RESEARCH AND CONSULTING DEPARTMENT September 2010 REAL ESTATE MARKET MONITORING

Transcription

1 RESEARCH AND CONSULTING DEPARTMENT September 2010 REAL ESTATE MARKET MONITORING

2 September 2010 Content 1. Residential real estate market Office market Retail market Hotels market Countryside real estate market All rights reserved. This report has been prepared for information purposes only. The data and information contained herein are the exclusive property of Blackwood Real Estate company. Reproduction of the report in total or in part is allowed only with a prior written permission of the Blackwood real estate company. Quoting is allowed with reference to the source.

3 RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET September 2010 Map 1.1. Moscow. CAD. New Elite Buildings. Volume and Structure The supply volume in the Moscow elite primary market amounted to approx 155 thous. sq. m. of residential space in 29 residential complexes in September The largest supply volume (more than 80%) could be found in such districts as Khamovniki, Tverskoy, Presnensky and Zamoskvorechie. As opposed to the primary economy-class market, where supply volume increased 50% in September versus the beginning of summer, the elite primary market saw no cardinal changes: the most liquid offers left the market gradually, some new buildings were off sale as before, new properties did not enter the market during September. September 2010, as it was expected, was characterized by the growth of buying activity as opposed to the summer months. In September the number of incoming requests to Blackwood for the purchase of apartments increased more than 80% versus August. 3

4 RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET September 2010 Map 1.2. Moscow. CAD. New Elite Buildings. Prices Graph 1.1. Dynamics of prices for elite residential space $ $23630 thou. rub ,1 thou. rub $ ,7 thou. rub Jan. 09 Fev.09 Mar.09 Apr.09 May 09 Jun. 09 Jul. 09 Aug.09 Sep.09 Oct. 09 Nov.09 Dec.09 Jan.10 Feb.10 Mar.10 Apr.10 May.10 Jun.10 Jul.10 Aug.10 Sep.10 primary market secondary market 400 Jan. 09 Fev.09 Mar.09 Apr.09 May 09 Jun. 09 Jul. 09 Aug.09 Sep.09 Oct. 09 Nov.09 Dec.09 Jan.10 Feb.10 Mar.10 Apr.10 May.10 Jun.10 Jul.10 Aug.10 Sep.10 primary market secondary market In September 2010 the average price for elite new buildings amounted to $ per sq. m. The most expensive new buildings in September were traditionally offered in Ostozhenka-Prechistenka ($ 24,830 per sq. m.), Presnensky district ($ 22,780 per sq. m.) and Yakimanka ($ 18,280 per sq. m.). The average price in the secondary elite market in September 2010 reached $ 23,630 per sq. m. The most expensive districts are Ostozhenka-Prechistenka ($29, 580 per sq. m.), Khamovniki ($ 26,100 per sq.m.) and Presnensky ($25, 740 per sq. m.). The first autumn month brought minor price growth in the elite prime market (+0,8%) versus August Thus, in September prices for apartments in Ostozhenka Park Palace were raised by 8% on average. There was either no price growth within the framework of other projects or minor growth only in some of them. 4

5 OFFICE MARKET September 2010 Map 2.1. Moscow. CAD. Supply volume and structure The main trends of the office market motion remain stable: gradual recovery of the market is still in progress, however, it takes place against the background of still negative tendencies. In September 2010 several lease and purchase deals in the office market were concluded (see the spreadsheet below), it was also reported about a forthcoming closing of another assets sale transaction: Domnikov BC is purchased by two companies 2/3 of the complex is acquired by affiliated with RR RWM- Capital managing company, and Rosbank plans to purchase remaining 26 thous. sq. m. A ceremonial opening of the first stage of Nagatino-i-land technopark which area amounts to 216 thous. sq. m. also took place in September Another positive piece of news was the announcement about the resumption of the active marketing campaign of the K2 Business-park project on the 2km of the Kaluzhskoe highway by its co-investors Marbleton Property Fund and Storm Properties. The beginning of the first stage construction of the project is planned for spring In all other respects the crisis trends still dominate the Moscow office market: thus, Horus Capital developer conducts negotiations with Otkritie FC about the sale of remaining five business-centers of the developer Fabrika Stanislavskogo, Gamma, Avion, Krugozor and Lefort, which are mortgaged to German Aarealbank (about $600 mln.). 5

6 OFFICE MARKET September 2010 Map 2.2. Moscow. Rental Rates *. Commissioned Properties. Announced Projects The trend of reorientation of new projects with a substantial reduction of the office component also remains relevant thus, in September it was reported about the reconception of one of the largest office complexes, planned for construction by MR Group developer BC at the Golovinskoe highway measuring 370 thous. sq. m. It was decided to change the operational purpose of the area within the framework of implementation of the first stage measuring 130 thous. sq. m., allocating 55 thous. sq. m. to the retail center. At the same time expected co-investors of the project, a subsidiary of LSR Group Mosstroyreconstructsiya and Central Properties quit the project. Spreadsheet. Some lease/purchase transactions in the office real estate market, September 2010 Buyer/Tenant Property name Leased/purchased Space Address Transaction Type «May» Office center sq. m Akademicheskaya metro station Purchase Diebold Self Services BC «Dvintsev» sq. m Bld.1, 12, Dvintsev str. Lease Bio-Rad Laboratories «Danilovskaya Manufactura», «Corpus Cnoppa» sq. m Bld.1B, 9 Varshavskoe highway Lease, 5 years Linxtelecom BC «8 Marta» 730 sq. m 8 Marta str. Lease, 5 years * - hereinafter the rental rates are indicated exclusive of VAT and OPEX 6

7 RETAIL MARKET September 2010 Map 3.1. Professional retail centers delivery, Moscow The opening of RIO retail-entertaining center in Reutov on the 2 nd km of MKAD took place in September. The developer of the property measuring 175,000 sq. m. (leasable area 90,000 sq. m.) is Tashir group of companies. The anchor tenants of REC are NASH Hypermarket hypermarket, Nash Dom household goods store, Eldorado household appliances and electronics store, Cinema Star multiplex cinema. The construction of exit from MKAD will contribute to the growth of attraction of this retail center among potential buyers (at the moment of launch, the entry is possible from Stroiteley str. in Reutov), before this construction the audience of the complex will consist of Reutov residents. Besides, in September after a period of long lull (the end of beginning of 2010), participants of the market began to announce new projects. Thus, in Q Waymart will become an outlet-center after reconstruction: the neighborhood with a larger REC Vegas forces the owner to reconsider the concept and attempt to get profit instead of invariable loss in a competitive struggle. New projects in the field of professional real estate were also announced in the regional cities: Bosco di Ciliegi group plans to locate retail center in Sochi in the historical building of Moscow railway station by analogy with GUM in Moscow. The property measuring 7,000 sq.m. will present premium and luxe-brands, which are included in the group. Permgrazhdanstroy company announced the implementation of a large multifunctional complex in Perm, which will include RC measuring 47,000 sq. m., as well as the hotel for 20 rooms and business-center measuring 22,000 sq. m. The implementation terms of the project in Sochi not earlier than the middle of 2011, Perm

8 RETAIL MARKET September 2010 Map 3.2. Moscow. Rental rates for retail space by administrative districts of Moscow In September street retail segment demonstrated the growth of activity after the period of summer lull: retail operators demand grew, negotiations and transactions resumed. However this recovery has led neither to considerable growth of rental rates, nor to the decrease of vacant space level yet the market will require more time for this. Nevertheless, the market revival makes it possible to assume that the growth of rental rates, which could be observed already in H1 2010, will continue. Depending on the prestige value of retail corridor and its demand among other retail operators, 15-20% indicator may be expected on the whole by the results of the year versus the end of 2009 for the most prestigious streets and 10-15% - for other traditional retail corridors. 8

9 HOTEL MARKET September 2010 Map 4.1. Moscow. Hotel market structure In September the most important events took place in regional cities: the opening of two hotels under international operator Rezidor Hotel Group management was held: in Kaliningrad (Radisson, 178 rooms) and St.-Petersburg (Park Inn, 270 rooms). Consequently they expand their presence by 448 rooms, Rezidor Hotel Group preserves its first place in the Russian market by the number of rooms under its management with the indicator of more than 5700 rooms. In Kaliningrad the opened hotel is in the structure of multifunctional complex Clover that is why it is possible to assume that it is meant mainly for business tourists as well as for the MICE-services provision. Foreign tourists may compose an additional client group from European countries. Heliopark is present in Kaliningrad among chain hotels besides Radisson. In St.-Petersburg a new hotel Park Inn is meant mainly for tourists, who visit the city to rest: central location together with prices for accommodation, which are at the average level for the hotels of the similar positioning, make it possible to attract both Russian and foreign tourists. 9

10 HOTEL MARKET September 2010 Map 4.2. New hotel projects in regional cities. In September three hotel projects in regional cities of Russia were announced, and involvement of international hotel operators is planned for two of them. Thus, in Osnova GC plans to launch 3* hotel for rooms in Voronezh. Currently, there is no information about the involvement of international managing company in the project. At the end of 2013 the opening of the Sheraton hotel for 250 rooms in the structure of a multifunctional complex is planned in Perm, which is implemented by PermGrazhdanStroy company. Currently preproject works and the project implementation stages coordination are in process. The total volume of investments in the MFC project is estimated at 6 bln. dollars, retail and business centers will be included in it apart from the hotel. The hotel will be meant mainly for business-tourists. The Radisson hotel for 230 rooms opening is planned for 2014 in Zavidovo (Tverskaya oblast). Earlier, in 2012 a golf field will be opened on the land plot, located near the future hotel. Thus, the appearance of new announced projects is evident of the fact that despite the difficulties of the crisis period, both Russian and international companies appreciate regional cities potential highly from the hotel real estate development point of view. 10

11 COUNTRYSIDE REAL ESTATE MARKET September 2010 Map 5.1. Moscow Region. Delivered countryside projects In September 2010 the delivery of new countryside settlements continued in the Moscow Region countryside real estate market. In addition to it, a number of development companies announced their future plans on countryside projects implementation. Podmoskovie development company began the implementation of a business segment new countryside settlement Medvedevo within 29 km of MKAD along Kaluzhskoe direction. 190 land plots without compulsory building contract measuring from 10 to 30 sotkas are offered for sale within the framework of this project. Vector Investment company announced the beginning of 3 Land Park format projects implementation Kurtnikovo, Bolshoe Ushakovo and Nikitskoe. Land plots measuring from 1ha are offered for sale within the framework of the projects, meant for building and sale to private investors, as well as for individual development. Besides, Monomah company plans to begin the implementation of 2 new dacha settlements measuring 16 and 20 ha in the short term. They will be located in 64 km from MKAD along the Gorkovskoe highway and in 114 km from MKAD along the Minskoe highway. 11

12 COUNTRYSIDE REAL ESTATE MARKET September 2010 Map 5.2. Moscow Region. Organized countryside settlements. Prices In September 2010 the average price level for the Moscow Region countryside residential properties remained stable. However, some 5-15% price growth was recorded in several properties close to completion. In addition to it, potential buyers activity growth and demand recovery for the projects with more considered concept, which offer for sale either ready cottages or plots with building contracts, were noticed. It should be noticed that the Moscow Region countryside real estate market leaves the post-crisis stagnation, which has been observed in the market from the beginning of 2010, gradually. Provided that there are no new financial shocks, many players of the market expect the growth of high-budget projects share in the total supply volume, the reduction of delivery paces of projects, which offer land plots without compulsory building contracts for sale, as well as increase of investment buyers share in the short term. As for prices growth in the countryside market of Moscow Region, positive dynamics may be expected by the end of 2010 only for properties, which are close to completion. 12