165 m 165 million of investment transactions during k. 2m+ 10.2% THE LISNEY BELFAST COMMERCIAL PROPERTY REPORT. The Market in Numbers Q 4
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1 Quarter 4, The Market in Numbers Q 4 & OUTLOOK THE LISNEY BELFAST COMMERCIAL PROPERTY REPORT Investment Office 165 m 165 million of investment transactions during 885k sq ft Annual take up throughout Belfast City Centre in Retail 10.2% Prime Retail Vacancy Belfast prime retail vacancy up 1.0% to 10.2% Industrial 2m+ sq ft The Difference Annual take in
2 Investment Overview Activity After a resilient summer, dominated by high profile office investment quarter 4 saw 100m+ of new product come to market, much of which was focused on the office sector with vendors buoyed by a strong performance over the preceding months. Q4 Volumes were down significantly to 30m with the largest transaction of the quarter being the sale of Bow Street Mall in Lisburn to a private Irish investor for These transactions bring our annual volumes to 165m which is down from the 305m traded in However if we take out the single largest transaction of 2017, being the 123m sale of Castlecourt then the drop is much less pronounced, though still down on our 5 year average of 300m which is unsurprising in the current macro environment. Million (Sterling) Investment Volumes, Q Q4 140m 120m 100m 80m 60m 40m 20m 80m Q m Q1 55m Q2 70m Q3 30m Q4 NI investment volumes are traditionally dominated by retail and the sector, as a result, has been particularly hit by cost price inflation and tenant defaults over the last 12 months. Northern Ireland therefore, like the rest of the UK, has seen investment volumes and investor appetite drop off, especially outside of prime pitches. Metro Building, Donegall Square South, Belfast Investment Volumes, Million (Sterling) 500m 400m 300m 200m 100m 400m 420m 213m 305m 165m Notable Transactions Throughout Property Sector Value Metro Building, Donegall Square South, Belfast Office Next and Easons, Donegall Place, Belfast Retail Obel 68, Donegall Quay, Belfast Office Bow Street Mall, Lisburn Shopping Centre Castlebawn Retail Park, Newtownards Retail Park 8.5m Page 2 The Lisney Northern Ireland Commercial Property Report Q4 & Outlook
3 Investment Outlook Where we can point to positivity is the office sector, Lisney s sales of both the Obel 68 and the Metro Building saw some of the strongest pricing ever achieved locally with a depth of local, national and international demand, demonstrating liquidity for good quality, appropriately priced product. The importance of pricing continues to be a theme with investors, our key local USP is maintaining a discount or yield gap between NI and the rest of the UK, where vendors are cognisant of this, there is undoubtedly demand. Obel 68, Donegall Quay, Belfast Office Overview Activity The office market has continued in record breaking fashion with take up now approaching 885,000 sq ft as the year draws to a close. To put this into context the 5 year average take-up is approximately 460,000 sq ft, emphasising the strength of demand and perhaps deflating the impression that Brexit is causing uncertainty amongst office occupiers and the business community. The trend of Tech and Digital domination continues to be a real positive for the Belfast market whilst co-working space operators have also been active. Wework s global rise in that particular sector has been rapid, with many landlords and investors waiting to see if there is a potential structural shift within the general office market, many of whom will look south and note that there has been a 93% increase in co-working space take up in Dublin over the past 18 months. The most notable letting of the quarter was to PWC, as media reports have indicated that the deal will make them the anchor tenant in the Merchant Square development. Currently based in Waterfront Plaza, PWC s existing 2,000 staff will relocate to Merchant Square in the summer of When the development is completed it will include 200,000 sq ft of grade A office accommodation across nine floors, with space for more than 3,000 people the scheme is being developed by Oakland Holdings. PWC confirmed that future plans for further investment and job creation meant that it was running out of space in its current Belfast headquarters. Proposed development at The Sixth Page 3 The Lisney Northern Ireland Commercial Property Report Q4 & Outlook
4 Office Outlook A continuing trend within the Belfast office is a lack of supply, with no new stock scheduled to be available to occupy through the remainder of. We do however expect to see supply levels grow in the foreseeable future with the arrival of a number of refurbished buildings including Chichester House (48,000 sq ft). There have been significant letting at River House with both TLT and Clockwise taking space with other new occupiers to be confirmed. A significant mixed use scheme has also been launched by Castlebrooke Investments Tribeca a 12-acre site beside St Anne s Cathedral and bordering Royal Avenue, Donegall Street, Lower Garfield Street and Rosemary Street, the proposed scheme will include 1,500,000 sq ft of residential and office space as well as a retail and hospitality element significantly the first phase of Tribeca will be two Grade A office buildings extending to 180,000 sq ft. As a continued word of caution, we foresee supply constraints of larger buildings, especially in floor plates in excess of 20,000 sq ft. This emphasizes a strong reliance on schemes such as the Sixth (former Belfast Telegraph building) City Quays 3, Bedford Square, Waterside, Bankmore Square being delivered to facilitate any companies who seek to expand within Northern Ireland within the next 12 to 24 months. Square Feet Rent /PSF 1m 900k 800k 700k 600k 500k 400k 300k 200k 100k Annual Office Take Up k 348k 209k 535k 326k 885k Headline Rents, Headline Rents 2020 Notable Office Transactions, Q4 Landlord Tenant Size (sq ft) Location Oakland PWC 155,012 3rd - 9th Floor, Merchant Square, Wellington Place Straben BESpoke 19,774 Ground & 1st Floors, Adelaide Exchange, Adelaide Street Castleforge TLT 11,630 12th & 13th Floor, River House, High Street Killultagh Allen & Overy 9,500 5th Floor, The Linenhall, Linenhall Street Angus Properties Teamwork 8,870 1st, 2nd and 3rd Floors Laganview House Causeway Asset Management StepSpace 5,591 1st Floor, Centre House, Chichester Street Private Landlord CYTI 3,415 4th Floor, Moneda House, Wellington Place Private Landlord Firemelon 3,326 5th Floor, Moneda House, Wellington Place Private Landlord Fintru 3,100 3rd Floor, 74/76 Dublin Road Page 4 The Lisney Northern Ireland Commercial Property Report Q4 & Outlook
5 Retail Overview Activity Despite very difficult headwinds in the sector as a whole, Belfast and Northern Ireland s high streets and shopping centres have remained relatively resilient throughout. Continued occupier demand has seen vacancy rates for the province as a whole (prime, secondary and out of town) improving from 16.6% in 2017 to 15.1% in. Prime occupancy rates improved from 13% to 12.8% despite Belfast s prime core falling back slightly to 10.2% from 9.1% in After months of disruption following the Primark fire, Belfast saw bumper footfall in December with reports of in excess of 20% increase on More than 3 months on from the Primark fire that shut down a large part of our prime high street, early December saw the new temporary walkway in place, reopening the key access routes between Donegall Place, Royal Avenue and Castle Place. This brought about the reopening of McDonald s, Spar, Argento, and Skechers. Also, in the following week we saw the welcome return of Primark in Commonwealth House, the original extension to Bank Buildings. Five Guys had new openings in Q4 Despite a number of high profile CVAs our out of town locations are experiencing continued demand from retailers including M&S, B&M, Iceland, TK Maxx, Dunelm, EZ Living, Pets at Home and Poundstretcher, so we expect to see stores vacated by Toys R Us, Maplin, Carpetright, Mothercare etc relet throughout. Noteable openings in Q4 saw M&S Simply Food and O Neills open at the redeveloped Marlborough Retail Park, Craigavon and Pets at Home s new store at Bloomfield Retail Park in Bangor. In Belfast, Irish department store Guineys opened on Castle Place, Matalan opened its first town centre store in NI at CastleCourt and Mike Ashley s Brand Max made its NI debut with their opening in Connswater. These lettings combined brought approximately 60,000 sq ft of vacant space back to life! The food and beverage sector continued to be buoyant, with openings including Five Guys at Boucher Square and alongside Nandos at Rushmere Shopping Centre in Craigavon. Tim Horton and Subway opened new drive thru units at Connswater and Boucher Road and Starbucks opened on Wellington Place in Belfast. After months of disruption following the Primark fire, Belfast saw bumper footfall in December. Page 5 The Lisney Northern Ireland Commercial Property Report Q4 & Outlook
6 Retail Outlook will undoubtedly see further turmoil in the sector with the perfect storm of online competition, political and economic uncertainty, reducing discretionary spending and squeezed margins leading to more business failure and CVAs. However as we have seen throughout there is a pool of active retailers pursuing opportunities where landlords are prepared to be realistic on rents and incentive packages. Prime Retail Vacancy, Vacancy % % 10.2% 9.2% Belfast NI UK Notable Transactions, Q4 Trader Type Location Town/City Area (sq ft) Matalan Shopping Centre Castlecourt Shopping Centre Belfast 24,000 Brand Max Shopping Centre Connswater Shopping Centre Belfast 22,000 Guineys High Street Castle Place Belfast 21,700 Airtastic Out of Town Marlborough Retail Park Craigavon 16,000 O Neills Out of Town Marlborough Retail Park Craigavon 14,000 Pets at Home Out of Town Bloomfield Shopping Centre Bangor 10,000 Bargain Buys Shopping Centre Richmond Centre Londonderry 8,300 M&S Simply Food Out of Town Marlborough Retail Park Craigavon 7,000 Savers Shopping Centre Connswater Shopping Centre Belfast 5,000 McDonald s Food & Beverage The Junction Belfast 4,700 Sports Direct Shopping Centre Connswater Shopping Centre Belfast 4,500 Guess Out of Town The Boulevard Banbridge 3,735 Nandos Food & Beverage Rushmere Shopping Centre Craigavon 3,571 Tim Hortons Food & Beverage Connswater Shopping Centre Belfast 3,305 Five Guys Food & Beverage Rushmere Shopping Centre Craigavon 3,171 Starbucks Food & Beverage Wellington Place Belfast 2,500 Subway Food & Beverage Boucher Road Belfast 2,000 Tommy Hilfiger Shopping Centre Tower Centre Ballymena 1,476 Jack Wills Out of Town The Boulevard Banbridge 1,456 Tribal Burger Food & Beverage Callender Street Belfast 1,400 Taboo Food & Beverage Tower Centre Ballymena 1,300 Page 6 The Lisney Northern Ireland Commercial Property Report Q4 & Outlook
7 Industrial Where Quarter 3 saw a raft of large lettings and very few sales, Quarter 4 has had a number of large sales completing giving a more even spread to the market. Overview A large proportion of the live industrial requirements are driven by the retail sector for nationwide distribution. Activity This is a similar trend to that seen in the rest of the UK where 46% of all logistics take-up relates to retailers. Online retailers such as Amazon, who took another large building in Channel Commercial Park, Belfast last quarter, are seeking distribution facilities to help support growing demand for Ecommerce. These companies aspire to be as close to Chimney Pots as possible to enable high speed delivery to their customers. The largest transaction of the quarter involved the sale of an industrial facility on Ballyronan Road, Magherafelt. This comprised a total of 146,927 sq ft on a site of 32.5 acres. Channel Commercial Park in Titanic Quarter continues to be an attractive destination for local businesses. The location of the park and quality of the accommodation appeals to a wide variety of tenants, this has been highlighted again by the recent expansion of BLK Box Fitness who now occupy in excess of 40,000 sq ft within the park and continue to expand. Another noteworthy transaction within the park was Smith Metals taking a 5 year lease on a 7,588 sq ft warehouse unit. Ballyronan Road, Magherafelt In Derry~Londonderry a large facility in Springtown Industrial Estate sold in late December. This comprised a total of 38,000 sq ft on a site of 2.52 acres and offered an opportunity to purchase in a popular and well located area. On the supply front another large industrial facility at Caulside Drive in Antrim has come to the market, the former manufacturing facility extends to 99,572 sq ft and benefits from an adjoining site that extends to 5.4 acres the asking price of 3.75m is below the construction cost for this type of facility, especially when the additional lands are factored in. 15 Ballinderry Road, Lisburn has also come to the market former manufacturing and distribution warehouse facility extends to 32,884 sq ft on a site of 2.48 acres the asking price of 1.5m reflects a capital value of 46 per square foot, also emphasising that capital values remain substantially below the cost of replacement. Notable Industrial Transactions, Q4 Location Size (sq ft) Type Ballyronan Road, Magherafelt 146,927 Sale 14 Kilbegs Road, Antrim 56,741 Letting Springtown Industrial Estate, Derry/Londonderry 38,000 Sale Heron Road, Belfast 26,400 Sale Channel Commercial Park, Belfast 14,348 Letting Channel Commercial Park, Belfast 7,588 Letting Total 290,004 Outlook With the increase in delivery-orientated purchasing comes a potential boon for the industrial sector. Advanced distribution centres are now commonplace in many industrial parks across the UK. What were once termed warehouses are now referred to as fulfilment centres and we have already seen Amazon locate within Titanic Quarter which is only the start of things to come. Page 7 The Lisney Northern Ireland Commercial Property Report Q4 & Outlook
8 Outlook - Synopsis Our Offices Investment Volumes uncertain due to political instability. UK investors looking for value in the regions. Multi-family and logistic sectors worth watching. Office Demand continues despite political uncertainties. Headline rents to stabilise between psf. Demand continuing for serviced offices and co-working spaces. Retail - One To Watch! There may be value in retail given the lack of sentiment towards this sector. Industrial Demand withing retail/logistics sector is increasing. Opportunities Continued interest in buy to let, student accommodation and serviced apartments. BELFAST Montgomery House, Montgomery Street, Belfast, BT1 4NX T: E: belfast@lisney.com DUBLIN St. Stephen s Green House, Earlsfort Terrace, Dublin 2 D02 PH42 T: E: dublin@lisney.com CORK 1 South Mall, Cork T12 CCN3 T: E: cork@lisney.com LONDON 33 Cavendish Square, Marylebone, London United Kingdom, W1G 0PW T: E: london@lisney.com Global View Percentage Growth 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0 1.1% 1.2% Northern Ireland * GROWTH VERSUS FORECAST 7.0% 5.6% Republic of Ireland 1.3% 1.6% United Kingdom 1.9% 1.6% EuroZone 3.7% 3.5% Global Forecast The Lisney Research Team * Please note that the values used will not be confirmed until the end of Q1 and are estimates. Declan Flynn Managing Director David McNellis Director (Agency) Gareth Johnston Director (Professional Services) Nicky Finnieston Director (Retail & Investment) Andrew Gawley Director (Industrial Agency) Stephen Chambers Associate Director (Investment) Jonathan Haughey Surveyor Chris Campbell Marketing Manager The Lisney Northern Ireland Commercial Property Report Q4 & Lisney Belfast lisney.com
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