Outline. Outline 2015/6/5

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1 1/6/ Climate-related Changes in Fish Species Composition including Chum Salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) in Northern Japanese Waters, Inferred from Archaeological Evidence Yukimasa Ishida *1, Akihiro Yamada 2 and Kazuya Nagasawa 3 1 National Research Institute of Far Seas Fisheries, Fisheries Research Agency 2 Miyagi Prefectural Research Institute of The Tagajo Site 3 Laboratory of Aquaculture, Graduate School of Biosphere Science, Hiroshima University Catch in river Catch in coast Release fry Year Chum salmon return in Japan //29 14/8/7 Chum salmon and Japanese amberjack were caught by the salmon set net in the Okhotsk Sea off Sarufutsu Village, Hokkaido in. Japanese amberjack Chum Salmon More than Pacific bluefin tuna were caught by set net in the Pacific Ocean off Shiranuka, Hokkaido, in

2 1/6/ Maine Fish Remains and Their Seawater Temperature Ranges Tohoku Kushiro North Pacific Ocean Satohama East Kushiro Shell Midden Satohama Shell Midden Fish Remains found at Nusamai No.3 Shell Midden in Kushiro Tunas Salmon Fat greenling Flathead grey mullet Western scorpionfish Sharks Puffers Picked dogfish From Kaneko (1999) 2

3 1/6/ Fish Remains found at Satohama Shell Midden in Miyagi Prefecture Japanese amberjack Japanese eel Chum salmon Japanese sardine Red seabream Japanese dace Snake Jack mackerel Japanese seabass Mackerel Skipjack tuna Table 1. Fish remains in the archeological site in the Kushiro River basin and the seawater temperatures related to fish distribution. '+++' and '++', '+' indicate the frequency of occurrence of fish remains. Site East Kushiro Shell Midden Nusamai No.3 Shell Midden Nusamai No.2 Shell Midden Seawater temperature Chronology Early Jomon Final Jomon Satsumon and Ainu related to distribution Year B.P. 7,- 4, 3,- 2,4 7- C Species Salmon shark Picked dogfish Herring or Sardine Rainbow smelt Chum salmon Pacific cod Japanese rockfish Fat greenling Japanese seabass Japanese amberjack Pacific bluefin tuna Swordfish Flathead grey mullet Bastard halibut Barfin flounder Japanese pufferfish References Kaneko (1968) Kaneko (1999) Kaneko (1999) Table 2. Fish remains in Satohama archeological site in Tohoku and the seawater temperatures related to fish distribution. Numbers indicate the frequency of occurrence of fish remains; '+' indicates fish remains were found, but in small numbers. Site Satoham Satoham Satoham Seawater temperature Chronology Early Jomon Middle Jomon Final Jomon related to distribution Year B.P. 7,-4, 4,-3, 3,-2,4 C Species Sharks Herring or Sardine Japanese anchovy Whitespotted conger Chum salmon + 2- Japanese halfbeak Flathead grey mullet + -3 Japanese seabass Japanese amberjack Japanese jack mackerel Red seabream Blackhead seabream 2-3 Multicolorfin rainbowfish Chub mackerel Pacific bluefin tuna Western scorpionfish Fat greenling Bartail flathead Barfin flounder Threadsail filefish Japanese pufferfish References Tohoku History Museum (1987) Fishes found in both Kushiro and Satohama Picked dogfish (Squalus acanthias) Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) Fat greenling (Hexagrammos otakii) Japanese seabass (Lateolabrax japonicus) Fishes found only in Kushiro Fishes found only in Satohama Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) Bartail flathead (Platycephalus indicus) Rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) Threadsail filefish (Stephanolepis cirrhifer) 3

4 1/6/ Conclusions and Measures Appendix Table 1-a. Distribution of seawater temperature (ST) related to fish remains and mean seawater temperature (MST) in the archeological site in the Kushiro River basin in the early Jomon period (7,-4, yr BP). Seawater Temperature (ST) (ºC) English name Salmon shark Picked dogfish Herring or Sardine Rainbow smelt Chum salmon Pacific cod Japanese rockfish Fat greenling Japanese seabass Japanese amberjack Pacific bluefin tuna Swordfish Flathead grey mullet Bastard halibut Barfin flounder Japanese pufferfish Frequency Frequency x ST (ºC) MST (ºC) 312/191 = Early Jomon in Kushiro MST=16.ºC Final Jomon in Kushiro MST=1.9ºC Satsumon & Ainu in Kushiro MST=1.1ºC Seawater Temperature (ºC) Mean Seawater Temperature (MST) (ºC) in Kushiro Early Jomon in Satohama MST=16.9 ºC Middle Jomon in Satohama MST=16.6ºC Final Jomon in Satohama MST=16.1ºC Seawater Temperature (ºC) Mean Seawater Temperature (MST) (ºC) in Satohama SST change in Kushiro MST in Kushiro MST in Satohama 16.9ºC 16.ºC.ºC MST in Satohama = -.3 x Year BP + 1. R² = ºC 16.1ºC 1.9ºC MST in Kushiro = -.3 x Year BP R² =.98 SST change in Kushiro = -.9 x Year BP R² = ºC Year BP Present==19 Early Jomon Middle Jomon Final Jomon Satsumon and Ainu 4

5 1/6/ SST off Kushiro increased.99 ºC in the th century and.4ºc increase from 19 to. SST off Tohoku increased.64ºc in the th century and.3ºc increase from 19 to. SST will increase 1.2ºC from to 6. 2.ºC 1.2ºC.4ºC 1 1.ºC 1.1ºC 1.6ºC 1.2ºC SST increase in Kushiro MST in Kushiro SST increase in Satohama MST in Satohama 1.9ºC 1.6ºC ºC.4ºC 1.6ºC 4.3ºC Changes in MST and SST increase in Kushiro and Satohama Conclusions From archeological evidence, chum salmon were found in MST lower than 16.ºC in Kushiro and 16.1ºC in Satohama. Using mean IPCC projection, MST will be 1.6ºC in Kushiro and 1.9ºC in Satohama in 6, so chum salmon will remain both in Hokkaido and Tohoku. But using maximum IPCC projection, MST will be 1.8ºC in Kushiro and 16.2ºC in Satohama in 6, so chum salmon will remain in Hokkaido but not in Tohoku. The fish composition in northern Japan is likely to change to the one observed after and during the final Jomon period.

6 1/6/ Corresponding Measures for Chum Salmon Enhancement of late run chum salmon stocks Promotion of feeding programs at salmon hatcheries Enhancement of naturally spawning chum salmon Corresponding Measures for Other Fish Species Utilization of new and unfamiliar fish species Adaptive fisheries management for each fish stock Protection of environments in coastal waters Control of chum salmon juvenile releases 6