Manchester, 2010 Source: Land Registry House Price Paid data and CACI, 2010 Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 128

18 HOUSING SUPPLY Until recently Greater Manchester was required by the Regional Spatial Strategy to make provision for just less than 10,000 new homes a year and this was supported in Greater Manchester and underpinned by the GMFM. Through emerging development plans across the 10 districts there are proposals to provide in excess of 200,000 new homes across Greater Manchester. The planned distribution of new housing is not evenly spread and reflects the policy priority to repopulate the core of the conurbation and reconnect these neighbourhoods to the economic opportunities nearby. Manchester and Salford currently account for over half of Greater Manchester s proposed supply. The revocation of RSS removes the district level targets for housing but does not remove the need to increase the supply of new homes During the year 2008/9 there has been a significant decrease of over 45% in the number of new houses built (housing completions) across Greater Manchester. Completions in the districts of Manchester, Bolton and Wigan declined the most in this period. Only Oldham showed any increase in net completions over the year to The number of new affordable homes built has increased between 2006 and 2008, though most of this has been in Salford. This still represents a relatively small amount and will have a limited impact on addressing future need across Greater Manchester The number of site clearances in the Cities of Manchester and Salford decreased the most over this period, whilst Oldham increased the most. This reflected the Housing Market Renewal programmes in these areas, with Manchester and Salford HMRAs coming to the end of their clearance programmes whilst Oldham and Rochdale are still implementing theirs In 2008/09 completions fall across Greater Manchester, although the conurbation core (particularly to the Salford side of the core) does deliver higher levels of completions than elsewhere in the conurbation, indicating that the city-centre market and Market Renewal Pathfinder area is leading delivery of growth Although the owner occupied market has suffered the rental market is strong, with rents highest at the core and in South Manchester. Rents have increased in many areas, including throughout Bury and Oldham, in Inner Trafford and in the city centre and surrounding areas The fall in land values and purchaser confidence has left the development market particular vulnerable and the supply picture is still very uncertain The Crane Survey 13 highlights that in 2010 the conurbation core is expected to have the lowest completions in more than a decade. Just 30 units are scheduled to be complete in the city centre in the next 12 months, down 99% 12 Understanding the impact of the Recession on Housing Growth October Crane Survey Manchester 2010, Drivers Jonas Deloitte Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 129

19 from the 2,050 units delivered in Several stalled conurbation core fringe projects will benefit from the HCA s Kickstart programme launched last year. This will provide funding to restart construction in the coming months New core apartment schemes will remain in extremely short supply however, with neither developers nor the government having an appetite to step up and risk commencing work on projects in such a volatile market Research undertaken by AGMA 14 on the effect of the recession on the Greater Manchester housing market further illustrates the significant impact that the recession has had on the future housing land supply. The research assessed the impacts of the recession on a large sample of sites throughout Greater Manchester and found that almost one third of units under construction have stalled or slowed and that in total one fifth of sites included in the assessment have been identified as adversely effected by current market conditions. The research identified 5% of sites in the assessment that have seen a decrease in number of units to be delivered and 4% of sites that will to be delivered over an extended timescale. Although these percentages seem relatively low, these statistics represent the known changes; consultation with local authority officers and developers suggest that the impact of reducing numbers and extending timescales will be far greater than these statistics imply. The research also confirmed that developers are continuing to use risk-averse business models; there is a trend for reduced densities, fewer apartments and fewer three-storey homes with a return to traditional 3 and 4 bed properties In the short term, responding to the recession and dealing with the problems of town centre housing markets are priorities for the housing market in Greater Manchester. The focus needs to be on quality, diversity and community infrastructure to support economic growth across the conurbation. In the longer term, challenges include meeting the need for additional housing, housing as an important part of regeneration and reducing the affordability gap Understanding the Impact of the Recession on Housing Growth October Understanding the impact of the Recession on Housing Growth October Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 130

20 14 QUALITY OF LIFE 14.1 Whilst economic opportunities is the key driver of the attractiveness of the conurbation as a place for people to live, it is also important that this is supplemented by a strong quality of life offer, including cultural, leisure, and environmental assets. The strength of this offer is well illustrated by the visitor economy, which has been successful in not only meeting the needs of residents but also drawing UK and international visitors into the conurbation, such that Greater Manchester is now the most visited English conurbation outside London Across Greater Manchester there are areas of outstanding environmental quality, include its network of river valleys and canals, though the main concentration is the Pennine belt in the northeast of the conurbation. Environmental quality is an important element of the conurbation s quality of life attractiveness, and the role of green infrastructure will become increasingly important in the future Whilst there is a clear conurbation core focus to Greater Manchester s tourism offer, the conurbation as a whole has a diverse range of attractions, including heritage and countryside assets, which strongly complement the conurbation core offer and are explored further in the district chapters. Major events and venues such as the Lowry Centre, War Museum North, Manchester International Festival, Bridgewater Hall, and first-class sporting facilities at Old Trafford and Sportcity all contribute to the vitality not only of the conurbation but the wider North of England. Table 3.5: Visitors to Greater Manchester, VISITOR YEAR DAYS (millions) Change % Source: Visit Manchester Greater Manchester Tourism Facts & Figures, 2010 Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 131

21 14.4 Greater Manchester has firmly positioned itself as the second visited English conurbation, with 102.3M visitors in 2008, spending 110.6M visitor days in the conurbation, a growth of 28 % since the turn of the century, as shown in Table 3.5. The International Passenger Survey estimates that in 2008 there were 1.1M international visitors to Greater Manchester, well ahead of Birmingham and only marginally behind Edinburgh (London is far and away the most popular UK destination, with 14.7M international visitors) As highlighted in the MIER, 16 Greater Manchester is famous for its vibrant nightlife, music scene and iconic sporting institutions. The success of the events such as the Commonwealth Games in 2002, the 2007 UEFA Cup Final and the World Swimming Championships in 2008 have all raised the conurbation s profile. Several new hotels have improved the tourism offer and Greater Manchester is home to highest concentration of theatres outside of London, home to the Hallé orchestra at the Bridgewater Hall, and the MEN Arena, which sold more tickets than anywhere else in the world in the last 5 years This diversity is illustrated by the Top Ten Visitor Attractions across Greater Manchester, as shown in Table 3.6, which include attractions in four of the conurbation s districts. Table 3.6: Top Ten Visitor Attractions in Greater Manchester, 2008 ATTRACTION NUMBER OF VISITORS MOSI (MUSEUM OF SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY) 852,262 [MANCHESTER] THE LOWRY [SALFORD] 841,496 MANCHESTER ART GALLERY [MANCHESTER] 394,205 MANCHESTER UNITED FC MUSEUM [TRAFFORD] 326,654 BOLTON MUSEUM, AQUARIUM & ARCHIVE [BOLTON] 309,865 URBIS [MANCHESTER] 262,114 MANCHESTER MUSEUM [MANCHESTER] 244,265 IMPERIAL WAR MUSEUM NORTH [TRAFFORD] 238,794 MANCHESTER AIRPORT VIEWING PARK [MANCHESTER] 228,000 MANCHESTER CENTRAL [MANCHESTER] 209,250 Source: STEAM (The Scarborough Tourism Economic Activity Monitor) in Visit Manchester Greater Manchester Tourism Facts & Figures, Business tourism is also increasingly important asset to Greater Manchester and a focus of this is often the iconic Manchester Central convention centre. Political Party Conferences are regular features of Manchester s calendar with Labour holding their conference in 2010 and the Conservatives in 2009 (returning in 2011). 16 Manchester Independent Economic Review, Economic Baseline 2008 Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 132

22 15 TRANSPORT 15.1 As highlighted above, Greater Manchester benefits from a comprehensive multimodal transport network, which interconnects the conurbation and provides national and international linkages, supporting both the movement of skills and the flow of goods. The conurbation has an orbital motorway, sits on the West Coast Main Line, trans-pennine motorway and railway linkages underpinning the North European Trade Axis running from the Mersey to the Humber ports, the largest heavy rail network outside of London, and the UK s most successful light rail system in Metrolink. These light and heavy rail links have been instrumental in facilitating the flow of skills into the conurbation core to drive economic growth, and are illustrated in Figure 8.7. Figure 8.7: Greater Manchester Rail Network, 2010 Source: GMPTE, Manchester Airport is a vital asset to the conurbation and the only true international gateway to the whole of the North of England. With over 190 destinations for passengers and freight, the total passenger numbers for 2009 show that Manchester had over 18.7 million passengers; double that of Birmingham. Manchester Airport is the fourth largest in the country for both passengers and freight as outlined in the table below. It has excellent links to the rail network and its accessibility will be further enhanced with the extension of the Metrolink by Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 133

23 Table 3.7: Passenger numbers at UK Airports, 2009 AIRPORT TOTAL PASSENGERS HEATHROW 66,036,957 GATWICK 32,392,520 STANSTED 19,957,077 MANCHESTER 18,724,889 LUTON 9,120,546 BIRMINGHAM 9,102,899 EDINBURGH 9,049,355 GLASGOW 7,225,021 BRISTOL 5,642,921 AIRPORT TOTAL FREIGHT HEATHROW 1,277, EAST MIDLANDS INT. 255, STANSTED 182, MANCHESTER 102, GATWICK 74, KENT INTERNATIONAL 30, BELFAST INTERNATIONAL 29, LUTON 28, EDINBURGH 23, PRESTWICK 13, BIRMINGHAM 13, Source CAA, UK Airport Statistics, There are now around 1 million commuting trips made each weekday morning within Greater Manchester, with a further 140,000 trips coming into the conurbation from neighbouring areas, and around 100,000 trips departing Greater Manchester for neighbouring areas 17. Year on year, on average, journey times across Greater Manchester have increased as the economy has grown and demand for travel has increased with it Figure 8.8 shows the accessibility of the city centre in terms of commuting on public transport within the conurbation. Whilst most of the main town centres, apart from Wigan, can access the conurbation core within 40 minutes at peak commuting time, this time is significantly longer within many residential areas across the conurbation. 17 GM 2011 Local Transport Plan Long Term Strategy Consultation Draft September 2011 Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 134

24 Figure 8.8: Accessibility to Manchester City Centre by public transport, 2010 Source: GMPTE, Over 60% of people working in Greater Manchester now travel for more than 20 minutes to work and nearly 25% of workers commute for over 40 minutes each morning. The majority of trips on the local motorway network are bound for Greater Manchester, particularly in the morning peak, which indicates the importance of commuting from outside the area The growth in the economy has led to an increase in overall road travel in Greater Manchester. This has been managed to a reasonable degree through the completion of the M60 motorway at the start of the last decade, which has helped ease pressure on A roads and reduced the number of serious accidents on the local road network. The number of morning peak car journeys into the city centre has reduced by 15%, whilst total commuting numbers have increased, with journeys transferring onto public transport, cycling and walking alternatives as highlighted below: Public transport, cycling and walking now accounting for 70% of morning trips into the city centre compared to 61% in 2002 Local rail travel has increased from 17 million journeys in 2001/2 to 22.6 million in 2008/9 Metrolink travel has increased from 18.3 million journeys in 2001/2 to 20 million journeys in 2008/9 Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 135

25 Local bus travel has increased from 223 million journeys in 2001/2 to 236 million in 2008/9 The number of people cycling has increased by 17% since However, some significant challenges remain. For example, the total number of vehicle kilometres on the local motorway system has increased by 25% since 2000, presenting challenges at many key sections and average speeds of just 34 mph across the Greater Manchester motorway system in the morning peak period, 80% of cars on key commuting routes in the morning peak have just the driver on board and car trips still account for nearly 60% of all commuting trips into the other key Greater Manchester centres outside the conurbation core. The growth in demand for public transport, as highlighted above, is such that it has resulted in growing issues of overcrowding on the local rail and Metrolink systems in particular Effective transport connections are essential in addressing the problems of deprivation as they link people to jobs and provide for sustainable economic growth. It is recommended in Greater Manchester s Local Transport Plan that bus use is to be encouraged to ensure that the network does not contract to the detriment of our most vulnerable communities 15.9 It is also important that new developments continue to support sustainable development priorities. Metrolink has a proven record of taking car trips off the road and the development of the network is a key feature of investment priorities in the next few years in Greater Manchester. By the end of 2012 four new lines will nearly double the size of the tram network with 20 miles of new track and 27 new Metrolink stops. The new lines will go to Oldham and Rochdale, Chorlton, Droylsden and MediaCity. The effect will be to take five million car journeys off the roads each year and increase the number of daily passenger trips on Metrolink from 55,000 to 90, The following investment schemes have been identified as the priorities for Greater Manchester and are highlighted in the following map: Metrolink: Chorlton to East Didsbury Metrolink: Droylsden to Ashton Cross City Bus Package Park and Ride in Greater Manchester Metrolink: Rochdale and Oldham Town Centres Metrolink: Airport and Second City Crossing Altrincham Interchange Bolton Town Centre Strategy (formerly Bolton Interchange) Leigh-Salford-Manchester Busway South East Manchester Multi-Modal Study (SEMMMS) road scheme Longdendale Integrated Transport Strategy Ashton Northern Bypass Stage 2 Wigan Inner Relief Road 18 GM 2011 Local Transport Plan Long Term Strategy Consultation Draft September 2011 Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 136

26 15.11 In addition possible schemes include the expansion of Metrolink to Trafford Park; the development of a new Interchange and new town centre access scheme for Stockport; and the identification of optimal transport solutions for the north Bury and West Rochdale corridors that feature the East Lancashire Railway. The map overleaf highlights these proposed schemes. Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 137

27 Figure 8.9: Transport Fund schemes in Greater Manchester, 2010 Source: GMPTE, 2010 Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 138

28 16 CONCLUSION 16.1 As with any large metropolitan area, different parts of the conurbation contribute to the functional geography in different ways. The conurbation core is the focus of economic restructuring and growth, offering the largest office market outside London and an environment that is attractive to financial & professional services, with the connectivity and infrastructure to attract the skilled labour needed by these sectors from across Greater Manchester and beyond. The conurbation core extends from city centre of Manchester into Salford, and onto the adjacent development of Salford Quays/Trafford Wharfside which has a mixed office, industrial and logistics offer, and includes MediaCity, with a specific focus upon the creative & digital industries. The conurbation core also extends out along The Corridor, which comprises Europe s largest concentration of knowledge assets, including Universities, hospitals, and Manchester Science Park. The conurbation core also includes two of the UK s top ranked retail offers in Manchester City Centre and, at the edge of Trafford Park, the Trafford Centre The conurbation core has dominated take-up within Greater Manchester s office market and competes successfully on a national scale with Birmingham, Bristol, Glasgow and Leeds. Office development elsewhere in the conurbation has focused on out-of-town business parks, particularly to the south of the conurbation, though Middlebrook (in Bolton) and Central Park (in New East Manchester) have also enjoyed notable success. However, these out-of-town developments have in some circumstances resulted in a loss of activity in Greater Manchester s town centres, which has exacerbated the overall poor performance of these centres over the last decade in employment and retail terms, despite high levels of economic growth The conurbation core even dominates the industrial market, with Trafford Park remaining the most attractive location for industrial and logistics activities (with distribution and warehousing requirements now dominating the industrial sector) within Greater Manchester. With the conurbation s market characterised by average to poor quality stock and a shortage of large, modern, units (100,000+ sq ft), Heywood Distribution Park and Kingsway in Rochdale to the north, along with Ashton Moss in Tameside to the east, have been successful in the industrial market, particularly to logistics occupiers A comprehensive multimodal transport network interconnects the conurbation and provides national and international linkages, supporting both the movement of skills and the flow of goods. The conurbation has an orbital motorway, sits on the West Coast Main Line, trans-pennine motorway and railway linkages underpinning the North European Trade Axis running from the Mersey to the Humber ports, the largest heavy rail network outside of London, and the UK s most successful light rail system in Metrolink. These light and heavy rail links have been instrumental in facilitating the flow of skills into the Manchester s Commission for the New Economy 0139