WP3 - The airport of the future as an essential link of French and Portuguese transport networks

Transcription

1 EUROPEAN ORGANISATION FOR THE SAFETY OF AIR NAVIGATION WP3 - The airport of the future as an essential link of French and Portuguese transport networks Final version CARE II: The airport of the future: Central link of intermodal transport? Contract N C/1.102/CEE/EC/04 Version : 1.0 Edition Date : 01/28/2005 Reference : M3S/ATM/CARE-AIRCIT/EEC/WP3/1.0 File name : WP3 1.0.doc Status : Final Class : Restricted European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation This document is published by EUROCONTROL in the interests of the exchange of information. It may be copied in whole or in part, providing that this copyright notice and disclaimer are included. The information contained in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTROL. EUROCONTROL makes no warranty, either implied or express, for the information contained in this document, neither does it assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of this information.

2 Document Change Record The following table records the complete history of the successive editions of the present document. Version Date Reason for Change Sections / Pages Affected 0.a 04/10/2004 Draft 0.b 08/12/2004 French current and future situation Section 2.1 Section 2.2 Section Section c 13/12/2004 draft All sections 0.d 20/12/2004 Portuguese sections Section 3 0.e 22/12/2004 Comparison of scenarios Concluding remarks Section 4 Section 5 0.f 24/12/2004 Orthographic corrections All section 0.g 06/01/2005 Portuguese traffic statistics Section /02/2005 Changes in relation to comments made on the report by the steering group Adding of statistics on freight traffic in Portugal All sections Section M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page II

3 Table of Contents DOCUMENT CHANGE RECORD... II TABLE OF CONTENTS...III EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... V ACRONYMS...VI LIST OF FIGURES... VII LIST OF TABLES...VIII 1 INTRODUCTION SCOPE OF THE STUDY SCOPE OF THE DOCUMENT REFERENCES APPLICATION OF WP2 SCENARIOS TO THE FRENCH CASE GENERAL CONTEXT Transport infrastructure Traffic by transport mode CURRENT INTERMODAL TRANSPORT SITUATION Roissy Charles de Gaulle airport Lyon Saint-Exupery airport FUTURE POSSIBLE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE New potential airports New potential airport rail access New potential high speed rail links to airports FRENCH SCENARIOS Scenario A Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C APPLICATION OF WP2 SCENARIOS TO THE PORTUGUESE CASE CURRENT TRANSPORT SITUATION Transport infrastructure Traffic by transport mode FUTURE POTENTIAL TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE HSR network Lisbon metro Porto metro PORTUGUESE SCENARIOS Scenario A Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C COMPARISON OF FRENCH AND PORTUGUESE SCENARIOS M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page III

4 5 CONCLUDING REMARKS M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page IV

5 Executive Summary The study The airport of the future: central link of intermodal transport? aims at analysing what could be the role of intermodal transport or intermodality between air and the other transport modes for the airport of the future; by elaborating European scenarios of transport network evolution by putting more focus on French and Portuguese ones, and identifying the social costs and revenues relative to these scenarios. The Work-Package 3 aims at applying the years time horizon European scenarios elaborated in WP2 to the French and Portuguese cases. These two countries which by their difference in the current intermodality development can be considered as representing the situation in Core European countries for France and less developed or new European countries for Portugal. Indeed Portugal does not have yet intermodal infrastructure but plans to integrate Porto airport in the future high-speed rail network. France, which already has intermodal infrastructure, also plans to improve the integration of airports in the high-speed rail network and the airport access by dedicated rail links. Nevertheless, the applications of scenarios lead to the conclusion that despite the difference of current state of intermodality in both countries, building new infrastructure could not be sufficient for developing airport intermodality. If as a base for intermodal development, intermodal infrastructure has to be built, the future of airport intermodality should also be largely impacted by the market conditions (economic environment but also competition levels on the transport market), as well as the air capacity constraints and transport policies. The association of some conditions could promote the development of intermodal agreements between transport operators while other conditions could impede it. This work-package enables to conclude that the influence of intermodality development on air traffic flows can be managed by understanding of the complex relationships between factors and by triggering adequate incentives. If the current study has elaborated a methodology to support a qualitative analysis, a new study could be performed allowing implementing the methodology and deriving quantitative indicators in order to provide strategic guidelines for developing intermodality so as to alleviate air congestion. M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page V

6 Acronyms AEEL ANA ASK ATC ATM CARE CDG ENAC FSC GDP GNI HSR HST IATA LCC RFF SNCF TGV WP Aviation Economics and Econometrics Laboratory Aeroportos de Portugal, SA Available Seat Km Air Traffic Control Air Traffic Management Co-operative Actions of R&D in EUROCONTROL Charles de Gaulle Ecole Nationale de l Aviation Civile Full Service Carrier Gross Domestic Product Gross National Income High Speed Rail High Speed Train International Air transport Association Low Cost Carrier Reseau Ferré de France Société Nationale des Chemins de Fer Train à Grande Vitesse Work-Package M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page VI

7 List of figures Figure 1: Transport infrastructure length per inhabitant Figure 2: Main commercial exchanges between Union European states in Figure 3: Modal distribution of travellers by state in 2000 (% of Passengers-Kilometres) Figure 4: Modal distribution of freight transport by state in 2000 (% of Tons-Kilometres) Figure 5: Share of TGV traffic in the total French rail traffic Figure 6: Evolution of TGV traffic in millions of passengers Figure 7: Evolution of rail freight traffic between 1978 and Figure 8: Traffic or French airports from 1980 to 2003 (in millions of passengers) Figure 9: French air traffic in 2003 (in millions of passengers) Figure 10: Evolution of Low-Cost airlines traffic in France Figure 11: TGV network Figure 12 : TGV Station in Roissy Charles de Gaulle airport Figure 13: Rail modal share according to the TGV journey time Figure 14: Lyon-Saint-Exupery airport and TGV station Figure 15: Notre-Dame-des-Landes airport location Figure 16: Future site of Notre-Dame-des-Landes airport Figure 17: Forecasts of passenger traffic at Toulouse Blagnac airport Figure 18: New airport locations analysed for the future Toulouse airport Figure 19: Modal share of transports for CDG airport access Figure 20: CDG Express layout Figure 21: LESLYS and LEA Layout Figure 22: Examples of Leslys trains Figure 23: European Eastern TGV Figure 24: TGV Ouest possible layout Figure 25: Bordeaux-Toulouse-Narbonne TGV link Figure 26: TGV Rhin-Rhone layout Figure 27: SNCF proposition for TGV interconnection at Paris Orly airport Figure 28: Portuguese map Figure 29: Portuguese airports managed by ANA Figure 30 - Lisbon airport road access Figure 31: Average free-flow driving times from Faro airport Figure 32: Portugal rail network Figure 33: Portugal rail links managed by CP company Figure 34: Rail links managed by CP company in Europe Figure 35: Lisbon metro map Figure 36: Lisbon metro length and number of stations Figure 37: Porto metro trains Figure 38: Porto metro map Figure 39: Transport modal share in Portugal Figure 40: Freight transport modal share in Portugal Figure 41: Freight traffic volume by transport mode and geographic area of origin/destination Figure 42: Average value (in 1000 /Ton) of imported and exported merchandise Figure 43: Freight value by transport mode and geographic area of origin/destination Figure 44: HSR network in Figure 45: Evolution or Portugal GDP growth rate M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page VII

8 List of tables Table 1: Economy and demography in main European countries Table 2: Evolution of freight rail market share from 1984 to 2000 in percentage Table 3: Transport infrastructure built in scenario A Table 4: Development of intermodal agreements in scenario A Table 5: Transport infrastructure built in scenario A Table 6: Development of intermodal agreements in scenario A Table 7: Transport infrastructure built in scenario B Table 8: Development of intermodal agreements in scenario B Table 9: Transport infrastructure built in scenario C Table 10: Development of intermodal agreements in scenario C Table 11: Lisbon airport traffic in Table 12: Oporto airport traffic in Table 13: Faro airport traffic in Table 14: Merchandise Export by transport mode Table 15: Merchandise - Import by transport mode Table 16: International freight transport Exit by transport mode and geographic area of destination55 Table 17: International freight transport Entrance by transport mode and geographic area of origin 55 Table 18 Portugal collective road transport passengers Table 19 Portugal domestic freight transport Table 20 Portugal European road freight transport Table 21 Average trip distance for intraeuropean Portuguese freight Table 22 Portuguese rail passengers Table 23 - Portuguese rail freight transport Table 24: Lisbon airport air traffic forecasts Table 25: Oporto airport air traffic forecasts Table 26: Faro airport air traffic forecasts Table 27: Average value of exported merchandise, by transport mode (1000 /Ton) Table 28: Average value of imported merchandise by transport mode (1000 /Ton) Table 29: Average value of imported+exported merchandise, by transport mode (1000 /Ton) Table 30: Main products carried by air Table 31: Transport infrastructure built in scenario A Table 32: Development of intermodal agreements in scenario A Table 33: Transport infrastructure built in scenario A Table 34: Development of intermodal agreements in scenario A Table 35: Transport infrastructure built in scenario B Table 36: Development of intermodal agreements in scenario B Table 37: Transport infrastructure built in scenario C Table 38: Development of intermodal agreements in scenario C Table 39: French transport infrastructure by scenario Table 40: Portuguese transport infrastructure by scenario Table 41: Development of intermodal agreements by scenario M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page VIII

9 1 Introduction 1.1 Scope of the study In a context of a fast evolution of the air transport market, the future of the Air traffic Management will not only be linked to the improvements in technologies, but also to the evolution of traffic flows. Despite the current difficulties in air transport, forecasts still mention strong traffic increases for years to come. One of the main solutions chosen by the European Commission for coping with airport congestion problem and transports pollution is to develop intermodal transports to air. This development is an important objective of the European Commission since Intermodality and multimodality are at the heart of the 2001 European Commission white papers on transport [Ref 14]. One of the main priority objectives to be attained by 2010 is to link-up transport modes for successful intermodality. The first question what comes to mind is to know what is exactly intermodality? What is its development today? More important what are the perspectives of intermodality tomorrow in terms of airport development and what would be its influence on air traffic levels and distribution? The study The airport of the future: central link of intermodal transport? aims at providing answers to some of these questions when considering the global transport network. This constitutes an innovative aspect since the evolution of each transport mode was so far envisaged without taking necessarily into account the evolution of the other modes, and ignoring the possibility that the modes could be cooperative instead of being competitive only. An other innovative aspect of this study lies in the analysis of intermodal transport as a way to tackle what could be the airport of the future; it also considers the intermodality between all the possible transport modes. Intermodality is the characteristic of a transport network, which allows the use of at least two different transport modes for at least one single trip from origin destination. In literature, the term intermodal transport applied to passengers using successively air and other transport modes is used equally for the airport access to the city centre or for the integration of the airport in the regional or national network of other transport modes. As the implications of both types of airport intermodality are different in terms of investment, passenger needs, operators coordination, transport policies, etc., we have chosen in this study to differentiate between them. In the case of airport access, the relevant modes to study are all public modes. In the case of integration of the airport in the regional or national network, only rail is relevant (and particularly high speed train), since bus services on long distances are quite rare in Europe, and do not seem to become more prominent in the future. Conversely, air rail intermodality seems to offer promising opportunities for the future. The objective of the study is therefore to elaborate European scenarios of transport network evolution by putting more focus on French and Portuguese ones, and to identify the impacts of these scenarios in terms of development of intermodality. 1.2 Scope of the document The objective of this work package is to apply the scenarios of transport evolution in the next years elaborated in Work-Package 2 to the French and Portuguese cases. If France and Portugal scenarios are analysed in the two first chapters, the third chapter aims at comparing the scenarios for both countries. After presenting the current and future intermodal transport situation in France, Chapter 2 applies the scenarios elaborated in WP2 to the French situation. The same decomposition is applied to Chapter 3. While Chapter 4 compares the scenarios results of both countries, Chapter 5 presents the concluding M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 9

10 remarks. 1.3 References [Ref 1] ADP «Etude de developpement de l aérodrome Muret-Lherm», 2002 [Ref 2] ADP, SETEC «Nouvelle plate-forme aéroportuaire en région toulousaine», 2002 [Ref 3] ASSEMBLEE NATIONALE «Avenir du transport aérien français et de la politique aéroportuaire», Information report from the Commission des Affaires Economiques, de l Environnement et du Territoire, July 2003 [Ref 4] BESIX, SNCF «TGV est européen une offre qui devient réalité», 2004 [Ref 5] [Ref 6] [Ref 7] BIPE «Etude pour la mise en œuvre d un nouvel aéroport international dans le grand Sud- Ouest», 2002 CHAMBRE DE COMMERCE ET D INDUSTRIE DE TOULOUSE «Aéroport international de Toulouse Blagnac», 2003 COMITE INTERMINISTERIEL D AMENAGEMENT ET DE DEVELOPPEMENT DU TERRITOIRE «CIADT : 50 projets pour la France en Europe», December 2003 [Ref 8] COMITE DE PILOTAGE «Projet d aéroport de Notre-Dame-des-Landes», 17 November 2003 [Ref 9] COMMISSION NATIONALE DES DEBATS PUBLIQUES «Débat publique sur le projet d aéroport de Notre-Dame-des-Landes», May 2003 [Ref 10] DATAR France en Europe: Quelle ambition pour la politique des transports?, Etude prospective de la DATAR, 2003 [Ref 11] DIRECTION DES TRANSPORTS AERIENS «La note de synthèse et d actualité N 17», Direction Générale de l Aviation Civile, February 2004 [Ref 12] DIRECTION DES TRANSPORTS AERIENS «Bulletin statistique trafic commercial, année 2003», Direction Générale de l Aviation Civile, Sous direction des études économiques et de la propspective, April 2004 [Ref 13] DRE MIDI-PYRENEES Avenir de la plate-forme aérienne régionale de Toulouse. Mise à disposition du public des études péliminaires», December 2003 [Ref 14] EUROPEAN COMMISSION White Paper, European transport policy for 2010: time to decide European Communities, 2001 [Ref 15] GROUPE DE TRAVAIL GUYARD Multimodalité Avion-TGV», July 2004 [Ref 16] HAENEL H., GERBAUD F. «Fret ferroviaire français: la nouvelle bataille du rail», February 2003 [Ref 17] IENAIR, SETEC Etude de complémentarité entre l aéroport de Toulouse Blagnac et les plate-forme de la région Midi-Pyrénées», et de départements limitrophes», 2002 [Ref 18] IMTRANS Impact d une modification de l offre ferroviaire sur le trafic aérien de l aéroport de Toulouse Blagnac», 2202 [Ref 19] MAIRIE DE TOULOUSE TGV: Toulouse, Capitole Info N 5, 2003 [Ref 20] M3 SYSTEMS, ANA, ENAC-AEEL WP1 - Review of the current intermodality situation, EUROCONTROL CARE INO project: The airport of the future: Central link of intermodal transport?, October 2004 M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 10

11 [Ref 21] [Ref 22] [Ref 23] [Ref 24] M3 SYSTEMS, ANA, ENAC-AEEL WP2 - Scenarios of future evolution of the European transport network, EUROCONTROL CARE INO project: The airport of the future: Central link of intermodal transport?, November 2004 OUEST France «Dossier : un aéroport international à Notre-Dame-des-Landes?», 2002 SANATERRA Recherche d alternatives à la création d un troisième aéroport parisien», Etude MVA Ltd, October 2002 SNCF «Orientations communautaires pour le developpement du reseau Trans Européen de Transport position de la SNCF», SNCF S/DAE, 11 September 2003 M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 11

12 2 Application of WP2 scenarios to the French case 2.1 General context Transport infrastructure Due to its demographic and economic weight, France is with Germany one of the main countries of Western Europe. DATAR [Ref 10] on page 15, stresses that this weight should remain important in the future. Indeed as opposed to the German, Italian and Spanish population, French population is forecasted to increase by 2030 (Table 1: Economy and demography in main European countries). GDP billions 1999 GDP per capita (UE=100) Unemployment rate 2000 (%) % Employment agriculture % Employment industry % Employment services % Urban population Population 1999 (in millions) Population 2030 (in millions) Population density (inhabitant/km²) Belgium Denmark Spain France Italy Netherlands United- Kingdom UE Table 1: Economy and demography in main European countries (Source DATAR [Ref 10]) Despite its increasing population level, France is one of the less dense European countries with only 109 inhabitants per Km². The low population density has lead France to build a transport infrastructure length by inhabitant higher than more dense states (such as Netherlands or United-Kingdom) (Figure 1: Transport infrastructure length per inhabitant). M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 12

13 Figure 1: Transport infrastructure length per inhabitant (Source DATAR [Ref 10]) Compared to other European states, the French road and rail infrastructure length per inhabitant are respectively 20% and 50% higher than the European average Traffic by transport mode Road transport Due to its geographic position and to its economic and demographic weight in Europe, France is at the heart of European commercial exchanges (Figure 2: Main commercial exchanges between Union European states in 1997) and plays a central role in European traffic flows. M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 13

14 Figure 2: Main commercial exchanges between Union European states in 1997 (Source DATAR [Ref 10]) For freight as well as for passenger transport, road transport is the main transport mode used in France. Indeed more than 75% of the freight and passenger traffic in France is operated by road (Figure 3: Modal distribution of travellers by state in 2000 (% of Passengers-Kilometres)). Indeed France is characterised by a strong use of personal cars and a strong use of truck for freight transport. M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 14

15 Figure 3: Modal distribution of travellers by state in 2000 (% of Passengers-Kilometres) (Source DATAR [Ref 10]) Figure 4: Modal distribution of freight transport by state in 2000 (% of Tons-Kilometres) (Source DATAR [Ref 10]) Rail transport France is one of the European states using rail the most for passenger transport, especially high-speed train. Indeed, the French high-rail traffic represented in % of the total French rail traffic M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 15

16 (Figure 5: Share of TGV traffic in the total French rail traffic) and 60% of the total European highspeed rail traffic (Source Groupe de travail GUYARD [Ref 15]). Figure 5: Share of TGV traffic in the total French rail traffic (Source SNCF) Since the first implementation of high-speed train between Paris and Lyon in 1981, the TGV has been a big commercial success. The opening of other TGV links such as TGV Atlantique, TGV Nord, TGV Rhone-Alpes and TGV Méditérannée have led to a strong TGV traffic increase in 20 years (Figure 6: Evolution of TGV traffic in millions of passengers). Figure 6: Evolution of TGV traffic in millions of passengers (Source Groupe de travail GUYARD [Ref 15]) On the same time, freight transport by train did not benefit from the same increasing demand than passenger transport. Indeed from 1970, European rail freight traffic has strongly decreased. The European modal share of rail for freight transport has decreased from 29% in 1970 to only 14% in 2000 (Source Haenel, Gerbaud [Ref 16]). This trend is particularly marked in France where this modal share decreased from 46% in 1974 to 20% in 2000 (Source Haenel, Gerbaud [Ref 16]). Freight rail M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 16

17 does not manage to stabilize neither in terms of traffic volume (Figure 7: Evolution of rail freight traffic between 1978 and 200) nor in terms of market share (Table 2: Evolution of freight rail market share from 1984 to 2000 in percentage). Figure 7: Evolution of rail freight traffic between 1978 and 2002 (source: Haenel, Gerbaud [Ref 16]) Table 2: Evolution of freight rail market share from 1984 to 2000 in percentage (source: Haenel, Gerbaud [Ref 16]) If the freight rail traffic increased from 1993 allowing reaching the 1990 traffic level in 2001, this increasing trend was not confirmed in This bad result of freight transport by rail is due to the large gap existing between the needs of freight companies and the performance offered by rail operators. In particular, although punctuality is the main quality required by freight companies when using rail transport mode, in 2002 only 80% of the trains arrived less than 30 minutes late (Source Haenel, Gerbaud [Ref 16]). When facing the strong competition of road transport with low prices for freight transport, the rail transport was not able to quickly react, and adapt its supply to the demand. This lack of reactivity was mainly due to the absence of technologic revolution for freight rail while the TGV revolutionized the passenger transport market Air transport If the modal share of air transport is still low in terms of passengers-kilometres (less than 5%) (Figure 3: Modal distribution of travellers by state in 2000 (% of Passengers-Kilometres)), air traffic has increased very strongly since The number of air passenger has increased by 162% in 20 years (Source Groupe de travail GUYARD [Ref 15]). The higher level of traffic in Paris airports compared to regional airports (Figure 8: Traffic or French airports from 1980 to 2003 (in millions of passengers)) can be partly explained by the choice Air France to organise its hub at Paris Charles de Gaulle (CDG) airport. M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 17

18 Figure 8: Traffic or French airports from 1980 to 2003 (in millions of passengers) (Source Groupe de travail GUYARD [Ref 15]) This hub organisation has indeed led to an increase in the number of transit passengers. In 2003, 32% of the total number of Paris CDG passengers was transit passengers (Source Groupe de travail GUYARD [Ref 15]). Among these transit passengers, 73% travel to (and from) a long-haul destination, their (departure or arrival airport) being in France for 30%, in Europe for 50% and outside Europe for 20%. Besides this national hub, Air France has also developed regional hubs at Lyon Saint-Exupery and Clermont-Ferrand airports operated by two Air France s subsidiaries, Britair and Regional airlines respectively. All a whole, the French airport traffic in 2003 was of 99.5 millions of passengers (source Direction des Transports aériens [Ref 11]) among which 46% travelled inside Europe, 29% performed international flights and 24% national flights. F re n c h a ir tra ffic in (in m illio n s o f p a s s e n g e rs ) International Intra-E uropean except E U15 Intra-E uropean E U15 National M illio n s o f p a sse n g e rs Figure 9: French air traffic in 2003 (in millions of passengers) M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 18

19 (Source Groupe de travail GUYARD [Ref 15]) Among these 99.5 millions of passengers, 41 millions (i.e. 41%) (Source Direction des Transports Aériens [Ref 12]) were transported by Air France and its filial, which shows the dominant market position of the company. This high share of intra-european and International flights has mainly been favoured by the air transport liberalization started in 1987 and completed in 1997 for intra-european Community flights. One of the main impacts of this liberalization process has been the birth and development of so-called Low-Cost airlines. These companies operate scheduled short haul flights between European cities, on rather dense traffic routes, from secondary airports. They have a limited on-board service, sell their tickets through the Internet and have high aircraft utilization with only one (or two) types of planes in their fleet. All these characteristics concur to enable them to have low costs. Since their first arrival on the French air transport market in 1996, Low-Cost airlines have strongly increased their market shares. In particular, their market share on flights between France and other European countries has been multiplied by 6 between 1999 and 2003, representing 18% in 2003 (Figure 10: Evolution of Low-Cost airlines traffic in France). Figure 10: Evolution of Low-Cost airlines traffic in France (Source Groupe de travail GUYARD [Ref 15]) 2.2 Current intermodal transport situation If most of the French airports have connection to bus links, few of them have rail connections (see Work-package 1 [Ref 20]): Orly airport with the Orlyval M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 19

20 Nice Cote d Azur airport with a connection to regional trains Roissy-Charles de Gaulle with RER B and TGV Lyon Saint-Exupery airport with TGV The TGV is France's train à grande vitesse; literally "high-speed train" which has been developed and operated by SNCF, the French national railway company. Two French airports are connected to the TGV network: Saint Exupery airport in Lyon and Roissy Charles de Gaulle (CDG) airport in Paris. More than 50 trains leave CDG airport to 28 French cities, London and Brussels. For instance passengers can join directly CDG airport by rail from Lille in 55 min, from Lyon in 2h05 and from Brussels in 1h40. At the same time, 40 trains leave Lyon Saint Exupery airport to 18 French cities (for instance Paris in 1h52, Marseille in 1h30) and to Milan (in 5 hours). Figure 11: TGV network (Source SNCF) Roissy Charles de Gaulle airport In addition to its situation of Air France s hub, Paris Charles de Gaulle airport (CDG) appears as the hub of French transport network. It is linked with major French cities by two air-rail links with central Paris by Line B of the Réseau Express Régional (Regional Express Network) run jointly by French National Railways (SNCF) and Régie autonome des transports parisiens (RATP), and with other major cities by SNCF's high-speed TGV lines. The airport station forms a high-speed bypass, connecting TGV Nord-Europe (for Brussels, London and northern France) and TGV Sud-Est (for Lyon, Grenoble and the Alps, Avignon, Marseille, Montpellier, etc.). The line is also connected to the M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 20

21 TGV Atlantique (for Tours, Rennes, Nantes, and Bordeaux. The TGV connection has then greatly enhanced the airport's role as a major hub by cutting journey times to other cities, and has increased CDG airport s catchments area. Figure 12 : TGV Station in Roissy Charles de Gaulle airport The Air France s hub existence associated to the TGV daily frequencies increase implemented by the SNCF on TGV Nord, TGV Ouest and TGV Sud-Ouest has allowed a significant growth in the number of passengers using successively TGV and aircraft at CDG airport. This number has indeed increased by 78% between 1999 and 2002, for reaching 1.6 millions of passengers in 2002 (Source Groupe de travail GUYARD [Ref 15]). When adding the other passengers using other Paris railway station and RER B for acceding CDG airport, 2.4 millions of passengers have used the train for their transport to and from CDG airport and can be considered as intermodal passengers. It is however important to note that the high increase in the number of passengers using TGV for joining CDG airport is not always due to passengers preferences for the train transport mode compared to the air transport mode. Indeed, among the 1.6 millions passengers using TGV, only 35% (Source Groupe de travail GUYARD [Ref 15]) can be considered as having the choice between air and rail transport modes for their transport to and from the airport. The strong proportion of passengers not having the choice between air and rail modes for their transport to and from CDG airport have been favoured by the lack of air transport competitiveness compared to rail transport on short distances. Neither the improvement of air transport quality nor the decrease in air transport prices has prevented a transport demand transfer from aircraft to TGV. Indeed, the modal share between air and TGV transport modes estimated by the SNCF on 2002 data and presented by Groupe de travail GUYARD [Ref 15], shows that if the TGV journey time does not exceed 2 hours the TGV market share is at least 90% (this share decreasing to 60% if the journey time is between 2 and 3 hours) (Figure 13: Rail modal share according to the TGV journey time). M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 21

22 Figure 13: Rail modal share according to the TGV journey time (Source Groupe de travail GUYARD [Ref 15]) As a consequence, the strong market share of TGV for a journey time less than 2 hours can lead aircraft operators to stop operating on this destination and can consider TGV as a feeder for other flights. This feeding can then be organised by passengers themselves when buying separately TGV and airline tickets or be organised by airlines when they conclude intermodal agreements with the rail operator. This last solution has been chosen by Air France in the framework of TGV Air and of agreements with Thalys international: TGV Air: In 1994, the TGV link between Lille and CDG airport developed an important market for rail. Air France and SNCF decided then to launch a first common experience on this destination: the TGV AIR. This agreement holds that the transporting of international passengers between Lille and CDG is made by TGV. This organized bimodality does not concern the luggage check-in but allows passengers to buy tickets grouping international flights preceding or following TGV journeys. The TGV journey has a flight number and appears in the air reservation system. The TGV AIR product is therefore distributed and commercialised by Air France and by all travel agencies in the world. This TGV air agreement has been extended to other TGV links: Lyon Part-Dieu, Saint Pierre des Corps, Nantes, Angers, Le Mans, Poitiers and Bordeaux. The ticket is composed of at least two coupons: one for the TGV journey, one other for the international flight. Passenger has first to go to a SNCF ticket office to exchange this coupon with a SNCF transport ticket and are asked to come at least 20 min before the TGV departure for proceeding to this exchange. Nevertheless this check in does not concern the luggage check-in, which has to be made at the airport. If the TGV AIR product increases the time spent in the TGV station and do not facilitates the checkin, it presents the advantage that the passenger is insured to go to the final destination in case of problem. SNCF and Air France have a replacement agreement linking them in case of disruption. Passengers can take an other flight or TGV in case of delays and are eventually accommodated. Thalys International agreement: This agreement signed in 2001, holds that Air France stops operating flights between CDG and Brussels and that all Air France passengers are transported from Brussels to CDG via Thalys International trains. On the other hand, Thalys International undertakes to reserve at least one carriage to Air France passengers and to increase its train frequencies. This agreement differs from the TGV AIR agreement since travellers are welcomed on the Brussels station platform by Air France personnel and check-in in Brussels station for the whole journey (train+aircraft). Luggage is weighted and labelled in Brussels and luggage handlers help to get it on the train in a reserved emplacement but passengers have M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 22

23 to carry it between the train and the airport check-in. However, Air France is not the only airline having concluded intermodal agreements with rail operators. Indeed airlines not operating on French national servicing have considered that the TGV could be a good opportunity to feed their flights at CDG airport with passengers coming from French regions. These airlines look for a maximal cooperation with rail operators in order to maximise their access to French province. That is why the reason why, SNCF has TGV AIR agreements with United Airlines, American Airlines and Lufthansa, while Thalys International has bimodal agreements with American Airlines, Lufthansa, and SN Brussels airlines Lyon Saint-Exupery airport Since the TGV station built at Lyon Saint-Exupery airport in 1994, the TGV traffic is remained low. In 2002 this rail station traffic was passengers whose were intermodal passengers. Hence, only 0.8% of Lyon airport passengers have used TGV for accessing the airport (Source SANATERRA [Ref 23]). DATAR [Ref 10]explains this low number of intermodal passengers by the lack in intermodal services. Indeed, DATAR [Ref 10] underlines a basic coordination level between air and rail operators by quoting the example of a unique daily TGV between Marseille and Lyon airport preventing from a possible cooperation between modes. As well DATAR [Ref 10] than SANATERRA [Ref 23] underline that if the improvement of the intermodality level at Lyon Saint-Exupery airport requires a good implications of transport operators, the building of complementary infrastructures could also facilitate it. Figure 14: Lyon-Saint-Exupery airport and TGV station Nevertheless this low motivation to cooperate can be explained by the fact that Lyon Saint-Exupery airport is not a national hub. Indeed, the Groupe de travail GUYARD [Ref 15] explains that the main conditions for developing significantly intermodality between air and high-speed rail on a specific airport would this airport to be a powerful and attractive hub, with numerous long-haul destinations. This would indeed justify the existence of numerous and dense feeding links allowing to make profitable the TGV stop at the airport. M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 23

24 2.3 Future possible transport infrastructure In agreement with the European Commission, which considers that, a main priority is to link-up transport modes for successful intermodality by 2010, France plans to invest on air/rail intermodal infrastructure by the next 20 years. This project concerns the improvement of airport access by rail as well as the improvement of airport integration in the TGV network. Hence both new airports building projects at Notre-Dame-des-Landes and Toulouse are studied when taking into account the possibility integrate them in the TGV network New potential airports Notre-Dame-des-Landes When considering the traffic forecasts, Nantes-Atlantic airport should be saturated by 10 years with 1 millions of additional passengers. The Notre-Dame-des-Landes site, which was already evoked 30 years ago for welcoming the «Grand-Ouest» airport, has then be reconsidered by French authorities. Figure 15: Notre-Dame-des-Landes airport location (Source Ouest France [Ref 22]) This site located between Nantes and Rennes was indeed considered as being excellent and rare by the Conseil économique et social de la Région Pays de la Loire in This site indeed offers a 7 km area without major constraint and is considered as being favourable to the building of a very large airport. The possibility of integrating it in the road as well as the rail network would facilitate its access. Indeed, the site location close to the express roads Nantes/Rennes and Nantes/Vannes would allow planning a link between these two express roads for accessing the airport. In addition the Notre-Dame-des-Landes airport would take advantage of a larger catchments area that the Nantes-Atlantiques airport allowed by the highway network enlargement planned at a 2015 horizon. Population of cities such as Rennes, Vannes, Angers, Lorient and Laval would be closer to the new airport than to the current one. Figure 16: Future site of Notre-Dame-des-Landes airport M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 24

25 This future Grand-Ouest airport would have two parallel runways oriented east/west, sufficiently large for being used by very large aircraft. The total estimated cost of the project is 450 millions euros. This budget does not take into account the potential airport integration in the TGV network since this TGV function would be larger than to allow the airport access. If preliminary studies have been made on the project and public debates occurred from 2001 to 2003 (Commission Nationale des Debats Publiques [Ref 9]), the final decision of building the airport has been yet taken by French authorities. Indeed they are still evaluating the public utility of the project (source Comité de pilotage [Ref 8]). If the building of this new airport is finally declared as public utility airport is planned to operate by New Toulouse airport If the current traffic of Toulouse Blagnac airport 5.3 millions of passengers in 2002 (source Chambre de Commerce et d Industrie de Toulouse [Ref 6]), this number is forecasted to double by However, its proximity of Toulouse agglomeration limits the airport s potential of development. Figure 17: Forecasts of passenger traffic at Toulouse Blagnac airport (source Chambre de Commerce et d Industrie de Toulouse [Ref 6]) French authorities are then studying the possibility of building a new international airport more distant from Toulouse agglomeration than the current airport and enabling to accommodate 20 millions of passengers. Preliminary studies have then been performed in order to explore several possibilities for the regional services. These studies have: estimated the impact of a new TGV link on the traffic of Toulouse Blagnac airport [Ref 18], analysed the eventuality of development of a small aerodrome located near Toulouse Muret- Lherm [Ref 1] analysed the possibility of complementarity between Toulouse-Blagnac airport and the other regional airports [Ref 17] analysed the possibility of implementing this new airport between Toulouse and Bordeaux [Ref 5] analysed the possibility of implementing the airport on 8 sites close to Toulouse airport [Ref 2] The main conclusions of these studies have been that the building of a new airport located midway between Toulouse and Bordeaux would not be pertinent since it would substantially degrade the quality of air transport service in Midi-Pyrénées and Aquitaine, and since the airport would be located M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 25

26 too far from both cities. This project could have a chance to succeed only at the condition of closing current Toulouse and Bordeaux airports. Figure 18: New airport locations analysed for the future Toulouse airport (Source ADP, SETEC [Ref 2]) In addition the 8 studied sites for the location of this new airports (Figure 18: New airport locations analysed for the future Toulouse airport) have led to a strong general outcry of persons living close to these sites. This numerous protests associated to the slowing down of air traffic increase which happened in and to the perspective of connecting Toulouse with TGV have led the Direction Regionale de l Equipement of Midi-Pyrenees to launch new studies (forecasting the longterm traffic in Midi-Pyrenees taking into account new TGV connections, and analysing the current and future environmental situation at Toulouse-Blagnac airport at a medium-long term) in order to complete the current reflections. In particular, French authorities view the possibility of linking this new airport by a new TGV link Toulouse-Bordeaux New potential airport rail access CDG Express The CDG Express project aims at improving the access of Paris Charles de Gaulle airport by providing a dedicated rail link from Paris Gare de l Est to the airport. Indeed the current connection to the RER B does not totally satisfy passengers due to its complexity and to its inadequacy to the need for luggage transport. Hence 81% of air passengers use road access when coming to the airport. M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 26

27 Figure 19: Modal share of transports for CDG airport access (source CDG Express CDG airport being the second European airport but also the first activity centre in Ile de France, the strong road traffic congestion when approaching the airport is worrying. As a consequence of the air proportion of air travellers (more than 50%) going to Paris centre from CDG, travellers whish improvements of the airport access by rail transport. When planning to link CDG to Paris centre (Gare de l Est) in 15 minutes 4 times per hour, CDG Express aims at answering these wishes. The CDG Express project aims at providing a concrete solution for congestion and pollution problems and for passengers expectations by providing a reliable, easy to access, readable, fast and direct service In addition, CDG Express will allow to unload RER B which is forecasted to be saturated for years to come. The building of CDG Express railway will take into account the impacts on the environment so as to reduce them. CDG Express will use a part of the rail network already existing between Paris and Noisy Le sec on 9Km. Between Noisy Le sec and Tremblay en France a tunnel is planned to be bored, this solution avoiding to expropriate inhabitants and protecting from sonorous and visual nuisances. When going out of the tunnel, 2.5 Km of railways join the TGV network. Globally the CDG Express railway will be 25 Km long. M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 27

28 Figure 20: CDG Express layout (source CDG Express The tunnel construction is planned to start in 2006 and the CDG Express is expected to be launched in The CDG Express will be financed at equal parts by Aéroport de Paris (ADP), Reseau Ferré de France (RFF) et Société National des Chemins de Fer (SNCF) Leslys The future Leslys tramway link is planned to link Lyon saint-exupery airport to Part-Dieu railway station by Leslys will have a quasi-direct link to the airport every 15mn in peak periods, in 25mn of journey time. The 23.2 Km total length of the project will be realised thanks to existing infrastructure, when using railway platform of CFEL (Chemin de Fer de l Est Lyonnais). Leslys project will be realised jointly together with an other tramway project, LEA. LEA and LESLYS will use the same axis but only LESLYS tramways will serve the saint-exupery airport. M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 28

29 Figure 21: LESLYS and LEA Layout (Source Departement du Rhone) Two intermediary stops are planned before the final stop at Lyon Saint-Exupery airport: A stop at Vaulx-en-Velin la Soie allowing a direct connection Leslys with the underground A stop at Meyzieu by a industrial zone Figure 22: Examples of Leslys trains (Source Departement du Rhone) The materiel used on the Leslys link will be similar to the urban tramways. Leslys trains will have a strengthened motorisation allowing a higher speed outside towns. This project has been adopted and launched and the building of the common link with LEA has already started New potential high speed rail links to airports TGV Est The TGV Est project aims at offering a high-performance service to passengers so as to improve the national and European development. The integration of the TGV Est in the French TGV network will allow to: Directly link Paris to the main French city centres Directly link East to North, West and South-west by bypassing Paris M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 29

30 Develop a rail international network with direct links to Germany, Switzerland, Grand Duché of Luxembourg and improve the linking between eastern of France and United-Kingdom This project costing about 3 billions euros, will be financed by 22 partners: the French State, the European Union, The Grand Duché of Luxembourg,, 17 territorial communities, RFF and SNCF. It will improve the journey time between Paris and eastern cities. For instance the journey time will decrease to Reims from 1h25 to 45 minutes, to Metz and Nancy from 2h40 to 1h30, thanks to a TGV speed of 320 Km/h (against 300Km/h today on other TGV links). Figure 23: European Eastern TGV (Source BESIX, SNCF [Ref 4]) France also aiming at improving the integration of its airport in the TGV network, the TGV Est will also link Paris Charles de Gaulle airport. This new TGV connection to the airport will contribute to increase the airport catchments area since for instance people from Reims will only take 45 minutes for acceding CDG airport. This TGV Est, which is currently under construction, is expected to operate by 2007 and constitute a challenge for the SNCF for becoming the leader transport mode in the eastern of France TGV Ouest The TGV Ouest project aims at building a high-speed rail link between Rennes and Le Mans by This new link will allow decreasing the Rennes-Paris train journey time by 37 minutes (1h25 vs. 2h03). One possibility viewed is to link this TGV Ouest to the future new airport Notre-Dame-des- Landes. M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 30

31 Figure 24: TGV Ouest possible layout (Source Ouest France) At the current time the TGV Ouest project is still studied and if the project is adopted, the building is expected to start in TGV Toulouse-Bordeaux In order to integrate Toulouse in the TGV network, the French government studies the possibility to build a TGV link between Bordeaux, Toulouse and Narbonne. If realised, this project will allow linking Toulouse to the Mediterranean and Atlantic coast, as well as to Paris (thanks to the Bordeaux- Toulouse TGV). Figure 25: Bordeaux-Toulouse-Narbonne TGV link (Source Conseil Regional Midi-Pyrénées) This project is then expected to improve economic development (already facilitated by the existing Toulouse-Blagnac airport) in Toulouse as well as on both sides of Pyrénées. The SNCF indeed M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 31

32 evaluates that the potential number of passengers for the TGV would be so large at Toulouse than at Marseille (Source: Mairie de Toulouse [Ref 19]). At the current time, the TGV Bordeaux-Toulouse project belongs to the 50 projects considered for the territory development but is not definitely adopted TGV Rhin-Rhone TGV Rhin-Rhone project aims at providing a link between Germany, Switzerland, France and Spain. This TGV project could help to interconnect several high-speed rail links such as Ruhr-Cologne- Frankfort, Madrid-Barcelona-French border, TGV Languedoc Roussillon, TGV Côte d Azur. This project could then contribute to an equilibrate regional development in Europe. This TGV could also be an asset for Strasbourg by reinforcing its vocation of parliamentary capital city in Europe when positioning it on a big North-South axis. It will allow saving 1h45 when travelling by rail between Strasbourg and Lyon. Figure 26: TGV Rhin-Rhone layout (Source: Association Trans-Europe TGV Rhin-Rhône Méditerranée) This TGV project is decomposed in three phases: East branch from Mulhouse to Dijon West branch crossing Dijon South branch from Dijon to Lyon At the current time, only the East branch project has been adopted and will be built from 2006 to M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 32

33 If the possibility of linking this TGV Rhin-Rhone to the Bâle-Mulhouse airport is still studied, no final decision has already been made TGV Côte d Azur The TGV Côte d Azur project aims at extending the current TGV between Paris and Marseille to Toulon and Nice. It could hence at a long-term period be a part of the high-speed rail link linking Genes to Barcelona. The TGV Côte d Azur project is viewed as being a solution to the forecasted Nice airport saturation by When building a railway station close to Nice airport, this TGV project would allow complementary services between rail and air transport. It would allow setting up a diversion of a part of Paris traffic in order to free slots for more international flights. Although RFF has already performed studies to propose different TGV layouts, and that SNCF estimates that this project could be very profitable ([Ref 24]), the TGV Côte d Azur project is not at the current time already adopted. However it belongs to the priority projects for France attractiveness in a dynamic Europe ([Ref 7]) Interconnection station of TGV at Orly airport This project aiming at building a TGV railway station at Orly airport in order to make a junction between East and West TGV, would allow integrating Orly airport to the French TGV network. This railway station will be a terminus and will constitute the TGV hub in France. Figure 27: SNCF proposition for TGV interconnection at Paris Orly airport (Source: Assemblée Nationale [Ref 3]) The realisation of this project would allow obtaining a fast linking between Orly and CDG airports and would increase the possibility of air/rail connexions for passengers. This project, which is currently still studied, belongs to the CIADT priority projects ([Ref 7]) Freight Express TGV The freight express TGV project aims at building freight terminal in airports connected to a TGV link so as to provide efficient air/rail intermodal services. The stake of this project is to provide a new rail M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 33

34 service intermediary between truck and aircraft. This project could be implemented in CDG airport. DATAR [Ref 10] estimates that there is a strong potential to replace part of the air cargo and mail transport by TGV transport. In 2000, 25% of the air cargo and mail movements at CDG airport were performed in destinations to 5 cities connected to the TGV network: Lyon, Cologne, London, Bordeaux and Liege. DATAR [Ref 10] moreover stresses that freight operators would be ready to prefer rail to air for no urgent merchandise that they transport by truck at the current time. This new system could be favoured by the future speed constraints for trucks that will be applied. The speed of trucks will indeed be reduced from 110 Km/h to 90 Km/h in 2005 on highways while the freight TGV speed should be around 200Km/h. This project, which is considered by the DATAR as being able to play an important role for a durable development of Charles de Gaulle airport, is still studied at the current time. 2.4 French scenarios All the scenarios built in work-package 2 ([Ref 20]) are applied to the particular case of France. Among the future possible intermodal infrastructures only TGV Est and LESLYS are adopted projects and are in building. Other projects are still studied at the current time. That is why if the building of the TGV Est is assumed in all the scenarios, assumptions of the realisation of other possible intermodal infrastructure can change between scenarios Scenario A Scenario assumptions The continuation of the globalisation process and a good economic growth in new and old industrialised countries lead to an increase in world trade but favour inequalities. The increase in the unemployment rate in older industrialized countries, due to delocalisation of firms, leads to an increase in the revenue inequalities in those countries, with social policies kept at today s level, or even curtailed. Since older industrialized countries have to face a rise in inequalities at home, they are not much concerned about helping poorer countries and international economic aid remains at today s level. This leads to more tensions in those countries, due to the high level of poverty and inequalities, and also to more tension between nations. Younger industrialized nations, (like China) also face a rise in inequalities, leading to internal tensions. Poverty is still at a high level in many countries. There is a moderate growth in terrorism, favoured notably by enduring poverty and the rise of inequalities. International tensions are higher than today, but there are no major conflicts. Oil prices being closely related to the economic growth and international geopolitical context, they strongly increase. This leads in turn to higher transport prices. The investments in new telecommunication technologies are maintained. The use of videoconference leads to a moderate demand shift in business passenger travel, since people still have cultural reservations to its use on a large scale. The use of IT technologies and Internet boost the demand for freight transport, since more business is conducted on a world basis (although this is somehow mitigated by the increase in transport prices). As a consequence, leisure passenger demand increases moderately due to high level of economic inequalities between world states, the geopolitical context and a moderate fear of terrorism. On the M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 34

35 other hand, the business passengers as well as the freight demand strongly increase due to the good economic growth and the increase in world trade. In developed countries, and specifically Europe, the environmental concerns are strong Application to France In France, the transport policies are taking environmental concerns into account by taxing road and air transport for their environmental nuisances with the consequence of favouring rail transport development. Hence if the important level of infrastructure investments (possible thanks to the good economic growth and the rising transport demand) allows the building of Notre Dame des Landes and new Toulouse airports, both airports are linked to TGV (TGV Ouest for Notre dame des Landes and TGV Toulouse-Bordeaux for the new Toulouse airport). In addition, all the other HST projects linked to airports are launched (TGV Est, TGV interconnection at Orly, TGV freight express from CDG, TGV Rhin-Rhone, TGV Côte d Azur). Due to the realisation of all these TGV projects improving many airport accesses, only two dedicated airport rail access are built: CDG Express and LESLYS. Airport congestion worsens, but the lack of air capacity is only moderate and Air France does not need to shift most of its short and medium-haul flight on TGV. Air France considers the TGV more as a competitor than as a partner on the French internal market and still operates on most of short and medium haul internal routes in competition with TGV. Nevertheless Air France is aware of its inevitable market share decrease on routes where the TGV journey time is less than 3 hours. On these routes, the airline prefers concluding intermodal agreements with the SNCF rather than totally loose the market. Moreover, Air France also find in these intermodal agreements a way to compete with Low-Cost carriers. Nevertheless, although the interconnection TGV station at Orly airport favours the existence of air/tgv intermodal agreements, the level of cooperation between Full Service Carriers, especially Air France, and high speed train operators is moderate. Other Major airlines missing slots to perform internal flights in France, they should have more incentives to cooperate with rail operators than Air France and will see in intermodal agreements a way to increase their catchments area. In addition, the building of dedicated trains to airports (CDG Express, LESLYS) favours a moderate level of cooperation between rail operators and airlines operating at Lyon Saint-Exupery and CDG airport for the airport access. Besides these air/rail agreements, the development of secondary airports leads to the development of air/bus intermodal agreements in order to favour the airport access by public transport. The freight transport demand increases associated to the new TGV infrastructure for express freight from CDG airport leads to a moderate level of cooperation between freight aircraft operators and high speed train operators. M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 35

36 Transport infrastructure Airport infrastructure TGV Infrastructure Airport access infrastructure Notre-Dame-des-Landes New Toulouse airport TGV Est linked to CDG airport TGV Rhin-Rhone linked to Bale- Mulhouse airport TGV Côte d Azur linked to Nice airport TGV Ouest linked to Notre-Damedes-Landes airport TGV Toulouse-Bordeaux linked to new Toulouse airport TGV interconnection station at Orly airport TGV Freight Express at CDG airport CDG Express Leslys Table 3: Transport infrastructure built in scenario A1 Development of intermodal Air/TGV Moderate agreements for passengers Air/rail for airport access Moderate transport Air/bus for airport access Moderate Development of intermodal Air/rail Moderate agreements for freight transport Air/road Moderate Table 4: Development of intermodal agreements in scenario A Scenario A Scenario assumptions Scenario A2 is similar to scenario A1, the only difference being a weak level of environmental concerns. Indeed, environmental concerns are only moderate in this scenario Application to France When environmental concerns are only moderate, The trend is therefore to cope with rising travel demand by adding extra capacity to airports. The good economic growth allows moreover investing on the creation of Notre-Dame-Des-Landes and New Toulouse airports. If France still invests on rail infrastructure there are weak incentives to invest mainly on extra-capacity on HSR links between cities. French investments on HSR infrastructure only concern already launched projects such as TGV Est. But France has few incentives to invest on extra capacity for high-speed train. France will have more incentives to invest on rail access to airports (CDG Express, LESLYS) and the new Toulouse and Notre Dame des Landes airports are linked to city-centres by dedicated rail links. As the airport capacity increases, Full Services Carriers, and especially Air France, do not need to cooperate with other transport modes for providing alternatives to the lack of airport capacity. The M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 36

37 air/hst cooperation remains then limited and main intermodal agreements concern rail access to airports. Another main development of intermodal cooperation concerns the air/bus agreements concluded both on main and secondary airports. Despite the rising costs of freight road transport, this one still to represent the main freight transport mode. The development of freight transport by air allows the increasing number of intermodal agreements between air and road. Nevertheless, since investments are made in roads, freight continues to travel by road. Transport infrastructure Airport infrastructure TGV Infrastructure Airport access infrastructure Notre-Dame-des-Landes New Toulouse airport TGV Est CDG Express Leslys Dedicated rail link to Notre-Damedes-Landes airport Dedicated rail link to new Toulouse airport Table 5: Transport infrastructure built in scenario A2 Development of intermodal Air/TGV Weak agreements for passengers Air/rail for airport access Moderate transport Air/bus for airport access Moderate Development of intermodal Air/rail Weak agreements for freight transport Air/road Moderate Table 6: Development of intermodal agreements in scenario A Scenario B Scenario assumptions In this scenario, the growing international tensions due to terrorism and increasing inequalities (between world regions, countries, and inside countries) are not resolved, and instability prevails in several world regions. European economic growth is weak, and firms moderately accelerate the delocalisation process. Indeed if European firms expect to reduce their costs of production when delocalising, at the same time, they fear the strong international tensions. This leads to partial deindustrialization of older industrial countries, unemployment and strong inequalities. In the rest of the world, globalisation leads to improvements for some countries, but not for many others, which suffer from political instability and enduring poverty. In the context of this global instability, oil prices increase strongly leading to high transport prices. M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 37

38 Fear of terrorism leads to a decrease in the mobility of business and leisure passengers while the globalisation allows a good level of freight mobility. Increase in leisure and business passengers transport demand is all the weaker that transport prices are high. Only freight transport demand is well oriented, although weak economic growth and high prices dampens transport growth. The low passengers mobility level favours the investments in the developments of new telecommunication technologies. These technologies are heavily used, especially videoconference, since fear of terrorism leads firms to curtail their transport expenditures. The use of IT technologies and Internet boost the demand for freight transport, since more business is conducted on a world basis (although this is somehow mitigated by the increase in transport prices). The association of the low economic growth and the high level of oil prices strongly incite aircraft manufacturers to invest in technologies aiming at decreasing the aircraft fuel consumption and allows the building of cheaper aircraft to build and operate. European full cost carriers bear a strong decrease in business passenger demand. Low cost strongly increase their market shares thanks to the transfer of the leisure and (some) business passenger demand from the FSCs to LCCs, and also thanks to the increase of shorter travels inside the European Union (passengers favour shorter travel, inside safer areas). In a context of economic crisis in Europe the environmental concerns are weak. Despite a strong popular pushing for increasing environmental concerns, the main aim is to find a way to quickly revitalize the economic growth and not to impose new environmental constraints that could impedes this revitalization process Application to France French existing airport, rail and road capacity have to cope with the existing demand, since anyway the weak economic growth does not enable heavy investments. As a consequence, no new big projects on transport infrastructure and airport access are launched meaning that States have weak incentives to invest on rail infrastructure and on airport infrastructure. In this scenario no new airport is built. LESLYS and TGV Est, the only already adopted rail infrastructure project is maintained. HSR also benefits from the increase of shorter travels inside the European Union, but intermodal projects remain limited by the lack of infrastructure development. In general, operators do not feel the need for cooperation, as they are fighting for passengers and market shares. Investments on LESLYS rail access to Lyon saint-exupery airport, favour air/rail intermodal agreements relative to airport access but these agreements remain scarce. Only bus and air manage to moderately develop intermodal agreements on main and secondary airports. The increase in freight transport demand is translated into an increase in the freight transport by truck and sea/waterways, and road/rail intermodal agreements are scarce due to the lack of rail infrastructure development. Nevertheless, the moderate increase in freight demand enables the development of air/road intermodal agreements, even if the number of these agreements remains small. Transport infrastructure Airport infrastructure TGV Infrastructure Airport access infrastructure No new airport TGV Est Leslys M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 38

39 Table 7: Transport infrastructure built in scenario B Development of intermodal Air/TGV Weak agreements for passengers Air/rail for airport access Weak transport Air/bus for airport access Moderate Development of intermodal Air/rail Weak agreements for freight transport Air/road Weak Table 8: Development of intermodal agreements in scenario B Scenario C Scenario assumptions The globalisation process goes on. At the same time, the rise of social and humanitarian movements, as well as the revival of social policies enables a more equal increase and distribution of revenues. International instability is weak, and this allows for a moderate economic growth throughout most regions of the world. This international context associated to a moderate economic growth reduces the tensions on the oil prices. If oil prices increase due to the increase in oil production costs, they are not so volatile than in previous scenarios. As a result, there is a high general passengers mobility level, since more people have access to decent revenue. This moderate economic growth associated to the globalisation process stimulates the freight mobility. The investments in new telecommunication technologies are moderate. The use of videoconference leads to a moderate demand shift in business passenger travel, since people still have cultural reservations to its use on a large scale. The use of IT technologies and of the Internet boosts the demand for freight transport, since more business is conducted on a world basis. This lead to a moderate increase in the demand level for freight transport, while the economic and geopolitical context is mainly favourable to business and leisure passengers whose level of transport demand highly increase. European Major airlines benefit from the high business transport demand but suffer on short haul trip from competition of LCCs and HST. Major airlines concentrate and restructure, and three to four large operators monopolize the medium to long distance markets inside Europe. The congestion at major airports leads to an increase of point-to-point intra-european flights to smaller regional airports (operated by regional carriers and LCCs). In intra-european leisure markets LCCs are dominant. In developed countries, and specifically Europe, the environmental concerns are strong Application to France In France, the transport policies are taking those concerns into account by taxing road and air transport for their environmental nuisances in order to favour rail transport development. The level of infrastructure investments in France is constrained by the moderate economic growth but on the same M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 39

40 time stimulated by the high transport demand and environmental concerns. Investments mainly concern rail infrastructure and no new airport is built. In addition to investments on TGV Est, France also invests on the building of a TGV interconnection station at Orly airport, on the TGV Rhin-Rhone and TGV Côte d Azur (respectively linked to Bale-Mulhouse and Nice airports) and on the building of a TGV terminal at CDG airport for freight express. The TGV Toulouse-Bordeaux is also built as well as TGV Ouest, but both are not connected to airports. The strong environmental concerns also lead France to develop the rail access to existing airports and CDG express as well as LESLYS projects are built. Due to the strong airport congestion, Major FSC carriers take advantage of the HST investment to cope with the strong congestion at major French airports. In particular Air France develops its cooperation with the SNCF or other rail operators by concluding numerous intermodal agreements on internal destinations. This cooperation allows Air France to free slots for operating long-haul flights (using bigger airplanes thus increasing the number of passengers per slot). Air France also uses these intermodal agreements as a way to counter the Low-Cost carriers like Easyjet. More generally there is a high level of multimodal cooperation between full service carriers and high-speed train operators. Moreover, the investments on rail access to main airports, especially in dedicated airport trains CDG Express and LESLYS, favour the existence of intermodal agreements between air and rail operators. The development of secondary airports due to the increasing traffic of low-cost carriers leads to the development of air/bus intermodal agreements in order to favour the airport access by public transport. Application of environmental taxes strongly increases costs of freight road transport, what stimulates freight operators to switch many of their freight transport from road to rail and sea. As a result most of the freight intermodal agreements are concluded between air and rail as well as maritime operators. Transport infrastructure Airport infrastructure TGV Infrastructure Airport access infrastructure No new airport TGV Est linked to CDG airport TGV Rhin-Rhone linked to Bale- Mulhouse airport TGV Côte d Azur linked to Nice airport TGV freight Express at CDG airport TGV interconnection station at Orly airport TGV Toulouse-Bordeaux TGV Ouest CDG Express Leslys Table 9: Transport infrastructure built in scenario C Development of intermodal Air/TGV High agreements for passengers Air/rail for airport access High transport Air/bus for airport access Moderate Development of intermodal Air/rail Moderate agreements for freight transport Air/road Weak Table 10: Development of intermodal agreements in scenario C M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 40

41 3 Application of WP2 scenarios to the Portuguese case 3.1 Current transport situation Transport infrastructure Portugal is located in the most South-western part of Europe, bordering the North Atlantic Ocean and Spain. The country has a total area of km2 (including Azores and Madeira Islands) and 10.5 million inhabitants. The majority of the population is concentrated in the western costal part of the country, mainly in Lisbon and Porto metropolitan areas. Figure 28: Portuguese map (Source: Airports Portugal has 3 major international airports. Lisbon Airport is the main national hub. Porto Airport is the regional airport of the north of Portugal. Faro Airport is a regional tourism airport located in the south of Portugal. A network of smaller airports serves the Azores and Madeira Islands. M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 41

42 Azores Sá Carneiro Airport - Porto (ASC) Flores (AFL) Horta (AHR) Ponta Delgada (AJP) Santa Maria (ASM ) Lisbon Airport (ALS) Faro Airport (AFR) Figure 29: Portuguese airports managed by ANA (Source: ANA) Lisbon Airport is the base for TAP (Portuguese national carrier). In 2003 Lisbon Airport processed a total of 9,63 million passengers and was served by 58 scheduled services airlines (including Freight Airlines). Lisbon Airport traffic distribution by segments is the following: International Movements: 82%; Domestic Movements: 18%; International Passengers: 78%; Domestic Passengers: 22%; Lisbon Airport(2003) Domestic International Transit PASSENGERS MOVEMENTS FREIGHT (Ton.) , ,0 - Table 11: Lisbon airport traffic in 2003 (Source: ANA) M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 42

43 Figure 30 - Lisbon airport road access (Source: ANA) Porto Airport is located 11 Km from the city centre and provides the Northwest Iberian Peninsula with its international connections to the world. Over eight million people live within its catchments area, which extends from the Galicia region in Spain and almost 150 Km to the South of Porto. Porto Airport is a regional feeder of Lisbon and Madrid Airports. It is an International Airport, with daily connections for the main European Airports. In 2003 the Porto Airport processed a total of 2,68 million passengers. In 2003 the airport was served by 32 scheduled services airlines (including Freight Airlines). Porto Airport traffic distribution by segments is the following: International Movements: 83%; Domestic Movements: 17%; International Passengers: 71%; Domestic Passengers: 29%; The volume of passengers who fly between Porto and Lisbon represents an important slice of the traffic, accounting for 20,0% of the Total Terminal Passengers. The Traffic in Porto Airport is widely dominated by the two main national carriers, TAP and Portugália. The only exception is in the Freight traffic, dominated for operators oriented for this type of transport. One of the main destinations besides Lisbon is Paris, as a result of the high volume of ethnic traffic. M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 43

44 Additionally, Paris Airports serve a high number of international destinations, making possible connections to destinations not directly served from Porto. This last characteristic also explains the high demand for London and Frankfurt routes. For an airport, such as Porto, with significant available capacity, makes way for bringing Low Cost Carrier to operate. This strategy needs however to be conciliated with the maintenance of traditional carriers, allowing the integration of the Airport in the Airline Alliances Networks, thus ensuring, high connectivity to the airport. Oporto Airport(2003) Domestic International Transit PASSENGERS MOVEMENTS FREIGHT (Ton.) 3.740, ,9 - Table 12: Oporto airport traffic in 2003 (Source: ANA) Faro Airport is located in the centre of Algarve region and served by an efficient roads network that allows passengers arriving at Faro to reach within 2 hours driving time the most attractive tourism spots in the south of Portugal and Spain. Over inhabitants live within 60 minutes from Faro Airport a number that grows to more than considering Portuguese and Spanish inhabitants. Faro Airport processed 4,7 million passengers in In 2003 the airport was served by 51 scheduled services airlines. Faro Airport traffic distribution by segments is the following: International Movements: 93%; Domestic Movements: 7%; International Passengers: 95%; Domestic Passengers: 5%; Faro Airport(2003) Domestic International Transit PASSENGERS MOVEMENTS FREIGHT (Ton.) 230, ,5 - Table 13: Faro airport traffic in 2003 (Source: ANA) This traffic is the mirror of Algarve tourism. UK passengers represent almost 60% of total passengers, followed by German, Dutch and Irish passengers. Due to the characteristics of the Algarve tourist product, based most on sun and sea holidays the traffic at Faro Airport is highly seasonal. August is the highest demand month with a number of passengers up to 6 times higher than January. Following the trends of European aviation and holiday s market, Faro traffic structure has experienced great changes in the last years. From 13% scheduled passengers in 1996 the airport grows to 48% M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 44

45 scheduled passengers in 2003, and there is a significant decrease of charter passengers. This change is related to the increase of low cost operations at Faro Airport. less than 30 minutes from 30 to 60 minutes from 60 to 90 minutes from 90 to 120 minutes Average free-flow driving times from Faro Airport Figure 31: Average free-flow driving times from Faro airport Taxis and urban bus services are the most common modes of transportation to provide access by public transport to all Portuguese Airports. Lisbon Airport is served by Taxis, integrated in the city buses network and connected by dedicated buses to the city centre and to the outskirts of the city. Porto Airport is connected by dedicated buses to the city centre, to the outskirts of the city and to the north part of Spain (Galicia) as a way of expanding its catchments area. Porto Airport is also integrated in the city buses network and served by Taxis. Faro Airport integrated in the city buses network and served by Taxis. There aren t any railway connections to airports what would be recommend, particularly for Lisbon that has more than 7 million of passengers per year. No integration is provided with regional railway network or national network allowing the airport to be directly connected to the (inter)national railway network. The same happens concerning urban rail infrastructure and underground or LRT. Presently the urban rail/underground/light rail networks are designed to serve main urban passengers flows and are presently not connected with airports. M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 45

46 Airlines TAP strategy is to maintain and develop an important leisure market, assuring scheduled daily connections to Northest Brazil (from Lisbon), with a high percentage of transfer passengers, with origin in other EU countries, like Spain, Italy, Germany and France). Additionally TAP aims to develop the connections with the former Portuguese countries in Africa Angola, Mozambique, Cabo Verde, São Tomé, Guiné Bissau, in order to satisfy the demand of an important ethnical traffic. In the European domestic market TAP will continue to increase the supply of flights to the main European Hubs. The connection between Lisbon and Oporto is expected to stabilize or decrease, and in the future, with the foreseen HST connection between the two cities, this traffic will for sure be affected. The recent membership with Star Alliance, that will come to force in January 2005, will have a certain impact in TAP future strategy. TAP will take advantage of Star Alliance global network, top-flight products and services delivered and of a wide range of frequent flyer travel benefits. The foreseen entrance of TAP in Star Alliance will place Portugal in the map of worldwide alliances. TAP new commitments, as member of a worldwide alliance, compel to give priority to other company members, since there are other companies operating in markets also operated by TAP. In this context, TAP will also be forced "to break" the agreements with Iberia, member of the Oneworld Alliance. In the national plan, this new reality will force TAP to break the code share agreement with PGA - Portugália Airlines for German and British markets, starting to cooperate with Lufthansa and British Midland - both members of Star Alliance. TAP recently started a Rail & Fly service in co-operation with the German Rail Operator (Deutsche Bahn), will allow offering to passengers a new product (Rail & Fly inclusive). Passengers can depart from all German railway stations, by train, free of charge to Frankfurt and Munich and there have connection on TAP flights. This service is expected to be expanded by means of the cooperation with Lufthansa that will allow passengers to check-in luggage in the beginning of the rail trip until the final destination. PGA Portugália Airlines is a Portuguese regional airline. The company is expecting to growth in the EU destinations, mostly at regional airports Toulouse, Bordeaux, Marseille, Valladolid, Valencia, Strasbourg and Stuttgart. Presently the airline is interlining with TAP flights acting as feeder to main international TAP routes. In the near future this situation will change due to the recent TAP strategy of joining Star Alliance. In the same way as TAP, the Portugalia connection between Lisbon and Porto is expected to stabilize and decrease in the future, with the foreseen HST connection. Additionally Portugalia has agreements with Spanish operator Spanair, extending its network of Iberian destinations. PGA offers to passengers with origin in Madrid the possibility to do check-in in the centre of the city, in the subway station of Nuevos Ministerios. Daily, between 16:30 and 21:00, this service is available with a minimum antecedence of 60 minutes for passengers without luggage or 120 minutes with standard luggage (luggage is taken directly to the Airport), concerning the flight departure time National Rail Network The Portuguese rail infrastructure is based in an old conventional rail network that covers the majority M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 46

47 of the country, however its inadequacy to the present geographic population distribution as led to the fact that many of this rail lines aren t presently served by any rail services. The network rail track span equals to the one used by the Spanish conventional network, but different from the rest of Europe which difficult interconnection with the rest of the European rail network. Presently the Portuguese rail network is almost disconnected from the European network and tends to disappear by the successive closure of lines and the consequent diminishing of modal market share. Figure 32: Portugal rail network The Portuguese Rail Infrastructure is managed by REFER. This publicly owned company is responsible for the construction, installation and renovation of the railway infrastructures including the respective studies, plans and development; Command and Control; and the promotion, co-ordination, development and the control of all the activities related with the railway infrastructure National Rail Operator After the restructuring of the Portuguese rail sector, which separated the infrastructure from the operation, CP was released from infrastructure management, and concentrated its activities on passenger and goods transport. The following Business Units have been created by CP: Goods and Logistics Transport Unit - UTML Greater Lisbon Suburban Unit - USGL Greater Oporto Suburban Unit - USGP Intercity and Regional Travel Unit - UVIR Rolling Stock and Traction Unit - UMAT Under this new organisation, the Suburban Units are especially important, as suburban transport represents around 82% of the company s total passengers. On the other hand, high growth potential is M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 47

48 expected in the merchandise area, and UTML is rapidly asserting itself as a highly dynamic operator, capable of gaining the confidence of the market and clients. Figure 33: Portugal rail links managed by CP company In terms of international services CP operates the Sud-Express (Lisbon-Paris), connecting at Hendaye/Irún to the French high-speed train "TGV - ATLANTIQUE", which runs between the Spanish French frontier and Paris. Leaving daily Lisbon-Stª.Apolónia, it arrives at Hendaye in the next day's morning. The TGV-A has its end at Paris (Montparnasse). The other international services from CP are the Lusitânia Hotel Train connecting Lisbon to Madrid and the Porto-Vigo service. M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 48

49 Figure 34: Rail links managed by CP company in Europe Lisbon Metropolitan Lisbon s metro is responsible for the operation of a collective rail transport network, mainly underground, in the city of Lisbon and peripheral areas, as well as the execution of all activities related to the modernization and expansion of the network with a view to the specific purpose of the means of transport, not only in the context of the city but also in the multimodal transport system of which it is a nuclear component. Figure 35: Lisbon metro map M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 49

50 Figure 36: Lisbon metro length and number of stations Metro do Porto is a light rail system integrated in Porto urban transport network. The rolling stock is composed of 72 units with the capacity to transport up to 9 thousand passengers per hour/per direction. The usual configuration has 35 metres in length, is 2,65 metres wide and 3,30 metres high. Its average capacity is of 211 passengers, 80 of which seated. The trains travel at a maximum speed of 80 km/h. Figure 37: Porto metro trains M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 50

51 Porto Airport Current intermodal situation Figure 38: Porto metro map The present level of airport intermodality is low. The existing infrastructures at Portugal do not favour agreements of any kind between air and rail for passenger s intercity transport or land access. No airports integration in both the national rail network and underground urban networks makes the development of intermodal agreements impossible, even if there are market conditions for it. As described, two of the main Portuguese airlines have already some intermodal air/rail agreements (TAP in Germany and PGA in Madrid), which are made possible by the existence of integrated infrastructures and facilities Traffic by transport mode Modal share As well for freight than for passenger transport, road is the transport mode the most increasing its markets share in Portugal, while the rail transport is less and less used due to its great age and inefficiency. The share of travellers using road transport has hence increased by 7% to the detriment of rail between 1990 and 2002, while the market share of air transport remains constant over the period (Figure 39: Transport modal share in Portugal). M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 51

52 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 4% 81% 88% 8% 8% Rail Road Air Figure 39: Transport modal share in Portugal If the road transport mode is preponderant for passenger activity it only represents the second most transport mode for freight activity. Indeed, main of freight tons are carried by sea transport mode. Nevertheless it is important to note that the modal share of sea tended to decrease during the last decade, since 20% of the freight tons seems to be transferred from sea to road between 1990 and 2002 (Figure 40: Freight transport modal share in Portugal). This is in due to the fact that road transport dealt better with the elimination of impediments to merchandise circulation in global terms and specially in EU, in detriment of Sea and Rail modes. Freight transport modal share in Portugal 100% 80% 65% 60% 40% 85% Air Sea Rail Road 20% 35% 14% 0% Figure 40: Freight transport modal share in Portugal Nevertheless see transport mode remains the used transport mode for carrying merchandise to and from other continents than Europe ( Freight traffic volume by transport mode and geographic area of origin/destination) while road transport is often preferred for carrying freight inside Europe. M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 52

53 Freight traffic volum e by transport mode and geographic area of o rig in /d e s tin a tio n 100% 6% 80% 42% 60% 40% 99,6% Other Air Sea road 20% 51% 0% Europe Other Continents Figure 41: Freight traffic volume by transport mode and geographic area of origin/destination The participation of rail mode in International Merchandise Commerce is almost insignificant, due widely to the incompatibility of the Iberian bifool with the European bifool, problem that can be solved in the future, with the execution of the foreseen new rail projects. If freight tons carried by air only represents 0.1% of the total freight volume imported and exported from Portugal, air transport mode is used for carrying very high value merchandise. The average value of carried freight by air is indeed 25 times higher than the freight value carried by road and 120 times higher than the average value of sea freight (Figure 42: Average value (in 1000 /Ton) of imported and exported merchandise. As a result the value of merchandise carried by air represents 5,3% (5.5% in export and 5.2% in import) of the total value of imported and exported merchandise (Table 14: Merchandise Export by transport mode, Table 15: Merchandise - Import by transport mode). M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 53

54 Ave rage value (in 1000 /Ton) of im porte d and e xporte d m e rchandis e s Average value in 1000 /Ton Road Rail Sea Air Figure 42: Average value (in 1000 /Ton) of imported and exported merchandise Merchandise - Export by transport mode Total (a) Road Rail (b) Sea Air Years 10^3 ton 10^3 Eur 10^3 ton 10^3 Eur 10^3 ton 10^3 Eur 10^3 ton 10^3 Eur 10^3 ton 10^3 Eur , ,70 339, ,90 63,60 798, , ,40 7, , , ,80 756, ,50 202, , , ,30 13, , , , , ,40 199, , , ,60 30, , , , , ,40 74, , , ,10 38, , , , , ,00 0,00 0, , ,00 33, ,00 Source: INE, Estat. Dos Transp. E do Comércio Internacional e DGTT Notes: (a) - Difference between Total traffic data (in ton. and Eur.) and the sum of the modes is in result of river way, ignored ways and "others" (b) - In the most recent statistics, is not distinguished the international rail traffic, which is included in "Others" -The supplies to Sea Navigation (except in year 2000) and Air have been deduced Table 14: Merchandise Export by transport mode Merchandise - Import by transport mode Total (a) Road Rail (b) Sea Air Years 10^3 ton 10^3 Eur 10^3 ton 10^3 Eur 10^3 ton 10^3 Eur 10^3 ton 10^3 Eur 10^3 ton 10^3 Eur , ,10 120, ,00 107, , , ,50 34, , , ,20 614, ,90 328, , , ,90 11, , , , , ,40 212, , , ,30 34, , , , , ,10 239, , , ,50 44, , , , , ,00 0,00 0, , ,00 39, ,00 Source: INE, Estat. Dos Transp. E do Comércio Internacional e DGTT Notes: (a) - Difference between Total traffic data (in ton. and Eur.) and the sum of the modes is in result of river way, ignored ways and "others" Table 15: Merchandise - Import by transport mode In addition, air transport mode is generally used for carrying merchandise on far destinations what explains that air merchandise value represents 18% of the total merchandise value carried to and from other continents than Europe. M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 54

55 Freight value by transport mode and geographic area of origin/destination 100% 80% 3% 17% 18% 60% 40% 79% 78% Other Air Sea road 20% 0% Europe 3% Other Continents Figure 43: Freight value by transport mode and geographic area of origin/destination International Freight Transport Exit by Transport Mode and Geographic Area of Destination Year: 2002 Transport Mode Total Road Sea* Air* Others Geographic Area 10^3 t 10^3 10^3 t 10^3 10^3 t 10^3 10^3 t 10^3 10^3 t 10^3 1. Total , , , , , ,00 33, ,00 147, ,00 2. Europe , , , , , ,00 13, ,00 142, , European Union , , , , , ,00 11, ,00 137, , Other Europe 445, ,00 161, ,00 277, ,00 1, ,00 4, ,00 3. Other Continents 2 937, ,00 25, , , ,00 20, ,00 4, ,00 Source: INE: Statistics of International Commerce and transports ; DGTT Others:Includes Railway transport, Mail and fixed transport installations. And self propulsion * : Deduced supplies to maritime and aerial navigation, based in a repartition estimate Table 16: International freight transport Exit by transport mode and geographic area of destination International Freight Transport Entrance by Transport Mode and Geographic Area of Origin Year: 2002 Transport Mode Total Road Sea Air Others Geographic Area 10^3 t 10^3 10^3 t 10^3 10^3 t 10^3 10^3 t 10^3 10^3 t 10^3 1. Total , , , , , ,00 39, , ,80 * * 2. Europe , , , , , ,00 17, , , , European Union , , , , , ,00 9, , , , Other Europe 5 311, ,00 116, , , ,00 7, ,00 3, ,00 3. Other Continents , ,00 32, , , ,00 22, ,00 2, ,00 Source: INE: Statistics of International Commerce and transports ; DGTT Others:Includes Railway transport, Mail and fixed transport installations. And self propulsion * : Includes 2 470,5 *10^3 t of merchandises (natural gas) entrances through gas-line, equal to * 10^3 Table 17: International freight transport Entrance by transport mode and geographic area of origin Road traffic Passenger traffic The majority of passengers in collective road transport in Portugal correspond to passengers in urban services. Considering the Pass.Km indicators the number of national and international excursions is M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 55

56 more relevant. Passengers (10^3) Pass.Km (10^6) Seat.Km (10^6) Load factor Average trip length (Km) Urban services % % ,3% 4,5 Inter-urban services % % ,9% 13,2 Regional express services % % ,3% 198,9 Tourism services % 108 1% ,2% 82,3 Scholar transport % 550 7% ,9% 20,3 Transfers % 176 2% ,7% 69,8 Excursions national+international % % ,9% 362,2 Others % 140 2% ,1% 115,0 Total ,3% 15,1 Lisbon urban services ,9% Porot urban services ,8% Table 18 Portugal collective road transport passengers 2002 (Source: INE) Freight traffic The domestic freight traffic is mainly within the Lisbon Region and from this region to/from the Centre and North of Portugal. origin destination freight tons North Centre Lisbon Region Alentejo Algarve total unloading North Center Lisbon Region Alentejo Algarve total loading Table 19 Portugal domestic freight transport 2002 (Source: INE) Portugal international freight exchanges are mainly with Spain and France, although in terms of ton.km the exchanges of freight between Portugal and Germany and Italy assume particular significance. M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 56

57 Table 20 Portugal European road freight transport 2002 (Source: INE) Average ton trip length (Km) France 1717 Holland 2182 Germany 2359 Italy 2336 UK 2396 Denmark 2773 Spain 696 Belgium 2089 Luxemburg 2272 Sweden 3666 Austria 2912 Total EU 1197 Table 21 Average trip distance for intraeuropean Portuguese freight (Source: INE) Rail traffic Passenger traffic Approximately 89.4% of Portuguese rail passengers were transported in suburban services wile only 10.4% used regional or national services. Only 0.2% of yearly passengers used international rail M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 57

58 transport. When looking at the pass.km figure the regional/national passengers transport assumes roughly a 42% share. Passengers (10^3) Passengers.Km (10^3) Average trip length (Km) Suburban ,4% ,7% 15,3 Regional/National ,4% ,0% 99,1 International 350 0,2% ,3% 258,7 Total ,5 Table 22 Portuguese rail passengers 2002 (Source: INE, CP) Freight traffic The domestic rail freight traffic is mainly between Alentejo region (in the South) and the Lisbon Region. The domestic freight average ton trip length is approximately 318Km. As for international rail freight traffic the most important flow is between Portugal and Spain. origin destination freight tons North Center Lisbon Region Alentejo Algarve total unloading North Center Lisbon Region Alentejo Algarve total loading Table 23 - Portuguese rail freight transport 2002 (Source: INE, CP) Air traffic Passenger traffic In line with international trends Portuguese air traffic is expected to grow in the next 4 years. Lisbon Aiport passengers are expected to by 3.57% per year, Porto by 2.42% and Faro by 3.44%. Air freight is also expected to grow in Lisbon by 6.99% in Porto by 3.5% and in faro by 1.82% M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 58

59 ANA - AEROPORTOS DE PORTUGAL, SA Lisbon Airport AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS, PASSENGERS AND FREIGHT FORECAST TRAFFIC Real 2002 % 02/ % 03/ % 04/ % 05/ % 06/ % 07/06 % 07/02 PASSENGERS (a) SCHENGEN ,8% ,0% ,6% ,7% ,7% ,2% 3,5% INTRA-EU NON SCHENG ,1% ,6% ,0% ,5% ,5% ,5% 2,2% INTERNATIONAL ,0% ,5% ,7% ,8% ,0% ,2% 3,8% TOTAL TERMINAL ,1% ,2% ,3% ,8% ,7% ,1% 3,4% TRANSIT ,5% ,5% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% 6,5% TOTAL COMMERCIAL ,1% ,4% ,3% ,9% ,7% ,1% 3,5% AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS SCHENGEN ,5% ,0% ,2% ,6% ,1% ,4% 4,0% INTRA-EU NON SCHENG ,3% ,0% ,5% ,0% ,0% ,7% 2,6% INTERNATIONAL ,2% ,4% ,0% ,3% ,6% ,0% 3,3% TOTAL COMMERCIAL ,8% ,0% ,6% ,4% ,9% ,3% 3,8% FREIGHT (Ton) ,3% ,0% ,0% ,5% ,0% ,5% 6,0% (a) - Passengers are counted by Origin / Destination criteria. Table 24: Lisbon airport air traffic forecasts (Source ANA) ANA - AEROPORTOS DE PORTUGAL, SA Oporto Airport AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS, PASSENGERS AND FREIGHT FORESCAST TRAFFIC Real 2002 % 02/ % 03/ % 04/ % 05/ % 06/ PASSAGENGERS (a) SCHENGEN ,6% ,0% ,9% ,8% ,6% INTRA-EU NON SCHENGEN ,2% ,0% ,5% ,5% ,0% INTERNATIONAL ,9% ,5% ,5% ,5% ,0% TOTAL TERMINAL ,4% ,7% ,8% ,8% ,6% TRANSIT ,6% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% TOTAL COMMERCIAL ,0% ,2% ,7% ,8% ,6% AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS SCHENGEN ,0% ,3% ,9% ,6% ,4% INTRA-EU NON SCHENGEN ,7% ,5% ,0% ,7% ,2% INTERNATIONAL ,8% ,0% ,3% ,3% ,8% TOTAL COMMERCIAL ,1% ,3% ,6% ,7% ,4% FREIGHT (Ton.) ,8% ,0% ,0% ,5% ,5% (a) - Passengers counted by Origin / Destination criteria. Table 25: Oporto airport air traffic forecasts (Source ANA) M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 59

60 ANA - AEROPORTOS DE PORTUGAL, SA Faro Airport AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS, PASSENGERS AND FREIGHT FORECAST TRAFFIC Real 2002 % 02/ % 03/ % 04/ % 05/ % 06/ PASSENGERS (a) SCHENGEN ,3% ,9% ,9% ,7% ,4% INTRA-EU NON SCHENGEN ,1% ,7% ,6% ,3% ,0% INTERNATIONAL ,3% ,3% ,6% ,8% ,5% TOTAL TERMINAL ,7% ,3% ,7% ,3% ,4% TRANSIT ,6% ,0% ,0% ,0% ,0% TOTAL COMMERCIAL ,5% ,0% ,6% ,3% ,4% AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS SCHENGEN ,1% ,7% ,3% ,1% ,8% INTRA-EU NON SCHENGEN ,9% ,4% ,5% ,5% ,3% INTERNATIONAL ,8% 947-2,3% 948 0,1% 949 0,1% 962 1,4% 978 TOTAL COMMERCIAL ,1% ,6% ,0% ,4% ,6% FREIGHT (Ton) ,2% ,0% ,5% ,5% ,0% (a) - Passengers are counted by Origin / Destination criteria. Freight traffic Table 26: Faro airport air traffic forecasts (Source ANA) As explained in section , in average, the air mode carries, in export and import flows, goods of high unitary value. Thus, in 2002, the average unitary value of the goods carried by air was 52 times higher than the average unitary value of the Portuguese external commerce (28 times in export and 71 in import). Average Value of Exported Merchandise, by transport mode (1000 /Ton) Years Total Road Rail Sea Air Air/Total ,18 17,16 12,55 35, ,03 45, ,73 464,41 153,76 146, ,89 49, , ,61 323,06 401, ,52 21, , ,02 425,02 994, ,42 22, , ,81 na , ,04 28,46 Table 27: Average value of exported merchandise, by transport mode (1000 /Ton) Average Value of Imported Merchandise, by transport mode (1000 /Ton) Years Total Road Rail Sea Air Air/Total ,68 151,67 141,23 18,21 696,16 28, ,19 904,02 365,41 86, ,15 96, , ,88 756,19 191, ,07 58, , , ,61 336, ,50 72, , ,78 na. 299, ,06 70,95 Table 28: Average value of imported merchandise by transport mode (1000 /Ton) M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 60

61 Average Value of Imported+Exported Merchandise, by transport mode (1000 /Ton) Years Total Road Rail Sea Air Air/Total ,01 52,34 93,34 22,80 873,43 31, ,47 661,35 284,80 98, ,50 78, , ,80 546,15 238, ,24 40, , , ,95 440, ,11 48, , ,50 na. 419, ,34 52,04 Table 29: Average value of imported+exported merchandise, by transport mode (1000 /Ton) The merchandise imported in Portugal by air in 2002 were (classification NST/R2): "leathers, wools, clothes, and manufactured articles", with about 29% in volume and 21.3% in value, "vehicles and transport material, machines, engines, disassembled and parts", with 27,8% in volume and 62% in value, "alimentary products and fodder plants", with 19,5% in volume and 1.9% in value, "metallic products", with 5% in volume and 2% in value and "glass and ceramic products", with 1,3% in volume and 2.8% in value (Table 30: Main products carried by air). The merchandise exported in Portugal by air in 2002 were: "leathers, wools, clothes and diverse manufactured products", with 25% in volume and value, "vehicles and transport material, machines, engines, disassembled and parts", also with 25% in volume, but representing 45% in value, "chemical products except tars" with a volume of 10% and a value of about 20% and also "vegetables, congealed and cool fruits", with 12% in volume and approximately 0,4% in value. These statistics show however that products average values are very different, what lead to conclude that air freight transport has potentialities to catch another type of products. Main products carried by Air Import Export t 10 6 esc 10 3 t 10 6 esc 10 3 t 10 6 esc 10 3 t 10 6 esc 2 Vegetables, congealed and Fruits 9, , , , Leathers, clothes, wools and manufactured articles 6, , , , Metallurgic Products 5, , , , Vehicles and transport material, engines, machines, disassembled and parts 4, , , , Chemical products except tars 2, , , , Alimentary products and fodder plants 1, , , , Metallic products 0, , , , Glass and Ceramic products 0, , , , TOTAL 31, ,00 32, ,00 24, ,00 29, ,00 Table 30: Main products carried by air M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 61

62 As could be inferred from the analysis of Table 16: International freight transport Exit by transport mode and geographic area of destination and Table 17: International freight transport Entrance by transport mode and geographic area of origin, the air freight transport has special vocation for medium and long distances, what could be favourable of multi-modal agreements scenarios. 3.2 Future potential transport infrastructure HSR network The Portuguese HSR network is one of the most important future transport infrastructures to be built in Portugal. This new infrastructure will have a high impact in the in the present intercity travel demand within Portugal and in the connections to Spain and the rest of Europe. The development of the Portuguese HSR network will be gradual and contemplates five major connections Lisbon-Porto, Porto-Vigo, Aveiro-Salamanca, Lisbon-Madrid, and Evora-Faro-Huelva. According to the announced plans this network will be connected with the main Portuguese Airports (existing or new Lisbon Airport and Porto Airport), therefore setting the essential conditions for the development of intermodal agreements Lisbon-Porto With a total estimated investment of 3.6 billion Euros this line is due to built between 2006 and The services will be operated at speeds from 300 to 350Km/h, bringing the Lisbon/Porto train travel time to 60 minutes. This line will have direct interfaces with Lisbon (existing or new) and Porto International Airports, which are essential for intermodal travel. This line will also improve accessibility to Lisbon Airport from regions north of Lisbon and accessibility to Porto Airport from regions south of Porto. The Lisbon-Porto HSR will have a high impact in modal shares between the two major Portuguese cities. Air travel will be less competitive than rail, so the demand for passengers in the air mode is expected to reduce. It could also be expected that some passengers in connecting flights via Lisbon will start using the rail for the connection between Porto and Lisbon, with or without air/rail agreements. The estimated demand is 13.5 million passengers per year with a market share of 24% of total Lisbon/Porto travel (in 2025 with the complete HSR network). M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 62

63 Porto-Vigo The expected investment for this HSR is 1.3 billion Euros and is expected to be built between 2006 and The annual number of passengers will be 2.1 million, corresponding to 25% of Porto/Vigo travel market share (in 2025 with the complete HSR network). This HSR connection will be operated at speeds between 220 and 250Km/h, making it possible to travel between the two cities in 40 minutes. It connects Porto to the Spanish northwest rail network and will have an interface with Porto Airport, improving the accessibility to Porto Airport from regions north of Porto and Galicia Aveiro-Salamanca This line is expected to be constructed between 2010 and 2015, and to have 1.8 million passengers per year (in 2025 with the complete HSR network) and will comprise a 2.1 billion Euros investment. The operating speeds will be between 200 and 250 Km/h. With this connection travel between Porto and Madrid will take 2h 45 minutes, and it will be an important passengers and freight connection with France via Irun. This line will interface with Aveiro sea harbour Lisbon-Madrid With a total investment of 1.6 billion Euros the Lisbon-Madrid connection is to be built between 2006 and The forecasted number of passengers is 5.3 million per year, corresponding to approximately 48% of the Lisbon-Madrid travel market share (in 2025 with the complete HSR network). The services will be operated at 350Km/h, connecting Lisbon to Madrid in 2h 45 minutes. This line is expected to interface with Lisbon Airport (existing or new), and will improve the M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 63

64 accessibility to Lisbon Airport from regions east of Lisbon Evora-Faro-Huelva The Evora-Faro-Huelva HSR involves a 2.5 billion Euros investment and will be built, according to plans between 2013 and The travel time from Lisbon to Faro will be approximately 1h 20 minutes and Faro/Huelva 30 minutes. It will connect to Seville-Madrid HSR and interface with Faro Airport. The total demand will be 1.6 million passengers per year, equivalent to 13% of the market share (in 2025 with the complete HSR network). Passengers Freight Figure 44: HSR network in Lisbon metro Metropolitano network has an ongoing expansion project that will include by 2007 a direct connection to Lisbon Airport. According to the plans the Red Line will be extended to Lisbon Airport thus providing underground access to this Airport. M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 64

65 3.2.3 Porto metro By 2005 Porto Airport, managed by ANA, will be integrated in the new Porto Light Rail system, that will integrate the Airport in the city and regional transport network, and ensure the connection with the conventional rail network. 3.3 Portuguese scenarios Portugal has a diversified service-based economy. Economic growth has been above the EU average for much of the past decade, but fell back in GDP per capita stands at 70% of that of the leading EU economies. Since 1998, Portugal presented a strong rhythm of real GDP growth, higher than in the European Union (UE15), thus continuing its process of real convergence, but with a gradual deceleration, that was expressed, already in the second half of 2002, in an evolution slightly smaller than the EU average. According to the Plan of Stability and Growth presented by the Ministry of Finances in December 2002 (updated for period ), the evolution of the Portuguese GDP will not be more satisfactory than the EU average, before Concerning the per capita GDP, it presented, between 1998 and 2000, a fast regression relative to the communitarian average, becoming practically stabilized, around 69% of the communitarian average. In the following graph (Figure 45: Evolution or Portugal GDP growth rate) are presented the GDP growth patterns, that are compatible with the global employment rate growth and the variants related with the productivity behaviour, concerning three scenarios (Low, Medium and High). M3 Systems Restricted Version 1.0 Page 65