Inclusive Growth indicators: Core city and GM Local Authority comparisons

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1 Inclusive Growth indicators: Core city and GM Local Authority comparisons Dr. Anthony Rafferty (Senior Researcher IGAU, Senior Lecturer Alliance Manchester Business School) Prof. Ruth Lupton (Director, IGAU)

2 Agenda Core city LEP comparisons: Some positive news on prosperity but continuing challenges on inclusion. GM Local Authorities Methodological issues and limitations: A work in progress. Conclusions

3 ) Core city LEP comparisons

4 Core city LEPS: Prosperity theme Output Growth Greater Manchester Employment West of England (Bristol City Region).5.5 Leeds City Region.5 Liverpool City Region.5 North Eastern Human Capital 4 4 Prosperity Theme Total Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire Sheffield City Region 4.5 Greater Birmingham and Solihull 4 4

5 Core city LEPS: Inclusion theme Greater Manchester West of England (Bristol City Region) Leeds City Region Liverpool City Region North Eastern Inclusion Theme Total 9 8 Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire Sheffield City Region 4 Greater Birmingham and Solihull 4

6 Prosperity Theme Normalised change scores (-4) (-9 score) i) Prosperity Theme Total West of England North Eastern Sheffield City Region Liverpool City Region Leeds City Region Greater Birmingham and Solihull Nottinghamshire/Derbyshire Greater Manchester

7 Inclusion theme normalised change scores (-4) (-9 score) ii) Inclusion Theme Total West of England North Eastern Sheffield City Region Liverpool City Region Leeds City Region Greater Birmingham and Solihull Nottinghamshire/Derbyshire Greater Manchester

8 LEP comparisons -4: Summary GM highest performing core city LEP on change over time on prosperity theme total. Notable improvements on employment theme GM in the bottom on the inclusion theme total. Partly a victim of economic success through declining rental affordability affecting living costs dimension

9 Change by inclusion dimension (-4) ii) Inclusion Theme West of England North Eastern Sheffield City Region Liverpool City Region Leeds City Region Greater Birmingham and Solihull Nottinghamshire/Derbyshire Greater Manchester.5 Income Living Costs.5 Labour Market Exclusion.5

10 Change by prosperity dimension (-4) i) Prosperity Theme West of England North Eastern Sheffield City Region Liverpool City Region Leeds City Region Greater Birmingham and Solihull Nottinghamshire/Derbyshire Greater Manchester.5 Human Capital Employment.5 Output Growth.5

11 ) GM Local Authorities

12 Composite normalised scores: Prosperity 9 i) Prosperity Theme Bolton Bury Manchester Oldham Rochdale Output Employment Salford Stockport Human Capital Tameside Trafford Wigan

13 Composite normalised scores: Inclusion 9 ii) Inclusion Theme Bolton Bury Manchester Oldham Income Rochdale Living Costs Salford Stockport Labour Market Exclusion Tameside Trafford Wigan

14 Some underlying issues 5,, 5,, 5,, 5, - Workplace Jobs Workplace jobs per residents GVA oer capita Output Gross pay ( /week) Low Earnings (th percentile) % WA Population Intermediate and Higher Skills Output centrally concentrated: Ongoing issue of connectivity Lower job density in surrounding LAs and low earnings (e.g. Bolton and Tameside) Raising of intermediate and high level skills needed to benefit more from economic centre (e.g. Oldham)?

15 Some underlying issues 8 Intermediate and Higher Skills % WA Population % WA Population People in Employment % Pupils acheiving 5 A*-C Educational Attainment Some disconnect in city centre between prosperity and inclusion Higher output but continuing employment issues Educational attainment

16 ) Conclusions and Methodological issues/ limitations

17 Conclusions -4: GM Highest core city performer on prosperity theme rd lowest performance on inclusion theme although partly victim of economic success (housing demand and declining rental affordability) Strength of economy remains highly centrally concentrated (Manchester and Salford) Problems of lower growth and job density outside of the centre; Continuing issues of improving connectivity to centre area and skills Degree of Disconnect between prosperity generated and inclusion in central city locality Skill levels and employment participation key to enhancing prosperity and inclusion

18 Methodological issues and limitations A first attempt to put issues of growth and inclusion on the same page Capturing interconnectedness Understanding impacts on different demographic groups E.g. Gender differences and low pay measures; Ethnic differences in labour market exclusion. Benefit reform and change over time

19 Report URL