Exhibit 1: Campbell-Hill Aviation Group, LLC, Slide Deck

Transcription

1 Exhibit 1: Campbell-Hill Aviation Group, LLC, Slide Deck

2 Geocentric Location of Dubai International 4 hr Flight 8 hr Flight Dubai 1/3 2/3 Over 2/3 of the world s population lives within 8 hours flight from Dubai 1/3 lives within 4 hours Source: Emirates Analysis Exhibit 1 1

3 Dubai s Proximity to the World s Most Rapidly Growing Countries Real GDP Growth (2014) 10% or more 6% - 10% 3% - 6% 0% - 3% less than 0% no data Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2014) Exhibit 1 2

4 Number of Carriers Operating Domestic and International Routes at Dubai International Airport Compared With Major Legacy Carrier Hubs Number of Carriers Operating Domestic and International Routes DXB JFK LAX MIA ORD SFO IAD DFW IAH EWR SEA DEN PHX ATL MSP DTW CLT DCA LGA SLC Source: Innovata Schedules, July 2015, via Diio. Exhibit 1 3

5 Frequency Share of Legacy Carriers and Their JV Partners Operating Domestic and International Routes at Their Hub Markets Compared to Emirates Share at Dubai International Carrier Share of Domestic and International Frequencies 100% 90% 80% 70% 89% 84% 84% 83% 82% 80% 78% 76% 74% 73% 72% 67% 60% 50% 52% 49% 48% 46% 46% 46% 40% 37% 30% 20% 21% 10% 0% CLT ORD PHX DFW IAH ATL DTW MSP SLC EWR MIA IAD DEN SFO DCA JFK LGA LAX SEA DXB Source: Innovata Schedules, July 2015, via Diio. Exhibit 1 4

6 $ $ Emirates Profit Share History (Millions) $300 $250 $209.6 $200 $181.0 $150 $100 $48.4 $36.7 $42.7 $47.6 $31.3 $24.5 $50 $4.9 $7.6 $4.3 $7.3 $8.9 $8.9 $ Source: Emirates financial reports Note: Historic AED profit share translated at 3.67 AED-to-USD. No profit sharing prior to Exhibit 1 5

7 ICAO Safety Scores Effective Implementation 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 97% 94% 94% 98% 96% 97% 80% 83% 84% 82% 60% 40% 20% 0% Legislation Organization Licensing Operations Airworthiness Accident Investigation Air Navigation Services Airports United States United Arab Emirates Source: ICAO Flight Safety Information Exchange (FSIX), 2007 audit period, UAE progress validation period, Exhibit 1 6

8 Emirates Dividends vs. Capital Injections (Millions) $4,000 $3,500 $3,363 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $218 $0 Dividends Capital Injections Source: Emirates financial reports Note: AED dividends and capital injections translated at 3.67 AED-to-USD exchange rate. Exhibit 1 7

9 $12,000 $10,000 Income before taxes and After Special Items 1/ (Millions) Legacy Carriers Increasing Profitability ( ) +81% $10,676 $1,972 $8,000 $6, % $5,884 $4,168 $1,014 $4,000 $2,000 $0 $2,574 $599 $407 $1,568 $2,195 $4,536 $2, Airlines Total ($ Million) Percent Change 2012 $2, $5, % 2014 $10, % United American Delta 1/ Net income after adjusting for special items and before income tax. Source: Delta Air Lines, Delta: Delivering Growing Value, J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation and Industrials Conference, March 3, 2015, page 25; Delta Air Lines, Investor Day 2013, December 11, 2014, page 46; United Airlines Announces Full-Year and Fourth Quarter 2014 Profit, January 22, 2015, United Announces Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2013 Profit, January 23, 2014; American Airlines Group Reports Record Fourth Quarter and Full Year Profit, January 27, 2015, American Airlines Group Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2013 Financial Results, January 28, American Airlines Group reports fourth quarter and full year 2013 financial results, January 28, Exhibit 1 8

10 Legacy Carriers Increasing Profitability (1st Quarter 2015 vs. 1st Quarter 2014) Income before taxes and After Special Items 1/ (Millions) $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 -$500 -$1,000 $366 $407 $444 ($485) +562 % 3 Airlines Total ($ Million) Percent Change Q $2, % Q $366 $2,424 $585 $1,245 $594 Q Q United American Delta 1/ Net income after adjusting for special items and before income tax. Source: Delta Air Lines, Delta Air Lines Announces March Quarter Profit, April 15, 2015; United Airlines, United Airlines Announces Record First Quarter Profit, April 23, 2015; American Airlines Group Reports Record First Quarter Profit, April 24, Exhibit 1 9

11 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Legacy Carriers Operating Margins Delta American US Airways United Continental Source: U.S. DOT, Form 41 data, via Diio. Exhibit 1 10

12 Growth in the Legacy Carriers International Capacity While Reducing Domestic Capacity ASMs1 Index (CY 2000 =100) 140 September 11, Recession Percent Change Since 2000 Legacy International +29% Legacy Domestic -29% 60 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun Months Ended 1/ ASM = Available Seat Mile. Source: Innovata schedules, via Diio. Excludes commuter affiliates. Exhibit 1 11

13 Increase in U.S. Flag Passenger Fare per Mile International Routes Compared to Domestic Routes (Year 2000 through 12 Months Ended February 2015) Passenger Fare per Mile (Index 2000=100) 160 September 11, Recession Percent Change Since International +40% Domestic +13% Dec '00 Jun '01 Dec '01 Jun '02 Dec '02 Jun '03 Dec '03 Jun '04 Dec '04 Jun '05 Dec '05 Jun '06 Dec '06 Jun '07 Dec '07 Jun '08 Dec '08 Jun '09 Dec '09 Jun '10 Dec '10 Jun '11 Dec '11 Jun '12 Dec '12 Jun '13 Dec '13 Jun '14 Dec '14 12-Months Ended Source: All A4A reporting carriers from the Airlines for America, Monthly Passenger Yield Report, March Exhibit 1 12

14 Legacy Carriers and JV Partners Share of Transatlantic Market Transatlantic Passenger Share Other 18% Gulf Carriers 6% Source: U.S. DOT, T-100 sector data, YE Q3 2014, via Diio. Legacy Carriers + JV Partners 76% Exhibit 1 13

15 Number of Transatlantic Passengers by Carrier, 2003 and 2014 U.S. Transatlantic Onboard Passengers (Millions) CY 2003 YE Sep 2014 Legacy Carriers JV Partners Gulf Carriers Other Note: Legacy carriers includes all carriers they merged with. Source: U.S. DOT, T-100 sector data, YE Q3 2014, via Diio. Changes Since 2003 Legacy Carriers = Million (42%) JV Partners = Million (25%) Legacy Carriers+JV Partners = Million (33%) Gulf Carriers = Million Other Carriers = Million (55%) Total Transatlantic = Million (45%) Exhibit 1 14

16 Transatlantic Load Factor to/from U.S. (YE Q3 2014) Load Factors on Transatlantic Routes: Emirates vs U.S. Legacy Carriers 100% 90% 80% 84% 85% 80% 82% 79% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Emirates American Delta United Legacy Carrier Average Source: U.S. DOT, T-100 data, for the year ended September 30, 2014, via Diio. Exhibit 1 15

17 Comparison of Transatlantic Load Factors in 2003 and 2014 Transatlantic Load Factor to/from U.S. 90% 80% 82% 83% 79% 80% 82% 79% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Legacy Carriers Legacy Carriers + JV Partners Total Transatlantic 2003 YE Q Source: U.S. DOT, T-100 data, for calendar year 2003 and the year ended September 30, 2014, via Diio. Exhibit 1 16

18 CY 2014 Operating Income 1/ (Dollars in Millions) Legacy Carriers Profitability by International Divisions $5,000 $4,000 $3,431 $847 $3,000 $2,000 $1,107 $3,171 $949 $1,375 $251 $353 $243 $1,000 $264 $1,341 $962 $868 $0 -$587 -$366 -$485 ($1,000) Legacy Carriers Combined Delta United American/US Airways Latin Atlantic Pacific 1/ Operating income is operating revenue less operating expenses. Excludes items such as taxes, interest income and expenses and capital gains and losses. Source: U.S. DOT, Form 41 reports, P12-Profit and Loss Statements, via Diio. Exhibit 1 17

19 CY 2014 Operating Income 1/ (Dollars in Millions) $12,000 Legacy Carriers Profitability by All Divisions $10,000 $9,566 $847 $8,000 $3,171 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 $4,265 $251 $2,926 $1,341 $6,135 $353 $2,375 $962 $243 $868 $3,158 $1,977 $1,000 -$587 -$366 $264 -$485 ($2,000) Legacy Carriers Combined Delta United American/US Airways Latin Domestic Atlantic Pacific 1/ Operating income is operating revenue less operating expenses. Excludes items such as taxes, interest income and expenses and capital gains and losses. Source: U.S. DOT, Form 41 reports, P12-Profit and Loss Statements, via Diio. Exhibit 1 18

20 Historical Jet Fuel Prices Spot Jet Fuel Price per Barrel $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Jan-02 Aug-02 Mar-03 Oct-03 May-04 Dec-04 Jul-05 Feb-06 Sep-06 Apr-07 Nov-07 Jun-08 Jan-09 Aug-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-11 Dec-11 Jul-12 Feb-13 Sep-13 Apr-14 Nov Spike = $163 per Barrel $130 per Barrel Note: Includes U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel prices. Source: U.S. Energy Information. Administration, Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products. Exhibit 1 19

21 Legacy Carriers Atlantic Division Profitability $3.5 $3.0 $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 $0.0 ($0.5) ($1.0) ($1.5) ($2.0) Atlantic Operating Income (Billions) American/ US Airways/ America West Delta/Northwest United/Continental Legacy Combined Year Source: U.S. DOT, Form 41 reports, P12-Profit and Loss Statements, via Diio. CY 2014= $3.2 Billion +1094% Since 2003 Exhibit 1 20

22 U.S. Flag Passenger Fare per Mile (Yield) by International Division (Year 2000 through 12 Months Ended February 2015) Passenger Fare per Mile (Index 2000=100) Recession Percent Change since 2000 Atlantic +52% Pacific +39% September 11, 2001 Latin America +16% Dec '00 Jun '01 Dec '01 Jun '02 Dec '02 Jun '03 Dec '03 Jun '04 Dec '04 Jun '05 Dec '05 Jun '06 Dec '06 Jun '07 Dec '07 Jun '08 Dec '08 Jun '09 Dec '09 Jun '10 Dec '10 Jun '11 Dec '11 Jun '12 Dec '12 Jun '13 Dec '13 Jun '14 Dec '14 12-Months Ended Note: Atlantic region includes Indian Subcontinent routes. Source: All A4A reporting carriers from the Airlines for America, Monthly Yield Report March Exhibit 1 21

23 Growth in Traffic After Emirates Entry Boston MIDT Bookings - All Airlines % Increase After Emirates Entry Bookings +134% +53% +17% +28% 180, , , , , ,000 53, ,687 16,097 80,000 60,000 40,000 60, ,139 92,590 13,252 20, ,333 9,349 6,974 47,486 DXB Indian Subcontinent Africa ASEAN Passengers Before Emirates Entry Increase After Emirates Entry Source: MIDT bookings analysis from Emirates. Exhibit 1 22

24 Growth in Traffic After Emirates Entry Dallas/Ft. Worth MIDT Bookings All Airlines % Increase After Emirates Entry +75% +84% +27% Bookings 180, , , , ,000 70, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,227 12,900 84,376 19,495 47,327 8,321 11,174 DXB Indian Subcontinent Africa Passengers Before Emirates Entry Increase After Emirates Entry Source: MIDT bookings analysis from Emirates. Exhibit 1 23

25 Growth in Traffic After Emirates Entry Seattle MIDT Bookings All Airlines % Increase After Emirates Entry +163% +48% +24% Bookings 120, , ,000 35,473 80,000 60,000 40,666 40,000 73,807 7,851 20,000 11,212 32,815 6, ,270 DXB Indian Subcontinent Africa Passengers Before Emirates Entry Increase After Emirates Entry Source: MIDT bookings analysis from Emirates. Exhibit 1 24

26 Growth in Traffic After Emirates Entry Washington Dulles MIDT Bookings All Airlines % Increase After Emirates Entry +8% +18% +12% +27% Bookings 450, , ,000 46, , , , ,000 43, , , , ,000 84,857 5,948 50,000 78, ,041 31, , ,780 0 DXB Indian Subcontinent Africa ASEAN Passengers Before Emirates Entry Increase After Emirates Entry Source: MIDT bookings analysis from Emirates. Exhibit 1 25

27 Washington Dulles to Dubai International Flight Leg Monthly Passengers 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 United Airlines Traffic and Emirates Traffic Passenger Traffic on IAD-DXB Flight Legs Source: IATA Origin-Destination Statistics United Emirates Exhibit 1 26

28 Growth of Indian Economy, Emirates Commitment to the Market, Legacy Carriers and Their JV Partners Capacity Weekly Seats Trillions of U.S. Dollars 140,000 Weekly Seat Capacity to Indian Subcontinent vs. Indian Subcontinent GDP (In current U.S. Dollar) Financial Crisis Ebola / ISIS , ,000 80,000 60,000 40, , Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Legacy Carriers JV Partners Emirates Indian Subcontinent GDP Source: Innovata Schedules Data via Diio, The World Bank Exhibit 1 27

29 Online U.S.-Indian Subcontinent City-Pairs Operated by Legacy Carriers New York (Newark) Source: Innovata Schedules data, via Diio (April 2015) Delhi Mumbai Exhibit 1 28

30 SEA SFO LAX Online U.S.-Indian Subcontinent City-Pairs Operated by Emirates ORD JFK BOS IAH DFW IAD Source: Innovata Schedules data, via Diio (April 2015) Dubai PEW ISB SKT LHE KHI DEL DAC AMD BOM CCU HYD BLR MAA COK TRV CCJ CMB MLE Exhibit 1 29

31 Comparison of Indian Destinations Served by Emirates to Destinations Served by Legacy Carriers & JV Partners Combined Indian Destinations Served by Emirates Indian Destinations Served by Legacy Carriers & JV Partners Delhi Delhi Ahmedabad Kolkata Mumbai Hyderabad Mumbai Hyderabad Pune Kozhikode Kochi Bangalore Chennai Bangalore Chennai Trivandrum Source: Innovata Schedules Data, via Diio (Typical week of May 2015) Exhibit 1 30

32 Total U.S.-Indian Subcontinent Market, Bookings by Carrier Group 2009 to 2014 U.S.-Indian Subcontinent MIDT Bookings Change Since 2009 Number of MIDT Bookings 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , % (2014 vs. 2009) ,323 +1,068, ,109-72,701 Legacy Carriers JV Partners Gulf Carriers Other Source: MIDT bookings analysis from Emirates. Note: Indian Subcontinent region includes India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Maldives. Exhibit 1 31

33 Dropped International Routes Delta Air Lines: International Routes Discontinued Between July 2008 and July 2009 Daily International Departure Change Daily International Seat-Departure Change , , ,579 Transatlantic Other International Source: Innovata Schedules via Diio, July 2008 and July Exhibit 1 32

34 Total U.S.-ASEAN Market, Bookings by Carrier Group 2009 to 2014 U.S.-ASEAN MIDT Bookings 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000, % (2014 vs. 2009) 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Legacy Carriers+JV Partners Gulf Carriers Other Source: MIDT bookings analysis from Emirates. Note: ASEAN countries include Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Exhibit 1 33

35 U.S.-ASEAN MIDT Bookings 3,000,000 Total U.S.-ASEAN Market, Bookings by Carrier Group 2009 to ,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Legacy Carriers+JV Partners Gulf Carriers Other Source: MIDT bookings analysis from Emirates. Note: ASEAN countries include Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Exhibit 1 34

36 Comparison of African Destinations Served by Emirates to Destinations Served by Legacy Carriers Legacy Carriers Current African Destinations Emirates Current African Destinations Algiers Tunis Casablanca Cairo Dubai Dakar Accra Lagos Johannesburg Dakar Khartoum Abuja Addis Ababa Abidjan Lagos Accra Entebbe Nairobi Luanda Johannesburg Cape Town Dar es Salaam Lusaka Harare Durban Seychelles Mauritius Source: Innovata Schedules Data, via Diio (Typical week of May 2015) Exhibit 1 35

37 U.S.-Africa MIDT Bookings 1,600,000 U.S.-Africa Bookings by Carrier Group and Legacy Carriers Committed Capacity Legacy Carrier Seats 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 1,000, , , , , , , , , Legacy Carriers+JV Partners Gulf Carriers Legacy Carrier Seat Capacity Source: MIDT Bookings analysis from Emirates, and Innovata Schedules via Diio, nonstop seats only. Exhibit 1 36

38 Milan-New York Bookings by Carrier Group Before and After Emirates Entry Milan Malpensa New York O&D MIDT Bookings 300, ,948 7, ,000 Total MXP-NYC +79% 65, , , ,265 14, Legacy Carriers+ JV Partners +46% 100, ,933 50, ,695 0 January-September 2013 Before Emirates Entry January-September 2014 After Emirates Entry Legacy Carriers+JV Partners Gulf Carriers Other Source: MIDT Bookings analysis from Emirates. Note: New York (NYC) market includes JFK, EWR and LGA. Exhibit 1 37

39 Monthly Bookings by Carrier Group and Legacy Carriers Capacity Milan-New York Milan Malpensa-New York MIDT Bookings 45,000 Legacy Carriers/ JV Partner Seats 45,000 40,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 Emirates launches MXP-JFK 35,000 30,000 25,000 25,000 20,000 20,000 15,000 15,000 10,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Legacy Carriers+JV Partners Gulf Carriers Other Legacy Carriers/ JV Seat Capacity * New York (NYC) market includes JFK, EWR and LGA. Source: MIDT Bookings analysis from Emirates and Innovata Schedules via Diio, nonstop seats only. Exhibit 1 38

40 Legacy Carriers One Time Benefits From the U.S. Government Since 2002 Billions $120 $104.7 Billion $100 Bankruptcy PBGC Liability = $ 10.4 Billion Bankruptcy Lost Pensions = $ 7.4 Billion $80 Bankruptcy Unsecured Debt Eliminated = $ 33.1 Billion $60 $40 Bankruptcy Long Term Debt Elimination = $ 25.0 Billion $20 $0 Value of Slots Held by 3 Legacy Carriers War Risk Insurance Paid by Government Air Transportation Safety and System Stabilization State Public Financing Net Loss Carryforward Tax Savings = $ = $ = $ = $ = $ Billion Billion Billion Billion Billion Source: Campbell-Hill analysis Exhibit 1 39

41 Pension Liability Assumed by U.S. and Employee Pension Value Lost Company Participants Date PBGC Took Over Trusteeship Pension Assets (in millions) Benefit Liabilities (in millions) Underfunded Amount (in millions) Estimated PBGC Liability (in millions) Employee Pensions Lost (in millions) Delta 1/ United 1/ United 6/ United 3/ United 5/ US Airways 2/3/4/ US Airways 1/ 12/31/ /26/2005 6/30/2005 6/30/2005 5/23/2005 2/1/2005 3/31/2003 $1,700 $2,800 $1,500 $1,400 $1,300 $1,700 $1,200 $4,700 $5,700 $3,800 $3,300 $4,000 $4,200 $3,700 $3,000 $2,900 $2,300 $1,900 $2,700 $2,500 $2,500 $920 $1,400 $1,733 7/ $1,432 7/ $2,035 7/ $2,300 $600 $2,080 $1,500 $567 $468 $665 $200 $1,900 Total $17,800 $10,420 $7,380 1/ Pilots Plan 2/ Employees Plan 3/ Flight Attendants Plan 4/ IAM Plan 5/ Ground Employees Plan 6/ Management, Administrative and Public Contact Defined Plan 7/ PBGC estimated liability for United Ground Employees, Flight Attendants and Management Groups was $5.2 billion. Liability prorated across groups based on proportion of underfunding. Note: Northwest Airlines and American Airlines emerged from bankruptcy keeping their pension plans. Source: Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation press release Delta Pilots, January 5, 2007, press release of United Airlines Pilots, December 30, 2004, press release of other United Airlines groups, April 22, 2005, press release of US Airways Pilots, April 1, 2003, press release on other US Airways groups, February 2, Exhibit 1 40

42 Legacy Carriers Unsecured Debt Relief in Chapter 11 Reorganization Unsecured Debt Not Recovered Delta (Delta+Northwest) United American (American+US Airways) $6.6 $26.5 * Total $33.1 *No non-recovered amounts found in disclosure statements. Source: UAL Corporation, Disclosure Statement, US Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois, September 7, 2005, page 74; Delta Air Lines, Disclosure Statement, U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York, February 7, 2007, p. 146; Northwest Airlines Corporation, U.S. Bankruptcy Court Disclosure Statement for the Southern District of New York, March 30, Exhibit 1 41

43 Long Term Debt and Lease Obligation Relief by Legacy Carriers Billions $30 $25 $20 $25.0 Billion American (American+US Airways) $5.7 Billion $15 United $8.9 Billion $10 $5 Delta (Delta+Northwest) $10.4 Billion $0 Long-Term Debt and Capitalized Leases Note: Includes only bankruptcies since 2000 and current portion of long-term debt. Does not include other claims in the bankruptcy proceeding or pension liability write-downs. Source: US Airways Group, Inc SEC Form 10-Q, March 31, 2003, US Airways Group, Inc SEC Form 10-Q, June 30, 2002, US Airways Group, Inc SEC Form 10-Q, September 30,2005, UAL Corporation, SEC Form 10-Q, March 31, 2006, UAL Corporation, SEC Form 10-Q, September 30, 2002, Northwest Airlines Corporation, SEC Form 10-Q, June 30, 2007, Northwest Airlines Corporation, SEC Form 10-Q, June 30, 2005, Delta Air Lines, Inc SEC Form 10-Q, June 30, 2007, Delta Air Lines, Inc, SEC Form 10-Q, June 30, Exhibit 1 42

44 Take-Off and Landing Slot Subsidies Received by Legacy Carriers Estimated Value of LGA/DCA/JFK/EWR Slots by Legacy Carriers (Billions) $2.5 Slot Controlled U.S. Airports $2.0 $2.0 $2.0 $1.7 $1.5 $1.4 $1.0 $0.5 $0.0 JFK EWR LGA DCA Source: Campbell-Hill analysis of recent slot transactions and FAA, Slot Holdings Reports for EWR, LGA, DCA, and JFK, November 14, Values per slot calculated using current market data from the recent divestiture of slots from AA/US (See U.S. DOJ, Proposed Final Judgment in the American/US Airways Merger, Case 1:13-cv CKK, Document 159, Filed 03/10/14, pages 1,6 and 7). Exhibit 1 43

45 Take-Off and Landing Slot Subsidies Received by Airline Estimated Value of LGA/DCA/JFK/EWR Slots (Billions) $8 $7 $6 $5 $7.1 Billion United $2.0 Billion $4 $3 American $2.8 Billion $2 $1 $0 Delta $2.3 Billion Estimated U.S. Slot Market Value Source: Campbell-Hill analysis of recent slot transactions and FAA, Slot Holdings Reports for EWR, LGA, DCA, and JFK, November 14, Values per slot calculated using current market data from the recent divestiture of slots from AA/US (See U.S. DOJ, Proposed Final Judgment in the American/US Airways Merger, Case 1:13-cv CKK, Document 159, Filed 03/10/14, pages 1,6 and 7). Exhibit 1 44

46 Subsidies Received Under The Air Transportation Safety and System Stabilization Act Act Components Post 9/11 Legacy Carriers (in millions) Other Carriers (in millions) Total (in millions) Immediate Cash Grants $3,589 $1,411 $5,000 Loan Guarantees $1,280 $370 $1,650 Total $4,869 $1,781 $6,650 Source: Congressional Record, Air Transportation Safety and System Stabilization Act; US Airways Group, Inc SEC Form 10-K, 2002, UAL Corporation, SEC Form 10-K, 2002, Northwest Airlines Corporation, SEC Form 10-K, 2002, Delta Air Lines, Inc. Annual Report, 2002, Continental Airlines, SEC Form 10-K, AMR Corp, SEC Form 10-K 2002; America West, Inc, SEC Form 10-K, Exhibit 1 45

47 Airlines U.S. Government Loan Guarantees Received by Airline Dollar Amount (in millions) US Airways America West Airlines American Trans Air Evergreen International Airlines Frontier Airlines Aloha Airlines World Airways $900 $1,280 $380 $149 $90 $63 $41 $27 Total $1,650 Source: Air Transportation Stabilization Board press release US Airways, Inc. February 11, 2003, America West Airlines, December 28, 2001, American Trans Air, Inc. September 26, 2002, Evergreen International Airlines, Inc. December 20, 2002, Frontier Airlines, Inc. November 5, 2002, Aloha Airlines, Inc. November 5, 2002, World Airways, Inc. April 23, Exhibit 1 46

48 Value of Subsidies Related to War Risk Insurance in Calendar Year 2002 Estimated 2002 Continental Airlines 2002 anticipated additional insurance cost 1/ Continental Airlines share of Major U.S. Airlines System ASMs 2/ $85 million 11.36% Estimated 2002 additional cost for Major U.S. Airlines 3/ $748 million Based on the assumption that the premium for additional war risk insurance (per ASM) declined at a constant rate until the program expired in 2014, the cumulative benefit of government subsidized insurance was $4.7 billion. 4/ 1/ Continental Airlines, Inc. SEC Form 10-K, December 31, / Form 41 data for FY 2002, Major U.S. Airlines include American, Continental, Delta, Northwest, United and US Airways 3/ $85 million divided by 11.36% 4/ Declining rate applied to U.S. Legacy Carriers systemwide ASMs from U.S. DOT Form 41 data. Exhibit 1 47

49 State Public Financing for Legacy Carriers Action Year Dollar Amount (in millions) Minnesota public financing package for Northwest Indiana, City of Indianapolis tax breaks for United Pennsylvania Trainer Refinery Complex for Delta City of Phoenix incentives for building in Phoenix for America West/US Airways City of Fort Worth tax incentive for operations center for American Pennsylvania revenue guarantee for Delta PIT-CDG nonstop flight $761 $320 $30 $15 $7 $5 Total $1,138 Sources: Minnesota Legislative Reference Library, Northwest Airlines and The State of Minnesota: A Chronology, New York Times, States Pay for Jobs, but It Doesn t Always Pay Off, November 10, 2003, Delta Air Lines press release, Delta Subsidiary to Acquire Trainer Refinery Complex, April 30, 2012, Suburban Phoenix East Valley Tribune, AmWest behind on tax-funded land deal, October 7, 2011, Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Council approves $6.5 million tax incentive for American Airlines, June 10, 2014, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Delta s flight to Paris not taking off financially, March 13, Exhibit 1 48

50 U.S. Carriers Also Receive $24 Billion in Annual Benefits from the U.S. Government Billions $25 $24.4 Billion Benefits of Antitrust Immunity = $ 4.3 Billion $20 $15 Airport Cost Reduction Through Federal Grants Savings from Municipal Bonds Security Fees Paid by Passengers = $ = $ = $ 2.3 Billion Billion Billion Airport Cost Reduction Through PFCs 1/ = $ 2.8 Billion $10 Cost Savings from Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Reorganization = $ 11.3 Billion 2/ $5 $0 Note: Figures on this chart relate to all U.S. carriers unless specifically noted. 1/ PFC s (Passenger Facility Charges) are collected from passengers by airports to pay for capital projects. These are authorised by FAA. 2/ Includes only Legacy Carriers. Note: Annual figures are based on the latest period available. Exhibit 1 49

51 Antitrust Immunity for Legacy Carriers International Alliances with Foreign Carriers Delta Air France-KLM, Alitalia, Czech and Korean Virgin Atlantic, Air France-KLM, and Alitalia Virgin Australia United Air Canada, Brussels, Lufthansa, Swiss, Austrian, SAS, and LOT Air New Zealand Asiana All Nippon Airways COPA American British Airways, Iberia, Finnair and Royal Jordanian Lan Airlines and Lan Peru Japan Air Lines Source: U.S. DOT, Airline Alliances Operating with Antitrust Immunity (updated 7/14/14). Exhibit 1 50

52 Multivariate Regression Model to Estimate Annual U.S. Carrier Revenue Change From Antitrust Immunity In order to estimate the value of reduced competitors to U.S. flag carriers three regression models were calibrated (one each for the Atlantic division, the Pacific division and the Latin America division). The data period includes 92 rolling 12 month periods starting in Q and ending in Q (latest period available). The dependent variable is Inflation Adjusted Scheduled Passenger Revenue (in 2014 dollars using the CPI price deflator) and the independent variables are (1) Number of Competitors, (2) a dummy variable to control for the impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks, and (3) price of jet fuel to control for revenue increases due to higher jet fuel prices. A competitor was defined as an airline that had at least 1% share of onboard passengers between the U.S. and the region in a 12-month period. In the analysis, a competitor was eliminated one year after the final ATI order was published by DOT, or one year after a merger was completed. Passenger and revenue data were extracted from U.S. DOT, T-100 and Form 41 databases. The U.S. Department of Energy is the source of fuel cost data. All coefficients in the three regression equations are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. The predicted values (and p-values) for annual U.S. carrier revenue gain per lost competitor are: Atlantic = $177 million (p-value = ) Pacific = $343 million (p-value =0.0060) Latin = $327 million (p-value <0.0000) To calculate total benefits from Antitrust Immunity (ATI), the predicted annual revenue gain is multiplied by the number of competitors lost due to ATI (and excluding the number of competitors lost due to merger). Note that the Atlantic value of $177 million per year is supported by a statement made by British Airways following its ATI with American. The Company estimated total synergies per year of approximately $235 million. See: Exhibit 1 51

53 Revenue Created for U.S. Carriers by Antitrust Immunity Dollar Figures in Millions of 2014 Dollars Total U.S. Carriers Annual Revenue Benefits from ATI Atlantic Pacific Latin America Average Annual Revenue Value to U.S. Carriers of One Lost Competitor /1 $177 9 $343 $327 Number of Lost Competitors Due to ATI 6 2 $1,593 $2,058 $654 $4,305 Actual Year Ended 3 rd Quarter 2014 Scheduled Passenger Revenue (Millions): $37,138 ATI Benefit (Share of Revenue) 12% Note: Legacy Carriers account for 96% of all U.S. flag revenue in the Atlantic, Pacific and Latin America divisions. Therefore, it is estimated that $4.1 billion of annual ATI revenue benefit is enjoyed by Legacy Carriers. 1/ Determined by regression models Transatlantic Competitors Lost through ATI include: KLM, Lufthansa, SAS, Air France, Alitalia, Swiss, British Airways, Iberia and Virgin Atlantic Transpacific Competitors Lost through ATI include: JAL, Qantas, Air New Zealand, Asiana, ANA, and Korean Latin America Competitors Lost through ATI include: LAN and Copa. Note: The value in the Transatlantic is similar to British Airways forecast synergy value of approximately $235 million per year (See article below) Exhibit 1 52

54 (Billions) $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Total Legacy Carrier Obligations Relieved as a Result of Chapter 11 Reorganization $33.1 Billion $25.0 Billion American (American+US Airways) $5.7 Billion United $8.9 Billion United $26.5 Billion Delta (Delta+Northwest) $10.4 Billion Delta (Delta+Northwest) $6.6 Billion Long-Term Debt and Capitalized Leases Unsecured Creditor Obligations Source: US Airways Group, Inc SEC Form 10-Q, March 31, 2003, US Airways Group, Inc SEC Form 10-Q, June 30, 2002, US Airways Group, Inc SEC Form 10-Q, September 30,2005, UAL Corporation, SEC Form 10-Q, March 31, 2006, UAL Corporation, SEC Form 10-Q, September 30, 2002, Northwest Airlines Corporation, SEC Form 10-Q, June 30, 2007,Northwest Airlines Corporation, SEC Form 10-Q, June 30, 2005, Delta Air Lines, Inc SEC Form 10-Q, June 30, 2007, Delta Air Lines, Inc, SEC Form 10-Q, June 30, UAL Corporation, Disclosure Statement, US Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois, September 7, 2005, page 74; Delta Air Lines, Disclosure Statement, U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York, February 7, 2007, p. 146; Northwest Airlines Corporation, U.S. Bankruptcy Court Disclosure Statement for the Southern District of New York, March 30, Exhibit 1 53

55 U.S. Government Grant Funding Received by Airports 1/ Since 2003 Receipts (Millions) $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,749 $1,948 $2,242 $2,500 $2,515 $2,518 $2,709 $2,624 $2,289 $2,241 $2,300 $1,000 $500 $ / Excluding the portion of AIP funding paid directly by airlines. Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Airports (ARP), Certification Activity Tracking System (CATS), Form 127. Exhibit 1 54

56 Airport Losses Absorbed by State and Local Government Agencies 2003 to 2012 (Billions) $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $ Revenues Expenditures Net Loss Total Revenues of $165 Billion minus Expenditures of $204 Billion = Net Loss of $39 Billion Note: Revenues include hangar rentals, landing fees, terminal and concession rents, sale of aircraft fuel and oil, parking fees at airport lots, and other charges for use of airport facilities or for services associated with their use. Expenditures include the provision, operation, construction, and support of airport facilities serving the public at-large on a scheduled or unscheduled basis (including the regulation of the airline industry, if applicable). Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Annual Survey of Government Finances ( ). Exhibit 1 55

57 Interest Rate Savings (Millions) Estimated Savings on Airport Debt Issued as Tax Free and/or Secured Municipal Bonds Since 2003 $1,800 $1,600 $1,528 $1,571 $1,589 $1,611 $1,400 $1,200 $1,302 $1,338 $1,216 $1,251 $1,132 $1,154 $1,184 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ Note: Calculated by multiplying the outstanding debt on airport bonds by 2%. It is assumed that the average yield spread between tax free municipal bonds and comparable taxable bonds averaged 200 basis points over the period. Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Airports (ARP), Certification Activity Tracking System (CATS), Form 127. Exhibit 1 56

58 Passenger Security Fee Collections Since 2003 Passenger Aviation Security Fee Collections (Millions) $2,500 $2,087 $1,960 $1,878 $1,879 $2,000 $1,920 $1,866 $1,856 $1,960 $1,756 $1,808 $1,848 $1,500 $1,600 $1,200 $1,000 $500 $ Note: Includes only fees collected from passengers. Does not include fees paid by airlines. Source: Transportation Security Administration ( Exhibit 1 57

59 Passenger Facility Charge (PFC) Funding Received by U.S. Airports Since 2003 PFC Receipts (Millions) $3,000 $2,500 $2,719 $2,708 $2,770 $2,795 $2,652 $2,683 $2,490 $2,537 $2,375 $2,000 $1,902 $2,156 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $ Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Airports (ARP), Certification Activity Tracking System (CATS), Form 127. Exhibit 1 58

60 The Legacy Carriers Annual Savings Due to Chapter 11 Reorganization Benefits (Billions) $6.0 $5.0 $5.4 Delta United American Totals (Billions) $3.1 $5.4 $2.8 $4.0 Total $11.3 $3.0 $3.1 $2.8 $2.0 $1.0 $0.0 Delta United American Note: Delta Air Lines Exits Bankruptcy, Reuters, 4/30/2007 (Edward Bastian was CFO at the time). Delta and United are estimated using cost per ASM changes in salaries/benefits, rentals and depreciation from the full year before bankruptcy to the full year after emerging from bankruptcy multiplied by YE Q ASMs. Since the AA bankruptcy is so recent, this analysis includes management projections of savings and Form 41 data. In addition, US Airways latest bankruptcy is included in the American number using the method described for DL/UA above. Source: Campbell-Hill analysis of Form 41 reports and Turnaround Management Association, Exhibit 1 59

61 Value of Cabotage Protection to Legacy Carriers Markets CY 2014 Passenger Revenue (Millions) 1. East Coast 1/ Midwest 2/ to from West Coast 3/ 2. East Coast 1/ Midwest 2/ to from Hawaii 4/ 3. West Coast 3/ to from Hawaii 4/ $5,966 $457 $533 Total $6,956 1/ Includes ATL, BOS, EWR, IAD, JFK, MCO and MIA 2/ Includes DFW, IAH and ORD 3/ Includes LAX, SEA and SFO 4/ Includes HNL Exhibit 1 60

62 Fiscal Year Dollars (in Millions) $4,000 U.S. Department of Defense Payments to CRAF Participants $3,000 $3,160 $2,995 $2,880 $2,837 $2,819 $2,841 $2,904 $2,425 $2,511 $2,000 $1,599 $2,099 $1,000 $705 $ Fiscal Years Cumulative CRAF Payments = $ Billion Source: June 2013 GAO Report to Congressional Committees, GAO Exhibit 1 61

63 Value Created by U.S. Government Sanction of Corporate Account Lock-Ups Annual International Passenger Revenues 1/ passenger revenue is from business travelers 2/ are airline corporate accounts 3/ (Delta + United + American) Estimated that 25% of international Estimated that 43% of business passengers Independent foreign flag carriers like Emirates have no access to $4 billion of annual purchases by business travelers Billions = $ 35.6 = $ 8.9 = $ 3.8 1/ U.S. DOT Form 41, 12 months ended September 30, / U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, National Travel and Tourism Office, Profile of Overseas Travelers to the United States: 2013 Inbound and 2013 U.S. Resident Travel: Business and Convention Travel Report. Business Traveler Revenue = (4,934,000 Overseas Business Visitors x $2471 average fare) + (4,875,000 U.S. Business and Convention Travelers x $2095 average fare) divided by Total Traveler Revenue = (32,038,458 Overseas Visitors x $1558 average fare) + (29,015,000 U.S. Travelers x $1370 average fare). 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, National Travel and Tourism Office, 2013 U.S. Resident Travel: Business and Convention Travel Report. Exhibit 1 62

64 Annual Value of International Markets in the GSA Fly America Program Fiscal Year Estimated Dollar Amount (in millions) $559 $563 Total $1,122 Note: Assumes 40% of passengers fly on the YCA fare and 60% on the capacity controlled contract fare in markets where both fares are offered. Assumes no traffic on Business Class fares. Source: Analysis of contract data from the GSA City Pair Program website. Exhibit 1 63

65 U.S. Open Skies Partners (As of June 2015) Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic and Business Affairs Exhibit 1 64

66 Legacy Carriers Share of Routes to Sixty-Three Open Skies Countries With Direct or One-Stop Service to the U.S International Frequency Share: Legacy Carriers and JV Partners* vs. Foreign Airlines Austria Bahrain Barbados Ghana Paraguay Saint Kitts Uruguay Poland Finland Jordan Netherlands United Kingdom Switzerland France Spain Japan Costa Rica Italy Honduras Aruba Australia Germany Guatemala Nicaragua Jamaica Canada Belgium Nigeria Denmark Brazil Israel Thailand Colombia Peru Chile Ireland Kuwait El Salvador Singapore Panama India Korea Senegal Norway Portugal Sweden Chinese Taipei UAE New Zealand Guyana Cape Verde Cook Islands Ethiopia Iceland Latvia Morocco Pakistan Qatar Samoa Saudi Arabia Suriname Turkey Uzbekistan 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% U.S. Legacy Carriers U.S. JV Partners Other US Airlines Foreign Airlines Source: OAG Schedules Data (Typical week of Feb-2015) Note: JV partners include all JV carriers defined in the White Paper in addition to SAS, Finnair, Royal Jordanian and LOT Polish Exhibit 1 65

67 Passengers Arriving on Emirates Fly U.S. Domestic Airlines to Over 200 U.S. Destinations 2014 Emirates Feed Passengers to U.S. Cities on Domestic Carriers Source: Emirates analysis Exhibit 1 66

68 Emirates Has Contributed Over 775,000 Feed Passengers to U.S. Legacy Carriers Through Interline Agreements in the Past Five Years Through interline arrangements, Emirates has provided over 775,000 feed passengers to U.S. legacy carriers producing $133 million in financial benefits over five years Combined with their European JV partners, feed passengers were almost 800,000 generating financial benefits of $146 million Emirates Passenger Feed to U.S. Legacy Carriers and Their JV Partners Passengers Revenue (USD mil) American 398,843 $66.2 Delta 191, United 184, Legacy Carrier Total 775, JV Partners 16, Total Interline Benefits to Legacy Carriers+JV Partners 792,387 $145.5 Source: Emirates analysis Exhibit 1 67

69 Emirates Feeder Traffic Share to U.S. Markets ( ) Other 435,788 32% Legacy Carriers 919,076 68% Source: Interline and departure control system data sourced from Emirates. Note: Includes separately ticketed passengers who availed the through check-in facility to their respective final destination. Exhibit 1 68

70 Economic Impact Methodology Description Traffic Analysis: U.S. Department of Transportation, T-100 Onboard Passengers, via Diio LLC for the 12 months ended September 2014 (latest available) was used for each Emirates market between the U.S. and Dubai /1. Onboard passengers include both local O&D passengers and connecting passengers. Emirates onboard passengers were then assigned to five world regions (Middle East, Africa, India, Southeast Asia, Other Asia) using MIDT data via TravelPort for the 12 months ended September The regional passengers were then split into two categories: Passengers that originated in the U.S., and Passengers that originated in the international region (visitors). Direct Visitor Spending Impact Analysis : Direct travel spending values per visitor by region (excluding international airfares) were derived using U.S. Department of Commerce ITA Office of Travel and Tourism data (adjusted based on travel characteristics for each origin region). Most of the economic impact was derived from the 506,624 annual visitors Emirates carried to the U.S. These visitors spend an average of $3,670 per trip while in the U.S., for which jobs in industries such as hotel/lodging, restaurants, entertainment, retail, and ground transportation are dependent. The average direct travel spending per international visitor is : Middle East ($2,823), Africa ($2,785), India ($4,854), and Other Asia ($2,250) /2. U.S. originating passenger spending includes taxis, parking and concessions at the U.S. airports (approximately 1% of the total impacts). 1/ The following routes were included in this analysis: DXB to/from BOS, DFW, IAD, IAH, JFK, LAX, ORD, SEA and SFO. BOS and ORD were annualized since these services did not have a full year of Emirates service in the data period. JFK-Milan is not included in the analysis. 2/ India is higher than the others because the average visitor from India stays longer in the U.S. Exhibit 1 69

71 Economic Impact Methodology Description Total Economic Impact Analysis: Direct visitor spending is aggregated by industrial sector: Accommodations/Lodging Foods & Beverages Entertainment & Recreation Ground Transportation Retail Domestic Air Transportation Total economic impacts (including indirect and induced effects) were based on national-level IMPLAN multipliers specific to each of the visitor spending sectors. Total impact was measured in terms of U.S. output (sales), employment, and earnings calculated by combining aggregate visitor spending with IMPLAN multipliers (for 2013) IMPLAN s I-RIMS multipliers are derived from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Benchmark Input-Output tables customized based on other national-level government sources (e.g., Bureau of Labor Statistics employment and earnings data, and Bureau of the Census Annual Survey of Retail Trade). The IMPLAN economic impact model and associated multipliers are widely used in aviation and other impact analyses, including approval for use by the U.S. government (e.g., U.S. Department of Agriculture for analysis of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). Exhibit 1 70

72 The Economic Impact of Emirates Flights to the United States Emirates U.S. Route /1 Boston Annual Spending by Visitors to the U.S. (Millions) Annual Total U.S. Economic Output/Sales /2 (Millions) U.S. Jobs Annual U.S. Employee Earnings (Millions) (1) (2) (3) (4) $187 $469 4,004 $162 Chicago $153 $383 3,262 $132 Dallas/Ft. Worth $124 $310 2,639 $107 Houston $143 $358 3,062 $124 Los Angeles $270 $677 5,774 $234 New York $463 $1,161 9,916 $401 San Francisco $222 $557 4,740 $192 Seattle $167 $419 3,567 $145 Washington D.C. $130 $326 2,787 $113 Total $1,859 $4,660 39,751 $1,610 Total per Daily Roundtrip Flight /3 $186 Million $466 Million 3,975 $161 Million 1/ Includes the impact of all onboard passengers (includes passengers connecting within the U.S. to/from all Emirates Dubai flights. 2/ Includes multiplier effects for final demand output in the United States. 3/ Based on 10 daily roundtrip flights in current schedule (excludes Milan). Note: Includes data for flights operated for the 12 months ended September Exhibit 1 71

73 Foreign Direct Investment in the United States from Regions Served by Emirates (Millions of U.S. Dollars) Total Growth United Arab Emirates $1,039 $2,136 $2,253 $747 $1,451 $2,514 $1,804 $11,944 74% Other Middle East $13,989 $14,097 $15,924 $16,061 $18,012 $17,667 $19,362 $115,112 38% Middle East $15,028 $16,233 $18,177 $16,808 $19,463 $20,181 $21,166 $127,056 41% Africa $1,034 $1,817 $1,225 $2,265 $3,295 $3,810 $1,968 $15,414 90% India $1,671 $2,820 $2,555 $4,102 $5,323 $6,365 $7,118 $29, % Pakistan $52 $57 $60 $76 $79 $70 $97 $491 87% Sri Lanka $8 $14 $9 $10 $15 $17 $44 $ % South Asia (major) $1,731 $2,891 $2,624 $4,188 $5,417 $6,452 $7,259 $30, % Malaysia $464 $450 $439 $338 $911 $679 $635 $3,916 37% Singapore $12,151 $25,801 $20,757 $21,517 $16,819 $18,310 $19,760 $135,115 63% Thailand $334 $187 $199 $158 $123 $366 $439 $1,806 31% Vietnam $5 $14 $19 $59 $17 $40 -$276 -$ % Philippines $125 $60 $131 $103 $115 $266 $268 $1, % Southeast Asia (major) $13,079 $26,512 $21,545 $22,175 $17,985 $19,661 $20,826 $141,783 59% Combined - All Areas $30,872 $47,453 $43,571 $45,436 $46,160 $50,104 $51,219 $314,815 66% Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Exhibit 1 72

74 Almost 60% of Legacy Carriers Total Frequencies on Transatlantic Routes is Operated by Old B757/767s Legacy Carriers Transatlantic Frequency Share by Aircraft Type Average Age of B757/ 767s is 19.1 years Other 41% B757/ % Source: Innovata Schedule Data, via Diio, April 2015; Flightglobal / Ascend fleet data, via Diio, as of April Exhibit 1 73

75 Legacy Carriers Transatlantic Routes Operated by B757 and B767 Aircraft As of April 2015 Source: Innovata Schedule Data, via Diio, April Exhibit 1 74

76 Average Age of B757/767 Aircraft Operated by Legacy Carriers Carrier Total Units In-Service Stored/ Parked Average Age (yrs ) of In-service Fleet Delta B757s United American Total Delta B767s United American Total Source: Flightglobal / Ascend fleet data, via Diio, as of April Exhibit 1 75

77 Skytrax 2015 World Airline Rank and Average Fleet Age Rank Carrier Avg. Fleet Age (Yrs) Remarks 1 Qatar Airways Singapore Airlines Cathay Pacific Airways Turkish Airlines Emirates Etihad Airways ANA All Nippon Airways 10.3 U.S. JV Partners 8 Garuda Indonesia EVA Air Qantas Airways 8.1 U.S. JV Partners 12 Lufthansa 11.1 U.S. JV Partners 13 Austrian 15.7 U.S. JV Partners 14 Swiss Int'l Air Lines 12.7 U.S. JV Partners 15 Air France 11.3 U.S. JV Partners 16 Virgin Australia 5.4 U.S. JV Partners 20 British Airways 12.5 U.S. JV Partners 21 Japan Airlines 9.4 U.S. JV Partners 26 Virgin America 6.0 Other U.S. Carriers 27 Air Canada 13.7 U.S. JV Partners 28 KLM 10.8 U.S. JV Partners 37 Virgin Atlantic 12.5 U.S. JV Partners 45 Delta Air Lines 17.1 U.S. Legacy Carriers 46 Aeroflot jetblue Airways 8.1 Other U.S. Carriers 54 Brussels Airlines 14.3 U.S. JV Partners 56 Iberia 9.0 U.S. JV Partners 60 United Airlines 13.6 U.S. Legacy Carriers 65 Alaska Airlines 9.8 Other U.S. Carriers 67 Southwest Airlines 11.7 Other U.S. Carriers 74 Alitalia 9.3 U.S. JV Partners 78 American Eagle n.a. U.S. Legacy Carriers 79 American Airlines 12.9 U.S. Legacy Carriers Source: Skytrax / Centre for Aviation Fleet Data (as of February 10, 2015) Exhibit 1 76

78 Legacy and Regional Carrier Domestic ASM Capacity Has Decreased by 20% Since December 2000 While the Total Market Has Remained Frozen Domestic Capacity- Available Seat Miles (Billions) Percent 800 Change Since % of Domestic ASMs CY 2000 CY 2007 YE Q Low Cost Carrier 14% 26% 31% Legacy 80% 62% 57% Regional 6% 12% 12% Legacy/Regional 86% 74% 69% Legacy Regional -29% +108% -20% 100 Low Cost Carrier +127% 0 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Source: Innovata schedules. 12-Months Ended Exhibit 1 77